MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY HO CHI MINH CITY NGUYEN THI MINH THU FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROFITABILITY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN VIETNAM FROM 2009 – 2018 GRADUATE THESIS MAJOR: FINANCE - BANKING CODE: 52340201 SUPERVISOR MSC VU THI HAI MINH HO CHI MINH CITY, 2020 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY HO CHI MINH CITY NGUYEN THI MINH THU FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROFITABILITY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN VIETNAM FROM 2009 – 2018 GRADUATE THESIS MAJOR: FINANCE - BANKING CODE: 52340201 SUPERVISOR MSC VU THI HAI MINH HO CHI MINH CITY, 2020 i ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to provide an analysis of factors affecting the profitability of 28 commercial banks in Vietnam from 2009 to 2018 using Pooled OLS, FEM, REM, FGLS methods The scope of the study is to aim at finding and analyzing the degree of impact of specific bank factors, industry-specific factors and macro-economic factors on the profitability of 28 commercial banks in Vietnam The study cannot avoid the limitations because of the selection may not fully reflect the content and the meaning of all factors affect profitability or may not fully represent all commercial banks in Vietnam Understanding the factors influencing the performance of the bank not only receives much attention from scholars, but also from shareholders, administrators and authorities, because it assists policy makers and administrators in formulating strategies and policies to ensure the stability and sustainability of banking system's operation, as well as to avoid the risk of banking system crisis Assessing the profitability of a commercial bank always raises questions, because of their diversity Many researchers consider that profitability can provide a picture of the bank's business results Obtained result showed that ROA of commercial banks in Vietnam was affected positively and statistically significant by bank size, equity ratio, loan ratio, deposit ratio, income diversification ratio, credit growth rate and GDP; while nonperforming loan, operating cost and exchange rate have negative impact on ROA In contrast, liquidity, credit to GDP and inflation not affect ROA and are not statistically significant Keywords: commercial banks, profitability, ROA, bank size, nonperforming loan, equity ratio, liquidity ratio, loan ratio, deposit ratio, income diversification ratio, operating cost, credit to GDP, credit growth rate, GDP, inflation, exchange rate ii SUMMARY International economic integration is an indispensable trend and an objective requirement for any country in the current development stage However, this process, in addition to creating certain advantages and opportunities for the country participating in the integration, also put these countries before significant difficulties and challenges The roadmap of international economic integration puts enterprises of developing countries in general, the commercial banking system in particular and the new business environment with fierce competition pressures, unbalanced competitors Currently, Vietnam is a member of the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group, the Asian Development Bank and the Joint Forum Economic Cooperation Asia-Pacific, ASEAN Vietnam participates in multilateral free trade agreements with ASEAN countries, South Korea, Japan and China Vietnam has also signed with Japan a bilateral economic partnership agreement For banking and monetary system, the integration process is associated with the process of liberalizing financial market, bringing many opportunities, but also many challenges From that practice, this thesis will analyze and introduce factors affecting the efficiency in the operation of Vietnam’s commercial banking system in the current integration period, especially the factors affecting the profitability of commercial banks in Vietnam, from which to give practical recommendations to improve the operational efficiency of commercial banking system, is an urgent issue This thesis analyses factors affecting the profitability of 28 commercial banks in Vietnam from 2009 to 2018 using regression methods such as Pooled OLS, FEM, REM, FGLS; thereby provide some recommendations to improve the profitability of commercial banks in Vietnam In order to further analyze the impact of Vietnam's macro environment and banking industry on the profitability of Vietnamese commercial banks, the author decided to consider three more independent variables, namely exchange rate, credit iii to GDP and credit growth rate along with two familiar macro factors which are inflation and GDP growth The table below summarizes related previous studies and theoretical framework of this thesis Table 0.0.1: Related previous studies and theoretical framework Theory/Related previous studies Subjects are mentioned Commercial banks Definition of commercial banks Definition of bank profitability Profitability Measurement Market power theory Efficiency theory Agency cost theory It explains the profit of firms to be increased from the achievement of more market power It explains other aspect of bank profitability which can be generated from better management and business efficiency This theory focuses on the use of financing structure Previous studies and related law, decree - Law: Consolidated documents No 20/2018/VBHN-NHNN, the State Bank of Vietnam - Previous studies: Getter, (2016), Tariq et al (2014), Tuyishime et al (2015), Kalpana & Rao (2017), Mongid et al (2012), Erina & Lace (2013) Wang & Wang (2015), Bikker & Vervliet (2017), Iacobelli (2017), Yuksel et al (2018), Muya & Gathogo (2016), Niresh & Velnampy (2014), Sehrish, Irshad & Khalid (2010), Pastory & Marobhe (2015), Kohler (2013) Book: Principals of finance, Scott, B & Eugene, F B (2015) Bain (1951) Demsetz (1973) Jensen & Meckling iv Signaling theory Foreign studies National studies of the firms to drive the managers and the investors to solve free cash flow issues This theory emphasizes that the firms with profitable condition and high business Arrow (1972) and Spence performance can supply (1973) the market and the customers with positive information Almaqtari et al (2018), Yao et al (2018), Yuksel et al (2018), Kawshala & Panditharathna (2017), Nuhiu et al (2017), Pastory & Marobhe (2015), Sehrish Gul, Faiza Irshad and Khalid Zaman (2011), Abuzar (2013), Usman, D (2014), Khaled, M et.al (2016), Sufian, F & Noor-Mohamad-Noor, A (2012), Al-Omar, H & Al-Mutairi, A (2008) Nguyen (2018), Nguyen et al (2018), Le et al (2017), Nguyen, D (2017), Phan & Phan (2014), Vo & Batten (2014), Vu & Nahm (2013), Nguyen Thanh Phong (2015), Phan Thi Hang Nga (2011) Source: Author’s synthesis The research model proposed specifically as follows: Where: βo : constant term β1, , β14: Regression coefficients for the independent variables i: bank; t: year of observation; μi: error term/ residual term Dependent variables: ROA: return on assets (%) Independent variables (bank-specific factors): SIZE: bank size (billion VND) NPL: non-performing loan (%) LIQ: liquidity ratio (%) v EQR: equity ratio (%) LOAN: loan ratio (%) DEP: deposits ratio (%) IDR: income diversification ratio (%) OPR: operating cost ratio (%) Independent variables (industry-specific factors): CRD: credit to GDP CGR: credit growth rate Independent variables (macro-economic specific factors): INF: inflation GDP: gross domestic product ER: exchange rate between VND and USD The thesis performs: (1) Descriptive statistics; (2) Correlation analysis; (3) Model estimation (Pooled OLS, FEM, REM); (4) Model choice (Between Pooled OLS and FEM, between FEM and REM); (5) Model diagnostics (Autocorrelation diagnostics, multicollinearity diagnostics, heteroskedasticity diagnostics); (6) Model fix; (7) The prediction of residuals; (8) Normality test of residuals The result of model choice analysis showed that both FEM and REM were more appropriate than Pooled OLS Furthermore, FEM was proven as more appropriate than REM However, the author identified that there was autocorrelation issue in the dataset The result of heteroskedasticity check revealed that FEM model did face up with this issue To fix the model problems, the author conducted FGLS regression technique and here is the result: vi However, while some independent variables are in line with the expectations of the author, there are some independent variables that contrary to the author's initial expectations Detailed is shown as below: Table 0.0.2: Expectations and research results of independent variables Code SIZE NPL LIQ EQR LOAN DEP IDR OPR CRD CGR GDP INF ER Expected Results signs Bank size + + Non-performing loan Liquidity ratio No impact Equity ratio + + Loan ratio + + Deposit ratio + + Income diversification ratio + + Operating cost ratio Credit to GDP + No impact Credit growth rate + + Gross domestic product growth + + Inflation rate No impact Exchange rate between VND and USD (Source: Author’s synthesis) Description Based on the research results, the author will provide some recommendations in chapter to improve commercial banks’ profitability, thereby helping policy makers to easily control and optimize the profitability of commercial banks vii DECLARATION I hereby declare that the graduate thesis is my original work, written by me under the guidance of Ms Vu Thi Hai Minh and it has not been presented for examination in anywhere else The data and sources cited in the thesis have been duly acknowledged I take full responsibility for my pledge Author Nguyen Thi Minh Thu viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT It is my radiant sentiment to place on record my best regards, deepest sense of gratitude to my supervisor at Banking University in Ho Chi Minh City - Ms Vu Thi Hai Minh, for her patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and immense knowledge She has wholeheartedly helped and guided me in the process of writing this thesis I choose this moment to acknowledge her contribution as she has been supportive of my study and has actively provided me with enormous information to achieve the goal Also, I would like to thank all of my friends, who always support and help me through the study together with the inspiration they gave me Author Nguyen Thi Minh Thu xxxviii 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB 0.0159 0.0138 0.0132 0.0126 0.0124 0.0114 0.0113 0.0112 0.0187 0.0121 0.0100 0.0070 0.0021 0.0031 0.0014 0.0011 0.0015 0.0011 0.0063 0.0051 0.0096 0.0127 0.0113 0.0047 0.0050 0.0055 18.5126 18.7488 18.9838 19.0106 19.1163 19.2139 19.3617 19.5645 19.6034 17.9725 18.5636 18.5550 18.5153 18.4894 18.4634 18.4629 18.3439 18.5361 18.7411 16.2078 16.4903 16.7542 16.5886 17.1753 17.4343 17.3842 0.0126 0.0159 0.0184 0.0223 0.0273 0.0161 0.0132 0.0223 0.0189 0.0062 0.0187 0.0227 0.0265 0.0271 0.0516 0.0341 0.0236 0.0223 0.0301 0.0171 0.0217 0.0255 0.0248 0.0148 0.0140 0.0091 0.0079 0.0066 0.0049 0.0057 0.0062 0.0056 0.0059 0.0059 0.0053 0.0072 0.0079 0.0107 0.0090 0.0096 0.0113 0.0147 0.0202 0.0178 0.0170 0.0166 0.0244 0.0103 0.0178 0.0038 0.0048 0.0077 0.0689 0.0544 0.0588 0.0624 0.0595 0.0756 0.0701 0.0605 0.0663 0.0498 0.0479 0.0734 0.0760 0.0879 0.0905 0.1154 0.1283 0.1058 0.0806 0.1145 0.1379 0.1589 0.1876 0.1043 0.0805 0.0852 0.4451 0.4250 0.4241 0.4864 0.5016 0.5490 0.5882 0.5868 0.6579 0.3737 0.2759 0.3301 0.2633 0.2559 0.2253 0.2693 0.3792 0.3226 0.3539 0.4583 0.3654 0.3676 0.4278 0.4020 0.4459 0.5883 0.5997 0.6450 0.6705 0.7545 0.8360 0.8214 0.7603 0.7015 0.7354 0.4705 0.4215 0.5447 0.5421 0.6114 0.6057 0.6003 0.6218 0.5065 0.4611 0.4115 0.3985 0.3412 0.5452 0.4753 0.5449 0.6870 0.0839 0.0862 0.0586 0.0724 0.1071 0.1129 0.0835 0.1621 0.2304 0.0367 0.0301 0.0313 0.0144 0.0187 0.0188 0.0291 0.0390 0.0530 0.0616 0.0305 0.0520 0.0225 0.0479 0.0624 0.0270 0.0247 0.0114 0.0135 0.0154 0.0034 0.0155 0.0156 0.0163 0.0191 0.0268 0.0080 0.0080 0.0110 0.0169 0.0158 0.0139 0.0173 0.0205 0.0184 0.0212 0.0118 0.0118 0.0130 0.0197 0.0145 0.0124 0.0166 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 xxxix 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 NAB NAB NAB NCB NCB NCB NCB NCB NCB NCB NCB NCB NCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB PGB PGB PGB 0.0008 0.0044 0.0079 0.0076 0.0078 0.0074 0.0001 0.0007 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0005 0.0163 0.0155 0.0119 0.0084 0.0074 0.0056 0.0042 0.0061 0.0121 0.0220 0.0168 0.0134 0.0254 17.5733 17.8126 18.1338 16.7435 16.8121 16.9289 16.7279 17.0686 17.3309 17.6915 18.0498 18.0900 18.0980 16.3560 16.7956 17.0512 17.1269 17.3058 17.4815 17.7164 17.9715 18.2499 18.4203 16.1591 16.6115 16.6824 0.0294 0.0195 0.0154 0.0245 0.0224 0.0292 0.0564 0.0607 0.0252 0.0215 0.0148 0.0153 0.0167 0.0260 0.0205 0.0280 0.0280 0.0290 0.0300 0.0194 0.0151 0.0179 0.0229 0.0123 0.0142 0.0206 0.0074 0.0084 0.0062 0.0144 0.0390 0.0163 0.0109 0.0069 0.0066 0.0059 0.0041 0.0040 0.0040 0.0288 0.0509 0.0161 0.0080 0.0048 0.0059 0.0054 0.0073 0.0077 0.0068 0.0136 0.0119 0.0130 0.0706 0.0555 0.0447 0.0974 0.0909 0.1325 0.1620 0.1152 0.0886 0.0618 0.0432 0.0415 0.0412 0.1629 0.1403 0.1257 0.1215 0.1016 0.0933 0.0737 0.0642 0.0594 0.0661 0.0960 0.1221 0.1138 0.5610 0.6676 0.6770 0.5329 0.5379 0.5741 0.6884 0.5209 0.4948 0.4236 0.3674 0.4470 0.4926 0.8054 0.5884 0.5446 0.6286 0.6153 0.5490 0.5601 0.6034 0.5716 0.5634 0.6015 0.6647 0.6889 0.7953 0.7322 0.7219 0.5152 0.5356 0.6589 0.6670 0.7103 0.7269 0.7056 0.6056 0.6364 0.6510 0.6347 0.4412 0.3852 0.5569 0.5829 0.6113 0.5967 0.6748 0.6290 0.6038 0.6619 0.6536 0.6214 0.0198 0.0193 0.0215 0.0886 0.0221 0.0129 0.0099 0.0077 0.0066 0.0107 0.0107 0.7482 0.7930 0.0133 0.0184 0.0112 0.0094 0.0144 0.0082 0.0107 0.0327 0.0691 0.0310 0.0764 0.0864 0.0300 0.0182 0.0158 0.0154 0.0108 0.0137 0.0175 0.0353 0.0239 0.0180 0.0136 0.0125 0.0134 0.0138 0.0178 0.0143 0.0168 0.0186 0.0186 0.0167 0.0161 0.0164 0.0172 0.0187 0.0152 0.0173 0.0258 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 xl 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB SCB SCB SCB SCB SCB SCB SCB SCB SCB SCB SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA 0.0125 0.0015 0.0051 0.0019 0.0057 0.0025 0.0048 0.0058 0.0046 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 0.0004 0.0003 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0183 0.0127 0.0013 0.0008 0.0020 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0024 16.7731 17.0294 17.0659 16.8746 16.8756 17.0635 17.0818 17.8136 17.9129 18.7910 18.8208 19.0141 19.3054 19.5570 19.7063 19.9114 20.0479 17.0390 17.7174 18.3752 18.0566 18.1215 18.1263 18.2553 18.4538 18.6439 0.0844 0.0298 0.0247 0.0275 0.0247 0.0323 0.0306 0.0128 0.1140 0.0725 0.0723 0.0163 0.0049 0.0034 0.0068 0.0045 0.0042 0.0188 0.0214 0.0275 0.0298 0.0284 0.0286 0.0317 0.0297 0.0157 0.0104 0.0071 0.0075 0.0103 0.0083 0.0071 0.0097 0.0124 0.0456 0.0140 0.0291 0.0094 0.0058 0.0075 0.0065 0.0060 0.0050 0.0080 0.0069 0.0060 0.0060 0.0063 0.0071 0.0067 0.0069 0.0059 0.1558 0.1206 0.1163 0.1408 0.1407 0.1166 0.1144 0.0754 0.0726 0.0731 0.0710 0.0680 0.0508 0.0459 0.0395 0.0322 0.0300 0.2018 0.1078 0.0558 0.0768 0.0737 0.0734 0.0645 0.0529 0.0494 0.7162 0.5574 0.5623 0.7454 0.8221 0.8323 0.8413 0.5746 0.5513 0.4562 0.5908 0.4917 0.5532 0.5472 0.6143 0.6002 0.5932 0.3833 0.4144 0.2055 0.2403 0.2823 0.4296 0.5050 0.5707 0.5642 0.6406 0.5572 0.6978 0.7915 0.8578 0.8889 0.8906 0.5526 0.5836 0.4049 0.5308 0.8126 0.8195 0.8217 0.8161 0.7801 0.7563 0.4916 0.5008 0.3595 0.4526 0.4880 0.6044 0.6727 0.6978 0.6403 0.0282 0.0415 0.0428 0.0403 0.0326 0.0325 0.0382 0.0134 0.2020 0.3210 0.0016 0.0019 0.0044 0.0269 0.0466 0.0567 0.0607 0.0624 0.0679 0.0159 0.0072 0.0126 0.0157 0.0233 0.0243 0.0289 0.0289 0.0199 0.0186 0.0228 0.0197 0.0185 0.0198 0.0084 0.0098 0.0032 0.0158 0.0100 0.0070 0.0084 0.0067 0.0075 0.0081 0.0106 0.0090 0.0062 0.0137 0.0108 0.0105 0.0114 0.0108 0.0101 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 xli 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SEA SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB STB STB STB STB STB 0.0035 0.0177 0.0475 0.0198 0.0200 0.0118 0.0114 0.0024 0.0073 0.0026 0.0020 0.0151 0.0129 0.0106 0.0002 0.0059 0.0047 0.0039 0.0039 0.0054 0.0052 0.0161 0.0125 0.0141 0.0066 0.0138 18.7606 16.2900 16.6360 16.5476 16.5137 16.5023 16.5770 16.6918 16.7625 16.8751 16.8297 17.1286 17.7480 18.0780 18.5737 18.7827 18.9456 19.1371 19.2706 19.4715 19.5940 18.4601 18.8419 18.7676 18.8402 18.8993 0.0192 0.0178 0.0191 0.0475 0.0293 0.0224 0.0208 0.0188 0.0263 0.0297 0.0219 0.0279 0.0140 0.0223 0.0881 0.0566 0.0202 0.0172 0.0187 0.0233 0.0240 0.0064 0.0054 0.0058 0.0205 0.0146 0.0073 0.0107 0.0091 0.0117 0.0130 0.0116 0.0119 0.0108 0.0105 0.0100 0.0077 0.0051 0.0040 0.0060 0.0042 0.0038 0.0047 0.0094 0.0055 0.0051 0.0058 0.0837 0.0832 0.0838 0.0638 0.0262 0.0547 0.1264 0.1466 0.1927 0.2074 0.2098 0.1947 0.1736 0.1617 0.1445 0.1512 0.0744 0.0704 0.0691 0.0769 0.0617 0.0524 0.0468 0.0483 0.0395 0.0375 0.0777 0.0717 0.0759 0.0706 0.0780 0.5973 0.8186 0.6229 0.7278 0.7313 0.7266 0.7099 0.6542 0.6580 0.6616 0.6710 0.4670 0.4776 0.4108 0.4886 0.5327 0.6158 0.6420 0.6941 0.6933 0.6712 0.5735 0.5413 0.5693 0.6333 0.6851 0.6004 0.7142 0.5384 0.5811 0.7037 0.7357 0.7485 0.7404 0.7439 0.6965 0.7205 0.5341 0.5023 0.4900 0.6659 0.6319 0.7290 0.7270 0.7120 0.6814 0.6967 0.5818 0.5141 0.5308 0.7064 0.8158 0.0348 0.0287 0.0083 0.0201 0.0228 0.0343 0.0391 0.0389 0.0391 0.0390 0.0425 0.0469 0.0339 0.0329 0.0195 0.0239 0.0427 0.0158 0.0281 0.0838 0.0363 0.1746 0.1217 0.0944 0.0766 0.0881 0.0116 0.0187 0.0164 0.0208 0.0258 0.0259 0.0202 0.0213 0.0223 0.0189 0.0220 0.0124 0.0133 0.0159 0.0144 0.0130 0.0096 0.0102 0.0107 0.0092 0.0100 0.0158 0.0143 0.0254 0.0273 0.0261 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 xlii 2014 STB 0.0116 19.0615 0.0119 0.0254 0.0663 0.6745 0.8591 0.0950 0.0235 2015 STB 0.0022 19.4924 0.0580 0.0226 0.0622 0.6366 0.8937 0.1095 0.0177 2016 STB 0.0003 19.6207 0.0691 0.0177 0.0547 0.5989 0.8784 0.0974 0.0171 2017 STB 0.0032 19.7249 0.0467 0.0169 0.0493 0.6051 0.8681 0.1597 0.0172 2018 STB 0.0044 19.8220 0.0213 0.0157 0.0447 0.6320 0.8605 0.1434 0.0193 2009 TCB 0.0184 18.3436 0.0249 0.0213 0.0583 0.4547 0.6734 0.1076 0.0128 2010 TCB 0.0138 18.8281 0.0229 0.0287 0.0461 0.3522 0.5360 0.1085 0.0106 2011 TCB 0.0175 19.0114 0.0283 0.0283 0.0487 0.3515 0.4910 0.0762 0.0116 2012 TCB 0.0043 19.0081 0.0270 0.0252 0.0492 0.3794 0.6195 0.0597 0.0183 2013 TCB 0.0041 18.8838 0.0365 0.0144 0.0559 0.4423 0.7551 0.0866 0.0211 2014 TCB 0.0062 18.9854 0.0238 0.0155 0.0505 0.4565 0.7487 0.1288 0.0195 2015 TCB 0.0080 19.0730 0.0166 0.0143 0.0462 0.5843 0.7409 0.1357 0.0192 2016 TCB 0.0134 19.2766 0.0157 0.0126 0.0377 0.6059 0.7369 0.1664 0.0181 2017 TCB 0.0239 19.4117 0.0161 0.0087 0.0363 0.5971 0.6347 0.2569 0.0179 2018 TCB 0.0264 19.5869 0.0175 0.0081 0.1104 0.4983 0.6275 0.2105 0.0182 2009 TPB 0.0209 14.6987 0.0000 0.0081 0.4135 0.1139 0.4845 0.0095 0.0218 2010 TPB 0.0120 16.1884 0.0003 0.0087 0.1388 0.2976 0.3943 0.0483 0.0115 2011 TPB -0.0551 17.0298 0.0067 0.0051 0.1204 0.1473 0.2508 0.0146 0.0520 2012 TPB 0.0077 16.5316 0.0366 0.0043 0.2994 0.4023 0.6131 0.0127 0.0215 2013 TPB 0.0119 17.2837 0.0233 0.0092 0.1411 0.3718 0.4467 0.0188 0.0132 2014 TPB 0.0104 17.7567 0.0122 0.0075 0.0879 0.3854 0.4201 0.0284 0.0129 2015 TPB 0.0074 18.1491 0.0081 0.0082 0.0594 0.3705 0.5183 0.0310 0.0104 2016 TPB 0.0053 18.4769 0.0075 0.0077 0.0476 0.4409 0.5207 0.0283 0.0126 2017 TPB 0.0078 18.6367 0.0110 0.0095 0.0447 0.5110 0.5664 0.0383 0.0156 2018 TPB 0.0133 18.7295 0.0112 0.0098 0.0625 0.5668 0.5591 0.0922 0.0209 2009 VAB 0.0133 16.5766 0.0131 0.1292 0.0962 0.7613 0.6834 0.0266 0.0135 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 xliii 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCA VCA VCA VCA VCA VCA VCA 0.0111 0.0110 0.0067 0.0028 0.0017 0.0020 0.0016 0.0015 0.0017 0.0154 0.0138 0.0114 0.0106 0.0093 0.0080 0.0079 0.0087 0.0088 0.0136 0.0164 0.0069 0.0159 0.0099 0.0045 0.0063 0.0018 16.9970 16.9296 17.0186 17.1126 17.3876 17.5503 17.9340 17.9812 18.0823 19.3587 19.5440 19.7201 19.8425 19.9661 20.1733 20.3293 20.4849 20.7579 20.7947 15.0185 15.9227 16.6469 16.8442 16.9536 17.0652 17.1835 0.0252 0.0256 0.0465 0.0288 0.0233 0.0226 0.0214 0.0268 0.0137 0.0247 0.0283 0.0203 0.0240 0.0273 0.0231 0.0184 0.0151 0.0114 0.0098 0.0348 0.0407 0.0270 0.0190 0.0273 0.0231 0.0184 0.1010 0.0425 0.0421 0.0107 0.0100 0.0080 0.0064 0.0049 0.0038 0.0176 0.0170 0.0147 0.0136 0.0129 0.0144 0.0126 0.0123 0.0098 0.0119 0.0067 0.0040 0.0032 0.0031 0.0049 0.0049 0.0052 0.1264 0.1424 0.1303 0.1186 0.0901 0.0836 0.0569 0.0543 0.0491 0.0475 0.0464 0.0566 0.0782 0.0691 0.0562 0.0481 0.0457 0.0351 0.0338 0.3111 0.3647 0.1768 0.1451 0.1301 0.1164 0.1034 0.5519 0.5143 0.5238 0.5323 0.4446 0.4840 0.4948 0.5312 0.5318 0.5543 0.5750 0.5711 0.5819 0.5849 0.5604 0.5749 0.5849 0.5249 0.5883 0.6952 0.4453 0.2581 0.3765 0.4351 0.5038 0.5466 0.3901 0.3219 0.6095 0.6963 0.5558 0.5836 0.5237 0.5339 0.5803 0.6617 0.6659 0.6190 0.6862 0.7084 0.7317 0.7431 0.7494 0.6844 0.7467 0.3488 0.3868 0.3083 0.4982 0.5222 0.5697 0.6418 0.0240 0.0074 0.0065 0.0072 0.0072 0.0041 0.0047 0.0029 0.0036 0.0897 0.0932 0.0659 0.0709 0.0970 0.1131 0.1134 0.1147 0.1165 0.1257 0.0056 0.0064 0.0022 0.0050 0.0055 0.0066 0.0101 0.0127 0.0147 0.0129 0.0127 0.0098 0.0105 0.0079 0.0087 0.0079 0.0137 0.0148 0.0155 0.0145 0.0133 0.0119 0.0123 0.0126 0.0115 0.0127 0.0217 0.0132 0.0123 0.0171 0.0175 0.0193 0.0151 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 xliv 2016 VCA 2017 VCA 2018 VCA 2009 VIB 2010 VIB 2011 VIB 2012 VIB 2013 VIB 2014 VIB 2015 VIB 2016 VIB 2017 VIB 2018 VIB 2009 VPB 2010 VPB 2011 VPB 2012 VPB 2013 VPB 2014 VPB 2015 VPB 2016 VPB 2017 VPB 2018 VPB 0.0001 0.0008 0.0020 0.0081 0.0084 0.0066 0.0080 0.0007 0.0065 0.0062 0.0054 0.0091 0.0158 0.0107 0.0084 0.0097 0.0063 0.0084 0.0077 0.0124 0.0172 0.0232 0.0228 17.2932 17.5019 17.6561 17.8521 18.3570 18.3897 17.9903 18.1577 18.2058 18.2500 18.4649 18.6290 18.7512 17.1313 17.9066 18.2322 18.4461 18.6135 18.9107 19.0827 19.2482 19.4422 19.5941 0.0145 0.0111 0.0097 0.0128 0.0159 0.0269 0.0262 0.0282 0.0251 0.0207 0.0258 0.0249 0.0251 0.0163 0.0120 0.0182 0.0272 0.0281 0.0254 0.0269 0.0291 0.0339 0.0350 0.0063 0.0075 0.0109 0.0107 0.0152 0.0122 0.0111 0.0074 0.0079 0.0101 0.0082 0.0083 0.0079 0.0129 0.0055 0.0123 0.0078 0.0128 0.0083 0.0084 0.0076 0.0093 0.0057 0.0926 0.0752 0.0644 0.0424 0.0602 0.0702 0.1046 0.0885 0.0843 0.0807 0.0651 0.0490 0.0563 0.0832 0.0772 0.0610 0.0563 0.0476 0.0389 0.0416 0.0401 0.0565 0.0783 0.6483 0.6274 0.6378 0.4830 0.4448 0.4487 0.5212 0.4584 0.4733 0.5667 0.5758 0.6485 0.6908 0.5741 0.4234 0.3524 0.3598 0.4327 0.4801 0.6025 0.6324 0.6577 0.6866 0.7599 0.6772 0.7195 0.5715 0.4795 0.4554 0.6007 0.5625 0.6081 0.6322 0.5670 0.5552 0.6098 0.5987 0.4008 0.3551 0.5802 0.6914 0.6638 0.6719 0.5411 0.4808 0.5285 0.0113 0.0150 0.0275 0.0535 0.0445 0.0272 0.0265 0.0530 0.0505 0.0582 0.0739 0.0819 0.1018 0.0928 0.0876 0.0885 0.0650 0.0725 0.0774 0.0852 0.0825 0.0797 0.0153 0.0186 0.0162 0.0150 0.0153 0.0127 0.0175 0.0279 0.0113 0.0147 0.0209 0.0200 0.0190 0.0193 0.0173 0.0091 0.0157 0.0183 0.0223 0.0226 0.0294 0.0289 0.0315 0.0329 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1276 1.2466 1.1022 1.0491 1.0823 1.1377 1.2835 1.4006 1.4185 1.4189 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 1.4533 1.3186 1.1390 1.1113 1.1393 1.1549 1.2012 1.1719 1.1260 1.1060 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0540 0.0642 0.0624 0.0525 0.0542 0.0598 0.0668 0.0621 0.0681 0.0708 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 0.0705 0.0886 0.1868 0.0909 0.0659 0.0471 0.0088 0.0324 0.0352 0.0354 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 9.7905 9.8613 9.9377 9.9462 9.9545 9.9621 9.9973 10.0159 10.0309 10.0453 xlv Appendix 03 – Research results Picture 1: Descriptive statistics xlvi Picture 2: Correlation analysis xlvii Picture 3: Pooled OLS output xlviii Picture 4: FEM output xlix Picture 5: REM output Picture 6: Model choice between Pooled OLS and FEM l Picture 7: Model choice between FEM and REM li Picture 8: Autocorrelation diagnostics Picture 9: Collinearity diagnostics lii Picture 10: Heteroskedasticity diagnostics Picture 11: FGLS output Picture 12: The prediction of residuals Picture 13: Normality test of residuals ... significance The thesis synthesizes theories and previous studies in relation to the profitability of commercial banks in order to find factors affecting the profitability of commercial banks in Vietnam. .. improve the profitability of commercial banks in Vietnam In order to further analyze the impact of Vietnam' s macro environment and banking industry on the profitability of Vietnamese commercial banks, ...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY HO CHI MINH CITY NGUYEN THI MINH THU FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROFITABILITY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN VIETNAM FROM 2009