Nhom nganh bat dpng san ciing kem tieh cUe vi thi trUcfng quj^ I roi vio vung triing nha't (ca do tbi trUdng chung v i t h i n g nghi le); lpi nhuan cua nhom nganh nay tbUcfng rc[r]
(1)DAU Tl/TAI CHINH
II
THI TRl/OfNG
CHIJNG
KHOAN THANG VA
•
KICH BAN THANG 4/2011
N
bUng dien bien mdi nha't bai t h i n g dau nam 2011 ciia tinh binh the gidi (gii xang, gii lUomg thifc v i gii cic hang boa ccf ban xu the gia tang manh) v i nudc (gii xing v i gii dien bi dieu chinh manh; lam phat tang cao, ty gia boi doii thay ddi ccf che dieu b i n h , dU trU ngoai bdi mong; t h i m hut thUUng mai cao v i dai dang; tinh trang la hda va vang boa cao dp; Iii suit tang caoanh budng nhieu den boat dpng s i n xui't kinh doanh cua cae doanh nghiep ) cho tha'y Viet Nam dang dUng trUde nbUng thii thach ri't gay gat, b i t dn vi mo dang de dpa sU p h i t trien ben vUng cua nen kinh te Vi the, on dinh kinh te vi mo la muc tieu ta't yeu v i lUa chpn nha't thdi diem hien
Thing cung I i t h i n g Ngan hang N h i nUdc ban banh ri't nhieu thong tU quan ly thi
ThS N g u y i n Thi Ngoc Tii DH Sai Gon trudng n g i n hang, tien te Vdi dinh hudng that chat tien te de dn dinh vi mo, Ngan h i n g N h i nude da tang lai suit t i i chiet khau va t i i cip von len 12% tu 8/3/2011 Day cung la dien bien can co v i hpp ly de ban che tinh trang cic ngan bang tbUPng mai ldn t i n dung nghiep vu tai chiet khi'u vdi lai suit thi'p de kinh doanh "vdn" tren thi trUcfng lien n g i n bang Theo do, eie ngudn life se co ccf bpi dupe phan bd hieu qua hcfn
nganhang
(2)I I DAU Tl/TAI CHINH
v i se true tiep di v i o khu vifc doanh n g h i e p
T h i n g t i e p tuc I i t h i n g kho k h a n cho t b i trUdng chUng k h o i n (TTCK) Viet N a m Chi sd' VN-Index dong cda cuoi t h i n g d g a n mufc md cua t h i n g va ciing n a m mUc t h i p n h i ' t la mUc gia dong cda ciia t h i n g Chi so' HNX-Index t i e p tuc di xuong va da CO mUc d i y tha'p hon t r o n g t h i n g nhUng mUc dp mi't diem k h o n g d i n g k e Khoi lupng giao dich k h d p l e n h t h i n g t a n g len t r e n ca b a i s i n giao dich n h u n g khoi lUpng giao dich h a n g n g i y v i n d mdc tha'p, t r u n g b i n h t h i n g d mUc t r e n 30 trieu cd pbie'u/1 p h i e n dd^i vdi s i n HOSE v i 29 trieu cd phie'u/1 p h i e n do'i vdi s i n HNX
D i l n b i e n c u a TTCK t h a n g VN-Index gidm 0,24 diem
VN-Index dong cufa p h i e n giao dich t h i n g 03/2011 giam 0,24 diem so vdi p h i e n cud^i t h i n g 2, t a i mUc 461,13 diem Kho'i lupng giao dich b i n h q u i n mdi p h i e n t r e n H O S E d a t 34,92 t r i e u ed phie'u/phien, vdi g i i t r i 778,14 ty ddng T r o n g 10 n g i y dau t i e n cua t h i n g , chi sd VN-Index l i e n t u c t a n g d i e m n h d sif t i n g d i e m cua n h o m cd p h i e u vdn h d a ldn nhU CTG, VIC, BVH, VPL T r o n g 10 p h i e n giao dich t i e p theo, H O S E chUng kie'n h i n h a n h ngUpe
l a i k h i chi sd VN-Index lien tuc g i a m d i e m n h o m cd p h i e u vd^n h o a l d n l i e n tuc bi kbd^i n g o a i b i n r o n g v i g i a m d i e m T r o n g k h i dong t i e n d a u cP npi chay m a n h vao c i c cd p h i e u b e n s i n HNX t a o m p t s o n g t a n g g i i m a n h k h i e n n h i e u cd phieu CO mUe t a n g tU 30 -50% n h u S H N , VND, HDO, NHA, TNG, VCG T h d i gian lai cua t h i n g I i thcfi d i e m ca h a i s i n bUdc vao chu ky g i a m d i e m nhUng c i c chi so' v i n cao hcfn mUc t h i p n h i ' t t r o n g t h i n g
T a i H O S E , t r o n g t h i n g 3, co 220 m a g i a m v i 60 m i t a n g T r o n g co 12 m i g i a m t r e n 20% v i m a t a n g t r e n 20% P h i a t i n g gia, d a n dau la I P S , t a n g 42,2% tU 10.900 l e n 15.500 ddng I P S t a n g hcfn 42% t r o n g t h i n g trUdc, viec K i r i n Holdings -t a p d o i n dd ud^ng cua N h i -t B a n - cong bo' da mua l a i t o a n bp cd p h a n t a i T r a d e Ocean Holdings (cong ty m e cua Cong t y Cd p h a n Thifc p h a m Quo'c t e - IPS) qua g i i n t i e p n a m 57,25% cd p h a n cua I P S ASM eung t a n g g a n 40% C i c m i k h i c CO mUc t i n g t r e n 20% I i VPL (25,5%), VIC (22,4%), DCC (22,1%) va H T l (21,5%) P h i a g i a m gia, d i n dau I i t a n b i n h CCL cua C o n g ty Cd p h a n D a u tU v i P h i t t r i e n Do t h i Dau k b i Cufu Long, g i a m , % xudng 14.500 ddng C h a o s i n n g a y 3/3 vdi
gia dong cufa I i 27.500 ddng, CCL da dUng g i i p h i e n ke t i e p , g i a m n h e p h i e n sau do, rdi budc vao chudi g i a m s i n 13 p h i e n l i e n t i e p tU 8-24/3 F P C dUng thU b a i vdi mUc g i a m % xuo'ng 3.300 ddng Vdi viec Id b a n i m lien t i e p t h i cd p h i e u n a y ' s e sdm bi b a t buoc h u y n i e m yet C i c m i g i a m m a n h k h i c la CLG (-28,2%), CAD (-26,9%), DVD (-24,9%)
HNX-Index gidm 4,45 diem
Sau mpt t h i n g giao dich HNX giam 4,45 diem tUcfng dUcfng 4,63%, b i e n dpng k b i m a n h t r o n g t h i n g
Trong t h i n g 3, co 289 ma giam va 80 m i t i n g Trong do, CO 36 m i giam t r e n 20% v i m i t a n g t r e n 20% P h i a t i n g g i i , co ba m i t a n g t r e n 50% gdm NHA (87,7%), P W (72,2%) v i BHT (53,1%) N g a y 24/3, NHA d i chdt d a n h s i c h cd dong de chia cd tUc b a n g cd phieu ty le 50% Dau t h i n g 3, P W d i hoan t i t viec c h i o b i n 25 trieu cd phieu eho cd dong h i e n hUu v i dd^i t i c chien lUpc G i i b i n cho do'i t i c chien lUpc la 11.000 ddng t r o n g thi gia h i e n t a i la h p n 22.000 ddng Cac m i t i n g gia m a n h k h i c I i YBC (48,4%), BTS (47,4%), PVG (41,7%), GBS (29%) Trong k h i n h o m cd phieu chUng k h o i n di xud^ng thi viec GBS t a n g g i i I i k h i bi't thudng
:dngngh7 nganhang
(3)DAU Tl/TAI CHINH
P h i a g i a m g i i , co ma giam t r e n 40% I i TBX (-44,2%), MKV (-43,4%), YSC (-40,5%) va LCD (-40,3%) NhOng phien eudi t h i n g , TBX bi dd b i n s i n ri't m a n h , CO chudi p h i e n s i n lien tiep tu 21-25/3 N g i y 25/3, Uy ban ChUng k h o a n da r a quyet dinh xii p h a t ba c i n h i n vi da sii dung 24 t a i k h o a n de thao tiing g i i cd phieu MKV n i m 2010 Cd phieu n a y tU I x da leo len 8x rdi lai t r d ve Ix
T o n g hcfp g i a o d i c h n h a d a u tvC nu'dfc n g o a i t r o n g t h a n g
Trong t h i n g vUa qua, khoi ngoai da mua rong 20 ty ddng tai HOSE va 171 ty ddng t a i HNX
Trong t h i n g 3, khoi ngoai mua b i n rong dan xen t r e n ca bai s a n giao dich; chi quay trd lai xu hudng mua rong vao nhiJng phien giao dich cud^i t h i n g vdi lu png mua rong tri d mUc t h i p Co the d i y I i dpng t h i i n i n g dd NAV cua khd^i ngoai bdi nien dp b i o c i o t a i chinh cua mpt sd^ to chUc k e t thuc vao 31/3 h a n g n a m Trong t h i n g , chiing t a chUng kie'n boat dpng ccf c i u d a n h muc m a n h me ciia khdi ngoai d i e biet la c i c quy E T F , m i hp t i n g mua m a n h v i o cic cd phieu nhU CTG, VCG, VCB, GMD va giam ty t r p n g sd hUu BVH, REE N g o i i ra, khdi ngoai co ve thifc h i e n chien t h u a t lUdt song n h a m
giam g i i vd'n ddi vdi c i c ed phieu n h o m n g a n h chUng k h o i n n h u SSI, BVS, KLS (mua b i n rong dan xen) Tai HOSE, t h i n g 3, ca lupng v i g i i t r i mua v a o / b i n r a eiia n h a dau tU ngoai deu d mUe cao Tdng lupng mua vao d a t 85,6 trieu dcfn vi, t r i g i i 2.700 ty ddng, t a n g g a n 1.000 ty so vdi t h i n g v i k e m t h i n g I i 400 ty ddng Lupng
tif dau n a m P h i a b a n rong, d i n dau v i n la VIC vdi trieu dun vi, tUPng dUPng 235 ty ddng Tinh tU dau n i m tdi nay, cd phieu n a y t a n g 34%, t u 97.500 len 131.000 ddng v i n h a dau tU ngoai b i n rong 4,3 trieu dcfn vi, tUOng dUcfng 464 ty ddng HAG cung bi b i n m a n h vdi 3,68 trieu don vi, tUcfng duong 165 ty ddng Tuy n h i e n , nhifng p h i e n g a n day khoi ngoai d i dUng b i n
Ma CK KL mua rong | MCK | KL ban rong
Top mua, ban rong HSX CTG DPM LAP FPT PHR SBT GMD OGC 17.545.840 1.638.650 1.136.720 1.080.090 869.840 849.110 839.680 832.730 HAG DVD CSM REE BCI HSG HPG PVF 3.761.490 3.189.820 1717.350 1.647.300 958.070 844.650 724.330 616.070
Ma CK KL mua rong | MCK | KL ban rong
Top mua, ban rong HNX VCG PVS PVX SCR THV BLF VND STL 7.140.700 1.765.000 750.000 677.500 253.500 203.700 151.100 107.100 KLS BVS TDN ICG OCH PVl HBS CTN 2.013.900 453.500 294700 290.000 275.400 173.600 166.800 143.100
b i n r a d a t 2.680 ty ddng, t r i g i i 2.680 ty ddng - cao bun b a n so vdi mUc 1.734 ty ciia t h i n g va 1.676 ty ddng ciia t h i n g C h e n h leeh mua b i n d a t h d n trieu don vi, tUcfng dUUng 20,7 ty ddng
Tai HNX, khd^i ngoai mua r o n g g a n trieu dcfn vi, tUorng duong 171 ty ddng, t a p trung chu yeu vao hai m a VCG va PVS T i n h chung ca quy I, khd^i ngoai da mua rong 1.445 ty ddng t a i HOSE va 456 ty ddng t a i HNX
Diem n h i n giao dich ciia kbd^i ngoai t h i n g qua la viec hp "gom" m a n h hai m a CTG va VCG Trong m a CTG da dupc khdi ngoai mua rong bun 21,8 trieu dOn vi cd phieu, t r i g i i 640 ty ddng t i n h
K h u y e n n g h i k i c h b a n t h a n g
Co t h e noi eac chinh s i c h k i n h te vi mo ccf b a n nha't a n h hudng tdi TTCK n g a n b a n da xay r a t h i n g v i t h i n g 3/2011 Tuy n h i e n , TTCK k h o n g chi a n h hudng bdi thdi diem cac ehinh s i c h dupe b a n h a n h m a tU k e t qua thifc b i e n c i c chinh s i c h Vdi muc tieu kiem che l a m p h i t v i giii g i i ddng npi t e , c i c bien p b i p m a n h tay n h i ' t d i dupc dUa r a nbU n i n g I i i s u i t CO ban, I i i s u i t t i i cap vdn, t h a t c h i t tin dung dUdi mUc 20%, d i e biet do'i vdi t h i trUcfng b i t dpng s a n v i chUng k h o i n , k i e m soat t b i trUdng v i n g v i t h i trUdng ngoai te t u do, t h i trudng boa c i c m a t b i n g t h i e t yeu t h a y vi t r p gia
(4)Mii DAU Tl/TAI CHINH
va kiem che nbu gii dien, x i n g dau, than NbUng chinh
sich d i budc dau p h i t huy t i c dung nbUng nen kinh te dudng nhu dang bi kim nen qui manh dUdi hang loat cic bien p b i p banh chinh cung xay thcfi gian ngan nen se m i t them it nhi't 1-2 t h i n g niia mdi chinh tbUe dupe dinh binh
Theo t i c gia, cic yeu to' t i c dpng vao TTCK t h i n g 4:
• Bao cao tai chinh quy I se khong Ii bUc tranh sing: tinh mua vu t h i p diem v i kho khan cic chi phi dau vio gia t i n g khien bao cio tai chinh quy I ciia cic doanh nghiep niem yet tren binh dien chung kho long la mpt bUc tranh sing Hien tUpng bio cao 16 quy I cua cic cong ty chUng khoin, b i t dpng san hoac cic cong ty san xua't co chi phi t i i chinh ldn dUpc chd dpi Tuy vay, t i e dpng tieu cUc len thi trudng se chu yeu ngan ban va mang tinh cue bp bio cio t i i chinh quy I khong phai la kim chi nam ve xu hudng lpi nhuan ca nam Bio cao tai chinh quy I se co t i c dung phan boa cac cong ty CO kha nang chong chiu kho khan; tri s i n xui't dn dinh, tang trudng nam 2011 Cac thong tin tU mua dai bpi cd dong se giup thi trUcfng CO cii nhin bUdc dau ve xu budng lpi nhuan nam 2011 cua cac doanh nghiep niem yet
• Tinh hinh kinh te va chinh tri the gidi eiing dong mpt vai tro nhi't dinh: nhUng sif kien mang tinb qud^e te nhu thien tai tai Nhat Ban hay tinh binh cing thang tai cic quoc gia khu vifc nhieu dau md (Ai Cap, Lybia ) mdi d i y da cho t h i y kha nang t i c dpng giin tiep mang tinh tam ly v i thong qua sif gia t i n g gii ca cic yeu td^ dau vao nen kinh te den TTCK NhUng cang t h i n g tai khu vUc dau md CO the day gii dau tang cao hoac tinh trang khiing hoang tai chinh cua mpt sd^ qud^e gia chau Au hoan toan CO the giin tiep lam cham lai b i t cU cupc phuc bdi n i o cda TTCK
Tic gia du doan nhom n g i n h chdng k h o i n va quan ly quy se bi anh hudng ldn nhi't quy I; da sd^ se bi thua 16 khoan thi trUdng kem, danh muc tU doanh da phan giam khoang 20% -30% Nhom nganh bat dpng san ciing kem tieh cUe vi thi trUcfng quj^ I roi vio vung triing nha't (ca tbi trUdng chung v i t h i n g nghi le); lpi nhuan cua nhom nganh tbUcfng rcfi vio quy III-IV NgUpc lai, mpt s6' nhom nganh co kha nang se cd ket qua kinh doanh tich cUc nhU n g i n h hang tieu dung thiet yeu (thifc phi'm, dd uong -do ban b i n g v i o mua cao diem), cong nghe th6ng tin va tai nguyen thien nhien (do gii nguyen lieu co xu budng tang manh)
Tom lai, TTCK t h i n g dupc du doin se tiep tuc chiu ap luc tu cic chinh sich vi m6 nhu t h i n g va t h i n g tbi kho co the ky vpng vio kha n i n g dot phi cua thi trudng ca ve chi sd Index va khoan Do ben nam giO cd phieu d i cam eif dupe qua nhOng thdi diem thi trudng kho k h i n nhi't nen it co kha nang s i n sang xa hang d mUc gii t h i p hom NgUpc lai, kinh te' vi mo chUa p h i t di cic tin hieu tich cUc v i ehi phi ccf boi so vdi tien gufi n g i n hing cao tbi ben mua se tiep tuc t h a n trpng dat mua cao hpn gii tham chieu; khoan thi trUdng co the se tiep tuc tri d mUc t h i p Do do, tbi trudng hien v i n chUa phu hpp vdi dau tU ludt sdng ngan ban va ding don bay, nbUng I i thcfi diem hpp ly de tich liiy cd phieu hudng tdi tang trUdng nufa cu6i nam 2011 neu cic chinh sach vi m6 bien p h i t buy t i c dung"