The BRICS and collective financial statecraft

THE BRICS AND COLLECTIVE FINANCIAL STATECRAFT The BRICS and Collective Financial Statecraft Cynthia Roberts, Leslie Elliott Armijo, and Saori N Katada Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America © Oxford University Press 2018 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Roberts, Cynthia A (Professor of political science), author | Armijo, Leslie Elliott, author | Katada, Saori N., author Title: The BRICS and collective financial statecraft / Cynthia Roberts, Leslie Elliott Armijo and Saori N Katada Description: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2018] | Includes bibliographical references and index Identifiers: LCCN 2017004727 (print) | LCCN 2017022767 (ebook) | ISBN 9780190697532 (updf) | ISBN 9780190697549 (epub) | ISBN 9780190697556 (online content) | ISBN 9780190697518 (cloth) | ISBN 9780190697525 (pbk.) Subjects: LCSH: BRIC countries—Foreign economic relations | BRIC countries—Foreign relations | Balance of power Classification: LCC HC59.7 (ebook) | LCC HC59.7 R559 2018 (print) | DDC 337—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017004727 For Andrew, Kay, Zubin Prescott, and Chitra Marguerite Contents List of Figures List of Tables Acknowledgments Acronyms List Introduction: The BRICS as a Club BRICS in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis Strategic Incentives in Unipolarity and Common Aversions The BRICS and the Global Governance System Formal Institutions and Informal Powers: The Emergence of Clubs The BRICS as a Club Clubs with Power Asymmetries and Dominant Powers with Outside Options Plan of the Book Global Power Shift: The BRICS, Building Capabilities for Influence Conceptualizing Power Measuring the Shift in Economic Capabilities A New, Multipolar World? The Global Financial and Monetary Capabilities of the BRICS Redback Rising Conclusion BRICS Collective Financial Statecraft: Four Cases Defining Collective Financial Statecraft Four Categories of Collective Financial Statecraft Inside Reforms: The BRICS Quest for Greater Influence within the IMF and World Bank (Case 1) Inside Reforms: Resist Manipulation of Financial Market Power for U.S./Western Political Aims (Case 2) Outside Options: Create Parallel Financial Institutions Controlled by the BRICS (Case 3) Outside Options: Diminish Dollar Dominance and Build the Financial Market Power of the RMB (Case 4) Future Directions and Cooperative Opportunities Not Taken Conclusion: Mostly Successful BRICS Collective Financial Statecraft Motives for BRICS Collaboration: Views from the Five Capitals Six Propositions The View from Beijing: In Search of Legitimacy and Unthreatening Leadership The View from Moscow: Russia’s Struggle for Autonomy and International Influence The View from New Delhi: Amplifying Voice and Anticipating Multipolarity The View from Brasília: Enhancing Status and Inviting Investment The View from Pretoria: Support for Growth and Regional Leadership Conclusion: Explaining BRICS Collaboration Conclusion: Whither the BRICS? BRICS and World Order: Too Much Pessimism Is Unwarranted Growth: The Essential Need to Return to the BRICS’ Roots The Tension Between Formal and Informal Rules Summing up: The BRICS, Collective Financial Statecraft, and the Multipolar Future NOTES INDEX List of Figures 2.1 Shares of World GDP (MER, %): BRICS, G7, EU, China, and United States 2.2 Combined GDP (PPP): BRICS, G7, China, and US, 2000–2020 2.3 Combined GDP (MER): BRICS, G7, China, and US, 2000–2020 2.4 GDP Growth: BRICS (% Change, Year on Year) 2000–2020 3.1 Ratio of IMF Quota Shares (%) to Share of World GDP (MER, %): BRICS, G7, and EU, 2005–2020 3.2 Ratio of IMF Quota Shares (%) to Share of World GDP (PPP, %): BRICS, G7, and EU, 2005–2020 3.3 GDP Blend and IMF Quota Shares: BRICS, G7, and EU, 2005–2020 3.4 GDP Blend and IMF Quota Shares: Individual BRICS, 2005–2020 3.5 Ratio of IMF Quota Shares (%) to Share of World GDP (MER, %): Individual BRICS, 2005–2020 3.6 Ratio of IMF Quota Shares (%) to Share of World GDP (PPP, %): Individual BRICS, 2005–2020 3.7 Voting Shares in AIIB 3.8 Nominal Exchange Rate Movements against U.S Dollar: BRICS, 2009– 2015 5.1 BRICS Institutional Quality Index Versus Log GDP per Capita List of Tables 1.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Typology of BRICS Club Policies Global Defense Rankings and Trends, 1993–2016 Stock Markets: G7 and BRICS Structure and Performance of Domestic Finance: G5 and BRICS Rankings of Domestic Financial Development: G5 and BRICS Indicators of External Openness: G5 and BRICS Transitions in Global Trade, Financial, and Monetary Capabilities: G5 and BRICS 2.7 Rankings of G7 and BRICS Global Financial Centers 3.1 Conceptualizing International Financial Statecraft 3.2 Varieties of Collective Financial Statecraft: Types of Actions and Venues Acknowledgments spans four continents and three co-authors working in different cities incurs a lot of debts to those who supported this project We thank the government officials and other informed observers from the private and public sectors in the BRICS countries and in the United States who spoke to us on background and wish to remain anonymous In addition, we are grateful to the many economists and officials at international financial institutions and think tanks who devoted many hours to help us better understand the intricacies of the issues explored in this study, including Kausik Basu, Jin Zhongxia, Aleksei Mozhin, Andreas Bauer, Andrew Baukol, Simeon Djankov, David Dollar, Indermit Gill, Sergei Guriev, Birgit Hansl, Branko Milanovic, José Antonio Ocampo, Eswar Prasad, Markus Rodlauer, David Rosenblatt, and Sergei Shatalov North American and Europe-based academics whom we thank for their help in understanding BRICS financial statecraft and the international political economy include Gregory Chin, Benjamin J Cohen, Barbara Fritz, Eric Hershberg, Andrew Hurrell, Jonathan Kirshner, Laura Carsten Maurenbach, Daniel McDowell, Laurissa Muehlich, Mihaela Papa, Daniel C Tirone, and Hongying Wang We are also grateful to many officials in Russia, members of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and other knowledgeable observers who were generous with their time and offered important insights, especially Ambassadors Vadim Lukov, Aleksandr Kramarenko, and Georgii Toloraia; Vladimir Mau, Andrei Kortunov, Leonid Grigoriev, Alexander Gabuev, Mikhail Golovnin, Igor Yurgens, Marina Larionova, Feodor Lukyanov, Robin Lewis, and Natalya Volchkova We also thank scholars from or based in China, especially Ren Xiao, Wang Jisi, Wang Yong, and Zhu Feng; and those from or based in Japan, including Hyoung-kyu Chey, Masahiro Kawai, Eisuke Sakakibara, Toshiya Tsugami, and Tatsuya Yoshizaki Our indebtedness to Brazilians and Brazilianists who contributed their valuable time and critical insights encompasses Adriana E Abdenur, the Worney Amoedo family, Luis Antonio Balduino, Renato C Baumann, Luiz A BOOK THAT 186n116 Morozkina, A K., 205n28, 205n32, 223n124 Morris, Scott, 211nn132–33 Motlanthe, Kgalema, 157 Mozhin, Aleksei, 84, 206n58 MSCI See Morgan Stanley Capital International Mukerjee, Pranab, 145 multilateral development banks, 98 multipolarity, 1, 5, 26, 27, 37, 64, 81, 82, 125, 130, 139, 197n67, 204n24 multipolarity index (World Bank), 197n67 multipolarization, 25 Mumbai, promoted as financial center, 142, 143 Mundell, Robert A., 61, 135, 202n152, 226n166 Mutafchieva, Mina, 196–97nn60–61 mutually beneficial cooperation, 10 Mwase, Nkunde, 237n47 NAB See New Arrangements to Borrow Nabiullina, Elvira, 128 Nadkarni, Vidya, 227n186 Nageswaran, V Anantha, 234n9 Naidu, Sanusha, 232n275 NAM See Non-Aligned Movement Narlikar, Amrita, 191nn104–5 Natarajan, Gulzar, 234n9 National Intelligence Council (US), 28 National Petroleum Corp (China), 91, 136 National Science Foundation, 199n106 National Wealth Fund, 131–132 NATO See North Atlantic Treaty Organization Naughton, Barry, 234n16, 235n18, 235n24 NDA See New Democratic Alliance NDB See New Development Bank Nehru, Jawaharlal, 139, 140 Nene, Nhlanhla, 160 neoliberalism, 75, 86–86, 115, 154, 157, 176 NEPAD See New Partnership for African Development Nesvetailova, Anastasia, 216n25 network power, 27 New Arrangements to Borrow, 76 New Democratic Alliance (India), 140 New Development Bank, 4, 10, 19, 20, 21, 23, 39, 70, 71, 113, 116, 120, 121, 139, 141–142, 162, 179, 211n118, 217n37, 219n65; AIIB and, 95; BRICS’ reaction to, 94, 97; China’s financial backing of, 97; founding of, 94, 95, 99, 107; funding renewable energy projects, 96; impetus for, 57; issuing bonds in national currencies, 96; leadership of, 94–95, 143–144; loans from, 95–97; location of, 94, 143, 147; South Africa and, 160; voting shares in, 94 New International Economic Order, 14, 140 Newnham, Randall, 225n160 New Partnership for African Development, 162 NGOs See nongovernmental organizations NIC See National Intelligence Council NIEO See New International Economic Order Nikonov, V A., 222n114 Niu Xinchun, 198n95 Nixon, Richard, 9, 139 Noble, Josh, 229n223 Nölke, Andreas, 238n62 Non-Aligned Movement, 140 nongovernmental organizations, 141, 227n196 nonintervention, as foreign policy, 140, 151, 156 Norrlof, Carla, 52, 194n25, 200n126 North, Douglass C., 236n36 North American Free Trade Agreement, 18 North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 14, 42, 125 North-South production sharing, 38 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 144 NWF See National Wealth Fund Nye, Joseph S., Jr., 14, 26, 189n64, 190nn86–87, 190n89, 192n1, 193n10, 193n13, 238n58 Oatley, Thomas, 194n19 Obama, Barack, 13, 76, 131, 132, 212n138, 215n9 Obama administration, 17, 76, 85, 88, 90, 108, 131, 168, 204n22, 212n138 OBOR See One Belt, One Road Obstfeld, Maurice, 207n72 Ocampo, José Antonio, 84, 149, 207n61 ODI See Overseas Development Institute Odling-Smee, John, 188n52 OECD See Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development offense, financial statecraft used for, 68–69, 133 offense-defense mix, in financial statecraft, 137–138 Oi, Jean C., 235n Okonjo-Iweala, Ngozi, 84, 160 Oksenberg, Michel, 215n13 Olson, Mancur, 190n76, 190n79 One Belt, One Road initiative (China), 20, 38, 39, 41, 60, 65, 97, 116, 137, 147, 211n125 O’Neill, Jim, 1–2, 32, 183n3, 184n6, 185n17, 195n39 openness, affecting IMF quotas, 75 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 33 organized hypocrisy, 13 Organski, A F K., 188n61 Orlov, Vladimir A., 191n99 Orwell, George, 25 Ostry, Jonathan D., 207nn71–72 outside options, vii, viii, 5, 12, 18–20, 22–23, 33, 69, 70–71, 80, 92, 96, 100, 106, 108, 111, 119, 124, 147, 152, 165, 167, 178–181, 184n14, 192n113, 192n115, 217n37 Ouyang Yao, 210n111 Overseas Development Institute, 97 Owyang, Michael T., 223n128 Page, Frank H., 190n79 Palan, Ronen, 216n25 Palifka, Bonnie J., 237n42 Paltseva, Elena, 192n112 Pan Rongfang, 220n85 Panda, Jagannath, 213n166 panda bonds, 62 Pandey, Arpana, 226n177 Panova, Viktoriya, 222n116 Pan Wei, 218n53 Papa, Mihaela, 208n77 Parasarathy, G., 228n214 Parshin, Alexey, 209n97 Patrick, Stewart, 189n63 Paul, T V., 188n60 Paulson, Henry M., Jr., 138, 226n180 Pauly, Louis W., 191n98, 218n52 PBOC See People’s Bank of China peaceful rise, 9, 19, 121 Pearson, Margaret M., 215n15, 216n18, 234n16 Pei, Minxin, 235n20, 236n38 Pennock, Andrew, 194n19 People’s Bank of China, 85, 101, 103 Pereira, Carlos, 231n250 performance legitimacy, 220n81 Perlez, Jane, 229n225, 237n48 persuasion, 80 Petrobras, 100, 153–156 Peyrouse, Sebastien, 206n52 Pilling, David, 221nn96–97, 232n279 Pimentel, Lester, 205nn43–44 Pinchuk, Denis, 209n91 Pismennaia, Evgenia, 226n175 Pistor, Katharina, 237n45 PNB See Batista, Paulo Nogueira Popescu, Nicu, 225n164 Porter, Tony, 203n8 Posen, Barry R., 198n100, 199n108 power, 64; competition and, 27; conceptualizing, 25–28; diffusion of, 8, 10, 11, 14, 25, 28–29; relational, 26–27, 44; shifts in, 10–11; structural, 5, 7, 13, 19, 22, 25–28, 44, 64, 65, 66, 69, 130, 138 Power, Timothy J., 231n250 power-as-autonomy, 119 Power of Siberia gas pipeline, 132, 136 Prasad, Eswar S., 33, 82, 142, 143, 195n44, 200nn130–31, 201n143, 202n155, 202n158, 202n166, 212n145, 213n159, 228n199 preponderant powers, 27 Prevezer, Martha, 175, 237n44 Priess, David, 11–12, 189n71, 214n179 Primakov, Yevgeny, 125 Pritchett, Lant, 33, 196nn46–47, 235n23, 236n37 Przeworski, Adam, 170, 234n12 PT See Workers’ Party, Brazil Pu, Xiaoyu, 186n40, 186n72, 193n5, 216n26 public goods, 9, 12, 14, 41, 119–121 Purushothaman, Roopa, 183n3 Putin, Vladimir, 80, 89, 90, 91, 100, 103, 125–126, 128, 132–138, 176, 186n30, 209nn95–96, 222n110, 222n117, 225n151, 225nn155–56, 226n174 Putnam, Robert D., 190n87, 191n97 Putnam, Tonya L., 189n69 QFII See Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors Qian Qichen, 216n28 Qin Yaqing, 217n35 Qobo, Mzukisi, 210n111, 232n272, 233n287 Quad incumbent powers, 16–17 Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (China), 50 quantitative easing, 101 Qu Hongbin, 202n149 Quin, Fang, 220n84 Rachinsky, Andrei, 223n130 Ragavan, Srinath, 227n186 Raile, Eric D., 231n250 Rajan, Raghuram G., 62, 85, 142–143, 147, 200n127, 216n21 Ram, Yidya, 206n57 Ramo, Joshua Cooper, 234n14 rating agencies, BRICS’ challenge to, 106 Raustiala, Kal, 219n64 RBI See Reserve Bank of India Rector, Chad, 215n15, 216n18 redback, 26 See also renminbi Reddy, V K., 93, 142, 143, 227n198 regionalism, regional power, Reisen, Helmut, 211n118 relational power, 26–27, 44 relative capabilities, power as, 64 relative capability shift thesis, 237n38n54 renminbi (RMB; China), 26, 56; bilateral currency swaps in, 115; devaluation of, 105; future of, 59–65; Indian concerns about, 146–148; internationalization of, 3, 20, 59–62, 65, 72, 86, 92, 100–105, 107, 122, 146, 147, 161, 177, 179; markets in, 105; pressures on, 195n44; prominence of, growing, 213n159; as reserve currency, 20; revaluation of, 114; included in the SDR, 85, 101, 104, 123, 146 Renminbi-Qualified Institutional Investors (China), 50, 63 Ren Xiao, 124, 188n58, 206n56, 218n44, 221n93 research and development (R&D) spending, 42 Reserve Bank of India, 62 reserve currencies, 101 RESh See Russian Economic School resistance, soft forms of, 25 responsible stakeholder, 9, 81, 119 revisionist, 8, 11, 12, 88, 110, 123, 124, 125, 167, 180, 181 Reznik, Irina, 226n172 RICs See Russia-India-China Ringel, Michael, 198n91 rise of the rest, 178 “rise from within” strategies, 12 rising powers, 27 RMB See renminbi Roach, Stephen S., 194n26, 196n52 Roberts, Cynthia A., 184n8, 184n13, 185n14, 186n26, 186nn28–29, 186n31, 188n60, 191nn99–100, 195n31, 214n177, 219n71, 221nn101–3, 226n174 Robinson, James A., 236n36 Robles, Theresa, 210n114, 228n205 Rodlauer, Markus, 200n129 Rodrik, Dani, 170, 199n109, 200n128, 207n69, 234n12, 235n21 Romero, Simon, 210n113 Rose, Scott, 213n155 Rose-Ackerman, Susan, 237n42 Rosen, Daniel H., 193n8 Rosenberg, Elizabeth, 209nn92–93, 224n144 Rosneft, 89, 90, 91, 132, 136 Rossi, Clóvis, 230n240 Rota, Valerie, 205nn43–44 Rothstein, Robert L., 190n90 Roubini, Nouriel, 226n166 Rousseff, Dilma, 100, 148, 153–155, 231n258 Rousseff government (Brazil), 149, 152, 156 RQFII See Renminbi-Qualified Institutional Investors Rubin, Robert, 129, 191n99 ruble: collapse of, 88, 100; devaluation of, 8, 129–130; internationalization of, 135–136, 166; role of, 8, 101, 130 Ruggie, John Gerard, 10, 188nn54–55 rule of law, 174 Rule of Law Index, 172 rules See formal rules; informal rules rupee, internationalization of, 62 Russia: AIIB and, 100; arms sales by, 91; autonomy of, 130–133; bond market in, 129; bond maturities in, 50; and Bretton Woods institutions, return to, 75, 127; business investments in, 49; capital controls in, 86–87; capital markets in, 50; Central Bank in, 127; chairing BRICS, 70; China’s rise and, 127, 135–137; collective financial statecraft for, as counteroffensives, 132; commercial banks in, 50; considered too big to fail, 129; corporate governance in, 175; and creation of BRICS, 17; crony capitalism in, 130; currency of, 7, 128–130, 135–136 (See also ruble); default of, 129; diminishing US economic and financial power, 138; economic performance of, 28, 29, 31–33, 125–126, 129, 130, 131, 135–136; economic statecraft of, unilateral, 135; economic structure of, 131; embargoing Western food products, 134; in Eurobond markets, 89; financial centers in, 59; financial openness of, 52–53, 54; financial reforms in, 130; financial statecraft of, 126–138, 133; fiscal policies of, 130; foreign bond ownership in, 54; foreign currency reserves of, 130–131, 137; foreign investment in, 132; foreign policy of, 4, 23; free-floating exchange rate in, 131; in the G8, 17; geopolitical influence of, 41; global investment and, 38, 126; globalization and, 130; hiring Western economists and consultants, 128; holdings of, in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities, 137–138; IMF and, 9, 76, 77, 81, 83–84, 168; imperialist positions of, 189n65; institutional quality of, 174; international partnerships of, 125, 126; international payments system in, 62; international reserves of, 213n156; intervening in Ukraine (see Ukraine, Russian intervention in); as joiner, 9–10; joining G7, 15–16; military capabilities of, 37, 42; motivations of, for BRICS participation, 126–138; national payment card system in, 91–92; oil futures markets in, 136; recession in, 36; regional position of, 127, 133–135; relations with China, 90–91, 100, 136–138; renationalization of business in, 131; resilience of, 1, 131; sanctions against, 7, 23, 71, 88–92, 107, 126, 128, 131–134; share of, in the world economy, 127; sovereign debt and, 132; sovereignty of, 130–133; state capitalism in, 130; stock exchanges in, 48; SWIFT and, 132–133; transforming BRICS, 125, 126, 127; US debt holdings of, 103; workforce in, 36; Z-scores in, 50 Russia-India-China, 125 Russian Economic School, 78 Rutland, Peter, 223n124 Ryabkov, Sergei, 17, 191n107 Sadovnichii, V A., 222n114 SAFE See State Administration of Foreign Exchange SAFE Investment Company, 120 SAIIA See South African Institute of International Affairs Sambo, Paula, 231n262 sanctions, 4; BRICS’ aversion to, (See also Russia: sanctions against); effectiveness of, 88–91 Sandler, Todd, 190nn74–78 Santos, Lean Alfred, 233n285 Saraiva, Miriam Gomes, 230n241, 230n244 Saran, Shyam, 146, 227n189, 229n221 Sardar Samovar Dam (India), 141 Sarkozy, Nicolas, 16, 86 Sarney, José, 150 Saunders, Phillip C., 220–21n92 Saxonhouse, Gary, 192n116 Schelling, Thomas, 91, 226n174 Schmemann, Serge, 192n1 Schmucker, Claudia, 218n46 Schneider, Ben Ross, 236n31 Schott, Jeffrey, 203n3 Schweller, Randall L., 11–12, 186n40, 187n41, 189nn71–72, 193n5, 214n179, 216n26 SCO See Shanghai Cooperation Organization SDR See Special Drawing Rights SDR-denominated bonds, 81 SDRM See Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism security dilemma, 69 Sen, Amartya, 228n213 Seoul Development Consensus for Shared Growth, 121 Serra, José, 156 Setser, Brad W., 65, 189n62, 193n8, 202n165, 226n177, 226n181 Sevastopulo, Demetri, 211n135 Shambaugh, David, 124, 186n30, 186n34, 218n52, 221n95 Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 11, 118, 147, 168 Shankar, Kalyani, 227n187 Shao Binhong, 192n117, 202n157, 202n167, 233n7 shared goods, 12 Shared Growth Agenda, 118 shares and chairs negotiations, 72–80, 107 Sharma, Ruchir, 195n45 Sharma, Shyam, 146 Sheel, Alok, 145, 228n211 Sheng Hong, 235n17 Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect, 48 shirkers, in global governance system, 8, 10–11 Shi Yinhong, 216n28, 233n3 Shleifer, Andrei, 222n120, 236n38 Sidiropoulos, Elizabeth, 231n267, 232n275 Siliuanov, Anton, 78 Silk Road, 97 Silk Road Fund (China), 91, 97 Silver, Mick, 205n31 Simmons, Beth A., 5, 203n5, 238n59 Singh, Anoop, 229n218 Singh, Manmohan, 94, 121, 139, 140, 142, 228n207 Singhal, Rajrishi, 229n217 Singh government (India), 142 Single Economic Space, 133 Sinha, Aseema, 227n185, 227n191 SIPRI See Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Slaughter, Anne Marie, 17, 190n87 Smyth, Jamie, 232n277 Snidal, Duncan D., 186n27, 187n43, 237n53 Snowden, Edward, 63 Snyder, Jack, 186n30, 209n100, 238n61 Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) network, 60, 62–63, 72, 91, 92, 106, 144, 169 SOEs See state-owned enterprises soft-balancing, 151, 156 soft power, 26, 43 soft rules, 177 Sohn, Injoo, 218n45, 218n49 Soko, Mills, 210n111, 232n272 Solovyev, Vladimir, 225n151 South Africa, 2, 4; anticolonialism of, 157; bond maturities in, 50; Bretton Woods institutions and, 159; BRICS involvement of, 161–162; business investments in, 49; corruption in, 172; domestic financial development in, 50–52; economic weakness of, 36; financial openness of, 54; foreign bond ownership in, 54; foreign policy of, 23, 157; on global financial governance, 159–161; industrialization of, 172; influence in, competition for, 157; institutional quality of, 174; joining BRICS, 158–159; motives of, for BRICS participation, 157–162; opposing Russian sanctions, 161; quota shares of, in IMF, 76, 78; relations with China, 100, 157–158; relations with India, 157; on RMB internationalization, 161 South African Airlines, 160 South African Institute of International Affairs, 159 South China Sea, 11, 41, 97, 115 South Korea: economic performance of,34; R&D spending in, 42 South-South cooperation, 23, 121, 149, 150, 158 Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism, 106 sovereignty, BRICS’ sensitivity to, 176 See also autonomy sovereignty hawks, 6, 110, 144 sovereign wealth funds, 63, 97, 103, 120, 137 Soviet Union, collapse of, 5, 9–10, 125, 127–128 S&P See Standard & Poor’s Special Drawing Rights, 18, 50; composition of, 104, 135; expansion of, 62; RMB in, 61, 62, 101, 104 (See also renminbi) Spence, Michael, 235n21 Spiegel, Peter, 229n233 spoilers, in global governance system, 8, 10–11, 181 Spratt, Stephen, 233n4 Stalin, Joseph, 186n30 Standard Chartered, 200n122 Standard & Poor’s, 72, 106, 155 Starrs, Sean, 40, 198n90 State Administration of Foreign Exchange (China), 81 state-owned enterprises, 34, 35, 123, 168, 171 state power, types of, 69 Steil, Benn, 186n38, 203n2, 206n49 Stein, Arthur A., 186n27 Steinberg, Richard H., 13, 190n80, 214n1, 215n6 Steinfeld, Edward, 234n15 Stent, Angela E., 221n103 Stephen, Matthew, 227n191 Stern, Nicholas, 93–94, 210n110 Stiglitz, Joseph, 93–94, 210n110 Stiglitz Commission (UNGA), 93, 142 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 198n101, 199n103 stock markets, 45–48 Stolper, Antonia E., 229n232 Stone, Randall W., 129, 189n66, 190n80, 190n82, 192n114, 214n1, 223n126, 223n128, 238n59 Storchak, Sergei, 83, 103 Strange, Susan, 27, 193nn15–16, 194n18 Strategy 2020 (Russian government), 136 Strauss-Kahn, Dominique, 76, 83, 84, 206nn57–58 structural power, 13, 19, 27, 64, 69 Stuenkel, Oliver, 230n235, 230n243 Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 189n67 Subbarao, Duvvari, 146 Subramanian, Arvind, 195n43, 196n, 201n134, 204n11, 206n50, 213n158 Summers, Lawrence, 33, 93, 99, 129, 167, 181, 196n47, 233n1, 235n23, 236n37 Sun Xian, 237n45 Sun Yun, 212n140 Sundria, S., 227n192 Sung Eun Kim, 186n33 SWFs See sovereign wealth funds SWIFT.See Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication Taiwan, Tammen, Ronald L., 188n61 Tang Heiwai, 197nn74–75 Tang Lingxiao, 210n111 Taylor, Matthew M., 230n235, 230n249 Tejas, Aditya, 210n115 Temer, Michel, 156 Tencent, 40 Tett, Gillian, 184n4, 225n te Velde, Dirk Willem, 214n175 TFP See total factor productivity Thakur, Ramesh, 218n58 Thompson, Helen, 226n177, 226n179, 226n181 Tirone, Daniel C., 201n136 Tobin, James, 144 Tobin tax, 144 Tolksdorf, Dominik, 205n27 Toloraia [Toloraya], Georgii, 221nn101–2, 221n105, 222nn108–9, 222nn114–17, 222n119 Tosovsky, Josef, 84, 206n57 total factor productivity, 34 TPP See Trans-Pacific Partnership trade: club system of politics in, 14; flow of, 55; globalization of, 37–38; imbalances in, 87; plurilateral agreements in, 17; RMB and, 104–105 trade balances, 106 trade liberalization index (Heritage Foundation), 53–54 transactions currencies, 101 Transoceanic Railway (South America), 155 Trans-Pacific Partnership, 11, 17, 18, 108 Treisman, Daniel, 221n106, 222n120, 236n38, 237nn51–52 Trenin, Dmitri V., 221n103, 221n105, 225n154 Trivedi, Kamakshya, 195n40 Truman, Edwin M., 204n14, 205n34, 205n39 Trump, Donald, 233n3 Trump administration, 12, 65 Tsai, Kellee S., 234n16, 235nn18–19 Tschirhart, John, 190n78 Tsugami, Toshiya, 220n89 Tussie, Diana, 191nn104–5 Ukraine, Russian intervention in, 4, 7, 11, 16, 23, 42, 88–89, 91, 133 Uliukaev [Ulyukaev], Aleksei, 128, 224n135, 236n35 UN See United Nations UNASUR See Union of South American Nations Union of South American Nations, 150 UnionPay (China), 92 unipolarity, 5, unipolar moment, 178 unitary rational actor assumption, 110 United Kingdom: capital markets in, 52; domestic financial development in, 51; financial power of, declining, 57 United Nations, 6; Conference on Trade and Development, 14; Economic Commission on Latin America and the Caribbean, 148; General Assembly, 210n109; Security Council, 6, 90, 112, 217n43, 232n United Progressive Alliance (India), 140 United States: AIIB’s effect on, 99; capital markets in, 50; challenges to, 4; China’s rise and, 108; counter-hegemonic bloc against, 6; credibility of, 91; decline of, 25; domestic financial development in, 51; dominance of, 24–25, 43–44, 66, 100–102; facilitating joiners in financial system, 9–10; financial power of, declining, 57; financial system of, access to, 44; foreign bond holdings in, 54; foreign policy of, 43, 144; G7 and, 1; global corporations and, 40; global current account surplus and, 56; global defense spending shifting away from, 42; government-sponsored enterprises, 137, 169; hard balancing against, 5; liberal hegemony of, 9; monetary policy of BRICS’ concerns about, 100–102; multilateral development banks and, 98; outside options for, 18–19; as percentage of G7 economies, 32; as portion of world economy, 29–31; power of, veiled, 80; preventing allies from acting as equal partners, 11; protecting Russia from IMF policies, 129–130; pursuing independent interests, 11–12, 33; share in world economy declining, 43–44; soft power of, 43; structural power of, 19, 22, 27, 66; trade deficits of, 87; in unipolar system, 3, 25; underrepresented in global governance institutions, 73, 74; veto power of, in World Bank and IMF, 75; as world’s financial hegemon, universalism, 148, 156 UNSC See United Nations: Security Council UPA See United Progressive Alliance Urpelainen, Johannes, 185n19, 186n33 Ursúa, José, 195n40 U.S National Intelligence Council, 194n27 Valle, Sabrina, 212n142 value chains, global, 37–38 van der Westhuizen, Janis, 232n269 Van Eeghen, Willem, 224n134 Vankorneft, 91 Velasco, Andrés, 235n21 Verma, Sid, 211n120, 212n139 Vermeiren, Mattias, 214n171, 220n85 Vestergaard, Jakob, 191n93, 204n16, 204n21 Vickers, Brendan, 191n102, 191n106 Victor, David G., 219n64 Vigevani, T., 230n235 Visa, 91 Vishny, Robert W., 236n38 Voeten, Erik, 5–6, 185nn23–25, 192n113, 192n115 Volz, Ulrich, 214n171, 220n89 Vreeland, James R., 189n67 Vrontamitis, Michael, 202n161 Wade, Robert H., 85, 191n93., 204n16, 204n21, 204n24, 205n25, 207n64 Wallis, John Joseph, 236n36 Walter, Andrew, 208n76, 214n175, 215n14, 216n16, 217n33 Waltz, Kenneth N., 191n101, 194n23 Wang Jue, 217n32, 219n74 Wang Jisi, 3, 117, 184nn10–11, 188n59, 192n119, 217nn38–39, 219n70, 221n98 Wang Liwei, 211n127, 211n131 Wang Wenfeng, 188n59 Wang Yi, 9, 187n48 Wang Ying, 217n42 Wang Yong, 184n9, 211n130, 218n52 Washington Consensus, 14, 86, 159, 170–171 Weaver, Catherine, 215n6 Wedeman, Andrew, 235n20, 236n37 WEF See World Economic Forum WEG, 39 Wei Lingling, 201n142 Weingast, Barry R., 236n36 Weinger, Mackensie, 232n282 Weinland, Don, 200n120 Weixing Hu, 188n59 Wells, Peter, 199n116 Wen Jiaobao, Werker, Eric, 189n67 Western defense spending, declines in, 42 Western powers, IMF favoring, 75 Wheatley, Jonathan, 230n242, 230n248, 231n255 White, Harry Dexter, 206n49 Wihtol, Robert, 219n65 Wildau, Gabriel, 200n120, 202nn162–63, 209n98, 210n116, 221n97 Williamson, John, 207n67, 229n231, 234n14, 236n39 Wilson, Dominic, 183n3, 195n40 Wilson, Elliott, 202n160 Wilson, Peter, 185n19 Winecoff, W Kindred, 194n19 Wise, Carol, 216n22, 230n247 Woetzel, Jonathan, 196n50, 196–97nn60–61, 198nn83–86 Wohlforth, William C., 25, 27–28, 185n20, 190n84, 192–93nn2–4, 194n24, 199nn108–9, 238n55 Wolczuk, Kataryna, 134, 225n152, 225n159 Wolf, Martin, 230n246 Wooders, Myrna, 190n79 Woods, Ngaire, 184n14, 204n16, 205n35, 221n97 Wörgötter, Andreas, 224n134 Workers’ Party (PT; Brazil), 152, 153, 156, 165 World Bank, 36, 195n32, 196n52, 196n55, 196n57, 196n59, 197n63, 197n67, 197n70, 198n79, 202n158, 224n135, 233n8; AIIB and, 98; BRICS pursuing reform of, 23, 71, 72, 76–77, 80, 84–85; challenges to, 14–15; China and, 9, 50; India borrowing from, 141; issuing SDR-denominated bonds, 104; leadership of, 82, 84–85; lending priorities of, 98; loan processing at, 95; multipolarity index of, 197n67; negative example of, 124; refocusing of, 141; voice reform at, 76; voting shares in, 80 World Bank Group, 204n13 World Economic Forum on Africa, 162 World Social Forum, 150 World Trade Organization, 6, 7, 18, 140, 159; China as veto player in, 187n51; China’s accession to, 34; clubs in, 13; Doha round, 16, 140, 159; steering groups in, 12 Worldwide Government Indicators, 172 Wright, Chris, 199n115 WTO See World Trade Organization Wulf, Herbert, 228n212 Wu Zhicheng, 188n59 Xi Jinping, 65, 90, 97, 112, 115–116, 122, 136, 137, 147, 158, 179, 215n9, 216n27, 232n270 Xiaomi, 40 Xue Litai, 198n100 Yadav, Vikash, 205n34 Yamal Liquefied Natural Gas project (Russia), 91 Yan Xuedong, 194n25 Yang Shaolin, 85 Yang Yongzheng, 237n47 Yang Jiang, 220n86, 220n91 Yang Jiemian, 216n27 Yanukovych, Viktor, 134 Yao Yang, 186n30, 234n15 Yeltsin, Boris, 125, 129 Yong Wook Lee, 190n91 yuan See renminbi Yurgens, Igor, 208n86, 223n122 Yu Yongding, 202n157, 212n145 Zadek, Simon, 233n4 Zakaria, Fareed, 184n7, 227n186, 236n40, 238n57 Zarate, Juan C., 186n35, 199n110 Zhan, James, 210n106 Zhang Fang, 234n14 Zhang Ming, 202n159, 214n170 Zhang Baohui, 216n28 Zhang Tao, 85 Zhang Yangpeng, 211n126 Zhao, Kejin, 220n83 Zhao, Minghao, 215n10 Zhao Suisheng, 192n117, 202n167, 220n88, 220n90 Zhao Nong, 235n17 Zheng, Yongnian, 220n85 Zhou Xiaochuan, 3, 61, 104, 213n161 Zhu, Yuchao, 220n81 Zhu Feng, 188n59, 192n119 Zhu Guangyao, 17, 192n108 Zhu Min, 84, 85 Zhu, Xiaodong, 195n42, 196n49, 196n52, 196n55, 197n70 Zingales, Luigi, 200n127 Zoellick, Robert B., 187n47, 218n56 Z-scores, 50 Zuma, Jacob, 157–160 Zuma government (South Africa), 159, 160, 231–32n267 .. .THE BRICS AND COLLECTIVE FINANCIAL STATECRAFT The BRICS and Collective Financial Statecraft Cynthia Roberts, Leslie Elliott Armijo, and Saori N Katada Oxford University... Multipolar World? The Global Financial and Monetary Capabilities of the BRICS Redback Rising Conclusion BRICS Collective Financial Statecraft: Four Cases Defining Collective Financial Statecraft Four... Unwarranted Growth: The Essential Need to Return to the BRICS? ?? Roots The Tension Between Formal and Informal Rules Summing up: The BRICS, Collective Financial Statecraft, and the Multipolar Future