Modeling storm surge and flood mapping for kien thuy and do son district, hai phong city

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF ARGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY PHAN TUAN ANH MODELING STORM SURGE AND FLOOD MAPPING FOR KIEN THUY AND DO SON DISTRICT, HAI PHONG CITY THESIS OF MASTER DEGREE Ha Noi, 2016 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF ARGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY PHAN TUAN ANH MODELING STORM SURGE AND FLOOD MAPPING FOR KIEN THUY AND DO SON DISTRICT, HAI PHONG CITY Major: Coastal Engineering and Management Majors code: 62580203 SUPERVISORS: Assoc.Prof.Dr Tran Thanh Tung Dr Le Tuan Hai Declaration I declare that I have developed and written the enclosed Master Thesis completely by myself, and have not used sources or means without declaration in the text Any thoughts from others or literal quotations are clearly marked The Master Thesis was not used in the same or in a similar version to achieve an academic grading or is being published elsewhere Ha Noi, Aug 17, 2016 Author Phan Tuan Anh i Preface I first thank my parents and my brother for their support throughout not only the past two years, but throughout my entire life I am truly grateful for all the opportunities and support provided by my family at every juncture of my life After 20 weeks with my efforts and help of my teachers, colleagues, I have completed my thesis with the subject “MODELING STORM SURGE AND FLOOD MAPPING FOR KIEN THUY AND DO SON DISTRICT, HAI PHONG CITY” I am thankful for my advisors Assoc Prof Dr Tran Thanh Tung and Dr Le Tuan Hai This thesis would never have reached completion without their guidance and assistance Assoc Prof Dr Tran Thanh Tung provided insightful edits and innovative approaches that helped shaped parts of this thesis Finally, Dr Le Tuan Hai provided guidance, especially in Mike model, that ensured the result of calculation was comprehensive and accurate I am forever grateful to the Faculty of Marine and Coastal Engineering and Thuy loi University gave me a meaning course I had a lot of knowledge and reality experiences in 02 years study I would like to thank Dr Tang Xuan Tho who helps me collect data and guide me in a field trip to study area Last but not least, I am thankful to my friends and colleagues for their support, encourage and advices I hope you will enjoy reading this thesis ii TABLE OF CONTENT INTRODUCTION 1 Necessity of research .1 Research objects and Scope 3 Research content .3 Approach and methodology CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEWS OF STUDY OF STORM SURGE 1.1 Overview of study in the world 1.2 Overview of study in Viet Nam and Hai Phong .7 1.3 Overview of research methodology and tools 10 1.4.1 Geographical location, administrative boundaries 12 1.4.2 Topographic characteristics 15 1.4.3 Geological and soil characteristics .16 1.4.4 Meteorology and climate characteristics 17 1.4.4.1 Thermal mode 17 1.4.4.2 Relative Humidity 17 1.4.4.3 Piche Evaporation .18 1.4.4.4 Wind 18 1.4.4.5 Storm and tropical depression 19 1.4.5 Economical and social characteristics 20 CHAPTER 2: SETUP NUMERICAL MODEL TO SIMULATE STORM SURGE FOR STUDY AREA .22 2.1 Data collection and Analysis 22 2.1.1 Topographical data 22 2.1.2 Hydrodynamic data 23 2.1.3 2.2 Storm data 24 Introduction of Mike Model .31 2.2.1 General 31 2.2.2 Theory of Mike 21 model 32 2.2.3 Theoretical basis of MIKE 21 Toolbox to calculate tide 33 iii 2.2.4 Theoretical basis of MIKE 21 Toolbox to calculate atmospheric field and wind forcing 35 2.3 Setup Model 36 2.3.1 Domain 36 2.3.2 Mesh 38 2.3.3 Bathymetry data 39 2.3.4 Boundary 40 2.3.5 Setting parameters of big model 41 2.4 Calibration and verification of simulation model 43 2.4.2 Verification of storm surge model 45 CHAPTER 3: SIMULATING STORM SURGE 50 3.1 Develop scenarios 50 3.4 Develop calculated station 54 3.5 Result of storm surge simulation 56 3.5.1 Scenario 56 3.5.2 Scenario 57 3.5.3 Scenario 61 3.6 Analysis results of simulation model 64 CHAPTER 4: FLOODING SIMULATION AND DEVELOP FLOOD MAPPING DUE TO STORM SURGE OF KIEN THUY AND DO SON DISTRICT 65 4.1 Setup flood model 65 4.1.1 Domain and mesh 65 4.1.2 Bathymetry data 66 4.1.3 Input boundaries 67 4.1.4 Infrastructure data 69 4.1.5 Setup parameters of flood model 70 4.2 Results of flood model 71 4.3 Building flood mapping 73 4.3.1 Appying GIS software to build flood mapping 73 4.3.2 Input data 74 4.3.2.1 Flood depth 74 4.3.2.2 Administrative map 77 iv 4.4 Results of flood mapping 78 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION .82 REFERENCES 85 APPENDIX 89 v LIST OF FIGURES Fig 1.1 Administrative map of Hai Phong city 13 Fig 1.2 Sea dikes is protecting populated areas 15 Fig 1.3 Do Son beach 21 Fig 1.4 Exploiting seafood 21 Fig Hai Phong city map scale 1:50000 22 Fig 2.2 Digital elevation model DEM (30x30m) of study area 23 Fig 2.3 Distribution of storm’s direction landfall in Hai Phong coast 30 Fig Module Mike 21FM of Mike Zero 32 Fig 2.5 Domain of big model cover small model 37 Fig 2.6 Domain of small model 37 Fig 2.7 Mesh of big model 38 Fig 2.8 Mesh of small model 39 Fig 2.9 Bathymetry of big model 39 Fig 2.10 Bathymetry of small model 40 Fig 2.11 Boundary conditions of big model (03 water boundaries, 01 land boundary) 40 Fig 2.12 Water boundary in North East – Code of big model 41 Fig 2.13 Comparision of water level in calibration of tidal model 43 Fig 2.14 Comparision of water level in verification of tidal model 44 Fig 2.15 Tracking of the typhoon Kalmaegi on 09/2014 46 Fig 2.16 Wind forcing data of storm surge model 48 Fig 2.17 Comparision of water level in verification of storm surge model 48 Fig 3.1 Track of the typhoon Sarah in 1977 51 Fig 3.2 Setup storm surge model (big model) of scenario 53 Fig 3.3 Wind forcing of scenario 54 Fig 3.4 Location map of calculated stations 55 Fig 3.5 Water level map of scenario 56 Fig 3.6 Comparison of total water level of scenario 56 Fig 3.7 Water level of tidal model 57 Fig 3.8 Wind forcing data of storm surge model in scenario 59 Fig 3.9 Water level map of scenario 60 Fig 3.10 Comparision of total water level (storm surge + tide) of scenario 60 Fig 3.11 Wind forcing data of storm surge model in scenario 62 Fig 3.12 Water level map of scenario 63 Fig 3.13 Comparison of total water level (storm surge + tide) of scenario 63 Fig 3.14 Compare highest water level of storm surge model in 03 scenarios 64 Fig 4.1 Domain of flood model (small model) 65 vi Fig 4.2 Mesh Generator in Flood model (small model) 66 Fig 4.3 Bathymetry data of flood model .67 Fig 4.4 Tool for extracting results of big model to boundaries of small model 67 Fig 4.5 Boundaries of flood model 68 Fig 4.6 One of boundaries (code 2) of flood model 68 Fig 4.7 Import characteristic of infrastructure to flood model 69 Fig 4.8 After import infrastructures (sea dike1, sea dike 2, express ways…) 69 Fig 4.9 Result of flood simulation in scenario 71 Fig 4.10 Result of flood simulation in scenario 72 Fig 4.11 Result of flood model in scenario 73 Fig 4.12 Methodology for building flood mapping .74 Fig 4.13 Total water depth of flood model 75 Fig 4.14 After eliminate unsubmerged area of study area 75 Fig 4.15 Classification of flood depth 76 Fig 4.16 Administrative map of study area 77 Fig 4.17 Flood mapping of study area in scenario .78 Fig 4.18 Flood mapping of study area in scenario .79 Fig 4.19 Flood mapping of study area in scenario .80 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Typical monthly and annual average temperature (unit oC) 17 Table 1.2 Typical monthly and annual average relative humidity (Unit: %) 17 Table Typical monthly and annual average evaporation (Unit: %) 18 Table Average monthly and annual wind speed 19 Table 2.1 List of typhoons affected to Hai Phong coast from 1952 to 2015 24 Table 2 Details of some strong typhoon landfall on Hai Phong coast 26 Table 2.3 Tidal components 33 Table 2.4 Parameters of big model 41 Table 2.5 Track of the typhoon Kalmaegi 45 Table 2.6 Parameters of the typhoon Kalmaegi 47 Table 2.7 Result of calculation of the Nash Sutcliffe index 49 Table 3.1 Classification of flooding zone of Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment 50 Table 3.2 Scenarios of storm surge simulation 50 Table 3.3 Tracking information of the typhoon Sarah 51 Table 3.4 Parameters of the typhoon Sarah 52 Table 3.5 Location of 06 calculated stations 55 Table 3.6 Highest water level of 06 stations in scenario 57 Table 3.7 Higher high water of tide 58 Table 3.8 Parameters of the supposal typhoon in scenario 58 Table 3.9 Result of storm surge model of scenario 61 Table 3.10 Parameters of the supposal typhoon in scenario 61 Table 3.11 Result of storm surge model of scenario 64 Table 4.1 Parameters of flood 70 Table 4.2 Flood depth is presented by color 76 Table 4.3 Statistics of flooded area in scenario 81 Table 4.4 Statistics of flooded area in scenario 81 Table 4.5 Statistics of flooded area in scenario 81 viii WATER LEVEL (m) OF STORM SURGE MODEL VERIFICATION Time Calculated data Measured data 9/10/2014 18:00 9/10/2014 19:00 9/10/2014 20:00 9/10/2014 21:00 9/10/2014 22:00 9/10/2014 23:00 9/11/2014 0:00 9/11/2014 1:00 9/11/2014 2:00 9/11/2014 3:00 9/11/2014 4:00 9/11/2014 5:00 9/11/2014 6:00 9/11/2014 7:00 9/11/2014 8:00 9/11/2014 9:00 9/11/2014 10:00 9/11/2014 11:00 9/11/2014 12:00 9/11/2014 13:00 9/11/2014 14:00 9/11/2014 15:00 9/11/2014 16:00 9/11/2014 17:00 9/11/2014 18:00 9/11/2014 19:00 9/11/2014 20:00 9/11/2014 21:00 9/11/2014 22:00 9/11/2014 23:00 9/12/2014 0:00 9/12/2014 1:00 9/12/2014 2:00 9/12/2014 3:00 9/12/2014 4:00 9/12/2014 5:00 9/12/2014 6:00 9/12/2014 7:00 9/12/2014 8:00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.46 -0.12 -0.66 -0.93 -0.63 -0.69 -0.45 -0.42 -0.58 -0.38 -0.03 0.28 0.29 0.24 0.18 0.11 0.12 0.34 0.31 0.26 0.28 0.36 0.42 0.50 0.44 0.19 -0.02 -0.17 -0.34 -0.42 -0.42 -0.48 -0.48 -0.37 -0.23 -0.11 0.37 0.28 0.22 0.13 -0.01 -0.17 -0.32 -0.41 -0.45 -0.41 -0.30 -0.16 -0.05 0.05 0.17 0.28 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.42 0.49 0.57 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.54 0.48 0.34 0.19 0.06 -0.04 -0.13 -0.16 -0.14 -0.12 -0.13 -0.13 99 0.14 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.01 0.24 0.37 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.17 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.13 0.13 0.16 0.14 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.22 0.31 0.35 0.31 0.20 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.18 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.08 WATER LEVEL (m) OF STORM SURGE MODEL VERIFICATION Time Calculated data Measured data 9/12/2014 9:00 9/12/2014 10:00 9/12/2014 11:00 9/12/2014 12:00 9/12/2014 13:00 9/12/2014 14:00 9/12/2014 15:00 9/12/2014 16:00 9/12/2014 17:00 9/12/2014 18:00 9/12/2014 19:00 9/12/2014 20:00 9/12/2014 21:00 9/12/2014 22:00 9/12/2014 23:00 9/13/2014 0:00 9/13/2014 1:00 9/13/2014 2:00 9/13/2014 3:00 9/13/2014 4:00 9/13/2014 5:00 9/13/2014 6:00 9/13/2014 7:00 9/13/2014 8:00 9/13/2014 9:00 9/13/2014 10:00 9/13/2014 11:00 9/13/2014 12:00 9/13/2014 13:00 9/13/2014 14:00 9/13/2014 15:00 9/13/2014 16:00 9/13/2014 17:00 9/13/2014 18:00 9/13/2014 19:00 9/13/2014 20:00 9/13/2014 21:00 9/13/2014 22:00 9/13/2014 23:00 -0.04 -0.06 -0.11 -0.13 -0.12 -0.08 -0.01 0.08 0.18 0.30 0.46 0.58 0.61 0.53 0.39 0.25 0.10 -0.03 -0.12 -0.21 -0.29 -0.33 -0.31 -0.27 -0.24 -0.26 -0.33 -0.40 -0.42 -0.41 -0.33 -0.21 -0.06 0.11 0.30 0.49 0.62 0.68 0.66 -0.10 -0.07 -0.08 -0.10 -0.09 -0.03 0.06 0.21 0.39 0.56 0.67 0.73 0.79 0.82 0.78 0.67 0.56 0.45 0.33 0.20 0.10 0.02 -0.08 -0.20 -0.30 -0.35 -0.40 -0.47 -0.51 -0.48 -0.38 -0.22 0.02 0.28 0.52 0.70 0.84 0.96 1.02 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.18 0.21 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.17 0.28 0.34 0.42 0.46 0.40 0.28 0.17 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.38 0.43 0.39 0.28 0.13 0.02 0.02 0.14 0.31 0.48 0.66 0.77 WATER LEVEL (m) OF STORM SURGE MODEL VERIFICATION Time Calculated data Measured data 9/14/2014 0:00 9/14/2014 1:00 9/14/2014 2:00 9/14/2014 3:00 9/14/2014 4:00 9/14/2014 5:00 9/14/2014 6:00 9/14/2014 7:00 9/14/2014 8:00 9/14/2014 9:00 9/14/2014 10:00 9/14/2014 11:00 9/14/2014 12:00 9/14/2014 13:00 9/14/2014 14:00 9/14/2014 15:00 9/14/2014 16:00 9/14/2014 17:00 9/14/2014 18:00 9/14/2014 19:00 9/14/2014 20:00 9/14/2014 21:00 9/14/2014 22:00 9/14/2014 23:00 9/15/2014 0:00 9/15/2014 1:00 9/15/2014 2:00 9/15/2014 3:00 9/15/2014 4:00 9/15/2014 5:00 9/15/2014 6:00 9/15/2014 7:00 9/15/2014 8:00 9/15/2014 9:00 9/15/2014 10:00 9/15/2014 11:00 9/15/2014 12:00 9/15/2014 13:00 9/15/2014 14:00 0.60 0.49 0.36 0.23 0.13 0.02 -0.09 -0.20 -0.27 -0.32 -0.39 -0.47 -0.57 -0.64 -0.66 -0.63 -0.54 -0.38 -0.17 0.05 0.26 0.45 0.61 0.71 0.77 0.76 0.68 0.57 0.45 0.34 0.22 0.07 -0.09 -0.24 -0.38 -0.51 -0.64 -0.75 -0.82 1.01 0.96 0.90 0.80 0.65 0.49 0.33 0.16 -0.04 -0.25 -0.41 -0.54 -0.67 -0.79 -0.83 -0.78 -0.65 -0.43 -0.14 0.18 0.46 0.69 0.88 1.03 1.13 1.18 1.18 1.15 1.06 0.91 0.72 0.51 0.26 -0.01 -0.27 -0.48 -0.67 -0.86 -0.99 101 0.17 0.22 0.29 0.32 0.28 0.22 0.18 0.13 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.25 0.34 0.37 0.33 0.25 0.19 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.75 0.66 0.57 0.43 0.25 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.31 0.47 0.66 0.87 0.95 0.86 0.63 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.10 0.30 0.54 0.78 0.97 1.07 1.07 1.01 0.84 0.59 0.33 0.13 0.01 0.02 0.17 0.39 0.66 1.01 1.29 WATER LEVEL (m) OF STORM SURGE MODEL VERIFICATION Time Calculated data Measured data 9/15/2014 15:00 9/15/2014 16:00 9/15/2014 17:00 9/15/2014 18:00 9/15/2014 19:00 9/15/2014 20:00 9/15/2014 21:00 9/15/2014 22:00 9/15/2014 23:00 9/16/2014 0:00 9/16/2014 1:00 9/16/2014 2:00 9/16/2014 3:00 9/16/2014 4:00 9/16/2014 5:00 9/16/2014 6:00 9/16/2014 7:00 9/16/2014 8:00 9/16/2014 9:00 9/16/2014 10:00 9/16/2014 11:00 9/16/2014 12:00 9/16/2014 13:00 9/16/2014 14:00 9/16/2014 15:00 9/16/2014 16:00 9/16/2014 17:00 9/16/2014 18:00 9/16/2014 19:00 9/16/2014 20:00 9/16/2014 21:00 9/16/2014 22:00 9/16/2014 23:00 9/17/2014 0:00 Nash–Sutcliffe index -0.83 -0.79 -0.68 -0.50 -0.28 -0.04 0.20 0.41 0.59 0.74 0.84 0.87 0.84 0.75 0.64 0.51 0.35 0.15 -0.06 -0.27 -0.46 -0.64 -0.79 -0.91 -0.98 -1.00 -1.00 -0.97 -0.87 -0.66 -0.35 0.05 0.44 0.70 -1.03 -0.97 -0.81 -0.57 -0.26 0.07 0.38 0.64 0.85 1.03 1.18 1.27 1.32 1.31 1.22 1.06 0.85 0.60 0.31 0.01 -0.27 -0.52 -0.75 -0.95 -1.07 -1.11 -1.04 -0.89 -0.65 -0.34 -0.01 0.29 0.56 0.79 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.23 0.31 0.34 0.31 0.25 0.20 0.13 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.11 0.11 0.06 0.01 0.01 80% 102 1.38 1.24 0.91 0.51 0.16 0.01 0.06 0.24 0.50 0.78 1.07 1.27 1.38 1.36 1.16 0.84 0.50 0.21 0.03 0.02 0.17 0.44 0.80 1.20 1.48 1.58 1.40 1.07 0.63 0.24 0.02 0.02 0.17 0.42 Appendix of Chapter WATER LEVEL (m) OF 06 STATIONS IN SCENARIO Time\ Station P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 7/16/77 12:00 PM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7/16/77 1:00 PM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7/16/77 2:00 PM 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.18 0.06 7/16/77 3:00 PM 0.90 0.90 1.48 2.06 1.97 7/16/77 4:00 PM 1.94 1.87 1.19 0.62 0.61 7/16/77 5:00 PM 0.67 0.65 0.06 -1.70 -1.70 7/16/77 6:00 PM -0.04 -0.05 -0.69 -1.31 -1.30 7/16/77 7:00 PM -0.49 -0.50 -0.96 -0.77 -0.76 7/16/77 8:00 PM -0.70 -0.70 -0.72 -0.82 -0.81 7/16/77 9:00 PM -0.84 -0.84 -0.86 -0.75 -0.76 7/16/77 10:00 PM -0.74 -0.75 -0.67 -0.60 -0.58 7/16/77 11:00 PM -0.75 -0.76 -1.17 -1.91 -1.91 7/17/77 12:00 AM -1.00 -1.00 -1.55 -2.12 -2.12 7/17/77 1:00 AM -1.17 -1.17 -1.41 -0.94 -0.93 7/17/77 2:00 AM -1.19 -1.18 -0.70 -0.55 -0.55 7/17/77 3:00 AM -0.88 -0.87 -0.37 -0.25 -0.25 7/17/77 4:00 AM -0.44 -0.43 -0.10 0.08 0.08 7/17/77 5:00 AM 0.03 0.04 0.19 0.22 0.22 7/17/77 6:00 AM 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.18 0.18 7/17/77 7:00 AM 0.46 0.46 0.70 0.97 0.97 7/17/77 8:00 AM 1.21 1.21 1.40 1.51 1.51 7/17/77 9:00 AM 1.70 1.69 1.62 1.49 1.49 7/17/77 10:00 AM 1.45 1.45 1.43 1.38 1.38 7/17/77 11:00 AM 1.17 1.18 1.21 1.20 1.20 7/17/77 12:00 PM 1.08 1.08 1.03 0.91 0.90 7/17/77 1:00 PM 0.82 0.82 0.87 0.87 0.87 7/17/77 2:00 PM 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.87 7/17/77 3:00 PM 0.80 0.80 0.71 0.56 0.56 7/17/77 4:00 PM 0.40 0.40 0.25 0.13 0.13 7/17/77 5:00 PM 0.02 0.02 -0.13 -0.24 -0.24 7/17/77 6:00 PM -0.28 -0.28 -0.43 -0.50 -0.50 7/17/77 7:00 PM -0.52 -0.52 -0.68 -0.76 -0.76 7/17/77 8:00 PM -0.72 -0.72 -0.85 -0.87 -0.87 7/17/77 9:00 PM -0.88 -0.88 -0.99 -1.02 -1.02 7/17/77 10:00 PM -1.01 -1.01 -1.17 -1.25 -1.25 7/17/77 11:00 PM -1.13 -1.13 -1.32 -1.36 -1.36 7/18/77 12:00 AM -1.24 -1.24 -1.35 -1.33 -1.33 7/18/77 1:00 AM -1.31 -1.30 -1.24 -1.21 -1.21 7/18/77 2:00 AM -1.28 -1.27 -1.09 -1.01 -1.01 7/18/77 3:00 AM -1.14 -1.13 -0.80 -0.66 -0.66 7/18/77 4:00 AM -0.90 -0.89 -0.47 -0.31 -0.31 103 P6 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.97 0.60 -1.70 -1.31 -0.76 -0.81 -0.76 -0.58 -1.91 -2.12 -0.94 -0.55 -0.26 0.08 0.22 0.18 0.97 1.51 1.49 1.38 1.20 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.56 0.13 -0.24 -0.50 -0.76 -0.87 -1.02 -1.25 -1.36 -1.33 -1.21 -1.00 -0.66 -0.31 WATER LEVEL (m) OF 06 STATIONS IN SCENARIO Time\ Station P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 7/18/77 5:00 AM -0.52 -0.51 -0.12 0.05 0.05 7/18/77 6:00 AM -0.03 -0.02 0.27 0.43 0.43 7/18/77 7:00 AM 0.52 0.52 0.68 0.79 0.79 7/18/77 8:00 AM 0.99 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.06 7/18/77 9:00 AM 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.25 1.25 7/18/77 10:00 AM 1.36 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.34 7/18/77 11:00 AM 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.28 1.28 7/18/77 12:00 PM 1.21 1.21 1.22 1.15 1.15 7/18/77 1:00 PM 1.05 1.06 1.06 0.99 0.98 7/18/77 2:00 PM 0.89 0.89 0.87 0.80 0.79 7/18/77 3:00 PM 0.67 0.67 0.64 0.57 0.57 7/18/77 4:00 PM 0.42 0.42 0.37 0.30 0.30 7/18/77 5:00 PM 0.16 0.16 0.09 0.02 0.02 7/18/77 6:00 PM -0.10 -0.10 -0.19 -0.25 -0.25 7/18/77 7:00 PM -0.34 -0.34 -0.44 -0.50 -0.50 7/18/77 8:00 PM -0.55 -0.55 -0.67 -0.73 -0.73 7/18/77 9:00 PM -0.74 -0.74 -0.87 -0.94 -0.94 7/18/77 10:00 PM -0.90 -0.90 -1.05 -1.11 -1.11 7/18/77 11:00 PM -1.04 -1.03 -1.19 -1.23 -1.23 7/19/77 12:00 AM -1.15 -1.15 -1.26 -1.27 -1.27 7/19/77 1:00 AM -1.24 -1.24 -1.24 -1.23 -1.23 7/19/77 2:00 AM -1.26 -1.26 -1.14 -1.09 -1.09 7/19/77 3:00 AM -1.17 -1.16 -0.94 -0.85 -0.85 7/19/77 4:00 AM -1.00 -0.99 -0.66 -0.52 -0.52 7/19/77 5:00 AM -0.71 -0.70 -0.31 -0.15 -0.15 7/19/77 6:00 AM -0.29 -0.28 0.06 0.22 0.22 7/19/77 7:00 AM 0.21 0.22 0.43 0.55 0.55 7/19/77 8:00 AM 0.69 0.69 0.78 0.84 0.83 7/19/77 9:00 AM 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.05 7/19/77 10:00 AM 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.19 1.19 7/19/77 11:00 AM 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.22 1.21 7/19/77 12:00 PM 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.14 1.13 7/19/77 1:00 PM 1.04 1.05 1.05 0.98 0.97 7/19/77 2:00 PM 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.79 0.78 7/19/77 3:00 PM 0.65 0.66 0.65 0.59 0.59 7/19/77 4:00 PM 0.45 0.45 0.43 0.38 0.38 7/19/77 5:00 PM 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.14 0.14 7/19/77 6:00 PM -0.03 -0.02 -0.06 -0.11 -0.11 7/19/77 7:00 PM -0.26 -0.25 -0.30 -0.34 -0.34 7/19/77 8:00 PM -0.47 -0.46 -0.53 -0.57 -0.57 7/19/77 9:00 PM -0.67 -0.65 -0.74 -0.78 -0.78 7/19/77 10:00 PM -0.84 -0.81 -0.93 -0.98 -0.98 104 P6 0.05 0.43 0.79 1.06 1.25 1.34 1.28 1.15 0.98 0.80 0.57 0.30 0.02 -0.25 -0.50 -0.73 -0.93 -1.11 -1.23 -1.27 -1.23 -1.09 -0.85 -0.52 -0.15 0.22 0.55 0.84 1.05 1.19 1.22 1.13 0.98 0.79 0.59 0.38 0.14 -0.11 -0.34 -0.57 -0.78 -0.98 WATER LEVEL (m) OF 06 STATIONS IN SCENARIO Time\ Station P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 7/19/77 11:00 PM -0.99 -0.96 -1.11 -1.17 -1.18 7/20/77 12:00 AM -1.11 -1.07 -1.27 -1.32 -1.32 7/20/77 1:00 AM -1.20 -1.15 -1.38 -1.39 -1.39 7/20/77 2:00 AM -1.27 -1.20 -1.44 -1.40 -1.41 7/20/77 3:00 AM -1.31 -1.21 -1.51 -1.40 -1.41 7/20/77 4:00 AM -1.34 -1.20 -1.58 -1.37 -1.39 7/20/77 5:00 AM -1.39 -1.20 -1.67 -1.26 -1.29 7/20/77 6:00 AM -1.46 -1.21 -1.64 -0.95 -1.00 7/20/77 7:00 AM -1.68 -1.53 -0.70 -0.13 -0.18 7/20/77 8:00 AM -1.64 -1.42 0.23 0.88 0.88 7/20/77 9:00 AM -0.82 -0.73 1.01 1.51 1.56 7/20/77 10:00 AM 1.89 1.80 1.53 1.60 1.65 7/20/77 11:00 AM 2.08 2.03 1.73 1.47 1.51 7/20/77 12:00 PM 1.61 1.57 1.35 1.26 1.30 7/20/77 1:00 PM 1.32 1.28 1.09 1.03 1.06 7/20/77 2:00 PM 1.16 1.12 0.96 0.92 0.94 7/20/77 3:00 PM 1.10 1.07 0.92 0.87 0.89 7/20/77 4:00 PM 1.02 0.98 0.80 0.74 0.76 7/20/77 5:00 PM 0.83 0.79 0.59 0.53 0.55 7/20/77 6:00 PM 0.57 0.53 0.33 0.27 0.29 7/20/77 7:00 PM 0.30 0.27 0.04 0.01 0.03 7/20/77 8:00 PM 0.06 0.03 -0.17 -0.18 -0.16 7/20/77 9:00 PM -0.11 -0.14 -0.33 -0.30 -0.29 7/20/77 10:00 PM -0.24 -0.28 -0.45 -0.42 -0.41 7/20/77 11:00 PM -0.37 -0.40 -0.59 -0.57 -0.56 7/21/77 12:00 AM -0.50 -0.53 -0.74 -0.74 -0.73 7/21/77 1:00 AM -0.64 -0.67 -0.87 -0.87 -0.86 7/21/77 2:00 AM -0.75 -0.78 -0.95 -0.93 -0.92 7/21/77 3:00 AM -0.82 -0.84 -0.94 -0.88 -0.87 7/21/77 4:00 AM -0.80 -0.82 -0.82 -0.72 -0.71 7/21/77 5:00 AM -0.66 -0.67 -0.61 -0.49 -0.48 7/21/77 6:00 AM -0.43 -0.44 -0.35 -0.23 -0.22 7/21/77 7:00 AM -0.15 -0.16 -0.09 0.05 0.06 7/21/77 8:00 AM 0.16 0.15 0.19 0.30 0.30 7/21/77 9:00 AM 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.52 0.52 7/21/77 10:00 AM 0.66 0.65 0.62 0.68 0.69 7/21/77 11:00 AM 0.79 0.78 0.74 0.78 0.78 7/21/77 12:00 PM 0.84 0.83 0.79 0.80 0.80 105 P6 -1.18 -1.32 -1.39 -1.41 -1.41 -1.39 -1.29 -1.02 -0.22 0.84 1.52 1.62 1.49 1.28 1.04 0.93 0.88 0.75 0.54 0.27 0.01 -0.18 -0.30 -0.42 -0.57 -0.75 -0.88 -0.93 -0.88 -0.73 -0.49 -0.23 0.05 0.29 0.51 0.68 0.77 0.79 WATER LEVEL (m) OF 06 STATIONS IN SCENARIO Time\ Station P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 7/26/1977 10:00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7/26/1977 11:00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7/26/1977 12:00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.01 7/26/1977 13:00 0.29 0.28 0.25 0.36 0.36 7/26/1977 14:00 0.12 0.12 -0.19 -0.64 -0.64 7/26/1977 15:00 -0.31 -0.32 -0.72 -1.15 -1.15 7/26/1977 16:00 -0.65 -0.65 -0.89 -0.89 -0.89 7/26/1977 17:00 -0.85 -0.85 -0.92 -0.84 -0.84 7/26/1977 18:00 -0.88 -0.88 -0.81 -0.80 -0.79 7/26/1977 19:00 -0.84 -0.84 -0.83 -0.88 -0.88 7/26/1977 20:00 -0.85 -0.86 -0.93 -0.92 -0.92 7/26/1977 21:00 -0.93 -0.93 -1.08 -1.21 -1.21 7/26/1977 22:00 -1.06 -1.06 -1.01 -0.87 -0.87 7/26/1977 23:00 -0.98 -0.97 -0.53 -0.30 -0.30 7/27/1977 0:00 -0.58 -0.58 -0.16 0.01 0.01 7/27/1977 1:00 -0.10 -0.10 0.14 0.23 0.22 7/27/1977 2:00 0.32 0.32 0.38 0.46 0.47 7/27/1977 3:00 0.60 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.58 7/27/1977 4:00 0.72 0.72 0.77 0.81 0.81 7/27/1977 5:00 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.15 1.15 7/27/1977 6:00 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.28 1.28 7/27/1977 7:00 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.18 1.18 7/27/1977 8:00 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.98 0.98 7/27/1977 9:00 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.83 0.83 7/27/1977 10:00 0.76 0.76 0.72 0.65 0.64 7/27/1977 11:00 0.55 0.55 0.53 0.49 0.49 7/27/1977 12:00 0.38 0.38 0.33 0.29 0.29 7/27/1977 13:00 0.15 0.14 0.06 -0.02 -0.02 7/27/1977 14:00 -0.12 -0.13 -0.25 -0.34 -0.34 7/27/1977 15:00 -0.38 -0.39 -0.53 -0.60 -0.60 7/27/1977 16:00 -0.60 -0.61 -0.74 -0.79 -0.79 7/27/1977 17:00 -0.78 -0.78 -0.91 -0.96 -0.96 7/27/1977 18:00 -0.93 -0.93 -1.05 -1.08 -1.08 7/27/1977 19:00 -1.05 -1.05 -1.15 -1.17 -1.17 7/27/1977 20:00 -1.15 -1.15 -1.22 -1.23 -1.23 7/27/1977 21:00 -1.22 -1.22 -1.23 -1.21 -1.21 7/27/1977 22:00 -1.24 -1.24 -1.13 -1.08 -1.08 7/27/1977 23:00 -1.14 -1.14 -0.93 -0.84 -0.84 7/28/1977 0:00 -0.97 -0.96 -0.66 -0.53 -0.53 7/28/1977 1:00 -0.69 -0.68 -0.33 -0.16 -0.17 7/28/1977 2:00 -0.29 -0.28 0.03 0.19 0.19 106 P6 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.36 -0.64 -1.15 -0.89 -0.84 -0.79 -0.88 -0.92 -1.21 -0.87 -0.30 0.01 0.23 0.47 0.58 0.81 1.15 1.28 1.18 0.98 0.83 0.64 0.49 0.29 -0.02 -0.34 -0.60 -0.79 -0.96 -1.08 -1.17 -1.23 -1.21 -1.08 -0.84 -0.53 -0.17 0.19 WATER LEVEL (m) OF 06 STATIONS IN SCENARIO Time\ Station P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 7/28/1977 3:00 0.20 0.21 0.41 0.54 0.54 7/28/1977 4:00 0.69 0.69 0.79 0.87 0.87 7/28/1977 5:00 1.09 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.15 7/28/1977 6:00 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.34 7/28/1977 7:00 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.42 1.41 7/28/1977 8:00 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.36 1.36 7/28/1977 9:00 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.20 1.20 7/28/1977 10:00 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.01 1.01 7/28/1977 11:00 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.80 0.80 7/28/1977 12:00 0.67 0.67 0.62 0.55 0.55 7/28/1977 13:00 0.39 0.39 0.32 0.24 0.23 7/28/1977 14:00 0.10 0.10 0.00 -0.09 -0.09 7/28/1977 15:00 -0.18 -0.18 -0.31 -0.40 -0.40 7/28/1977 16:00 -0.44 -0.44 -0.59 -0.68 -0.68 7/28/1977 17:00 -0.66 -0.66 -0.83 -0.92 -0.92 7/28/1977 18:00 -0.85 -0.85 -1.03 -1.11 -1.11 7/28/1977 19:00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.20 -1.27 -1.27 7/28/1977 20:00 -1.14 -1.13 -1.33 -1.37 -1.37 7/28/1977 21:00 -1.24 -1.24 -1.40 -1.41 -1.41 7/28/1977 22:00 -1.33 -1.32 -1.37 -1.36 -1.36 7/28/1977 23:00 -1.38 -1.37 -1.26 -1.22 -1.22 7/29/1977 0:00 -1.32 -1.32 -1.06 -0.95 -0.95 7/29/1977 1:00 -1.17 -1.16 -0.74 -0.57 -0.57 7/29/1977 2:00 -0.89 -0.88 -0.36 -0.16 -0.16 7/29/1977 3:00 -0.43 -0.41 0.05 0.25 0.25 7/29/1977 4:00 0.17 0.18 0.48 0.65 0.64 7/29/1977 5:00 0.77 0.78 0.90 1.00 0.99 7/29/1977 6:00 1.24 1.24 1.28 1.30 1.30 7/29/1977 7:00 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.51 1.51 7/29/1977 8:00 1.60 1.61 1.62 1.58 1.57 7/29/1977 9:00 1.54 1.55 1.56 1.49 1.49 7/29/1977 10:00 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.30 1.30 7/29/1977 11:00 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.07 1.07 7/29/1977 12:00 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.82 0.82 7/29/1977 13:00 0.64 0.64 0.61 0.53 0.53 7/29/1977 14:00 0.34 0.34 0.28 0.19 0.19 7/29/1977 15:00 0.03 0.03 -0.06 -0.16 -0.16 7/29/1977 16:00 -0.27 -0.26 -0.39 -0.49 -0.49 7/29/1977 17:00 -0.53 -0.52 -0.68 -0.79 -0.79 7/29/1977 18:00 -0.75 -0.74 -0.94 -1.05 -1.05 7/29/1977 19:00 -0.94 -0.92 -1.16 -1.27 -1.27 107 P6 0.54 0.87 1.15 1.34 1.42 1.36 1.20 1.01 0.80 0.55 0.24 -0.09 -0.39 -0.67 -0.91 -1.11 -1.26 -1.37 -1.40 -1.36 -1.22 -0.95 -0.57 -0.16 0.26 0.65 1.00 1.30 1.51 1.57 1.49 1.30 1.07 0.82 0.53 0.19 -0.16 -0.49 -0.79 -1.04 -1.27 WATER LEVEL (m) OF 06 STATIONS IN SCENARIO Time\ Station P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 7/29/1977 20:00 -1.09 -1.06 -1.35 -1.46 -1.46 7/29/1977 21:00 -1.21 -1.17 -1.51 -1.61 -1.62 7/29/1977 22:00 -1.29 -1.25 -1.63 -1.70 -1.71 7/29/1977 23:00 -1.36 -1.30 -1.70 -1.69 -1.70 7/30/1977 0:00 -1.40 -1.32 -1.71 -1.60 -1.60 7/30/1977 1:00 -1.42 -1.31 -1.67 -1.47 -1.48 7/30/1977 2:00 -1.43 -1.28 -1.65 -1.32 -1.33 7/30/1977 3:00 -1.46 -1.23 -1.73 -1.16 -1.19 7/30/1977 4:00 -1.52 -1.20 -1.76 -0.83 -0.89 7/30/1977 5:00 -1.78 -1.61 -0.44 0.14 0.09 7/30/1977 6:00 -1.50 -1.21 0.60 1.29 1.28 7/30/1977 7:00 -0.23 -0.20 1.55 2.09 2.14 7/30/1977 8:00 2.89 2.80 2.37 2.24 2.29 7/30/1977 9:00 2.66 2.61 2.34 2.09 2.14 7/30/1977 10:00 2.02 1.99 1.81 1.72 1.76 7/30/1977 11:00 1.71 1.68 1.48 1.37 1.40 7/30/1977 12:00 1.42 1.39 1.24 1.18 1.21 7/30/1977 13:00 1.31 1.28 1.13 1.06 1.09 7/30/1977 14:00 1.16 1.12 0.95 0.86 0.88 7/30/1977 15:00 0.89 0.85 0.62 0.52 0.54 7/30/1977 16:00 0.50 0.46 0.19 0.05 0.07 7/30/1977 17:00 0.11 0.07 -0.25 -0.36 -0.34 7/30/1977 18:00 -0.22 -0.26 -0.56 -0.62 -0.60 7/30/1977 19:00 -0.46 -0.49 -0.77 -0.77 -0.76 7/30/1977 20:00 -0.63 -0.67 -0.94 -0.92 -0.90 7/30/1977 21:00 -0.77 -0.81 -1.10 -1.10 -1.08 7/30/1977 22:00 -0.91 -0.95 -1.28 -1.31 -1.29 7/30/1977 23:00 -1.05 -1.08 -1.44 -1.45 -1.44 7/31/1977 0:00 -1.16 -1.20 -1.51 -1.44 -1.43 7/31/1977 1:00 -1.24 -1.27 -1.41 -1.26 -1.25 7/31/1977 2:00 -1.23 -1.25 -1.15 -0.95 -0.94 7/31/1977 3:00 -1.05 -1.06 -0.78 -0.55 -0.54 7/31/1977 4:00 -0.70 -0.71 -0.36 -0.13 -0.12 7/31/1977 5:00 -0.22 -0.23 0.05 0.30 0.30 7/31/1977 6:00 0.35 0.34 0.50 0.69 0.69 7/31/1977 7:00 0.91 0.90 0.94 1.06 1.06 7/31/1977 8:00 1.33 1.32 1.30 1.34 1.35 7/31/1977 9:00 1.55 1.54 1.50 1.50 1.50 7/31/1977 10:00 1.57 1.57 1.54 1.51 1.51 108 P6 -1.46 -1.61 -1.70 -1.69 -1.60 -1.48 -1.34 -1.20 -0.92 0.05 1.24 2.10 2.26 2.12 1.74 1.38 1.19 1.07 0.86 0.53 0.06 -0.36 -0.62 -0.77 -0.92 -1.10 -1.31 -1.45 -1.45 -1.27 -0.95 -0.55 -0.13 0.29 0.69 1.06 1.34 1.50 1.51 WATER LEVEL (m) OF 06 STATIONS IN SCENARIO Time\ Station P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 0.00 0.00 7/26/1977 10:00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7/26/1977 11:00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 7/26/1977 12:00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.34 0.35 7/26/1977 13:00 0.18 0.18 0.24 -0.52 -0.53 7/26/1977 14:00 0.14 0.13 -0.13 -1.00 -1.00 7/26/1977 15:00 -0.15 -0.16 -0.52 -0.84 -0.84 7/26/1977 16:00 -0.40 -0.41 -0.76 -0.84 -0.84 7/26/1977 17:00 -0.60 -0.60 -0.82 -0.84 -0.84 7/26/1977 18:00 -0.73 -0.73 -0.81 -0.92 -0.93 7/26/1977 19:00 -0.82 -0.82 -0.90 -0.93 -0.93 7/26/1977 20:00 -0.88 -0.88 -0.91 -1.07 -1.07 7/26/1977 21:00 -0.93 -0.93 -1.01 -0.80 -0.80 7/26/1977 22:00 -0.99 -0.98 -0.90 -0.38 -0.38 7/26/1977 23:00 -0.91 -0.90 -0.60 -0.09 -0.09 7/27/1977 0:00 -0.73 -0.71 -0.29 0.17 0.17 7/27/1977 1:00 -0.45 -0.43 -0.02 0.42 0.42 7/27/1977 2:00 -0.10 -0.09 0.24 0.63 0.63 7/27/1977 3:00 0.26 0.27 0.49 0.88 0.87 7/27/1977 4:00 0.61 0.61 0.76 1.13 1.13 7/27/1977 5:00 0.95 0.95 1.05 1.25 1.24 7/27/1977 6:00 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.19 1.19 7/27/1977 7:00 1.30 1.30 1.27 1.05 1.05 7/27/1977 8:00 1.13 1.13 1.10 0.89 0.89 7/27/1977 9:00 0.96 0.96 0.94 0.71 0.71 7/27/1977 10:00 0.82 0.82 0.78 0.51 0.51 7/27/1977 11:00 0.64 0.64 0.59 0.26 0.26 7/27/1977 12:00 0.45 0.45 0.36 -0.03 -0.03 7/27/1977 13:00 0.23 0.23 0.10 -0.34 -0.34 7/27/1977 14:00 0.01 0.00 -0.17 -0.62 -0.62 7/27/1977 15:00 -0.21 -0.21 -0.43 -0.84 -0.84 7/27/1977 16:00 -0.41 -0.41 -0.66 -0.99 -0.99 7/27/1977 17:00 -0.59 -0.59 -0.85 -1.08 -1.08 7/27/1977 18:00 -0.74 -0.74 -0.98 -1.14 -1.14 7/27/1977 19:00 -0.87 -0.87 -1.08 -1.21 -1.21 7/27/1977 20:00 -0.97 -0.97 -1.15 -1.23 -1.23 7/27/1977 21:00 -1.06 -1.06 -1.21 -1.13 -1.13 7/27/1977 22:00 -1.13 -1.13 -1.16 -0.89 -0.89 7/27/1977 23:00 -1.15 -1.14 -1.00 -0.55 -0.55 7/28/1977 0:00 -1.06 -1.05 -0.75 -0.19 -0.19 7/28/1977 1:00 -0.91 -0.90 -0.43 0.16 0.16 7/28/1977 2:00 -0.66 -0.64 -0.09 0.49 0.49 7/28/1977 3:00 -0.30 -0.28 0.25 0.82 0.82 7/28/1977 4:00 0.15 0.17 0.59 109 P6 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.35 -0.53 -1.00 -0.84 -0.84 -0.84 -0.93 -0.93 -1.07 -0.80 -0.38 -0.09 0.17 0.42 0.63 0.87 1.13 1.24 1.19 1.05 0.89 0.71 0.51 0.26 -0.03 -0.34 -0.62 -0.84 -0.99 -1.08 -1.14 -1.21 -1.23 -1.13 -0.89 -0.55 -0.20 0.16 0.49 0.82 WATER LEVEL (m) OF 06 STATIONS IN SCENARIO Time\ Station P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 1.13 1.13 7/28/1977 5:00 0.66 0.67 0.95 1.36 1.36 7/28/1977 6:00 1.14 1.14 1.28 1.47 1.46 7/28/1977 7:00 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.42 1.41 7/28/1977 8:00 1.51 1.51 1.50 1.25 1.24 7/28/1977 9:00 1.32 1.33 1.31 1.05 1.05 7/28/1977 10:00 1.14 1.14 1.13 0.84 0.84 7/28/1977 11:00 0.96 0.96 0.93 0.58 0.58 7/28/1977 12:00 0.75 0.75 0.69 0.27 0.27 7/28/1977 13:00 0.51 0.51 0.41 -0.08 -0.08 7/28/1977 14:00 0.26 0.26 0.10 -0.43 -0.43 7/28/1977 15:00 0.01 0.01 -0.20 -0.75 -0.75 7/28/1977 16:00 -0.23 -0.23 -0.49 -1.00 -1.00 7/28/1977 17:00 -0.44 -0.44 -0.74 -1.16 -1.16 7/28/1977 18:00 -0.63 -0.63 -0.95 -1.26 -1.26 7/28/1977 19:00 -0.79 -0.78 -1.10 -1.34 -1.34 7/28/1977 20:00 -0.92 -0.91 -1.21 -1.42 -1.42 7/28/1977 21:00 -1.03 -1.02 -1.30 -1.43 -1.43 7/28/1977 22:00 -1.12 -1.11 -1.37 -1.30 -1.30 7/28/1977 23:00 -1.21 -1.20 -1.33 -0.99 -0.99 7/29/1977 0:00 -1.26 -1.25 -1.11 -0.59 -0.59 7/29/1977 1:00 -1.22 -1.20 -0.83 -0.20 -0.20 7/29/1977 2:00 -1.09 -1.07 -0.47 0.19 0.19 7/29/1977 3:00 -0.85 -0.82 -0.10 0.57 0.57 7/29/1977 4:00 -0.46 -0.43 0.28 0.93 0.93 7/29/1977 5:00 0.06 0.09 0.66 1.28 1.28 7/29/1977 6:00 0.65 0.68 1.05 1.52 1.52 7/29/1977 7:00 1.23 1.24 1.42 1.60 1.60 7/29/1977 8:00 1.61 1.61 1.63 1.50 1.50 7/29/1977 9:00 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.30 1.30 7/29/1977 10:00 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.07 1.07 7/29/1977 11:00 1.15 1.16 1.16 0.80 0.80 7/29/1977 12:00 0.93 0.94 0.91 0.47 0.47 7/29/1977 13:00 0.66 0.68 0.61 0.09 0.09 7/29/1977 14:00 0.39 0.40 0.29 -0.31 -0.32 7/29/1977 15:00 0.11 0.13 -0.05 -0.70 -0.71 7/29/1977 16:00 -0.16 -0.13 -0.38 -1.05 -1.06 7/29/1977 17:00 -0.39 -0.36 -0.68 -1.33 -1.34 7/29/1977 18:00 -0.58 -0.54 -0.93 -1.56 -1.57 7/29/1977 19:00 -0.74 -0.69 -1.14 -1.79 -1.81 7/29/1977 20:00 -0.86 -0.80 -1.31 -2.11 -2.12 7/29/1977 21:00 -0.96 -0.87 -1.45 -2.20 -2.21 7/29/1977 22:00 -1.03 -0.92 -1.57 -2.19 -2.20 7/29/1977 23:00 -1.08 -0.94 -1.67 110 P6 1.13 1.36 1.46 1.42 1.25 1.05 0.84 0.58 0.27 -0.08 -0.43 -0.75 -1.00 -1.15 -1.26 -1.34 -1.42 -1.43 -1.30 -0.99 -0.59 -0.20 0.19 0.57 0.93 1.28 1.52 1.60 1.50 1.30 1.07 0.80 0.47 0.09 -0.32 -0.70 -1.05 -1.34 -1.56 -1.80 -2.11 -2.20 -2.19 WATER LEVEL (m) OF 06 STATIONS IN SCENARIO Time\ Station P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 -2.10 -2.10 7/30/1977 0:00 -1.11 -0.93 -1.74 -1.97 -1.98 7/30/1977 1:00 -1.14 -0.90 -1.80 -1.82 -1.83 7/30/1977 2:00 -1.18 -0.87 -1.87 -1.66 -1.69 7/30/1977 3:00 -1.25 -0.83 -1.87 -1.03 -0.89 7/30/1977 4:00 -1.33 -0.89 -1.90 -0.68 -0.71 7/30/1977 5:00 -1.77 -1.70 -1.80 1.16 1.16 7/30/1977 6:00 -1.91 -1.89 0.08 2.60 2.66 7/30/1977 7:00 -1.77 -1.02 1.53 3.04 3.14 7/30/1977 8:00 0.35 0.59 2.44 2.95 3.03 7/30/1977 9:00 3.52 3.40 2.93 2.66 2.72 7/30/1977 10:00 3.45 3.36 2.97 2.22 2.27 7/30/1977 11:00 2.84 2.77 2.40 1.76 1.81 7/30/1977 12:00 2.39 2.31 1.93 1.47 1.52 7/30/1977 13:00 2.04 1.96 1.59 1.18 1.23 7/30/1977 14:00 1.75 1.67 1.30 0.90 0.94 7/30/1977 15:00 1.47 1.39 1.00 0.57 0.61 7/30/1977 16:00 1.18 1.10 0.68 0.24 0.28 7/30/1977 17:00 0.88 0.80 0.36 -0.04 -0.01 7/30/1977 18:00 0.60 0.52 0.07 -0.30 -0.27 7/30/1977 19:00 0.34 0.26 -0.20 -0.52 -0.49 7/30/1977 20:00 0.11 0.03 -0.44 -0.73 -0.71 7/30/1977 21:00 -0.10 -0.17 -0.66 -0.93 -0.91 7/30/1977 22:00 -0.28 -0.36 -0.86 -1.10 -1.08 7/30/1977 23:00 -0.45 -0.52 -1.04 -1.16 -1.15 7/31/1977 0:00 -0.60 -0.66 -1.16 -1.10 -1.09 7/31/1977 1:00 -0.72 -0.78 -1.19 -0.89 -0.88 7/31/1977 2:00 -0.79 -0.84 -1.10 -0.56 -0.54 7/31/1977 3:00 -0.78 -0.81 -0.85 -0.15 -0.14 7/31/1977 4:00 -0.62 -0.65 -0.49 0.28 0.28 7/31/1977 5:00 -0.36 -0.37 -0.09 0.69 0.70 7/31/1977 6:00 0.05 0.04 0.35 1.08 1.08 7/31/1977 7:00 0.56 0.55 0.78 1.39 1.39 7/31/1977 8:00 1.09 1.08 1.19 1.59 1.60 7/31/1977 9:00 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.65 1.65 7/31/1977 10:00 1.73 1.72 1.66 111 P6 -2.10 -1.98 -1.84 -1.70 -0.92 -0.75 1.13 2.58 3.10 2.99 2.70 2.25 1.79 1.49 1.20 0.91 0.58 0.25 -0.04 -0.29 -0.52 -0.74 -0.94 -1.10 -1.17 -1.11 -0.90 -0.56 -0.16 0.27 0.69 1.07 1.38 1.58 1.64 Appendix of Chapter FLOODED AREA OF SCENARIO Flooded area (ha) District COMMUNE < 0.5 m 0.5 - m Đồ Sơn Kiến Thụy Total 1-2 m 2-3 m 3-5 m >5m 9.17 10.11 5.47 Bàng La 30.21 10.43 12.55 77.95 Ngọc Hải 10.58 2.90 0.35 Ngọc Xuyên 1.27 Vạn Hương 17.06 5.56 20.24 0.01 Đại Hợp 48.03 17.41 22.65 16.92 25.01 56.70 186.72 Tân Thành 34.63 6.50 6.66 2.56 1.16 0.08 >5m 13.83 1.27 42.87 51.59 FLOODED AREA OF SCENARIO Flooded area (ha) District Đồ Sơn Kiến Thụy COMMUNE Total < 0.5 m 0.5 - m 1-2 m 2-3 m 3-5 m Bàng La 41.28 11.99 15.36 10.95 17.36 17.68 114.62 Ngọc Hải 26.49 5.88 9.28 6.26 0.28 48.19 Ngọc Xuyên 7.35 Vạn Hương 28.76 Vạn Sơn 4.46 Đại Hợp 56.61 Đoàn Xá 21.23 21.23 Minh Tân 0.01 0.01 Tân Thành 34.03 7.35 7.69 6.68 5.11 21.99 70.23 4.46 16.98 10.24 112 24.03 9.47 18.88 5.23 33.61 3.36 86.54 236.64 0.61 62.94 FLOODED AREA OF SCENARIO Flooded area (ha) District Đồ Sơn Kiến Thụy COMMUNE Total < 0.5 m 0.5 - m 1-2 m Bàng La 55.62 14.75 Ngọc Hải 27.35 6.21 Ngọc Xuyên 4.64 Vạn Hương 51.25 11.95 18.32 19.85 19.80 10.93 Đại Hợp 63.96 34.14 29.09 17.066 29.42 61.453 235.13 Đoàn Xá 18.24 0.29 Tân Trào 0.01 Tân Thành 52.37 2-3m 3-5m >5m 16.83 11.65 11.86 9.13 0.07 8.71 119.43 42.75 4.64 132.10 18.53 0.01 9.28 113 7.01 2.0636 2.8857 0.2711 73.88 ... EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF ARGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY PHAN TUAN ANH MODELING STORM SURGE AND FLOOD MAPPING FOR KIEN THUY AND DO SON DISTRICT, HAI PHONG CITY Major:... with my efforts and help of my teachers, colleagues, I have completed my thesis with the subject ? ?MODELING STORM SURGE AND FLOOD MAPPING FOR KIEN THUY AND DO SON DISTRICT, HAI PHONG CITY? ?? I am... CHAPTER 4: FLOODING SIMULATION AND DEVELOP FLOOD MAPPING DUE TO STORM SURGE OF KIEN THUY AND DO SON DISTRICT 65 4.1 Setup flood model 65 4.1.1 Domain and mesh 65 4.1.2 Bathymetry