The impact of macroeconomics environment on vietnam stock returns

VIETNAM-NETHERLANDS PROGRAM FOR MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THESIS THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ON VIETNAM STOCK RETURNS HUYNH PHI LONG CLASS 18 A thesis submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in Development Economics Under the Supervision of Prof Dr Nguyen Trong Hoai Ho Chi Minh city, NOVEMBER 2015 DECLARATION This is to certify that this thesis entitled “The Impact of Macroeconomic environment on Vietnam stock return,” which is submitted by me in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Art in Development Economic to the Vietnam – Netherland program Thesis constitutes with my work and good supervision Assoc, Prof Dr Nguyen Trong Hoai and acknowledgment that have been made in the text in all material used HUYNH PHI LONG ii ACKNOWLEGMENT First of all, I would like to express my appreciation to my supervisor, Prof Dr Nguyen Trong Hoai, for his invaluable advice and encouragement in during the time that I my thesis I have been lucky to have a supervisor who care so much my thesis and answered to all my question Without his guidance, my thesis would not be finished Second I would like to give my special thanks to Dr Pham Khanh Nam and Dr Truong Dang Thuy for his valuable suggestion that help to complete my thesis Third, I would like to give my appreciation to all the lecture at the Vietnam – Netherland programme for their knowledge of all the course, during the time I studied at the programme iii ABSTRACT This paper estimates the impact of macroeconomic environment on Vietnam stock returns and drawing the conclusion of the impact of macro variables on stock market in order to offer some appropriate policies to improve stock market and provide investors of more information This study uses multiple regression analysis with monthly dataset for recent years from 01/2004 to 08/2013 to evaluate the relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock returns The model explains well the movement of stock return and shows that three variables (CPI, S&P500 and exchange rate) have significant effects on performance iv TABLE OF CONTENT Chapter INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem Statement 1.2 Research Objectives 1.3 Research Questions 1.4 Research scope and data 1.5 Thesis structure Chapter LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Endogenous growth theory 2.2 Empirical studies 2.3 The results of testing the influence of macroeconomic factors on world stock markets 2.3.1 An overview of the relationship between stock and macro factors in each country 2.3.2 Evidence from U.S stock market 11 2.3.3 Evidence from stock markets: Brazil, India, China, Russia 11 2.3.4 Empirical evidence in Thailand 12 2.3.5 Evidence from stock market in London 13 2.4 Research Hypotheses 15 2.4.1 The impacts of Industry production on stock return 15 2.4.2 The impact of inflation on stock return 16 2.4.3 The impact of interest rate on stock return 17 2.4.4 The impact of exchange rate on stock return 18 2.4.5 The impact of oil price on stock return 21 2.4.6 The impact of gold price on stock return 22 2.4.7 The impact of different stock markets on each other 23 2.5 Conceptual framework 25 v Chapter RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 28 3.1 Data source 28 3.2 Methodology 30 Chapter RESEARCH RESULTS 32 4.1 Bivariable analysis 32 4.1.1.The impacts of Industry production on stock market 32 4.1.2 The impact of inflation on stock market 33 4.1.3 The impact of interest rate on stock market 35 4.1.4 The impact of exchange rate on stock market 36 4.1.5 The impact of oil price on stock market 37 4.1.6 The impact of gold price on stock market 38 4.1.7 The impact of different stock markets on each other 39 4.2 Analyzing the return of investment (ROI) of VN-index by the multivariate model 41 4.2.1 Correlation matrix 41 4.2.2 The multivariate model 44 Chapter CONCLUTION 47 5.1 Summary of results 47 5.2 Policy recommendation 49 5.3 Limitation of the study 50 REFERENCES 52 APPENDIX 58 SOURCE OF DATA 68 vi LIST OF TABLE Table 2.1 Conceptual framwork 25 Table 3.1 The expected sign of variable in model 28 Table 3.2 The correlation on the sample observations 41 Table 3.3 The result of regression model 42 vii LIST OF FIGURE Figure 3.1 The proportion of the value of good in Viet nam 32 Figure 3.2 VN index and Industrial production 33 Figure 3.3 VN index and Inflation 35 Figure 3.4 VN-Index and interest rate 36 Figure 3.5 Vn index and exchange rate 37 Figure 3.6 Vn index and Oil price 38 Figure 3.7 Vn index and Gold price 39 Figure 3.8 Vn index and S&P 500 40 viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem Statement Pramod K Complaints and Puja Vidhi (2012) showed that stock market has an indirect impact on the developing by playing a crucial role in its two primary components: industry and commerce Therefore, in the investors view, the stock market also occupy an important position Securities is reputedly a source of long – term capital In consequences, investors could supply capital to companies which are in case of need through the stock market In another word, securities allow companies to expand their business as well as provide a surplus fund to the capital market Before investing in securities, investors should have a thorough grasp of the market by observing the fluctuation of different index Analysing the various indicators is an effective method to have a comprehensive view of the stock market Then, investors can forecast the trend of stock market in the future, make up efficient portfolio to gain the highest profit The efficient market hypothesis proposed by Fama (1970) placed a very significant economic theory for policy makers and investors Accordingly, policy makers are free to implement global policies without worrying about changing the essence of stock market, since they only change the share prices Also, economic theory hypothesizes that stock price reflects not only the available information but also the expectation of firms’ future operation If stock price can accurately reflect the macro environment, it can also be used to be an indicator of future global conditions Therefore, studying the causality and mutual interactions between macro variables and stock price is of great important when the Government is considering any policies for the nation In the literature, relations between economic variables have been researched to give explanations to those relations, specifically, the effects of macroeconomic variables such as industry production, money supply, inflation, exchange rate, gold price, etc., on the stock price, and the relation between those macro variables In Vietnam, changes in global policies and macro variables are often occurring abruptly, leading to strong effects, which are both negative and positive, to investors’ sentiment By applying econometric models, we may have the more general view of the risks and volatility of VN index, generating forecasts and cautionary for investment activities That research are based on econometric tests with highly reliable data and general view of the yield on Vietnam stock market However, many research has proceeded for the stock market and economic factors, and, therefore the conclusions may not be enough As a result, it has been argued that the risk factors from the local rather than risk factors from the world are the primary cause of variation in the stock market According to Hooper, Brailsford, and Bilson (1999) solve the problem of macroeconomic variables that can derive from sources of local risks Sims and Maysami have used Error Correction Modelling techniques to check the relationship between macroeconomic variables and profit shares in Hong Kong and Singapore ( Koon., Wee and Maysami (2004)) Through the Koon., Wee and Maysami (2004), their methods had facilitated to infer relationships between the variables short-term macroeconomic adjustment and balanced long-term, they analyzed the impact of interest rates and inflation, money supply, exchange rates and fluctuations, in fact, with a dummy variable to capture the effects of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 The results can be verified that the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market index in each of the six countries being studied, although the type and size of different associations depending on the financial structure of each country Raman K Agrawalla (2010) attempts to find whether the economic factor can reflect stock price The relations of some macroeconomic factors may change from markets to markets; may vary during various form and also at different frequencies of data Therefore, much intensive research necessary for understanding the macroeconomic variables that can affect the stock market Moreover, the capital markets have experienced significant changes when to apply the policy liberalization, and it became more open to international investor The reform of market and potential economic had attracted a large number of foreign institutional investors in the stock exchange APPENDIX B: Simple regression Table B.1 Industry production and stock return Intercept Industrial production Table B.2 inflation and stock return Intercept inflation Table B.3 interest rate and stock return Intercept Interest rate Table B.4 exchange rate and stock return Intercept Exchange rate Table B.5 oil price and stock return Intercept Oil price Table B.6 gold price and stock return Intercept Oil price Table B.7 S&P 500 and stock return Intercept 60 S&P 500 APPENDIX C: The result of regression m Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations ANOVA Regression Residual Total Intercept change in Industry production value CPI change Oil price Gold return S&P500 return exchange rate change Interest rate APPENDIX D: Test autocorreclation I test autocorrelation for each variables by regressing it self to 1-month lag time series Here are the results: Table C.1 Test autocorrelation for change in industry production Test autocorrelation for change in industry production: regression with 1-month lag Result: t-stat shows that autocorrelation exist SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observation s ANOVA Regression Residual Total Intercept lag month Table C.2 Test autocorrelation for CPI change Test autocorrelation for CPI change: 62 Result: t-stat shows that autocorrelation exists SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observation s ANOVA Regression Residual Total Intercept X Variable Table C.3 Test autocorrelation for Gold Test autocorrelation for Gold: Result: autocorrelation exists 63 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observation s ANOVA Regression Residual Total Intercept X Variable Table C.4 Test autocorrelation for S&P500 return Test autocorrelation for S&P500 return: Result: no autocorrelation 64 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observation s ANOVA Regression Residual Total Intercept X Variable Table C.5 Test autocorrelation for exchange rate change Test autocorrelation for exchange rate change: Result: autocorrelation exists 65 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observation s ANOVA Regression Residual Total Intercept X Variable Table C.6 Test autocorrelation for Interest rate change Test autocorrelation for Interest rate change: Result: no autocorrelation 66 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observation s ANOVA Regression Residual Total Intercept X Variable APPENDIX D: Stationary test I test the stationary attributable of the time series of variales, using AR(1) model Yt = P*Yt-1 + e 67 Or Yt – Yt-1=(P-1)*Yt-1 + e or DeltaYt = T * Yt-1 + e, in which T = P-1 The unit root null hypothesis against the stationary alternative corresponds to: H0: T=0 against H1: T < For the VNindex return time series: SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.584427916 R Square 0.341555989 Adjusted R Square 0.335624061 Standard Error 0.102250951 Observations 113 Intercept X Variable t-test = T / se(T)= -0.6677/0.0879 = -7.58 Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis at 5% critical value We shall consider the time series to be stationary 68 By doing the same method for other time series, we not find evidence that any one of them are non-stationary SOURCE OF DATA - VNindex: Hochiminh stock exchange - Industrial production: General Statistic Office of Vietnam (GSO) - CPI: GSO - Exchange rate (VND/USD): GSO - Oil price: US energy information Administration - Gold price: GSO - Interest rate: GSO - S&P500: American stock exchange Time 01-01-2004 01-02-2004 01-03-2004 01-04-2004 01-05-2004 01-06-2004 01-07-2004 01-08-2004 01-09-2004 69 01-10-2004 01-11-2004 01-12-2004 01-01-2005 01-02-2005 01-03-2005 01-04-2005 01-05-2005 01-06-2005 01-07-2005 01-08-2005 01-09-2005 01-10-2005 01-11-2005 01-12-2005 01-01-2006 01-02-2006 01-03-2006 01-04-2006 01-05-2006 01-06-2006 01-07-2006 01-08-2006 01-09-2006 01-10-2006 01-11-2006 01-12-2006 01-01-2007 70 01-02-2007 01-03-2007 01-04-2007 01-05-2007 01-06-2007 01-07-2007 01-08-2007 01-09-2007 01-10-2007 01-11-2007 01-12-2007 01-01-2008 01-02-2008 01-03-2008 01-04-2008 01-05-2008 01-06-2008 01-07-2008 01-08-2008 01-09-2008 01-10-2008 01-11-2008 01-12-2008 01-01-2009 01-02-2009 01-03-2009 01-04-2009 01-05-2009 71 01-06-2009 01-07-2009 01-08-2009 01-09-2009 01-10-2009 01-11-2009 01-12-2009 01-01-2010 01-02-2010 01-03-2010 01-04-2010 01-05-2010 01-06-2010 01-07-2010 01-08-2010 01-09-2010 01-10-2010 01-11-2010 01-12-2010 01-01-2011 01-02-2011 01-03-2011 01-04-2011 01-05-2011 01-06-2011 01-07-2011 01-08-2011 01-09-2011 72 01-10-2011 01-11-2011 01-12-2011 01-01-2012 01-02-2012 01-03-2012 01-04-2012 01-05-2012 01-06-2012 01-07-2012 01-08-2012 01-09-2012 01-10-2012 01-11-2012 01-12-2012 01-01-2013 01-02-2013 01-03-2013 01-04-2013 01-05-2013 01-06-2013 01-07-2013 01-08-2013 Agriculture Industry Service 73 74 ... 4.1.1 .The impacts of Industry production on stock market 32 4.1.2 The impact of inflation on stock market 33 4.1.3 The impact of interest rate on stock market 35 4.1.4 The impact. .. impact of macroeconomic environment on Vietnam stock returns Drawing the conclusion of the impact of macro variables on stock market in order to offer some appropriate policies to improve stock. .. The impact of exchange rate on stock return 18 2.4.5 The impact of oil price on stock return 21 2.4.6 The impact of gold price on stock return 22 2.4.7 The impact of