The effect of ưomens education on fertility in vietnam

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THE EFFECT OF WOMEN'S EDUCATION ON FERTILITY IN VIETNAM A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By LE HOANG THIEN KIM r Academic Supervisor: DR NGUYEN HUU DUNG - ·· ,, CERTIFICATION I certify that the substance of this thesis has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being current submitted for any other degree I certify that to the best of my knowledge any help received in preparing this thesis and all sources used, have been acknowledged in this thesis I LE HOANG THIEN KIM • ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Firstly, I would like to thank my academic supervisor Dr Nguyen Huu Dung for his valuable advice, comments and making reference materials available to me Particularly, thanks to these worthy instructions and kindly help from him, I can complete the research I greatly appreciate Mr Truong Thanh Vu for his technique assistance and , valuable comments to the study Many thanks are respectfully sent to my parents, my husband who are always encourage and sympathize with me I would like to thank to all teachers and staffs of the Vietnam- Netherlands programme at University of Economics HCM Finally, I am indebted to Measure DHS Office - ICF Macro, especially Bridgette James- data archive administrator for their assistance and permission to access VDHS 2002 data so that I can complete my thesis " 11 TABLE OF CONTENTS CERTIFICATION i A CKN WLEDGEMENT ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES vi ABBREVIATIONS vii ABSTRACT viii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ! 1.1 Problem Statement 1.2 Research objectives 1.3 Research questions 1.4 Hypotheses 1.5 Research Methodology 1.6 Structure of the thesis CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Definitions, concepts related to fertility and its measures 2.2 Theoretical framework, empirical studies related to determinants of fertility 2.2.1 Theoretical framework • 2.2.1.1 Household demand model 12 2.2.1.2 Demand- supply framework 16 2.2.2 Empirical studies related to effects of women's education on fertility .20 2.3 Summary 25 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 26 3.1 Structure of the VDHS 2002 26 111 3.2 Data set 3.3 Model specification 3.4 Description of variables in the model 3.4.1 Dependent variable 3.4.2 Independent variables 3.5 Estimation strategy 3.5.1 Poisson regression model (PRM) 3.5.2 Factor change in E(yJx) 3.5.3 Percent change in E(yJx) 3.6 Chapter summary CHAPTER FOUR: SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXT AND PROFILES OF WOMEN'S FERTILITY 4.1 Geography and economy 4.2 Population and family planning policies and programs 4.2.1 Population 4.2.2 Family Planning Policies and Programs 4.3 General characteristics of women's fertility 4.4 Differentials in education level of women 4.5 Family planning message 4.6 Children ever born Chapter summary " CHAPTER FIVE: FACTORS AFFECT WOMEN'S FERTILITY IN VIETNAM 5.1 Empirical model 5.2 Estimation results 5.3 Summary CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS IV 6.1 Conclusions 56 6.2 Recommendations 57 6.3 Further Research 58 REFERENCES APPENDIX v LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Table 2.1: Narratives on the determinants offertility Table 2.2: Intervening variables in Cochrane's model on education and fertility 19 Table 4.1: Basic demographic indicators .42 Table 4.2: Distribution ofever-married women by background characteristics (%), Vietnam 2002 45 Table 4.3: Level ofeducation ofever-married women, Vietnam 2002 (%) .46 Table 4.4: Exposure to family planning messages on radio and television (%) 47 Table 4.5: Children ever born by ever-married women aged 15-49, classified by place ofresidence and education level 48 Table 5.1: Poisson Regression Results- Fertility model 63 Figure 2.1: Key variables and interrelations in a variant of Easterlin 's supply demand model 19 VI ABBREVIATIONS ASFR Age-specific fertility rate CBR Crude birth rate CEB Children ever born GFR General Fertility rate GSO General Statistical Office PRM Poisson regression model TFR Total fertility rate US AID VDHS U.S Agency for International Development Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey / Vll ABSTRACT There are numerous studies indicate that women's education plays an important role in number of children ever born This thesis aims to explore the effect of women's education on fertility in Vietnam by using the 2002 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey Given the characteristics of observed fertility pattern, the study applied a count data model, namely, Poisson regression to examine the effects of women's education and other determinants on fertility The major finding of the study is that women's education poses a strong effect to reduce children born in Vietnam The higher the educated women, the lower the expected number of children Similarly, education level of husband or partners also influence the change in the number of children Other determinants of importance in the study show that the higher the age and age of giving first birth, the lower the number of children ever born Public program and knowledge such as of ovulatory cycle and family planning positively help reducing fertility Women live in the rural areas still have a higher number of children than that of women in the urban areas Recommendation for public policies and women health governance in Vietnam should focus more on the education for low-educated women, improving related knowledge of family planning, especially in the rural areas vm CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem Statement Population growth and socioeconomic development are an important issue to Vietnamese policy makers and development planners Vietnam has clearly made significant progress in slowing its rapidly population growth The decline in fertility has been one of the most important demographic changes in recent years The key element behind the change in population in Vietnam is considered as a result at fertility level Many policies to reduce population growth received increasing attention of the government and efforts to extend coverage of birth control services In January 1993, the Communist Party Central Committee for the first time approved a resolution on population and family planning The resolution proposed the objective of "applying small-sized family," and recommended that "each family should have one or two children" in order to lower fertility and stabilize population At the micro level, high population growth leads to a more serious issue of poverty Poorer families, especially women bear the burden of a large number of children with fewer resources per child, further adding to the spiral of poverty Low levels of income among the poorer families with many children leads to inadequate food availability, which perpetuates malnutrition, which in tum accelerates high levels of infant mortality Studies by Ernst and Angst (1983), King (1985) have widely reviewed the relationship between family size, education and the health of children Among poorer families, beyond a certain family size, additional children 53 edsecond eduhigher • know plan age_birth place hus _ edprimar hus edsecond hus _ eduhigher age2024 age2529 age3034 age3539 age4044 age4549 cons Notes: n=5381; * denoted significant at 1% level **denoted significant at 5% level exp(b) = factor change in expected count for unit increase in X exp(b*SD of X)= change in expected count for SD increase in X SDofX = standard deviation of X 54 5.3 Summary The chapter presented and analyzed the research findings on effect of women education on fertility in Vietnam using the data set from VDHS2002 A reduced-form equation is estimated using Poisson regression The study reveals some important findings First, women education has a strong negative effect on fertility as expected The number of children born increases by age of women and women who live in rural areas have more children than women living in the urban From these findings, some recommendations will be suggested in the next chapter 55 CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Conclusions This study has examined the effects of women's education and other factors on fertility in Vietnam It finds strong support for negative correlation between women's education and fertility The findings answer very important question of how women's education, which rarely addressed issues relevant to reproductive and contraception behavior, influences fertility According to Becker et a! (1992) women's education raises their labor participation which in tum raises their earnings, "and hence greater investment in market-oriented skills" which increases women's time value The empirical results are consistent with previous results on household fertility decision in the literature review and corroborate the importance of women's education in family fertility decision The research has used Poisson regression model based on count data The results show that estimated coefficients of all variables on number of children ever born have the expected sign and both women's education and husbands' higher education have statistically significant effects on number of children born Among the socio-economic variables in the model, women's education is found to be the most powerful predictor of fertility decline Weeks (2005) who claims that an increase in education is strongly associated with rational decisionmaking, encourages the diffusion of an innovation such as fertility limitation, offers 56 to people a view of a world that expands their horizon beyond the boundaries of traditional society to re-evaluate the role of women in society The findings also show that women's education pose significant effect to the number of children born Results from Poisson regression indicate that women holding higher education , residence in urban areas has significant negative effect on fertility Higher educated women should be able to implement their fertility preferences including their higher degree of autonomy in reproductive decisionmaking as well as cooperation from their husbands The educated women are likely to live in urban areas and they have lower fertility due to access of having family planning services and other modernization effects Hence, the government should take necessary steps to improve the family planning services in the rural areas 6.2 Recommendations From the result, I emphasize the importance of improving access to education as a way of empowering women and creating more health and family planning framework, especially in rural areas where the effects of education are stronger We find that education has a strong effect for a woman to decide the number of children she has Therefore, investment to women's education must be the objective of fertility reduction To execute this purpose, there are some recommendations drawn from this study as follows: The government should put more efforts in promoting women's education, expanding family programs The promotion of women's education will empower 57 women to make individual decisions and increase their participation in employment where they are exposed to ideas and attitudes to desire smaller family • Providing the employment and earning opportun women Besides, the government should have regulatio gender inequality in all aspects of society, beginning with 6.3 Further Research The findings of the study give rise to implication • fertility in Vietnam might be extended First, exogenous m education are not among those available in the individu unavailability of that information forces this study and pre • year of schooling or education levels to capture the effect o The quality of education depends on a variety of factor education system Additional research needs to take a close education quality behaves differently in explaining fertility where there is more diversity in the quality of education Moreover, VDHS also does not collect on income o we are difficult to find the effect of income and fertility sup quantity theory The association between household incom born per woman is probably the most important economic e fertility rate Researchers should conduct a survey for them to their study purpose 58 REFERENCES Adelman, Irma June (1963) An econometric analysis of population growth The • American Economic Review, 53(3), pp 314-339 Ainsworth 1989 Socioeconomic Determiants of Fertility Standard Measurement Study, Working Paper No.53 Was Bank Ainsworth, Martha & Beegle, Kathleen & Nyamete, Andr Women's Schooling on Fertility and Contraceptive Use: A Saharan African Countries," World Bank Economic Re Press, vol 10(1), pages 85-122, January Axinn, William G, Marin E Clarkberg, and Arland Tho Family influences on family size preferences Demograph • Becker Gary.S 1960 An Economic Analysis of Fertili Economic Changes in Developed Countries, NBER, Princeton, NJ Becker and Lewis H Gregg 1973 "On the Interaction B Quality of Children" Journal ofPolitical Economy, vol 81 Gary S Murphy Becker & Kevin M., 1992 "The Division Costs, and Knowledge," University of Chicago- George G of Economy and State 79, Chicago - 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