Collective risk adaptation to saline intrusion a case in the vietnamese mekong delta

COLLECTIVE RISK ADAPTATION TO SALINE INTRUSION: A CASE IN THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG DELTA Dissertation VAN HUYNH THANH PHAM 1631621001 GRADUATE PROGRAM ANDALAS UNIVERSITY 2020 ii COLLECTIVE RISK ADAPTATION TO SALINE INTRUSION: A CASE IN THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG DELTA VAN HUYNH THANH PHAM 1631621001 Dissertation In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctoral degree in Development Studies at the Graduate Program Andalas University GRADUATE PROGRAM ANDALAS UNIVERSITY 2020 APPROVAL Title of Dissertation: Collective risk adaptation to saline intrusion: A case in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Name: Van Huynh Thanh Pham Student Number: 1631621001 Program Study: Development Studies This dissertation have been examined in form of oral defense in front of the doctoral examiner committee at the Graduate Program Andalas University, and declared PASSED at the date of 17th May, 2019 Approved by: Dissertation Committee Prof Dr Ir Rudi Febriamansyah, M.Sc Chairman Prof Dr Afrizal, M.A Committee Member Coordinator of Study Program, Dr Thong Anh Tran Committee Member Director of Graduate Program Andalas University Prof Dr Ir Helmi, M.Sc NIP:19590815198503 1004 Prof Dr.rer.soz Nursyirwan Effendi NIP 196406241990011002 For the PhD journey, It may not be what I have thought at the beginning, but I think I have arrived where I needed to be A good dissertation is the finished one (The 1st supervisor’s quotation) A BRIEF BIOGRAPHY Van Huynh Thanh Pham is currently a lecturer in Rural Development and Natural Resources Management Department, Agriculture and Natural Resources Faculty, An Giang University in Vietnam I am living in Long Xuyen city, An Giang province, locating on the southern west of Vietnam I was born in 4th October 1978 in Tra Vinh province locating on the southern east of Vietnam, bordering Pacific Ocean to the east My father name is Pham Van Yem and my mother name is Huynh Kim Thieu, both of them are teachers Growing up in this family, I had been given such emotions guiding me to be a lecturer after finishing university degree I got Bachelor degree in Crop Science at Can Tho University (Vietnam) in 2001 Since this time, I have been working in An Giang University (AGU), the second public university in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam In 2006 I obtained a Master’s degree in Sustainable Rural Development, awarded at the Royal Agriculture University, England, United Kingdom I started my PhD in Development Study at the Graduate School of Andalas University, West Sumatra, Indonesia in August, 2016 and the PhD degree was achieved in 2019 I enjoy teaching at the university I am also interested in doing research, to produce long – term agricultural products whilst protecting natural resources, especially in the case of climate change ORIGINALITY DECLARATION I, VAN HUYNH THANH PHAM, hereby declare that in this dissertation there were no works that had been submitted by other people to obtain an academic degree at any university, and as far as my knowledge was also not there were works or opinions that had been written or published by others, except those written in the text and mentioned in the references list Padang, 20 January 2020 Author Van Huynh Thanh Pham COLLECTIVE RISK ADAPTATION TO SALINE INTRUSION: A CASE IN THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG DELTA By: Van Huynh Thanh Pham (Supervised by: Prof Rudi Febriamansyah, Prof Afrizal and Dr Thong Anh Tran) Abstract Saline intrusion causes serious risks for agriculture and social life in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Maintaining and improving coastal livelihoods under the challenging condition of scarcity of fresh-water places greater pressures for rural societies This dissertation explores saline water intrusion status, its trend and its impact on the livelihoods of coastal farmers in order to address issues of forms and roles of collective risk adaptation for strengthening group adaptive capacity to sustain development Based on collective action theory and institutional analysis development framework, the model study of this study had been built to understand the collective adaptation, its forms, outcome, and factors related to both internal and external ones affecting this process By adapting the social-ecological approach, this research was conducted in Tra Vinh and Kien Giang provinces, the two main coastal areas adversely affected by the saline intrusion in recent years Stratified sampling and mixed methods using in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, case study and household surveys were used The results suggested persistent exposure to saline intrusion in the two coastal zones Farmers’ perceptions are different in the two areas, due to different scales of impacts, occurring more in the West than the East The trend is also estimated to continue its growth in future time In addition, increased impacts of salinity and high demands of shrimp in the market enabled farmers to shift from rice cultivation to shrimp cultivation in both sides of the Delta, extensive system in the West and intensive system in the East This adaptation brought better income for some but created social impacts on those having less adaptive capacity to meet this challenge Regarding social impacts, social change happens more in the West to solve difficulties of shifting process In terms of community adaptive capacities had been found to be different between the West and the East that structure various forms of collective adaptation named social groups and formal organizations It acts in different roles in the West and the East to reduce social impacts Both social and ecological factors contribute to form and maintain collective adaptation Physical conditions (water scarcity, the status of irrigation system), social and economic factors (economic status, group size, market demand) and institutional system (rules in use, head of the group) are those factors shaping collective adaptation in facing saline intrusion For the future, in view of rising sea levels brought about by global warming, dealing with the reality of saline intrusion will become more serious; collective adaptation should be kept and developed as so to enhance community adaptive capacities, and social entrepreneurship and partnership should be adopted into agricultural fields for coastal farmers to organize and optimize resources to create better living conditions The results of this research also contribute empirical knowledge of how the enhancement of farmers’ awareness of the effects of the impacts saline intrusion can contribute to collective risk adaptation Key words: Collective adaptation, Intensive shrimp system, Saline intrusion, Shrimp-rice system, Social and ecological approach, the Mekong Delta i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This dissertation addresses the issue of saline water intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, to understand the current situation, future trend and its impact on the livelihood of coastal farmers The research also explores forms and roles of collective risk adaptation in facing to saline intrusion and the potentials to strengthen group adaptive capacity to sustain development This research would not have been possible without the encouragement and significant support from various sources First and foremost, I would like to express my deep gratitude to my supervisory panel I am especially indebted to Prof Dr Rudi Febriamansyah, who has taken care of me from the beginning to the end of my study program Without his help, the degree program and the dissertation could not have been completed He gave me emotional support, good care, and confidence in dealing with difficulties I am deeply thankful for coadvisors, Prof Dr Afrizal and Dr Thong Anh Tran who also gave much valuable advice and assistance toward the completion of my work Thanks are due to Prof Helmi, Head of Study program in Development Study, Andalas University for good communication and advice Specially thank Prof Ardi (Agricultural Faculty, Andalas University) for his encouragement and help I met him in 2016 at An Giang University He informed me about this course and supported me to get in touch with the supervisors Without his support, my study wouldn’t have been finished My deepest appreciation to Dr Charles Howie (The Royal Agricultural University, England, UK) for his useful advice and communication, he gave me effective support on my study, thanks also for his English editing Thanks to staffs of An Giang University, staffs of Program Pascasarjana, staffs of International officers at Andalas University for their assistance, especially to Prof, Yonariza, Dr Yuerlita, Dr Mandi, Dr Richard Stanford, Dr Vonny and Mrs Bety for their good advice and support I particularly appreciate the agricultural officers in An Bien and Cau Ngang districts, Kien Giang and Tra Vinh provinces for useful conversation and assistance I wish to thank the farmers who shared their time for giving me very valuable information Without their support, I could not have completed my study My deepest thanks to Rural Development students in An Giang University, to Le Thi My Ly (DH4PN) Nguyen Thi Thoai Giang and Luong Thi Kim Anh (DH15PN); Ho Huu Phuoc, Le Truong Giang, Bui Lam Tuan, Hoa Thi Kim Ngoan, Nguyen Thi Hong Dao and Nguyen Thi Hong Cam (DH16PN) for their assistance during the fieldwork I would like to thank my parents, my sister, and brother for their love and support, to my parents in law who gave me encouragement I thank and love to my husband, Tran Ngoc Van, for his support during the time I was away from home He always trusted me and accompanied me over the course of my doctoral study Thanks also to my loving two sons, Tran Dinh Khoi and Tran Dinh Khang who had to be away from their mother to support my study Finally, I would like to thank Andalas University for financial support that made it possible for me to pursue this doctoral study Padang, January 2020 Pham Huynh Thanh Van TABLE OF CONTENT Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENT i TABLE OF CONTENT iii LIST OF FIGURES V LIST OF APPENDIXES XI CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION A Research background B Objectives of research C Significance of the research D Structure of dissertation CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW 11 A Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation 11 B Collective action in theories, forms and factors affected 32 C Institution and Institutional Analysis Development Framework 52 D Applying IADF into the Vietnamese situation 61 CHAPTER III RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 65 A Selection of research area 65 B Research methods 70 CHAPTER IV SALINE INTRUSION AND TRENDS 78 A Climate change and saline intrusion 78 B Farmers’ perception and the future trend of saline intrusion 90 CHAPTER V ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF SALINE INTRUSION ON COASTAL LIVELIHOODS 96 A Saline intrusion impacts and changes to the farming system 96 197 - (*): Changing of jobs due to saline intrusion - Relation: father, son, son in law, …; daughter, daughter in law, niece … - Education (1) primary; (2) secondary; (3) high school; (4) others (two/three years program; university…) - Current jobs: (1) farmer; (2) labour; (3) (seller); (5) stay at home – taking care of family; 6: (working for government); (6): others (……………) Where does the family’s land come from? (more than one options)  Inheriting  To be given by the Government  Exploring from wild land  Buying from other people  Others ………………………… What are current farming system? Numbers of Farming system Area (ha) animal/ poultry ………………………………… ………………………………… ………………………………… ………………………………… Total 10 Since 2000, are there any farming system have been changed? Please list the name and tell reasons (inlcuding those which have been stopped) Past farm systems ………………… ………………… …………………… Total Current systems Years for changing Reasons 198 II SALINE INTRUSION AND FARMERS ‘PERCEPTION 11 How is the situation of SI since 2000?  normal  unusual If it is unusual, please identify ……………………………………………… …………………………………….……………………………………… 12 Do you care about SI affecting to your production?  Yes  No 13 Where does the information of SI come from? (More options)  observing by themselves  Commune’ officers  Tivi- radio  meetings/ training courses  Commune’s loudspeaker  Others ………………………………  From neighbour 14 How will SI trend in the future increase?  Yes  No 15 Please tell the causes of SI? (more options)  Climate changing (more sunlight, drought, less rain, uncertain rain )  Sea level rise  Building dams in the Mekong Rivers  Not having/ completing of sluice/ gate to prevent salt-water  Local canals not meet demand of commune  Human activities (shrimp farmers pump more salt-water and given good condition for salt-water to intrude into inland)  Others …………………………….…………………………………… 16 Does SI affect to livelihoods of your family?  Yes  No If yes, please clarify the scale? (one option) (1)  Completely not affect (2)  Not affect (3)  Do not know - (do not know to decide either yes or no) (4)  Affect (5)  Completely affect 199 III IMPACTS OF SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION 17 How long your farm has been affected by SI? In…number of years ……… 18 How your livelihoods and social life have been affected? (More option)  Lack of fresh-water for plating crop (yield reduce;  Water quality is not suitable for shrimp (too salt or fresh)  Social conflict (Between rice and shrimp farmers)  Lack of fresh-water for daily activities  Lack of money for spending (reproduction, health care…)  Others …………………………………………………………………… 19 What did your family to adapt? (more options)  Changing farming system  Apply new salt tolerant varieties (name of variety………………………)  Changing of technique (Building dyke or adjust seasonal calendar,…)  To be uncultivated  Immigration  Others …………………………………………………………………… 20 Why does your family choose to this? (more options)  Suitable with natural conditions  Following local government’s plan  Adaptive farming system brings better economic effect  Do what the neighbor have done (Neighbor support to do,……… )  Others………………………………………………………………… 21 Could you please tell about the effect of adaptive farming system?  More income source and stable  Use family’s labour  Safe for the environment  Increase neighborhood  Others …………………………………………………………………… 22 Does your family satisfy about this (applying new farming system)? (One option) (1)  Completely not satisfy (2)  Not satisfy 200 (3)  Do not know - (do not know to decide either yes or no) (4)  Satisfy (5)  Completely satisfy (6) 23 Are there any difficulties while applying adaptive farming system? (More options)  Natural condition is suitable (land is small, no water to access….……)  Money to invest to adapt new system  Do not know new techniques (raising shrimp or crab, …………….)  Conflict with neighbor  Thieves  Others………………………………………………………………… 24 Do your family receive supports from the government/?  Yes  No 25 If yes, what have you been given?  Money/ to borrow money from the banks (please clarify …………  Information, technique (meetings, Training…………………………………………)  Others ………………………………………………………………… 26 How is it useful to your family? (One option) (1)  Complete not useful (2)  Not useful (3)  Do not know - (do not know to decide either yes or no) (4)  Useful (5)  Complete not useful IV ECONOMIC – SOCIAL - ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 27 Cost and income: (unit: VND: Vietnam Dong) 201 The rice crop: Kiên Giang Rice crop Total (1.000VND) unit: Land preparation (cày, bừa, trục ) Water Seed Fertilizer Pesticide/ herbicide Hiring labour Labour of family Cost (1000 VND) (with family labour ) Cost (1000 VND) (without family labour ) Yield (Ton/ha) Price (1.000VND/kg) Turnover (1.000VND) Profit (1.000VND) The shrimp crop Shrimp - crop Pond preparation Water (pump in) Water (pump out) Baby shrimp - post Food Medicine Hiring labour Labour of family Cost (1000 VND) (with family labour ) Cost (1000 VND) (without family labour ) Yield (Ton/ha) Price (1.000VND/kg) Total (1.000 VND) 202 Shrimp - crop Total (1.000 VND) Turnover (1.000VND) Profit (1.000VND) 28 Cost and income of intensive shrimp system in Tra Vinh The shrimp crop The shrimp crop Total (1.000 VND) Pond preparation Water (pump in) Water (pump out) Baby shrimp - post Food Medicine Hiring labour Labour of family Cost (1000 VND) (with family labour ) Cost (1000 VND) (without family labour ) Yield (Ton/ha) Price (1.000VND/kg) Turnover (1.000VND) Profit (1.000VND) The shrimp crop The shrimp crop Pond preparation Water (pump in) Water (pump out) Baby shrimp - post Food Medicine Hiring labour Total (1.000VND) 203 The shrimp crop Total (1.000VND) Labour of family Cost (1000 VND) (with family labour ) Cost (1000 VND) (without family labour ) Yield (Ton/ha) Price (1.000VND/kg) Turnover (1.000VND) Profit (1.000VND) 29 Is family labour is enough for current demand?  Yes  No 30 If not enough, what you do?  Hiring  Helping from neighbour  Exchange labour with neighbour  Others………………………………………………………………… 31 Quality of your family’s life is better?  Yes  No 32 How does the current farming system affect the environment? Reasons?  Bad  Good  not know Please give the reasons ………………………………………………………… V COLLECTIVE ADAPTATION AND FACTORS AFFECTING 33 Do family members’ take part into any institutions (formal and informal)?  Yes  No 34 If yes, please list the name (more options) Formal (more options)  Communist party  Agricultural extension group  Youth union  Shrimp groups  Farmers union  Community water management  Woman union  Others………………………… 204  Cooperation  Agricultural working group Informal (more options)  Water management (without government)  Hụi – (money saving group)  Labour exchanging group  Charity/ religious group  Others ……………………………………………………… 35 How those organization work to share information? (More options)  Regulated meetings  Sharing notes/ books …  Commune loudspeaker  Head of group come to talk with member  Sharing among members (at the party…)  Others…………………………………………………………… 36 Why you take part into those organizations?  Following government plan  Working in group is effective  Member of family asking to attend  Neighbor asking to attend  Getting more benefits (techniques, borrowing money…………)  Others………………………………………………………… 37 How necessary your family is to take part into those organizations? (1)  Completely not necessary (2)  Not necessary (3)  Do not know- (do not know to decide either yes or no) (4)  Necessary (5)  Completely necessary 38 Does group leader affect group’s member in terms of making decision of take parking and period of time to be in the group?  Yes  No 205 39 Does the ineffectiveness of cooperation in the past influence your family decision on taking part into the group at the current time?  Yes  No 40 Which factors affect adaptive adaptation? (More options)  Government plan  Intervention from the government  Good infrastructure  Suitable infrastructure  Caring about weather (at household level)  Time to live at the area  Education  of head of family Household’s assets (land)  Authority to  Economic effect of current farming system  Role  making decision of head of group Relationship with neighbour Others ………………………………………………………………… 41 What should be done for collective adaptation to be more effective? ……………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………… THANK YOU VERY MUCH! Name of interviewer:……………………Phone number …………………… 206 Appendix List of questions to interview the 1st and 2nd person made change INTERVIEW 1st/ or 2nd PERSON SHIFTING FARMING SYSTEM I am Pham Huynh Thanh Van, currently working in An Giang University and also a PhD student in the Andalas University, Padang, Indonesia The research Collective risk adaptation to saline intrusion: A case in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta is a need to fulfill my study You are the 1st/ 2nd person who has changed from … to… , Could you please report what you have done in order to cope with saline intrusion and why you have chosen that way, thanks a lot Name: ……………… Age: … ……….Phone number …………………………… Address: ………………………………………………………………………… Could you please tell about your current situation? Why you have changed into new farming system? (How can you recognize about saline intrusion, how long does it take for you to make decision? Have you shifted one time or step by step?) What have been brought from the new model? Do you satisfy? Can you tell about the progress of change? (Where the knowledge comes from? Where did you go to learn? How many places you have gone to and why you went there? How could you know about those places? Did you go by yourself or iin group? What did you learn to be able to apply new farming system?) When you started, did it affect other farmers living nearby? Did you share your knowledge to others who come to learn from you? (Who are they? Where they come from? What have been shared? Do they still contact you after going back?) The advantages and disadvantages of the beginner? What were difficulties at the beginning? THANK YOU VERY MUCH! 207 Appendix 10 Interview the group leader INTERVIEW GROUP LEADER I am Pham Huynh Thanh Van, currently working in An Giang University and also a PhD student in the Andalas University, Padang, Indonesia The research Collective risk adaptation to saline intrusion: A case in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta is a need to fulfill my study You are group leader, could you please report what you have done in order build and maintain the group, thanks a lot - Name: ………………….Phone number ………………………………… - Age………………………… Group/organization:…………………… … - Address: ……………………………………………………………………… When it is formed? And in which situation? (What are the reasons to it to be formed?) What are advantages and disadvantages at the beginning time? Could you report about how group are formed and its development process? What are conditions for being members of group/ organization? What are rules in use? How it has been updated? Where the rules come from? Who design it? What are benefits brought by being members? What are your roles? Are you happy to be group leader? What are connection among group and others? Please list? 10 Are you happy to keep the role? 11 Is there any suggestion for group/ organization to work more effectively THANK YOU VERY MUCH! 208 Appendix 11 Interview group members INTERVIEW GROUP MEMBER I am Pham Huynh Thanh Van, currently working in An Giang University and also a PhD student in the Andalas University, Padang, Indonesia The research Collective risk adaptation to saline intrusion: A case in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta is a need to fulfill my study You are group member, could you please report what you have done to be group member, thanks a lot Name: ………………….Phone number ………………………………… Age………………………… Group/organization:…………………… … Address: ……………………………………………………………………… Could you please tell about situation in which group/ organization has been formed (When, why and conditions to be member)? What are rules of the group/ organization? (Who design the rules? Are you happy to follow the rules? Have the rules been kept or they can be changed regularly?) Are the rules good enough? If they are not, can you contribute to the process of change? How is connection among members? What are the factors affecting you to join into group? How about the group leader? Is he/she needed for your group/ organization? How often you meet others and in this case what you do? Is there rich and poor gap affecting relation of the members? 10 What are important things for farmers to have closer relations? THANK YOU VERY MUCH! 209 Appendix 12 Topography of the Mekong Delta in Vietnam Altitude Areas Percentage (%) 2.0m 145.000 3,7 3.958.000 100,0 Source: (MARD, 2017) Appendix 13 Characteristics of climate change scenarios in Vietnam Characteristics Increase wet season flow Increase wet season rainfall Dry season flow Moderate scenarios 2050 2100 2050 2100 no change 10% – 10% 20 – 50% – 5% – 10% 10 – 20% 10 – 30% 5% higher or 10 – 30% 30 – 60% 15% lower lower lower +/– 5% (higher or lower) Decrease dry season rainfall Increase salinity intrusion Sea level rise* High scenarios 10 – 20% – 10% less – 15% less slight moderate moderate dramatic 20 – 30 cm 57 - 73 cm 40 – 60 cm 78 – 95 cm less 20 – 40% less (*): Relative sea level rise is the sum of land subsidence and sea level rise, which could be higher than figures stated here, little information is available on land subsidence Source: (MARD and MONRE, 2013) 210 Appendix 14 Scenarios for sea level rise in Vietnam (Version 2016) 2050 (cm) 2100 (cm) RCP2.6 (no equivalent) 21 (13 ÷ 32) 21 (17 ÷ 35) RCP4.5 (B1) – low emission 22 (14 ÷ 32) 53 (32 ÷ 76) RCP6.0 (B2) – medium emission 22 (14 ÷ 32) 56 (37 ÷ 81) RCP8.5 (A1F1) – high emission 21 (17 ÷ 35) 73 (49 ÷ 103) Source: (MONRE, 2016) Appendix 15 Saltwater-tolerant rice varieties of Cuu Long Delta Rice Research Institute Variety Duration stage Yield (ton/ha) Salt tolerant (g/L) OM 2517 90 - 95 5–8 3–4 OM 6976 95 - 100 6–9 3–4 OM 9921 100 – 110 7–8 OM 10252 90 – 95 7–9 OM 5451 93 – 102 6–8 OM 4900 100 - 105 7–8 2-3 Appendix 16 Reasons to change farming system (n=280) An Bien district Cau Ngang district The West side The East side Fre (%) Fre (%) Suitable with saline intrusion 89 28,8 115 40,6 Following Government plan 111 35,9 19 6,7 Better economic gain 81 26,2 94 33,3 Following what neighbour 27 8,7 53 18,7 0,4 0,7 Others 211 Appendix 17 Reason to join the group (n=146) An Bien district Cau Ngang district The West side The East side Fre (%) Fre (%) Following the Governmental policy 26 23,5 33 21,2 Making decision by themselves 47 42,3 59 38,1 Member of family asking to attend 0,9 1,3 Neighbor asking to attend 13 11,7 19 12,1 Getting more benefits 18 16,2 36 23,3 Others 5,4 3,9 111 100,0 155 100,0 Total ... Salinity and saline intrusion  Salinity In general, salinity is understood by both salt in water (water salinity) and salt in the soil Water salinity is the amount of salt contained in the water... of coastal farmers The research also explores forms and roles of collective risk adaptation in facing to saline intrusion and the potentials to strengthen group adaptive capacity to sustain development... January 2020 Author Van Huynh Thanh Pham COLLECTIVE RISK ADAPTATION TO SALINE INTRUSION: A CASE IN THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG DELTA By: Van Huynh Thanh Pham (Supervised by: Prof Rudi Febriamansyah,