Mac du cd sir chenh lech nhat dinh giira eac danh gia eua eac td chiic kinh te qudc te va cae chinh phu, song diing nhu bao cao mua Thu nam 2010 ve ''Trien vong kinh te the gidf cua [r]
(1),HD U03 mVriD'^, KINH TE THE GIOI NAM 2010:
PHUC HOI KHONG D€U, KHO KHRN VR NO NflN CHONG CHnT • ' •
PGS TS Liru Ngoc Trjnh •.iijUi T l
Dii giai doan tdi te nhat eua cugc khung hoang kinh te tai chinh toan cau da trdi qua
" Vien Kinh te va Chinh tri The gi&i n
theo IMF, miie tang trudng kinh te the gidi nam 2010 va 2011 se dat lan lugt la nhung anh hudng cua nd van kha nghiem 4,8%) va 4,2%o Td ehire Hgp tac va Phat trien trgng, va kinh te the gidi nam 2010, theo kinh te (OECD) ciing du bao kinh te the gidi nhan dinh cua nhieu chuyen gia, la mgt bire nam 2011 se tang tnrdng 4,2%) thay eho eon tranh day gam mau sang tdi dan xen Khae sd 4,5% dugc dua vao thang 5/2010, va hy vdi nam 2009, nam ma hau bet cae nen kinh vgng tang trudng kinh te nam 2012 se dat te Idn tren the gidi gap khung hoang, nam 4,6%) Dang tile la dir bao cua Bd phan 2010 danh dau budc phuc hdi dau tien d Thdng tin Kinh tl (EIU) eua tap chi The nhieu nen kinh te, du van rat mong manh Economist edn bi quan ban, hg cho rang tiem an nhieu nguy eo mgt cugc dd vd hoac tdc tang trudng kinh te toan eiu se giam khung hoang khae,
1 Kinh te the gioi tang truo'ng eham dan lai
Mac du cd sir chenh lech nhat dinh giira eac danh gia eua eac td chiic kinh te qudc te va cae chinh phu, song diing nhu bao cao mua Thu nam 2010 ve ''Trien vong kinh te the gidf cua Quy Tien te Qudc te (IMF), cdng bd 06/10/2010 tai Washington (Hoa Ky), da nhan dinh: "Ve tdng the sir hdi phuc cua kinh te the gidi da tien trien nhu mong mudn, the nhung rui ro thdi gian tdi van tang manh, khien cho nen kinh te the gidi ndi chung va tirng nudc va khu vuc ndi rieng ed xu hudng chiing dan lai"', Cu the
' IMF, World Economic Outlook, Autum, October, 2010,
tu 4,4%o eua nam 2010 xudng 3,6%) nam 2011 Theo danh gia cua eac chuyen gia, da phuc hdi toan eau nam 2010 ed dugc la nhd eac gdi kich thich tai ehinh duge tri tir eac nam trudc nbam thoat khdi khung hoang, vay cae gdi kich tbich vdn khdng ben vung va hieu qua cua chung eiing bat dau giam dan Do dd, tren eo sd nay, EIU du bao tat ca cae nen kinh t l ehu ehdt nhu My, Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban va Khu vuc su dung ddng Euro (Eurozone) diu •;d muc tang trudng yeu hon nam , chinh phu eac nudc rut di kl hoach kich thich kinh te va qua trinh phuc hdi dau tu dien eham
(2)22 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 n24).2011
khdng gidng va dd, hg cd nhiing ddng gdp khae vao bire tranh chung eua nen kinh te the gidi „ Theo du bao cua IMF, mue tang trudng cua cae nen kinh te cdng nghiep phat trien nam la 2,7%o va nam 2011 giam 0,5 diem phan tram, xudng cdn 2,2% Theo EIU, khu vuc Ddng va Ddng Nam A nhat la cae nen kinh te dang phat trien va mdi ndi, dae biet la cae nen kinh te Trung Qudc, An Do, Inddnexia, van dang dan dau da phuc hdi kinh te the gidi nhd thuang mai toan cau hdi phuc va cae gdi kich cau ngi dia manh me Tuy nhien, tang trudng cua khu vuc cung se eham lai d mue 7,9%) nam 2010, rdi xudng cdn 6,6%) nam 2011, nhu cau tai eac nen kinh te phat trien suy giam
Trong dd, Ddng Au bi tac ddng kha nang bdi cugc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau va se phai mat nhieu thdi gian mdi ed the hdi phuc Tuy nhien, xuat khau va san lugng cdng nghiep eua khu vuc bat dau hdi phuc vao giiia nam 2010 Mac du tam ly kinh doanh va tam ly tieu dung van cdn mong manh va hien van tdn tai nhieu thach thirc tai kbda nhirng du bao, tdc tang trudng kinh te eua khu vuc se tang hai nam tdi
Nen kinh t l eac nudc My Latinh ciing gay nhilu ngae nhien nam 2010 nhd xuit khiu i ia tang, thi trudng viec lam hdi phuc nhanh va nhu ciu tai thi trudng My phuc hoi trd lai Cae nha xuat khau nhu
Argentina Peru Brazil da cd nhiing edng dae biet va du kiln se cd muc tang trudng GDP lin lugt 8,3%, 7,7%o va 7,5% nam 2010 Tuy nhien, trien vgng cua khu virc nam 2011 se khdng kha quan va nhieu kha nang tang trudng se eham lai Dir bao tang trudng eua khu vuc My Latinh se giam tir 5,2%) nam 2010 xudng cdn 3.6% nam 2011
Tang trudng kinh te tai khu vuc Trung Ddng va chau Phi nam 2010 da dugc thiie day nhd gia dau md leo cao va nhu eau nguyen lieu thd gia tang d Trung Qudc Trong nam 2011, tang trudng cua cae khu vuc se tiep tuc tri d muc khoang 4,5%o, nhd san lugng dau md cao ban, chi tieu eho co sd tang nhieu ban va gia ea hang hda cao hon
2 Nhom cae nen kinh te thi truong moi noi tiep tuc di len manh me
Nhu vay, nam kinh te toan cau da tang trd lai vdi tdc xap xi 4,5%), cao hon tdc tang trudng trung binh cua thi gidi thap nien vira quậ Nhung khae ban vdi giai doan tien khung hoang (trudc 2008), đng lire chinh thue day tau kinh tl thi gidi hien khdng cdn la My, chau Au hay Nhat Ban nira, ma la cae qudc gia dang troi day, eac nen kinh te thi trudng mdi ndi va eac nudc dang phat triln, dimg diu la Trung Qudc, An Do va Braxin
(3)JCinh te'the'tfjoi 2010 23
Qua thue nam 2010 va nam 2011, mac du cung xu hudng suy giam tdc tang trudng, song eac nen kinh te mdi ndi va cae nen kinh te dang phat trien se tiep tuc giir dugc nhip phat trien tuong ddi nhanh vdi tdc tang trudng lan lugt la 7,1%) nam 2010 va 6,4%o nam 2011, va duge coi la nhdm nudc cd ddng gdp tich cue nhat vao tdc tang trudng chung ciia nen kinh te the gidi ca hai nam 2010 va 2011 Trong do, tdc tang trudng kinh te cua Trung Quoe nam va nam sau se dat lan lugt la 10,5% va 9,6%; cua An Do la 9.7% va 8,4%; va ciia Braxin la 7,5% va 4.1%, cae nen kinh te nay, nang lue san xuat khdng nhung khdng cdn thua thai, ma bat cir nao cd the, ddng vdn ngoai lap tire vao khien cho cae nen kinh te cang trd nen ndng hon, Trudc tinh trang do, \'a de ngan gia hang hda tang ndng, chinh phu nhdm eac nen kinh te mdi noi chae chan se eham dirt cae gdi kich thich kinh te thirc hien tir eac nam khung hoang (2008-2009) va that chat chinh sach nham binh dn toe tang trudng vao nam sau, Hau qua la, tdc tang trudng eua nhdm cae nen kinh te cd the se giam xuong nam 2011
2.1 Theo nghien cuu cong bd 15/12 cua Vien Khoa hge Xa hdi Trung Qudc (ASS), tdc tang trudng kinh te cua Trung Qudc nam 2010 dugc du doan cd the dat mue tren 10%) va GDP cd the tang len tdi 37.000 ty NDT (khoang 5.560 ty USD), cao
(4)24 NGHIEN CCfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 (124).20n triln kinh te va ddi sdng cua ngudi dan
Theo dilu tra cua Vien KHXH Trung Qudc, hien nay, gia nha dat tai Trung Qudc da cao hon 60%o so vdi thdi ky hau khung hoang tai ehinh nam 2008 Tai 35 phd dugc dieu tra, gia bit ddng san deu cao hon gia tri thirc tir 30-70%o va tinh chung ca nudc Trung Qudc, hien cd tdi 64,5 trieu don vi nha d cae phd (tuc khoang VA sd nha d) hoan toan bi bd trdng, khdng cd ngudi d, cae ben dau co thdng tri thi trudng Theo Ong Jim Chanos, chuyen gia quan ly quy dau co, bong bdng bat ddng san tai Trung Qudc tdi te gap mgt nghin lan so vdi D u b a i '•''•' '"'' '''^i^ '^^""^ ••
Diing trudc tinh hinh dd, cae nha hoach dinh chinh sach lap tue phan ung, ngan chan sir phat trien qua ndng ve kinh te, va xi hoi qua bdng bat ddng san, bang each tang lai suat CO ban lan dau tien vdng ba nam, nang ti le dir trii' bat huge cua eac ngan hang, yeu cau eac ngan hang ban che cho vay ddi vdi nhiing tnrdng hgp mua ngdi nha thir hai hoac ddi vdi nhirng ngudi khdng the chimg minh dugc hg cd the tra tien neu gia nha d mue cao, ap dung cae loai thue danh vao bat ddng san de kiem soat dau co nha dat, nang cao ty le toan ban dau mua nha, ban ehe ca nhan va td chuc nudc ngoai mua nha d va thuang mai Ngoai ra, cae ehinh quyin dia p huong cung da tien hanh mgt loat han chi mi a nha d Dii vay, bong bdng gia bit ddng san van tiep tuc ngoai tam kiem
soat cua chinh phu Trung Qudc Dong thdi, Hdi nghi Trung uong kbda 17 Dang Cdng san Trung Qudc da de mue tieu tri tang trudng "dn dinh va nhanh vua phai" nam tdi, nhim dat dugc "budc dot pha qua trinh tai ca cau kinh te" theo hudng giam phu thuoc vao xuat khau va dau tu, va chuyen manh sang lay tieu dung nude lam ddng lire Idn ban cua sir tang trudng
(5)Ddnh te'the'fiitii 2010 25
cau hoac ft la giiia hai sieu cudng kinh te
2.2 Theo du bao mdi nhat ciia Quy Tien te Quoc te (IMF), tang trudng kinh te nam 2010 cua An Do, nude ddng dan thir hai the gidi, se dat 9,7%), cao ban miie 9,4%) du bao hdi thang Thanh edng tren cd dugc la nen kinh te nudc it pbu thuge vao xuat khiu, va nhirng chinh sach phu hgp va ludng vdn vao manh da hd trg eac hoat ddng nudc va hd trg tang trudng Tuy vay, tdc tang trudng cao cua nudc da khien cho gia ca tieu dung tang vgt, gay anh hudng xau den ddi sdng eua ngudi dan Mac dii Ngan hang Du trii An Do da tang ty le lai suat tham ehieu them 1,25 diem %> nam nay, tang nhieu nhat khu vuc chau A, nham lam giam tdc tang gia, song theo du bao ciia IMF, gia tieu dung d An Do van se tang tdi 13,2%) nam 2010, so vdi 10,9%) nam 2009 Ciing theo td chuc nay, tdc tang trudng nam 2011 cua An Do van duge giii' d muc cao, song se duge dieu chinh giam cdn 8,4%o, thdng qua viec loai dan eac chinh sach va bien phap kich thich kinh te va thay vao la cae chinh sach kiem soat tang trudng nham dn dinh kinh tl va xa hgi
2.3 Ve phan "ngudi khong Id ciia chau My Latinh" Braxin, nen kinh te dang vuon len da tao them 2,5 trieu viec lam 10 thang dau nam, mgt tieh dang ghen ti nhdm G20, nhd tdc tang trudng
GDP du bao cd the dat 7,5-8,0%) nam 2010 Theo eac ehuyen gia, cd the ndi day la nam tdt nhat hai nam cam quyen eua Tdng thdng Lula va la nam tang trudng cao nhat vdng 25 nam qua cua Braxin Song song vdi qua kinh te, Braxin edn la mgt nhiing qudc gia hiem cd tren the gidi ed the tu bao la da dua 20 trieu dan khdi eanh ban ciing vdn ven chua day mgt thap nien Thanh tim kinh te cua Braxin la ket qua cua viee tang tin dung va cat giam lai suat, nham kich thich tieu dung va tao viec lam
(6)26 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 (124).2011 nam 2011 se giam 0,3 diem phan tram,
xudng cdn 2.3%o Cdn theo OECD, nam 2010, kinh te My chi tang trudng 2,7%o chii khdng phai eon sd 3,2%) theo du bao trudc dd, va nam 2011 se di xudng sau hon, dat 2,2%) Bd phan thdng tin kinh te cua td The Economist (EIU) tham chi cdn bi quan ban vdi du doan tang trudng GDP cua My chi dat 2,3%) nam 2010, va se giam manh xuong tdi 0,8 diem phan tram cdn l,5%o nam 2011
Sir phuc hdi eua nen kinh te My nam 2010 ed dugc mgt phan la xuat khau trd nen manh ban so vdi eac nam trudc nhd tri ddng USD thap so vdi cae ddng tien khae song chu yeu van la dua vao nhu eau tieu dung ndi dia, nhat la tieu dung ea nhan, chiem tdi 70%o GDP Tuy vay, dang tiee la nam 2010 va cd the ea nam 2011, nhu eau lai khdng manh nhu mong mudn Bdi vi, thic nhdt, thi trudng nha dat van tinh trang tri tre va khdng thay cd dau hieu phuc hdi Chang ban, gia trj bat ddng san tai My da giam ky luc tdi 1,7 ngan ty USD ca nam 2010, nang tdng gia tri bi mat di tir thi trudng dat miic dinh len ngan ty USD Trong dd, phan Idn tdng gia tri bi mat di nam 2010 la d khoang thdi gian vao nua cudi nam So vdi dinh cao nam 2006, gia tri nha dit d My da mat 1/4 Da sd ngudi My diu cam thay ngheo ban Thic hai thi trudng lao ddng My vin tiep tue yeu suot ca nam vdi ty le that nghiep dao
ddng d miie 9,6%) va cd luc da vgt len tdi 9,8%) (thang 11)\ cao nhit vdng 26 nam qua, va cao hon muc du bao 9,3%o cua chinh quyen Tham ehi cdn ed du doan cho rang, ty le ngudi mit viee lam khdng nhiing khdng giam ma dang tang dan sat ngudng hai sd, bat chap viec Tdng thdng My B Obama da coi giam that nghiep, bao ve cdng an viec lam cho ngudi My, giam tham hut ngan sach la nhiing uu tien hang dau cua dng nam thii hai eua nhiem ky, cam ket se tao hai trieu viec lam mdi thdi gian nam nam tdi, va nam 2010, chinh quyen My da "rdt" hang tram ty USD de tao viee lam mdi va trg cap ngudi that nghiep"* Cu the, bien ed hon 15 trieu ngudi lao dong My dang khdng ed viec lam, dd 6,3 trieu ngudi da that nghiep tir sau thang trd len Dang chu y nhat, phan mat viec lai la ngudi cd chuyen mdn va lgi tire hang trung luu, loai nhan vien cd cdn ao trang chir khdng chi ed cdng nhan ao xanh nhu trudc day
(7)JOnh te'tlte'f^ifli 2010 27
Ty le that nghiep tang va noi lo ngay bj sa thai bit ky luc nao da anh hudng nghiem trgng tdi ldng tin ngudi tieu dung, khien hg phai tiet giam chi tieu, ban che tieu dung, vdn ddng gdp tdi 2/3 vao mire tang trudng cua nen kinh te My, va de danh tien cho nhirng luc rui ro Tuy nhien, Chu tich FED Ben Bonanki canh bao, tinh trang that nghiep cao hien ed the tdn tai dai dang va se ed tac ddng "rat lau dai" ddi vdi nen kinh te My Ong cho rang, day la dieu 'rat khae thudng va rat dang lo ngai' va phai mat tir den nam nira, ty le that nghiep tai My mdi cd the trd lai muc 'binh thudng', khoang tir den 6% Tinh trang chae chan se anh hudng tieu cue lam suy giam tdc tang trudng kinh te My nam 2011 u «uij
Thic ba, luc rat can vdn de thue day tang trudng, giai quyet viee lam, nen kinh te Idn nhat the gidi lai phai ddi phd vdi tinh trang tham hut ngan sach Lien bang len tdi 1,34 nghin ty USD tai kbda 2010 (ket thue 30-9), tuong duong 9,1%) GDP cua My va la mii'c tham hut Idn thii hai cua My vdng 65 nam qua Nhiing ket qua yeu kem ve kinh te My nam qua da gay nhirng hau qua chinh tri tai hai ddi vdi Nha Trang Tren trudng qudc te, Tdng thdng Obama eung td lep ve so vdi lanh dao Trung Qudc, va da phai dau diu cugc dg sue vdi Bac Kinh van de ty gia tien te d nudc, tin nhiem cua dang Dan Chu da giam rd ret, ma hau qua rd nhit la
dang cua Tdng thdng B Obama phai chia quyen vdi dang Cdng Hda ddi lap cugc bau cir Qudc hdi giiia nhiem ky va thdng dde cae tieu bang hdi thang 11 vira qua
Diing trudc nhiing khd khan chdng chat nhu vay, cae nha hoach dinh chinh sach eua My hien rat lo lang va Cue Du trir Lien bang (FED) da cd nhieu bien phap kien quyet nham vuc day nen kinh te va thu hut them lao ddng Ve tien te, Ngan hang Trung uong My eat lai suat tdi sd khdng va giir nguyen d dd sudt hai nam qua Day la chuyen cue ky bat thudng Bat thudng hon niia la Ngan hang Trung uong cdn in tien, bom bac vao kinh te hai lan lien: lan trudc la hon 2.000 ty USD va lin thu hai la them 600 ty (thang
10/2010) tam thang Ve ngan sach, chinh quyen My da hai lan bom tien kich tbich (185 ty USD thdi Tdng thdng Bush va hon 800 ty thdi Tdng thdng Obama), nhung chua cd ket qua Ngay 17/12, ehinh quyen Obama lai quyet dinh bam them 858 ty USD vdng hai nam tdi Ngan sach nam 2010 da bdi ehi 1.400 ty USD (gin 10% GDP) va se cdn bdi chi hon nua Chinh phu My phai di vay, mac du da ng tdi 87%) tdng san pham ndi dia
(8)28 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 (124).2011 My dang nam giir may nghin ty USD nhung
chua dam bung lam an va tuyen dung vi chua yen tam ve chinh sach cua Nha nudc De tang them ldng tin va kich tbich tinh than kinh doanh, chinh quyen cua Tdng thdng Obama cd the se phai tiep tuc tri chuong trinh ndi ldng nham thue day phuc hdi va tang trudng kinh te .| ,,^j(-,n ou Sb iC
;(\'M Kinh te EU van chim kho
Idian va nff nan chong chat ' 'J'ô' ' ã') f!
Trong nam 2010, kinh te EU, nhat la 16 nen kinh te thude khu vuc ddng Euro (Eurozone), mgt trung tam Idn ciia the gidi, phuc hdi bet siic eham chap, van ngap nui ng khdng Id, va phai vat Idn de tim viee lam cho sd that nghiep hien da len tdi miic ky luc la 8,3% Theo du bao eua OECD, kinh te eac nudc khu vuc ddng tien chung chau Au dugc du bao tang trudng d miic thap, ehi ed 1,7%) ca hai nam 2010 va 2011, va hy vgng cd the tang trudng kha ban vdi 2% vao nam 2012 Cdn theo danh gia cua EIU, tinh hinh khu vuc cd ve bi quan hon nhieu, vdi tdc tang trudng chung toan khu vuc ehi dat 1,4%) nam 2010, va se giam cdn 0,8%o vao nam 2011 Giira cae nudc khdi EU khdng phai cd tdc phuc hdi va tang trudng nhu Sau tugt dde khdng phanh vao nam 2009, de that thoat hon 5%o GDP, kinh t l Due - nin kinh te Idn nhat EU - nam da lay lai phong mgt each het siic ngoan muc Theo bao cao cua Hdi ddng Kinh te nha nudc, kinh te Dire
(9)JGnh te'the'(fioi 2010 29
cd tdc tang trudng kha quan ban ea, vdi tdc tang trudng ca nam dat 1,8%) va du bao nam 2011 se la 2,1%), cao hon so vdi miic trung binh toan EU Trong cae nen kinh te khae EU nhu Italia, Tay Ban Nha, Bd Dao Nha, Hy Lap, Ireland, Bi, van dang phai vat Ion de phuc hdi mgt each chat vat, thi nam 2010, nen kinh te Phap lai co diu hieu phuc hdi lien tuc, vdi GDP tang tir 1,5-1,6%, va du kien tdc tang trudng cua Phap se la 1,6%) va 2%o vao nam 2011 va 2012 Day la mire tang tnrdng trung binh khdi cae nudc sir dung ddng Euro Nhu vay, Phap da thoat khdi su tang trudng am thdi ky khung hoang (nam 2009 la -2,5%) nhd eac chinh sach kich thich nen kinh te va hd trg tieu dung van tri nam 2010, khien sire mua ciia eac gia dinh deu tang, chu yeu tap trung vao cae mat hang tieu diing va san pham cdng nghiep che bien nhu dtd (+1,3%)), hang may mac va dd da Tuy vay, van de dau dau nhat cua EU nam 2010 va cd le ea nhieu nam tiep theo nira khdng don thuan chi la lam nang cao dugc tdc tang trudng kinh te, ma phai lam giai quyet dugc cugc khung hoang ng cdng, xuat hien vao thdi diem cugc khung hoang tai chinh-kinh te toan cau da tam lang, dang trd nen cang nghiem trgng va lay lan nhanh chdng, de doa lam tan vd EU va can trd da phuc hdi vdn da mong manh cua nin kinh te the gidi Ngay tir dau nam 2010, Hy Lap la nude "nd phat sung" diu tien eham ngdi cho cugc khung hoang ng,
(10)30 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 (1241.2011
vdi Hy Lap va Ireland la can thiet, cap bach, va trudc mat tam dugc coi la lieu thude "at chii bai" eho can benh ng edng, song theo nhieu ehuyen gia, dd chua phai la nhiing giai phap can ban, dung eham den can nguyen gay cugc khung hoang Vi the, nd khdng the triet tieu dugc can benh nay, ma chi cd tac dung "bien can benh cap tinh can benh man tinh" Do do, thiet nghT, de cd the loai bd vTnh vien dugc can benh nay, ve lau dai, eac nudc EU, thic nhdt, can phai eai each triet de md hinh phat trien kinh te thj trudng xa hdi ddi tir nhiing nam
1950 vdi viee can thiep manh eua Nha nudc vao nen kinh te vdi viec ngudi lao ddng dugc Nha nudc bao hiem va bao cap gan nhu toan bg khien ngudi ta de y lai vao Nha nudc, ddng thdi chuyen sang md hinh kinh te thi trudng dieb thue dd cd su ket hgp chat che giiia sir tu dieu tiet cua thi trudng va sir dieu hanh linh boat va gian tiep cua Nha nudc ddi vdi nen kinh te, va dam bao nguyen tac mgi ngudi phai tu ganh lay cae chi phi cua minh Thic hai, ngoai mgt ddng tien ebung, eac nudc EU can phai cd mgt ehinh sach ngan sach, thue khoa va ngan hang chung va thdng nhat, tranh tinh chat "dng ching ba ehude" hien Tuy vay, cho den nay, chiing ta chua nhin thay dau hieu nao ciia sir ehuyin ddi Cho nen, vai nam tdi, mac dii cugc khung hoang chua thi dan din su dd vd cua ddng Euro va ca khdi EU, song nguy co va kha nang cugc khimg hoang ng cdng lay lan sang "nhiing
mat xich yim kem nhat Khdi" nhu Bd Dao Nha, Tay Ban Nha Bi va Italia, va tham chi ca ngoai EU nliu Nhat Ban, My va vai nudc khae \'an cdn la ndi lo thudng true va dai dang cua cae chinh phu va cae chinh dang thude EU^.i,.HJ:>^
Kinh tl Nhat Ban, mgt cae sieu cudng kinh te Idn eua the gidi, theo IMF, mac du da thoat khdi kliung hoang, song trong nam 2010 van keo le tinh trang tang truo'ng thap va giam phat, vdi toe tang trudng lan lugt la 2.8%) nam 2010 va 1,5% nam 2011 Mac du OECD cd dua nhiing danh gia kha ban ve kinh te Nhat Ban vdi cae eon sd tang trudng tuong ung la 3,7%); l,7%o va 1,3%) cae nam 2010, 2011 va 2012, song ve co ban van khdng phai la cao so vdi cae sd tuong ling eua Nhat Ban nhieu nam trudc day Ngoai tdc tang trudng thap, van de co ban thic nhdt cua kinh te Nhat hien la nhirng quan ngai ve ddng yen manh (hien van dang dao ddng khoang 80-85 Yen/USD) khien eho eac mat hang eua Nhat khd canh tranh dugc vdi hang boa ciia cae nude khae d ca lan ngoai thi trudng Nhat Ban
(11)JCinh te'the'ffioi 2010 31
Nhung van de thic hai rgng Idn ban la lam the nao de giup nhu cau ndi dia (ca san xuat lan tieu dung) tang trudng mgt each ben virng, nen kinh te van ket tinh trang giam phat keo dai^ va ng edng len tdi 200% GDP Do dd, cd thi ndi, diep khuc "ndi long tien te cd dinh lugng" dugc eac chinh phu Nhat Ban thi hanh tir nhieu nam nay, thdi gian tdi, cd the se khdng mang lai nhieu hieu qua kich cau vi qui md qua nhd Hau qua la, thdi gian tdi nen kinh te Nhat Ban van tinh trang tang trudng thap va giam phat, bat chap viec ehinh phu nude ed sir dung bao nhieu gdi kich cau di chang niia
Khdng chi phuc hdi eham, khd khan, va khdng deu, ng nan chdng chat, that nghiep va lam phat cao, nam 2010, nen kinh te the gidi cdn phai duong dau vdi khdng it khd khan, dang ke sd dd la nguy co xay chien tranh tien te va gia vang lien tuc tang tdi mue ky lue , ,>oo(-AI i •
5 Gia vang noi song ' -Sau nam di len lien tiep, nam 2010 tiep tuc chung kien thi trudng vang phi ma vdi hang loat lan lap va pha ky lue ke tir hdi thang Neu nhu nhung dau nam 2010, moi ounce chi tuong duong 1.096 USD thi den 6/12, ky luc mdi nhat nam da dua gia vang len dinh cao cua mgi thdi dai tai 1.427 USD/ounce, tuc cao
ban 1/3, va gap gan 5,5 lan so vdi each day 10 nam (270 USD/ounce) Khdng rd, gia vang se dimg lai d hay cdn di len, nliung mdi day, Goldman Sachs da dua du doan, hai nam sau thi trudng cd the dat dinh d
1.750 USD/ounce / i v : ijJ j ) n ! U i i , i i i ii.)i.' iiJA
'' Lai suat co ban ciia Nhat Ban irong nhieu nam luon dugc duv tri a mire 0-0,25%,
Trong sd nhirng nguyen nhan thdi bung gia vang len nam qua phai ke den viee My tri lai suat eo ban d miic thap ky luc de hd trg da phuc hdi kinh te sau khung hoang Do kinh te My chua cd dau hieu phuc hdi, hay phuc hdi chae chan, va ddng USD bi suy yeu dang ke, nen cae nha dau tu da tim den vang nhu mgt chdn tru an an toan de dam bao tai san Tuy nhien, sau kinh te My cd nhirng dau hieu kha quan ban, vang lai van leo thang cugc khung hoang ng chau Au lan tran va cd dau hieu nghiem trgng Trong nhiing thang cudi nam, vang tiep tuc chiu siic ep tir viee Trung Qudc siet chat chinh sach tien te va boat ddng ngan hang nham kiem che tang trudng qua ndng Viec gia vang phi ma nhu vay se anh hudng tieu cue den su phat trien cua cae nen kinh te qudc gia va qudc te, den giao dich thuong mai the gidi va den eac thi trudng tai ehinh khae tien cua bi gam vao vang chii khdng dugc giai phdng de phat trien san xuit
6 Nguy Cff chien tranh ti^n te rinh rap
(12)32 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 {124).2011 tien te d cap toan cau, eac nudc thi
nhau gia ddng tien de canh tranh khdng lanh manh Trong dd, cugc chien giira hai sieu cudng kinh te hang dau Trung Qudc va My la trung tam cua sir chu y Bat chap ldi keu ggi manh me tir My va cdng ddng qudc tl, Trung Qudc chi tang gia ddng NDT mgt each cam chimg va mang tinh hinh thiic Trong nam 2010, da cd it nhat lan (vao thang va thang 9), My de dga se triing phat Trung Qudc neu nudc khdng nang gia ddng ndi te
Mae du, chien tranh tien te chua xay nam 2010, song mgt sd nudc ciing da ddn ran de lan Chang ban, Trung Qudc kien quyet khdng pha gia ddng NDT va ngam se dung kho du trir ngoai te khdng Id 2,600 ti USD va lugng trai phieu kho bac My (chimg tren 800 ti USD) ma Trung Qudc dang nam tay de giang tra lai My neu hi tan edng, edn My thi lien tue phat hanh them ddng USD nham gia ddng tien qudc te de thue day xuat khau Trudc su gam ghe eua eac "dng Idn", cae nude nhd hoac nhiing nude ma ddng ban te cua hg khdng phai la ddng tien du trir qudc te se bi thua thiet nhieu nhat Mgt sd nudc danh phai hoac la pha gia tien te hoac la lai suat co ban de "vdt vat chut it" cho eac hang xuat khau kem siic canh tranh eua minli
qiyi
.; -^ Van de chien tranh tien te tiep tuc lam
OB/
ndng Hdi nghi Thugng dinh kinh te G20 nhdm hgp tai Han Qudc hdi thang 11 vira
rdi Ngay ca ngudi dung dau IMF ciing canh bao, neu eac nudc tiep tuc dung ty gia de giai quyet khd khan kinh te, the gidi se den luc ddi dien vdi mgt cugc chien tien te thue su
Tai lieu tham khao
1 IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, Jan, 2010
2 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010
3 IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July, 2010
4 IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct, 2010
5 IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, January, 2011
6 IMF, Regional Economic Outlook -Asia and Pacific, Oct, 2010
7 Recession Shoping: Ten Things to
Buy Right Now, on http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages
/article/0.28 804.1891519 1891520,00.html http://blog.euromonitor.eom/2010/l 1/ rebalaneing-the-world-economv.htm
9 http://'www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ weo/2010/02/weodata/index.aspx
10 http://-www.economist.eom 11
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages http://blog.euromonitor.eom/2010/l 1 http://'www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ http://-www.economist.eom http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010 http://www.vietnamplus.vn