An integrated approach to the assessment of post tsunami status of the fisheries with further reference to climate change

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY SINGHALAGE SHANIKA SHRIMANI WERALUGOLLA AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF POST TSUNAMI STATUS OF THE FISHERIES WITH FURTHER REFERENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF THE SMALL- SCALE FISHERIES SECTOR OF SOUTHERN SRI LANKA MASTER THESIS KHANH HOA - 2019 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY SINGHALAGE SHANIKA SHRIMANI WERALUGOLLA AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF POST TSUNAMI STATUS OF THE FISHERIES WITH FURTHER REFERENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF THE SMALL- SCALE FISHERIES SECTOR OF SOUTHERN SRI LANKA MASTER THESIS Masters Degree on Marine Ecosystem Management and Climate Change Major: Code: Topic allocation Decision: Decision on establishing the committee: Defense date: 03/08/2019 Supervisors: 1: PROF OSCAR AMARASINGHE 2: PROF CLAIR ARMSTRONG Chairman of the Committee: Assoc Prof Le Kim Long Faculty of Graduate Studies: Hoang Ha Giang KHANH HOA 2019 ii UNDERTAKING I undertake that the thesis entitled: “An integrated approach to the assessment of post tsunami status of the fisheries with further reference to climate change: the case of the small- scale fisheries sector of southern Sri Lanka” is my own work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted 01.01.2019 Singhalage Shanika Shrimani Weralugolla (Author) iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest appreciation to the faculty of Graduate Studies, Nha Trang University and NORHED Project for giving me the best conditions to carry out my master’s studies and to finish this master thesis My heartiest gratitude should go to both of my supervisors, Prof Oscar Amarasinghe and Prof Claire Armstrong for their continuous support and guidance given for my Master study and research, for their patience, motivation, enthusiasm and immense knowledge I always would be thankful to all the lecturers, coordinators and all other colleagues of the NORHED Master’s Programme for supporting me and being with me in all ups and downs throughout the entire period of time Further, I would like to extend my sincere thanks to all the fishers of Godawaya, staff of Neil Marines (Pvt) Ltd and New Nylon Nets and all the state officials for helping me with providing all the information I needed to make this study a success Special gratitude would be extended to Dr Nilantha De Silva and all my friends at University of Ruhuna for their heartiest contribution made for my study Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family: my father, mother and my brother for supporting me spiritually throughout writing this thesis Thank you! 30 05 2019 Singhalage Shanika Shrimani Weralugolla iv Table of Contents UNDERTAKING iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv Table of Contents v List of Tables viii Table of Figures xi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xiii ABSTRACT : Introduction 1.1 Problem Statement 1.2 Research questions 1.3 Objectives : LITERATURE REVIEW 10 2.1 Overview of Sri Lanka and Sri Lankan fisheries sector 10 2.2 Small-Scale Fisheries of Sri Lanka 11 2.3 Technical characteristics of Sri Lanka’s fisheries sector 12 2.4 The blue revolution - Technological change in fisheries sector 13 2.5 Assessment of marine fish resources (stock assessments) 14 2.6 Climate Change and associated impacts on fisheries 18 : METHODOLOGY 24 3.1 Study area 24 3.2 Data collection 26 3.2.1 Collection of Primary Data 26 3.2.1.1 Key Informant Discussions 26 3.2.2 Collection of Secondary Data 27 3.3 Data analysis 27 3.3.1 Gordon Schaefer bioeconomic model 28 3.3.1.1 Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) 30 3.3.1.2 Maximum Economic Yield (MEY) 30 3.3.1.3 Open Access (OA) equilibrium 31 3.3.1.4 Estimation of catchability coefficient- q 32 3.3.1.5 Estimation of carrying capacity- k 32 3.3.3 Calculation of cost of craft operation and unit costs 32 v 3.3.3.1 Fixed costs 33 3.3.3.2 Variable costs 33 3.3.4 Calculation of unit price 35 3.3.5 Calculation of SSF catch of Hambantota district 36 3.3.6 Calculation of unit effort 37 3.3.7 Gordon-Schaefer logistic growth model 38 3.3.7.1 Calculation of MSY, MEY and OAE 38 3.3.7.2 Incorporation of climate change into the Gordon-Schaefer model 38 : RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 39 Part I 39 An analysis of the process of evolution of the Small-Scale Fisheries sector 39 4.1.1 Technological change in fisheries of Sri Lanka 39 4.1.1.1 Technological development in fishing crafts 39 4.1.1.1.1 Development in type and number of crafts in Hambantota district 40 4.1.2 Changes in fish Catch and its composition 43 4.1.2.1 Change in annual total fish catch 43 4.1.2.1 Composition of fish catch 45 Part II 47 Changes in cost of craft operations 47 4.2.1 Changes in Annual Cost of craft operation by type of craft 47 4.2.1.1 Changes in TFC and TVC of craft operations-OFRP 48 4.2.1.2 Changes in TFC and TVC of craft operations- MTRB 49 4.2.1.3 Changes in TFC and TVC of craft operations- NTRB 50 4.2.1.4 Comparison of Total Costs of the three craft types; OFRP, MTRB and NTRB 51 Part III 52 Estimation of pre and post tsunami status of fisheries resources; application of the Gordon-Schafer model 52 4.3.1 Annual SSF catch, Unit price of fish and Unit cost of effort 52 4.3.2 Annual Effort 53 4.3.4 The status of coastal fisheries resources in Hambantota district 57 4.3.4.1 The Pre-tsunami status of fishery resources in Hambanthota 57 4.3.4.1.1 Maximum sustainable yield (MSY)- Pre tsunami 57 vi 4.3.4.1.2 Maximum Economic Yield (MEY)- Pre tsunami 58 4.3.4.1.3 Open Access Equilibrium (OAE) - Pre tsunami 58 4.3.4.1.4 Pre-tsunami states of fisheries resources 60 4.3.4.2 The Post-tsunami status of the fisheries resources in Hambanthota 60 4.3.4.2.1 Maximum Sustainable yield- Post tsunami 61 4.3.4.2.2 Maximum Economic Yield- Post tsunami 61 4.3.4.2.3 Open Access Equilibrium- Post tsunami 61 4.3.4.2.4 The present status of fisheries resources in the Hambanthota district 63 Part IV 65 Evaluation of the Impacts from climate change on fisheries resources 65 4.4.1 Pronounced changes in the climate, recorded in the Hambantota district 65 4.4.2 Occurrence of strong winds and storms 65 4.4.3 Effect of storms and strong winds on fisheries resources 66 4.4.3.1 Application of GS model for climate related analysis -Economic effect of storms 67 4.4.3.1.1 Economic effects under Scenario 68 4.4.3.1.2 Economic effects under Scenario 69 4.4.3.1.3 Economic effects under Scenario 70 4.4.3.1.4 Economic implications on resource status under different climate change scenarios 71 4.4.3.2 Application of GS model for climate related analysis: Biophysical effect of storms 72 4.4.3.2.1 Biophysical effects under Scenario 74 4.4.3.2.2 Biophysical effects under Scenario 75 4.4.3.2.3 Biophysical effect – Scenario 76 4.4.3.2.4 Biophysical implications on the resource status 77 4.4 Existing Level of resource management and implications of the results of the GS model 78 4.5 Limitation of the study and sensitivity of results 81 : CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 84 LIST OF REFERENCES 91 APPENDICES I vii List of Tables Table Technical characteristics of Sri Lankan Small-scale fishery 12 Table Formula used in the calculation of MSY, MEY and OAE 39 Table Methodology used in the Sensitivity Analysis 39 Table Standardized effort units 53 Table Estimation of standard effort- ‘number of standard vessels’ 55 Table Estimations of MSY, MEY and OAE - Pre tsunami 59 Table 4 Estimation of MSY, MEY and OAE- Post tsunami 62 Table Change in price and cost under each climate change scenario 67 Table Economic Impact under Scenario 1: Impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 68 Table Economic Impact under Scenario 1: Impact on Revenue, Cost and Profit 69 Table Economic Impact-Scenario 2: Impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 70 Table Economic Impact-Scenario 2: Impact on Revenue, Cost and Profit 70 Table 10 Economic Impact-Scenario 3: Impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 71 Table 11: Economic Impact-Scenario 3: Impact on Revenue, Cost and Profit 71 Table 12 Change in r and k of each scenario under biophysical impact 73 Table 13 Biophysical Impact under Scenario 1and the subsequent impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 75 Table 14 Biophysical Impact-Scenario 1and subsequent impact on revenue, cost and profit 75 Table 15 Biophysical Impact under Scenario and subsequent impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 76 Table 16 Biophysical Impact under Scenario and subsequent impact on revenue, cost and profit 76 Table 17 Biophysical Impact under Scenario and subsequent impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 77 Table 18 Biophysical Impact under Scenario and subsequent impact on revenue, cost and profit 77 viii Table of Figures Figure Different fishing techniques (craft-gear combinations) used in small-scale fisheries of Sri Lanka 13 Figure 2 A District Level vulnerability to climate change B Marine fisheries sector vulnerability to sea level rise C Inland and brackish water fishery vulnerability to sea level rise 19 Figure Storm surge hazards of Sri Lanka 23 Figure Tropical storms crossed Sri Lanka 23 Figure A Southern province (Galle, Matara and Hambanthota), Sri Lanka B Twelve Divisional Secretariat Divisions, Hambanthota District 25 Figure Change in annual total number of crafts in Hambanthota District 41 Figure Change in Annual Total fish catch and Annual total SSF catch in the Hambantota district 44 Figure Species composition of fish landings in the Hambantota district 47 Figure 4 Annual costs of craft operation- OFRP crafts 49 Figure Annual cost of craft operation- MTRB craft 50 Figure Annual costs of craft operation- NTRB craft 51 Figure Annual Total Costs of craft operation per each type of craft- OFRP, MTRB and NTRB 52 Figure Change in annual CPUE in Hambanthota District 57 Figure Equilibrium Harvest curve- Pre-tsunami 58 Figure 10 Total Revenue and Total Cost Curves- Pre tsunami 59 Figure 11 Growth curve (Growth-Stock Relationship)- Pre tsunami 59 Figure 12 Dissipation of resource rent from MEY to Actual condition (2004) 60 Figure 13 Equilibrium Harvest Curve- Post tsunami 61 Figure 14 Total Revenue and Total Cost curves- Post tsunami 62 Figure 15 Growth curve (Growth-Stock relationship)-post tsunami 62 Figure 16 Upward shift and expansion of post-tsunami Equilibrium Harvest curve 63 Figure 17 Annual occurrences of storms/ strong winds in Hambantota district 66 Figure 18 Impacts of storms/ strong winds on fisheries in the Hambantota district 66 Figure 19 Impact of 5% increase in unit price on TR and TC 68 xi Figure 20 Impact of 5% increase in unit cost on TR and TC 69 Figure 21 Impact of 5% increase in unit cost and unit price on TR and TC curve 70 Figure 22 Change in size and growth of stock with the 5% change in r and k 74 xii 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.14 0.19 0.18 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.15 0.63 0.57 0.54 0.50 0.49 0.70 0.65 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.00 302 326 402 415 431 489 547 317 373 375 366 361 471 581 144 160 190 172 192 229 265 667 697 668 778 722 785 848 21.1 16.7 26.3 13.9 10.3 24.9 58.3 XXIV 43.6 71.2 68.6 49.5 52.5 85.9 88.1 91.1 91.2 102.5 85.8 93.9 159.7 171.1 16.8 17.3 17.3 40.4 34.7 4.1 3.4 173 196 215 190 191 275 290 6.7 7.5 6.9 2.8 2.2 6.5 1.067 1.075 1.069 1.028 1.022 1.040 1.065 25 29 31 27 26 31 32 27 Appendix Regression Table 6.1 Regression output for each level of annual technological advancement-Pre tsunami Pre-tsunami SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.023742 R Square 0.000564 Adjusted R Square -0.07632 Standard Error 0.908958 Observations 15 4% TECH EFFICIEN ANOVA CY df Regression Residual Total SS MS F Significance F 0.006058 0.006058 0.007332 0.933067 13 10.74066 0.826204 14 10.74671 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 3.958572 0.935582 4.231133 0.000981 1.93737 5.979774 1.93737 5.979774 X Variable -1.4E-05 0.000162 -0.08563 0.933067 -0.00036 0.000337 -0.00036 0.000337 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.83794 R Square 0.702144 Adjusted R Square 0.679232 Standard Error 0.417744 Observations 15 10% TECH EFFICIEN ANOVA CY Regression Residual Total df SS MS F Significance F 5.347885 5.347885 30.64521 9.61E-05 13 2.268625 0.17451 14 7.61651 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 3.937204 0.250841 15.69602 7.88E-10 3.395295 4.479112 3.395295 4.479112 X Variable -0.00014 2.51E-05 -5.53581 9.61E-05 -0.00019 -8.5E-05 -0.00019 -8.5E-05 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.948735 R Square 0.900098 Adjusted R Square 0.892413 Standard Error 0.272406 Observations 15 15% TECH EFFICIEN ANOVA CY Regression Residual Total df SS MS F Significance F 8.691413 8.691413 117.1272 7.14E-08 13 0.964664 0.074205 14 9.656078 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 3.252321 0.129475 25.11925 2.11E-12 2.972607 3.532036 2.972607 3.532036 X Variable -8.6E-05 7.96E-06 -10.8225 7.14E-08 -0.0001 -6.9E-05 -0.0001 -6.9E-05 XXV Table 6.2 Regression output for each level of annual technological advancement-Post tsunami Post-tsunami SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.131922 R Square 0.017403 -0.07192 Adjusted R Square 0.048548 Standard Error 13 Observations 15% TECH EFFICIEN ANOVA CY Regression Residual Total df Significance F F MS SS 0.000459 0.000459 0.194827 0.66748 11 0.025926 0.002357 12 0.026386 Upper 95.0% P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Standard Error t Stat Coefficients Intercept 0.217824 0.028678 7.595619 1.07E-05 0.154705 0.280943 0.154705 0.280943 -5E-07 3.33E-07 -5E-07 3.33E-07 X Variable -8.4E-08 1.89E-07 -0.44139 0.66748 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.660025 R Square 0.435634 0.384328 Adjusted R Square 0.359206 Standard Error 13 Observations 22% TECH EFFICIEN ANOVA CY Regression Residual Total df Significance F F MS SS 1.095569 1.095569 8.490882 0.01409 11 1.419318 0.129029 12 2.514887 Upper 95.0% P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Standard Error t Stat Coefficients Intercept 1.634213 0.173675 9.409615 1.35E-06 1.251958 2.016469 1.251958 2.016469 X Variable -1.5E-05 5.31E-06 -2.91391 0.01409 -2.7E-05 -3.8E-06 -2.7E-05 -3.8E-06 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.745491 R Square 0.555757 0.515371 Adjusted R Square 0.369025 Standard Error 13 Observations 30% TECH EFFICIEN ANOVA CY Regression Residual Total df Significance F F MS SS 1.873993 1.873993 13.76123 0.003443 11 1.497971 0.136179 12 3.371965 Upper 95.0% P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Standard Error t Stat Coefficients Intercept 1.347308 0.156202 8.625421 3.17E-06 1.00351 1.691106 1.00351 1.691106 X Variable -9.3E-06 2.52E-06 -3.70961 0.003443 -1.5E-05 -3.8E-06 -1.5E-05 -3.8E-06 XXVI Appendix Occurrence of strong winds/ Storms in Hambanthota District Table 7.1 Number of incidences of Strong winds/ storms in Hambantota District and their impacts Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Number of strong winds occurred 0 0 0 0 0 3 33 Injured Houses Destroyed Houses Damaged Number of People affected Number of People evacuated 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 1 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 131 14 58 10 53 40 11 149 401 251 0 0 0 0 340 0 0 916 70 50 287 47 19 171 49 475 51 36 1879 829 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 XXVII Appendix Estimating q (catchability co-efficient) and k (carrying Capacity) (Formula 3.5) 𝐻(𝐸) (𝑞2𝑘) = 𝑞𝑘 + 𝐸 𝐸 𝑟 b1 b2 Further b2 can be solved into, 𝑏2 = 𝑏1 ∗ 𝑞 𝑟 Based on above equations q and k can be solved as below Table 8.1 Calculation of q and k b1 Before tsunami After tsunami b2 r q k =(b2*r)/b1 =b1/q 3.94 1.4E-04 0.36 1.3E-05 309624 1.63 1.5E-05 0.36 3.4E-06 479337 r=0.36 year-1 under multi-craft multi-gear fishery (Seijo., 2000) XXVIII Appendix Facts discussed in each Focus Group Discussions AN INTEGRATED APPRAOCH TO ANALYSIS OF POST TSUNAMI STATUS OF FISHERIS IN SRI LANKA: A CASE OF SMALL-SCALE FISHERIES IN SOUTHERN SRI LANKA Date Name of the participant Area Designation Address XXIX TEL Age How long have you been working in fisheries sector Key informant discussion-01 Main topics under discussion Topics Evolution of fishery in Godawaya and Hambanthota district - Historical background of the relationship between Godawaya fisheries village and fishery What are the main types of fishing crafts used - (traditional, mechanized, non-mechanized) and their characteristics What are the type of fishing gears and methods being used What are main fish species fishers fish for (seasonality, time of fishing, type of gears used to catch each species) Current status; economic and social, of the fishing community in the area - Living conditions, income, employment opportunities available and etc Memories of tsunami - How tsunami impact felt to the area How post tsunami build up effect on fishery, their lives and livelihoods What is the general climate in the area XXX Key informant discussion-02 Technical characteristics of coastal fishing crafts in Sri Lanka (Source: Wijayaratne, 2001) Key characteristics 3.5 ton boat (IDAY) Fibre reinforced boat (OFRP) Motorised Traditional Thappam Length (feet) Year of manufacture Hull materials Propulsion method Engine (hp) Trip duration (Hours) Number of trips per month Season (days/months) Off-season (days/months) Fishing months per year Crew size Ownership status of skipper Fishing gear used XXXI Non-motorised traditional boat Plan beach sein (Paru) Outrigger canoes (Oru) Vallam Average amount of Nets/gears per person Mostly used type of engine Mostly used type of crafts Distance travelled per trip (nm /km) XXXII Cost of craft operation Fiber reinforced boat (OFRP) Type of craft Motorised Non-motorised traditional boat Plan beach Traditional sein (Paru), Outrigger canoes (Oru) and (Theppam) Vallam Price of craft Price of engine 9.9hp 15hp 25hp 40hp Price of gears Shark/Skate nets Gill nets Trenched sardine nets Anchovy nets Other Costs for torch/lights Repairing costs Main other times cost times XXXIII cost Insurance cost Cost of license Fuel cost Litre/trip cost Other miscellanies costs (food/cigarette) Other costs (damage due to disasters) XXXIV Changes in General trends in Climatic parameters What are the most prevailing climate changes in your area (rank according to the importance for fishing operations)? Have you unidentified such Rank them according to their prominence Change in water currents Changes in rainfall intensity Changes in rainfall pattern Increasing storm intensity and frequency Sea level rise Other Other Topics under discussions Changing parameter Key points discussed under each changing parameter Change in water currents - What are the changes that have occurred related to this climatic parameter? (speed/ direction/temperature-warm and cold currents and etc.) - Are there any specific time period in year for these changes to occur Changes in rainfall - Can these changes be predicted now? intensity XXXV Changes in rainfall pattern Increasing storm intensity and frequency Sea level rise - What are the impacts of these changes have on fishing activities (fishing time and days, catch, Catchability and carrying capacity) Are there any advantages of these changes? (for fish/fishery) What are the impacts of these changes have on fish? (growth, fecundity and etc) Do you have any idea why these changes occur? How much of extra cost will you have to bear due to climate change? Does climate change have any effects on fish prices? Which has the most effect on fishery; either climate change or other issues related to fishery? Key informant discussion-03 and 04 Technological change in the sector i What are the technological advancements/ changes took place related to fishery after tsunami? ii How tsunami contributed to technological change in the fisheries sector iii What are the advantages and disadvantages of this technological change? Destructive fishing i ii iii What is the status of destructive fishing in Godawaya coastal area and overall Hambantota district? What are the most common destructive fishing techniques practiced in the area? What are there impacts on fish resource in the area? XXXVI Climate change Is there any reduction of fish catch (point in time-during 1990s/ before tsunami-2000/after tsunami-2005/2010/2015) Change -Yes/No During 1990s 2000 2005 Season Off-season Reasons you think why catch is changed/reduced? 1.Climate change ‒ Change in water currents ‒ Change in Rainfall Comments Amount pattern ‒ Storms ‒ Sea level rise ‒ Other 2.Other reasons XXXVII 2015 Appendix 10 Annual Effort and Annual SSF catch Table 10.1 Annual effort (standardize effort units) vs Annual SSF catch YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Annual Effort (Std Vessels) 2954 3575 4233 5182 6114 7238 8120 8777 9486 10049 10630 11378 13442 15808 18232 4412 6445 8887 10500 13104 16585 20961 25178 33278 44361 50425 55198 58865 SSF CATCH (MT) 10240 11768 13296 13743 15204 23260 25431 27805 28712 31336 31850 26217 25163 20139 20246 4896 13486 18224 18044 17910 16853 22520 22781 24477 52501 47904 45046 49259 XXXVIII ... Giang KHANH HOA 2019 ii UNDERTAKING I undertake that the thesis entitled: ? ?An integrated approach to the assessment of post tsunami status of the fisheries with further reference to climate change: ...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY SINGHALAGE SHANIKA SHRIMANI WERALUGOLLA AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF POST TSUNAMI STATUS OF THE FISHERIES WITH FURTHER REFERENCE. .. understand and analyse the above biological and economic changes and their impacts on the small-scale fisheries sector, with evidence from the Hambantota district of the southern province of Sri Lanka,