MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH CITY Phùng Viết Nhiên THE FACTORS INFLUENCING INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR’S BEHAVIOR IN VIETNAM STOCK EXCHANGE MASTER’S THESIS In Business Administration Ology code: 60.34.05 Supervisor Professor- Dr VÕ THỊ QUÝ Ho Chi Minh City 2010 Acknowledgement This research project would not have been possible without the support of many people Firstly I wish to express my deep sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Dr Vo Thi Quy for her invaluable advices and helps Without her, this thesis could not have been completed I would like to express my deepest gratitude and honor to my dear parents for not only the love they devote to me but also for the time I took from them which should have been my devotion to them in their aged time Special thanks to my wife’s assistance in this study She has encouraged me and helped me in English editing My thanks would also go to all of my colleagues from Nguyen Tat Thanh college, my classmates, especially, Lam Hong Phong, Nguyen Thanh Trung and Ms Dang Hai Yen, Ms Nguyen Nhu Chang for all of their friendship and encouragement Finally, I also wish to thank my friends in Ocean Security, Dai A Security, Nhat Viet Security, Vietcombank, HSBC, National university… for their great support My thanks would also go to the respondents, without them, my thesis could not have been done i Abstract This paper aimed at identifying the most and the least influencing factors on the Vietnamese investor’s behavior Base on Al-Tamimi’s questionnaire, this research developed a modified questionnaire The questionnaire included thirty items that belong to five categories: self-image/firm-image co-incidence, accounting information, neutral information, advocate recommendations, personal financial needs This study was carried out in 226 individual investors in Hochiminh stock exchange The results showed that Vietnamese individual investors select stock base on some factors The most interested factors were Condition of financial statements, Expected corporate earnings, Expected profit from stock, Reputation of the firm, Fluctuation/developments in the VN stock index, Government's policy (tax, monetary, interest rate), Current economic indicators (such as GDP, inflation ), Affordable share price, Firm status in industry, Expected dividends The least factors were related to advocate recommendations such as Self-company recommendation, Friend or family member opinions, Opinions of the firm’s stockholders, Broker recommendation, specialist recommendation, and Security company’s recommendations Factors namely Fluctuation of gold's price, Minimizing risk, Fluctuation of dollars' price, Feelings for a firm's products and services, Reputation of the firm's shareholders or leader are also the least influencing factors on investor’s behavior Key word: individual investor’s behavior ii TABLE OF CONTENT -Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction page 1 1.2 Research background page 1.3 Problem statement page 3 1.4 Research objective page 1.5 Scope and methodology of the study page 1.6 Contribution page 1.7 Structure of the study page Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction page 2.2 Some of related theory page 2.2.1 The concept of investors page 2.2.2 Security Selection: the Treynor-Black model page 2.2.3 Security analysis page 2.2.4 Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis page 13 2.3 Previous researches page 15 10 11 2.4 Research question .page 25 2.5 Conclusion page 25 Chapter 3: METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction .page 26 12 iii 3.2 Research design page 26 3.3 Develop questionnaire page 29 3.4 Pilot test page 31 3.5 Main survey .page 32 3.6 Conclusion .page 34 13 Chapter 4: DATA ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS 14 15 16 17 18 4.1 Introduction page 35 4.2 Descriptions of sample page 35 4.3 Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) page 37 4.4 Reliability testing page 40 4.5 The most and the least factors influence on investor’s behavior page 42 19 20 21 4.5.1 Effect of groups of variables on investor’s behavior .page 42 4.5.2 Effect of separate variables on investor’s behavior page 48 4.6 Conclusion page 53 Chapter 5: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 22 23 24 5.1 Introduction page 56 5.2 Summary of the study page 57 5.3 Implications of this study page 58 5.4 Conclusions of this study page 61 25 5.5 Limitations and recommendations for further research page 61 iv LIST OF REFERENCES page 62 Appendix – Questionnaire (Vietnamese version) page 65 Appendix – Observed variables page 68 Appendix - Descriptive Statistics of variables page 69 26 Appendix – Compare mean of variables page 70 LIST OF FIGURES 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Figure 1.1 Outline of chapter page Figure 1.2 Structure of the study page Figure 2.1 The structure of Chapter page Figure 3.1 Outline of chapter page 26 Figure 3.2 Research process page 28 Figure 4.1 Outline of chapter page 35 Figure 5.1 – Outline of chapter page 56 v LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: The factors influencing on equity selection process of individual investor in USA in Nagy’s research page 17 Table 2.2: The factors influencing on equity selection process of individual investor in Greek in Merikas’ research page 19 Table 2.3: The factors influence on individual investor behavior in UAE in AlTamimi’s research page 23 Table 3.1: The measurement of scale of variables in this research page 30 Table 4.1 – Sample characteristics page 36 Table 4.2 – KMO and Bartlett's Test page 38 Table 4.3: Rotated component matrix page 39 Table 4.4: Reliability of the measurement instrument page 40 Table 4.5: Frequency Distribution of Variables that Significantly Influence the Vietnamese behavior page 43 Table 4.6: Multiple Comparisons of groups page 47 Table 4.7: Descriptive Statistics of variables .page 49 Table 4.8: The most influencing factors on Vietnamese investor’s behavior page 51 Table 4.9: The least influencing factors on Vietnamese investor’s behavior page 51 Table 4.10: The most influencing factors in this research, Nagy, Merikas and AlTamimi page 52 Table 4.11: The least influencing factors in this research, Nagy, Merikas and AlTamimi page 55 vi Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction This chapter portrays general introduction for the current study with which research problem, research objectives and research questions are provided as the rationale for this study An introduction to the research methodology to be used and the scope of the study is also addressed in this chapter At the end of the chapter, the structure of this study is provided The Outline of this chapter is shown in figure 1.1 45 10 Figure 1.1 Outline of chapter 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Research background 1.3 Problem statement 1.4 Research objectives 1.5 Scope and Methodology 1.6 Contribution 1.7 Structure of the study 1.2 Research background The Vietnam Stock Exchange (VSE) was established in 2000 At that time, trading in the stock market was operated only at the HoChiMinh Stock Exchange (HOSE), market is expressed through VN index Initially, two equity issues were listed, Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Joint Stock Corporation (‘REE’) and Saigon Cable and Telecommunication Material Joint Stock Company (‘SACOM’) Until 2005, there were only 41 equities issues listed During that period VN index fluctuated erratically, sometime it raised up to nearly 600 score sometime it fell down nearly 100 As of 2006, particularly in end-year half, quantity of listed companied increased quickly, 196 companies were listed at the end of 2006 In total there were thirteen licensed securities companies Along with rising of listed companies, VN index increased continuously from 600 in middle to nearly 1000 at the end of 2006 Not stop at that point, with the event that Vietnam joined to WTO at the end of 2006, the stock market really broke out The market was hot continuously regardless of the warning of experts and pinnacle of VN index was 1170 on 13/03/2007 There had been 249 companies listed on stock market until 2007 Of these, 138 are at HOSE, left ones are at Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) With 249 being listed, market capitalization is about 491 billions VND, equivalent to 30 billion US dollars Comparing Vietnam market capitalization to other stock markets of developed countries, perhaps Vietnam market is not worth considering However, 30 billion US dollars market capitalization is equivalent to 43% GDP of the whole nation that would be significant to Vietnam Over years of establishment and development, in general, the market has positive contribution The Vietnamese Stock market have experience strong fluctuation: from over 1100 on 13/03/2007 down to over 250 point in the beginning of 2008 During this time, at the cheapest (over 250 point), some investors are hesitant to buy stock but at the highest (over 1100 point), some investors fight to buy stock So what make investors buy and/or sell stock? Which factors influence investor’s behavior? 11 1.3 Problem statement Vietnam security market had the highest growth rate in the Asia Pacific in 2006 with 145%, even higher than Sanghai security market with 130% growth rate And at early 2007, VN security market continuously increased with 46% - the highest growth rate in the world This fierce increase of VN market made shock to not only many domestic investors but also security experts including market control officers Along with this, the worry about risk of forming buble in the security market had been a controversial topic A lot of reasons had been made to explain too hot development of VN security maket Domestic investors blamed for foreign investors, foreign investors blamed for domestic investors’ “craziness” However, in general most of people supposed that main reason was “herd psyshology behavior”, crowd psychology investment of domestic investors –lack of knowledge and personal expectation ( http://www.saga.vn/view.aspx?id=2953) Is it right? So what factors affect on 34 Vietnamese individual investors’ behavior? 12 1.4 Research objective The purpose of this study is examining the most and the least influencing factors on the Vietnamese individual investors’ behavior 13 1.5 Scope and methodology of the study 1.5.1 Scope of the study The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange have more listed company and trading volume than Hanoi Stock Exchange, so my study just focuses on individual investors 35 at the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Center Therefore they may not represent for all individual investors in Vietnamese Stock Exchange 1.5.2 Research Method V12 V13 V35 15044 09109 1.000 -.1867 4876 V36 09292 09109 1.000 -.2443 4301 V41 19912 09109 1.000 -.1381 5363 V42 36726* 09109 013 0301 7044 V43 31858 09109 109 -.0186 6558 V44 19469 09109 1.000 -.1425 5319 V45 23451 09109 1.000 -.1027 5717 V46 27434 09109 603 -.0628 6115 V53 15044 09109 1.000 -.1867 4876 V54 * -.81858 09109 000 -1.1558 -.4814 V11 03097 09109 1.000 -.3062 3682 V13 -.57080* 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1.0894 V45 79204* 09109 000 4549 1.1292 V46 * 09109 000 4947 1.1690 V53 * 70796 09109 000 3708 1.0451 V54 -.26106 09109 964 -.5982 0761 V11 50885* 09109 000 1717 8460 V12 * 47788 09109 000 1407 8151 V13 -.09292 09109 1.000 -.4301 2443 V14 04425 09109 1.000 -.2929 3814 92478 83186 76 V35 V21 -.33186 09109 063 -.6690 0053 V22 * -.42035 09109 001 -.7575 -.0832 V23 13274 09109 1.000 -.2044 4699 V24 10619 09109 1.000 -.2310 4434 V25 02212 09109 1.000 -.3151 3593 V32 -.04425 09109 1.000 -.3814 2929 V33 -.04867 09109 1.000 -.3858 2885 V35 65929* 09109 000 3221 9965 V36 60177* 09109 000 2646 9389 V41 * 70796 09109 000 3708 1.0451 V42 87611* 09109 000 5389 1.2133 V43 82743* 09109 000 4903 1.1646 V44 70354* 09109 000 3664 1.0407 V45 * 09109 000 4062 1.0805 V46 * 78319 09109 000 4460 1.1204 V53 65929* 09109 000 3221 9965 V54 -.30973 09109 157 -.6469 0274 V11 -.15044 09109 1.000 -.4876 1867 V12 -.18142 09109 1.000 -.5186 1558 V13 -.75221* 09109 000 -1.0894 -.4150 V14 -.61504* 09109 000 -.9522 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09109 109 -.6558 0186 V12 -.34956* 09109 029 -.6867 -.0124 V13 -.92035* 09109 000 -1.2575 -.5832 V14 -.78319* 09109 000 -1.1204 -.4460 V21 * -1.15929 09109 000 -1.4965 -.8221 V22 -1.24779* 09109 000 -1.5850 -.9106 V23 -.69469* 09109 000 -1.0319 -.3575 V24 -.72124* 09109 000 -1.0584 -.3841 V25 * 09109 000 -1.1425 -.4681 V32 * -.87168 09109 000 -1.2089 -.5345 V33 -.87611* 09109 000 -1.2133 -.5389 V34 -.82743* 09109 000 -1.1646 -.4903 V35 -.16814 09109 1.000 -.5053 1690 V36 -.22566 09109 1.000 -.5628 1115 V41 -.11947 09109 1.000 -.4566 2177 V42 04867 09109 1.000 -.2885 3858 V44 -.12389 09109 1.000 -.4611 2133 V45 -.08407 09109 1.000 -.4212 2531 V46 -.04425 09109 1.000 -.3814 2929 V53 -.16814 09109 1.000 -.5053 1690 V54 * -1.13717 09109 000 -1.4743 -.8000 V11 -.19469 09109 1.000 -.5319 1425 V12 -.22566 09109 1.000 -.5628 1115 V13 -.79646* 09109 000 -1.1336 -.4593 V14 * 09109 000 -.9965 -.3221 V21 * -1.03540 09109 000 -1.3726 -.6982 V22 -1.12389* 09109 000 -1.4611 -.7867 -.80531 -.65929 80 V45 V23 -.57080* 09109 000 -.9080 -.2336 V24 * -.59735 09109 000 -.9345 -.2602 V25 -.68142* 09109 000 -1.0186 -.3442 V32 -.74779* 09109 000 -1.0850 -.4106 V33 -.75221* 09109 000 -1.0894 -.4150 V34 * -.70354 09109 000 -1.0407 -.3664 V35 -.04425 09109 1.000 -.3814 2929 V36 -.10177 09109 1.000 -.4389 2354 V41 00442 09109 1.000 -.3328 3416 V42 17257 09109 1.000 -.1646 5097 V43 12389 09109 1.000 -.2133 4611 V45 03982 09109 1.000 -.2974 3770 V46 07965 09109 1.000 -.2575 4168 V53 -.04425 09109 1.000 -.3814 2929 V54 * -1.01327 09109 000 -1.3505 -.6761 V11 -.23451 09109 1.000 -.5717 1027 V12 -.26549 09109 826 -.6027 0717 V13 * 09109 000 -1.1735 -.4991 V14 * -.69912 09109 000 -1.0363 -.3619 V21 -1.07522* 09109 000 -1.4124 -.7380 V22 -1.16372* 09109 000 -1.5009 -.8265 V23 * 09109 000 -.9478 -.2734 V24 * -.63717 09109 000 -.9743 -.3000 V25 -.72124* 09109 000 -1.0584 -.3841 V32 -.78761* 09109 000 -1.1248 -.4504 V33 * 09109 000 -1.1292 -.4549 V34 * -.74336 09109 000 -1.0805 -.4062 V35 -.08407 09109 1.000 -.4212 2531 V36 -.14159 09109 1.000 -.4788 1956 V41 -.03540 09109 1.000 -.3726 3018 V42 13274 09109 1.000 -.2044 4699 V43 08407 09109 1.000 -.2531 4212 -.83628 -.61062 -.79204 81 V46 V53 V44 -.03982 09109 1.000 -.3770 2974 V46 03982 09109 1.000 -.2974 3770 V53 -.08407 09109 1.000 -.4212 2531 V54 -1.05310* 09109 000 -1.3903 -.7159 V11 -.27434 09109 603 -.6115 0628 V12 -.30531 09109 187 -.6425 0319 V13 -.87611* 09109 000 -1.2133 -.5389 V14 -.73894* 09109 000 -1.0761 -.4018 V21 -1.11504* 09109 000 -1.4522 -.7779 V22 * -1.20354 09109 000 -1.5407 -.8664 V23 -.65044* 09109 000 -.9876 -.3133 V24 -.67699* 09109 000 -1.0142 -.3398 V25 -.76106* 09109 000 -1.0982 -.4239 V32 * 09109 000 -1.1646 -.4903 V33 * -.83186 09109 000 -1.1690 -.4947 V34 -.78319* 09109 000 -1.1204 -.4460 V35 -.12389 09109 1.000 -.4611 2133 V36 -.18142 09109 1.000 -.5186 1558 V41 -.07522 09109 1.000 -.4124 2620 V42 09292 09109 1.000 -.2443 4301 V43 04425 09109 1.000 -.2929 3814 V44 -.07965 09109 1.000 -.4168 2575 V45 -.03982 09109 1.000 -.3770 2974 V53 -.12389 09109 1.000 -.4611 2133 V54 -1.09292* 09109 000 -1.4301 -.7557 V11 -.15044 09109 1.000 -.4876 1867 V12 -.18142 09109 1.000 -.5186 1558 V13 -.75221* 09109 000 -1.0894 -.4150 V14 -.61504* 09109 000 -.9522 -.2779 V21 * 09109 000 -1.3283 -.6540 V22 * -1.07965 09109 000 -1.4168 -.7425 V23 -.52655* 09109 000 -.8637 -.1894 -.82743 -.99115 82 V54 V24 -.55310* 09109 000 -.8903 -.2159 V25 * -.63717 09109 000 -.9743 -.3000 V32 -.70354* 09109 000 -1.0407 -.3664 V33 -.70796* 09109 000 -1.0451 -.3708 V34 -.65929* 09109 000 -.9965 -.3221 V35 00000 09109 1.000 -.3372 3372 V36 -.05752 09109 1.000 -.3947 2797 V41 04867 09109 1.000 -.2885 3858 V42 21681 09109 1.000 -.1204 5540 V43 16814 09109 1.000 -.1690 5053 V44 04425 09109 1.000 -.2929 3814 V45 08407 09109 1.000 -.2531 4212 V46 12389 09109 1.000 -.2133 4611 V54 * 09109 000 -1.3062 -.6318 V11 * 81858 09109 000 4814 1.1558 V12 78761* 09109 000 4504 1.1248 V13 21681 09109 1.000 -.1204 5540 V14 * 35398 09109 024 0168 6912 V21 -.02212 09109 1.000 -.3593 3151 V22 -.11062 09109 1.000 -.4478 2266 V23 44248* 09109 000 1053 7797 V24 * 41593 09109 001 0788 7531 V25 33186 09109 063 -.0053 6690 V32 26549 09109 826 -.0717 6027 V33 26106 09109 964 -.0761 5982 V34 30973 09109 157 -.0274 6469 V35 * 96903 09109 000 6318 1.3062 V36 91150* 09109 000 5743 1.2487 V41 1.01770* 09109 000 6805 1.3549 V42 * 09109 000 8487 1.5230 V43 * 1.13717 09109 000 8000 1.4743 V44 1.01327* 09109 000 6761 1.3505 -.96903 1.18584 83 V45 1.05310* 09109 000 7159 1.3903 V46 * 1.09292 09109 000 7557 1.4301 V53 96903* 09109 000 6318 1.3062 * The mean difference is significant at the 0.05 level 84