Impact of road infrastructure development on properties price in ha noi city Impact of road infrastructure development on properties price in ha noi city Impact of road infrastructure development on properties price in ha noi city Impact of road infrastructure development on properties price in ha noi city Impact of road infrastructure development on properties price in ha noi city Impact of road infrastructure development on properties price in ha noi city
VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVESITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY LE THIEN TRUNG IMPACT OF ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ON PROPERTIES PRICE IN HA NOI CITY MASTER’S THESIS Hanoi, 2020 VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVESITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY LE THIEN TRUNG IMPACT OF ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ON PROPERTIES PRICE IN HA NOI CITY MASTER’S THESIS MAJOR: INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING CODE: 8900201.04QTD RESEARCH SUPERVISORS Prof HIRONORI KATO Dr PHAN LE BINH Hanoi, 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TABLE OF CONTENTS I LIST OF TABLES II LIST OF FIGURES iii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS iv ABSTRACTS v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Background and necessity of study 1.3 Objective of study 1.4 Scope of study CHAPTER 2: LITERETURE REVIEW 12 2.1 The relationship between infrastructure investment and real estate 12 2.2 Overview of related policies in Viet Nam 14 CHAPTER METHODOLY 17 3.1 Differences-in-differences Methods 17 3.2 Hedonic Pricing Methods 20 CHAPTER 4: POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ROAD INFREASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ON HOUSING PRICES 21 4.1 Data characteristics 21 4.2 GIS-based database development 24 CHAPTER 5: MODELS 29 5.1 Baseline Model 29 5.2 Differences-in-differences in Stata Application 35 5.3 Estimate Results 37 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION 50 REFERENCES 51 REFFERENCE ON RELATED OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS 53 I LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1.1 Land Price List at Tay Ho District (Attached to the Decision No 30/2019 / QD-UBND dated December 31, 2019 of the Hanoi People's Committee) Table 1.2 LAND PRICES IN NEW URBAN AREAS, AUCTION AREA, RESETTLEMENT AREA, AND HIGH-TECH PARK (Attached to the Decision No 30/2019 / QD-UBND dated December 31, 2019 of the People's Committee of Hanoi City Table 1.3 Table of house price comparison between 2014 and 2019 Table 3.1 Simple differences-in-differences 18 Table 4.1 Definitions of Potential Variables for Properties Price Functions in 20142019 22 Table 5.1 Descriptive statistics of variables used in property price functions in 2014 and 2019 33 Table 5.2 Correlation between potential explanatory variable 35 Table 5.3 Table of data collection of samples of the buffer zone below 50m in 2014-2019 37 Table 5.4 Estimation Results of Difference-in-Differences on case of Properties Price Functions (N=567) 40 Table 5.5 Estimation Results of Difference-in-Differences on case of Properties Price Functions (N=567) 42 Table 5.6 Estimation Results of Difference-in-Differences on case of Properties Price Functions (N=567) 43 Table 5.7 Estimation Results of Difference-in-Differences on case of Properties Price Functions (N=567) 45 II LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1.1 Administrative map of Ha Noi City Figure 1.2 The map divides 12 groups of urban districts and choose scope of study Figure 1.3 Boundary of wards of Tay Ho district 10 Figure 3.1 Graphical of Differences-in-differences explanation 19 Figure 4.1 The boundary network system and existing transportation system of Tay Ho district 26 Figure 4.2 Population of each ward over the years 2014-2019 27 Figure 4.3 Collection‟s sample in 2014-2019 by GIS-base 29 Figure 5.1 Import data collections and analysis into Data Application using excel….38 Figure 5.2 How to perform finding Robust Standard Error value in Stata 39 Figure 5.3 Observed property prices versus estimated property prices (Mode choice in Case 1) 47 Figure 5.4 Observed property prices versus estimated property prices (Mode choice in Case 2) 48 Figure 5.5 Observed property prices versus estimated property prices (Mode choice in Case 3) 49 Figure 5.6 Observed property prices versus estimated property prices (Mode choice in Case 4) 50 III LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS DID PD_50 PD_100 PD_200 PD_500 ED_50 ED_100 ED_200 ED_500 SD_50 SD_100 SD_200 SD_500 D_WL D_MR D_Fa D_PA BA_S BA_MA U_Plan PP Differences-in-Differences Method Population Density in buffer zone 50m Population Density in buffer zone 100m Population Density in buffer zone 200m Population Density in buffer zone 500m Employment Density in buffer zone 50m Employment Density in buffer zone 100m Employment Density in buffer zone 200m Employment Density in buffer zone 500m Street Density in buffer zone 50m Street Density in buffer zone 100m Street Density in buffer zone 200m Street Density in buffer zone 500m Distance to West Lake Distance to Main Road Distance to Facilities Distance to Public Area Business Advantage - Stores Business Advantage – Mini Apartment Urban Planning Properties Prices IV Exchange rate: USD = 21,215 VND (year 2014) and 23,162 VND (year 2019) ABSTRACTS This study aimed to quantitatively analyze the impact of road infrastructure developments in Hanoi city on real estate price in residential areas surrounding the development A cross-sectional analysis using Difference-In-Difference method was applied Data on property price was collected in Tay Ho district of Hanoi city in the year of 2014 and 2019 Hedonic method was applied to estimate housing price as a function of variables representing attributes of the house (area, number of floors, car accessibility, etc.), accessibility to urban facilities (distance to new road, distance to main street, distance to public facility, distance to the West Lake etc.) and attributes of neighborhood (population density, employment density, street density etc.) First, result of this study confirmed that projects for road infrastructure development caused an impact on housing prices in its surrounding area Second, treatment group, defined as properties in 500 meters radius from the new road, received impact from the road investment while the others located farther away (defined as control group) did not receive this impact Finally, the result showed that the selling price of properties in the treatment group after the opening of the new road is around 6-14% higher than the control group V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Professor Hironori Kato, Dr Phan Le Binh, Ms Nguyen Thi Mai Chi for your invaluable instructions, advices and support for my thesis I am also indebted to the government of Tay Ho district, especially the office of Urban Management for providing me related data and documents I am also grateful to two companies who supported me in achieving data on individual property prices in Ho Tay district Finally, I am particularly grateful for my classmate, my family and other professors, lecturers for your great help and support during my two years study in Vietnam Japan University VI CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction Located northwest of the center of the Red River Delta, Hanoi is located from 20° 53' to 21°23' Northern latitude and 105° 44' to 106° 02' East longitude It borders with Thai Nguyen and Vinh Phuc provinces in the North, Ha Nam, Hoa Binh in the South, Bac Giang, Bac Ninh and Hung Yen in the East, Hoa Binh and Phu Tho in the West Hanoi is 120 km from Hai Phong port city, 87 km from Nam Dinh city forming the main poles of the Red River Delta After the administrative boundary expansion in August 2008, the city covers an area of 3,324.92 km², located on both sides of the Red River, but urban activities concentrate mainly on the right bank Hanoi has 30 district-level administrative units, including 12 urban districts, 17 suburban districts and one town; formed by 579 commune-level administrative units, including 383 communes, 175 wards and 21 towns 55% of the population lives in urban areas and 45% of the population lives in rural areas The system of urban infrastructure Hanoi City is a comprehensive and covers many fields of both technical and social infrastructure In the scope of this research, only the urban technical infrastructure system is mainly concerned with: transport system (including road network, railway, public transport system, parking lot); urban of water supply system; drainage and treatment system In general, in recent years, the urban infrastructure system of Hanoi City has changed significantly, gradually changing the appearance of the city in a synchronized, modern way and playing an increasingly important role in the socioeconomic development of the City However, the infrastructure system is still weak and inadequate, insufficient to meet the needs of the people, the requirements of socio-economic development and the requirements of a civilized and modern city of stature which is the capital of a country The city's transport network includes inner-city ring roads, urban trunk roads, provincial roads and urban roads Up to now, many projects of road construction, upgrading and renovation have been implemented: Ring Road I, Kim Lien - O Cho Dua Section, Ring Road 3, Thanh Tri Bridge Ring Road, Ring Road 3, Linh Dam Mai Road Translate, Road extends the section of Chui - Dong Tru - North Thang Long, Lac Long Quan Road, Cat Linh - La Thanh - Yen Lang Road, Le Trong Tan Road, Phuc La - Van Phu Road, Construction, opening and upgrading of roads have contributed to improve the flow and reduced the overload pressure on the city transport network Currently, the City has 16,093 km of roads with an average road density of 4.81km / km2, of which the City manages 1,757km of road, 373 bridges / 24,315meters with the narrowest road cross section; 13,902km of roads is managed by districts, towns and more than 12,946km of rural roads The ratio of land area for transportation is low, about 7-8% (compared to the planned target of 20-25%) Average road density (km / km2) and ratio of land area for transportation in areas (%): Historical inner-city area (including 04 old inner-city districts) 5.94km / km2, 11 , 38%; the expanded inner city area (from ring road to Nhue river) 3.64 km / km2, 7.85%; the expansion area south of the Red River (from Nhue River to Ring Road 4) 0.67km / km2, 3.82%; the expansion area north of the Red and South rivers of Ca Lo River is 1.18 km / km2, 2.74%; suburban districts and satellite urban area 0.61km / km2, 1.84% These indicators show that the road network is still very low compared to the requirements It is a commonly asked and investigated question whether the construction of new road has a positive effect on regional economic performance In Vietnam one can often read in the newspapers that one alleged purpose of building new road is to help improved the existing road and solve complicated traffic problems (traffic jam, traffic service) In this thesis, analysis of the impact of the vicinity of infrastructures engineering on a specific area of the economy, the residential properties market, in particular residential property prices In Vietnam, there are least some reasons why one might think that the emergence of the new roads has a positive effect on the real estate First, it has a direct effect for the residents nearby since they turn out be “closer” to desirable lactations measured by the duration of travel time The second, and presumable ... NATIONAL UNIVESITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY LE THIEN TRUNG IMPACT OF ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ON PROPERTIES PRICE IN HA NOI CITY MASTER’S THESIS MAJOR: INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING... to define the true impact of road infrastructure development on properties prices in Ha Noi city using the regression formula of DID analysis: Where: ) ) interaction term (which use to indicate... development and development of new infrastructure systems in Tay Ho District, Hanoi City are the construction and expansion of new roads alongside the main roads of the district's internal road network