The effect of credit growth on credit quality, evidences of commercial banks in dong nai province

VIETNAM – THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THE EFFECT OF CREDIT GROWTH ON CREDIT QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM THE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN DONG NAI A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By TRINH HOANG VIET Academic Supervisor Dr VO HONG DUC HO CHI MINH CITY, December 2015 DECLARATION I hereby declare that the thesis “THE EFFECT OF CREDIT GROWTH ON CREDIT QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM THE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN DONG NAI”, which is submitted to Vietnam – Netherlands Programme, is my original research work All of the contents which are not from my own work are cited carefully and clearly in this thesis I certified that the contents of this thesis have not been and are not being submitted for any other degrees This thesis was done under the supervision and guidance of Dr Vo Hong Duc, Economic Regulation Authority, Western Australia and the Edith Cowan University, Australia Any other contributions to this thesis are presented in the ACKNOWLEDGEMENT section Signature Trinh Hoang Viet st Ho Chi Minh City, November 2015 In my capacity as the supervisor of this thesis, I certified that the statements above are true to the best of my knowledge Signature Dr Vo Hong Duc Date: i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my great appreciation to VNP Lecturer Team for their dedication in teaching, which brought to me useful knowledge and experiences in my academic career I would like to express my deep gratitude to Dr Vo Hong Duc, my research supervisors, for his patient guidance and useful critiques of this research work I would like to offer my special thanks to Mr Pham Quoc Bao and Mr Pham Thanh Huu for facilitating me to collect necessary data during my internship in The State Bank of Viet Nam, Dong Nai Branch I wish to acknowledge the contributions of all VNP students in Class 20, especially Mr Vo Van Hung and Mr Nguyen Son Kien, for sharing learning experiences and valuable academic materials I would also like to extend my thanks to all VNP Staffs for their enthusiasm of assisting my study over the last two years Finally, I would not forget to send my deepest thank to my parents who always encourage me to keep up with my study objectives ii ABSTRACT This research is conducted to examine and quantify the effect of credit growth on credit quality for the commercial banks in Dong Nai In relation to this possible effect, theoretical framework of the so–called “three shifts” in the credit market is likely to explain that credit growth might have positive or negative effect on credit quality These three shifts are generally known as: (i) a supply shift (an expansion in bank loan supply by lowering credit standards), (ii) a demand shift (an increase in loan demand to optimize business activities) and (iii) productivity shift (a positive change in macroeconomic conditions) In addition, empirical evidence confirms that rapid credit growth of commercial banks could lead to a deterioration or improvement of credit quality The macroeconomic context for banking industry indicates that the decline in credit quality after a period of growth might be a reflection of (1) negative changes in the macroeconomic determinants which have a bad influence on the business activities of borrowers; and (2) information externality which makes banks hardly gain efficiency in evaluating their customers This study utilizes the data of 29 commercial banks operating in Dong Nai province for the period from 2009Q3 to 2014Q4 The econometric technique of Difference GMM for dynamic panel data model is adopted in order to examine the effect of credit growth on credit quality in the context of the commercial banks in Dong Nai This study finds empirical evidence to confirm that credit growth causes the decrease in credit quality after three quarters to one year In addition, this effect of credit growth in the long run is found in this study These findings obtained from this study reflects that: (i) commercial banks in Dong Nai might have lowered their credit standards to increase their lending to business customers and individuals; (ii) the conditions of local economy in Dong Nai might have not been really favorable for business activities during the research period; (iii) and the information externality in the loan market might have distorted the accuracy of customers evaluation in relation to their financial capacity iii Keywords: credit growth, credit quality, commercial bank, difference GMM, dynamic model, non–performing loan iv DECLARATION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ABSTRACT TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES CHAPTER 1.1PROBLEM STATEMENT 1.2RESEARCH OBJECTIVE AND QUESTION 1.3RESEARCH SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY 1.4THESIS STRUCTURE CHAPTER 2.1THE MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT FOR BANKIN 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4 2.2CREDIT GROWTH AND CREDIT QUALITY THRO 2.3CONTROL FACTORS FOR CREDIT QUALITY 2.4PREVIOUS EMPIRICAL STUDIES 2.5THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK CHAPTER METHODOLOGY AND DATA 3.1MEASURING CREDIT QUALITY 3.2DATA COLLECTION METHOD 3.3ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3 Estimating The Long–run Coefficients 33 3.3.4 Econometric Specification 35 3.3.5 Hypothesis testing 35 CHAPTER RESULT AND DISCUSSION 38 CHAPTER CONCLUSIONS 46 REFERENCES 49 vi LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1 Change in credit standard, credit growth and credit quality 16 TABLE 2.2 Summarization of the literature 25 TABLE 3.1 Necessary items and their account type 29 TABLE 3.2 The expected signs of variables used in the research 30 TABLE 3.3 The calculation of variables 30 TABLE 3.4 Hypotheses need testing 37 TABLE 4.1 Descriptive statistics 39 TABLE 4.2 Estimation result 41 vii LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2.1 The macroeconomic context for banking .8 FIGURE 2.2 Supply shift 10 FIGURE 2.3 Demand shift 13 FIGURE 2.4 Productivity shift 15 FIGURE 2.5 Different shifts in the macroeconomic context for banking 16 FIGURE 2.6 The effect of credit growth on credit quality 26 FIGURE 4.1 Deposit growth rate and deposit interest rate 39 viii CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT Commercial bank is one of the most important financial intermediaries in the economy Their main functions are mobilizing and lending money to allocate financial resources for households, firms and other economic entities The typical problem of banks is that when borrowers could not use well the money they had borrowed, a credit risk arose One of the main causes is that banks lower their credit standards to attract more borrowers Although it might be a good opportunity to boost credit growth in the present time, banks will face a higher probability to deal with non–performing loans (NPLs) in the future However, if loans expansion is due to an increase in the demand, this growth will not essentially lead to bad loans Therefore, credit growth may be a reflection of credit quality under some circumstances When the economy is in the stage of recession, it is certain to affect negatively on the financial market especially the banking system The general picture is that commercial banks attempt to boost credit growth for profit objective whereas households and firms who borrow money from banks have to face with difficulties in business activities This leads to a consequence that credit growth may reduce credit quality The problem is whether the profit target of commercial banks by boosting credit growth would be efficient or it just increases the NPLs which bring no profits or even losses The determination of the effect of credit growth on credit quality is getting more and more important for not only commercial banks but also central bank and policy makers For commercial banks, it may help them to consider the appropriate time of loosening or tightening credit standards and the decision to expand or limit lending activities For central bank, it will help to control the loans growth of In addition, the “too–big –to–fail” hypothesis contributes to marginal effect of credit growth on credit quality The coefficient of credit growth with its interactive term × , is interpreted as follows: ∑ ∆ = = ∑( = − +∑ ∆( = + − )∆ = 1, the coefficient × ) − of , 10 would be ( ) and the + I f variance is calculated as ( + )= ( )+ ( )+ , The long–run coefficient of corresponding to and is calculated as formula (7), the variance is in formula (8) In the case of long–run coefficient of ( + ), the formula would be calculated as: + =( The corresponding variance of this long–run marginal effect (11) would be: += 36 = (∑ +∑ = =∑ + =∑ = +∑ = ) = = ∑∑ = ( , = ( )+∑ )+ ( )+ ∑∑ = = = , ≠ ( , = , ≠ ∑∑ ( , ) ) = Table 3.4 presents four null hypotheses which need testing as follow: TABLE 3.4 Hypothesis H01: γj = H0 : γj + δj = LR H0 : γ =0 H04: γLR + δLR = Hypotheses need testing Meaning Credit growth does not have any effect on credit quality at lag j Credit growth does not have any effect on credit quality at lag j for the three largest banks Credit growth does not have any long–run effect on credit quality Credit growth does not have any long–run effect on credit quality for the three largest banks 37 CHAPTER RESULT AND DISCUSSION This chapter presents the estimation results and discusses the main findings According to the estimation result, credit growth has negative effects on credit quality at the lag level of and and the long–run coefficient of credit growth is also statistically significant This proves for the existence of supply shift and the information externality in the credit market, and the negative impact from the macroeconomic conditions Figure 4.1 is to compare the growth rate of deposit liabilities of Dong Nai banking system (the growth rate data only capture commercial banks’ branches which were in Dong Nai from 2010Q1 to 2014 Q4) with the quarterly deposit interest rate in Viet Nam As can be seen from the figure, the condition stated in the literature is hold when the deposit growth rate is higher than deposit interest rate It implies the inexistence of potential shock or vulnerability of Dong Nai banking system Therefore, credit growth has not been a great concern for commercial banks during this period However, this figure only brings some evidences to confirm that net resource might be transferred in the direction from depositors to banking system If credit growth does not perform well, it would become a large pressure for commercial banks to boost their mobilizing activities in the future, which could disrupt the condition of deposit growth rate and interest rate and reverse the direction of net resource 38 FIGURE 4.1 Deposit growth rate and deposit interest rate 11 -1 Deposit growth rate Deposit interest rate Source: The State Bank of Vietnam, Dong Nai branch International Monetary Fund eLibrary Data Table 4.1 below presents a summary of descriptive statistics for the sample used in this empirical study TABLE 4.1 Descriptive statistics Variable NPL_SL CREDIT COST_EFF ROA SIZE LEVERAGE LARGEST ∆NPL_SL ∆CREDIT Number of Banks Number of Quarters 39 Table 4.2 presents the estimation result of one–step Difference GMM method with robust standard errors First, test for second order autocorrelation AR(2) shows that − does not correlate with − due to an existence of the high p–value obtained from the analysis Test for first order correlation AR(1) is as expected with small p–value (lower than 0.05) Therefore, the tests for instrument variables are valid Second, both Sargan Test and Hansen Test provide very high p–value, which proves that the null hypothesis of valid instrument variables might not be rejected These tests indicate that the problem of endogeneity would be solved and the coefficients in the model could be used for further analysis According to the estimation results, the coefficients of lagged independent variable (∆ _ − ) is positive and significant, so credit quality in the present might associate with itself in the past It means higher (lower) credit quality might lead to higher (lower) credit quality after one quarter of a particular year The lagged variables of credit growth are also positive and significant at lag level of and It means the decision of expanding lending activities of commercial banks in Dong Nai has negative influence on credit quality after three quarters to one year As stated in the Circular No 02/2013/TT–NHNN, customer loans will be recorded as NPLs if they are overdue from 91 days and above It is about two–quarter shorter than the two significant lag levels of credit quality Therefore, new loans of commercial banks in Dong Nai might have very high chance of becoming NPLs after two quarters from the overdue threshold In the shorter period of one and two quarters, the effect of credit growth on credit quality is not statistically significant 40 TABLE 4.2 Estimation result Dependent variable ∆NPL_SLit−1 Credit growth ∆CREDITit−1 ∆CREDITit−2 ∆CREDITit−3 ∆CREDITit−4 ∆ CREDITit−1 × LARGESTit ∆ CREDITit−2 × LARGESTit ∆ CREDITit−3 × LARGESTit ∆ CREDITit−4 × LARGESTit 41 Cost efficiency ∆COST_EFFit−1 ∆COST_EFFit−2 ∆COST_EFFit−3 ∆COST_EFFit−4 Profitability ∆ROAit−1 ∆ROA it−2 ∆ROAit−3 ∆ROAit−4 Bank size ∆SIZE 42 Leverage ∆LEVERAGEit−1 ∆LEVERAGEit−2 ∆LEVERAGEit−3 ∆LEVERAGEit−4 Long–run coeficient ∆CREDIT ∆ CREDIT × LARGEST Testing for autocorrelation and validity of instruments AR(1) AR(2) Sargan Test Hansen Test Number of instruments Standard errors are presented in parentheses Symbol *, ** and *** represent for significant level at 10%, 5% and 1% 43 As presented on Table 4.2, all the coefficients of credit quality variables interacting with dummy ∆( − × ) are not statistically significant It means the effect of credit growth on credit quality of three largest commercial banks is not different from the others Moreover, almost bank characteristics which are used as control variables in this research are not statistically significant in explaining the change of credit quality ∆ − is significant at 10% but not as expected Besides, despite the insignificant coefficients (except for ∆ _ − ), the signs of cost efficiency and profitability are all positive at all lag levels It partially reflects the potential existence of “Skimping” and “Pro–cyclical credit policy” hypothesis in Dong Nai banking system In the long–run, the coefficient of ∆ is positive and significant It indicates that credit growth of commercial banks in Dong Nai may gradually reduce credit quality The total effect of credit growth is much larger than individual effect from lag levels Similar to the individual lags of credit growth interacting with dummy, the long–run coefficient of ∆ × is not significant, which prove that the influence of credit growth on credit quality is the same among largest banks and the others The estimation results have presented the negative relationship between credit growth and credit quality of commercial banks in Dong Nai, which is represented in both short–run and long–run timeframe This relationship reflects two main implications First, based on the literature, there may be a supply shift in the loan market It appears that commercial banks in Dong Nai are willing to lower their credit standards in order to boost lending activities This action from the commercial banks results in the high chance of lending money to borrowers who have bad financial capacity Second, there would be the existence of adverse effects from the macroeconomic conditions which result in disadvantages for business activities of the economic entities, especially households and small and medium 44 enterprises They would hardly gain positive cash flows to finance their liabilities Thus, overdue loans increase Third, there would be the existence of information externality in the loan market Commercial banks in Dong Nai may mis–evaluate their new customers Firms, households and other borrowers may be able to approach many sources of loans, so they can use borrowed money from somewhere to pay the debts in somewhere else The effect of credit growth on credit quality is not adjusted by the characteristic of large bank size This proves for the inexistence of “too–big–to– fail” hypothesis in the case of commercial banks in Dong Nai Although some banks have much larger size than others, they seem to have partially similar credit growth policy In the aspect of this hypothesis, it means that large banks not have over– confidence psychology (which makes bank believes in the protection of The State Bank of Vietnam) in lending activities In more details, banks whether large or small size have the same change in credit quality corresponding with their change in credit growth This is contrary to the expectation that larger banks often suffer from greater change in credit quality than the smaller banks Vietnam banks in general and Dong Nai banks in particular play a very important role in the financial market If one of them collapses, it would influence other banks due to the problems of cross–deposit among banks and negative psychology of people, and the whole Vietnam banking system would be in trouble Therefore, it may not reasonable to conclude that commercial banks not believe in the intervention from The State Bank to prevent them from failure In the scope, methodology and available data of this research, there is temporarily no evidence to confirm this hypothesis 45 CHAPTER CONCLUSIONS The relationship between credit growth and credit quality could be explained through three shifts in the loan market First, the supply shift represents for the fact that banks expand their lending activities by lowering their credit standards In these circumstances, banks will face a high probability of lending money to bad borrowers Second, the demand shift originates from the demand of the capital restructuring as well as taking advantage of the lower cost capital from banks than somewhere else in capital market Banks would tighten their credit standards for this shift, which reduces credit risks in the future Third, the productivity shift in favorable conditions of the economy reflects the efficient business activities of households, firms and other economic entities who had borrowed money from banks The ability of financing the debts would be improved In addition, the negative nexus between credit growth and credit quality is also explained by adverse macroeconomic shocks on borrowers and the information problems, in which banks misevaluate new customers and as a consequence, the banks not take any care of negative effects of their loans on other banks’ information In accordance with the empirical results obtained from this study on the sample of 29 commercial banks in Dong Nai from 2009Q3 to 2014Q1, credit growth has negative effect on credit quality in both short run and long run This partially proves for the existence of the supply shift in the loan market in the context of Dong Nai Commercial banks in Dong Nai appear to lower their credit quality in this researched period to boost lending In addition, the local economy of Dong Nai is not a good environment for business activities Moreover, the credit externality may exist in the loan market These findings may derive some policy implications which can be presented as follows: 46 For the Commercial banks It is not the right time for boosting credit growth rapidly in Dong Nai The commercial banks have to be more cautious in appraising investment projects, evaluating collaterals and supervising their customers’ capital usage especially new customers in order to avoid bad borrowers Moreover, commercial banks should focus greatly on projects on advantageous fields in Dong Nai such as agriculture, production of exports, labor intensive and high technology industries In the relationship with customers, they should deploy and maintain solutions for their customers to overcome difficulties in business activities; and classify borrowers depending on their state of credit relationship to apply appropriate incentive policies In addition, commercial banks need to control new NPLs, continue to handle old NPLs and prepare sufficient provision for credit risk Finally, commercial banks should keep track of the state of the local economy to implement credit policies timely and efficiently For The State Bank of Vietnam, Dong Nai branch (SBV–DN) The State Bank of Vietnam, Dong Nai branch (SBV–DN) needs to supervise more closely on credit growth of commercial banks, especially commercial banks with high NPL ratio Most importantly, the SBV–DN should classify commercial banks into groups based on their lending activities to target the appropriate rate of credit growth, avoiding high credit risk of weak commercial banks In addition, the SBV–DN has to catch up with the conditions of local economy as well as the real state of commercial banks’ activities in order to enhance the efficiency of administration and operation Finally, they should co–ordinate with the local governments at various levels to improve local economy, create good business environment for commercial banks, households and enterprises 47 For local government at various levels Local governments should ease the legal environment for commercial banks, households and enterprises First, they need to facilitate households and enterprise in the proceedings of business registration Second, they could co–ordinate with relevant departments to support for enterprises’ outputs and stabilizing the markets Last but not least, they could direct Executive Office to speed up process of recovering NPLs This would help commercial banks in injecting capital into the market continuously, which stimulates the local economy In addition to the main empirical findings, this research still has some limitations First, the research scope is only in Dong Nai province Hence, the result will not reflect the convincing outcomes for the whole banking system in Vietnam Second, the period of available data is not sufficient to capture the lags of very long time There are many former 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