Analyzing the key drivers of tree planting from local people in cao phong district hoa binh province vietnam with bayesian networks

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT VIETNAM FORESTRY UNIVERSITY STUDENT THESIS Title Analyzing the key drivers of tree planting from local people in Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province, Vietnam with Bayesian Networks Major: Natural Resources Management Code: D850101 Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management Student: Tran Thi Mai Anh Student ID: 1153091133 Class: K56 Natural Resources Management Course: 2011 - 2015 Advanced Education Program Developed in collaboration with Colorado State University, USA Supervisor: Dr Le Dinh Hai Ha Noi, 10/2015 Abstract Known as the climate and watershed protection roles, tree planting is an important reforestation activity in the area that involves planting seedling (United Nation Environment Program) In coping with significant deforestation and forest degradation currently in Cao Phong district, Hoa Binh province, a massive of reforestation projects have been implemented The typical forestry programs are the million reforestation program, Project RENFODA and Afforestation and reforestation clean development mechanism (ARCDM) project were contributed to a substantial increase in Hoa Binh‟s forest cover during several decades However, when remarkable attempts and investments have been made in reforestation, interaction of household characteristics, and socio-economic factors with tree planting decision are still little comprehension In this study, 100 households in Bac Phong and Xuan Phong communes, Hoa Binh province were surveyed on factors influenced by tree planting decision as well as the area of forest will be planted The research investigated and determined success indicators including household characteristics and socio economic indicators which effect the decision of farm households to plant trees with Bayesian networks (BNs) BNs allow the incorporation of variances relationships in data analysis and can combine qualitative dependents with quantitative data Based on this there are key factors directly correlated to tree planting decision and other highly connected variances that influence to area of tree planting The two BNs also are developed with the child nodes to give suggestions and recommendations for increasing forest in research area We conclude that government forestry programs contribute great influences to forest planting activities and household characteristics as well as socioeconomic factors have returned effects on the success of reforestation programs Acknowledgements I am pleased to have an opportunity to write my acknowledgements to many people involved in the research, without whom this study would have never happened First and foremost, I would like to express my deep sense of gratitude to respected supervisor Dr Le Dinh Hai from Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Vietnam Forestry University for his continuous support, patient guidance and enthusiastic encouragement throughout my research project His ideas, knowledge and efforts are heavily embedded into this study I wish to extend my thanks to express my heartfelt gratitude to Prof Dr Lee MacDonald, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University for his valuable and constructive suggestions during the planning of this research work His willingness to give his time so generously has been very much appreciated Similarly, I would love to thank various people for their contribution to this project; Mr Nguyen Huu Son, staff of Communal People Committee of Cao Phong district; the staffs of Communal People Committee of Bac Phong and Xuan Phong Communes; Mr Bui Van Bu in Re village, Bac Phong Commue who devote their time to help me during the field survey Special thanks to local people in Cao Phong district for providing me helpful information in this study Finally, I own my gratefully thank to my grandmother, my parents, my sisters, my uncles and aunts for their endless love, supports, and encouragements to me throughout all my life Without their wonderful care, it would have been impossible for me to chase my dream Table of Contents Abstract Acknowledgements Table of Contents List of photos List of figures List of tables Chapter Introduction Chapter Study Goals and Objectives 2.1 Study goal and objectives 2.2 Research questions Chapter Study Area and Research Methodology 3.1 Selection of research site 3.1.1 Hoa Binh Province 3.1.2 Cao Phong district 3.2 Research methodology 3.2.1 Framework of factors influencing tree planting development of smallholder 3.2.2 Data collection 16 3.2.3 Data analysis methods 19 3.2.4 Bayesian networks 22 Chapter Results 27 4.1 Descriptive statistic on surveyed households in Cao Phong district 27 4.1.1 Land area 27 4.1.2 Education 28 4.1.3 Distance to market 28 4.1.4 Knowledge on silviculture 29 4.2 Key drivers affecting tree planting decision of surveyed households 30 4.3 Key drivers affecting forest area will be planted of surveyed households 32 4.4 Relationships among independent variables 33 4.5 Bayesian networks (BNs) 36 4.5.1 Bayesian Network of tree planting decision model 36 4.5.2 Bayesian network of forest area will be planted 38 Chapter Discussion 43 5.1 The difference of perspectives of households about planting trees 43 5.2 Potential actions which may increase planting forest in Cao Phong district 48 5.2.1 Suggestion based on attitude of tree planting 48 5.2.2 Suggestion based on investment capital for tree planting 49 5.2.3 Suggestion based on knowledge on silviculture of local people 50 5.2.4 Suggestion based on distance to market 51 5.2.5 Suggestion based on total land area of each household 53 5.2.6 Suggestion based on participation forest program 54 5.3 Limitations and suggestions for future research 55 Chapter Conclusion 57 Chapter References 60 Chapter Appendices 65 List of photos Photo 3.1 Land use change from timber tree to fruit tree farm Photo 3.2 Photo of interviewing local household of tree planting decision 18 Photo 3.3 Acacia mangium is a popular species in most family 22 Photo 5.1 Tree planting for fuel wood in Bac Phong commune 46 Photo 5.2 Rich household invest on Aquilaria crassna Pierre species 50 List of figures Figure 3.1.The map of Hoa Binh province Figure 3.2 Map of communes in Cao Phong Figure 3.3 Factors influence tree planting decision of smallholder 10 Figure 3.4 Bayesian of tree planting with the status of all variances 26 Figure Frequency distribution of total land area 70 List of tables Table 3.1 General Information on Bac Phong and Xuan Phong Commune (2015) Table 3.2 Cost-benefit parameters and possible influencing cost benefit estimates 13 Table 3.3 Sampling design in Cao Phong district 17 Table 3.4 Basic to define household ranking in Vietnam 18 Table 3.5 Basic to define moderate and rich households in Xuan Phong Commune and Bac Phong 18 Table 3.6 Discretization methods for continuous variables 20 Table 3.7 Tree species are planted in Cao Phong district 21 Table 4.1 Model summary for key drivers affecting tree planting decision 31 Table 4.2 Model summary for key drivers affecting area will be planted 32 Table 5.1 Farmer‟s reasons for planting trees and not planting trees 45 Table 5.2 Percentages of farmers mentioning specific disadvantages of tree planting 47 Table Frequency of people participating in forestry program 70 Table Distribution of distance to market of surveyed households 70 Table Description of discrete variables 71 Table Characteristics of surveyed households by communes with discrete variances 72 Table Correlation between households‟ characteristic and tree planting decision 73 Table Correlation between households‟ characteristic and forest area will be planted 73 Table Summary of significant relationships among tree planting decision and indicators 74 Table Summary of significant relationships among forest area will be planted drivers and indicators 75 Table Difference of socio-economic and household characteristic between tree planter and non-tree planter in Cao Phong district 76 Chapter Introduction Tree planting is the process of transplanting tree seedlings, generally for forestry, land reclamation, or landscaping purposes In silviculture the activity is known as reforestation and afforestation, depending on whether the area being planted has or has not recently been forested (Ngugi Tirus Kamau 2003) Afforestation and reforestation both refer to establishment of trees on non-tree land Reforestation refers to establishment of forest on land that had recent tree cover, whereas afforestation refers to land that has been without forest for much longer (IPCC 1998) Tree planting not only can be used as a geoengineering technique to remove CO2 from the atmosphere but also can be used as solution for economic forest development in comprehensive and sustainable way Hoa Binh is a mountainous province of Vietnam covering an area of 460,870 Of those forest land area occupies 332,800 holding 72% of total area; the number of labors working in agroforestry is 391,500 people taking roughly 71% of all labors in the province (Nhan Sinh 2015) However, since 2009, 25.7% of hill land in Hoa Binh province has not been covered by forests yet (Đăng Ngọc Oanh 2009) These forests protect Da electric power plant, regulate stream flow, maintain water quality, minimize erosion, conserve ecosystems, and provide other benefits via their protection Therefore, planting forest in Hoa Binh were determined as the most importance of environmental protection and a necessary insurance of short term and long term earning for the rural communities Besides that, deforestation had become a problem in Hoa Binh Province In the last decade, due to cutting forest and unplanned cultivating of the ethnic communities, the forest cover of the province dropped to an alarming rate with 27% (GIZ project, 2000) Plus with forest fire forecast is on the level 5/5 which is above average activity, the forests were decreased from 23,103 to 23,042 during 2004 – 2011 period (Phạm Quang Tùng 2013) In 28-September 2005, People‟s committee of Hoa Binh Province was given an official document number 1314/UB-NLB to eliminate forest destruction inside the area, yet deforestation is still an insolvable problem Throughout 20 years, a lot of projects from government and international organizations were established such as Decree 327, Decree 661(1998), Project 747 (472), and Project RENFODA (cooperate with JICA technologies), to fulfil the objectives of raising the forest cover on national level to an average of 43% (Thủ tướng phủ 1998) Up to now, Hoa Binh has implemented 15 plans with the budget by 2005 is 40.1 billion VND and in 2008 is 27.4 billion VND Particularly, on 20 April 2008, a project of Afforestation and reforestation clean development mechanism (AR-CDM) has firstly implemented in Cao Phong district, Hoa Binh Province This is a project formulated with the assistance of JICA study on Capacity Development for AR-CDM Promotion in Vietnam with a total of 3.5 billion VND to be donated to Forest Development Fund which established in April 2008 according to Decree No.148/2007/ND-CP by Honda Vietnam Company The period for the project is 16 years covering by 308.5 located in Xuan Phong and Bac Phong communes, Cao Phong district and be voluntary participated by 320 households of the land using certificate of the project area would conduct planting, tending, protecting and managing of the plantations (Tạ Văn Chính 2007) Planting forest has provided job, contributed the income, eliminated hunger and reduced poverty for thousands of local people, especially the ethnic minorities At the Hoa Binh hydropower plant watershed, the forests transferred for local people were 81,850 ha, occupied 94% of total 86,980 of forest land in protection forests in 2009 (Hoang Lien Son 2009) which were considered as one of 13 focal points of headwater forests in Vietnam (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 2006) Moreover, at the moment, for the 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Forest Ecology and Management 98(3): 239-250 64 Chapter Appendices HOUSEHOLD SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE (Cao Phong District - Hoa Binh Province) I Household characteristic factors Commune: Xuan Phong (1), Bac Phong (2) Village: Head of Household Age:…………… Education:………………… Sex: Male □ Female □ 0=male; 1=female Ethnic: 1=Muong; 2=Kinh; = Other Interviewee (if different from head of household) Age:…………… Sex: Male □ Female □ 0=male; 1=female Relationship with head of household (see note):…………… □ □ □ Household ranking Poor=1 Average=2 Rich=3 □ □ □ Interviewer Date: Please state the total members in your household No Relation Age Sex 0=male 1=female Main occupation Salary (VND/month) Years of education Note: Relation: Head Parents Wife Parent in law Son/daughter in law Son/daughter Grandson/daughter 7.Brother/sister Other relative 0.Not related Main occupation: 1=Wage labour; 2= Agricultural work 3= Student 4=Unemployed 5= Commuting wage labors Does the number of labor enough for tree planting? Yes/ No II Farm characteristic factors Present land holding of household Types of land Unit Agricultural land 65 Area Note Forest land Fruit land area Residential land Other land Total Household income Total household income Crop income Doing small business Source of household income and ranking Yes: No: Agricultural crops:………… Animal husbandry:………… Forest/Timber & NTFP:………… Off farm:……………… Other:(specific)………………… How far from your home to the market? III Socio-economic factors Expense of tree planting - How is the cost of tree planting? High/ Low - How much we have to pay to plant of forest:………………………………………… Reasons:………………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………… …………………………………………………………………………………… Source of expense Amount Price Value Note Seedling Fertiliser Pesticide Hire labor (if any) Tools Transporting Others (specify) Silvicultural activities General information on tree planting - Type of tree used for planting? Long time/ Short time No Area (ha) Species Density Accessibility to the (trees/ha) plantation 66 Age of plantation (years) Select the accessibility: 1: difficult, have to walk; 2: regular, accessible by motorbike; 3: easy, accessible with car Attitudes/perception of tree planting What is your attitude Very Favourable Indifferent Unfavourable Very toward tree planting? favourable unfavourable What you think the Very Favourable Indifferent Unfavourable Very attitudes of other people favourable unfavourable towards establishment of tree plantation are? How important are the Very Important Indifferent Not important attitudes of other people to important you regarding your decision making on plantation establishment? Have you ever plant trees before? Yes/ No If Yes (go to 4), If No (go to 5) Why you plant trees? (Write reasons mentioned in an order of priority) Reasons (below) Rank in order of priority 1: Subsistence purpose 2: Economic or source of cash income 3: Environmental purpose 4: Social purpose 5: Other Will you plant tree in the future? Yes/No How many hectare? Question for the non-tree planters Why you not plant trees on your land? Have you ever plant trees on your land? Yes/No If yes, what kind of species have you planted and what was the main purpose? Do you want to plant trees in the future? Yes/ No If yes, which species and what is the main purpose? What are the advantages or disadvantages of tree planting in your opinion? Advantage: Disadvantages: Information related to tree planting decision 67 Who influenced your decision to tree planting What is the seedling source? Seedling accessibility Seedling quality Do you apply fertilizers & pesticides Do you practice yourself silvicultural plantation in your land Myself Government Company Other? Myself Easy Low Yes Government Company Moderate Moderate Other? Difficult Good No Yes No Plantation management How you think about forest management in your land? Why? Difficult/ Medium/ Easy Do you any management activities together with other tree planters in the area? If yes: Which activities? Risk and access to market Harvesting Who influenced your decision on when to harvest your trees? Why you plant to harvest at specific rotation length? Myself Rotation length: years Govern Company Other? ment Reasons: Do you think you can estimate the Yes No I don‟t know yield? Do you think you get a good price? Yes No I don‟t know Do you have good knowledge of Yes No I don‟t know market price Where you have information of market price? How did you use the revenues from * For regular consumption: harvesting and selling the trees? Rate: * For saving/investment: 1: not important, 2: important, 3: very * To unexpected expenditures: important Disadvantages What kind of disadvantages/problems you think Rank the importance: = not important; the tree planting can have 2= important; = very important 68 IV Biophysical factors What you think natural/climate condition in this region is suitable for planting tree? Yes/No Distance between your home and the field : ( meter) V Institutional and policy factors Which kind of incentives did you receive? And * Access to land ownership: Yes/ No…………… amount? * Seedling and material: Yes/No………………… * Help in extension/training: Yes/No…………… * Economic incentive: Yes/No…………………… * Help in marketing: Yes/No…………………… Where you take the money from? Forestry program/ Bank / Self investment/……… Where get the experience from? Rate the importance of different types of Not important Important (2) Very incentives regarding to your decision to plant trees (1) important (3) Economic incentives (money) Seedling and material (fertilizers) Help in education, training, extension Help in marketing Access to land Do you have land and tree rights? Yes No I don‟t know Do you have harvest and log transport rights? Yes No I don‟t know Do you know how to register forestry program Yes No Do you participate in forestry program? Which program did you choose? Why? Would you join the incentive program again (AR-CDM) Did you plant trees before receiving incentives? Yes No Why? Yes No Which species? Why? If you received economic incentives, how did you use them? 10 Do you think you will continue planting trees, and if yes under what conditions? 11 If you won‟t plant more trees, why not? Interviewee’s Signature 69 Table Frequency of people participating in forestry program Participation_forest_program Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Missing Total Total System 42 58 100 104 40.4 55.8 96.2 3.8 100.0 42.0 58.0 100.0 42.0 100.0 Figure Frequency distribution of total land area Table Distribution of distance to market of surveyed households Distance_to_market Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent 2 1.9 2.0 2.0 13 12.5 13.0 15.0 8.7 9.0 24.0 11 10.6 11.0 35.0 32 30.8 32.0 67.0 Valid 16 15.4 16.0 83.0 2.9 3.0 86.0 10 1.0 1.0 87.0 12 1.0 1.0 88.0 15 4.8 5.0 93.0 16 1.9 2.0 95.0 70 Missing Total 17 18 Total System 100 104 3.8 1.0 96.2 3.8 100.0 4.0 1.0 100.0 99.0 100.0 Table Description of discrete variables No Variable (node) Ethnicity Education of Education level assigned for each level household head Household Wealth Ranking Major income Major source of cash income sources Investment Sources of investment for tree planting capital Length of Type of tree used for planting rotation Attitude of tree Attitude/perception of household Very favorable=1; planting towards tree planting Favorable=2; Indifferent=3; Unfavorable=4; Very unfavorable=5 Experience An experience that tree planter has Yes=1; No=0 before Plantation Forest plantation management in Difficult=1; Medium=2; management household land Easy=3 Accessibility to Accessibility to the tree plantation Difficult, have to walk=1; plantation Medium, accessible by motorbike=2; Easy, accessible with car=3 Knowledge on Knowledge of tree planter on market Yes=1; No=0 price of outcome price of outcome Climate Idea of tree planter about climate Suitable=1; Unsuitable=0 condition condition that influences to tree planting Knowledge on Knowledge of tree planter on Good=1; Bad=0 silviculture silviculture by applying fertilizers & pesticides, as well as practicing silvicultural plantation Knowledge Knowledge of tree planter about forestry Yes=1; No=0 about forestry program, and how to register forestry program program 10 11 12 13 14 Description Ethnicity of household Household wealth ranking 71 States (range) Muong=1; Kinh=2; Others=3 Illiterate=1, Primary school=2, Secondary school=3, High above=4 Poor household=1; Moderate household=2; Rich household=3 Agriculture crops=1; Animal husbandry=2; Forest & NTFP=3; Off farm (including fruit trees planting)=4 Forestry program=1; Bank=2; Self investment=3 Long time=1; Short time=2 15 16 17 18 19 20 Participation for forestry program Main expense for tree planting Participation in forestry program in the future Main expense for tree planting Seedling and material (including fertilizer, pesticide); Taking care (including planting, hiring labor, transporting) Incentives Incentives from forestry program that support for tree planter Yes (including one of the among access to land ownership, seedling and material, help in extension/training, economic incentive, help in marketing), No means nether of those Tree harvest and Harvest and log transport rights for trees log transport in the household area rights Land tenure Land tenure of the household Yes=1; No=0 No expense=0; Seedling and materials=1; Taking care=2 Yes=1; No=0 Yes=1; No=0 Yes=1; No=0 Tree planting Tree planting decision of the household Yes=1; No=0 decision in the future Table Characteristics of surveyed households by communes with discrete variances Xuan Phong Bac Phong Commune T-test Parameters Commune (n=50) (n=50) P value (2 - tail) Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Education level of household head 3.16 0.817 3.22 0.840 0.718 Ethnicity 1.06 0.314 1.28 0.640 0.04 Household ranking 1.88 0.799 2.10 0.839 0.175 Major income sources 1.24 0.675 2.12 1.452 0.000 Investment capital 1.28 0.970 1.56 1.296 0.260 Length of rotation 1.26 0.443 1.32 0.471 0.444 Attitude of tree planting 2.54 1.034 2.94 1.252 0.063 Experience 0.72 0.454 0.66 0.479 0.518 Plantation management 1.70 0.863 1.62 0.855 0.622 Accessibility to plantation 2.14 0.764 1.94 0.818 0.168 Knowledge on price of outcome 0.48 0.505 0.58 0.499 0.341 Knowing about forestry program 0.69 0.466 0.46 0.503 0.013 Climate condition 0.64 0.485 0.74 0.443 0.255 Knowledge on silviculture 0.72 0.454 0.32 0.471 0.000 Participation for prorest program 0.64 0.485 0.52 0.505 0.224 Main expense 1.38 0.753 1.08 0.829 0.062 Incentives 0.70 0.463 0.35 0.481 0.000 Tree harvest and transport rights 0.78 0.418 0.72 0.454 0.497 Land tenure 0.88 0.328 0.90 0.303 0.766 Tree planting decision 0.56 0.501 0.34 0.479 0.015 72 Table Correlation between households’ characteristic and tree planting decision Drivers effect on tree planting P value decision Participation forest program 0.000** Attitude forward tree planting 0.000** Knowing about forestry program 0.000** Knowledge on silviculture 0.000** Accessibility to plantation 0.002* Length of rotation 0.000** Distance to market 0.008* Incentives 0.000** Expense 0.015* Investment capital 0.033* Knowledge on price of outcome 0.038* * Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed) Pearson Correlation 0.688 -0.388 0.373 0.346 0.313 0.268 0.266 0.259 0.243 0.213 0.207 Sign -2 -6 10 11 ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed) Table Correlation between households’ characteristic and forest area will be planted Drivers effect on forest area will be P value planted Attitude of tree planting 0.000** Participation forest program 0.000** Knowledge on Silviculture 0.002* Knowing about forestry program 0.003* Length of rotation 0.013* Investment capital 0.015* Distance to market 0.016* Harvest and transport rights 0.023* Incentives 0.025* Total land area 0.033* * Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed) ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed) 73 Pearson Correlation 0.388 0.384 0.308 0.297 0.246 0.242 0.240 0.227 0.226 0.214 Sign -1 -5 10 Table Summary of significant relationships among tree planting decision and indicators for planting tree in Cao Phong district Knowledg e on Participation of silvicultur forest program e (0=no; ( 0=no; 1=yes) 1=yes) Tree planting Knowing decision Attitude Number about of tree of labor forestry planting program Model summary of binary logistic regression Distance to market Tree planting decision Land tenure 687 -.674 2.331 Unstandardized Coefficients S.E 334 322 529 Standardized Coefficients Beta t Sig 19.418 000 10.286 Chi-square Df Sig Model Summary -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square Predicted percentage correct (%) 54.130 000 23.114 000 59.192a 463 96.099b 233 636 313 83.9 75.9 Attitude of tree planting Investment capital Length of rotation Distance to market Accessibility to plantation Model summary of linear regression B Wald 4.248 4.394 Df 1 Sig .039 036 Exp(B) 1.988 510 Omnibus tests of model coefficients Distance to the field Investment capital B=-7.661; Std Error = 1.324 -.483 B=.000; Std Error = 000 247 B=-.743; Std Error = 288 -.213 B=-.644; Std Error = 306 -.177 B=-1.089; Std Error =.224 -.428 B=-.085; Std Error =.025 -.283 B=.333; Std Error = 128 -5.787 000 2.962 004 -2.581 012 -2.104 038 -4.858 000 -3.320 001 2.603 011 230 ANOVA Mean square F Sig Model Summary R R Square Regression = 153.800; Residual = 9.536 16.128 000 Regression = 14.210; Residual = 920 15.447 000 661 437 573 328 Adjusted R Square Std Error of the Estimate 410 307 3.088 959 74 Table Summary of significant relationships among forest area will be planted drivers and indicators in Cao Phong district Participation of forest program ( 0=no; 1=yes) Forest area will be planted Knowing Attitude about forestry of tree program planting Model summary of binary logistic regression Distance to market Forest area will be planted Attitude of tree planting Model summary of linear regression B 1.343 -.772 Unstandardized Coefficients S.E 502 236 Standardized Coefficients Beta t Sig Wald 6.677 Df Sig .013 Exp(B) 7.108 Omnibus tests of model coefficients 10.665 010 3.829 Land tenure Forest land area Total household income Length of rotation Distance to market Accessibil ity to plantation Participati on forest program Incentiv e B=-.644; Std.=.30 B=.991; Sd=.008 B=.002;Sd =.001 B=1.089;Sd =.224 B=-.085; Sd=.025 333 B=-.900; Sd.=.221 B=-.487; Sd.=.218 -.213 -.177 990 035 -.428 -.283 230 -.382 -.209 -5.787 000 -2.581 012 -2.104 038 120.706 000 4.257 000 -4.858 000 -3.320 001 2.603 011 -4.071 000 -2.229 028 ANOVA Mean square Df Sig Model Summary -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square Predicted percentage (%) 000 F 16.128 Sig .000 Model Summary R 661 R Square 437 74.5 Investme nt capital Attitude of tree planting B=-.743; Std.=.288 22.541 313 Investment capital B=7.661; Std.=1 324 -.483 Chi-square 90.780 228 Total land area Adjusted R Square Std of the Estimate Regression =615.199 Regression=10929.61 764.065 000 Regression=42.629 Regression=31.554 15.447 000 14.903 000 997 994 573 328 489 239 410 994 307 223 3.088 846 959 1.029 75 Table Difference of socio-economic and household characteristic between tree planter and non-tree planter in Cao Phong district T-test Tree planter (n=45) Non-tree planter P value (n=55) Parameters Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev (2 - tail) Ethnicity Education_level Age_of_household_head Number_of_labor Household_ranking Total_land_area Forest_land_area Total_household_income 1.09 3.20 44.84 2.96 1.98 4.36 3.60 85.11 358 757 11.131 1.086 783 5.494 5.285 147.238 1.24 3.18 47.38 3.27 2.00 3.69 3.11 103.18 607 884 9.691 1.146 861 13.375 13.437 165.617 280 599 254 286 1.000 926 1.000 526 Major_income_sources 1.71 1.199 1.65 1.220 815 Investment_capital 1.69 1.083 1.20 1.161 060 Distance_to_market 7.89 4.574 5.85 2.811 015 Legth_of_rotation 1.16 367 1.40 494 003 Attitude_of_tree_planting 2.24 1.004 3.15 1.129 001 78 420 62 490 060 Plantation_management 1.73 915 1.60 807 498 Accessibility_to_plantation 2.31 793 1.81 729 002 Knowledge_on_price_of_outcome 64 484 44 501 073 Climate_condition 76 435 64 485 229 Knowledge_on_silviculture 71 458 36 485 000 2164.44 2105.205 2162.61 2840.279 520 Register_forestry_program 78 420 41 496 000 Participation_forest_program 96 208 27 449 000 1.44 659 1.05 870 018 Incentives 67 477 41 496 009 Harvest_and_transport_rights 82 387 69 466 031 Land_tenure 91 288 87 336 372 Area_planted 1.69 1.917 00 000 000 Experience Distance_to_the_field Expense 76 ... Goal: Analyzing key drivers of tree planting from local people with Bayesian Network in order to provide suggestion in increasing planting forest in Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province  The main... protecting and managing forest in Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province Source:http://investinvietnam.vn/data/image/HoaBinh.jpg Figure 3.1 .The map of Hoa Binh province 3.1.2 Cao Phong district. .. analyzing the key drivers of tree planting from local people in Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province, Vietnam with Bayesian Network to be my study in order to have a better understanding of community