Vulnerability to saline intrusion and adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in the mekong delta of vietnam

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM NGUYEN HUU TRI A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCE STUDIES) FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY 2016 COPYRIGHT OF MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY Thesis entitled VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM ………………………………… Mr Nguyen Huu Tri Candidate ………………………………… Assoc Prof Sansanee Choowaew, Ph.D (Environmental Planning) Major advisor ………………………………… Lect Duong Van Ni, Ph.D (Wetland Ecology) Co-advisor ………………………………… Lect Kulvadee Kansuntisukmongkol, Ph.D (Ecology) Co-advisor …………………………………… Prof Patcharee Lertrit, M.D., Ph.D (Biochemistry) Dean Faculty of Graduate Studies Mahidol University ………………………………… Assoc Prof Nathsuda Pumijumnong, Ph.D (Natural Science) Program Director Doctor of Philosophy Program in Environment and Resource Studies Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies Mahidol University Thesis entitled VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM was submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies, Mahidol University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Environment and Resource Studies) on July 28, 2016 ………………………………………… Mr Nguyen Huu Tri Candidate ………………………………………… Assoc Prof Le Anh Tuan, Ph.D Applied Biological Sciences and Engineering Chair ………………………………………… Assoc Prof Sansanee Choowaew, Ph.D (Environmental Planning) Member …………………………………… Lect Duong Van Ni, Ph.D (Wetland Ecology) Member ………………………………………… Lect Kulvadee Kansuntisukmongkol, Ph.D (Ecology) Member …………………………………… Prof Patcharee Lertrit, M.D., Ph.D (Biochemistry) Dean Faculty of Graduate Studies Mahidol University ………………………………………… Assoc Prof Kampanad Bhaktikul, Ph.D (Civil and Environmental Engineering) Dean Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies Mahidol University iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I, myself, wish to express sincere appreciation to my major advisor, Assoc Prof Dr Sansanee Choowaew, who has taken care of me from the beginning to the end of my study program Without her help, the degree program and the dissertation could not have been completed I would like to thank my co-advisors, Dr Duong Van Ni and Dr Kulvadee Kansuntisukmongkol, and external chairman, Assoc Prof Dr Le Anh Tuan, who also gave much valuable advice and assistance toward the completion of my work Thanks to the 60th Year Supreme Reign of His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej scholarship of Mahidol University, the Faculty of Graduate Studies of Mahidol University for Research Assistantship, and the PhD International Programme of the Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies of Mahidol University, for financial support during my Ph.D program Also thanks to the staff members of An Giang University for their help during the fieldwork Additional gratitude and sincere appreciation must go to the authorities of the provinces, districts, and villages in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, whom I contacted for my data collection I particularly appreciate the households of the six study villages, who shared their time in supplying very useful information for the research Without their support, I could not have completed my study I am grateful to my family members for their support and encouragement throughout my study I specially thank my wife, Van Anh, my son, Minh Huy, and my daughter, Minh Khanh, for their love and encouragement of my efforts throughout the program and the preparation of this dissertation Finally, I expresses my appreciation to all of professors of the Ph.D Program in Environment and Resource Studies of Mahidol University, who shared much of their experience with me in both formal and informal ways Nguyen Huu Tri Fac of Grad Studies Mahidol Univ Thesis / iv VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM NGUYEN HUU TRI 5637242 ENER/D Ph.D (ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCE STUDIES) THESIS ADVISOR COMMITTEE: SANSANEE CHOOWAEW, Ph.D (ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING), DUONG VAN NI, Ph.D (WETLAND ECOLOGY), KULVADEE KANSUNTISUKMONGKOL, Ph.D (ECOLOGY) ABSTRACT This thesis aimed at the insight of the vulnerability to saline intrusion and the adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in different ecological zones of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam The specific objectives were to analyze the impact, adaptation and vulnerability to saline intrusion and evaluate adaptation options for rice and fish farming households Based on the interviews with 390 rice and fish farming households, in An Giang, Can Tho, and Soc Trang–upstream, midstream, and downstream provinces of the Mekong Delta, the study results revealed that the saltwater intensively intruded inland during the dry season and seriously affected rice and fish farming It is not only rice and fish productivity that was affected, but household income, the quality of natural resources and the environment as well Fish farming was faced with the most serious effects, the most vulnerable, and had the least adaptation options compared to rice and integrated rice and fish farming Households in all groups developed adaptation options following the increasing degree of salinity, including (1) changing the seasonal calendar, (2) using tolerant rice varieties and fish species, (3) changing cropping patterns and farming practices, (4) applying integrated production model, and (5) diversifying non-farm activities The research recommended that regional links and transfer of adaptation experience between downstream, midstream and upstream provinces should be put in place for better preparedness, prevention and mitigation in the context of future saline intrusion KEYWORDS: SALINE INTRUSION/ ADAPTATION OPTIONS/ IMPACTS/ RICE AND VULNERABILITY/ FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS/ MEKONG DELTA/ VIETNAM 186 pages v CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii ABSTRACT (ENGLISH) iv LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF FIGURES xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xiv CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background and Justification 1.2 Conceptual Research Framework 1.3 Research Objectives 1.4 Key Research Questions 1.5 Scope of Research 1.6 Research Originally and Expected Results CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEWS 10 2.1 Theories and Concepts 10 2.2 Climate Change in the World Context and Vietnam 18 2.3 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations 20 2.4 Vulnerability Assessment in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam 29 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 36 3.1 Research Process and Steps 36 3.2 Scoping Problems 37 3.3 Analysis of Occurrence and Degree of Saline Intrusion 38 3.4 Identifying Research Sites 39 3.5 Identifying Target Population 41 3.6 Data Collection 43 3.7 Data Analysis 46 3.8 Developing and Evaluating Household Adaption Options 48 CHAPTER III vi CONTENTS (cont.) 3.9 Analytical Process CHAPTER IV SALINE INTRUSION INTO THE MEKONG DELTA 49 51 OF VIETNAM: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE 4.1 Introduction 51 4.2 Situation of Saline Intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam 52 and at Research Sites in the Past 4.3 Situation of Saline Intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam 53 and at Research Sites in the Present 4.4 Factors Enhancing Saline Intrusion 56 4.5 Saline Intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam in the Future 62 4.6 Conclusion and Recommendation 66 IMPACT OF SALINE INTRUSION ON RICE AND FISH 67 CHAPTER V FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM 5.1 Introduction 67 5.2 Household Characteristics 68 5.3 Household Farming Activities and Economy 72 5.4 Impacts of Saline Intrusion on Rice and Fish Farming 77 Households 5.5 Determined Present and Future Impact Levels of 89 Saline Intrusion on Rice and Fish Farming Households 5.6 CHAPTER VI Conclusion and Recommendation 96 ADAPTATION OF RICE AND FISH FARMING 98 HOUSEHOLDS TO SALINE INTRUSION IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM 6.1 Introduction 98 6.2 Coping Capacity of Rice and Fish Farming Households 98 vii CONTENTS (cont.) 6.3 Present Adaptive Capacity of Rice and Fish Farming 100 Households 6.4 Future Adaptive Capacity of Rice and Fish Farming 103 Households 6.5 Adaptation Methods of Rice and Fish Farming Households 105 to Present Saline Intrusion 6.6 Adaptation Methods of Rice and Fish Farming Households 114 to Future Saline Intrusion 6.7 Conclusion and Recommendation CHAPTER VII VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND 115 117 ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS 7.1 Introduction 117 7.2 Vulnerability of Rice and Fish Farming Households to 118 Present Saline Intrusion 7.3 Vulnerability of Rice and Fish Farming Households to 119 Future Saline Intrusion 7.4 Adaptation Options for Rice and Fish Farming Households to 120 Present and Future Saline Intrusion 7.5 Conclusion and Recommendation CHAPTER VIII CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 132 133 8.1 Conclusion 133 8.2 Recommendations 134 REFERENCES 136 APPENDICES 149 BIOGRAPHY 186 viii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1.1 Vulnerability to climate change of difference regions of Vietnam 1.2 Estimation of sectorial annual investment and financial flow needed by 2030 to cover costs of adaptation to climate change (billion USD/year at present value of 2007) 2.1 Household and individual autonomous adaptation measures related 25 to climate stresses in Southeast Asia 2.2 Objectives and some selected targets of the Vietnam National Target 27 Program to respond to Climate Change between 2010 and 2015 2.3 Determining impact (Exposure x Sensitivity) 34 2.4 Determining vulnerability (Impact/Adaptive capacity) 35 3.1 Total number of households and sample size 43 4.1 The relationship between salinity and water level during dry season 52 in the Mekong Delta (1980-2013) 4.2 Tested 390 samples of soil and water salinity in research sites (2014) 55 4.3 Future projected climatic factors under different scenarios of climate 63 change for the Mekong Delta of Vietnam 4.4 Views of experts on factors enhancing saline intrusion in the 65 Mekong Delta of Vietnam 67 5.1 Age of household heads in three research sites 69 5.2 Education of household heads in three research sites 70 5.3 Key livelihood activities in three districts of An Giang, Can Tho, 72 and Soc Trang 72 5.4 Area and productivity of rice and fish farming in three research sites 74 5.5 Average household income from rice and fish farming in three 76 research sites in 2014 ix LIST OF TABLES (cont.) Table 5.6 Page Areas of rice and fish farming affected by saline intrusion in dry 79 season 2014 5.7 Percentage of households facing with saline intrusion impact 79 5.8 The correlation between the degree of saline intrusion and the yield 81 of rice and fish in Soc Trang 5.9 The correlation between the degree of saline intrusion and the yield 81 of rice and fish in Can Tho 5.10 Comparison of rice and fish yield changed in between 2008 and 82 2014 5.11 The correlation between rice or fish yield and salinity level 83 5.12 Comparison of household’s income in 2008 and 2014 and the 84 percentages of household income loss 5.13 Comparison of land area for rice and fish farming in 2008 and 2014 86 5.14 Percentage of households received saline intrusion information 87 5.15 Sources of saline intrusion information received by surveyed 87 households 5.16 Household perception on the degree of saline intrusion impacts 88 5.17 Levels of indicators of exposure to saline intrusion 89 5.18 Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of exposure indicators 90 5.19 Mean score of exposure indicators to saline intrusion in all three 90 research sites 5.20 Exposure level of rice and fish farming households to saline 91 intrusion 5.21 Levels of indicators of sensitivity to saline intrusion 92 5.22 Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of sensitivity indicators 92 5.23 Mean score of sensitivity indicators to saline intrusion in all three 93 research sites ... to saline intrusion of rice and fish farming households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam Analyse and determine adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. .. methods to saline intrusion of rice farming households 106 6.9 Adaptation methods to saline intrusion of fish farming households 109 6.10 Adaptation methods to saline intrusion of integrated rice and. .. and fish 112 farming households 7.1 Vulnerability of rice and fish farming households to present saline 118 intrusion 7.2 Vulnerability of rice and fish farming households to future saline 119 intrusion