joyce - the imf and global financial crisis; phoenix rising (2013)

The IMF and Global FInancIal crIses Joyce The IMF and Global FInancIal crIses Joseph P. Joyce Praise for The IMF and Global Financial Crises “Joseph Joyce has written a masterful book tracing the history of the IMF from inception to its current place in the international financial system. But The IMF and Global Financial Crises is much more than a history. In an engaging yet clear fashion, Joyce explains the gen- eses of financial crises, and why the functioning of the global economy requires an institu- tion like the IMF. This book is sure to become the definitive work on this critically important issue.” – Menzie Chinn, University of Wisconsin–Madison “Santayana reminds us that ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.’ Joseph Joyce’s book provides a ready mnemonic. The International Monetary Fund is the focal point of this work, and Joyce shows us both the strengths and the weaknesses of this institution as an agent of stability in the volatile world financial markets. This will be an important addition to your financial-crisis bookshelf.” – Patrick Conway, University of North Carolina “In this book, Joseph Joyce surveys the role of the International Monetary Fund in overseeing international finance since the 1940s. Joyce’s clear, compelling analysis goes beyond this to provide an informative, incisive history of modern international finance more generally. The IMF and Global Financial Crises is an accessible, comprehensive, and fair-minded review of the history, structure, and functioning of the contemporary international financial order.” – Jeffry Frieden, Harvard University “Joseph Joyce’s book is a tour de force. Unlike other works on the IMF this analysis weaves together theory and practice from economics and political science with larger concerns over the ways in which international organizations can influence domestic policies of member states. Professor Joyce has produced a volume that will be an important reference for academ- ics and policy makers alike.” – David Leblang, University of Virginia “Joe Joyce has written a concise yet lucid history of the IMF that focuses on its evolving role in a world of increasing financial fragility. This volume fills a real pedagogical gap, and any- one who teaches about the international monetary system, or wishes to learn about it, will be in the author’s debt.” – Maurice Obstfeld, University of California, Berkeley “Joe Joyce has produced a concise review of the IMF’s sixty-five-year evolution. The book is comprehensive, informative, and provocative.” – Edwin (Ted) M. Truman, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics Joseph P. Joyce is a Professor of Economics at Wellesley College. Cover image: © Toria / Shutterstock.com Cover design by David Levy Phoenix Rising? THE IMF AND GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES  e International Monetary Fund's response to the global crisis of 2008–9 marked a signi cant change from its past policies.  e IMF provided relatively large amounts of credit quickly with limited conditions and accepted the use of capital controls.  is book traces the evolution of the IMF’s actions to promote international  nancial stability from the Bretton Woods era through the most recent crisis.  e analysis includes an examination of the IMF’s crisis manage- ment activities during the debt crisis of the 1980s, the upheavals in emerging markets in the 1990s and early 2000s, and the ongoing European crisis.  e dominant in uence of the United States and other advanced economies in the governance of the IMF is also described, as well as the replacement of the G7 nations by the members of the more inclusive G20, which have promised to give the IMF a role in their mutual assessment of policies while undertaking reforms of the IMF’s governance. Joseph P. Joyce is a professor of economics at Wellesley College and serves as the faculty director of the Madeleine Korbel Institute for Global A airs. Professor Joyce’s research deals with issues in  nancial globalization. He has published articles in many journals, including the Journal of International Money and Finance , Open Economies Review , Review of International Economics , Journal of Development Economics , and Economics & Politics, and he is a member of the Editorial Board of the Review of International Organizations . He received his Ph.D. in economics from Boston University.  e IMF and Global Financial Crises Phoenix Rising? J O S E P H P . J O Y C E Wellesley College Department of Economics    Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, S ã o Paulo, Delhi, Mexico City Cambridge University Press 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York , NY 10013-2473, USA www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521874175 © Joseph P. Joyce 2013  is publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2013 Printed in the United States of America A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data Joyce, Joseph P.  e IMF and global  nancial crises : Phoenix rising? / by Joseph P. Joyce. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-521-87417-5 (hardback) 1. International Monetary Fund. 2. Financial crises. 3. International  nance. 4. Global Financial Crisis, 2008–2009. 5. International Monetary Fund – Developing countries. I. Title. HG3881.5.I58J69 2013 332.1′52–dc23 2012023656 ISBN 978-0-521-87417-5 Hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.  e phoenix hope can wing her  ight  ro’ the vast deserts of the skies, And still defying fortune’s spite, Revive, and from her ashes rise. Miguel De Cervantes, Don Quixote (Motteux, trans.) vii List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes page x P r e f a c e xiii A c k n o w l e d g m e n t s xvii List of Abbreviations xix 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 1.1 IPGs and Financial Stability 4 1.2 IGOs and the IMF 8 1.3 Principals and Agents 10 1.4 Overview 13 2. Bretton Woods 19 2.1 New Order 20 2.2 Administrative Arrangements 24 2.3 Adjustment versus Finance 26 2.4 Collapse of Bretton Woods 31 2.5 IMF and Bretton Woods: Appraisal 32 3 . T r a n s i t i o n s 3 5 3.1 New Responsibilities 36 3.2 Euromarkets 40 3.3 Recycling 42 3.4 New Organizations 47 3.5 IMF and the Nonsystem: Appraisal 49 4 .  e Debt Crisis 52 4.1 Crisis Emergence 53 4.2 Crisis Manager 55 4.3 Program Breakdowns 58 Contents Contents viii 4.4 Crisis Resolution 62 4.5 Basel I 67 4.6 IMF and the Debt Crisis: Appraisal 69 5. Global Finance Redux 72 5.1 Resurgence of Capital Flows 73 5.2 IMF Programs and Capital Decontrol 76 5.3 Catalysis 81 5.4 New Amendment 83 5.5 IMF and Financial Liberalization: Appraisal 86 6. Currency Crises 88 6.1 ERM 89 6.2 IMF and the ERM Crisis: Appraisal 92 6.3 Mexico: Crisis 96 6.4 Mexico: A ermath 100 6.5 IMF and Mexico: Appraisal 102 7 .  e Widening Gyre 105 7.1 East Asia 106 7.2 IMF and East Asia: Appraisal 115 8. Fiscal Follies 120 8.1 Russia 121 8.2 IMF and Russia: Appraisal 124 8.3 Brazil 125 8.4 Argentina 127 8.5 IMF and Argentina: Appraisal 132 9. Lessons Learned 134 9.1 Reforms 135 9.2 International Lender of Last Resort 139 9.3 FSF and Basel II 143 9.4 Reserves and Regional Arrangements 148 10.  e Great Recession 153 10.1 Global Imbalances 154 10.2 Premonitions 161 10.3 Impasse 164 10.4 Implosion 167 10.5 IMF and the Great Recession: Appraisal 177 Contents ix 11.  e World Turned Upside Down 181 11.1 Debt Again 182 11.2 Integration or Autonomy? 188 11.3 What Is to Be Done? 191 Appendix: IMF Data 197 R e f e r e n c e s 201 I n d e x 227 [...]... well as the IMF s own commitment to capital market integration and evaluate the effectiveness of the IMF in its roles as crisis preventer and crisis manager The challenges of the future are also addressed, as well as the steps the IMF must take to solidify its reputation The consequences of the changes in the IMF s own governance extend beyond the IMF itself Similar relationships between the IMF and its... challenges as they seek to continue their rapid growth, will be suspicious of IMF programs if these appear to be less demanding than those extended during earlier crisis periods This book examines the evolution of the policies and programs of the IMF with respect to the global financial markets and crises in these markets.3 We show how the IMF s activities during the period of 1973–2008 reflected the influence... expanded, and by the end of the century it was possible to refer to the integration of financial markets across borders as the latest manifestation of globalization (Mishkin 2006) But it was also a period of economic volatility and upheaval, which included the debt crisis of the 1980s, the financial crises in the emerging markets of the 1990s, and, most recently, the global crisis of 2008–9 At the. .. market capitalism – from the bursting of the British South Sea bubble and the French Mississippi in 1720, to the depressions of the 1870s and 1930s in the industrial economies, to the debt crises of middle-income Latin American countries and low-income African countries in the 1980s, the collapse of output in the formerly socialist economies in the 1990s, and the East Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998... proposal after the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis The eruption of currency crises during the 1990s in Europe and Mexico, and the IMF s role (or absence) in their resolution, are examined in Chapter 6 The European countries dealt with their crisis without involving the IMF, thereby contributing to the division between those IMF members that borrowed from it and those that did not The events in... known as the “Great Recession.” The news that the IMF was “back in business” was remarkable in view of the deterioration of the IMF s reputation after the crises of the late 1990s and the decline in its lending activities in the succeeding decade The IMF had been widely blamed for indirectly contributing to the earlier crises by advocating the premature removal of controls on capital flows, and then imposing... income and whether or not a country borrowed from the Fund.2 In addition, the IMF had actively encouraged the deepening and widening of global finance The IMF s previous responses to financial crises, therefore, reflected the dominance of its upper-income members as well as an ideological consensus in favor of financial globalization Its lending programs had sought to restore countries in crisis to the global. .. private financial flows and depended upon the IMF and other multilateral agencies for assistance Consequently there was friction between those nations that directed the IMF s governance and those that borrowed from it The financial shock that shook the world economy in 2008, however, originated in the United States, and the advanced economies were particularly hard hit by the ensuing crisis Moreover, these... and countries did rise and fall among the categories But during the post–Bretton Woods era the advanced economies that dominated the IMF and other international agencies did not need to borrow from the Fund, while the emerging markets with much less clout were forced to turn to the IMF for credit whenever they experienced one of their recurrent financial crises Preface xv The IMF s poorer members were... in the upper-income countries, and the recovery of many of these nations has been relatively sluggish The emerging economies, on the other hand, rebounded from the global economic contraction more quickly, in turn contributing to the recovery of the developing nations Moreover, the crisis demonstrated that financial instability can be a systemic condition, confirming the need for prudent oversight and . The IMF and Global FInancIal crIses Joyce The IMF and Global FInancIal crIses Joseph P. Joyce Praise for The IMF and Global Financial Crises “Joseph Joyce has written a. clear fashion, Joyce explains the gen- eses of financial crises, and why the functioning of the global economy requires an institu- tion like the IMF. This book is sure to become the definitive. volatil- ity and upheaval, which included the debt crisis of the 1980s, the  nancial crises in the emerging markets of the 1990s, and, most recently, the global crisis of 2008–9. At the center