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Cấu trúc

  • Preface

  • Acknowledgements

  • Contents

  • Author Biographies

  • Abbreviations

  • List of Figures

  • List of Tables

  • List of Boxes

  • Chapter 1: Introduction: Energy Changes

    • 1.1 Mitigating Climate Change

    • 1.2 Global Energy Priorities

    • 1.3 Beyond Aid and Mega Projects

    • References

  • Chapter 2: Spreading Renewables: The EU and Beyond

    • 2.1 EU Enlargement

    • 2.2 The Starting Situation and the BALTIC Area Energy Options

    • 2.3 Economic and Political Drivers for Change

    • 2.4 The Balkans and Beyond

    • 2.5 Subsequent Developments in Central and Eastern Europe and Beyond

    • 2.6 The Russian Potential

    • 2.7 Beyond Europe

    • References

  • Chapter 3: Spreading Renewables South: Into Africa

    • 3.1 Green Energy for Africa

    • 3.2 Ghana

    • 3.3 South Africa

    • 3.4 Kenya

    • 3.5 Swaziland and Information Servicing

    • 3.6 Technical Aid

    • 3.7 Institutional Problems: Bureaucracy and Accountability

    • 3.8 China’s Role in Africa

    • 3.9 Socio-technical Change

    • References

  • Chapter 4: Supporting and Promoting Renewables in Africa

    • 4.1 Supporting Renewables

    • 4.2 The Limits of Aid and Corporate Involvement

    • 4.3 Financing Renewable Market Expansion

    • 4.4 New Financing Initiatives

    • 4.5 Choosing the Right Technology

    • 4.6 Sustainability and Social Progress

    • 4.7 New Approaches in Africa Reviewed

    • 4.8 Conclusions: Sustainable Africa and Beyond

    • References

  • Chapter 5: Conclusions: The Future

    • 5.1 All Change

    • 5.2 Afterword

    • References

  • Index

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RENEWABLE ENERGY From Europe to Africa David Elliott and Terence Cook Renewable Energy David Elliott • Terence Cook Renewable Energy From Europe to Africa David Elliott Open University Milton Keynes, UK Terence Cook Open University Milton Keynes, UK ISBN 978-3-319-74786-6    ISBN 978-3-319-74787-3 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74787-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018933531 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations Cover pattern © Harvey Loake Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Preface Over the last ten years or so, there has been a concerted effort to support the use of renewable energy in less developed countries The long-term aim has been to reduce emissions from the use of fossil fuels, but shorter-­ term aims include providing energy sources for the many who are currently off the power grid Thus, the United Nations’ (UN) Sustainable Development Goals include providing ‘affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all’, with projects being supported across the developing world under the Sustainable Energy for All programme It has not always been easy Most of the countries targeted are relatively poor and there can be mismatches in expectations and conflicts with other development goals, with energy issues and renewables, in particular, not necessarily being high on local /national agendas This book gives an account of some of the problems encountered—for example, looking at how hard it is to make interventions in countries where there is no experience with renewables There are potential conflicts between what they want (e.g economic growth and jobs) and what agencies want to see (e.g green power capacity), what is needed (low-carbon energy) and what is available (dirty fossil fuel) Our main focus in this book is on Africa, but these problems are not unique to the developing world We also look at experiences with similar programmes in Central and Eastern Europe, some of them initiated by the European Union (EU) as part of the EU enlargement process, and some extending into relatively undeveloped countries near the EU. In the case of the EU expansion, part of the aim was to ensure that the candidate countries complied with EU directives on Renewable Energy In the case of the UN- and EU-supported v vi   PREFACE work in Africa described in this book, there was also pressure to reform policies, as a condition for receiving aid and technical assistance from the EU. In both cases, that sometimes led to conflicts Moreover, in both cases, in addition to varying local deployment issues, policies, and conflicts, there were also sometimes conflicts within and amongst the support agencies, as well as a potential for bureaucratic inefficiency Certainly, with large aid budgets being involved, there are issue of programme effectiveness and accountability The likelihood that donor countries will have their own commercial interests and may seek to build markets for equipment and services that they can supply also raises a range of political and economic issues: who are these programmes really for? What are the costs and risks of technology transfer? Can local technology and skill bases be created? It is now apparent that the development of renewables will progress apace around the world In many cases, it is the newly industrialising countries that are taking the lead, following China’s example, with China also keen to promote its influence and technology in the developing world With the West no longer necessarily in the forefront, new models of global development may now be needed This book explores the implications and looks at how the development process may and should change It draws on fieldwork carried out by Terence Cook in Central and Eastern Europe as part of an Open University (OU) project led by David Elliott, and then, in Africa, funded by the EU under the UN Sustainable Energy for All programme That programme remains a cornerstone in development efforts in the energy field, but as this book explains, revisions, alternative and additional approaches may be necessary, and indeed, seem to be emerging In a hopefully not-too-presumptuous approach, to provide a convenient framework, in the case study parts of this book, we make use of our OU teamwork, reporting on its phases and development chronologically, so as to structure our exploration of the issues and cue in the case studies from each region While we are indebted to the various EU sources of funding for this work, our account of it is an independent one Milton Keynes, UK  David Elliott Terence Cook Acknowledgements Fig 1.1 Renewables 2016—Global Status report, Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st century, open access Fig 1.2 OU EERU/NENE reproduction of a generic map 2006 Fig 2.1 ©OECD/IEA 2011 World Energy Outlook, IEA publishing Licence: www.iea.org/t&c Fig 3.1 ‘Africa’s Renewable Future: the Path to Sustainable Growth’, International Renewable Energy Agency, 2013, open access Fig 3.2 Clean Energy Ministerial Global Lighting and Energy Access Partnership (Global LEAP) Infographic, April 2015, open access Fig 3.3 Avila et al (2017) Oxfam America, reproduced with permission Fig 3.4 Dandora landfill site and Fig. 3.5 Kenyan engineers: Terence Cook Fig 4.1  UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: CDM insights portal (monthly project data), UNFCCC, Bonn, open access Fig 4.2 Wu et al (2017), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Online, copyrighted ©2017 by the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Chart Credit: Berkley Lab, reproduced with permission vii Contents 1 Introduction: Energy Changes    2 Spreading Renewables: The EU and Beyond    3 Spreading Renewables South: Into Africa   39 4 Supporting and Promoting Renewables in Africa   79 5 Conclusions: The Future 125 Index 137 ix Author Biographies David  Elliott is a professor based at the Open University (OU), UK. Elliott’s expertise is in renewable energy policy, on which he has written extensively He has worked on a range of projects, including an OU-led New Europe-New Energy programme (2003–2011), together with co-­ author Terence Cook Terence Cook  is a research fellow at the Open University, UK. Cook has worked on a series of European Union (EU)–supported projects focused on sustainable energy in Africa He has extensive fieldwork experience of projects and practices in developing countries, most recently via his involvement with the work of EU’s Technical Assistance Facility in Eastern and Southern Africa, in support of the United Nations’ Sustainable Energy for All programme xi Abbreviations Power Units GW TW MW Gigawatt – 1000 MW Terawatt – 1000 GW Megawatt – 1000 kilowatts Energy Units kWh Kilowatt-hour GWh Gigawatt-hour MWh Megawatt-hour TWh terawatt-hour Technology CSP EfW PV Concentrated Solar (thermal) Power Energy from Waste Photo-voltaic solar xiii CHAPTER Conclusions: The Future Abstract  Changing energy systems also means there will be social and economic changes Indeed, some see that as both a prerequisite and an aim Many say that this is the case in Africa, but it may also be the case for other developing countries This short final chapter reviews some of the issues that have been raised by this book in relation to possible options for technological and policy change, and looks to the future and at the wider political issues of change as the use of renewables spreads Keywords  Political change • The Marshall Plan for Africa • Renewable futures 5.1   All Change There are range of possible responses to climate change and the other environmental and resource problems that face the world There is a long list of what needs to be done in terms of both the technologies we use and our patterns of resource consumption (Hawken 2017) Some of the change options may be better than others- faster cheaper, less problematic to introduce But all will involve change Many of them involve changes to how we use energy and in the energy sources we use Our focus has been on a shift to the use of renewable energy sources, although that is clearly only part of what is needed even in terms of just energy We also © The Author(s) 2018 D Elliott, T Cook, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74787-3_5 125 126   D ELLIOTT AND T COOK need to waste less energy and address many other related resource-use issues (e.g water and land) and also wider social issues (e.g social equity) There can be conflicts between these aims, and in some cases, a need for trade-offs (Fuso Nerini et  al 2017) However, it seems clear that the adoption of renewables must be a key part of the change process, and in this book, we have looked at changes in approaches in Eastern and Central Europe, and then Africa, as examples of what has been done so far and might be done in future in developing regions, in terms of spreading the use of renewables As we have seen, the change process is well underway in the new countries in the European Union (EU), despite political upheavals and economic constraints In general, although some of the countries involved in the EU expansion were poor and relatively undeveloped, in the East especially, most had an established industrial base, and energy systems to support it As we have seen, in some, there were progressive views about the benefits of renewables, which had, to some extent, emerged from opposition to the nuclear power programme imposed by Russia—for example, in Lithuania The general subsequent shift to the political right in many these countries, as the economic context tightened, has changed the mood, but with the EU continuing to provide technical support, good progress continues to be made Indeed, as we have seen, in some cases, the renewables programmes are very large By contrast, the huge scale, political issues, and economic limits make Africa probably the hardest case, with solar and wind still mostly at a very low level, with a peak output of only around 3.6% of total current electricity plant output (Gies 2016) In many other parts of the world, renewables are doing much better and their development may be faster and easier Certainly, progress in Africa could be slow, depending on the policies adopted (Ouedraogo 2017) That includes wider changes in support policy A new approach to aid is needed The Global Justice Now group says that ‘aid spending has been driven by notions of charity, national self-­interest, and an ideological belief that free markets and multinational business can solve the world’s problems,’ noting that ‘the direction of the UK’s current aid strategy seems to be increasingly about using aid money to benefit corporations rather than communities.’ It claims that ‘Promoting free-market reforms and subsidising the private sector not only ignores the fact that development should be about rights, equality and empowerment, it also ignores decades of lived experience about the best economic strategy for a developing economy’ (Dodwell et al 2017)   CONCLUSIONS: THE FUTURE    127 As we have seen, as an alternative to this, a community-orientated approach has been called for In the context of a plan from the Desertec Industrial Initiative for large-scale corporately funded CSP (concentrated solar power) projects in the Sahara Desert, a North African activist made it clear that ‘any project concerned with producing sustainable energy must be rooted in local communities, geared towards providing and catering for their needs and centred around energy and environmental justice Projects involving large transnationals tend to take a top-down approach, increasing the risk of displacement, land-grabbing and local pollution Without community involvement, there is no guarantee that such schemes will help with alleviating poverty, reducing unemployment or preserving a safe environment’ (Hamouchene 2015) In this context, despite the proposed local focus, whether the new German Marshall Plan for Africa, and the similar EU plans we have looked at, aiming to attract significant private sector investment and create new enterprises will be an improvement, remains unclear For example, Ockwell and Byrne, looking generally at the situation in Africa, have argued that, although ‘the idea of private sector entrepreneurs driving innovation and technological change in developing countries seems to have captured the imagination of international policy-makers and donors’ since it ‘fits in neatly with normative commitments to neo-liberal ways of doing development’, in reality, it ‘it is ill-conceived for the specific circumstances that exist in a wide range of different contexts: differences in relation to types of technologies; differences in social practices facilitated by technologies; differences in socio-cultural variations of these practices; differences in levels of technological capabilities existing in different countries, regions or communities; differences in politics and political economies, and so on’ (Ockwell and Byrne 2017) It seems clear that more attention has to be given to a wider socio-­ technical approach, less concerned with hardware and more concerned with social change processes Indeed, that may be a requisite for technological success Certainly, change is needed, but it must be both in terms of energy goals and in the ways in which projects are designed, funded, and managed Nevertheless, technology can enable social change, by opening up opportunities for new social and economic developments Certainly, there have been some optimistic assertions about the future, with Africa seen as a possible growth hub (Jones 2014) As we have seen, energy change is possible technically With the right backing, the International Renewable 128   D ELLIOTT AND T COOK Energy Agency (IRENA) says Africa could get 22% of its energy from renewables by 2030 It claims that scaling up modern renewables in Africa is an affordable means to help meet fast-growing energy demand while increasing energy access, improving health, and achieving sustainability goals Renewable energy capacity additions could increase the share of modern renewables in the power sector to 50% by 2030 and maybe up to 60% of total generation (IRENA 2015a, b) A more recent study claimed that the Sub-Saharan Africa renewable electricity generation share could reach over 92% by 2050 (LUT/EWG 2017) As we have seen, though solar resources are abundant across the continent, biomass and hydro potential are best in the central and southern regions Wind resources are good in the north, and east regions, solar in the south, and geothermal energy in the Great Rift Valley As the problems with using fossil fuels mount, and demand rises, these major new resources are unlikely to be ignored, opening up new potential pathways ahead Similarly ambitious projections have been made by NGOs such as Greenpeace and WWF for Asia, notably for China, India, and Japan, the key economic leaders in that region, with 80–90% renewables scenarios being outlined, most of them including major energy efficiency programmes (Elliott 2015) Some of these countries may well head off in that direction China is clearly doing well It had around 545 GW of renewable capacity in place in 2016, supplying around 20% of its power, and it is expanding that proportion rapidly South Korea is also now following suit India is doing less well with 91GW in 2016, while Japan had 72GW (IRENA 2017) Even so, these countries, taken together, may well overtake the Western nations in the years ahead—China already has in terms of renewable capacity Vietnam leads the rest of Asia, with around 18GW in 2016, with South Korea at 10GW, followed by Thailand, Pakistan, and Indonesia, each with around 8.7GW. Some other Asian countries may develop somewhat less rapidly, depending crucially on wider political and economic developments and the changing prospects of coal, oil, and gas locally and globally As ever, there is a desperate need for local poverty-reducing green initiatives, with village-level projects being one option (INforSE 2017a) It is similar in South America Brazil is the clear leader, with 123 GW of renewables in place in 2016, but the rest are much further behind See Table 5.1 As in Africa and Asia, there will be areas where poverty, high birth rates, and poor local economic development persist   CONCLUSIONS: THE FUTURE    129 Table 5.1  Renewable capacities (MW) in South America in 2016 (IRENA 2017) Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Falklands/Maldives Fr Guiana Guyana Paraguay Peru Suriname Uruguay Venezuela 10,043 635 122,951 10,140 11,862 4,602 162 1,644 8,810 5,228 188 3,259 15,190 So, sustainable development and aid programmes of all types and at all levels will still have a major task ahead (INforSE 2017b), although in terms of technology transfer and corporate involvement, some of the ‘donor’ nations and investment sources may change, with China probably playing even more of a role—for example, in PV solar—as it seeks new markets As we have seen, it is certainly expanding its influence in Africa Japan may also become more globally active Its specific expertise in geothermal energy has already led it to work with Kenya South Korea, having recently decided to abandon its nuclear programme in favour of renewables, may also become more active in promoting innovative green energy technologies globally As renewables become increasingly competitive, we are likely to see major speculative investment programmes around the world: the renewable market is already booming, being one of the few major growth areas in an otherwise often constrained global economy Market pressures and speculation may thus accelerate the spread of renewables, even if markets are just left to run freely Moreover, the availability of aid money may speed this process up and also steer some of this development to areas in greater social and economic need The EU certainly still seems keen to continue to provide substantial aid for Africa, although increasingly ‘blended’ with private sector finance (Gotev 2017) Longer-term, the pattern may change Indeed, at some point, aid for energy projects may be no longer needed, in the same way that subsidies may no longer be needed for renewables in developed countries, 130   D ELLIOTT AND T COOK although for now, the reality is that renewables are having to compete with fossil fuels, which often still enjoy major subsidies: it is not a level playing field For example, global subsidies for coal, oil, and gas have been up to six times that available for renewables and support still continues (Bast et al 2015) Nuclear power, if anything, has received even more support over the years, typically getting up to 80% of global R&D funding for new energy technology, with operational and/or investment subsidies still being available, for example, in the USA and UK With imbalances like that, quite apart from trying to deal with uneven social and economic development issues, aid and subsidies for renewables, along with energy efficiency, are still needed As we have seen, there are many potential pitfalls with aid programmes, especially if they are commercially backed and motivated Markets, along with governments, can play a role as key drivers for change and technology development, but as a recent study based on experience in Sub-Saharan Africa concluded, effective change ‘requires moving beyond notions of a cohesive state serving as rule-enforcer and transition manager It also requires that technology be viewed more broadly, as not just as hardware that is transferred, but a set of practices and networks of expertise and enabling actors And while markets have an important role to play as vehicles for achieving broader ends, they are not an end in themselves but rather one (and not the only) tool capable of shifting sociotechnical systems in lower-carbon directions’ (Newell and Bulkeley 2016) The German Marshall Plan for Africa recognises the need for widespread change, both within Africa and outside Within Africa, it says, ‘corrupt elites still have too much influence.’ They often ‘prefer to channel their money abroad instead of investing it locally’ and, ‘let multinationals exploit the country’s natural resources without creating domestic value chains’ Externally, it says that ‘Europe’s policy on Africa was for decades often guided by its own short-term economic and trade interests’, while international corporations were ‘falling short in some areas, namely with regard to meeting local environmental and social standards and compliance regulations This has resulted in Africa losing more than one trillion US dollars in the last 50 years that could have been used for sustainable development, with illicit financial flows currently amounting to 50 billion US dollars per year 60 per cent of losses are due to aggressive tax avoidance by multinational corporations’ (BMZ 2017)   CONCLUSIONS: THE FUTURE    131 While some of this may be addressed by the sort of reforms it and the other plans propose, for example, in terms of fair trade and combating illicit financial flows, arguably a somewhat more radical approach to aid and to technological and economic change is needed than just relying on economic partnerships and the creation of more favourable local investment opportunities The global economic system is changing, with old models being challenged and new patterns of economic organisation and technology emerging, and new players entering the field, China notably, with, in that case, as yet unclear results There are obvious economic and geopolitical incentives for it to get involved, but will China be able to the ‘heavy lifting’ in Africa, supporting the development of commercial energy infrastructure, or will environmentally and socially sustainable development require the involvement of the West, which of course, also seeks market shares? The change process will be played out everywhere, including in the developing countries, with new battles over the ownership and control of industrial and commercial assets and markets being fought out, along with the wider issues of growth and sustainable consumption The energy industry is at the forefront of much of this Access to and control over coal, oil, and gas reserves have been a dominant political and economic focus, but that may not remain so indefinitely With old certainties dying and new technologies taking over, structural change is underway, around the world, including in the developing world, with new energy infrastructures and frameworks emerging (Kapika and Eberhard 2013) Kolya Abramsky has said that ‘The world-wide crises starkly poses the need to construct new world-wide relations of production and exchange that are substantially more decentralized, participatory and egalitarian than the relations which currently exist, at the same time as being ecologically sensitive The construction of a new energy system, based on a much higher proportion of renewable energy use than currently exists, is a fundamental part of this process’ He goes on ‘It is no longer a question of whether a transition will occur, but rather what form it will take Which technologies will it include and on whose terms and priorities? Who will pay the costs and who will reap the benefits? Who can harness the necessary global flows of capital, raw materials, knowledge and labor?’ However, he warns that ‘Rather than being a technical inevitability, transition will be the result of an uncertain and lengthy process of collective struggle’ (Abramsky 2010) This book has focused on the push to get renewable energy established as the main energy vector going forward, with climate change and air 132   D ELLIOTT AND T COOK ­ ollution being key drivers, aided by falling renewables prices But as p Abramsky asserts, the transition is about more than just adopting a new set of technologies It is about changing who decides which technologies to adopt and how they are used We need a change process focused on developing ways in which energy can be produced to meet social needs without damaging the planet or humanity That seems a noble struggle, relevant not just to developing countries but to the world as a whole Certainly, the transition to sustainable energy use has to be more than a technical fix It may involve social changes, but these have to be negotiated and the costs and benefits fairly distributed That has not happened in most earlier major social and economic transitions, whether in the Industrial Revolution in Europe, or the rapid industrial transition in Soviet Russia, and it has not been too apparent in the major changes since With economic and technology system change once again underway across much of the world, perhaps we can better this time 5.2   Afterword This book is based in part on extensive survey work carried out under contracts with European Commission-funded programmes We have looked at the aims and at some of the weaknesses of these and other current programmes, but there may be more to say It is often hard to reconcile the obvious poverty and needs of parts of the population, in Africa especially, with the extensive resources made available to those involved with the programmes and agencies: they are usually very well paid, and many live something of a jet set lifestyle They may work hard and with commitment, but it would be good to see local people playing more of a role: most of the agencies are relentlessly Western in recruitment terms The development and use of local technical expertise is vital However, it is not just a matter of who gets the remuneration: the emphasis of the work may need to be reconsidered, with, rather than high-­ level policy frameworks, more of a focus on practical technology action and support The structure of many of the aid programmes can make this hard—they are usually focused on meeting agency staff support costs, not on direct project investment Even so, it is possible to support local technical skill development In terms of technology focus, as we have seen, local off-grid and mini-­ grid systems are vital, but so are wider grid links There are wider plans for   CONCLUSIONS: THE FUTURE    133 supergrids, but although the World Bank/IMF and other global funds might help at some point, so far, it seems to be mainly China that is supporting new grid links, in order to ensure that its generation projects can find paying consumers It will be embarrassing if China’s essentially commercial strategies and pragmatic ‘no strings’ approaches turn out to be more effective in delivering sustainable power than the finely nuanced sociotechnical policy prescriptions emerging from the Western aid agencies and programmes Equally though, it will be devastating if projects go ahead that are poorly thought out in social and environmental terms Local involvement in selection, planning, and deployment is clearly needed, and once again, that requires the development of local technical expertise Current development policies usually emphasise ‘capacity building’ and ‘enabling environments’ in terms of technical and business skills, and clearly that is something that will be vital if local enterprise is to thrive However, the current emphasis on private sector-led projects, and the drive towards privatisation, may diminish a valuable existing source of technical capacity—the state-owned utilities They are not all hopelessly unwieldy and backward-looking, and represent a significant technical resource, in Africa especially Along with the national governments and civil society groups, they may also offer a locally-based bulwark against commercial ‘short-termist’ pressure from profit-seeking foreign companies, and hold out for ‘local content’ in projects That seems especially needed in the African context, but most developing countries need to find a way to resist exploitation by rich and powerful overseas interests, often backed, unwittingly or otherwise, by large aid agencies and/or their contracted-­out consultants Getting access to capital will always be an issue for poor developing countries, especially for large infrastructure projects, as attempts are made to expand and integrate the use of renewables Trade may well replace aid to some extent, and although there may be issues with that, it may help with smaller local projects However, it may not yield sufficient capital for major grid-link infrastructure projects for some while To get the large-­ scale funding needed for that will still involve and require major investment from overseas So, some big questions remain: what sort of trade, what sort of investment, and who will benefit most from it and from trade And what sort of jobs will emerge—at what skill level and who for? So, what is the overall prognosis? There are various agendas Climate change is only one; and it is not always seen as central in many African 134   D ELLIOTT AND T COOK countries: they have more urgent economic and health problems, as well as rapid population growth and rising demand for energy To deal with all this, they want economic growth, even it means using fossil fuel, but the renewable options are beginning to look increasingly attractive as a way to create growth For example, helped by donor aid and well-targeted government investment in new energy infrastructure, Ethiopia, one the world’s poorest countries and the second most populous in Africa, was the world’s fastest growing economy in 2017, with growth over the last decade averaging 10.5% p.a (World Bank 2017) For the future, as we have seen, the EU is looking to aid and, increasingly, to trade, as way to create and sustain employment in Africa, so as to reduce immigration Renewables are often seen as the best bet in that regard So, there may be an agenda confluence, although also some potential for conflict, not least given sometimes strong residual—and even, in some cases, expanding—commitments to fossil fuel and interest in some quarters in nuclear power The latter may not be too significant given its high cost, but for those countries in Africa heavily reliant on fossil fuel use and export, significant diversification is not high on the agenda However, that may change, given the shifts in global fossil fuel markets and the falling cost of renewables There are clearly many uncertainties, but renewables are spreading in most of Africa, as elsewhere, and hopefully, by exploring what has happened so far in some key areas, and the options available for the future, this book will help to move the debate on as attempts are made to spread the use of renewables globally References Abramsky, K (2010) Another Energy Is Possible: Sparking a World-Wide Energy Revolution Oakland: AK Press Bast, E., Doukas, A., Pickard, S., van der Burg, L., & Whitley, S (2015) Empty Promises: G20 Subsidies to Oil, Gas and Coal Production London: Overseas Development Institute https://www.odi.org/publications/10058-emptypromises-g20-subsidies-oil-gas-and-coal-production BMZ (2017) Africa and Europe – A New Partnership for Development, Peace and a Better Future Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development ­https://www.bmz.de/en/publications/type_of_publication/information_ flyer/information_brochures/Materialie270_africa_marshallplan.pdf   CONCLUSIONS: THE FUTURE    135 Dodwell, A., Provost, C., & Shutt, C (2017) Re-imagining UK Aid Global Justice Now http://www.globaljustice.org.uk/sites/default/files/files/resources/ re-imagining_uk_aid_webpages.pdf Elliott, D (2015) Green Energy Futures Basingstoke: Palgrave Pivot Fuso Nerini, F., Tomei, J., To, L.S., Bisaga, I., Parikh, P., Black, M., Borrion, A., Spataru, C., Castán Broto, V., Anandarajah, G., Milligan, B., & Mulugetta, Y (2017) Mapping Synergies and Trade-offs Between Energy and the Sustainable Development Goals Nature Energy Online November 20 http://www nature.com/articles/s41560-017-0036-5 Gies, E (2016, November 2) Can Wind and Solar Fuel Africa’s Future? 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Renewable Energy World http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2014/08/could-africa-be-the-global-epicenter-of-renewable-energy-by-2030.html Kapika, J., & Eberhard, A (2013) Power Sector Reform in Africa HSRC Press http://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/product.php?cat=26&productid=2305 136   D ELLIOTT AND T COOK LUT/EWG (2017) Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy Berlin: Lappeenranta University of Technology and Energy Watch Group http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/FIT-Tender_Fell_PolicyPaper_ EN_final.pdf A Presentation on Sub Saharan Africa is at: https://www.researchgate net/publication/320758165_Global_100_RE_System_Sub-Saharan_Africa Newell, P., & Bulkeley, H (2016, May 31) Landscape for Change? International Climate Policy and Energy Transitions: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa Climate Policy http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062 2016.1173003 Ockwell, D., & Byrne, R (2017) Sustainable Energy for All: Innovation, Technology and Pro-Poor Green Transformations London: Routledge Ouedraogo, N (2017) Africa Energy Future: Alternative Scenarios and Their Implications for Sustainable Development Strategies Energy Policy, 106, 457–471 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517301684 World Bank (2017) Global Economic Prospects, 2017 Washington, DC: World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ethiopia/overview Index A Albania, 7, 12, 21–23, 25, 26 Asia, 32, 34, 100, 103, 116, 128 Croatia, 7, 12, 19–26 CSP, See Concentrated solar power Cyprus, 9, 11, 22, 25 B Biomass, 11, 12, 14–16, 20, 23, 27, 28, 31, 32, 34, 45, 48, 49, 53, 58, 59, 61, 82, 89, 96, 102–104, 128 Bulgaria, 9, 11–13, 18–20, 24–26 D Denmark, 3, 6, 16, 20, 56, 73, 104 C China, vi, 4, 32, 33, 69–73, 81, 82, 84, 89, 92, 102, 117, 128, 129, 131, 133 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), 21, 22, 88, 89, 91, 104 Climate change, 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 39, 46, 61, 97, 102, 106, 116, 125, 131, 133 Concentrated solar power (CSP), 31, 56, 58, 96, 97, 100, 101, 127 Congo, 40, 46, 48, 49, 62 E Egypt, 34, 44, 48, 49, 100 Electrification, 41, 45, 51, 52, 54, 55, 57, 71, 94, 115 Electrification Financing Initiative (ElectriFI), 93–95, 107 Emission Trading System (EU-ETS), 11–12, 17, 91 Employment, 6, 11, 13, 16, 18, 55, 89, 105–110, 115, 127, 134 Energy efficiency, 16, 17, 23, 34, 44, 67, 106, 112, 116, 118, 128, 130 Energy saving, 6, 96, 104 See also Energy efficiency Estonia, 9, 11, 14, 15, 20, 24–26 © The Author(s) 2018 D Elliott, T Cook, Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74787-3 137 138   INDEX Ethiopia, 48, 49, 60, 66, 69, 80, 82, 101, 115, 134 EU, See European Union European Commission (EC), 66, 67, 92–94, 132 European Investment Plan (EIP), 93 European Union (EU), v, vi, 9, 64–66, 68, 69, 71, 72, 80, 81, 83, 86, 87, 91–95, 100–103, 105, 106, 109, 110, 114, 115, 126, 127, 129, 134 External Investment Plan (EIP), 92, 93, 106, 109 F Feed-in tariff (FiT), 12, 20, 22, 23, 29, 51–54, 86, 87, 91, 95 G Geothermal, 20, 22, 23, 27, 31, 45, 46, 58, 100, 128, 129 Germany, 3, 6, 12, 20, 26, 30, 56, 104, 106, 110 Ghana, 44, 48–54, 71, 80, 82, 95, 115 Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariff (GETFiT), 53, 95 H Hungary, 9, 11, 19, 20, 22, 24–26 Hydro, 6, 11, 13–16, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, 31, 32, 43, 44, 46, 48–50, 53, 56, 58, 61, 65, 69, 71, 73, 82, 84, 89, 92, 97, 113, 128 I IEA, See International Energy Agency Independent Power Producers (IPPs), 91, 92, 95, 112, 113 Independent power projects (IPPs), 91 India, 33, 87, 128 International Energy Agency (IEA), 27, 69–72, 82, 92, 117 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 40, 44, 64, 73, 80, 87, 88, 116, 127–128 IRENA, See International Renewable Energy Agency J Jobs (job creation), v, 46, 47, 92, 104–106, 108, 110 See also Employment K Kazakhstan, 21, 26, 31–33 Kenya, 46, 48, 49, 58–60, 63, 66, 68, 69, 73, 80, 86, 101, 108, 129 Kosovo, 7, 12, 22, 23, 26 L Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), 32, 33 Latvia, 9, 11, 13–15, 18, 20, 24–26 Lithuania, 9, 11–16, 26, 126 LUT, See Lappeenranta University of Technology M Marshall Plan for Africa, 92, 109, 110, 115, 127, 130 Mini-grid, 43, 51–53, 56, 64, 65, 101, 114 Mobile phones, 59, 62, 101, 107 Morocco, 34, 44, 48, 50, 100, 101 Mozambique, 46, 48, 50, 66, 95  INDEX     N Nairobi, 59, 60, 63, 102 Namibia, 49, 50, 95 Net metering, 53, 54, 87 Nigeria, 46, 48, 50, 80, 91, 115 Nuclear power, 2, 9, 12, 13, 19, 29, 57, 58, 126, 130, 134 O Off-grid, 4, 18, 40, 41, 43, 44, 48, 51–57, 59, 63, 64, 71, 80, 81, 94, 97, 101, 114 Oxfam, 43, 114, 115 P Photo-voltaic (PV), 29, 61, 100 Poland, 9, 11, 19, 20, 22, 24–26 Power Africa, 80, 81, 84, 94, 107 R Renewable energy, v, 3–6, 9–13, 16, 17, 117, 125, 128, 131 Romania, 9, 11–13, 18–20, 22, 24–26 Russia, 19, 21, 27–33, 113, 126, 132 Rwanda, 50, 91, 99, 115 S Solar, 29, 31, 34, 46, 56, 58, 87, 89, 96, 97, 100, 103, 126 Solar home systems (SHS), 54, 58, 64, 86 Solar PV (Solar), 41, 51–53, 86, 87, 96, 97, 99, 104 South Africa, 43, 44, 46, 48–50, 54–58, 66, 82, 87, 91, 92, 99, 100, 115 South America, 4, 87, 100, 103, 116, 128, 129 Sugar cane, 61 Supergrid, 15, 28, 31, 32, 34, 101, 133 139 Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL), 44, 50, 51, 54, 67, 71, 80 Swaziland, 50, 61, 66 T TAF, See Technical Assistance Facility Technical Assistance Facility (TAF), 55, 57, 59, 60, 62–67, 72, 116 Tidal power, 27, 28, 100 Transmission, 44, 69, 97 See also Supergrid U U.S. African Development Foundation (USADF), 81 U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), See USA (US, USAID) Uganda, 50, 53, 62, 66, 68, 91, 95, 99 UK, 12, 13, 19, 26, 35, 60, 82–86, 95, 100, 113, 126, 130 UN, See United Nations UN Sustainable Energy for All, v, vi, 4, 24 United Nations (UN), v, 16, 22, 47, 50, 54, 80, 84 USA (US, USAID), 53, 80, 81, 86, 94, 105, 107 W Wave power, 58, 59, 100 Wind power, 6, 11, 12, 14–16, 19–23, 26–29, 31–34, 44, 46, 48, 50, 53, 56–59, 61, 65, 68, 73, 82, 86, 87, 89, 91, 96, 97, 99–101, 103–105, 126, 128 World Bank, 44, 53, 62, 82, 91, 92, 133 Z Zambia, 46, 48, 50, 65, 66, 71, 95 .. .Renewable Energy David Elliott • Terence Cook Renewable Energy From Europe to Africa David Elliott Open University Milton Keynes, UK Terence Cook Open University Milton Keynes, UK... 4.7 Box 4.8 Box 4.9 Energy in the Baltic States Renewables in Russia—Not Much Interest Power Pool Trade in Africa African Energy Overview Energy from Waste in Nairobi African Development... simple message from these statistics is that the new EU countries looked set to see a rapid expansion of renewable energy For example, Estonia was attempting to expand its renewable energy resources

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