Tổng quan kinh tế Việt Nam năm 2010 và dự báo năm 2011

Cdng ddng doanh nghiep, nha't la cac doanh nghiep vQa va nhd vQa trai qua "con bao" khung hoang tai chinh toan cau, dang trong qua trinh hoi phuc; mdt so tap doan kinh te ldn [r]

T O N G Q U A N K I N H T E V I E T N A M N A M V A D L / B A O N A M 1

BAN PHAN TICH VA PL/ BAO

Trung tdm Thdng tin va Da bao kinh te - xd hdi guoc gia

In 2010, Vietnam gained recordable economic achieve-ments with many planned targets being accomplished and exceeded Several features in economic developments in 2010 can be described as follows: economic quarterly growth rates were steadily higher; develop-ment investdevelop-ment capital remained high; trade deficit was controlled in line with planned target; however, inflation still highly Increased and was hard to be restrained; there was lack of consistencies and coordina-tion between fiscal and mone-tary policies

Based on analyses of interna-tional as well as domestic condi-tions, Department of Macro Analysis and Forecast under National Center for Socio-eco-nomic Information and Forecast provides forecasts on several macro economic indicators for 2011 as follows: GDP growth rate Is estimated at 7-7.5%; inflation is expected to be controlled at sin-gle digit; trade deficit is predict-ed to be restrainpredict-ed at 13 billion USD; ratio of total social saving per GDP is estimated at 31% In 2011, directions for macro regu-lation are suggested as follows: to strictly manage FDI inflows; to concentrate on improving invest-ment efficiency; to tighten fiscal policy and closely control over borrowing activities of public sector; to address shortcomings in managing state budget

1 Tong quan kinh te Viet Nam nim 2010

a Tdc tang tudng kinh te tang dan qua cac quy

Nam 2010, tdc tang trudng cac quy deu cao hon cung ky nam 2009 Tfnh chung ca nam 2010, tang trQdng tdng san pham qudc npi (GDP) dat 6,78%; tang 1,46 diem % so vdi nam 2009

Tdc tang trudng GDP Viet Nam giai doan 2008-2010 8.0

7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

v7.38

5.98 5.85

7.34

3.14

' *p J** J& <Sf* N<£ N^ Ns£ N«f*

# # -# of ^ ^ ^ ^ ^N ^ ^s

- TSng trUdng GDP phia cau: Trong co cau GDP phia cau, tieu dung cudi cung ludn chiem ty le ldn nhat, dd, tieu dung tu nhan chie'm tdi tren 60% GDP, giQ vai trd dong life tang trQdng kinh te Nam 2010, tdng mQc ban le hang hda va dich vu tieu dung theo gia thpc te tang 24,5% so vdi cung ky nam trQdc (tang 14% neu loai trQ yeu td gia) Ty le tich luy tai san cd xu hudng tang dan, chiem khoing 29% GDP TQ nam 995 tdi nay, tieu dung tQ nhan va tich luy tai san la ddng Ipc chfnh cua tang trudng GDP Mac du la mdt nQdc tang trudng dpa vao xuat khau nhQng can can thQong mai cua Viet Nam lien tuc tham hut nen xua't khau rdng thudng cd ddng gdp am

- TSng trudng GDP tii phia cung: Khu vUc ndng nghiep tang 2,78%, ddng gdp 0,47 diem % vao tang trQdng GDP; cdng nghiep va xay dpng tang 7,7%, ddng gdp 3,2 diem %; va dich vu tang 7,52%, ddng gdp 3,11 diem %

VUNG BUtOfC TRONG THACH TII i t

Chenh lech ve tdc tang trudng gia tri san xuat vdi tdc dp tang trQdng GDP cua nhdm nganh ndng, lam, ngu nghiep nam 2010 la 1,91 diem % MQc chenh lech cd giam so vdi quy I va thang diu nam (tuong Qng la 2,35 diem % va 1,99 diem %) nhUng vin kha cao so vdi mpt sd nam trOdc dd (nam 2006 la 0,71 diem %; nam 2007 la 0,84 diem %; nam 2008 la 0,92 diem %; nam 2009 la 1,17 diem %) Dieu cho thay chi phi trung gian san xuat ndng, lam, ngp nghiep dang cd xu hodng tang

Chi so phat trien sin xui't cdng nghiep 11 thing diu nim 201 ting 71,8% so vdi nim gdc 2005, dd, nginh cdng nghiep che bien tang 89,5%; sin xui't dien, nQdc tang 21,4% Chi so niy tang cao hon so vdi nam 2009 vdi cic so tQdng Qng l i 51 %; 64,7% v i 85,1 %, cho thi'y xu hodng phuc hdi sin xui't cdng nghiep vQng chic

Nam 2010, mic du tdc dp tang trudng cao hdn ky vong nhung chit lupng v i hieu qui ting trUdng chua cd nhieu c i i thien m i cdn cd chieu hudng suy giim Ty le ting chi phi trung gian tdng gii tri sin xui't phin ldn ning Ipc quin ly sin xui't cdn nhieu han che, cham ddi mdi Ung dung khoa hpc v i cdng nghe quin ly cung nhu sin xua't Ngoai ra, nUdc ta dang qua trinh chuyen djch co ciu kinh te nen viec chuyen ddi sang phuong thQc sin xua't mdi cung lam chi phi trung gian ting len Hieu qui sd dung vd'n cing giim, di cung vdi xu hudng tang ty le vd'n dau tQ phit trien GDP Ning suit lao ddng tinh theo gii cd djnh 1994 ting vdi tdc cham, phin inh chit lupng, trinh dp lao ddng chua dupe cii thien nhieu

Bang 1: Hieu qua von va hieu qua lao dong Giai doan Vdn DTPT/GDP(%) ICOR Nang suat lao dong

(tri^u dong/ngudi)

Tang trurjfng NSLD (%)

1991 - 1995 28,18 3,44 5,25 5,70

1996 - 2000 33,29 4,79 6,92 4,72

2001 - 2005 39,06 5,20 8,36 4,27

2006 - 2010 42,70 6,09 10,65 5,37

Nguon: Tinh toan tCf so lieu cua Tong cue Thdng ke

b Von dau trf pha t trien van tri mdc cao, giai ngan cac nguon vdn ODA va FDI co nhieu ca i thien Td'ng vd'n diu tU toin x i hdi nam 201 Udc ting 2,9% so vdi nim 2009, bing 41 % GDP Bdi chi ngin sach Udc dat 5,8% GDP; no Chinh phu tang manh, bing khoing 44,5% GDP (nam 2009 l i 40% GDP; nam 2008 la 36,5% GDP); no nUdc ngoii Udc chiem 42,2% GDP; nd cdng vio khoing 56,7% GDP Tuy nhien, nhQng sd tren vin ngUdng an toan

Vdn diu tU trUc tiep nUdc ngoii (FDI) ding ky mdi v i ting them dat 8,6 ty USD, giim gin 20% so vdi nam 2009 Vd'n FDI giii ngan dat 11 ty USD, tang 10% so vdi cung ky va gin bing lupng vdn giii ngan cua nam 2008 Khoing cich giQa vdn dang ky va vd'n thQc hien d i dope thu hep

Vdn hd trp phit trie'n chinh thQc (ODA) ky ket nim 2010 Qdc dat 4,93 ty USD, vdn ODA giai ngin Qdc dat khoing 2,94 ty USD Tuy gii trj vd'n ky ket va giii ngin deu giim so vdi nam 2009 nhung ty le giii ngin dat gin 72%, cao nhi't tQ nim 2006 trd lai diy Ding chu y, cd ca'u ODA, ngudn vd'n vay ting vien trp khdng hoan lai giim qua cac nim; viec giai ngan vdn ODA gap nhieu kho khin, vQdng mic, die biet d linh vuc diu tu v i xay dung; ning lqc nhi thau, tQ van chua dip Qng dope yeu ciu cdng viec TQ thing 10/2010, vdn diu tQgiin tiep nQdc ngoii cd xu hudng tang trd lai Den thing 11/2010, ngudn vdn niy dat 712 trieu USD va du bao c i nam dat 1,5 ty USD, giup can ddi can can toin, dn djnh cung - ciu ngoai te v i ty gia

Kieu hdi nam 2010 dat ty USD, chiem hdn 7% CDP, tang khoang 7,6% so vdi sd 6,8 ty USD cua nam 2009, nhien lai tiem an nhieu rui ro td bat dn ty gia va gia ca hang hda Trong bdi canh lai suat USD tai Viet Nam cao hon nhieu so vdi My, khdng

loai trd mdt lupng ldn kieu hdi chuyen ve de hudng chenh lech lai suat chd khong di vao san xua't, kinh doanh

c Nhap sieu dat muc tieu ke hoach

Tren da hdi phuc kinh te nUdc va the gidi, kim ngach xua't khau nam 2010 tang trudng manh me, dat 71,6 ty USD, tang 25,5% so vdi nam 2009, vupt xa chi tieu 6% cua Qudc hpi Kim ngach nhap khau nam 2010 dat 84 ty USD, tang 20,1% so vdi nam 2009 Nhap sieu ca nUdc dat khoang 2,4 ty USD, bang 17,3% tdng kim ngach xuat khau, dat muc tieu tha'p hon 20% theo Nghj quyet cua Qudc hpi

N3m 201 0, kim ngach xua't nhap khi'u tang chu yeu gia the gidi tang Xua't khau v i n bi han che VND bj djnh gia cao hon so vdi cac ngoai te khac va anh hudng cua xu hudng bio hp thUdng mai tren the gidi Nhap khau d i cd thdi diem chUng lai (quy II, 111/2010) tic ddng cua cic chinh sich nham kiem soit chat hoat ddng nhip khi'u, khuyen khich xui't khau, dieu chinh ty g i i , dieu chinh thue de gdp phin han che nhip sieu Tuy nhien, nhUng giii phip han che nhip sieu hien cdn mang tinh ngin han v i chua ben vUng Them vio dd, cd ci'u v i ning canh tranh cua hing hda xui't khi'u cung ri't han che, giy sdc ep khdng nhd tdi hoat ddng thUdng mai cua nUdc ta

d Lam phat tang cao va kho kiem soat

Chi sdgii tieu dung (CPI) thing 12/2010 so vdi thing 12/2009 da ting tdi 11,75%, vUpt xa so ke hoach cua Qud'c hpi la 8% Nim 201 0, CPI cd nhUng bien ddng bit thudng so vdi cic nam trUdc (khdng ke nim 2008 chju inh hudng cua khung hoing tii chinh) CPI thing so vdi thing 11 tang tdi 1,98%, cao bit thudng n3m trd lai diy Nguyen nhin chu yeu la sU hdi phuc cua ciu nUdc va the gidi lim tang gii hing hda, he luy tU gdi kich thich kinh te nam 2009, "nhip khi'u" lam phit, ty gii hdi doii bit d'n djnh, yeu td tim ly Trong ty le lam phat 1,75%, yeu td tien te ddng gdp tdi 4,65 diem %, chu yeu i p Ipc cung tien nen kinh te nim 2010 Nhu viy, sau mpt nim hoi phuc kinh te, CPI da vUpt len mdc hai so, lim diy len nhUng lo ngai ve nguy co bit d'n kinh te vT md

e Chinh sach tai khoa - tien te

Chinh sich tien te nim 2010 dUdc dinh gii l i tUOng ddi linh hoat, phu hpp vdi dien bien kinh te vi md v i thj trudng tai chinh Ngin hing Nhi nUdc (.NHNN) d i ban hanh nhieu chinh sich nhim kiem soit mQc tang cua td'ng phUdng tien toin (vio khoing 23%) va mQc tang tin dung (vio khoing 25%), sQ dung mpt loat cic cdng cu dieu hinh nhQ: giQ dn djnh l i i suit cd ban 8%/n3m 12 thing (tQ 01/11/2009 den 31/10/2010) va ting len 9%/nim tQ 5/11/2010; trie'n khai cd che cho vay theo l i i sua't thda thuin dd'i vdi cic khoin vay trung, d i i han tQ thing 02/2010 v i cic khoin vay ngin han tQ thing 4/2010; bio dim chenh lech lii sui't VND v i ngoai te d mQc hpp ly de khong gay ap Ipc len ty g i i ; giam ty le dti trO

C H A O X U A N T A N M A O

bat budc tCr 7% xudng 4% ddi vdi ky han dudi 12 thang, td 3% xudng 2% dd'i vdi ky han tren 12 thing; bao dim nang toin, an toin he thdng, tri dn dinh thi trUdng tien te v i phit tin hieu giim lii sui't thj trudng d mUc hop ly; dieu chinh linh hoat ty gii hdi doii (dieu chinh tang ty gii binh quin VND/USD lien ngin hing 3,36% (thing 2) v i tang 2,1% (thing 8)) ket hpp vdi cic bien phip nhim khuyen khich xui't khi'u, kiem soit nhap sieu, gdp phin giii tda tim ly gam giU ngoai te v i tang cUdng cdng tic giim sit nham bio d i m d'n dinh v i an toin he thdng

Tuy nhien, chinh sich t i i khoa cdn thieu tinh phd'i hpp v i thd'ng nhit vdi chinh sich tien te Cic ddng thii dieu hinh chinh sich tien te cua NHNN nam 2010 ve co bin l i nhit quin vdi muc tieu chinh sich tien te thit chat nham d'n dinh kinh te vT md theo chi dao cua Chinh phu cic Nghj quyet sd 03/NQ-CP ngiy 5/1/201 v i Nghj quyet sd 18/NQ-CP ngiy 6/4/2010 Chinh sich tien te cua NHNN vin kien tri muc tieu d'n djnh vT md c i cd Nghj quyet sd 23/NQ-CP ngiy 7/5/2010 cua Chinh phu nhim l i i suit huy ddng xud'ng khoing 0% v i l i i suit cho vay xud'ng khoang 2% Tuy nhien, viec thit chat tin dung v i l i i suit tang cao d i l i m cic doanh nghiep gap khd khan ve vd'n cho sin xua't, kinh doanh Trong quy 1/2010, l i i sui't vay ngin hing d i len tdi 7-1 8%/nam (cd noi len tdi 19-20%/nam) v i vin cdn d mdc cao phd bien 13% thdi gian gin diy Trong dd, chinh sich t i i khoa lai khdng ngUng md rong Hai khoan chi ldn nhi't l i chi thudng xuyen v i chi diu tU phit trie'n di tang tuong Ung d mdc gin 7% v i 43% so vdi du toin nam 2010, mpt mUc tang kep ri't cao"1

Ngoii ra, nam 2010, viec Chinh phu tang cUdng bin trii phieu trj g i i tdi 68.000 ty ddng d i hut mat nhieu ngudn vdn cua x i hpi va doanh nghiep Them vio dd, mdc l i i suit 12% cua trii phieu chinh phu cung miu thuin vdi muc tieu mat bing l i i suit huy ddng xud'ng dudi 10% nhu Chinh phu mong mud'n

Nhu vay, luc chinh sich tien te duoc dieu hinh theo hudng co bin l i thit chat de giup tri dn djnh vT md, chinh sich t i i khoa lai duoc trien khai theo hudng md rdng, cho phep ngin sich chi tieu thoai mii nhim thuc day ting trUdng kinh te Diu tU tU ngin sich mpt tang vdi ty trpng ldn d i giy khd khan cho dieu hinh kinh te vi md SU thieu phd'i hpp va thd'ng nhi't giUa chinh sich tai khoa v i chinh sich tien te khien cho hieu qui thpc sU cua chinh sich tien te linh hoat trd nen rat han che

f Lao dong - viec lam, an sinh xa hoi

Nim 2010, cung vdi da phuc hoi cua nen kinh te, nhieu viec lim mdi cho ngUdi lao ddng d i duoc tao ra, gdp phin tha'p ty le thi't nghiep Udc tinh c i nam 2010, so lao dpng dupe giii quyet viec lim dat 1,605 trieu ngUdi, bing 100,31% ke hoach v i ting 6,64% so vdi

thUc hien nam 2009; tren 1,7 trieu ngUdi da dupe dio tao nghd Dp kien den cud'i nim 2010, ty le lao dpng qua dio tao dat khoing 40% Xui't khi'u lao ddng Udc dat 80 nghin ngUdi, dat 94,1 2% so vdi ke hoach Ty le lao ddng lim viec khu vpc ndng, lim, thuy sin giim tU 51,9% nam 2009 xudng 48,2% nam 2010; khu vUc cdng nghiep v i xiy dpng tang td 21,6% len 22,4%; khu vUc dich vu tang tU 26,5% len 29,47o Ty le thi't nghiep cua lao dpng dp tud'i l i 2,88%, dd khu vpc thinh thj l i 4,43%, khu vUc ndng thdn l i 2,27% (nim 2009, cic ty le tUOng Ung l i : 2,9%; 4,6%; 2,25%) Ty le thieu viec l i m nam 2010 cua lao ddng dp tud'i l i 4,50%, dd khu vpc thinh thj l i 2,04%, khu vUc ndng thdn l i 5,47% (nim 2009, cic ty le tuong Ung l i : 5,61%; 3,33%; 6,51%) Theo ket qui nghien cUu cua Trung tam Hpp tic phat trie'n ngudn nhin Ipc C&D cdng bd diu thing 02/2010, cd tdi 64% lao dpng nU thieu viec lim d'n djnh, dd cd tdi 25% sd lao ddng cd mdc lUdng khdng tUdng xUng vdi cdng sdc lao ddng bd Dieu niy cho thiy, xu hudng viec lim nam 2010 vin thieu tinh ben vUng

Cdng tic giim ngheo, nhi't l i d 63 huyen ngheo nhi't, dupe trien khai ddng bd vdi cic giai phap tro giup thiet thuc c i ve sin xua't va ddi sd'ng Theo sd lieu Udc tinh cua Td'ng cue Thdng ke, ty le hp ngheo d i giim tU 12,1 % nim "' Theo boo edo cua Chinh phu tai ky hop cudi ndm cua Qudc hdi

2009 xudng 10,6% nam 2010, tinh, cd ty le hd ngheo dudi 1% va khdng hd ngheo theo chuan qudc gia la Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh, Da Ning, Khanh Hda, Ba Rja - Vung Tau va Binh Duong; 62 huyen ngheo nhat nUdc da cd ban hoan cdng tac xda nha dot, nat cho hd ngheo Chinh sach trp giup ngudi cd cdng va bao trp xa hpi tiep tuc dupe hoan thien, da md rdng ddi tupng thu hudng va nang mUc trp cap Nha nUdc danh hdn 19.000 ty ddng (tang 17% so vdi nam 2009) de thuc hien chinh sach cho hon 1,4 trieu ngUdi cd cdng vdi each mang; danh 4.500 ty dong (gap hon lan so vdi n3m 2009) de thpc hien trp cap thudng xuyen cho hdn 1,6 trieu ngUdi va danh hang nghin ty dong, hang chuc nghin tan gao de trp cap dot xuat, chu yeu cho khac phuc thien tai va cdu ddi giap hat

g Mdc hoan cac chi tieu ke hoach 2010

Nam 2010, cd 16/21 chi tieu dat va vUpt ke hoach, dd an tupng nhat la tdc dp tang kim ngach xuat khi'u dat 25,5%, cao gap hon lan chi tieu ke hoach de ra, gdp phan quan trpng vao viec giam nhap sieu xudng 7,3% va giam bdt tham hut can can toan

Tdng thu ngan sach nha nUdc (NSNN) nam 2010 Udc dat 528,1 nghin ty ddng, vUpt 14,1% so vdi dU toan, bao dam dUdc cac nhiem vu chi va gdp phan giam bdi chi xudng cdn 5,8% GDP, tha'p hdn ke hoach de (6,2%) va giam 2,4% so vdi nam 2009

T3ng trudng GDP ca nam dat 6,78% Thu nhap binh quan dau ngUdi dat 1,365 trieu ddng/thing, tang 8,9% (da loai trd yeu to tang gia) GDP binh quan dau ngUdi tinh theo ty gia hien hanh n3m 201 da dat tren 1.1 60 USD, cao hon so vdi mUc muc tieu tU 1.050-1.100 USD, dua Viet Nam khdi nhdm nUdc cd thu nhap tha'p

Ty le hp ngheo dat 10,6% (mdc ke hoach la 10-11%), thap hon so vdi sd 2,3% cua nam 2009; ty le tha't nghiep d khu vpc thi la 4,43% (ke hoach la dudi 5%)

Mac du hoan va vUOt muc tieu nhieu chi tieu ke hoach, nen kinh te phuc hoi kha nhanh song kinh te vT md van thieu nen tang vUng chac, chat lupng tang trudng thap, tiem an nhieu nguy co Anh hudng cua suy thoai toan cau cung dUdc xem la nguyen nhan khien chuyen dich cd ca'u giUa cac nganh cdn cham, chua dap Ung yeu cau CNH, HDH da't nUdc Cd ca'u nganh GDP den nam 2010 la: cdng nghiep va xay dpng dat 41,09% (theo ke hoach la 43-44%), dich vu chi dat 38,33% (theo ke hoach la 40-41 %) Dang chu y, hau het cac chi tieu ve bao ve mdi trUdng, khac phuc d nhiem deu khdng dat ke hoach, day la mdt nhUng van de ldn, gay bUc xuc xa hpi

2 DU bao tinh hinh kinh te Viet Nam n3m 2011 a Boi canh kinh te the gidi

N3m 2011, kinh te the gidi dp bao tiep tuc tang trudng nhUng se cham lai tang trUdng nam 2010 v i n dUa nhieu vao cac gdi kich thich tai chinh khdng ben vUng Cac bat dn kinh te dang tang len va kinh te toan cau dang phai ddi mat vdi nhUng mau thuan va diem yeu cang Id ro Da so cac td chdc qud'c te deu mUc du bao tang trUdng kinh te the gidi va canh bao mpt so bat dn nhu lam phat, np cdng, that nghiep se anh hudng tdi kinh te n3m tdi Theo Quy Tien te Qudc te (IMF), tSng trUdng kinh te the gidi du bao dat 4,2% (giam 0,1% theo du bao trUdc dd) Kinh te toan ciu tiep tuc phuc hdi nhd sp c i i thien cic linh vUc diu tu, viec lam v i sUc mua cua hp gia dinh Ting trudng cua khu vpc cic nUdc phit trien dp bio d mdc 2,2% Cic nUdc mdi nd'i va dang phat trie'n se l i nhin td tich cUc cho ting trUdng kinh te the gidi, dp bao ting trudng d mUc 6,4%

DU bio trien vong ddng vd'n FDI the gidi trung han vin tich cUc sU hoi phuc kinh te the gidi d i thuc di'y long tin kinh doanh cua cic nhi dau tu Hdi nghi cua Lien Hiep Qudc ve Thuong mai va Phat trie'n (UNCTAD) du bio ludng vd'n FDI cd the dat 1,2 nghin ty USD nam 2010, t3ng len mdc 1,3-1,5 nghin ty USD nam 201 va hudng tdi mdc 1,6-2 nghin ty USD n3m 201 Tuy nhien, trien vong FDI cdn chiu inh hudng tU nhieu rui ro va thich thUc trudc sU hdi phuc mong manh cua kinh te toin ciu

Thupng mai toan ciu cd nhieu di'u hieu se ting trudng cham lai nim 2011 Theo IMF, du bio thUOng mai toan ciu nam 201 se tang 7% so vdi nam 201 (thi'p hdn so vdi mUc ting 11,4% nam 201 0)

YtOVGBVtOfC TRQJVG THACH T H l t r

SU sut giam tdc dp tang trudng thuong mai toan cau chu yeu la sU tang trudng cham lai cua cac nUdc phat trien Trong dd, cac nUdc dang phat trien va moi ndi cd mUc giam tdc dp tang trUdng thuong mai khdng dang ke

b Boi canh kinh te niidc

Nam 2011 la mdc quan trpng thpc hien Ke hoach nam 2011 -201 va Chien luoc phat trien kinh te - xa hpi 2011 -2020 Kinh te nam 2010 da dat dupe nhUng cdng nhat djnh viec hoi phuc sau suy thoai Nen kinh te dang cd xu hudng phuc hdi kha nhanh tren tat ca cac nganh, linh vpc; kinh te vT md tUOng ddi d'n djnh; mdi trUdng dau tU, kinh doanh dupe cai thien; thj trUdng nUdc cd dau hieu khdi sic; thj trudng hang hda da budc diu khdi phuc lai d i ting trudng; hoat ddng thuong mai, djch vu cd nhieu co hdi de phit trie'n thj trUdng mdi, ke c i thj trudng nUdc l i n thj trUdng ngoii nUdc Nam 2010 se tao nen tang thuin lpi cho tang trudng kinh te nim 2011 Tuy nhien, lam phit d mUc hai sd, np cdng cao, thim hut thuong mai ldn, ty gii hdi doii bit d'n dinh nam 2010 dang l i nhUng vin de giy nguy co tiem an cho nen kinh te Sp bit d'n niy cung chUng td nhUng yeu kem cd ciu ben dang ngiy cing nghiem trpng, ning Ipc dieu hinh vi md v i cich thUc phin Ung chfnh sich cdn han che

c Dii bao mot so chi tieu kinh te vi mo

- TSng triidng kinh le: Ddng lUc chu yeu cho ting trUdng kinh te cao cua Viet Nam giai doan trUdc cudc khung hoing t i i chfnh toin cau la diu tU, xui't khi'u v i tieu dung ndi dja Trong giai doan khung hoing 2008-2010, vai trd cua xui't khi'u ting trUdng GDP bj giim manh, mac du ty le xui't khi'u tren GDP vin cao nhung ty le nhip sieu cdn ldn Vai trd cua tieu dung ndi dja dang trd thinh yeu td ri't quan trang cua ting trudng kinh te Viet Nam

Tieu dung npi dja, chu yeu la tieu dung tU nhan va vdn diu tU vin la ddng lac chinh cho ting trudng kinh te Viet Nam nim 2011 Nhu ciu tieu dung nUdc vin ri't cao, niem tin tieu dung cua ngUdi dan it suy giim cudc khung hoing t i i chinh va suy thoii kinh te toin ciu, Viet Nam vin la diem den hip din dd'i vdi nguon vdn FDI l i nhUng cd sd de dp bio tdc dp tang trudng kinh te nam 2011 cd the dat cao hon nim 2010, d mUc khoang 7-7,5%

- Lam phat: Ngoii nhUng yeu td giy lam phit cd the khic phuc duoc bing co che dieu hinh, quin ly, tuyen truyen van ddng nhu chinh sich tien te, ty g i i , lai sui't, yeu to ky vong lam phit , cdn cd nhUng yeu to chu yeu thupc ve khich quan, ri't khd han che nhi/:

- Nhu ciu chi tieu cua Chinh phu (de xiy dung va phit trie'n co sd ting, thUc hien chuyen djch co ci'u kinh te, thpc hien cic chuong trinh xda ddi giam ngheo, thuc hien an sinh x i hdi ) v i nhu ciu tieu

dung ldn, niem tin cua ngUdi din ve tieu dung ludn d mdc cao duoc xem l i mdt nhUng yeu to quan tic ddng den lam phit cua nam 2011

- Viec gii the gidi cua nhieu nguyen, nhien lieu v i hing ndng sin tang cao vio nUa cud'i nam 2010 d i tic ddng lim tang gii nhieu hing hda nUdc, giy lam phit cao nhUng thing cud'i nam Xu the gii nguyen, nhien lieu cd tiep tuc tang cao nim 2011 hay khdng se phu thudc chu yeu vio nang hdi phuc v i tang trudng cua kinh te the gidi Do tang trudng kinh te the gidi n3m 2011 cdn nhieu khd khan, ty le thi't nghiep d cic nen kinh te ldn vin d mUc cao v i chua the giim nhanh nen ning tiep tuc tang gii cic mat hing nguyen, nhien lieu l i ft xiy Do dd, tic ddng cua gia the gidi ddi vdi kinh te Viet Nam n3m 2011 cung d mdc dp vUa phii

- Neu dpa vio l i i suit tien gdi cd ky han dd'i vdi cic to chdc cua Ngin hing Thuong mai Co phan Ngoai thuong Viet Nam de dU doin ky vong lam phit, cd the thi'y, ky han cing d i i thi lai sua't cing giim, gpi y ky vong lam phit hien l i khdng cao

NhUng nhin djnh tren cho phep dp bio lam phit CPI nim 2011 cd the khdng vUpt qui mUc lam phit cua nam 2010 Tuy nhien, lam phit vin cd the d mUc cao neu chung ta khdng quyet liet thUc hien cic chfnh sich binh d'n gii va kiem che lam phit,

do can dac biet chd chfnh sach tai khoa va tien te Neu thUc hien td't cac chinh sach neu tren va gia dau the gidi khdng vupt qua 90 USD/thung, cd the du bao lam phat CPI nam 2011 d mdc mot so

- Xuat nhap khau: Cac yeu to anh hudng de'n xuat nhap khau Viet Nam nam 2011 la: sU phuc hoi cua kinh te the gidi va diin bien gia ca the gidi cac mat hang xua't va nhap khau chinh cua Viet Nam; xu the phat trien cua xua't nhap khau Viet Nam; co ca'u san pham xua't khau va nhap khau cua Viet Nam

Kinh te the gidi nam 201 duoc du bao tang trudng cham hon nam 2010, gia ca the gidi cua nhieu mat hang xua't nhap khau chinh cua Viet Nam da tang va giU d mdc cao quy

IV/2010, khd cd the tang dot bien nam 2011; co ca'u cac mat hang xua't nhap khau cua Viet Nam chua the cd thay ddi ldn

ThUc tien hoat ddng xua't khau nhUng nam qua va nam 2010 cho thay tiem nang xuat khau cua Viet Nam cdn rat ldn Tuy nhien, cung vdi xu hudng tang xua't khau, nhap khau cua Viet Nam cung tang manh va cd the tang manh hon dan de'n nhap sieu cang ldn Nguyen nhan chu ye'u cua thpc trang la nhUng van de ndi tai cua nen kinh te ndi chung va khu vpc xua't khau ndi rieng

DUa tren nhUng can cU ke tren, du bao kim ngach xua't khau cua Viet Nam nam 2011 dat

78-79 ty USD, kim ngach nhap khau dat 91-92 ty USD, nhap sieu 13 ty USD, bang 6,6% kim ngach xua't khau Voi tdng kim ngach xua't nhap khau nam 2011 vao khoang 69-1 71 ty USD, cho thay dp md cua nen kinh te Viet Nam la rat ldn va sp phu thudc cua nen kinh te nUdc vao ben ngoai la rat ldn Van de cap bach hien khdng phai la kim ngach xua't, nhap khau tang dupe bao nhieu ma can quye't liet co ca'u lai cac mat hang xua't khau, Uu tien cac mat hang cd gia tri gia tang cao vdi nguyen lieu san xua't dupe cung Ung bdi cac doanh nghiep nUdc

- Tiet kiem, dau tu va tich luy tai san co dinh: Trong giai doan 2000-2010, trU nam 2008, ty le tiet kiem toan xa hpi theo gia hien hanh ludn dat mUc tren 30% CDP Nam 2011, dp bao ty le cd kha nang dat mUc cao hdn, nhien se khdng tang nhieu vi vdi viec hinh mat bang gia mdi cudc khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau vda qua va lam phat tang cao trd lai nhQng thang cud'i nam 2010, mUc sd'ng cua dai da sd nguoi dan bi sut giam nen tiet kiem cua khdi dan cU chua the tang nhanh Cdng ddng doanh nghiep, nha't la cac doanh nghiep vQa va nhd vQa trai qua "con bao" khung hoang tai chinh toan cau, dang qua trinh hoi phuc; mdt so tap doan kinh te ldn da dupe phat hien la hoat ddng rat thieu hieu qua va phai co ca'u lai n3m 2011 va nhQng nam tiep theo nen ty le tiet kiem tU khdi doanh nghiep nhieu han che; tiet kiem cua khdi nha nUdc thudng khiem ton Du bao tiet kiem toan xa hdi nam 2011 chie'm khoang tren dudi 31% CDP

Mpt so phan tich cho rang nam 2011, neu md rdng va trien khai mdt so dp an dau tu mdi thi ty le tich luy tai san tren CDP (theo gia hien hanh) cd nhieu kha nang quay trd lai thdi ky nhQng nam 2003, 2004, dat khoang 35-36 % GDP

- Tham hut tai khoan vang lai: Do ty le dau tU tren GDP cua Viet Nam vai nam gan day dang d mQc rat cao, chenh lech giQa tiet kiem va dau tU ldn, nhap sieu cao dan den tai khoan vang lai nhQng nam dd bi tham hut nang Phan tfch cho thay can can tai khoan vang lai nam 2011 chua the dupe cai thien nhieu Ve so tUdng dd'i, tham hut tai khoan vang lai nam 2011 dp bao la gan tPOng n3m 2010 nhung so tuyet dd'i tSng kha cao

Mac du cd mdc tham hut can can tai khoan vang lai d muc cao nhQng can can toan cua Viet Nam van d mQc an toan dupe tai trp chu yeu bdi cac nguon dau tu trung va dai han nhu FDI, ODA va cac nguon vd'n dau to gian tiep khac, dd ke ca kieu hdi va tien ngudi lao dpng dang lam viec d nUdc ngoai gdi ve

3 Djnh hUdng dieu hanh nam 2011

Trong viec thUc hien Ke hoach phat trien kinh te - xa hdi n3m 201 va nhQng nam tiep theo, can xem xet va cu the hda tdng bode nhQng kien nghi sau:

C H A C X U A N T A N M A C

- Ddng vdn nUdc ngoai can duoc quan ly chat che ca ve sd luang va lTnh vpc dau tif Can cd ca che thong thoang hon de thu hut nguon kieu hdi Trong nhUng nam qua, ngudn kieu hdi khong ngUng gia tang da lam giam dang ke tham hut giQa tiet kiem va dau tU d Viet Nam

- Chu nang cao hieu qui dau tU, dac biet la dau tUcua khu vUc kinh te nha nUdc, ddng thdi can cai thien hon nUa mdi trudng dau tU, dac biet la khuyen khich phat trien kinh te tu nhan Hien tai, dau tu cua khu vUc kinh te tu nhan van cdn han che so vdi khu vUc doanh nghiep nha nUdc va doanh nghiep cd vd'n dau tU nUdc ngoai

- Chinh phu cung can that chat chinh sach tai khoa bang each that chat va cat giam cac dp an cdng khdng hieu qua va chuyen manh tU dau tU nha nUdc sang dau tU tU nhan Viec chuyen tU dau tu nha nUdc sang diu tU tU nhan khdng chi lam gia tang hieu qua vd'n diu tu ma cdn lam giam np cua Chinh phu

- Chinh phu cin that chat hoat ddng vay vdn cua khu vUc cdng, dac biet la viec cho cac doanh nghiep nha nUdc vay va cac khoan vay thuc hien cac du an cdng khdng mang tinh cap thiet

- Khic phuc nhUng han che dieu hanh NSNN Khai thac tdi da cac ngudn thu va thay ddi cd ca'u thu NSNN theo hudng hpp ly Kiem soat va tiet kiem chi NSNN, phan bd chi hpp ly.D

• I T s f a h a S K I m cd TAC H M T * sin n b - r a i M M TRONG NAM 2011

Bdt dau to ngdy 1/1/2011, hdng loat chinh sdeh mdi se dupe ap dung, co tdc dpng ldn tdi hoat dpng sdn xudt, kinh doanh nhieu linh vyc ngdnh nghe quan trpng

Mien, gidm thu& sd dung ddt nong nghiep W nam Nghi quyet so' 55/2010/QH12 cua Qudc hpi ve mien, gidm thue sd dung ddt ndng nghiep CSDDNN), co hieu lyc td ngdy 1/1/2011 den het ngdy 31/12/2020 thUc sd co y nghTa ldn dd'i vdi 10 trieu hpi vien Hpi Nong ddn vd khodng 70% ddn sd Viet Nam d ndng thdn

Doi tupng dupe mien thue SDDNN gdm: ddt nong nghiep phuc vy nghien cdu, sdn xudt thd nghiem; ddt cdy hdng ndm cd it nhdt vy lua ndm; ddt Idm muoi; ddt ndng nghiep dupe Nhd nddc giao cho hp ngheo; ddt ndng nghiep ddpc Nhd nddc giao de sdn xudt ndng nghiep (SXNN); hp gia dinh, cd nhdn Id xd vien hpp tdc xd SXNN dd nhpn ddt giao khoan dn dinh; hp gia dinh, cd nhdn Id Idm trudng vien dd nhpn ddt giao khoan dn dinh de SXNN vd hp gia dinh cd nhdn SXNN gdp ddt cua minh de thdnh Ipp hpp tdc xd SXNN Gidm 50% thue dd'i vdi: dien tich vUpt han mdc giao nhdng khdng qud hpn mdc nhpn chuyen nhypng; ddt ndng nghiep Nhd nddc giao cho cdc td chdc kinh te, td chdc chinh tri - xd hpi td chdc nghe nghiep ddn vi sy nghiep vd cdc dan vi khdc dang tryc tiep SXNN; ddt ndng nghiep Nhd nude giao cho lyc lypng vu trang pudn ly, sd dyng

Tang lu'dng toi thieu vung doi vdi doanh nghiep Theo Nghi dinh so 107/2010/ND-CP vd Nghi dinh sd 108/2010/ND-107/2010/ND-CP cua Chinh phu, td ngdy 1/1/2011, lUdng tdi thieu vung ddi vdi lao dpng Idm viec tpi doanh nghiep nddc vd doanh nghiep cd vdn ddu tu nddc ngodi dypc dieu chtnh tdng them 100.000-370.000 ddng/thdng Cy the nhd sau: ddi vdi ngddi lao dpng Idm viec tpi khu vyc doanh nghiep nude, mdc Mong tdi thieu vung Id 1.350.000 dong/thdng vung Id 1.200.000 dong/thdng, vung Id 1.050.000 dong/thdng, vung Id 830.000 dong/thdng

Dd'i vdi ngddi lao dpng Idm vipc tai khu vyc doanh nghiep cd vdn ddu td nUdc ngodi mdc Iddng tdi thieu vung Id 1.550.000 dong/thdng, mdc vung Id 1,350,000 dong/thdng, mdc vung Id 1.170.000 dong/thdng vd mdc vung Id 1.100,000 dong/thdng

Doanh nghiep tif in hoa ddn Theo Nghi dinh sd 51/2010/ND-CP cua Chinh phu ban hdnh ngdy 14/5/2010 ve hda ddn bdn hdng hda cung dng dich vy, bdt ddu td ndm 2011, doanh nghiep se ty in hda ddn md khdng cdn mua hda ddn td cd quan thue nhd trddc ddy Sy kien ndy dypc ddnh gid Id se thay ddi todn bp nhpn thdc vd thyc hien ve hda ddn chdng td tren todn qudc trao quyen ty chu cho doanh nghipp viec sd dyng hda ddn, chiu trdch nhiem ve hda dan phdt hdnh, gidi quyet tinh trgng doanh nghiep phdi xep hdng chd mua hda dan tpi ca quan thue

Doanh nghiep cd the sd dung lai sd hda ddn cu dd in vdng - thdng ddu ndm 2011 nhdng phdi ddng ky vdi cd quan thue, neu doanh nghiep khdng mudn sd dung hda dan cu thi Idm thu tyc xin huy hda don

Nqp thue qua Internet, Mobile, ATM Theo Thdng ty sd 180/2010/TT-BTC cua Bp Tdi chinh hudng ddn giao dich dien td linh vyc thue, td ngdy 1/1/2011, ngydi npp thue cd the Ida chpn cdc hinh thdc npp thue dien td nhd: giao dich tryc tiep vdi ngdn hdng noi ngddi npp thue md tdi khoan thdng qua cdc kenh giao dich dien td (Internet Mobile, ATM) cua ngdn hdng de thdc hien thu tyc npp thue hope thdng qua cdng thdng tin dipn td cua cd quan thue

Thu tyc ddng ky thue dien td Id ngddi npp thue Ipp Td khai ddng ky thue dipn td tryc tuyen tren cdng thu thue dien td cua cd quan thue hope Ipp bdng cdc phdn mem cdng cy ddp dng chudn dinh dpng dd lieu cua cd quan thue Sau dd, ngddi npp thue gdi hd sd ddng ky thue dipn td den cd quan thue thdng qua cdng thu thue dien td cua cd quan thue Sau nhpn ddpc ho sd, cp quan thue gdi Thdng bdo xdc nhdn npp ho sa ddng ky thue dipn td cho ngddi npp thue

8 nhom hang chju thue moi trUdng Theo Lupt Thue bdo ve mdi trddng cd hieu lde td ngdy 1/1/2011, cd nhdm hdng hda se chiu thue bdo ve mdi trddng, dd cd nhdm hdng hda xdng ddu, dung dich HCFC, tui nilon, thudc bdo qudn Idm sdn, thudc khd trung cdc loai thudc trd md'i hgn che sd dung, Ddy Id nhdng mpt hdng sd dyng se cd tdc dpng xdu den mdi trydng sinh thdi

Doanh nghiep vien thong tu* chu ban hanh gia cudc co dinh nqi hat TC/1/1/2011 gid eddc dipn thoai cd djnh npi hat se ddpc thyc hi#n theo cd che thj trydng Quy

djnh ndy dp dung dd'i vdi tdt cd cdc doanh nghiep cung dng d|ch vy dien thogi cd dinh Ddi vdi VNPT - ddn vj dang chiem khodng 70% thj phdn dipn thoai cd djnh cd nude - se phdi bdo edo phyong dn gid trddc moi ldn dieu chinh gid bdn cd hi#u lyc td ngdy /2/2011, phi xdy dpng ddpc mien nhdm gdp phdn gidm chi phi, gidm thu tuc hdnh chinh cho ngddi ddn vd khuyen khich cdc nhd ddu td ddy manh ddu tu vdo linh vyc xdy dyng cdng trinh •Mien phi xdy duhg Theo Quyet djnh sd 80/2010/QB-TTg cua Thu tudng Chinh phu p v