(Luận văn thạc sĩ) microcredit and welfare of the rural households in vietnam

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ***** Pham Tien Thanh MICROCREDIT AND WELFARE OF THE RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN VIETNAM PHD DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY, 2018 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ***** Pham Tien Thanh MICROCREDIT AND WELFARE OF THE RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN VIETNAM Major: Development Economics Code: 9310105 PHD DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS ACADEMIC ADVISORS Dr PHAM KHANH NAM Assoc Prof Dr NGUYEN HUU DUNG HO CHI MINH CITY, 2018 i COMMITMENTS I hereby declare that this dissertation is my own work and it has not been previously submitted for a degree elsewhere While my work contains information from works done by other authors, all these references have been explicitly cited To the best of my knowledge, I would like to certify that the above statements are true The dissertation has been done under the supervision of Dr Pham Khanh Nam and Assoc.Prof.Dr Nguyen Huu Dung, the University of Economics, Hochiminh City This work was also done under the advice of Assoc.Prof.Dr Katsuhiro Saito, the University of Tokyo during my fellowship period granted by the World Bank Robert S McNamara at the University of Tokyo, Japan Pham Tien Thanh ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am deeply indebted to my academic supervisors Dr Pham Khanh Nam and Assoc.Prof.Dr Nguyen Huu Dung at the University of Economics Dr Nam and Assoc.Prof.Dr Dung have supported me a lot during my study They have also provided me with useful academic advice, valuable feedbacks, and encouragement I am also grateful to my academic advisor Assoc.Prof.Dr Katsuhiro Saito, who instructs me in applied econometrics, during my fellowship granted by the World Bank Robert S McNamara at the University of Tokyo I would also like to thank the academic committee at the University of Economics and the two independent external reviewers who gave me a lot of useful and precious comments, which thereby help me improve my dissertation I am also thankful to my lecturers who give me knowledge and advice on my dissertation I am particularly grateful to Assoc.Prof.Dr Pham Bao Duong, my academic supervisor of master thesis, who encourage as well as support me with data and comments on my Ph.D dissertation I would also like to say thank to Mr Nguyen Khanh Duy at the University of Economics for many of his advice on research methodology and encouragement Last but not least, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my family, colleagues, and friends for their encouragement and support during the time I conduct my Ph.D dissertation Pham Tien Thanh iii TABLE OF CONTENTS COMMITMENTS i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii ABBREVIATIONS viii LIST OF TABLES .ix LIST OF FIGURES xi CHAPTER - INTRODUCTION 1.1 Backgrounds 1.2 Research problems 1.2.1 Accessibility to microcredit 1.2.2 Microcredit and adoption of improved rice varieties 1.2.3 Impact of microcredit on households’ welfare 1.2.4 Microcredit and health shock 1.3 Research objectives 10 1.4 Scopes of research 11 1.5 Research data 11 1.6 Research methods 11 1.6.1 Quantitative methods 11 1.6.2 Qualitative methods 12 1.7 Contribution of the research 12 1.7.1 Theoretical contributions 12 1.7.2 Practical contributions 13 1.8 Organization of the research 14 CHAPTER – LITERATURE REVIEW 15 2.1 Overview of microcredit 15 2.1.1 Some definitions 15 2.1.2 Characteristics of microcredit 16 2.2 Theory 17 iv 2.2.1 Overview of rural credit market 17 2.2.2 Asymmetric information 20 2.2.3 Theories on accessibility to credit 23 2.2.3.1 Theory of choice (Demand for credit) .23 2.2.3.2 Theory of credit rationing 24 2.2.4 Theoretical framework of outreach of microcredit 27 2.2.5 Farm household model under credit constraint 29 2.2.5.1 Producer problem .29 2.2.5.2 Consumer problem .30 2.2.5.3 Worker problem 30 2.2.5.4 Farm household model with credit 31 2.3 Empirical studies 32 2.3.1 Determinants of rural households’ accessibility to microcredit 32 2.3.2 Impact of microcredit on adoption of the improved rice varieties 38 2.3.3 Impact of microcredit on living standard 40 2.3.3.1 Empirical studies in the world 40 2.3.3.2 Empirical studies in Vietnam .41 2.3.4 Impact of health shocks and role of microcredit 44 2.3.4.1 Impacts of health shocks 44 2.3.4.2 Strategies to cope with health shocks and role of microcredit 46 2.4 Definitions of welfare 48 2.5 Logical framework of impact evaluation of microcredit on welfare 49 CHAPTER – OVERVIEW OF MICROCREDIT 52 3.1 Microcredit in the world 52 3.2 Microcredit in rural Vietnam 54 3.2.1 Microcredit providers 54 3.2.2 Credit activities and clients 59 3.2.3 Poverty reduction role of microcredit 61 v CHAPTER – DETERMINANTS OF ACCESSIBILITY TO MICROCREDIT 62 4.1 Research method 62 4.1.1 Estimation strategy 63 4.1.2 Selection of variables 65 4.1.2.1 Dependent variable 65 4.1.2.2 Explanatory Variables 66 4.1.3 Research hypotheses 68 4.2 Research data 70 4.2.1 Data source 70 4.2.2 Research sample 71 4.2.3 Descriptive statistics 71 4.3 Results and discussions 74 CHAPTER – MICROCREDIT AND ADOPTION OF IMPROVED RICE VARIETIES 82 5.1 Research method 82 5.1.1 Estimation strategy 82 5.1.2 Selection of variables 86 5.1.2.1 Dependent variables 86 5.1.2.2 Independent variables 87 5.1.3 Research hypotheses 88 5.2 Research data 88 5.2.1 Data source 88 5.2.2 Research sample 88 5.2.3 Descriptive statistics 89 5.3 Results and discussions 91 CHAPTER – IMPACT EVALUATION OF MICROCREDIT ON WELFARE 103 6.1 Research method 103 6.1.1 Estimation strategy 103 6.1.1.1 Propensity Score Matching (PSM) 103 vi 6.1.1.2 Difference in Difference (DID) .105 6.1.1.3 PSM-DID 105 6.1.2 Selection of variables 107 6.1.2.1 Microcredit variable 107 6.1.2.2 Variables for calculation of propensity score 107 6.1.2.3 Welfare variables .108 6.1.3 Research hypotheses 108 6.2 Research data 109 6.2.1 Data source 109 6.2.2 Research sample 110 6.2.3 Descriptive statistics 110 6.3 Results and discussions 110 6.3.1 Propensity score and balancing test 110 6.3.2 Average impact of microcredit program 113 CHAPTER – ROLE OF MICROCREDIT IN MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF HEALTH SHOCKS 121 7.1 Research method 121 7.1.1 Estimation strategy 121 7.1.2 Selection of variable 123 7.1.2.1 Dependent variables 123 7.1.2.2 Health shocks variables 123 7.1.2.3 Microcredit variable 124 7.1.2.4 Other control (explanatory) variables 125 7.1.3 Research hypotheses 126 7.2 Research data 126 7.2.1 Data source 126 7.2.2 Research sample 127 7.2.3 Descriptive statistics 127 7.3 Results and discussions 129 vii 7.3.1 Are health shocks unanticipated? 129 7.3.2 First stage results using instrumental variables 130 7.3.3 Illness/ Disease/ Injury of working-age members (HS1W) 133 7.3.4 Illness/ Disease/ Injury of any members (HS1A) 136 CHAPTER – CONCLUSIONS 138 8.1 Objective 1: Determinants of accessibility to microcredit 138 8.1.1 Summary 138 8.1.2 Policy implications 139 8.1.3 Limitations and further studies 141 8.2 Objective 2: Microcredit and adoption of improved varieties 142 8.2.1 Summary 142 8.2.2 Policy implications 143 8.2.3 Limitations and further studies 144 8.3 Objective 3: Impact evaluation of microcredit on welfare 145 8.3.1 Summary 145 8.3.2 Policy implications 146 8.3.3 Limitations and further studies 147 8.4 Objective 4: Role of microcredit in mitigating the effects of health shocks 148 8.4.1 Summary 148 8.4.2 Policy implications 149 8.4.3 Limitations and further studies 149 REFERENCE 150 Reference in the world 150 Reference in Vietnam 167 Websites 171 APPENDICES 172 viii ABBREVIATIONS Abbr Meanings MF Microfinance MFIs Microfinance Institutions PCFs People’s Credit Funds ROSCAs Rotating Savings Credit Associations VBSP Vietnam Bank for Social Policies VBARD Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development VPSC Postal Savings Company 225 CO135 COFAR ROAD IMARK REGI1 is based REGI2 REGI3 REGI4 REGI5 REGI6 Constant Observations Note: 0.319 (0.378) 0.133 (0.427) -0.114 (-0.167) 0.561*** (3.544) 0.336 (0.422) 0.00248 (0.00980) -0.0870 (-0.129) 0.651*** (3.447) 1.791** (2.236) -0.477 (-1.180) -1.209** (-2.206) 1.113*** (2.638) 0.610 (0.522) -0.767 (-1.471) 0.232 (0.221) 1.490 (1.195) 0.252 (0.120) 0.222 (0.167) 0.112 (0.0635) 1.959* (1.870) 0.822** (2.043) -0.304** (-2.324) -0.763** (-2.230) 0.459 (1.083) 0.959 (1.152) -0.579 (-1.169) -1.290*** (-2.687) 0.637*** (2.793) 0.752 (0.693) -0.0688 (-0.103) -0.477 (-0.860) 0.564 (0.989) 0.103 (1.017) -0.0273 (-0.418) 0.0369 (0.598) 0.0194 (0.264) 0.746 (1.135) -0.0102 (-0.128) -0.0192 (-0.237) 0.482 (1.186) 0.797 (1.169) -0.0184 (-0.411) 0.0340 (0.740) 0.275 (1.045) -0.167 (-0.226) -0.382 (-0.459) -0.902 (-1.117) -0.835 (-1.036) -0.742 (-0.748) -0.00119 (-0.00120) 3,021 -0.599 (-0.937) -0.740 (-0.968) -1.083 (-1.534) -0.968 (-1.337) -1.026 (-1.109) 0.208 (0.228) 3,021 -1.169** (-2.364) -1.361** (-1.963) -0.906 (-1.557) -0.891 (-1.279) -2.036*** (-2.877) 1.403** (2.402) 3,021 -1.708 (-1.345) -2.472* (-1.801) -0.242 (-0.189) -0.570 (-0.382) -0.625 (-0.397) 0.0435 (0.0403) 3,021 -4.075*** (-3.356) -2.730** (-2.296) -2.418** (-2.359) -3.323** (-2.175) -2.533 (-1.379) 0.373 (0.203) 3,021 -0.484 (-0.914) -0.380 (-0.673) -0.172 (-0.346) -0.281 (-0.471) -0.910 (-1.581) 0.495 (1.217) 3,021 -0.0931 (-0.237) -0.502 (-1.349) 0.577 (0.954) 0.301 (0.596) -0.936* (-1.797) 0.782 (1.511) 3,021 -0.411 (-0.518) -0.305 (-0.343) -0.479 (-0.570) -0.348 (-0.347) -0.706 (-0.909) 0.115 (0.196) 3,021 -0.0259 (-0.239) -0.0530 (-0.465) -0.552 (-0.855) 0.0108 (0.129) -0.0126 (-0.118) -0.0750 (-0.695) 3,021 -0.813 (-1.511) -0.478 (-1.146) -0.515 (-1.263) -0.507 (-1.246) -0.448 (-1.076) -0.0984 (-0.880) 3,021 -0.599 (-1.362) -0.287 (-1.042) -0.401 (-1.130) -0.286 (-1.056) -0.242 (-0.880) -0.131 (-1.404) 3,021 T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and ***: significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively 226 APPENDIX 7.8 Impact of HS1A and the Role of Microcredit – Without VFE VARIABLES HS1A (β1) HS1A*CR (β2) MARI GENDER ETHI GRAD SIZE SFEM SAGE1 SAGE3 LAND1 LAND2 HOME POOR INSU EINC TINC TCON ECON HCON FCON NCFD NCFA CHILD OLD NWW -0.00882 (-0.292) 0.000469 (0.120) 0.0365 (0.877) 0.0655* (1.852) 0.122*** (3.060) -0.00211 (-0.606) 0.0322** (2.518) -0.00780 (-0.549) -0.0214* (-1.646) -0.0596*** (-3.204) -0.0371** (-2.187) 0.00299 (0.330) -0.0796 (-0.892) -0.0457 (-1.310) -0.00516 (-0.627) -0.0169 (-0.661) 0.000326 (0.0977) -0.00809 (-0.232) 0.0723** (2.363) 0.123*** (3.452) -0.00458 (-1.552) -0.0151 (-1.354) 0.0161 (1.230) -0.0129 (-1.083) -0.0437*** (-2.909) -0.0313* (-1.951) 0.00497 (0.572) -0.0179 (-0.250) -0.0557* (-1.940) 0.00160 (0.213) 0.0669** (2.299) 0.000632 (0.214) 0.0230 (0.570) 0.00780 (0.215) 0.0701* (1.791) -0.0107*** (-3.179) -0.0347*** (-2.836) -0.00184 (-0.121) -0.00956 (-0.723) -0.0559*** (-3.236) -0.00118 (-0.0672) 0.00742 (0.622) 0.0177 (0.210) -0.00891 (-0.276) 0.0203** (2.450) 0.0832* (1.761) -0.00357 (-0.546) -0.0439 (-0.666) -0.0450 (-0.730) -0.0370 (-0.574) 0.00701 (1.226) -0.0205 (-0.951) -0.0141 (-0.555) 0.247*** (10.57) -0.0199 (-0.745) -0.0540 (-1.559) -0.0201 (-0.780) 0.0823 (0.543) -0.0968* (-1.822) 0.0212 (1.459) 0.313*** (5.919) 0.0127** (2.304) 0.116 (1.418) -0.0165 (-0.231) -0.0378 (-0.459) -0.000937 (-0.133) -0.00167 (-0.0661) -0.0339 (-1.118) 0.00756 (0.274) 0.0301 (0.878) 0.0403 (1.122) -0.0559** (-2.126) -0.281 (-1.465) 0.0164 (0.237) 0.0347** (1.990) 0.0138 (0.682) 0.000263 (0.145) -0.0257 (-0.839) 0.0113 (0.409) 0.0312 (1.127) -0.00239 (-0.986) 0.0371*** (4.076) -0.00937 (-0.870) -0.000446 (-0.0478) -0.0380*** (-2.977) -0.00540 (-0.392) -0.00887 (-0.916) 0.00438 (0.0679) -0.0203 (-0.838) 0.0145** (2.347) -0.0218 (-0.783) 0.00832*** (2.765) -0.0440 (-1.066) 0.00162 (0.0438) 0.0296 (0.692) -0.000184 (-0.0541) 0.0441*** (3.536) -0.00763 (-0.507) 0.0234* (1.790) -0.0284* (-1.688) -0.00774 (-0.431) -0.00505 (-0.391) -0.0415 (-0.481) 0.0112 (0.324) 0.0145 (1.587) 0.0479 (1.295) 0.00388 (1.119) 0.00795 (0.154) -0.0343 (-0.743) 0.122** (2.425) -0.00913** (-2.071) 0.0387** (2.422) -0.00659 (-0.332) -0.00294 (-0.170) -0.0526** (-2.381) -0.0186 (-0.745) 0.0142 (0.778) 0.0283 (0.264) 0.0288 (0.677) 0.00273 (0.253) -0.00417 (-0.289) -0.00228 (-0.980) -0.0107 (-0.661) -0.00194 (-0.142) 0.0173 (0.887) 0.00322* (1.733) -0.0218*** (-3.559) -0.0139* (-1.915) 0.0706*** (7.747) 0.0225*** (3.074) 0.00331 (0.282) -0.00634 (-0.656) 0.0275 (0.664) -0.0151 (-0.742) -0.00258 (-0.600) 0.0117 (0.563) -0.000824 (-0.253) 0.0630* (1.765) -0.0355 (-1.187) -0.0415 (-1.427) 0.00592** (2.349) 0.0118 (1.326) -0.0157 (-1.566) -0.00382 (-0.414) 0.118*** (7.215) -0.00764 (-0.555) 0.00430 (0.392) -0.0399 (-0.913) 0.00606 (0.230) -0.00528 (-0.878) -0.000247 (-0.0134) -0.00216 (-0.846) 0.0395 (1.411) -0.0219 (-0.914) 0.00135 (0.0520) 0.00704*** (2.974) -0.0108 (-1.468) -0.0279*** (-3.277) 0.0483*** (4.979) 0.107*** (8.165) -0.00146 (-0.108) -0.00207 (-0.181) 0.00311 (0.0623) -0.00739 (-0.285) -0.00617 (-1.156) 227 CO135 COFAR ROAD IMARK REGI1 is based REGI2 REGI3 REGI4 REGI5 REGI6 Constant Observations Note: 0.0313 (0.914) 0.0627** (2.022) 0.00856 (0.233) -0.0341 (-1.457) 0.0275 (0.896) 0.0545** (1.983) 0.0147 (0.451) -0.0163 (-0.787) 0.00598 (0.165) 0.0294 (0.932) -0.00456 (-0.116) 0.0241 (1.041) 0.0418 (0.680) 0.0448 (0.848) 0.0466 (0.683) -0.0161 (-0.419) 0.0234 (0.306) -0.0374 (-0.575) 0.0553 (0.668) -0.0404 (-0.872) 0.00724 (0.295) 0.0387* (1.711) 0.0241 (0.894) -0.00860 (-0.530) -0.0838** (-2.404) 0.110*** (3.479) -0.0450 (-1.159) 0.0455** (1.981) 0.0146 (0.309) 0.0228 (0.564) 0.0197 (0.393) 0.0290 (0.969) 0.00597 (0.287) -0.00422 (-0.256) 0.0282 (1.129) -0.00478 (-0.424) 0.00737 (0.270) 0.00882 (0.399) 0.0276 (0.966) -0.0148 (-0.907) 0.0244 (0.918) 0.00337 (0.158) 0.0538* (1.901) -0.0264* (-1.713) -0.0442 (-1.067) -0.0321 (-0.924) 0.115** (2.221) -0.0646 (-1.306) -0.0416 (-1.047) 0.0249 (0.216) 3,021 -0.0428 (-1.167) -0.0129 (-0.445) 0.120*** (2.640) -0.0746* (-1.833) -0.0758** (-2.300) 0.126 (1.350) 3,021 0.0330 (0.843) -0.0241 (-0.732) 0.0157 (0.304) -0.0280 (-0.624) -0.104*** (-2.849) 0.139 (1.241) 3,021 0.000269 (0.00414) 0.0203 (0.387) 0.0727 (0.917) 0.000423 (0.00569) 0.0679 (1.138) -0.143 (-0.759) 3,021 -0.0839 (-1.041) -0.113* (-1.766) -0.117 (-1.123) -0.136 (-1.566) -0.0764 (-1.091) 0.156 (0.648) 3,021 -0.0597** (-2.179) -0.0800*** (-3.356) -0.116*** (-3.132) -0.00227 (-0.0623) -0.138*** (-5.458) -0.0163 (-0.197) 3,021 -0.0448 (-1.089) -0.105*** (-3.167) -0.0943* (-1.885) -0.0222 (-0.495) -0.146*** (-3.896) 0.0165 (0.143) 3,021 0.0730 (1.396) -0.0358 (-0.834) 0.0309 (0.455) 0.0600 (1.042) -0.0802* (-1.701) -0.189 (-1.361) 3,021 -0.0263 (-1.539) -0.0131 (-1.020) -0.0495** (-2.267) -0.00326 (-0.204) -0.00488 (-0.312) -0.0407 (-0.745) 3,021 -0.00176 (-0.0626) -0.00470 (-0.196) -0.00861 (-0.246) -0.0115 (-0.451) 0.0199 (0.766) -0.00855 (-0.132) 3,021 -0.0295 (-1.143) -0.0152 (-0.694) -0.0273 (-0.879) -0.0132 (-0.538) 0.0186 (0.789) -0.0567 (-0.843) 3,021 T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and ***: significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively 228 APPENDIX 8.1 Access to Credit by Poverty status Source Microcredit Non-microcredit Formal Informal Any Sources Total NTP Commune No Yes 401 484 (45.3%) (54.7%) 1005 891 (53.0%) (47.0%) 975 933 (51.1%) (48.9%) 487 480 (50.4%) (49.6%) 1355 1299 (51.1%) (48.9%) 3849 3239 (54.3%) (45.7%) Poverty Status No Yes 649 236 (73.3%) (26.7%) 1496 400 (78.9%) (21.1%) 1468 440 (76.9%) (23.1%) 755 212 (78.1%) (21.9%) 2058 596 (77.5%) (22.5%) 5514 1574 (77.8%) (22.2%) Total 885 (100%) 1896 (100%) 1908 (100%) 967 (100%) 2654 (100%) 7088 (100%) APPENDIX 8.2 Difficulties in Accessing to Agricultural Input (Seed, Fertilizers) Difficulties No difficulties Lack of suppliers Prices too high Not enough information Not able to buy on credit Not enough access to credit Poor transport infrastructure Other Difficulties Total Non-adopters Adopters Whole Sample No % No % No % 305 63.7% 1,424 72.7% 1729 70.9% 18 3.8% 84 4.3% 102 4.2% 37 7.7% 217 11.1% 254 10.4% 16 3.3% 55 2.8% 71 2.9% 15 3.1% 73 3.7% 88 3.6% 1.3% 0.2% 10 0.4% 76 15.9% 97 5.0% 173 7.1% 1.3% 0.3% 11 0.5% 479 100.0% 1,959 100.0% 2,438 100.0% ... evidence for the local authorities, policy-makers and practitioners to recognize and understand the role of microcredit in fostering investment and then improving living standard of the rural households. .. whether to adopt the improved varieties There have been limited number of studies on the decision of farmers in the two stages, including whether to adopt and intensity of adoption In Vietnam, there...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ***** Pham Tien Thanh MICROCREDIT AND WELFARE OF THE RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN VIETNAM Major: Development