Water conflicts related to management of multi-purpose reservoirs in Vu Gia - Thu Bon River Basin

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN THI NHAT ANH WATER CONFLICTS RELATED TO MANAGEMENT OF MULTI-PURPOSE RESERVOIRS IN VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN MASTER'S THESIS Hanoi, June 2019 VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN THI NHAT ANH WATER CONFLICTS RELATED TO MANAGEMENT OF MULTI-PURPOSE RESERVOIRS IN VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: Prof SHIGETO NAKA Assoc Prof MASAKAZU FUKUZUMI Dr NGUYEN NGOC HUY Hanoi, June 2019 CONTENTS Acknowledgments iii Abstract iv List of Abbreviation v List of Tables vi List of Figures viii Introduction 1.1 General topic and research background 1.2 Research objectives 1.3 Research gap and research contribution 1.4 Research scope 1.5 Research methods and framework Conceptual framework and Literature review 2.1 Conceptual framework of Water conflict and Reservoir 2.1.1 Water conflict 2.1.2 Water conflict resolution 2.1.3 Reservoirs 2.2 Research on Water conflicts 10 2.2.1 Research on Water conflicts in Vietnamese river basin 10 2.2.2 Research on water allocation (to find payoff function) 13 2.3 Research on Vu Gia – Thu Bon River Basin 16 2.3.1 Research on VGTB RB related to social or environmental aspects 16 2.3.2 Research on VGTB RB about main water users in VGTB RB 17 Methodology 19 3.1 Theoretical approach 19 3.1.1 Game theory 19 3.1.2 Game theoretical approach can solve conflict 19 3.2 Game theory model 21 3.2.1 Game Tree 21 3.2.2 Profit functions 23 Current situation of water conflict 25 4.1 Context of Vu Gia – Thu Bon River Basin 25 i 4.1.1 Natural conditions 25 4.1.2 Social-economic conditions 26 4.2 Water resources (supply side) 26 4.3 Water consumption (demand side) 28 4.3.1 Hydropower 28 4.3.2 Irrigation 30 4.3.3 Urban water supply 31 4.4 Water balance 33 4.5 Water resource management in VGTB RB 35 4.5.1 Water resource management at basin level in Vietnam 35 4.5.2 Water resource management in VGTB RB 36 4.5.3 Management of reservoir system in VGTB RB 37 4.5.4 Procedure for operation of inter-reservoir system in VGTB RB 38 4.6 Water conflict related to multi-purpose reservoir system 40 Discussion and Policy Recommendation 44 5.1 Finding 44 5.1.1 Game theoretical analysis 44 5.1.2 Analysis of practical model 50 5.1.3 Analysis of modified model 62 5.2 Discussion 67 5.3 Policy recommendation 69 5.4 Limitation and Future research 70 Conclusion 72 Reference 73 Appendix A Data 80 A1 Irrigated water level for paddy 80 A2 Planted area and yield of paddy 81 A3 Scenarios on sharing water from H (based on Procedure 1537) 82 Appendix B Specific examples for Practical model 85 B1 Example 85 B2 Example 86 B3 Example 87 ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Conducting the research is a journey to discover yourself and to develop critical thinking On that journey, supervisors and companions are indispensable Firstly, I am particularly grateful for the assistance given by my supervisors for his valuable and constructive suggestions during the planning and development of this research work Assistance provided by Naka Shigeto Sensei, which gave me great inspiration and led me to the academic world, was greatly appreciated The knowledge I learned from Fukuzumi Masakazu Sensei in game theory gave me a great and attractive economic tool to build my original model Lastly, with his rich practical experience, Nguyen Ngoc Huy Sensei helped me understand a great deal more about the reality of the water sector in Vietnam In this journey, I was also fortunate to be instructed by lecturers at Vietnam Japan University and to be able to discuss with other researchers from VACI 2019 I would like to offer my special thanks to Mr Yoshifumi Hino in the MBA program, Mr Koshi Yoshida and Mr Makoto Tamura in the MCCD program helped me gain a lot of knowledge about water, hydropower and game theory In addition, I am grateful for the assistance given by Mr Dao Trong Tu for helping me to understand the water resource management Moreover, I would like to thank the MPP program and VJU for creating what I think is the most favorable academic environment Here, I had opportunities to discuss with my colleagues, who were always willing to listen to even the vaguest ideas of mine Finally, I would like to express my sincere thanks to my lovely family and my enthusiastic friends, without whose endless motivations and support this work would have been impossible iii ABSTRACT Water conflict is becoming an urgent problem over the world because of rapid economic development leading to the rapid increase of water demand, and global climate change to the decrease of water availability in season dry This study is about water conflict occurring in Vu Gia - Thu Bon river basin among three main water users: hydropower reservoirs in upstream as well as an irrigation system and urban water supply in downstream In order to understand deeply their interactions, this study builds a game theoretical model to describe the current conflict and their benefits in exploiting water From the general model, the practical model is calculated by secondary data and then is modified with water right weight and average values The initial results are that although the profitability for the whole agricultural sector is the largest, the average value is negligible In contrast, the profitability of hydropower and water supply companies is lower but more concentrated In the perspectives of policymakers, it is essential to analyse the movement of each player, consider the total payoff values and use control variables as “refund” and “punishment” to adjust some water user’s behaviors iv LIST OF ABBREVIATION Abbreviation Meaning HPP Hydropower Plant WTP Water Plant VGTB Vu Gia – Thu Bon RB River basin RBO River basin organization DAWACO Da Nang Water Supply Company NE Nash equilibrium SPNE Subgame perfect Nash equilibrium MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade v LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1: Similarities of water conflict and game theory 20 Table 4.1: Water flow of dry season and flood season in VGTB RB 27 Table 4.2: Irrigation system of VGTB RB 31 Table 4.3: Capacity of main water plants of DAWACO 33 Table 4.4: Water supply-demand gap index of VGTB RB 34 Table 4.5: Water exploitation index of VGTB RB 34 Table 4.6: River basin organisations in VGTB RB 37 Table 4.7: Main documents for procedure for operation of inter-reservoir system in VGTB 39 Table 4.8: Changes in water resources of Vu Gia River 43 Table 5.1: Matrix of Sub-game in general model 44 Table 5.2: Matrix of Sub-game in general model 45 Table 5.3: Outcomes of VGTB game’s example model 48 Table 5.4: The basis to calculate M-value of H (hydropower plants) 51 Table 5.5: Profit of hydropower plants in VGTB game’s practical model 51 Table 5.6: The basis to calculate M-value of I (irrigation system) 53 Table 5.7: Profit of Irrigation in VGTB game’s practical model 53 Table 5.8: M-value of H, I and C 54 Table 5.9: Guaranteed value for water demand of downstream 55 Table 5.10: Total sharing water from three hydropower reservoirs in three scenarios 56 Table 5.11: Outcomes of VGTB game’s practical model 58 Table 5.12: Outcomes of VGTB game’s practical model (example) 58 vi Table 5.13: M-value of three players with water right weight (γ) based on average profit 62 Table 5.14: Outcomes of VGTB game’s modified model 64 Table 5.15: Outcomes of VGTB game’s modified model (example) 64 Table 5.16: Social payoff in general model, practical model and modified model (𝓥𝑺𝑾) 65 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Research framework based on the demand side and supply side Figure 2.1: Four dimensions of resources scarcity Figure 3.1: Game tree with three players 21 Figure 5.1: Irrigation planning map of Quang Nam province 46 Figure 5.2: Game tree with dominant strategies and value of payoffs of general model 47 Figure 5.3: Game tree with dominant strategies and value of payoffs of practical model 57 Figure 5.4: Payoffs of C - 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Thu WS crop 582 1216 1631 790 SA crop WS crop 10 11 12 0 1169 0 1047 0 1249 2132 1973 1857 1717 0 0 2759 1797 1754 1096 48 591 1255 1716 992 SA crop 2297 1073 1975 1739 129 WS crop 1157 1223 1997 1226 SA crop 0 0 Bon river basin Source: (Viện Quy hoạch Thủy Lợi, 2017) Note: WS crop: Winter-spring crop; SA crop: Summer-autumn crop 0 A2 Planted area and yield of paddy Nam Giang Winter-spring crop Summerautumn crop Planted area of paddy (ha) Yield of paddy (ton) Planted area of paddy (ha) Yield of paddy (ton) Upstream of Vu Gia river Phuoc Son Tây Giang Đông Giang 378 493 460 425 4,301 1501 2021 1,327 1,594 26,890 2047 915 994 1,370 4,300 3683 2258 2,300 3,325 26,064 Upstream of Thu Bon river Hiep Duc Que Son Winter-spring crop Summerautumn crop Planted area of paddy (ha) Yield of paddy (ton) Planted area of paddy (ha) Yield of paddy (ton) Source: QSO 2017 Đại Lộc Downstream of VGTB RB Duy Xuyên Điện Bàn TP Hội An 1310 3783 3658.6 5644.12 374.2 7162 20693 22713 35005 2414 984 3082 3796.2 5657.04 345.2 5182 16737 22343 30213 2071 A3 Scenarios on sharing water from H (based on Procedure 1537) Scenario 1: HAN < 2.67m Month 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 25 25 12.5 12.5 12.5 Hours (h) 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Flow (m3/s) 22 22 22 22 18 18 30 30 28 28 28 Hours (h) 24 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Flow (m3/s) 35 40 40 40 35 35 55 55 40 40 40 Hours (h) 24 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 186 105 116.5 124.55 124.55 Dry season Flow (m3/s) Dak Mi A Vuong Song Bung WS crop (106 m3) SA crop (106 m3) 105.0 156.2 138.6 Source: summary from Procedure 1537 The period of increased water use: Article 16.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 16.2a (A Vuong), Article 16.3a (Song Bung 4) The period of normal water use: Article 17.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 17.2a (A Vuong), Article 17.3a (Song Bung 4) Scenario 2: 2.67m < HAN < 2.8m Month Flow (m3/s) 8 8 8 12.5 12.5 8 Hours (h) 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Flow (m3/s) 18 18 18 18 15 15 25 25 24 24 24 Hours (h) 24 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Flow (m3/s) 30 25 25 25 23 23 43 43 28 28 28 Hours (h) 24 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 150 71.4 79 91 91 Dry season Dak Mi A Vuong Song Bung WS crop (106 m3) SA crop (106 m3) 72.2 107.7 98.9 Source: Summary from Procedure 1537 The period of increased water use: Article 16.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 16.2b (A Vuong), Article 16.3b (Song Bung 4) The period of normal water use: Article 17.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 17.2b (A Vuong), Article 17.3b (Song Bung 4) Scenario 3: HAN > 2.8m Month Dry season Flow (m3/s) Dak Mi (only) Hours (h) WS crop (10 m ) SA crop (106 m3) 3 24 8.0 24 7.3 24 8.0 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 7.8 11.7 9.5 8.0 8.0 Source: summary from Procedure 1537 The period of increased water use: Article 16.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 16.2c (A Vuong), Article 16.3c (Song Bung 4) The period of normal water use: Article 17.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 17.2c (A Vuong), Article 17.3c (Song Bung 4)  In case the water level at Ai Nghia hydrological station is greater than 2.8 m, based on the current water level of the reservoir and the flow's forecast in average 10-day to decide the proper operation of the reservoir This article is applicable to A Vuong and Song Bung reservoirs Note Flood season, from September to December 15 The period of increased water use in dry season, from May 11 to June 10 The period of normal water use in dry season, for the rest of the year APPENDIX B SPECIFIC EXAMPLES FOR PRACTICAL MODEL B1 Example Assumptions ′ 𝜎𝐶𝐼 = 50%𝑝𝐻−𝑀 µ′𝐶𝐼 = 50%𝑝𝐻−𝑀 ′ ′ 𝜎𝐶/𝐼 = 𝜎𝐶/𝐼 = 1/2 × 𝜎𝐶𝐼 µ𝐶/𝐼 = µ′𝐶/𝐼 = 1/2 × µ′𝐶𝐼 Value of variables Value ′ 𝜎𝐶𝐼 𝜎𝐶 = 𝜎𝐶′ 𝜎𝐼 = 𝜎𝐼′ µ′𝐶𝐼 µ𝐶 = µ′𝐶 µ𝐼 = µ′𝐼 173 86.5 86.5 173 86.5 86.5 Value of outcome table 𝒱𝐻 𝒱𝐶 𝒱𝐼 O1 173 73.5 822.5 O2 86.5 73.5 909 O3 86.5 160 822.5 O4 160 909 O5 346 0 O6 259.5 86.5 O7 259.5 86.5 O8 173 86.5 86.5 B2 Example Assumptions ′ 𝜎𝐶𝐼 = 40%𝑝𝐻−𝑀 µ′𝐶𝐼 = 61%𝑝𝐻−𝑀 ′ ′ 𝜎𝐶/𝐼 = 𝜎𝐶/𝐼 = 1/2 × à/ = à/ = 1/2 ì Value of variables Value ′ 𝜎𝐶𝐼 𝜎𝐶 = 𝜎𝐶′ 𝜎𝐼 = 𝜎𝐼′ µ′𝐶𝐼 µ𝐶 = µ′𝐶 µ𝐼 = µ′𝐼 138.4 69.2 69.2 211.06 105.53 105.53 Value of outcome table O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 𝒱𝐻 𝒱𝐶 𝒱𝐼 138.4 90.8 839.8 69.2 90.8 909 69.2 160 839.8 160 909 346 0 240.47 105.53 240.47 105.53 134.94 105.53 105.53 B3 Example Assumptions ′ 𝜎𝐶𝐼 = 61%𝑝𝐻−𝑀 µ′𝐶𝐼 = 40%𝑝𝐻−𝑀 ′ ′ 𝜎𝐶/𝐼 = 𝜎𝐶/𝐼 = 1/2 × 𝜎𝐶𝐼 µ𝐶/𝐼 = µ′𝐶/𝐼 = 1/2 × µ′𝐶𝐼 Value of variables Value ′ 𝜎𝐶𝐼 𝜎𝐶 = 𝜎𝐶′ 𝜎𝐼 = 𝜎𝐼′ µ′𝐶𝐼 µ𝐶 = µ′𝐶 µ𝐼 = µ′𝐼 138.4 69.2 69.2 211.06 105.53 105.53 Value of outcome table O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 𝓥𝑯 211.06 105.53 105.53 346 276.8 276.8 207.6 𝓥𝑪 54.47 54.47 160 160 0 69.2 69.2 𝓥𝑰 803.47 909 803.47 909 69.2 69.2