Using multi criteria analysis as a tool to select the feasible measures íor sustainable development of brackish water shrimp culture in quang tri province

VNƯ Journal o f Science, E arth Scicnccs 24 (2008) 66-78 ưsing multi-criteria analysis as a tool to select the íeasible measures for sustainable development of brackish vvater shrimp culture in Quang Tri Province Nguyen Tien Giang1-*, Tran Anh Phuong1, Tran Ngoe Anh', Nguyen Thanh Son1, Nguyen Truong Khoa2 1College of Science, VNU Department o/N atural Resources and Enviroivncnt of Quang Tri Provincc R eceived July 2008; rcccivcd in rcviscd form 23 A u g u st 2008 A b stract In rcccnt yoars, b rackish vvator sh rim p c u ltu rc in Q u a n g Tri P ro v in ce h as dev eỉo p cd rap id ly T h a n k s to th is d ev o lo p m en t, lives of m an y local ía rm e rs h av e bccn im p ro v ed , co n trib u tin g co n sid erab ly to th c p o v c rty allcviation goal Iỉow ovor, to g cth cr w ith this p ositivo im pact, policym ak ers a n d sh rim p fa rm crs arc íacing several issucs such as sp rc ad of s h rim p 's discascs, w atcr po llution a n d salin ity in tru sio n Por thc p u rp o se of su stainablc d e v e lo p m c n t, it is ncccssnry to scarch for a n d im p le m e n t th o sc m e a su re s w hich can soỉvc cffcctivcly th csc c m c rg in g problem s T his p n p er pro scn ts th c rcsu lts on tho ap p lica tio n of a m u lti-critcria analysis m cth o d to sclccting thc m ost ícasib le m e a su re s to th csc problcm s 'Ih c M CA rcsults su g g est th c four m o st ícasiblc m casu rcs a n d p in p o in t th n t th e ccìm bincd o ption: sed in icn tatio n rc serv o ir & re serv o ir w ith cultu rc plus im p ro v c d íc c d in g a n d w a tc r m an ag o m cn t as thc "bcst" option Keỵivords: S h rim p cu ltu rc; M u lti-critcria analysis; I;casiblc m casu res; S ustainablc dcvclo p m cn t; Q u a n g Tri P rovincc As rogards topography, Q u an g Tri has all types of topography: m ountains, hills, plains an d Coastal s a n d d u n c vvith tvvo m ain riv cr systcm s: Thach H an and Ben Hai Lying in the tropical m onsoon region, the average tcm perature of Q u an g Tri is ranging from 20°c to 25° c, in vvhich th e highest and lovvest tem peraturc usually h ap p en s on July and January7 respcctively Q uang Tri has a total annual rainíall of about 2000-2700 m m , but the rainíall is rather unequally distributed over từ ne and spacc The rainy scason starts in Septem ber, cnds in In tro d u ctio n Q u an g Tri Provincc is located in the Central V ietnam The province is b o u n d ed on the north by Q u an g Binh Province, on the south by T hua Thien H uc Provincc, on the vvest by Laos R epublic an d on the east by thc sca (Fig.l) T he Province includcs 10 adm inistrative units: tvvo to w n s and districts, in vvhich D ong H a is the provincial Capital * Corresponding author Tcl.: 84-4-2173940 E-mail: giangntộ vnu.vn 66 N guyên Tieu Giang ct nì / VNU louniaỉ o f Science, Earth Sciences 24 (2008) 66-7H January and accounts íor 75% to 85% of the total yearly rainíall, vvhcrcas tho dry scason lasts up to m onths, from Fobruary to July and occupies only 15-25% of the total rainíall 67 This leads to tho dom and for seeking and nplcm onting m easuros to solve the conílicts betvveen econom ic goal and its negative im pacts, especially in tho íuture, vvhen the province has tho plan to develop the aquaculture to be th e key sector of local econom ics [6Ị 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 Y««r Fig The devclopmcnt of brackish pond area in Quang Tri Province In order to have íeasiblc scts of measuros F;ig Qunng '1'ri Provincc Q uang Tri h as 75 km of Coastal lino and two river m ouths, nam ely C ua T ung and Cua Viet In recent ycars, therc has bcen a rapid developm ent of brackish pond aroa in the provincc As shovvn in Fig 2, thc total area of brackish w ater sh rim p culturc has increased approxim ately tim es, from 251 in 2000 to 902.5 in 2007 A ccording to the provincial aquaculture d ev elo p m en t plan [6], the total arca in 2010 vvould bc 1,889 ha, vvhich doubles the present's- value Thank to this dcvelopm cnt, tho brackish pond culturc has im proved rem arkably thc quality of lifc for m any íarm crs in the province, contributing positivcly to the poverty alleviation Hovvever, during tho d ev elo p m en t process, the local íarmcrs and au thorities havo bcen íacing som e problcm s su ch as vvater pollution, saiinity intrusion and thc sp read of shrim p's diseases for thc above-statcd problem , a M ulti-Criteria A nalysis (MCA) m ethod w as uscd and its results aro prcsen ted in tho next scctions T his p ap er is d iv id ed into scctions Section is involvcd vvith the problem statcm ent Scction is d evoted to the overvievv of thc MCA m ethods Section describcs stcp by step tho application of the MCA m eth o d using pair-vvise com parison and its rcsults to tho problem of brackish w ater sh rừ n p culture in Q u an g Tri Provữice Subsequentỉy, scctions and present som e discussions, conclusions on the results and the rcscarch outlook M eth o d o lo g y 2.7 Fraincworkfor muỉti-critcria analysis A ny dccision problem can be structured into th ree m ajor phases: intoliigence w hich exarrdnes the existence of a problem or the o p p o rtu n ity for change; design vvhich Nguyeiĩ Tiett Giang ct nỉ / VNU Ịủuntal o f Sciaice, Earth Scicìĩccs 24 (2008) 66-78 68 determ ines the alternativos; and choice which decides the best alternative 110] MCA is an eííective tool u sed in a decision process The major elcm ents involved in decision m aking proccss using a MCA m ethod can bc viewed systcmatically in a ừamevvork (Fig 3) P roblcm D cíỉnition - Tho studicd problem s are usually complicate, they are rclating to m any aspects and scctors Thereíore, it is im possiblo to take into account all thcso effects in practice - O n the othcr h an d , for solving a problcm , m any m easurcs w ould bo suggestod The responsibility of the scientists is to screen am o n g these altcrn ativ es th e íeasiblc m c asu re s bascd on applicability and suitability for tho local conditions E valuation C ritcria Const raints 2.4 Evaluatioiì critcria D ecision M atrix < A ltcrnativcs I Pairvvise co m p ariso n m at rix Dccision M akci^s 1’rcícrcnccs _ * C ritcrion W cights ĩ Select íeasiblc Aítor tho problem and its constraints havc beon detorm ined, the set of evaluation critcria should be dcsignated Ị2Ị This stagc involves spcciíying a com prehensivc sct of obịectives that rcAects all concem s relevant to the decision problem an d m oasurcs for achieving íhosc objoctivcs m easu res 2.5 Critcrion wcights Fig F ram ew ork for m u lti-criteria analysis 2.2 Problem dcfinition A decision problem is the diííerence betvveen thc dosired and existing State of the rcal vvorld It is a gap rocogni/ed by the stakeholdcrs (dccision makors, sdontísts and/or íarmers) Any dccision m aking process begins w ith th e recognition and tho deíinition of the problcm This stagc is in thc intolligcncc phaso of docision m aking and it involves in scarching thc decision environm ent for conditions, obtaining, Processing and examining the raw data to identiíy the problem s 2.3 Constraints After the problem has been deíined, constraints (or b o undary conditions) of this problem have to bc dctcrm ined for the íollovving tvvo rcasons: Criteria vveighting is ono of the m ost im portant steps in the decision m aking process A woight can be doíined as a value assigned to an cvaluation critcrion vvhich indicates iís im portance rolative to othor criteria un d cr considcration Assigning w cights of im portanco to evalualion critcria accounts for: (i) tho changos in tho range of variation for each cvaluation critorion and (ii) the diííeront degrccs of im portanco bcing attachcd to those ranges of variation [3Ị Bascd on this general dircction, a num ber of m cthods have bocn developcd and applied Each of them has its ovvn advantagcs and disadvantages Tablc su m m a ri/e s som c thcse m cthods and thcir íoaturcs In com parison w ith thc ranking and tin g m c th o d s, pairvviso co m p ariso n and tradc-off analysis m eth o d s both havc m orc precise and objective u n d crly in g thcory N guyên T im Giang ct al / VNU ỉounml oỊScimce, Earth Sciences 24 (2008) 66-78 69 T able M eth o d s for determ in in g criterion vveights [8, 9] M cth o d s/H catu res R anking Rating P airw ise com parison T d e-o íí analysis N u m b cr o f ịu d g m c n ts R esponse scale n n Intcrval n (n -l)/2 4 m cd iu m m edium M an a g eab ility by ínrm crs m cd iu m m cdium m ed iu m Kconomic b en e íits high high high high m cd iu m F.ffect on p ro d u ctiơ n high high high high m cdium Rffcct on điseasos m c d iu m m cdiurn m ed iu m m cd iu m m edium [{nvironm cntal im pact m c d iu m m cdium n icd iu m m cd iu m N c cd cd poỉicics m cd iu m m cdium m ed iu m m ed iu m high low 1.argc scalc offcctivoness Ịow low low low high C om bination of M casures C ritcria A2.1+B1 A2.2+A2.3 A2.2+B1 A2.3+B1 A2.3+B1+EỈ2 C o sts o f im p lcm cn tatio n est: 622 cst: 8351 cst: 8236 cst: 155 est:175 T im e o f im p lem cn tatio n >4 >4 >4 1-2 1-2 M an ag cab ility by íarm crs m e d iu m m edium m e d iu m m cd iu m m cd iu m Fxonom ic b cn c íits m e d iu m m ed iu m m cd iu m m cd iu m high E ííect o n p ro d u ctio n m c d iu m high high m ed iu m high Effcct o n diseascs n ie d iu m high high m cd iu m m cd iu m E n v iro n m en tal im pact high high high low m cd iu m N c cd ed policies m e d iu m m cd iu m m c d iu m h igh m cdium n icd iu m high lovv low L arge scalc cffcctivcness lovv Next, thc stan d n rd i/e d score for tho cost of im plem cntation should bo estim ated so that the overall cvaluation can be done Fừst of all, tho cost of im plem entation an d applicd areas of som e projccts in other locations are regions Those values, then, arc dividcd by thc shrim p pond area to gct tho standardized cost (USD/ha) The results are presented in Table As a rule, the altcrnativo A2.3 + BI w ith low cst cost (155 USD) will be assigned a collocted [1, 11] Tho research assumcs that score of and the combination A2.2 + A2.3 the cost to establish thcse m oasurcs in Q uang Tri Provincc is cqual to tho cost in other vvith highest cost (8,351 USD) vvill be assigned a score of The others are Nguyên Tien Giang et nì / VNU Ịoumal o / Sciatcc, Lnrth Sciences 24 (2008) 66-78 76 T he final step in evaluating thc m easures is to determ ine tho w eights for tho alternativcs By reíerring to tho sta n d a rd b e d scores in Tablcs and 7, and scoring card of com bừiations in Tablc 6, the scores of alternativcs corresponding w ith diffcrcnt criteria are shcnvn in Tablo From these scorcs an d w cights of each of the criteria, tho evaluation score of the altcrnatives is cstim atcd as: n intcrpolated from tw o of these values based on their cost por hectare T he scores for the costs of im plom cntation corresponding to diffcrent m easures arc shovvn in Tablc Table S tan d ard i/.cd scoro for costs o f com binations M easurc S ta n d a rd iz c d cost S tandarcỉizcd score A1+A2.3 335 0.978 Al+Bl 220 0.992 A1+B2 220 992 A1+B1+B2 240 0.990 A2.1+A2.3 737 0.929 A2.1+B1 622 0.943 A2.2+A2.3 8351 0.000 A2.2+B1 8236 0.014 A2.3+B1 155 1.000 A2.3+B1+B2 175 0.998 A, = X V , ' >=1 in w hich, A, is the scorc of the /lh m easure; is th e w eight of tho / h criterion and S ,J is the scorc of the /th m easuro w ith rcspcct to t h c / h criterion Tablc Final rcsults o f M CA C riteria A1+A2.3 A l+B l A1+B2 A1+B1+B2 A2.1+A2.3 VVoight C o s ts o í im plcm ontation 0.978 0.992 0.992 0.990 0.929 0.17 Tim e of im p lcm cntation 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.11 M anagcability by íarm ers 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.05 Econom ic b cn cíits 1 1 0.5 0.25 Hffcct on p ro duction 1 1 0.5 0.03 0.5 0.5 0.08 Effect on d iscascs 0.5 0.5 0.5 E nvironm ental im pact 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 N ecdcd policics 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.02 Large scalc cíícctiv cn css 0 0 0.05 0.703 0.6S3 Totaỉ 0.701 0.704 0.704 C riteria A2.1+B1 A2.2+A2.3 A2.2+B1 A2.3+B1 A2.3+B1+B2 VVcight C osts of im p lem entation 0.943 0.000 0.014 1.000 0.998 0.17 Tim e of im p lem cn tatio n 0 1 0.11 M anageability by íarm ers 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.05 Economic bcncfits 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 Effect on p rad u ctio n 0.5 1 0.5 0.03 Effect o n diseascs 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.08 E nvironm entaỉ im pact 1 0.5 0.25 N eed ed policies 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.02 L arge scale cffcctivcncss 0.5 0.5 0 0.05 Total 0.675 0.545 0.547 0.485 0.770 Ngui/et! Ticiĩ Giang ct nl / VNU Ịouninl ọ f Sciei\ce, l.nrth Sàences 24 (2008) 66-78 Ít can bo sccn ÍTom Table that the m easure vvhich h as tho sm allest score is option A2.3 + Bl Basod on thc MCA result, tho best com binations are: (1) AI + A2.3; (2) A1 + Bl; (3) AI + B2; (4) A2.3 + BI + B2 The last com bination (Sedimcntation rescrvoir & rcscrvoir ĩoith culture + Iinprovcd /ccding inanagcment + Bcttcr ỉoatcr managcmcnl) is tho "best" alternativo vvith overall score of 0.770 77 Third, the present research omploys ừiíorm ation rcgarding to the m easurc im plem enting costs from literature vvhich stem m cd from other abroad projocts Thereíore, somo assessm cnts are rclatively coarso estim ation In the future, it is necessary to have m ore prccise data and a vvider range of stakeholders serving for thc assossm ent task Conclusions Discussions Tho application results of MCA m ethod to thc problcm of brackish sh rim p p o n d culture in Q uang Tri suggest several points vvorth discussing First, sustainahlc d evelopm ent is a relativcly ncw conccpt \vhich requires taking both short and long torm goals of m ultiple stakoholdors into considcration T he use of MCA as a tool in this problem holps decision m akers in Q uang Tri Province to select tho íeasiblo m easurc(s) and "bcst" option in a rational m annor Particularly, the option "Scđinicntation rcscrvoir & rcscrvoir ĩoith culturc + Improvcd /ccding managcincnt + Bcttcr ĩoatcr managcmcnt" is recom m ended d u e to its highost scorc w ith respect to n ine criteria (Table 8) Second, the tvvo effective m easures m angrovc and vvetland íilters h av c low scores (Tablc 8) becausc, at present, tho cost to im plcinent thcsc m easurcs is too high com parcd to other m easures H ow ever, in the íuturc, w hen the shrim p activity is investcd m orc by tho governm ent, thcy should bc considcred again because th eừ positivc im pacts on the shrim p p ond as vvcll as environm ent This is relatcd to thc problem of changing m anagom ont objectivo over tữne in a dccision m aking process This papcr aim s to prosont thc rosults of an application of MCA to find out thc most ícasiblc m casurcs for sustainablo developm ent of the brackish w atcr shrim p culture in Q uang Tri Provinco The application of MCA includcs determ ining the em erging problems, objectivcs and requirem ents of related íactors, as vvell as tho alternatives that have been used ừi tho stu d y area From that it suggests the m casures to solve the problem s and apply the MCA approach for selccting the m ost suitable options Tho rcsearch detenninod that thc com bination of m easures Scdimcntation rescrvoir & rcscrvoir ĩoith cuỉture + Improvcd ỷeeding managemcnt + Bettcr ĩoatcr managcmcnt is tho m ost suitable for thc Q uang Tri's condition for the timo bcing From scientiíic poừit of view, the comploxity of Gnvironmcntal problem s m akcs necessary the developm ent and application of n e w tcxìls capablc of Processing not only tho num crical aspects, but also the expcrience of experts and vvide public participation, which arc all needed in the decision-m aking proccss [7] MCA is a qualitative analysis m ethod vvhich allows the usc of participatory approach in the docision m aking process In othcr vvords, w ith MCA, all relcvant Nguyưìĩ Tien Giang et / VNU Ịourìĩaỉ o f Science, Earth Sciences 24 (2008) 66-78 78 stakeholders (íarm ers, scientists, decision makers) can be involved in this process In doing so, tho conscnsus on the problem s and their solutions can be rcached Hovvever, it is noted that MCA is subjective in its nature In case the quantitative d ata are available, quantitative analysis (i.e num erical modelling) can be uscd in com bination w ith MCA to arrive at the "best" solution(s) in the dccision m akừig process This is anothor part of our research [3] C.YV Kirkwcx)d, Strategic deciaion making: M ultiobjective decỉsiởn nnaỉỵsis with sprcndshccts, D ux b u ry Press, Belm ont, C aliíornia, 1997 [4] M Krutvvagen, Impact o f shrimp pond Iưnatcivater ơn estuaries and the issue of saliĩĩity iĩĩtrusioỉỉ in Quang Tri Province, In tern sh ip rep o rt, Ilan o ị U n iv crsity of Science and T w en te U n iv ersity , H anoi, 2007 [5] P.5 Leung, L.T Tran, A w Fast, A logistic regression of risk íactors for disease o ccu rrcn cc on A sian sh rỉm p íarm s, Diseases o f Aquntic Organisms 41 (2000) 65 [6] N g u y cn Ticn G ian g e t aỉ., Impact assessment o f nquacuỉture Oìĩ ĩuntcr pollution, probìeiĩĩ ủ f saliììitỉ/ intrusioìĩ and proposcd altematives contributing to Acknowledgements the socio-econotrĩic devopmcnt and ciiviroỉíìuental prơtectìon fo r Quang Tri Proviiĩcc, Final projcct This p ap cr is resulted from a project íunded by th e Q uang Tri D epartm ent of Natural Resources and Envừonm ent The authors vvould like to thank all of the pcople w ho helpcd us to successíully accom plish that project Tho com m ents of the revievver have im proved the structure and content of the paper This revievver is grateíully acknow ledged re p o rt, H anoi U n iv ersity of Science, H anoi, 2007 (in V ictnam csc) [7] T.G N guycn, J.L De Kok, M T itus, A n cw a p p ro ach to tcsting an intograted vvater sy stem s m odcl using q u a lita tiv e sccnarios, r.ìĩviroìiĩỉicỉĩtnl Modcỉỉing Ẩc Softwarc 22, (2007) 1557 [8] G.F Pitz, J M cK illip, Décision anaíysis fo r programme evaỉuators, Sagc Publications, Beverly Mills, 1984 [9] F.J.H Schocm akor, c c VVaid, A p ro b abilistic m in an ce m easu re for b in ary choices: A nalytic asp ects of a m u lti-a ttrib u tc ran d o m \v cig h ts m odel, ỊournaỊ o f M nthom ticaí Psychologỵ 32 (2) Reíerences (1988) 169 [10] II.A Sim on, The lìcw Science o f m nm gem cỉit [1] D G autier, The integration oỊ Mangrove and Shrhnp Fanniĩig: A case study on the Caribbcaiĩ of dccision, H a rp e r an d Row, N ew York, 1960 [11] D.R Tillcy, H B adrinarayanan, R Rosati, an d Ị Colombia, YVorỉd Bank, N A C A , W W F and FAO Son, C o nsortium P ro g m on S h rim p F arm ing and íilters the E nvironm ent, 2002 C o n stru ctcd in w c tlan d s largo-scalc as recirculation sh rim p aq u acu ltu re, Aquncuỉturaỉ Enghĩccring 26 (2(X)2) 81 [2] R L K eeney, H Raiffa, Decisiơns ĩvith ìTĩuỉtiple [12] T L Saaty, Multicriteria deásioỉĩ making: thc objectivcs-preferenccỉ> and vaỉue tradeoffs C am bridge A nalytic Hierarchỵ Proccss, V olum c I, P ittsburgh, U niversity Press, C am bridge, 1993 PA, RWS P ublications, 1996  ... the problom Application o í MCA to sclecting ícasible measures for sustainable development of brackish water shrimp culture in Quang Tri Province 3.7 Currcnt and/iiturc problcm D uring the last... those m casurcs that are being uscd in tho targct areas as wcll as íorcign countries, such as Indonesia, China, Bangladesh, G erm any, Mexico, Colom bia, USA Somc of thcm arc introduccd as íollovvs... objectives arc cost and timo of im plcm ontation, effect on discases Pinaily, the iinpact and area of im pact arc im portant for the aquaculturc, agriculture, industries and other land uscrs Bascd on these