The impact of climate change on wetland resources along lake wamala, mityana district, uganda

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY BAKER MATOVU THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLAND RESOURCES ALONG LAKE WAMALA, MITYANA DISTRICT, UGANDA MASTER THESIS KHANH HOA-2018 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY BAKER MATOVU THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLAND RESOURCES ALONG LAKE WAMALA, MITYANA DISTRICT, UGANDA MASTER THESIS Major Marine Ecosystem Based Management and Climate Change Code: Topic Allocation Decision Decision on establishing the Committee: Defense Date: Supervisors: Dr Nghia Ngo Dang Dr Pradeep Kumara Terney Chairman of the Committee: Faculty of Graduate Studies: KHANH HOA-2018 DECLARATION/UNDERTAKING I undertake that the thesis entitled; “The Impact of Climate Change on wetland resources along Lake Wamala, Mityana District, Uganda” is my own work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted DATE: ………… /………… /………… SIGNATURE: ……………………………………… Matovu Baker ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express the deepest appreciation NORAD/NORHED Project in conjunction with Nha Trang University for helping and giving me the best platform and conditions to write and finish my studies and Master’s thesis Special thanks go to Dr Nghia Ngo Dang and Dr Pradeep Terney Kumara for not only supervising my research but also the continuous support during my study, patience, motivation, enthusiasm, immense knowledge and insights you gave me I must say it was a cornerstone in polishing up my thesis and developing new ideas that made this work a fruition Special gratitude to my academic mentors and counselors notably; Dr Jerome Sebadduka Lugumira of Washington, USA, Thomas Russell Cummins of Calgary, Canada and Russ Harvey; I am always indebted to you as you have been the drivers of this journey to date I hope I have not disappointed you Lastly but not least, I would like to thank my family; my parents, brothers and sisters and relatives for the financial, moral and spiritual support in all my endeavors even during the times of trial I have to assure you that I hope to reciprocate such selflessness DATE: …… /………… /………… SIGNATURE: ……………………………………… Matovu Baker Contents CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1.2 Statement of the problem 1.3 Justification of the study .6 1.4 Objectives 1.4.1 Overall objective .6 1.4.2 Specific Objectives CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Climate Change/Global Warming and Manifestation .8 2.2 Uganda and climate change vulnerability 12 2.3 Lake Wamala, changes in wetland resources and its surrounding environment 14 CHAPTER THREE 15 3.0 Research Methods and Materials .15 3.1 Study Area 15 3.2 Study methods 17 3.3 Study Design 18 3.3 Data Acquisition 19 3.4 Data synthesis and Analysis 20 3.4.1 Temperature 20 3.4.2 Rainfall 20 3.4.3 Water Balance changes 20 CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS 21 4.1 Demographic Characteristics of Households 21 4.2 Local Communities’ Perception on Climate Change 23 4.3 Water Level changes 24 4.4 Climate Variability and Livelihood 24 4.5 Climate change and wetland resources 25 4.6 General causes of wetland resource loss 26 4.7 Main Risks associated with wetland resource loss 28 4.8 Mitigation and Adaptation measures 28 4.8.1 Local Communities Adaptation 28 4.8.2 Government interventions or adaptation strategies 30 CHAPTER FIVE: DISCUSSION 32 5.1 Climate Trend Analysis and Perception 32 5.1.1 Impact of climate change on wetland resources .32 5.2 Climate variability and livelihoods 35 5.3 Climate Variability and wetland resources 36 5.4 Causes of Wetland Resources Loss 37 5.5 Risks associated with illicit wetland resource degradation and loss 38 5.6 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies .39 5.7 Relationship between Lake Wamala’s Demographic Characteristics and Climate change adaptation 41 CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .44 6.1 Conclusions 44 6.2 Recommendations 45 Implementation plan and estimated budget 48 REFERENCES .49 Appendices .66 Appendix Semi structured questionnaire for data collection 66 Appendix Data entry and analysis format 74 Appendix Selected Demographic Characteristics of Uganda 74 Appendix Annual minimum and maximum Temperatures (OC) extracted from Mubende Station, data from 1990-2012 75 Appendix Annual Rainfall pattern (mm) recorded at Mubende Weather Station around Lake Wamala, 1990-2011 .76 Appendix Monthly Average Rainfall (mm) for Mubende Weather Station near Lake Wamala, 1990-2012 77 Appendix Decadal average temperature (OC) from Mubende Station around Lake Wamala, 1990-2012 77 Appendix Historical Monthly Temperature (OC) variations for Mityana District 77 Appendix Annual mean minimum and mean maximum temperature anomalies (OC) time series analysis for Mubende weather station near Lake Wamala 1990-2012 78 Appendix 10 Annual average rainfall anomalies (mm) and Standard Precipitation Indexes (SPI) for Mubende Weather Station near Lake Wamala from 1990-2012 79 Appendix 11 Relative proportion of gender in the study areas around Lake Wamala .80 Appendix 12 Relative percentage of marital status of the sampled respondents around Lake Wamala 80 Appendix 13 Relative Proportion of the education level of the respondents around Lake Wamala 81 Appendix 15 Relative proportion of community adaptation strategies in each sampled zone around Lake Wamala .82 Appendix 16 Relative proportion of government strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change in each specific zone around Lake Wamala 83 LIST OF ACRONYMS COP: Conference of Parties CPUE: Catch per Unit Effort FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization GHGs: Green House Gases GNF: Global Nature Fund GoU: Government of Uganda ICBD: Increased Cost of Doing Business INC: Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IUCN: International Union for the Conservation of Nature KEA: Kikandwa Environmental Association LVFO: Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization MAAIF: Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fisheries MWE: Ministry of Water and Environment NaFIRRI: National Fisheries Resources Research Institute NAPA: National Adaptation Program for Action NEMA: National Environment Management Authority NWP: National Wetlands Program SPI: Standard Precipitation Index UBOS: Uganda Bureau of Statistics UNDP: United Nations Development Program UNEP: United Nations Environment Program UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID: United States Agency for International Development WMD: Wetlands Management Department LIST OF TABLES Table 4-1: Percentage of respondents for each area…………………………………… 22 Table 4-2: Relative Proportion of the impact of climate change on livelihood………27 Table 4-3: Relative Proportion of the impact of climate change on specific area wetland resources………………………………………………………………………………29 Table 4-4 Relationship between wetland resource losses on livelihoods due to climate change….………………………………………………………………………… 29 Table 4-5: Proportion of community adaptation strategies……………………………33 Table 4-6 Proportion of critical areas in need of government support for adaptation……34 Table 4-7 Proportion of critical occupations in need of government support for adaptation………………………………………………………………………… 35 LIST OF FIGURES/GRAPHS Figure 2-1: Current and Projected Temperature changes in Uganda……………….…13 Figure 3-1: Spatial extent of Lake Wamala and the sampled villages …………………17 Figure 3-2: Climate change impact assessment…………………………………… 18 Figure 4-1: Relative Percentage of households in the sampled areas……………… 22 Figure 4-2: Relative proportion of community occupation (s) in the sampled areas… 23 Figure 4-3: Relative percentage of local people perception on climate change……….24 Figure 4-4: Frequency of wet and dry months along Lake Wamala……………………25 Figure 4-5: SPI Series assessing the drought occurrence in relation to the probability of observed total annual rainfall changing from average…………………………………25 Figure 4-6: Relationship between Lake Depth and inter-decadal annual rainfall……….26 Figure 4-7: Impact of climate change on community occupation………………… ….27 Figure 4-8: Relative proportion of the effect of climate change on wetland resources…28 Figure 4-9: Relative proportion of the causes of increased wetland resources loss… 30 Figure 4-10: Relative proportion of the risks associated with climate change on local communities………………………………………………………………………… 31 Figure 4-11: Relative impact of climate vagaries on specific occupation……………….32 Figure 4-12: Proportion of community adaptation strategies………………………… 33 Figure 4-13: Relative proportion of government strategies to help local communities’ adaptation and mitigation…………………………………………………………… 35 Figure 5-1: Lake Wamala and its changing spatial extent…………………………… 37 Figure 5-2: Variations in Lake Wamala Water Levels……………………………… 38 Figure 5-3: Exposed Water gauges due to reducing water level……………………… 39 Figure 5-4: Exposed Lacustrine swamp beds due to drought………………………….41 If YES, What form of support has been or is being extended to your community? 1………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………… 2………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………… 3………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………… 4………………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………… END Thanks for your positive and insightful responses that will go a long way in creating positive change in the transformation and sustainable management of our ecosystems and environment Appendix Data entry and analysis format All the extracted data was entered in a spreadsheet for each research question for easy analysis and development of pivot tables and graphs as illustrated in the sample of entered data on the demographic characteristics of the sampled areas in an excel spreadsheet below: PART ONE: DEMOGRAPHIC DATA Respondent Sex Local Area: Age: Marital Education Main Status: Level: Occupation Small Scale Male Buzibazi 29 Single University Farming Male Lusalira 23 Single Tertiary Trade Male Naama 26 Single Tertiary Others(Specify) Male Mpongo 25 Single Tertiary Others(Specify) 10 Male Lusalira 28 Single Primary Fishing Mityana 12 Male Town 25 Single Tertiary Trade 13 Male Mpongo 22 Single Tertiary Others(Specify) 24 Male Naama 24 Single University Others(Specify) 35 Married Tertiary Trade Mityana 31 Male Town Appendix Selected Demographic Characteristics of Uganda Demographic Characteristic Relative Proportion/Percentage Total Land Area 77,147 Sq.Kms Total Population 43,891,308 (est March 2018)/ 0.58% global total Main Livelihood 80% Farming Population Growth Rate 3.2% Birth Rate 42.9 births/1000 Death Rate 10.2 deaths/1000 Total Dependency Ratio 101.6 Poverty Level 19.7% (2016 est) Urban Population 17.1% Rural Population 82.9% Rate of Urbanization 5.3% Age Structure 69.15% 0-24 25-64 28.9% 65+ 1.98% Male Population 49.7% Female Population 50.3% Literacy 78.4% Total Population Male 85.3% Female 71.5% Source: www.worldmeters.org/ Uganda Demographics Profile 2018 estimates (https://www.indexmundi.com/uganda/demographics_profile.html Accessed 6.26am 30.03.2018 Appendix Annual minimum and maximum Temperatures (OC) extracted from Mubende Station, data from 1990-2012 Year Maximum Minimum Average Temperature Temperature Temperature 1990 27.8 16.4 22.1 1991 28.0 16.3 22.1 1992 28.8 15.5 22.2 1993 28.7 15.8 22.3 1994 28.3 16.2 22.3 1995 28.5 15.7 22.1 1996 28.0 15.8 21.9 1997 28.3 15.3 21.8 1998 28.2 15.8 22.0 1999 27.7 15.3 21.6 2000 27.7 15.5 21.7 2001 27.8 15.8 21.8 2002 28.6 15.8 22.2 2003 28.4 16.0 22.2 2004 28.5 15.8 22.1 2005 29.3 16.0 22.7 2006 28.5 16.2 22.3 2007 28.5 16.3 22.4 2008 28.4 15.9 22.2 2009 28.0 17.8 22.5 2010 29.0 16.6 22.8 2011 29.1 16.1 22.6 2012 28.5 17.6 22.8 Appendix Annual Rainfall pattern (mm) recorded at Mubende Weather Station around Lake Wamala, 1990-2011 Year Rainfall Amount Year Rainfall Amount 1990 1276.7 2001 1416 1991 988.7 2002 1354.6 1992 1040.3 2003 1460.3 1993 1016 2004 1087.8 1994 1205.8 2005 969.41 1995 1249.6 2006 1230.5 1996 1200.9 2007 1187.2 1997 1711.6 2008 1039.9 1998 1433.1 2009 1335 1999 1166.4 2010 1326.9 2000 1294.4 2011 1294.5 Source: Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Entebbe, Uganda Appendix Monthly Average Rainfall (mm) for Mubende Weather Station near Lake Wamala, 1990-2012 Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Au Sept Oct Nov De s g c Avera 51.7 52.9 122 130 146 54.8 54 88 117 145 145 85 ge 6 9 Rainfa ll Appendix Decadal average temperature (OC) from Mubende Station around Lake Wamala, 1990-2012 1990-1999 2000-2012 22.1125 21.40174 22.19583 21.85292 22.20833 22.24871 22.30417 22.24217 22.31326 22.18275 22.1902 22.70417 21.90849 22.32273 21.85923 22.47926 22.02537 22.21777 21.56863 22.55833 Appendix Historical Monthly Temperature (OC) variations for Mityana District Months Jan Feb Ma Ap Ma Jun Jul Au Sep Oct No r Average 21 21 Minimu 15 15 m Maximu 28 28 r 21.8 21 16.1 16 27.6 26 y 21.2 20 16.2 15 26.2 26 Dec g t v 20 20 20.9 21 21 21 5 14 14 15 15 9 25 26 26 27 15.2 15 26.6 26 m Source: Uganda Meteorological Authority; Mityana District Historical Precipitation Data (2006-2016) Appendix Annual mean minimum and mean maximum temperature anomalies (OC) time series analysis for Mubende weather station near Lake Wamala 1990-2012 Year Mean Maximum Mean Minimum Temperature Anomaly Temperature Anomaly 1990 -0.4495 0.4292 1991 -0.2162 0.3625 1992 0.6005 -0.4291 1993 0.4755 -0.1125 1994 0.0903 0.2909 1995 0.3234 -0.1883 1996 -0.2479 -0.1804 1997 0.1247 -0.6516 1998 -8.16E-03 -0.1865 1999 -0.5018 -0.6063 2000 -0.9793 -0.4626 2001 -0.414 -0.1255 2002 0.3951 -0.143 2003 0.2077 0.0313 2004 0.3002 -0.18 2005 1.1338 0.0292 2006 0.2255 0.2209 2007 0.3398 0.3733 2008 0.2183 -0.0282 2009 -1.0329 1.9042 2010 0.7088 0.7292 2011 0.9171 0.2875 2012 -0.2412 1.6292 Appendix 10 Annual average rainfall anomalies (mm) and Standard Precipitation Indexes (SPI) for Mubende Weather Station near Lake Wamala from 1990-2012 Year Rainfall anomaly (mm) SPI 1990 99.016 0.5231 1991 -188.98 -0.9983 1992 -137.38 -0.7257 1993 -161.68 -0.8541 1994 28.116 -0.1485 1995 71.916 0.3799 1996 23.216 0.1226 1997 203.516 1.0751 1998 55.316 0.2922 1999 -11.284 -0.0596 2000 116.716 0.6166 2001 238.316 1.2589 2002 176.916 0.9346 2003 282.616 1.4929 2004 -89.884 -0.4748 2005 -208.27 -1.1002 2006 52.816 0.279 2007 9.516 0.0503 2008 -137.78 -0.7278 2009 157.316 0.831 2010 286.516 1.5135 2011 116.816 0.6171 2012 234.016 1.2362 Appendix 11 Relative proportion of gender in the study areas around Lake Wamala Gender Mityana Naama Buzibazi Mpongo Lusalira Nkonya Male 12% 14% 10% 12% 6% 6% Female 10% 5% 8% 4% 7% 6% Total 22% 19% 18% 16% 13% 12% Appendix 12 Relative percentage of marital status of the sampled respondents around Lake Wamala Marital Mityana Naama Buzibazi Mpongo Lusalira Nkonya Status Single 18% 11% 6% 11% 7% 7% Married 4% 3% 10% 4% 6% 4% Widow 0% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% Others 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% Total 22% 19% 18% 16% 13% 12% Appendix 13 Relative Proportion of the education level of the respondents around Lake Wamala Level Mityana Naama Buzibazi Mpongo Lusalira Nkonya University 11% 8% 5% 3% 3% 4% Tertiary 8% 6% 5% 8% 2% 2% Secondary 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% 5% Primary 1% 1% 5% 3% 6% 1% Total 22% 19% 18% 16% 13% 12% Appendix 14: Climate variability on wetland resources (Negative impact on wetland resources Resource Proportion of impact (%) Swamp plants and fruits 36% Water 25% Fertile soils 17% Wetland birds 12% Sand 10% Total 100% Appendix 15 Relative proportion of community adaptation strategies in each sampled zone around Lake Wamala Adaptation Mityana Naama Buzibazi Mpongo Lusalira Nkonya Best Strategy Adaptation strategy Afforestation 3.70% 0% 1.85% 0% 5.56% 0% 11.11% (3) Co- 5.56% 5.56% 3.70% 1.85% 0% 3.70% 20.37% (2) on 9.26% 3.70% 5.56% 1.85% 1.85% 3.70% 25.92% (1) 1.85% 1.85% 0% 0% 0% 3.7%(9) management Training diversification Rehabilitation 0% of infrastructure Resettlement 0% 1.85% 0% 0% 3.70% 0% 5.55%(7) Seasonal 0% 0% 3.70% 1.85% 1.85% 0% 7.4% (5) of 3.70% 0% 3.70% 0% 0% 0% 7.4% (5) 1.85% 0% 0% 1.85% 0% 5.55%(7) 5.56% 0% 3.70% 0% 1.85% 11.11% (3) 9.26% 14.81% 9.26% fishing Use trenches and embankments Use of ground 1.85% water aquifers Village 0% policing teams Total 24.07% 20.37% 22.22% 100% Appendix 16 Relative proportion of government strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change in each specific zone around Lake Wamala Adaptation Buzibazi Lusalira Mityana Mpongo Naama Nkonya Best town option Eviction 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% Extension 1% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 6%(2) 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%(9) 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3%(6) 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 3%(6) 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 4%(5) 2% 0% 6% 0% 0% 1% 9%(1) 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 3%(6) Training of 0% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 5%(4) 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 6%(2) 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2%(9) 10% 6% 11% 3% 10% 6% 45% services Fish farming Gazetting wetlands Providing soft loans Publicprivate partnership Sensitizing people Strict laws local people District enforcement teams Weather information sharing Total Appendix 17 Annual Rainfall Trends and Anomalies around Lake Wamala Appendix 18 Inter-decadal variations in temperature around Lake Wamala Source: National Meteorological Station, Mubende Appendix 19 Selected General Demographic characteristics of Mityana District Demographic Characteristic Relative Proportion or Percentage Total Population 343,500 (0.78% of Uganda’s total) est.2017 Urban Population 34% (2014.est) Rural Population 66% Main Livelihood 63.10% Farming Other Income Sources 27% Gender Males 50.4% Females 49.6% Literacy Level Literate 79.4% Illiterate 20.6% Working Population Working 52.4% Not Working 47.6% Population Structure 0-19 56.1% 20-59 30.1% 60+ 4.9% Elevation 1,209 Meters Above Sea Level Access to safe water 29% SOURCE: UBOS; Mityana District Demographic Statistics Estimates, 2014-2017 Appendix 20 Mityana District Sub-Counties Demographic Statistics Sub County Male Femal Total Sex Ratio % of Populati e Populati Male/100Fem Distri on on ale Density ct Land Area Mityana Municipality Busimbi 50.08 (Naama&Nkonya) % Central (Mityana 47.09 Town) % Taamu 49.9% 49.9% 46% 100.3 5.3% 191 52.9% 17.2% 89 3.9% 962 50.08 7.1% 99.5 6.3% 245 % Banda(Lusalira,Buzi 51.6% 48.3% 4.1% 106.7 5.7% 156 Butayunja 51.2% 48.7% 3.3% 105.2 4.4% 162 Kakindu 51.6% 48.3% 5.6% 106.7 5.5% 220 Maanyi (Mpongo) 51.9% 48.0% 6.5% 108.3 8.97 155 bazi) % Malangala 49.3% 50.6% 7.3% 97.6 6.03 263 % Bulera 51.9% 48% 9.1% 107.9 12% 164 Kalangalo 51.0% 49% 9.3% 104.5 12.2 165 % Kikandwa 51.4% 48.5% 9.02% 106 11.9 164 % Namungo 51.6% 48.4% 5.2% 106.7 6.04 186 % Sekanyonyi 50.9% 49% 11.5% 103.8 11.9 207 % TOTAL 165,7 163,2 17 47 328,964 101.5 Source: National Population and Housing Census 2014 p151 Appendix 21: Mityana District; counties and sub-counties 1,525 216 ... Faculty of Graduate Studies: KHANH HOA-2018 DECLARATION/UNDERTAKING I undertake that the thesis entitled; ? ?The Impact of Climate Change on wetland resources along Lake Wamala, Mityana District, Uganda? ??... Proportion of the effect of climate change on wetland resources The effect of climate variability on specific resources vary for each area In Nkonya, 8% of the respondents reported that wetland. .. management options The research focused on local areas along Lake Wamala to generate information on the impact of climate change on wetland resources Results point out that increased climate change and