Key factors influence the decision making in large sized timber plantation of local people in cam lo district quang tri province

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESRY FOREST RESOUCRES & ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT FACULTY STUDENT THESIS KEY FACTORS INFLUENCE THE DECISION MAKING IN LARGE-SIZED TIMBER PLANTATION OF LOCAL PEOPLE IN CAM LO DISTRICT, QUANG TRI PROVINCE Majors: Natural Resources Management Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management Student: Ngo Thi Mai Student ID: 1453090563 Class: K59 Natural Resouces Management Advanced Education Program Developed in collaboration with Colorado State University, USA Supervisor: Dr Le Dinh Hai Ha Noi, Oct 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER INTRODUCTION CHAPTER GOAL AND OBJECTIVES 2.1 Goal 2.2 Objectives 2.3 Study Area 2.4 Time Scale CHAPTER STUDY AREA AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Study area 3.1.1 Quang Tri Province 3.1.2 Cam Lo District 3.2 Definition of large-sized timber and small-sized timber 3.3: Research framework 3.4 Methodology 10 3.4.1 Data collection method 10 3.4.2 Data processing method 12 3.4.3 Data analysis method 12 CHAPTER 18 STUDY RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 18 4.1: The situation about plantation forest in Cam Lo district 18 4.2 Descriptive statistic on survey households in Cam Lo district 18 4.2.1 Land area of households 18 4.2.2: Education of household head 20 4.2.3 Training for siviculture techniques 20 4.3 Key factors influence the decision making in large-sized timber forest plantation of surveyed household 21 4.3.1 Understanding markets about large-sized timber of local people 23 4.3.2 FSC project participation of local people 24 4.3.3 Support from community to encourage local people plant large-sized timber forest 25 4.4 Compare cost-benifit between small-sized timber and large-sized timber 26 i CHAPTER 28 SOLUTIONS AND LIMITATION 28 5.1 Compare between large-sized timber plantation and small-size timber plantation 28 5.2 Analyzing SWOT about planting large-sized timber forest 29 5.3 Solutions to encourage local people plant large-sized timber 29 5.4 Limitation 31 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS 32 REFERENCES 33 APPENDIX ii LIST OF TABLE Table 3.1: Survey Sampling design in Cam Lo District 11 Table 3.2: List of dependent variable and independent variable 15 Table 4.1: Characteristic of surveyed household by commune in Cam Lo District 19 Table 4.2: Key factors influence the decision making in large-sized timber plantation of surveyed household 22 iii LIST OF FIGURE Figure 3.1: The map of Quang Tri Province Figure 3.2: The map of Cam Lo district, Quang Tri Province Figure 3.3: Research framework Figure 3.4: Conceptual model for potential factors influencing decision making large-sized timber plantation by local people 10 Figure 3.5: Graph of Binary logistic regression 15 I choose 15 variable based on figure 3.4 Conceptual model for potential factors influencing decision making large-sized timber plantation by local people 15 Figure 4.1 Education level of household head in Cam Lo district 20 Figure 4.2 Training for siviculture techniques of household 21 Figure 4.3 Understanding markets about large-sized timber of local people 23 Figure 4.4: FSC project paticipation of local peope in Cam Lo district 25 Figure 4.5 Support from community for local people in Cam Lo district 26 iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADB The Asian Development Bank BCR Benifit-cost ratio BNN-TCLN Ministry of Agriculture- General Directorate of Forestry (Bộ Nông Nghiệp- Tổng Cục Lâm Nghiệp ) EEPSEA The Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia FSC Certificated for Sustainable Forest management IRR Internal rate of return LWCC Legacy of War Coordination Center NPV Net present value ODA Official Development Assistance PAM Programme Alimentaire Mondial TCVN Standard of Viet Nam (Tiêu Chuẩn Việt Nam) VND Việt Nam Đồng v ABSTRACT At present, the forestry sector is very interested in planting large-sized timber Many models of planting large-sized timber are implementing and bring efficiency The purpose of this thesis is analyzing the key factors influence the decision making in largesized timber plantation of local people in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province; the analyze and evaluate cost-benefit of large-sized timber project Collection data by questionnaire and analyze data by SPSS software The results show that three factors are influencing the decision making in large-sized timber plantation of local people such as understanding markets, FSC project participation, and support from the community Profits from largesized timber plantation projects are higher than small-sized timber plantation Therefore, we will recommend some appropriate methods to encourage local people to plant largesized timber CHAPTER INTRODUCTION The roles and values of forests have been appreciated by people in history and modern times In the world, there are many countries and territories, the state and people have a tradition of a plantation, especially in Europe and North America Forests have played a significant role in our lives to mitigating climate change Forests help to regulate the flow in rivers and surface ground The water will be kept in the canopy when going down the forest more than in the ground help the flow decrease in the storm season Forests prevent the surface flow when it runs too fast, making the floods appear more slowly, reducing the level of sudden and severe Water infiltrates the forest land as well as the stock of plants and other organisms live in the soil Therefore, the area has more forest cover will reduce natural disasters, drought, and floods The forest has control flow very well Vietnam has a large area of forest land, there are many policies, programs, and projects for development and sustainable forest management “Approving the action plan to improve the productivity, quality, and value of forest plantation in the 2014-2020 period.” Issued together with Decision No 774/QD-BNN-TCLN Besides, “Approving Viet Nam’s Forestry Development Strategy in the 2006-2020 period” issued together with Decision No 18/2007/QD-Ttg which was approved by the Prime Minister on February 5, 2017, an essential legal basis for the development of forestry in Vietnam In Vietnam, large-sized timber plantation understood harvest after 10-14 years The yields are 200 - 240m3/ha most of the trees reach the diameter of over 18cm, accounting for 50% of the reserve of about 100-120m3/ha (Source: Mr Nhu Van Ky-General Forestry Department1) The majority of people choose hybrid acacia to convert from small-sized Mr Nhu Van Ky-General Forestry Department timber plantation to large-sized timber plantation In comparison with small-sized timber plantation, the profit from large-sized timber is higher depending on the age of harvest and the diameter of the tree In March 2018, Quang Tri province has over 22,000 of large-sized timber that was certificated from FSC for sustainable forest management (FSC), accounting for 40% of the total forest area of certificated from FSC in the country Large-sized timber has a ten-year extraction cycle, as well as a choice of harvesting options, keep the forest cover to minimize flooding Quang Tri is the leading province in developing large-sized timber from FSC, and it is approving to promote economic development, environment Besides, in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province has been implemented the model of developing large-sized timber plantation Cam Lo has developed the model of hybrid acacia hybrid 13.5 years old This is the model of the State level project in the period of 2001-2005, code KC.06.05.NN, also in the study area "Research on the system of intensive acacia hybrid plantation techniques, Acacia auriculiformis provide large timber on new land" from 2015 to 2019 by Nguyen Huy Son and Pham Xuan Dinh is the manager However, the forest owner usually makes decision harvest based on factors such as environmental condition and profit of products If making the decision, Is the forest owner understand the economic benefits of shortening the plantation rotation? If plantation largesized timber for a long time, It would have benefit and potential for local people? What is factor influence the decision making of local people to plant large-sized timber? To explain these issues, developing large-sized timber plantation in a community is an urgent choice Therefore, I decided to the research project "Key factors influence the decision making in large-sized timber plantation of local people in Cam Lo District, Quang Tri Province" CHAPTER GOAL AND OBJECTIVES 2.1 Goal Analyzing the scientific and practical issues to develop large-sized timber forest in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province; providing information help local people understand the efficiency of large-sized timber plantation to develop large-sized timber in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province 2.2 Objectives (1) Analyzing the key factors influence the decision making of local people to largesized timber plantation (2) Proposing some solutions to encourage local people to develop large-sized timber plantation in Cam Loc district, Quang Tri province 2.3 Study Area - Research project in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province 2.4 Time Scale - Collecting secondary data for research from 2014-2019 - Collecting primary data from 7/2018-8/2018 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY QUESTIONAIRE ABOUT PLANTATION LARGE-SIZE TIMBER FOREST OF LOCAL PEOPLE IN CAM LO DISTRICT, QUANG TRI PROVINCE I: HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTIC FACTORS A General information  Date: …………/…………/…………  Name of interviewee:…………………………………………  Relationship with household head: …………………………………  Phone number:……………………………………  Gender: ❒ 0=Male ❒ 1=Female………  Ethnic: ❒Kinh ❒Other Age …………………………………  Village:…… …… ▪ Commune: …………:…▪ District : …………:……………  Type of household: ❒ 1=Poor ❒ 2=Medium ❒ 3=Rich  Education level: ❒ Primary school ❒ Intermediate ❒ Secondary school ❒ College, University ❒ High school ❒ University, Graduate ❒ Other  Main occupation:……………………………………………… B General information about household Information about houlsehold members - Total members: ……… - Number of labor: ………… - Number of member practice forest plantation :…………… Gender 0= Male 1= Female No Name Land Production area No Age Educati on level Contents Total land production area Forest land area 2.1 Small-size timber forest area 2.2 Large-size timber forest area 2.3 Agroforestry area Agriculture land area Main occupati on Knowledge Relationship with of household sivicultural head techniques 0= No 1= Yes Area (ha) Other land Capital for plantation forest Capital of houshold for plantation forest: ………………………(VND million) Equity Capital:……………………………… - ( VND million) - Have you ever loan to support your family's plantation activities? ❒ Yes ❒ No If “Yes”, Can you answer this question?: Capital Number of Interest rate Loan time (year) money (VND (%) Loan purpose million) Bank Credit Fund Relatives Other ❒ Easy ❒Yes Do you provide feedback on loan procedures? ❒ Normal ❒ Difficult Do you have a loan overdue? ❒ No - If “Yes”, Can you provide reason of loan overdue Income of household No Number Targets Note Content of money Total income Income from forest ❒Small: Business ❒Big: ❒Agriculture: ❒Breed: Source of ❒Timber and Non-timber household income product: ❒Other: II: SITUATION AND FACTORS EFFECTING TO FOREST PLANTATION OF HOUSEHOLD Experience forest plantation of household - How many years have you planted the forest? - Do you know about the sivicultural techniques? ❒Yes ❒ No If “Yes”, Where you learn sivicultural techniques? ❒ From parents ❒ Internet, Radio ❒ Training ❒ Other : ……………………… - Which unit / organization to give the training ❒Forestry extention of commune/district ❒ Project ❒ Local forest management unit ❒ Other :………………… - What is the content of the training? ❒ Sivicultural techniques ❒ Pets Control ❒ Forest fire prevention ❒ Other :………………… - What is the support for plantation production development? No Contents Unit Forest protection and certification Nursery technique Sivicultural technique Forest management and business skills for farmers Guide forest owners to plan forest management Acacia plantation techniques Forest protection and tending Other: Building model nursery 10 Model of thinning forest plantation 11 Equipment for harvesting (sawing machine) for the cooperative's forest exploitation team 12 Practice in other localities 13 Subsidize seedlings 14 Fire Prevention Technology - Did you apply knowledge of forest plantation training? Time ❒ Yes ❒ No Information on plantation characteristics of the household - General information on species Name of Area species (ha) No Age of Rotation plantation of time Density Seed (tree/ha) - Is there a control on the source of seed for the forest owner? ❒ Yes - Supply ❒ No What is the location of the planted forest? No Distance Unit (m) Distance to the fiel Distance to the market Distance from the fiel to the company - Accessibility Accessibility: ❒ Difficult-Have to walk ❒ Moderate– accesssible by motobike ❒ Easy – accessibile by car - Is your forest plantation area affected by natural disasters? ❒Yes ❒ No Note No Natural Time/year Resilience of trees after disaster disaster Flooding Storm Forest fire Other Working time No Contents Time Site preparation Digging holes Shipping + Planting Fertilizer Weeding control Forest management and protection Thinning Other Note Forest plantation techniques Grounding techniques Cultivation technique Harvest Year Machine 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hand Drills Other Cut off Thinning Costs and incomes related to plantation forest activities of households No a) 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 b) 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 c) Contents Costs Direct costs Site preparation Diggig holes Seeding Shipping+Plantation Fertilizer Extra planting Thinning Indirect costs Disease prevention Management and protect Harvest Transport Transportation of sawn timber Transporting wood chips Labor costs Loan interest Other costs 2.1 2.2 2.3 Total costs (=a+b+c) Incomes Sawn timber Wood chips Other Harvested yield (ton / ha) Price (1000đ/ton) Year 10 11 12 … 6.Knowledge market - Would you please tell me the average price per hectare of forest plantation million? - Are you satisfied with the current price on the market? Yes  No If not, please tell us the specific reason:…………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………… …… What is the common mode of purchasing?  Selling trees in plot  Selling products after harvesting Other - Do you have the guarantee and commitment to produce from the buyer? Yes - No How is demand about large-sized timber?  Big Small  I don’t know Social Factors -Do you have any community support in large-sized timber plantation?  Yes -If yes, please answer the support:  No  Financial support  Technical support  Other: Do you paticipation FSC project? Yes  No If yes, please tell me how much forest area is FSC certified? …………………………………………………………………… -What are the advantages and disadvantages of plantation under the FSC certification? ……………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………… Policy related to large-sized timber plantation - Do you know policy related to large-sized timber plantation? Yes  No - Did you receive support for the policy of large-sized timber plantation? Yes  No If Yes, What is the policy? …………………………………………… …………………………………………… .………………………………………… - Do you have any difficulties with the policy procedure related to the large-sized timber plantation? Yes  No Do you wants to support the policy of reforestation big trees in the following aspects (Mark from to according to the level of support needed from Very necessary to neccessary) No Supports Financial support early stage Support of seedlings and production materials (fertilizers, machinery) Support training to improve knowledge According from 1-4 Support in marketing the product III Open Question:  If you small-sized timber plantation please reply in detail but the following question: Have you ever planted large-sized timber? Yes  No If so, why not you continue planting large-sized timber forest, please answer the reason: 1…………………………………………………… 2…………………………………………………… 3…………………………………………………… Do you intend to change to large-sized timber plantations? Yes  No Would you please tell us the difficulties when moving to large-sized timber plantation? 1………………………………………………… 2………………………………………………… 3…………………………………………………… Do you propose any solutions for the conversion of large timber plantations? 1…………………………………………………………… 2…………………………………………………………… 3……………………………………………………………  If you large-sized timber plantation please reply in detail but the following question: How long have you planted large-sized timber ?… year  No Have you ever planted small-sized timber?Yes If so, what is your reason for switching from small-sized timber plantation to large-sized timber plantation? 1……………………………………………………………………………… 2……………………………………………………………………………… 3……………………………………………………………………………… What are the advantages and disadvantages of planting large-sized timber ? Advantages: Disadvantages: Would you please suggest solutions to improve the efficiency of plantation large-sized timber? …………………………………………………………………………………… …………………………………………………………………………………… Interviewee’s Signature Table 5.1: Model Summary Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Nagelkerke R Square Square 110.000 a 477 637 113.302 b 466 622 113.364 b 465 621 116.213 b 455 608 Table 5.2: Classification Table Classification Table a Predicted Decision Observed Step Decision No Percentage Yes Correct No 74 92.5 Yes 19 51 72.9 Overall Percentage Step Decision 83.3 No 74 92.5 Yes 19 51 72.9 Overall Percentage Step Decision 83.3 No 73 91.3 Yes 19 51 72.9 Overall Percentage Step Decision No 82.7 75 93.8 Yes 23 47 67.1 Overall Percentage 81.3 a The cut value is ,500 Table 5.3: Variable in the Equation Variables in the Equation B a Step df Sig Exp(B) 207 315 434 510 1.231 Forestlandareaha -.094 360 069 793 910 18.750 8121.585 000 998 139065653.5 64 Step 1a Understandmarket Step 3a Wald Totallandareaha Traningsesionforsivilcu ltureskills Step 2a S.E 3.109 1.114 7.793 005 22.396 FSCprojectpaticipation 2.241 713 9.873 002 9.404 SupportfromCommunit y 1.650 668 6.108 013 5.206 -22.950 8121.586 228 317 -.090 363 3.366 1.088 2.334 723 000 519 061 9.576 10.413 1 1 998 471 804 002 001 000 1.257 914 28.969 10.319 Constant Totallandareaha Forestlandareaha Understandmarket FSCprojectpaticipation SupportfromCommunit y Constant 1.716 677 6.424 011 5.560 -4.649 1.137 16.709 000 010 154 3.394 2.330 094 1.085 720 2.660 9.782 10.473 1 103 002 001 1.166 29.795 10.280 Totallandareaha Understandmarket FSCprojectpaticipation SupportfromCommunit y Constant Understandmarket 1.726 675 6.530 011 5.617 -4.664 3.459 1.141 1.072 16.693 10.412 1 000 001 009 31.789 FSCprojectpaticipation 2.413 720 11.229 001 11.170 SupportfromCommunit y 1.835 665 7.624 006 6.265 -4.106 1.061 14.983 000 016 Constant a Variable(s) entered on step 1: Totallandareaha, Forestlandareaha, Traningsesionforsivilcultureskills, Understandmarket, FSCprojectpaticipation, SupportfromCommunity Table 5.4: Cost and revenue structure of small-sized timber plantation No Small-sized timber forest plantation Year Unit: million Contents 1st 2st 3st 4st 5st Direct costs site preparation 0 Digging hole 0 Seedling 0 Planting 0 Fertilizer 1,5 0 Extra Planting 0 weeding control 0,8 0,7 Total cost Revenue Total 0 0 0 15 55 Table 5.5: Cost and revenue structure of large-sized timber plantation Large-sized timber forest plantation No Contents Direct costs site preparation Digging hole Seedling Planting Fertilizer Extra Planting weeding control Thinning Transportation Total cost Revenue Years Unit: Million 1st 2st 3st 4st 5st 6st 7st 8st 0 0 0 0 1,5 0 0 0,8 0,7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,5 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tota l 9st 0 0 0 0 10st 0 0 0 0 250 18,5 285 ... large- sized timber in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province 2.2 Objectives (1) Analyzing the key factors influence the decision making of local people to largesized timber plantation (2) Proposing some... Understanding markets about large- sized timber of local people 23 Understanding markets about large- sized timber of local people are one of the factors influence the decision making in large- sized timber. .. project "Key factors influence the decision making in large- sized timber plantation of local people in Cam Lo District, Quang Tri Province" CHAPTER GOAL AND OBJECTIVES 2.1 Goal Analyzing the scientific