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1 INTRODUCTION since the early 1990s According to Viet Nam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) in the period 2010 - 2016, the percentage of the population aged 25 - 55 years old who have no educational background reduced to less than 1% These achievements at mainly at the primary and secondary levels of education Enrollment rate at primary schools is nearly at the rate of compulsory education while the enrollment rates at lower and upper secondary levels are generally increasing However, in consideration of enrollment rates at all levels, the higher the level of education is, the lower the rate of enrollment becomes (mostly poor students); ability to pay for educational services of the poor is low, school fees and contributions become a great burden to poor families; therefore, poor students have little opportunity to take extra classes and must spend time helping their families to earn a living, etc., having greatly affected the quality of learning It can be said that the economic situation of families has a substantial impact on children's access to educational services, especially high-quality education Education of children born in low-income families will be impeded as they cannot afford to pay for education or access to high-quality education Moreover, low income and difficult finance drive children to join labor force early with their families and fail to have sufficient conditions to go to school In addition, extra classes have been known as a common phenomenon at all levels and in different forms, and methods of teaching and learning, etc., which also causes a decrease in access to educational services for children With the purpose of analyzing factors affecting expenditure on education of Vietnamese households at all educational levels and its impact on enrollment rate, thereby providing relevant information and proposing recommendations to education policymakers, I select the research topic "Analytical models for educational indicators in Vietnam" as my doctoral thesis Rationale Investment in education and human capital is always considered as one of the most crucial factors in economic development of each country, especially for developing countries, including Vietnam On a macro level, education helps individuals in society acquire better knowledge and skills and remains a basic way to accumulate human capital, thereby having a huge impact on economic growth of each nation On a micro level, investment in education is considered as the main road to increase income, eliminate hunger and reduce poverty for households Another reason that should be mentioned is social status; highly educated people in general are always respected and appreciated by people in a society; therefore, education has been developing in both quantity and quality In Vietnam, the education right is stipulated in the Constitution, the Education Law and other legal documents of the State The 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of Viet Nam emphasized the significance of education, and considered education to be the top national policy and proposed to "complete the national education system in the direction of open education, lifelong learning and building a learning society” (Political report of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam presented at the 12th National Congress in 2016) In the past few years, Vietnam has achieved significant achievements in socioeconomic development, witnessed more than two decades of impressive economic growth and created practically unprecedented change with GDP ratio, increasing by 7% per year on an average Although the world has been facing financial crises, the general economic development trend in Vietnam is still very positive In recent years, the poverty reduction in Vietnam has reached its ideal stage: the poverty rate decreases from 57% in 1990 to about 13.5% in 2014 (Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs, 2016) However, the achievements in growth and poverty reduction in general not necessarily reflect the essence of all issues in the society Attention paid to equality and integration is commonly observed in developing countries Therefore, it is not unusual that one of its consequences puts more pressure on the education system For many Vietnamese, the safest path to achieve higher social status and salary is education Aside from high demand for education and training of the society, the knowledge economy currently developing under the impact of globalization and specifically the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) also shows thirst for that Vietnam has made great efforts to address some of these growing pressures The government has shown strong commitments and considerable efforts to expand access to education opportunities for all walks of life, especially children This commitment has been proven through the remarkable progress in terms of educational background Thesis objectives The overall objective of the thesis is to study analytical models for educational indicators in Vietnam, namely: household expenditure on education and its impact on enrollment rates at all levels In addition, the thesis aims at the following specific objectives: Analyze the current situation of Vietnamese household expenditure on education on the period of 2004 -2016 according to influencing factors having been identified in the theoretical model and the reality of enrollment rate Research the theoretical model and propose an empirical research model to analyze the indicator of household expenditure on education and provincial-level enrollment rate 3 Research factors impacting the total expenditure on education of households; factors impacting expenditure on education at higher education and secondary education levels of households In addition, the thesis also takes into consideration different influences of the factors on expenditure on education of households in urban and rural areas Research impacts of expenditure on education on provincial-level enrollment rate Based on the estimating results of empirical models, recommendations and proposals will be made in the thesis To accomplish the above research objectives, the thesis focuses on answering the following research questions: What is the current situation of household expenditure on education in Vietnam in recent years? What factors impact household expenditure on education in general and expenditure on secondary and higher education, and how they impact? How the factors impacting education spending differ between urban and rural areas? What factors impact the enrollment rate and how does expenditure on education affect the enrollment rate? Research subject and scope 3.1 Research subject The research subject of the thesis is to study analytical models for educational indicators in Vietnam, specifically indicators of household expenditure on education and enrollment rate in provinces and cities 3.2 Research scope The research scope of the thesis only focuses on studying two basic educational indicators in Vietnam namely: household expenditure on education and enrollment rate Factors impacting the total expenditure on education of households will be clarified; household expenditure on secondary and higher education via different econometric models; impact of expenditure on education (such as extra classes, tuition fees, etc.) and the state budget for education to enrollment rates at all levels of provinces and cities will also be specified Research method The thesis uses quantitative methods of research and econometric models in which data are collected from the Household Living Standard Survey and the Statistical Yearbook of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) Techniques of descriptive statistics are also used in the thesis Thesis structure In addition to the introduction, conclusion and recommendation, list of references, the thesis is structured into four chapters as follows: Chapter 1: Rationale and literature review Chapter 2: Analytical models Chapter 3: Current situation of household expenditure on education Chapter 4: Factors impacting household expenditure on education and impacts of expenditure on education on enrollment rate New contributions of the thesis The thesis mainly uses quantitative methods combined with modern econometric models of high reliability to solve certain of scientific issues of great significance in both theory and practice New ideas of the thesis are as follows: (1) The thesis clarifies the theoretical basis and provide a general review of previous studies with regard to household expenditure on education as well as points out characteristics of householders, households and household size showing impacts on household expenditure on education In addition, the thesis also assesses how education spending impacts on enrollment rates at all levels The thesis thereby has built a theoretical framework to serve as the basis for empirical models specified in subsequent parts (2) The thesis has also used the method of descriptive statistics to clearly analyze the current situation of expenditure on education of Vietnamese households according to statistical layers via VHLSS in the period of 2004-2016 (3) The thesis simultaneously uses a number of modern quantitative research models rarely used in previous studies, especially the use of panel data for these models On the other hand, the thesis also takes advantage of the panel data structure stratified in accordance with the selected models to analyze three forms of household expenditure on education in various aspects and levels and analyzes impacts of expenditure on education such as spending on extra classes, tuition and other expenses (clothing, books, contributions, etc.) and impacts of the state budget for education on enrollment rates It is expected that this thesis will serve as a prerequisite for subsequent studies with the approach of modern econometrics including panel data models, multi-grade panel data model, Tobit model with panel data, etc., to allow further analysis (4) Thesis findings collected from the empirical research model will serve as a basis for proposing certain of policy recommendations related to expenditure on education in the private sector, especially in households 1 CHAPTER RATIONALE AND LITERATURE REVIEW as an input for economic growth analysis and has shown its positive effects as tangible capital but with an increasing level The importance and positive role of human capital has always been expressively affirmed, so most households invest in human capital through education and training for their children as education is considered as public goods as well as goods recommended for people regardless of their income 1.1 Theories laying groundwork for the thesis 1.1.1 The theory of human capital and the role of education in human capital development 1.1.1.1 Concept of human capital In the dictionary of economics, capital is defined as the value of capital or investment goods used in business to generate benefits In this sense, capital means tangible capital According to Mincer Jacob et al (1974), just like tangible capital, people must invest for accumulation through education and training from which each person can have earnings 1.1.1.2 Human capital investment a Models of parental investment in children's human capital According to Yueh (2001), a life goes through three stages: the first stage is when parents will invest in their child's education, the next stage is when each individual has become an adult and is able to work to earn income a portion of which is distributed back to their parents In the third stage, they are retirees whose income comes from profits of the assets accumulated in stage two and a portion of their income is from their children Thus, investment in education gives parents two benefits one of which is directly from the distribution of future income given by their children as adults and the other is the indirect benefit gained when their well-educated children have high possibility of marrying high-income individual, thereby creating better income for the family in the future b Human capital investment via expenditure on education Education is considered as a tool to accumulate human capital, so initial human capital investments for education in include direct costs in the course of learning and income lost during that process (Schultz, TW, 1961; Becker, GS, 1964) Ehrenberg and Smith (2011) argue that human capital investment requires short-term costs and is expected to generate more profits in the future, whereby the additional cost of human capital is divided into three types: (1) direct costs including costs of admission, books and other costs; (2) lost income; (3) mental loss in the course of learning 1.1.1.3 Role of human capital Human capital plays a pivotal role in the process of economic development: (1) they are skills created by education and training, and human capital is an element of the production process combined with tangible capital and "raw" (unskilled) labor to create products; (2) it is the knowledge to create creativity which is a basic element of economic development ” (Mincer, 1981) In addition, human capital has been included 1.1.1.4 Role of education for human capital development Becker, G.S (1964) states that education and training are the most important investment in strategies of human capital development Borjas (2005) in the study of labor economics affirms that the capacity, expertise, skills and experiences are formed and accumulated through formal training, living and working process The amount of human capital accumulated is in proportion to the capacity, amount of knowledge, skills and experience that each individual gains from the process of learning, training and working Bui Quang Binh (2009) states that education and training equip people with knowledge, skills and experience that have already been accumulated, further supplemented and equipped people with new knowledge to meet life demands 1.1.2 Theory of household production function The household production function is collective models of the household behaviour developed by Behrman, Pollack and Taubman (1982) According to Kutty (2008), in the household production function model, households are considered as a place to create educational, cognitive and social-emotional results for their children by applying specific inputs These inputs include schools, learning materials, after-school tutoring, housing, living environment, time and parental supervision as well as other cognitive stimuli The model assumes that household decisions are best analyzed using the household utility function model The combined household utility function maximizes benefits, and decisions on resource allocation are made by householders (Becker, 1995) Households maximize the utility from their own education and from consuming other goods due to budget constraints 1.2 Literature review of household expenditure on education Although previous studies are conducted in different countries whose socioeconomic characteristics differ greatly, conclusions on the factors affecting household expenditure on education are of many similarities, including the group of factors as follows: 1) Characteristics of householders such as: gender, age, marital status, education and ethnic group 2) Characteristics of households such as: place of residence (urban, rural), living area, household size, number of household members at school age 3 3) Economic characteristics of households such as: total income and total expenditure of the household during the year Group of factors regarding householder characteristics Gender of householders: Research carried out by Patrinos & Psacharopoulos (1997) shows that female-headed households have the increasing likelihood of children working in Peru, others like Lloyd & Gage-Brandon (1994) and Canagarajah & Coulombe (1998) find that female-headed households in sub-Saharan Africa and Ghana have higher enrollment rate Studies by Aslam and Kingdon (2005), Huy Vu Quang (2012), Donkoh and Amgiuzuno (2011) show impacts of householder gender on expenditure on education Educational background of householders: Studies by Psacharopoulos & Arriagada (1989) and Kingdon (2001) show that educational background of parents will affect the posibility of their children attending school or not However, others, such as Handa (1996), Rosenzweig & Wolngn (1994), Lillard & Willis (1994) and Unni (1998), also point out that impacts of parents' educational background on children vary by gender Studies by Tilak (2002), Xiaolei Qian, and Russell Smith (2010) suggest that educational background of householders influences expenditure on education Age of householders: A study by Andreou (2012) shows that householders who are over 30 years old show more concerns for education than the ones under the age of 30 Donkoh and Amgiuzuno (2011) prove that householders of old age tend to have higher expenditure than young householders Group of factors regarding household characteristics Studies by Aslam and Kingdon (2005) and Andreou (2012) suggest that urban households have higher spending on education than the ones living in rural areas Studies by Xiaolei Qian, and Russell Smith (2010) and Andreou (2012) prove that the number of members attending school is correlated with household expenditure on education Economic characteristics of households: Studies of Tilak (2002) and Andreou (2012) also show that household income impacts household expenditure on education 1.3 Literature review of enrollment rate Studies on a global scale show that economic conditions affect the possibility of school attendance and education demands, typically studies carried out by Tansel (2002), MengZhao and Paul Glewwe (2007), Mariara and Kirii (2006), Al-Samarra and Tessa (1992) and Owen and Nerman (2011) There has been certain evidence of factors affecting education levels, enrollment rate and school completion in Vietnam However, most of the available evidence is related to the effect of income on education levels in which a deep understanding of impacts of long-term factors is presented For example, income is found to be correlated with the age at which children start to go to school, the number of years they attends school, their education level and test scores Up to now, the most complete analysis of the factors impacting school development is Glewwe's study in 2004 In his study, it is pointed out that the most important factors affecting the completion of primary education are children's age (inversely), educational attainment of parents (proportional), ethnic group (inversely) and teacher's degree (proportional) 5 CHAPTER ANALYSIS MODEL 2.1 Mathematical model Supposed that in each household, there is a ‘decision maker’ who decides how much to spend and what is basically being done in the household Household decision maker h have an utility function: 2.2.2.1 Panel data and multilevel panel data 2.2.2.2 Regression model of multilevel panel data Comments: Some advantages of regression model of multilevel panel data: - Consider both fixed and random effects (mixed model); - Consider the differences in groups; reduce the unequal variance; - Consider the influences within groups and among groups U h ( xih , hˆ jh , Eh ) In which: xih (i = 1, , I): goods and services, including goods such as education, health, consumer goods and services of the household h; ĥjh (j = 1, , J): education conducted by the number of members j of the household h during the review period According to Rodriguez-Gutierrez (1992), students can be considered as a production agent, who transforms this cost into qualification, through the following educational production function: - Not require balanced panel data both in space and time; - Accept the case of missing observations 2.2.2.3 Panel data model Fixed effects model The fixed effects regression model is an extended form of the classical linear regression model given by: ĥjh = A hkjh < k
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