LV Thạc sỹ_The magnitude of technical analysis from the professional analysts perspective in Vietnam stock market

NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY ADVANCED EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM ***************************** BACHELOR’S THESIS THE MAGNITUDE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FROM THE PROFESSIONAL ANALYSTS’ PERSPECTIVE IN VIETNAM STOCK MARKET ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We would like to thank our instructor, Master …, for his precious guidance and support We couldn’t have done this research in well-organized manner without his constructive feedback We also want to thank Mr … broker at Thang Long securities, for providing us valuable contacts that we were able to get our survey questionnaires completed with the highest possible return rate TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY .1 ADVANCED EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM .1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ABSTRACT CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Rationale 1 Research objectives: Data and methodology Research scope .2 CHAPTER 2: THEREOTICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical background 2.1.1 Market action discounts everything 2.1.2 Price moves in trend 2.1.3 History repeats itself 2.1.4 Dow’s theory .4 2.1.5 Elliot Wave Theory .5 2.1.6 Efficient market hypothesis and random walk theory .6 2.1.7 Technical indicators in brief .7 2.1.8 Differences between fundamental versus technical analysis 15 2.2 Literature review .16 2.3 Overview of Vietnam stock market and history of technical analysis in Vietnam stock market .21 2.3.1 Overview of stock market 21 2.3.2 Overview of technical analysis 28 CHAPTER 3: EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 32 3.1 The magnitude of using Technical analysis 32 3.1.1 Frequency of using technical analysis amongst professional analysts 32 3.1.2 Implication of technical analysis in securities analyzing for securities company 37 3.1.3 The commercialization of technical analysis 40 3.2 Technical trading techniques employed in Vietnam .40 3.2.1 Effectiveness of TA in price forecast in overall .40 3.2.2 Technical tools commonly in use .43 3.3 Limitations of technical analysis in Vietnam stock market, judging from professional perspective .62 3.3.1 Technical analysis .62 3.3.2 Limitations of applying technical analysis in Vietnam 63 CHAPTER 4: DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDTIONS 66 4.1 Recommendation .66 4.2 Discussion issues .67 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION 71 REFERENCES 71 APPENDICES 75 ABSTRACT Financial markets in the world have employed technical analysis for decades, and the advancement of trading techniques has reached an unprecedented mastery In contrast, Vietnam stock market has just opened up to this new trading style; thus, there are only a limited number of researches examining the practice of adopting technical analysis in stock analyzing and trading Not to mention to studies investigating how well fundamental approach is in the same direction with technical scheme are just countable on one hand or even hardly found Most of studies working on this issue normally apply statistical method to calculate historical returns from Buy & Hold strategy versus technical signals to determine if technical analysis has any power in predicting prices and reaping up abnormal profits This research paper aims at providing a fair judgment of the practice of applying technical analysis in Vietnam stock market from the professional perspective In this paper, frequency of using technical analysis, preferred trading techniques, along with concurrence of results derived from technical and fundamental method are examined one-by-one With hand-on experiences, professional technicians have more insightful view than any others on how to make sense of these issues The answers collected from survey questionnaires, to some extents, demonstrate that technical analysis is preferable as predictive tool in the short-term and medium-term investment decision-making rather than longer-term In the long-term investment horizon, however, the squezzing role of technical analysis is observed Also, it’s obvious that probability of 100 percent of concurrence hardly occurs Yet, to some extent, these two approaches more or less find common ground to work with each others The technical trading rules and strategies varies from one to another, depending on preferences and experiences of professionals All in all, this paper promisingly gives readers an overview of technical analysis application in vietnam stock market, including frequency of usage as well as effectiveness of it LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Top 10 of largest company based on market capitalization (Sources: vietstock) 23 Table 3.1: % win of random companies with their prediction for VN-Index .42 Table 3.2: multiple using chart habit of 30 technical analysts 48 Table 3.3: what chart is combined by technical analyst when they use just charts? .49 Table 3.4: what charts are combined by technical analyst when they use just charts 50 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Elliot wave (Source: stockchart.com) .5 Figure 2.2: Elliot wave – three rules (Source: stockchart.com) Figure 2.3: Elliott wave – guidelines (Source: stockchart.com) Figure 2.4: Sensitivity of a variety of Moving Average (Source: stockchart.com) Figure2.5: ROC with ANF index (Source: stockchart.com) .9 Figure 2.6: CCI with CAT index (Source: stockchart.com) .10 Figure 2.7: RSI with WFR index (Source: stockchart.com) .11 Figure 2.8: MFI with JBNT index (Source: stockchart.com) 12 Figure 2.9: William % R with IBM index (Source: stockchart.com) .13 Figure 2.10: MACD with PHM index (Source: stockchart.com) .14 Figure 2.11: highest and lowest point of VN-Index and HNX-Index (Sources: HOSE) 24 Figure 2.12 : VN-Index for year 2007-2012 (sources: HOSE) .30 Figure 2.13: Technical analysis of Au Viet securities companies in 21-7-2010.(sources: Au Viet) 31 Chart 3.1: frequency of using technical analysis amongst professional analysts 32 Chart 3.2: frequency of using technical analysis in short-term 33 Chart 3.3: Frequency of using technical analysis in medium-term 34 Chart 3.4: Frequency of usage in long-term (major phase) 35 Figure 3.1: Metastock chart of SSI index 01/04/2010 (sources: Saga) 45 Figure 3.2: Amibroker chart of SSI index 01/04/2010 (sources: Saga) 46 Figure 3.3: Compare bar and candle Sources: VBSC 49 Figure 3.4: Fibonacci with VN-Index at % rate (sources: MSWing.net) 52 Figure 3.5: Elliott wave I with VN-Index in 2003 (sources: MSWing.net) .53 Figure 3.6: Elliott wave with VN-Index from 2003-2011 (sources: MSWing.net) 53 Figure 3.7: MACD with SSI index (source: Vietstock) 56 Figure 3.8: Bollinger Band with KDC index (sources: Vietstock) 57 Figure 3.9: SMA with REE index (sources: Vietstock) 58 Figure 3.10: PSAR with REE index (sources: Vietstock) 59 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1Rationale Technical analysis has been emerging as commonly used tool in Vietnam stock market where, for long time, people already got familiar with fundamental approach Technical approach in financial world is not brand-new thing in advanced markets like US, Tokyo, London, etc., but it was introduced in Vietnam as recently as five years ago Since technical analysis has been catching on, the number of investors and professional analysts who have understanding on this method is on the rise This phenomenon leaves questions: what’s so captivating about technical analysis? Does it really work for Vietnam stock market which is far more from well-functioning markets in sophisticated financial hubs in the world? No one can tell with 100% certainty either fundamental approach or technical one is superior to the other Depending on distinct situations and conditions, the analyst chooses one over the other or wisely makes the most of both On the one hand, fundamental analysis involves the computation of intrinsic values by using proximate future estimations Unfortunately, these future indicators are subject to alteration due to its inherited unpredictable and opaque nature of information disclosure in Vietnam On the other hand, technical analysis gives no room for financial statements of companies Rather, it spends a great deal of emphasis on making sense on prevailing trends and signals Put all the details aside, while fundamental is a forward-looking approach, technical method pays attention to the past behavior In this paper, we are not going to dig deep in the theoretical sphere which can be referred to academic textbooks, but revolve on the magnitude of technical analysis from the professional analysts’ perspective in Vietnam stock market Research objectives: - Understanding the demographic background of respondents (male, female, age, years of experience, and educational attainment, etc - Understanding the frequency of usage of technical analysis in stock investment - Understanding the strategies employed by Vietnam professional technicians 2 Data and methodology Historical data and market prediction are obtained from official websites of securities firms in Vietnam Along with empirical data collected from the websites, the survey approach is exerted in order to yield extraneous educated opinions from professionals as well as common practice of technical analysis in Vietnam We attempt to compare and contrast views of professionals with results from empirical analysis Technical analysis is the work-of-art, thus, interpretation is subject to be biased Also, empirical data are not directly available to serve that job Of total 60 survey questionnaires sent out, 45 questionnaires were responded and compiled, resulting in return rate of 75% (we will provide the survey questions and some of the personal information of surveyors in part and of the appendices, since some of them don’t want to public, we just present 21 surveyors) Most of respondents are technicians, the rest are fundamentalists with some technical trading background In this instruction, participants are required to fill out the questionnaires individually The respondents are asked to determine the importance of technical analysis in forecasting future price movement across three trading horizons, ranging from intraday to longer than one year There is also a collection of historical data from six securities firms over 30-week trading horizons to prove whether they got correct direction of market movements based on technical analysis Research scope The matter we want to address in this research is narrow down in how technical analyst uses technical analysis, and how important technical analysis in Vietnam market at this moment In other words, what we try to figure out is the using level or frequency and the magnitude of technical analysis among technical analyst Thus, we don’t research about how effective technical analysis is and how much return it bring about, because it’s another story to tell Due to the shortage of time and the contacts, we decided to focus the research on the technical analysts only Also, Hanoi is the area of interest since it is where the available surveyors reside The research’s quite narrow, but it does give readers a concrete view about the technical analysis’s usage in Vietnam, which no research before providing 72 John J Murphy, The Technical Analysis of the Financial Market, New York institute of Finance, 1999 Frankel, J A., & K A Froot “Chartist, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market.” American Economic Review, 80(1990), p183-185 Taylor, M P., and H Allen “The Use of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange 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M D Chinn, and I W Marsh “How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?” NBER Working Paper, No 73 7524, 2000 13 Cheung, Y W., and M D Chinn “Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey 14 of the US Market.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2001):439471 15 Oberlechner, T “Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign 16 Exchange Market.” International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(2001):81-93 17 Lo, A., and A C MacKinlay “Data Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing 18 Models.” Review of Financial Studies, 3(1990):431-467 19 Brock, W., J Lakonishock, and B LeBaron “Simple Technical Trading Rules and the S tochastic Properties of S tock Returns.” Journal of Finance, 47(1992):1731-1764 20 Kwon, K., and R J Kish “Technical Trading Strategies and Return Predictability: NYSE.” 21 Applied Financial Economics, 12(2002):639-653 22 Hudson, R., M Dempsey, and K Keasey “A Note on the Weak Form Efficiency of Capital Markets: The Application of Simple Technical Trading Rules to UK Stock Prices-1935 to 1964.” Journal of Banking & Finance, 20(1996):1121-1132 23 Bessembinder H., and K Chan “The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in the Asian Stock 24 Markets.” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(1995):257-284 25 Bessembinder H., and K Chan “Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis.”Financial Management, 27(1998):5-17 74 26 http://vneconomy.vn/20111226090439364P0C7/10-su-kien-chung-khoan-vietnam-2011-noi-buon-di-cung-hy-vong.htm 27 http://www.baomoi.com/Dau-nam-2012-chung-khoan-Viet-Nam-se-khoisac/126/7126813.epihttp://dvt.vn/2011122702063773p117c47/chung-khoannam-2011-thi-truong-lao-doc-niem-tin-sut-giam.htm 28 http://www.thethaovanhoa.vn/140N2008092002552440T14/Su-khac-thuongcua-thi-truong-chung-khoan-Viet-Nam.htm 29 http://thongtinphapluatdansu.wordpress.com/2010/10/06/10-nam-ho%E1%BA %A1t-d%E1%BB%99ng-th%E1%BB%8B-tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Dng-ch %E1%BB%A9ng-khon-vi%E1%BB%87t-nam-v-d%E1%BB%8Bnh-h %C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bng-chi%E1%BA%BFn-l%C6%B0%E1%BB%A3cgiai-do%E1%BA%A1n/ 30 http://gafin.vn/20120127112320819p0c31/thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-nam-1giap-va-12-con-so-an-tuong.htm 31 http://www.tinmoi.vn/can-dich-phat-hanh-tpcp-trong-quy-i2012-03833124.html 32 http://tbck.vn/phan-tich/17315/Danh-gia-thi-truong-trai-phieu-2011-va-du-bao2012.html 33 http://stc.thuathienhue.gov.vn/?gd=2&cn=11&newsid=20110927094858 34 http://www.baomoi.com/Phan-tich-ky-thuat-tren-TTCK-Viet-Nam-Hu-vathuc/127/4645376.epi 35 http://bantinchungkhoan.net/tin-chung-khoan-trong-nuoc/11148-nhung-trainghiem-thu-vi-ve-phan-tich-ky-thuat.html 36 http://vneconomy.vn/20080810055816755P0C7/ban-them-ve-su-dung-phantich-ky-thuat.htm 37 http://www.sggp.org.vn/taichinhnganhangchungkhoan/2010/8/232656/ 38 http://www.cophieu68.com/news_detail.php?newsid=29517 39 http://srsc.com.vn/forum/tin-tuc/7458-nam-2011-von-hoa-thi-truong-mat-hon10-ty-usd.html#axzz1rixUvaje 75 40 http://tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn/RC/N/CHCBHJ/upcom-index-giam-phien-thu-3lien-tiep.html 41 http://vietstock.vn/ChannelID/830/Tin-tuc/211359-nam-2011-von-hoa-thitruong-mat-hon-10-ty-usd.aspx 42 http://finance.vietstock.vn/bo-loc-co-phieu.htm 43 http://cafef.vn/20120409112853827CA31/thi-phan-moi-gioi-hnx-q1-hsc-dandau-ssi-tro-lai-top-10.chn 44 http://gafin.vn/20120409114159301p0c31/hsc-van-dan-dau-ve-thi-phan-moigioi-tren-hnx-trong-quy-i.htm 45 http://tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn/GL/N/CHGJJA/top-10-thi-phan-moi-gioi-trenhose:-bien-dong-manh.html 46 http://dddn.com.vn/20081008040532734cat45/ung-dung-cong-nghe-vao-phantich-ky-thuat.htm APPENDICES Table 1*: 76 Weekly Vnindex 05-09/3/2012 27-2/3/2012 20-24/2/2012 13-17/2/2012 06-10/2/2012 30-03/2/2012 16-20/1/2012 09-13/1/2012 439.6-432.11 423.43-439.6 403.3-423.43 405.2-403.3 401.74-405.2 373-401.4 354.33-373 336.73354.33 351.55336.73 356.21351.55 366.03356.21 377.6-366.03 1.7 3.8 0.4 0.8 7.7 5.3 5.2 383.88377.16 383.35383.88 379.62383.35 396.3-379.62 03-06/1/2012 1 1 2 2 2630/12/2011 1923/12/2011 1216/12/2011 0509/12/2011 2802/12/2011 2125/11/2011 1418/11/2011 0711/11/2011 3104/11/2011 2428/10/2011 1721/10/2011 1014/10/2011 0307/10/2011 Change FPTS down up up down up up up up up up up up unclear likely reserve down up, 335-365 down, band 325-360 1 0 4.3 down down, band 347-350 1.3 down down, band 350-360 2.7 down likely up down, band 360-405 1.8 down up, band 375-400 0.1 up unclear, 365-405 4.2 down likely up, band 350415 down, band 385-415 410.57-396.3 3.5 down Unclear,wt 400-420 422.07410.57 411.03422.07 414.49411.03 417.96414.49 427.6-417.96 2.7 down up, band 410-445 2.7 up up, band 400-445 0.8 down slightly down, band 410-415 up, band 405-450 slightly down, band 405-460 down up 0.8 down 2.3 down 77 3 26-30/9/2011 440.3-427.6 2.9 down down, band 425-475 19-23/9/2011 457.11-440.3 3.7 down down, 435-480 12-16/9/2011 459.92457.11 435.29459.92 404.41435.29 400.76404.41 383.92400.76 400.88383.92 405.7-400.88 0.6 down up, band 430-480 5.7 up up, band 411-461 7.6 up up, 390-430 0.9 up up, band 380-415 4.4 up down, 350-400 4.2 down down, 371-415 1.2 down Down, band 380-420 05-09/9/2011 29-01/9/2011 22-26/8/2011 15-19/8/2011 08-12/8/2011 01-05/8/2011 VNdirect Sea securities VCBS haseco rongviet up up likely up up unclear up up down up, band 396-470 up band 373-477 down, band 347-427 down, band 347-437 down, band 347-437 down, band 336-391 up, band 320-370 down, band 310-360 up sideway , or up sideway or up sideway, or up sideway, or up no report sideway, or up down up up down down no report no report down no report down down down down down down up down, band 340-370 likely up, band 355380 up, band 360-383 up up up down up no report sideway sideway Likely down no report sideway down down down unclear down, band 370-390 up, band 370-390 sideway in narrow band sideway sideway down unclear down moving in band 78 unclear up, band 370-390 down down, band 370-390 unclear down, 380-410 unclear down unclear sideway, band 396420 up, band 400-440 down, band 396-430 unclear, likely down, band 396-430 up, band 400-450 down, band 410-460 unclear Down unclear unclear up unclear unclear down down, band 430-480 up, band 420-460 no report no report no report no report up down no report no report unclear unclear down sideway, slight down sideway, slight down sideway, slight down sideway unclear of 370-390, down down unclear down down down no report up up sideway sideway, down sideway sideway, down sideway, down sideway Up up up up sideway, up sideway, down sideway sideway, down no report no report down no report down no report support 415-420 unclear down down up down down down down up up sideway, down up up up up up up unclear down down down 79 Personal information some of the surveyors while many of them don’t provide their name on the subject Name Phạm Vũ Thắng Birth-year gender Years of work 1984 1980 1987 Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam nữ Nam Nam Nam nữ Nguyễn Xuân Bình Phạm Công Bảo Bùi Tuấn Anh Trần Quang Huy Trần Tiểu Việt Sơn Đào Minh Khánh Nguyễn Minh Hưng Dương Văn Chung Nguyễn Sỹ Thuận Phùng Trung Kiên Nguyễn Tuấn Anh Nguyễn Dũng Kiên Nguyễn Đức Thụ Nguyễn Quý Trí Trần Thu Quỳnh Vũ Hà Nam Cao Văn Hưng Nguyễn Đức Thi Nguyễn Phan Cẩm Thúy The suvey questionnaires Thông tin cá nhân ( personal information): Họ tên (name): Năm sinh (year of birth): Giới tính (gender): 1982 1977 1985 1985 1984 1984 1983 1983 1984 1977 1972 1986 1980 1984 1985 1985 1985 5 5 3 80 Năm cơng tác (years of work): A/ Vai trị mức độ ảnh hưởng phân tích kỹ thuật phân tích đầu tư chứng khốn (magnitude and the influences of technical analysis in securities investing and analysis): Tần xuất sử dụng phân tích kỹ thuật giao dịch chứng khoán cho cá nhân cho khách hàng ( the frequency of usage of technical analysis in stock trading for personal account and customers) 1: ko sử dụng(don’t use), sủ dụng (just little), bt (in average),4 dùng nhiều (quite much), 100%/giao dịch (100% transaction) 2 Theo đánh giá cá nhân, mức độ ảnh hưởng phân tích kỹ thuật việc định đầu tư nào? (xin vui lòng rõ mức độ ảnh hưởng từ đến 5, ko có ảnh hg gì, có ảnh hg tuyệt đối) in your personal ideas How much the technical analysis affects the investing decision? (please state clearly the level from to 5, is don’t affect at all, is the decision depend all on it) Trong pha ngắn hạn (dưới tháng) short term Trong pha trung hạn (từ đến 12 tháng) middle term Trong pha dài hạn ( năm) long term 5 3 Báo cáo phân tích chứng khốn cơng ty ( analyzing report of securities companies) • Phân tích kỹ thuật nhắc tới báo cáo phân tích tổng qt chứng khốn hay có báo cáo phân tích riêng ? ( technical analysis is considered in the general securities analyzing report or have a separate report) a) Là phần báo cáo chung (PTKT chiếm % báo cáo chung) ( is a part of a general report ( TA take how many portion in that general report) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 81 b) Có báo cáo riêng biệt ( have a separate report) • Dự đoán di chuyển giá phân tích so với phân tích kỹ thuật trùng khớp : ko trùng khớp trung khớp, bình thường 50/50 ( the forecast about the price movement in TA comparing to FA, how matched they are? is not matched at all, is 100% matched, is just average) 4 Trước định đầu tư, anh chị có tham khảo báo cáo khuyến nghị công ty chứng khốn khác khơng? ( before making investing decision, have you take into consider other securities companies’s analyzing report) a) Không (no) b) Thỉnh thoảng (sometimes) c) Thường xun (always) Sản phẩm phân tích cơng ty có thương mại hố thị trường khơng? ( the analyzing report sold as a commodity in market) Có (yes) Khơng(no) B/Kỹ thuật phân tích chun viên phân tích (hiệu hạn chế) Technical methods of technical analysts (effect and limitations) Phần mềm áp dụng: ( the software using) a) Metastock b) Amibroker c) Phần mền khác (other) Biểu đồ hay sử dụng (chart using) a) Line chart b) Bars chart c) Candlesticks chart d) Biểu đồ khác (others) Kỹ thuật phân tích thường sử dụng? (có thể chọn nhiều đáp áp) The technical tool you usually use? ( can choose more than one) a) Chỉ số (indicators) b) Fibonacci c) Mẫu hình (pattern) 82 d) e) f) g) Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Lý thuyết DOW (DOW theory) Lý thuyết sóng Elliot (Elliot wave) Kỹ thuật khác (others) Xin vui lòng nêu rõ lý anh/chị sử dụng kỹ thuật trên? Please explain why you choose to use it/them? 83 Các nhóm số sử dụng phân tích hàng ngày? (có thể chọn nhiều đáp áp) The technical indicators that you use in analyzing daily (can choose many) Trend indicators Oscilating Volumn Indicators indicators Simple MA Money Flow Volumn Exponential Index MACD CCI Volumn+MA MA ADX Bollinger band others Rate of Change Parabolic SAR ( ROC) Relative Strength Index Stochastic William %R Xin anh/ chị nêu rõ lý sử dụng số Please explain your options Anh/ chị sử dụng kết hợp nhóm số phổ biến điều kiện kết hợp? (xin vui lịng ghi rõ nhóm số thường kết hợp phân tích) What combination of technical indications you usually use? And how you use it? 84 10 Hiệu việc kết hợp ? The effective of the combination between the indicators? a) Không hiểu (not effective) b) Bình thường ( just normal) c) Rất hiệu ( very effective) 11 Mức độ tự tin kết phân tích (1 khơng tự tin, hoàn toàn tự tin ) How much you believe in your analyzing base on TA ( 100% not just a little average kind of strong I can't be wrong 12 Di chuyển giá trùng khớp với dự đoán dựa phân tích kỹ thuật How much the price forecast by TA is match with the real movement of price 100% wrong a few right wrong=right a few 100% right wrong 13 Hạn chế sử dụng phân tích kỹ thuật thị trường Viêt Nam? What is the limitation of using TA in Vietnam market? 14 Điều kiên để áp dụng phân tích kỹ thuật thị trường viêt nam? Còn thiếu yếu tố, điều kiện gì? COMMENTS INTERSHIP REPORT ASSESSMENT Signature of supervisor ... judgment of the practice of applying technical analysis in Vietnam stock market from the professional perspective In this paper, frequency of using technical analysis, preferred trading techniques,... fills the gap of research on Vietnam market with respect to technical analysis 2.3 Overview of Vietnam stock market and history of technical analysis in Vietnam stock market 2.3.1 Overview of stock. .. Limitations of technical analysis in Vietnam stock market, judging from professional perspective .62 3.3.1 Technical analysis .62 3.3.2 Limitations of applying technical analysis