International water scarcity and variability managing resource use across political boundaries

International Water Scarcity and Variability The publisher gratefully acknowledges the generous support to this book provided by the Stephen Bechtel Fund International Water Scarcity and Variability Managing Resource Use across Political Boundaries Shlomi Dinar and Ariel Dinar UN IV E R S ITY O F C A L IFO R N IA P R E S S University of California Press, one of the most distinguished university presses in the United States, enriches lives around the world by advancing scholarship in the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences Its activities are supported by the UC Press Foundation and by philanthropic contributions from individuals and institutions For more information, visit www.ucpress.edu University of California Press Oakland, California © 2017 by The Regents of the University of California Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Dinar, Shlomi, 1975- author | Dinar, Ariel, 1947- author Title: International water scarcity and variability : managing resource use across political boundaries / Shlomi Dinar and Ariel Dinar Description: Oakland, California : University of California Press, [2017] | Includes bibliographical references and index Identifiers: LCCN 2016023974 (print) | LCCN 2016025167 (ebook) | ISBN 9780520283077 (cloth : alk paper) | ISBN 9780520292789 (pbk : alk paper) | ISBN 9780520958906 (e-edition) Subjects: LCSH: Water-supply—International cooperation | Water security—Social aspects Classification: LCC HD1691 D5625 2017 (print) | LCC HD1691 (ebook) | DDC 333.91—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016023974 Manufactured in the United States of America 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 10 To our families CONTENTS List of Illustrations Acknowledgments Introduction: The Debate on Climate Change and Water Security Theory of Scarcity-Variability, Conflict, and Cooperation Emergence of Cooperation under Scarcity and Variability Institutions and the Stability of Cooperative Arrangements under Scarcity and Variability Incentives to Cooperate: Political and Economic Instruments Evidence: How Basin Riparian Countries Cope with Water Scarcity and Variability Conclusion and Policy Implications Notes References Index ILLUSTRATIONS F I G U RE S 2.1: A stylized scarcity and variability–cooperation continuum 3.1: Renewable available water resources per capita per year in Angola and Austria, 1955–2100 6.1: The Jordan River Basin 6.2: Total Jordan inflow to Lake Kineret, 1970–2005 6.3: The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin 6.4: Water flow at Hardinge Bridge and Farakka during the lean period 6.5: The Syr Darya Basin and the Aral Sea 6.6: Measured water flow at Toktogul, 1910–2011 6.7: The Tagus River Basin 6.8: Flow in Tajos at Cedillo 6.9: The Rio Grande and Rio Conchos system 6.10: The Colorado Basin 6.11: Extractions from the Rio Grande by the United States and Mexico, 1958– 2000 6.12: Annual flow volume of the Colorado River at Lee’s Ferry, 1894–2004 TAB LE S 3.1: Distribution of the river geographies in the dataset (treaty and non-treaty rivers) 3.2: Distribution of the treaties per river in the dataset 3.3: Distribution of water treaty signing years, 1850–2002 3.4: Distribution of treaties with number of issues over time 3.5: Distribution of treaty issues over time 3.6: Principal component variables 3.7: Descriptive statistics of variables included in the regression analyses 3.8: Results of the cooperation estimates applied to the full dataset 3.9: Results of the cooperation estimates applied to the only-treaty dataset 3.10: Results of the cooperation estimates applied to only water allocation issue treaties 3.11: Water supply variability impact on treaty likelihood and cooperation 3.12: Likelihood of treaty formation 3.13: Cooperation estimates applied to the full dataset 3.14: Marginal values of main variables calculated at the sample mean 4.1: Definition and description of allocation mechanisms found in treaties A4.1: Individual and linked games in the case of the Mekong River Basin A4.2: Results of selected institutional arrangements included in treaties A4.3: Selected results of the role of institutions in mitigation impact of water variability on treaty performance 5.1: Stipulations summary per basin 6.1: The 1996 Ganges treaty at Farakka 6.2: The Albufeira allocation regime 6.3: Comparison of the water scarcity issues and the arrangements introduced in the five case-study basins M APS 3.1: Distribution of bilateral basins ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This book is based to a large extent on our work and consultation with colleagues in the past decade and a half, and on discussions we had during seminars and conferences with scholars working in the field of international water Although there are numerous people to thank, we would like to acknowledge the following individuals who helped us galvanize the ideas that culminated in this book: Scott Barrett, Thomas Bernauer, Brian Blankespoor, Itay Fischhendler, Mark Giordano, David Katz, Marc Kilgour, Daene McKinney, Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, Lucia De Stefano, Erika Weinthal, Aaron Wolf, and Neda Zawahri ... Ariel, 1947- author Title: International water scarcity and variability : managing resource use across political boundaries / Shlomi Dinar and Ariel Dinar Description: Oakland, California : University.. .International Water Scarcity and Variability The publisher gratefully acknowledges the generous support to this book provided by the Stephen Bechtel Fund International Water Scarcity and Variability. .. Arrangements under Scarcity and Variability Incentives to Cooperate: Political and Economic Instruments Evidence: How Basin Riparian Countries Cope with Water Scarcity and Variability Conclusion and Policy