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The dissertation studies the scientific basis (both theoretical and practical) to propose solutions for trade-oriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration by 2025 and the following years.
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THUONG MAI UNIVERSITY Le Nguyen Dieu Anh TRADEORIENTED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTERGRATION IN VIETNAM Major: Economic Management Code: 934.04.10 Dessertation summary Hanoi, 2020 The desseration is completed at Thuong mai University Supervisors: 1. Asso. Prof. Dr. Ha Van Su 2. Asso. Prof. Dr. Pham Thuy Hong Reviewer 1: Asso. Prof. Phan To Uyen Reviewer 2: Asso. Prof. Nguyen Thi Nguyet Reviewer 3: Asso. Prof. Vu Thi Kim Oanh The dessertation will be upholded in the University's Dessertation Evaluation Council Meeting at the Thuong mai University At……. time …… date ………. month ………. year ………… The dissertation can be found at: National Library Library of Thuong mai University INTRODUCTION 1. Rationales of the research Globalization is becoming an objective trend of countries all over the world. Participating in globalization and international integration brings many benefits such as developing import and export, expanding markets, contributing to boosting production forces However, its negative impacts on almost aspects of the socioeconomic life of nations are significant, especially for developing and underdeveloped countries International integration plays an important role in promoting the export, especially raw materials and semiprocessed goods export, which may lead to the exhaustion of natural resources and serious environmental damage Warnings about an unsustainable development are issuing a challenge to countries which participate in international integration Sustainable development is a stable economic development associated with ensuring social security and protecting the ecological environment, or sustainable development is the developing process of today's generation without harming to future generations In the process of international integration, opening markets and strengthening integration with the goal of ensuring tradeoriented sustainable development is an urgent issue which is attracting the attention of the State, organizations and all members of society. It is necessary for countries to develop a trade oriented sustainable development strategy consistent with their own strengths and advantages. A truly sustainable trade policy will also avoid excessive reliance on natural resources, commitment to high environmental standards in trade agreements, and the reduction on air and water pollution Relating to Vietnam, globalization and international integration have brought significant strides to Vietnam's economy. From a poor and foodpoor country after the war in 1975, Vietnam has become one of the world's leading exporters such as rice and coffee. In general, total export turnover of Vietnam in recent years was higher than the previous years; in 2019 it increased 8.1% compared to 2018, reaching 263.45 billion USD and was the fourth consecutive year of trade surplus. However, the impacts of international integration and trade liberalization have had a significant impact on economic sustainability, social equality, and a rapid increase in the gap between the rich and the poor, ecological environment, and environmental pollution. The marine ecosystem is seriously affected, the mineral resources are in danger of being exhausted, and the area ofnatural forests is being degraded and lost at an unstable pace In the process of international economic integration, trade has become a pioneer, with trade relations paving the way for official diplomatic relations between nations. Trade development is the way to exploit the potentials and strengths of the country, attract foreign investment, accelerate the industrialization and modernization of the country, aiming at the goal of sustainable development. . Therefore, in order to develop Vietnam's economy and society sustainably in the period of international integration, it is necessary to formulate strategies and solutions for trade oriented sustainable development in the context of international integration in Vietnam nowadays In terms of theory, there have been studies on tradeoriented sustainable development in general and for regions in particular. However, there has been no research developing a complete theoretical framework, especially considering the impact of international integration, multidimensional impacts on trade in general, and the impact of unsustainability such as economic vulnerability, financial crisis, unemployment, widening the gap between the rich and the poor, environmental pollution Indepth study of tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration is essential, which may contribute to develop theoretical and practical management situations Therefore, the topic "Tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration in Vietnam" is selected for the research; it has both theoretical and practical implications. 2. Literature reviews The author has summarized the local and international studies related to the research topic in the following groups. 2.1.1 Sustainable development First of all, the studies about sustainable development include: Our common future of WCED (1987), “Beyond Economic Growth: An Introduction to Sustainable Development” of Tatyana P. Soubbotina (2004), Peter P. Rogers, Kazi F. Jalal và John A. Boyd (2007), Dinh Van An (2005) "Perspective and reality of fast, highquality and sustainable socioeconomic development in Vietnam"; Le Xuan Dinh (2005), 'Sustainable development is a guarantee of socialist orientation of market economy in Vietnam', Ministrylevel project "Sustainable development from concept to action" of author Ha Huy Thanh in 2009, Institute for Environment Research and Sustainable Development. Report of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization UNIDO 2012, "Towards green growth from green industry development in Vietnam" 2.1.2 Trade and tradeoriented sustainable development The related studies include: Author John AsafuAdjaye in 2004 with the work "International trade and sustainable development in SubSaharan Africa"; UNEP report "Sustainable Trade and Poverty Reduction: New Approaches to Intergrated Policy Making at the National Level" in 2006; Research by Chen Jiyong, Liu Wei and Hu Yi in 2006 on "Foreign trade, environmental protection and sustainable economic growth in China”; the research done by Moustapha Kamal Gueye, Malena Sell, Janet Strachan 2009 on "Trade, climate change and sustainable development: key issues for small states, least development countries and vulnerable economic"; and Author Paul Hawken (2013) in the book "The Ecology of Commerce" 2.1.3 Tradeoriented sustainable development in international context a. Tradeoriented sustainable development in international context The group of authors Grant Hewison, Veena Jha and Maree Underhill (1997) published the book "Trade, Environment and Sustainable Development: A South Asian Perspective"; The World Trade Organization (WTO) published the book "Trade, Development and the Environment" in 2000; Wiliam R. Cline (2004) conducted a research on "Trade Policy and Global Poverty"; Zoltan Ban’s research in 2012 on "Sustainable Trade: Changing the Environment the Market Operates in Through Standardized Global Trade Tariffs paperback"; and Paul Ekins’s study on "Trade, Globalization and Sustainability Impact Assessment: A Critical Look at Methods and Outcomes" in 2012 A number of studies of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministrylevel scientific research projects such as "Main solutions to develop trade following the approach of sustainable development in the context of Vietnam's international economic integration" by Ha Van Su in 2004; PhD thesis in economics on "Solutions to enhance state management of environmental protection in order to develop Vietnam's trade in the context of international economic integration" by Doan Thi Thanh Huong in 2008, Commercial Research Institute; Economic doctoral thesis on "Sustainable export in Vietnam in the process of international economic integration" (2009) by Ho Trung Thanh, University of Economics, Vietnam National University, Hanoi; Ha Thi Thanh Binh’s research in 2012 on "Protection of trade in the context of international economic integration and the adjustment effect of Vietnamese law" b Evaluation criteria on Trade-oriented sustainable development The following studies and materials are related to the abovesaid topics: Thomas M. Parris and Robert W Kates (2003); United Nations (1996); 1995 United Nations Committee for Sustainable Development (CSD); CGSDI Sustainable Development Goals (1999) Book (OECD, 2011b); World Bank (WB, 2012); R. Prescott Allen (2001), The World Conservation Union has published the Well Being index (WI) In addition, Mathis Wackernagel (2003) has developed Ecological footprint; Environmental sustainability index of the World Economic Forum (2002); Decision No. 432 / QDTTg dated 12 April 2012 promulgating the monitoring and evaluation indicators for Vietnam's sustainable development period 20112020; UNCTAD (2016) developed a set of trade indicators to assess Efficient commercial price of the nation; The Economist Intelligence Unit (2016) developed the Asia Sustainable Trade Index 2.1.4 Elements affecting Tradeoriented sustainable development in globalization context The studies of Kris MYLaw (2010), Liu Ligang (2001), Liu Bangcheng and Jiang Taiping (2000), Wu Yingyu (2003), Vittorio, Raffaella & Giuliano (1999), Yang Mei (2016), Research of Jianteng Xu, Yuyu Chen and Qingguo Bai (2016), Ho Trung Thanh (2009), Duong Thi Tinh (2015, Nguyen Thanh Hoai (2012) In the content of this review, besides pointing out the scientific values (theoretical and practical) inherited, the PhD student also identified the research gap of the thesis topic 3. Aims of the research The dissertation studies the scientific basis (both theoretical and practical) to propose solutions for tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration by 2025 and the following years 4. Objectives of the research To achieve the objectives of the project, it is necessary to focus on the following tasks: Firstly, systematize and build the basic principles of tradeoriented sustainable development of countries such as: the essence and role of tradeoriented sustainable development; Contents and criteria for evaluating tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration Secondly, analyze and assess the current situation of tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration in Vietnam, linking the relationship between trade and environmental protection and trade with social issues Thirdly, analyze and assess the status of tradeoriented sustainable development policies in the context of international integration in Vietnam Fourthly, analyze the impact of factors affecting tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration in Vietnam Fifthly, explain the existing problems in the implementation of tradeoriented sustainable development in our country when facing the challenges brought about by international integration, pointing out the advantages and experience lessons, limitations and causes of Vietnam's tradeoriented sustainable development Sixthly, give some appropriate perspectives, directions and solutions for the reality of the research situation in the period of 19952019, with orientation to 2025 and the following years for tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration in Vietnam and in accordance with the orientation of the State 5. Subject(s) and scope of the research 5.1 Subject(s) of the research The subject of the thesis is the theories and practices of tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration in Vietnam 5.2 Scope of the study In terms of content: The dissertation only focuses on trade development research based on sustainable approach associated with the results of trade development achieved in terms of both domestic and importexport trade; Only examines the comprehension of of tradeoriented sustainable development but focuses on factors due to the impact of international integration, especially international economic integration Trade, in the broad sense of the WTO, includes both goods trading and services trading. However, services trading is a very broad sector (there are 12 sectors and 155 subsectors). Moreover, the dissertation is specialized in economic management, the trade approach is usually goods trading (including domestic trade and importexport trade), and related to the mode of wholesale and retail, franchises and agents. This will be consistent with Vietnam, with trade management of goods managed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Therefore, the scope of the dissertation is Vietnam's goods trading, and it focuses on domestic trade and importexport trade In terms of space: The dissertation mainly focuses on trade development in the context of international integration, domestic and importexport goods trading, and focuses only on development issues associated with demand for sustainable development In terms of time: The dissertation studies the current situation of Vietnam's tradeoriented sustainable development from 1995 to 2019 and proposes views and solutions by 2025 and following years 6. Research methodology a. Methods of analyzing and summarizing theory: This method is used to serve the study of document overview, to build a theoretical basis for the dissertation topic. By linking the aspects, parts, information relationships from the collected theories into a whole, it creates a complete and deep theoretical system of tradeoriented sustainable development b Method of classifying and systematizing theory: This method is used in the study overview, systematizing theory to build concept, content, evaluation criteria, views and policies of the State on tradeoriented sustainable development c. Methods of collecting and processing data Qualitative research: This method is used in researching the comprehension of trade oriented sustainable development, policy evaluation, and tradeoriented sustainable development orientation of Vietnam. Secondary data is collected from statistical inventory, reports of state management agencies, organizations, enterprises, inheriting previous studies related to the topic Quantitative research: This method is used in collecting, statistically describing data, testing models, estimating variables and assessing the impact of factors affecting tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration under the ARDL model, on the basis of secondary data sources of the General Statistics Office, WB, Tradingeconomics, d. Method of totaling up and comparing: This method is used to summarize documents, collate between stages, different areas; Using the system of tables and figures to show the scale and quality of tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration 7. Scientific and practical significance of the research topic 7.1. Theoretically The research contributes to systematize and develop the theory of tradeoriented sustainable development; clarify the content and nature and the relationship between trade development, environmental protection and social issues The research analyzes the impacts of globalization and international integration on trade oriented sustainable development; conditions to ensure tradeoriented sustainable development in international integration The research analyzes case studies of tradeoriented sustainable development from a number of countries around the world; tradeoriented sustainable development indicators system The research builds appropriate models which can apply to assess the impact of factors affecting tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration 7.2. Practically The research clarifies the sustainability of trade development between 1995 and 2019 according to the criteria of tradeoriented sustainable development The research applies a model to assess the impact of factors affecting tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration and determines model experimental results The research forecast tradeoriented sustainable development trends of Vietnam and its impacts on environment and society in the upcoming time The research proposes orienting solutions to Vietnam’s tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration by 2025 and the following years 8. Research organization The dissertation includes three chapters: Chapter 1: Theoretical basis and practical experience on tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration Chapter 2: Analyzing and assessing the current situation of tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration today Chapter 3: Perspectives and key solutions to develop tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of Vietnam's international integration by 2025 and the following years Chapter 1. THEORETICAL BASIS AND PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE OF TRADE ORIENTED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION 1.1 THE NATURE AND THE NECESSITY OF TRADEORIENTED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION OF COUNTRIES NOWADAYS 1.1.1. Basic issues about development and sustainable development Growth and development are two sides of social development and are closely related. If economic growth only focuses on bringing economic benefits to a population group or an area but does not bring economic benefits to the society, economic growth will increase the social inequality Such growth methods are shortterm, not promote development and will be eliminated The most widely used and accepted definition of sustainable development is WCED’s (1987), sustainable development is the development that meets current needs, but does not hinder the ability to meet the needs of future generations. The goal of sustainable development is to achieve material adequacy, spiritual and cultural wealth, civic equality and social consensus, harmony between human and nature. The three intersecting circle model is most commonly used to describe sustainable development (Barkemeyer, 2014). Sustainable development is the intersection of the middle where three areas are unified. Although there is a lot of debate about the sustainable development model, the three intersecting circle model is still accepted worldwide, it helps to conceptualize the concept of sustainable development (Peeters, 2012) The circles represent the difference between sustainable development with specific policies and political issues, proposing a holistic and complementary concept for sustainable development 1.1.2. The nature of tradeoriented sustainable development 1.1.2.1 Definition and objective of tradeoriented sustainable development a. Commercial concept Viewed from the perspective of social division of labor, trade is considered as an independent economic sector of the economy Within the framework of this thesis, trade is approached as goods trading and is viewed from an economic perspective. The trade industry specializes in organizing, circulating goods and providing services to society through purchasing 10 and selling in order to make profits. Trade developing, smooth circulation of goods manifests the healthy and prosperous economy b. The concept of tradeoriented sustainable development From the perspective of approaching trade development towards sustainable development goals, the concept of tradeoriented sustainable development in this thesis is given as follow: Tradeoriented sustainable development is the development that the results of trade development meet the requirements of sustainable development, which is manifested by the rapid and stable development of scale, reasonable structure and quality assurance for growth and poverty reduction and environmental protection Continuous trade growth, containing many risks when fluctuations appear due to unreasonable structure, causing macroeconomic instability; or export growth but mainly based on natural resources, which leads to the exhaustion of natural resources, environmental pollution; or export only benefits the group, causes social inequality it is not a tradeoriented sustainable development. tradeoriented sustainable development must be export development whose results meet the requirements of sustainability macroeconomic stability, job creation, poverty reduction and environmental improvement. c. Tradeoriented sustainable development goals Firstly, developing trade scale towards sustainability Tradeoriented sustainable development must maintain a fast, stable and longterm growth rate in terms of scale and speed of domestic and international trade Secondly, developing trade structure towards sustainability Ensuring quality of trade based on sustainable of trade structure and production; improving the competitiveness of goods in the international market, participating in the global value chain integrating successfully step bystep into the regional and world economy Thirdly, ensuring the quality of tradeoriented sustainable development Increasing the added value of trade, increasing the proportion of hightech goods, reducing the proportion of raw products; strengthening capacity and efficiency to participate in global value chains. The results of tradeoriented sustainable development contribute positively to the sustainable development of the economy, macroeconomic stability 1.1.3. The need for tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration of countries today Integration has become a major trend of the modern world, strongly affected international relations and the life of each nation International integration is the process of linking and cementing countries / territories together based on the sharing of interests, goals, values, resources, power and compliance with common rules within international institutions or organizations to create collective power to resolve common issues of common interest. Economic integration is a very important foundation for the sustainable existence of integration Chapter 2. ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF CURRENT STATUS OF TRADE ORIENTED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION TODAY 2.1. OVERVIEW OF THE CURRENT STATUS OF TRADE DEVELOPMENT OF VIETNAM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION TODAY 2.1.1. Overview of international integration process in Vietnam International integration is a major policy of the Party and Government, and is the central focus of the country's renovation. As of February 2020, Vietnam has participated in 16 bilateral and multilateral FTAs (12 FTAs are in effect, 1 FTA was signed but has not yet taken effect, 3 FTAs are under negotiation). The total number of partners having FTA with Vietnam is 21 countries. If 16 FTAs are in force, the total number of partners will increase to 57 countries. Vietnam's participation in WTO and newgeneration FTA marks two waves of Vietnam's international integration As a result of the steps of integration, the Vietnamese economy has become an open economy, with a relatively strong level of liberalization, the business environment and economic institutions of Vietnam are getting more compatible to the common world practice and basic market economy standards. Vietnam's economy has achieved a much higher growth rate than that of prerenovation period. In 2019, Vietnam's GDP increased by 7.02%. The international integration has put pressure on Vietnam to finalize the domestic policy and legal framework on economics, economic institutions as well as economy operating models according to world standards 2.1.2 Current situation of trade development in the context of Vietnam's international integration 16 2.1.2.1 Current status of Vietnam's domestic trade development in the context of international integration Domestic trade plays a particularly important role for sustainable economic development, especially in the context of Vietnam building a socialistoriented market economy and becoming increasingly involved in international integration Vietnam has formed a unified, stable and smooth domestic market throughout the country and taken more proactive part in the trend of international integration In addition, international integration contributes the emergence and rapid development of advanced and modern business methods and trade types (supermarkets, trade centers, shopping centers etc). The globalization of import taxes has led to a rapid increase in the source of imports to Vietnam from other countries with low prices, quality and abundant models. This will put competitive pressure on domestic production, businesses and Vietnamese farmers. Agricultural products will be the most vulnerable in international integration 2.1.2.2 Current situation of Vietnam's development of import and export trade in the context of international integration The two waves of international integration are the turning point marking Vietnam's active and proactive participation in global trade. Import and export trade has not only contributed positively to economic growth but also created important changes to domestic production, contributed to economic restructuring, industrialization and modernization. The growth quality has not shown sustainability, the trend of industrialization and modernization. Exports are mainly made in lowskilled, laborintensive and low valueadded industries and at low positions in the global value chain 2.2 ANALYSIS OF THE STATUS OF TRADEORIENDTED SUSTAINABLE TRADE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION OF VIETNAM 2.2.1 Current status of tradeoriented sustainable development scale 2.2.1.1 Growth of gross retail sales of goods The total circulation of retail goods in Vietnam has continuously increased over the years from 1995 up to now, making a positive contribution to the goods exchange and circulation in the domestic market, which increasingly meets the demand of consumption of people. The gross retail sales of goods in 2019 reached 3,751,335 billion VND 2.2.1.2 Growth rate of goods exportimport turnover Source: General Statistics Office (2020) Figure 2.5: Vietnam's trade balance between 1995 2019 The year off 2019 is the 4th consecutive year that Vietnam has reached a trade surplus, which creates momentum for the goal of improving the trade balance in a positive way. Vietnam's exports increased by 8.1% in 2019 which was mainly resulted by a sharp increase of electronic exports. This reflects Vietnam's position with the world as well as its effectiveness in the state's trade regulation strategy 2.2.2 Actual situation of tradeoriented sustainable development structure 2.2.2.1 Export and import structure by commodity group The structure of export goods of Vietnam has a clear shift towards reducing the proportion of raw and semiprocessed goods, gradually increasing the proportion of processed and manufactured goods. From 2011 to date, the structure of heavy industrial goods and minerals accounted for the highest proportion of total exports, due to the sudden increase in the number of mobile phones, spare parts. most of which are from FDI sector with potential for unsustainable development because of exports of low valueadded products. The structure of imports of goods moved in a positive direction, though it was not significant. The structure of Vietnam's imported goods has not yet focused on the core of sustainable development 2.2.2.1 Structure of export and import according to standard international trade classification (SITC) The structure of Vietnam's export goods has tended to gradually reduce the proportion of raw or newlyprocessed goods. The structure of import goods of Vietnam in terms of foreign trade standards did not change much. The import value of goods for assembly activities accounts for a high proportion in the export turnover of goods etc. In other words, an increase in exports means an increase in imports 2.2.2.3 Export and import structure by market Following the increasingly extensive international integration, Vietnam's export and import markets have been increasingly expanded and diversified. The structure of Vietnamese export partners is quite uniform and stable, except for Japan, which tends to decrease The structure of Vietnam's import goods market has shifted in a positive direction but is still slow. In 2019, six countries and regions above accounted for 80.2% of Vietnam's total import turnover 2.2.3 Actual quality of trade development towards sustainability 2.2.3.1 Participating in the global value chain Trade in Vietnam has just joined the pricebased value chain without investing in human resources and technology to participate in quality and productivitybased value chains. Therefore, in order to gain greater value in the global value chain, Vietnam needs to overcome production, assembly stages and invest more in preproduction stages such as research, development and design etc. or postproduction stages such as marketing, distribution etc 2.2.3.2 Trade contribution to GDP In the period 19952019, Vietnam trade value tended to increase steadily in the last years of the study period. Trade has contributed to the overall economic growth of Vietnam. However, taking a closer look, it can be seen that basic GDP and export growth was dependent on the foreign invested sector. The domestic economic sector has continuously experienced large trade deficits while the foreign invested economic sector had a surplus This shows the current unsustainability in trade development in Vietnam today which leads to the risk of the economy being dependent on FDI and the limited use of opportunities from integration 2.2.3.3. Trade's contribution to environmental protection 18 During the research period, trade development has contributed to the maintenance, biological development and environmental protection, especially in the context of international integration. However, trade development entails environmental pollution problems, typically air pollution. Especially, smallscale mining and processing activities are quite common in Vietnam. Increasing export of timber and wood products has narrowed the area of natural forests and the quality of forests has not improved. Illegal logging is the cause of reduced forest area 2.2.3.4 Trade's contribution to poverty reduction goals Increasing commercial scale will create more jobs for society. Thanks to the continuous growth of trade in the period 19952019, the rate of poor households decreased rapidly, from 37.4% in 1998 to less than 4% in 2019. The rapid increase in trade and export of goods has contributed to increasing GDP, thereby increasing per capita income. In general, an increase in the income of commercial labor creates a source of encouragement for commercial workers to improve their lives 2.2.4 Current situation of tradeoriented sustainable development policies in the context of Vietnam's international integration Commodity policy: The policy of managing essential goods, goods quality, the policy of national branding and the protection of consumers' interests Merchant policy Market policies: Policies for domestic trade development, policies on import and export trade development, tariffs policies, quantitative restrictions, tariff quotas and trade remedy policies Policies on investment and development of trade infrastructure 2.2.5 Analysis of the results of the impact of factors affecting tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration 2.2.5.1 Research model Symbols: ∆ is a symbol for stopping variables; ti, tj, tk are the latencies of the study variables, respectively 2.2.5.2. Regression analysis results The result of regression analysis with the dependent variable is the ratio of resource exports to GDP (XKTN) With two tests of autocorrelation and variance are satisfactory (pvalue of both tests is greater than 0.05), the model is reliable to analyze and evaluate the influence of the factors on resource export. The results of regression analysis through the ARDL model show that GDP, ICOR, FTA have a negative effect on resource exports in the short term (negative beta and p value are less than 0.05). This result indicates that if one of the factors of GDP, ICRO or FTA increases, the rate of resource export will decrease and vice versa. In the long run, the Openess, FTA and GCI factors have an opposite effect on the ratio of resource exports. This result shows that the longterm strategy for changing the proportion of resource exports should focus on OPENESS, FTA and GCI because GDP or ICOR factors only have shortterm effects Private economic growth factors GE_PRIVATE, the ratio of labor in agriculture (LB_AGRI) have a positive impact on the ratio of resource exports in the short term (positive beta and pvalue are less than 0.05). However, in the long term, only the proportion of labor in agriculture has a positive effect on the ratio of resource exports The result of regression analysis with the dependent variable is LB The analysis results for the dependent variable LB show that in both short and long term, ICOR, OPeness have a positive effect on LB labor ratio (positive beta and pvalue are less than 0.05). In the short term, an increase in ICRO or Openess increases the rate of LB labor and vice versa The growth factors in the private sector GE_PRIVATE, FDI have an opposite effect on the ratio of shortterm labor LB (negative beta and pvalue are less than 0.05). However, in the long term, only FTA has the opposite effect on LB labor rate (positive longterm coefficient and p value are less than 0.05) Regression analysis results with the dependent variable TM According to the quantitative results of the coefficients (DPGDP, ∆ICOR, ∆GE_PRIVATE, ∆OPENESS, ∆FDI, ∆LB_AGRI), all factors have a positive effect on the contribution of trade in GDP and reflect the positive impacts on the economy in the context of international integration and in accordance with the reality of sustainable trade development in Vietnam. The results of the quantitative model and the ∆GCI variable coefficient (global competitiveness index) do not explain the sustainable development of trade in Vietnam in the research sample as expected Quantitative results of the coefficients are consistent with the current situation of sustainable trade development in Vietnam 2.3 EVALUATION THE SITUATION OF TRADEORIENTED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION OF VIETNAM 2.3.1. Successes and limitations of trade development towards sustainability in the context of Vietnam's international integration 2.3.1.1 Successes Firstly, the development of trade has enhanced the economy scale. Secondly, the import and export of goods has been expanded and maintained a high growth rate for many years. Thirdly, the structure of export and import markets has been increasingly expanded and diversified, the structure of export markets has gradually shifted towards positive direction 20 Fourthly, trade has significantly contributed to job creation, poverty reduction, raising workers' incomes and improving social security, helping to ensure more harmonious socio economic and environmental goals in the tradeoriented sustainable development. Fifthly, the system of policies to encourage and expand bilateral and multilateral cooperation relations has been improving market access conditions for businesses to expand markets, ensuring import demand materials, equipment and technology 2.3.1.2 Limitations Firstly, the domestic trade market is facing with difficulties and challenges Second, the structure of goods according to the level of processing lacks sustainability, mainly developing in width, not focusing on development in depth. Third, the balance of exports and imports by market is increasingly negative, typically in the trade balance with major trading partners. Fourth, the structure of the economic component in the export of goods is still largely dependent on the FDI sector. Fifth, the system of trade policies still has some limitations Sixthly, the increasing risk of environmental pollution from the outside or transnational environmental pollution from the process of trade liberalization and international integration Seventhly, in the process of international integration and trade liberalization, the inequality, the gap between rich and poor is increased, and at the same time affects tje labor mobility and the put enormous pressure of population aging on the social security system of nations 2.3.2 Cause of the limitations of tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration of Vietnam Firstly, tradeoriented sustainable development is a policy that requires consistency and unity from the central to local levels, industries and enterprises. Second, the institutions and trade policies still have many shortcomings and have not met the reality of international integration Thirdly, Vietnam passively joins international commitments, especially the new generation FTAs without clear strategy, readiness and good preparation. Fourthly, the weakness of infrastructure and supporting industries has led to the consequence that a lot of industries rely heavily on imports, are passive in production with low added value etc. Fifth, the number and qualification of commercial labor force has not yet met the requirements. Sixthly, investment resources for trade development are facing many difficulties and fail to meet the development requirements. Seventh, limitations on the capacity to enforce environmental regulations, especially in industrial zones, mining, aquaculture areas Chapter 3. MAJOR POINTS AND SOLUTIONS FOR TRADEORIENTED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION OF VIETNAM TO 2025 AND THE FOLLOWING YEARS 3.1 POINTS AND ORIENTATIONS FOR TRADEORIENTED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION OF VIETNAM TILL 2025 AND FOLLOWING YEARS 3.1.1. Forecasts of trade development in the context of Vietnam international integration up to 2025 and following years 3.1.1.1 Forecast on domestic trade Forecast of domestic trade in 2025 will reach over VND 700 trillion, contributing about 15.5% to GDP a. Forecast of retail market Regarding population size: population is 96,462,106 million people in 2019, the population growth rate is forecast at about 1% / year and reaches 100 million by 2025, of which the largest consumption group is 22 55 years old, accounting for over 70% of the population In terms of income and purchasing power: Net income per household is projected to increase by more than 42% by 2025. Total household expenditure is forecast to increase by 50% by 2025, according to Fitch Solutions b. About buying methods Under the impact of modern science and technology revolution, ecommerce is expected to develop strongly in the coming time. Ecommerce with outstanding features such as saving time, trading costs, expanding opportunities to enter markets, stimulating consumption, etc. facilitates global trade development in the context of integration international and extensive globalization today c. Trends in participating in the goods supply chain, linking circulation with production, processing and forming goods supply chains 3.1.1.2. Forecast of import and export trade Exports are forecast to continue to grow in 2020, leading to an increase in imports, especially in Vietnam's industries that rely on importing raw materials and machinery from foreign countries. Some import and export trade trends are forecast as follows: 22 a. Opportunities for development of exportimport trade of Vietnam from free trade agreements Globalization and regionalization continue to have a profound impact on trade development and trade liberalization. The process of international integration and the explosion of regional, bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements, especially the generation of new generation FTAs, continue to link the process of cooperation and integration. manufacturing, promoting countries to participate in global value chains. It is forecasted that in the coming time, the implementation of new generation FTAs such as CPTPP, EVFTA will create a new wave of investment in Vietnam b. Opportunities from trade war between America and China The USChina trade war has opened Vietnam an opportunity to expand its export markets. Chinesemade goods that are subject to high taxation will create opportunities for Vietnam to expand its export of similar products to the US. Vietnamese businesses have the opportunity to buy raw materials, components and spare parts at low prices, thereby increasing the competitiveness of exported goods to the US market, partly replacing Chinese goods. c. The trend on application of technologies in 4.0 era The technology revolution 4.0 has changed the way of crossborder transactions The application of management software will help businesses have sufficient information on foreign trade transactions, current legal provisions for each market. This trend will reduce trade time and costs, improve product competitiveness. At the same time, this also raises the requirement for state agencies to have sanctions and regulations to control activities that take advantage of gaps in ecommerce 3.1.1.3. Trend of tradeoriented sustainable development The trade is developed towards sustainability, environmental protection and social justice. Therefore, the development of production, consumption, and supply sources are linked to environmental protection goals etc 3.1.1.4 Forecast some risks to tradeoriented sustainable development a. Risks from political tensions: Political conflicts and trade tensions will affect investor confidence, declining trade, industry and global production, product supply and consumption b Disease risks: Epidemic outbreaks have a serious impact on trade growth and development The epidemic reduces investment in the economy in the short and long term, clearly affecting a lot of industrial production fields 3.1.2 Main viewpoints and objectives of tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of Vietnam's international integration up to 2025 and following years 3.1.2.1 Viewpoints on tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of Vietnam international integration up to 2025 and following years Firstly, tradeoriented sustainable development must ensure a balance and harmony between economic, social and environmental benefits, current and future benefits Secondly, tradeoriented sustainable development aiming at building an independent, autonomous economy, taking full advantage of national comparative advantages and taking advantage of the opportunity to gradually deepen and broaden international integration Thirdly, developing trade in a sustainable manner based on attracting the participation and contribution of every level, department and sector of society 3.1.2.2 Main objectives of tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of Vietnam's international integration up to 2025 and following years The overall goal to 2025 is that trade is always an important economic sector with high and stable growth, contributing to economic restructuring towards industrialization, modernization and trade in services. qualification, high quality Firstly, creating a competitive environment, developing social markets with a number of economic sectors, participating within the legal framework; Maintaining price stability, especially for essential goods affecting production and consumption; promoting the process of economic shifting towards industrialization modernization Secondly, promoting the exploitation and development of the domestic commercial market; effectively implementing solutions to ensure supplydemand balance, linking production with distribution of goods, strengthening links in the value chain, focusing on agricultural products. By 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services will reach more than 11 million billion VND; by 2035 about nearly 2.3 million billion. The average annual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and services will reach an average of 14.5% / year to 2035 Thirdly, raising the growth rate of export turnover and import turnover. By 2025, the target is to have export turnover reaching 340 billion USD and import turnover to reach about 330 billion USD. Shifting the export structure towards increasing added value; diversifying export markets, developing towards new generation FTA markets; increase the proportion of processed and manufactured products, products with a high technological and technical content, and promote the export of services Fourthly, tradeoriented sustainable development contributes positively to the harmony and balance between economic growth and development, social justice and environmental protection 3.1.3 Basic orientations for tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of Vietnam international integration up to 2025 and following years Firstly, strengthening the relationship between domestic and international trade development Secondly, developing domestic trade towards building a modern wholesale and retail industry structure, improving competitiveness, ensuring fairness and equality in the context of distribution service market opening Thirdly, developing international trade in the direction of boosting exports to ensure trade balance, strongly shifting the export structure in both goods and markets, and strengthening the management capacity of goods, services that meet the requirements of accelerating the process of 24 industrialization, modernization, domestic market protection, environmental protection and sustainable development Fourthly, focusing on improving the supporting capacity, providing logistic services in commercial activities 3.2 SOME BASIC SOLUTIONS TO TRADEORIENTED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION OF VIETNAM TO 2025 AND NEXT YEARS 3.2.1 General solutions for Tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration in Vietnam 3.2.1.1 Tradeoriented sustainable development with economic benefits Make the best use of our country's comparative advantages in regional and world markets to boost exports. Make full use of available resources of the country, especially labor. Avoiding environmental pollution and overexploitation of natural resources caused by promotion of import and export. Ensuring the positive contribution of trade activities with the goal of creating jobs and reducing poverty. Minimizing risks and dependence on the outside before the fluctuations of economies and world markets 3.2.1.2 Tradeoriented sustainable development with environmental benefits Firstly, finalizing the legal system of State management of environmental trade Secondly, building and finalizing a system of management tools to regulate commercial activities to limit and prevent environmental pollution Thirdly, raising the awareness and professional qualifications of people working in commerce and environmental work, raising public awareness about environmental protection and observing environmental protection regulations 3.2.1.3 Tradeoriented sustainable development with social benefits Firstly, taking control of demographic growth and reducing the pressure on population aging Secondly, developing and perfecting the social security system in a close, balanced relationship with the development and completion of the social care system to meet the increasing demand for service supply of people Thirdly, restructuring the resources to ensure social security Fourthly, innovating and improving the leadership and management capacity in the field of social security 3.2.1.4 Tradeoriented sustainable development with three benefits of economic – environment – social Certain priorities are given to a number of industries and exportoriented production sectors that play an active role in job creation, poverty reduction and stabilization of life, such as: Textile and garment, processing industries, agriculture forestry fishery, handicrafts, etc. However, the State also needs to strictly control exports to meet the requirements of sustainable development, such as: Protection of rare and precious natural resources and animals and literary heritages, forest resources, etc. Currently, a part of the population is living below the poverty line and cannot meet basic needs of accommodation, living, learning and essential supplies. Poverty can also lead to the indiscriminate exploitation, wasteful and irrational use of natural resources; and also lead to the rise of society vices. From the above facts, it is necessary to improve trade policies to support manufacturing and create jobs for lowincome people living in remote and undeveloped areas. 3.2.2. Solutions for tradeoriented sustainable development of domestic trade 3.2.2.1 Ensuring the stability of the supply and demand of goods, especially essential goods, to ensure national food security 3.2.2.2. Ensuring the development of trade in goods in rural, mountainous and border areas etc to boost commodity economy, eradicate hunger and reduce poverty 3.2.2.3 Promoting consumption of domestically produced goods, Vietnamese use Vietnamese goods, quality and standardization Linking circulation with production, promoting product chain link Improving the quality of human resources in commerce Supporting the application of scientific and technological advances Some other policy directions such as continuing administrative reform; publicity, transparency and facilitation of enterprises and business households in the process of tax declaration and payment; 3.2.2.4 Completing policies on domestic trade development to meet the requirements of sustainable development and socialist orientation Firstly, increasing the State's regulatory role in the market and commerce through the continuation of supplementing, amending, perfecting and synchronizing the system of laws and economic policies, renovating the organizational structure and operating mechanism of the State management system on commerce towards the directions: Secondly, formulating a reasonable consumption policy, which is suitable with income, balancing savings and consumption, being scientific, civilized, healthy and at the same time environmentally friendly Thirdly, shaping and reasonably structuring the models of traffic channels and entrepreneur systems on the national scale and in each locality 3.2.3. Solution for tradeoriented sustainable development of import and export 3.2.3.1 Ensuring the trade balance, diversifying markets, limiting dependence on a number of large markets, well exploiting signed commitments to increase export turnover Firstly, the State should have policies to encourage investment in the field of manufacturing supplying raw materials in the country to replace imported sources 26 Secondly, businesses need to continue to restructure exports and export markets Thirdly, preparing to cope with difficulties and challenges 3.2.3.2. Focusing on import quality Determining the structure of import goods and adjusting the volume of imports by tariffs in the direction of prioritizing the import of supplies, equipment and modern technologies to actively serve the production of export goods 3.2.3.3. Focusing on improving the ability to restructure export goods Shifting the economic structure from "raw" to "refined", in the direction of reducing the proportion of raw and semiprocessed products and quickly increasing the proportion of processed and manufactured products in the total export turnover. Prioritizing the development of industries applying high technology to increase sources of exports with high technology content, competitiveness and high added value 3.2.3.4 Improve the value of exports Adjusting and shifting step by step the strategic orientation from the development of production and export of goods by width and high speed towards quality and efficiencyfocused development Making orientation and having initiative policies for enterprises to build and develop value chains for highly competitive goods in the country as a premise and conditions for participation in global value chains CONCLUSION Sustainable development is becoming an inevitable global trend of countries in the world in the context of globalization and international integration The development of trade has contributed positively to the process of economic growth and improved people's lives, and has a multidimensional impact on the human environment at the same time. In particular, the need to develop trade in a sustainable manner has become increasingly urgent for Vietnam in the context of our country's deeper and deeper international integration with the world The dissertation "Tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration" has clarified some of the following contents: 1. Systematizing and clarifying the theory of tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration, contributing to supplementing the development of the theory of sustainable development 2. Analyzing current situation of tradeoriented sustainable development in the context of international integration according to typical criteria developed The dissertation assesses the trade's contributions to the economy, society and the environment; providing issues on trade development towards sustainability in Vietnam in the context of international integration and limited causes Analyzing and forecasting domestic and international situation affecting sustainable trade development in Vietnam in the context of international integration 5. Proposing views, orientations and key solutions for the abovementioned tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration Research still has certain limitations, stemming from objective and subjective difficulties in the research process. Firstly, the concept of trade in the broadest sense still include trade in services, however, the dissertation focuses on researching commodity trade Secondly, quantitative research has only solved some factors, and lacks research conditions to explain all factors affecting tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam in the context of international integration. Third, the limitations of time series data have not fully reflected the impact of factors on tradeoriented sustainable development in Vietnam. These are the issues raised for graduate students themselves and more indepth studies later LIST OF PUBLISHED ARTICLES IN PHD’S TIME WHICH IS RELATED TO THIS TOPIC Le Nguyen Dieu Anh (2017), “The current situation of Vietnam’s exports”, Vietnam Trade and Industry Review, Vol 1, page 5055 Le Nguyen Dieu Anh (2017), “Proposals for sustainable exports in the context of internationalization process”, Vietnam Trade and Industry Review, Vol 2, page 176179 Le Nguyen Dieu Anh (2019), “Solution of developing domestic trade in term of the trend of international integration”, AsiaPacific Economic Review, Vol 547, page 69 71 Le Nguyen Dieu Anh (2019), “Import and export of Vietnamese goods and impacts from US – China trade tensions”, Review of Finance, Vol 710, page 4850 ... 1. 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