How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation By Harry Browne First published in 1970 Reprinted many times since Copyright © 1970 by Arlington House Copyright © 1971 by Harry Browne Copyright © 2012 (including Introduction and Foreword) by Lipton Financial Services, Inc and Pamela Browne All rights reserved according to International Law No part of this book may be reproduced for public or private use without the written permission of the publisher Introduction by Publisher - Roger Lipton Harry Browne's economic wisdom substantially helped this then young Wall Street analyst survive the financially turbulent 1970s His predictions proved correct and timely for all the right reasons, rare among financial commentators His views of forty two years ago are even more relevant today, as we contend with international financial strains that are an order of magnitude larger His timeless wisdom should be incorporated into financial discussions among policy makers and their constituencies worldwide We are fortunate to have the internationally respected monetary scholar, James Grant, provide his foreword which follows In 1974 I presented Harry Browne to my clients (at Carnegie Hall in NYC), and I am privileged in 2012 to present him once again Roger Lipton - April 2012 Roger Lipton is founder of Lipton Financial Services, Inc., a money management firm based in New York City 2012 Foreword by James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer In 1970, between these very covers, Harry Browne predicted the signal monetary event of the late 20 century But it was no mere prediction he served up to what would prove to be a vast and grateful readership “How You can Profit from the Coming Devaluation” was both title and subject Nowadays, with the clarity of hindsight, anyone can see that the days of the gold-backed dollar were numbered Pure and simple, the Treasury was running out of gold It was not so clear when Browne wrote, however The financial and economic establishment insisted that nothing was wrong, or could be wrong, with the U.S dollar, (economic science having allegedly advanced well beyond the point at which gold had any relevance to the value of a currency, or so the argument went) Browne, however, was unswayed “Since we live in an uncertain world,” he undogmatically couched his forecast, “where all relevant factors can never be known, it would be foolish of me to make a prediction as to either when or if Instead, let me say that I expect a devaluation to occur sometime between this coming Saturday and the end of 1971.” And so it came to pass On Aug 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon abandoned the gold dollar, or what was left of it, and redefined the greenback as a piece of paper backed by nothing but the good intentions of the government that printed it No more could an official American creditor —a central bank or a government, for instance — exchange dollars for gold at the statutory, $35-perounce rate In American finance, the Age of Hamilton was over, the Age of Greenspan and Bernanke (and of their assorted Federal Reserve predecessors) just beginning Browne's was a superb forecast, and this is a remarkable book A two-time presidential standard-bearer for the Libertarian Party, Harry Browne wrote for everyman A little like the author Henry Hazlitt, he had the gift of conveying complex ideas in simple language Nobody, reading his parable of the counterfeiters in the chapter headed “What is Inflation,” can fail to absorb the essence of the process of currency debasement Governments will always try to foist unsound money in place of gold and silver, Browne observed, and —once again —he was as right as rain In 1973, three years after the first edition of this volume appeared, the 20 leading nations of the world solemnly pledged that the special drawing right, or SDR, “will become the principal reserve asset and the role of gold and of reserve currencies will be reduced.” Needless to say, the SDR has made no such headway, certainly not against gold Browne, who died in 2006, did not live to see the full-blown consequences of the monetary ideas he so uncompromisingly opposed (the Great Recession and associated financial thunder and lightning were to come two years after his death) But I am quite sure that they would not have surprised him I commend this volume to every investor and to one particular central banker: For your sake and ours, Ben Bernanke, please read every word James Grant - April, 2012 Original Flaps and Back Cover How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation HARRY BROWNE Those who believe that a devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold would have little effect upon us have been seriously misled, maintains financial analyst Harry Browne In spite of the soothing words of Keynesian economists, most people will suffer crippling losses - while others will enjoy great gains Will you be one of those who come out smiling - or weeping? Those who lose from devaluation will be those who accept conventional investment advice Those few who come out ahead will be those who are nor afraid to stand apart from the crowd and Who understand why devaluation makes investing “a whole new ball game.” Starting with fundamentals that most economists ignore, Harry Browne shows the chilling similarities between the late Twenties and today And because an investor cannot survive a period of devaluation without a solid understanding of the nature of money and how it behaves, Harry Browne spells it out in language any reasonably intelligent layman can grasp Although devaluation is bound to come, Browne shows that other economic events may come first What happens in case of continued inflation at the current rate? Runaway inflation? A short-term recession? A full-scale depression? Harry Browne analyzes your investment program in light of each - but always in light of the devaluation that is now inevitable Should you be in stocks and mutual funds? Commodities? Should you sell short? What about real estate? Home ownership? Undeveloped land? Diamonds? \Works of art? Cash? Bonds? Treasury bills? Life insurance? Swiss francs and other foreign currencies? Gold stocks? Silver stocks? Coins? Silver bullion? Other, more sophisticated investments ? But Mr Browne doesn't leave you hanging In the most important section in the book, he spells out several investment Programs that cove ever economic contingency, Whether you can write a check for $1000 or $1,000,000; whether your object is capital growth, income, safety or some combination of all three, Hairy Browne shows you how to achieve them when devaluation strikes - and all the conventional rules bring you not prosperity but disaster It can happen here But with this book, you're ready to profit from it TAX DEDUCTIBLE If you maintain an investment portfolio, this book can qualify as a tax-deductible expense, as information you use for investment decisions ABOUT THE AUTHOR HARRY BROWNE is an investment counselor for the few and a lecturer who has addressed hundreds of thousands of concerned investors over the past decade His most popular subjects include “The Economics of Success,” “The Art of Profitable Living” and “The Economics of Freedom.” Through most of the Sixties Mr Browne's column on economics, “The American 'Way,” was syndicated in more than one hundred newspapers' Here is the book that,., Shows you the nature of the economic crisis to come - and how you can make it work for you Explodes investment fallacies that can bring you to financial ruin in a time of devaluation Reveals how the money managers manipulate our currency, our banking system, our economy Looks ahead to the financial collapse of the welfare state Explains the continuing interest in gold and silver - and how to take advantage of it Helps you create a depression-proof investment program that will build up your holdings in good times or bad This book also answers questions important to your financial future… What Is devaluation? Is there anything immoral about it? Do bankers cause high interest rates and inflation ? What are the ultimate causes of inflation ? Is “a little inflation” inevitable? Safe? Desirable? To Pamela Acknowledgments In the text of this book, I've attempted to call attention to the sources of various ideas cited Wherever possible, I have mentioned the names of the individuals who are responsible for passing the ideas on to me In addition, however, I'm very grateful to several individuals for more general aid in helping me to comprehend this subject In the field of money, the most important help has come from the writings of Murray Rothbard Also, I appreciate the explanations of Henry Hazlitt and Wilmot Hunter With regard to the development of precise explanations and definitions, I've learned a great deal from Alvin Lowi and Andrew Galambos Also, I'm grateful to senior editor Llewellyn Rockwell for polishing off the rough edges in the text And to Arlington House for its willingness to publish books with uncommon viewpoints Needless to say, I am the only person responsible for any conclusions reached in this book Table of Contents The New Millionaires What Is Money? What Is Paper? What Is Inflation? The Government And Money How To Create Money Mass Confusion Inflation Starts To Gallop Who Will Protect You? 10 What Lies Ahead? 11 Depression Or Runaway Inflation? 12 If There's A Devaluation 13 The Effects Upon Your Business 14 Standard Inflation Hedges 15 Standard Depression Hedges 16 “Real Money” Hedges 17 The Balance Sheet 18 The Investment Program 19 How To Do It 20 The New Millionaires GLOSSARY BIBLIOGRAPHY INDEX Carnegie, Andrew, 119, 176 Cash 119-120, 142-146,148-149, !54-!55, Checking accounts, 37-38, 39-44, 63, 67, 149 Chicago Mercantile Exchange, 110 China, 57 Cliches & fallacies, 44-45, 50, 57, 60-61, 63, 66-68, 70, 86, 94-95, 99100, 105, 109-110, 113, 126, 135-136, 170-171, 173-176 Coins copper-nickel, 20, 44, 73 numismatic prospects, 117-118 purpose of, 17-18, 178 shortage of, 72-73,127 (see also Silver coins) Commercial property, 111-112, 142-146 Commodities, 110-111, 142-146 Commodity regulation, 62, 111 Convertible bonds, 121 Counterfeiting, 24-26, 28-30, 37 puzzle, 24-26 Coxe, Charles D., 183 Credit government control over,82-83,112,114 nature of, 20-21 use of, to create paper money, 39“43> 46 Cripps, Sir Stafford, 101-102 Currency, 43-45, 63, 67, 84-85, 87-91, 126, 139-140, 166, 178 Deflation, 58-60, 63-65, 74, 76, 79-80, 97-98, 108, 119-125, 144, 178 Demand deposits, 21, 37-38, 178-179 Department of Agriculture, 110 Depression causes of, 53, 58-60, 65-66,97 characteristics of next, 81-84, 104-106, 143 defined, 79-80, 178 differentiated from recession, 58, 65-66, 79-80, 178 effects upon investments, 108, 110, 112, 114, 116-117, 120-124, 129, 131-133, 136-138, 140, 143-144, 146 government’s prolongation of, 65-67, 80-81, 178 history of 1929, 3-6, 61-67, 80, 173-174, 182-183 popular hedges against, 119-125 possibility of, 58-60, 68-70, 73-76,78,97-98, 118, 126, 170-174 protection against, 83-84, 104106, 115, 119, 126, 132-133, 140, 148-152, 155-156, 170-177 Desert property, 115-117, 142-146 Devaluation by several nations, 99-100, 139-141 effects upon exports, 92-93, 98-99 effects upon imports, 93-96, 98-99 effects upon individuals, 6, 87, 96-98 effects upon specific investments, 109, 111-112, 115, 117-118, 120-123, 125, 129, 131-136, 138-141,144-146, 148-152, 155, 164-166 effects upon the economy, 96-98,104 explanation of, 59-60, 87-102, 178 how to profit from, 129, 131, 133-135,139-141,144, 148-149, 151152, 164-166 in 1934, 66 in other countries, 98-99, 139-141 of British pound, 92, 100-101 possibility of, 74-76, 102, 131, 164 timing of, 101-102, 147-148 Diamonds, 117-118, 142-146 Direct exchange, 9, 178 Dividends on gold stocks, 132, 165 Economic conditions —1920-1929, 3-5, 173-174 “Economic miracle” 75 Economic Research Counselors, 161, 184 Endowments, 123-124, 142-146 Exchange rates, 89-93, l8 Exports, 62, 92-93, 98-99 Farm programs, 4-5, 62, 81 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., 43-44, 83 Federal Reserve Systems activities during 1920s, 4-5, 61-63, 80 structure of, 36-37, 39, 43, 182 Federal Trade Commission, 62 Fehrenbach, T R., 184 Flexibility (see Liquidity) Foreign aid, 62, 67, 85 Fortunes created during crises, 3, 5-7,83-84,119,150,175-177 Forward contracts, 161 Fractional reserve banking, 39-43, 83 France, 57, 89, 100, 131,182 French franc, 88-91, 99, 139, 182 Futures’ markets 62, 110-111, 142-146 Futures Trading Act, 62 German mark, 88-91, 99-100, 139 Germany, 57, 89, 99-100, 131 Gilbert, Robert A., 184 Gold advantages as money, 14-15, 70 as an investment, 98, 126, 129136, 138-139, 142-146, 184 bullion, 130-131, 142-146, 166 coins, 17-18, 85-86, 138-139, 142-146, 159-160, 167-169 commercial & industrial uses, 15 confiscation by government, 36, 60, 66, 129, 138 drain, 4, 58-60, 63, 66, 90, 97, 100-102, 130 puzzle, 26-28 redemption ratios, 59-60, 8990,92, 101, 131, 133-134, 141 regulations, 181 stocks, 132-136, 142-146, 149-152,164-166, 167-169, 184 supply of, 63, 67, 69, 181 Government borrowing, 33-34, 56,62 establishment of monetary control, 35-36 methods of financing, 33-34 (see also United States government) Great Britain, 62, 88-93, 100-101 Gresham’s Law, 72-73 Hazlitt, Henry, 101, 182-183 Highway construction, Holland, 57 Homestake Mining Co., 133 Hoover, Herbert C, 5, 66, 80-81, 102 Hyper-inflation (see Runaway inflation ) Imports, 58, 89, 93-96, 98-99 Indicator Digest, 172 Indirect exchange, 9-12, 179 Indonesia, 57 Industrial property, 111-112, 142-146 Inflation, 182, 184 automatic growth of, 56-57 consequences of, 48-60, 73-76, 84-86,90,94, 137, 142 defined, 28-30, 179 effect upon business decisions, 26, 49-54, 104-106, 142 extent of, 63-68, 172 methods of, 29-30, 34, 37-43 (see also Runaway inflation) Interest, 20 Interest Equalization Tax, 165 Interstate Commerce Commission, 62 Investment budget, 167-169 Investment program, 147-169, 171 Italy, 62 Jewelry, 117-118, 142-146 Johnson, Lyndon B., 127 Keynes, John Maynard, 62 Labor unions, 34, 47, 81, 94-95 Legal Tender Law, 35, 57 Leverage, 112, 160-164 Life insurance, 123-124, 142-146 Lincoln, Abraham, 85 Liquidity, 83-84, 104-106, 112,114-117, 119-121, 129, 131, 133, 138141, 143, 146, 148-152,155-156 Los Angeles Times, 110 Margin buying, 64, 129, 138, 159, 160-164 Mint, 17 Mises, Ludwig von, 57, 181-182 Mitchell, George W., 172 Money books on, 181-182 defined, 12, 68, 179 origin of, 8-16 receipts, 19, 179 substitutes, 19, 44, 69, 178-180 supply of, 21-23, 44 warehouses, 18-21 (see also Paper money) Mortgages as an investment, 121-123, 142-146 on your property, 112, 114-115 “Multiple earnings“ fallacy, 135-136 Mutual funds, 108-110, 142-146 Nixon, Richard M., 75, 82, 102 O’Brien, Robert J., 110 Pacific Coast Coin Exchange, 159 Palladium, 130 “Paper Gold,“ 70 Paper money, 179 attributes necessary to be useful, 19-20 end of usefulness, 84 purpose of, 18-20 supply of, 44-45, 63, 67, 172, 179 Patriotism, appeals to, 175-176 Patterson, Robert T., 182 Pension programs, 123-124, 142-146 Platinum, 130 Poland, 62 Precious metals, other than gold & silver, 130 Prices as affected by deflation, 26-28, 64-66, 77-78, 108, 120-125,132 as affected by inflation, 24-26, 28-32, 34, 38, 50-52, 62-67, 76, 79-80, 97-98 general price level formula, 22-23,44, 178 in a recession, 77-78, 120 Public works, 4-5, 81 Puts, 125 Railroad regulation, 62 Railway Labor Act, 62 Real estate, 65, 84, 86, 97, 111-117, 142-146 Real money defined, 179 Recession as part of inflationary cycle, 67, 74-78, 142 causes of, 26, 53, 94-98,144 characteristics of, 26, 53, 77-78, 79-80, 108 defined, 53, 79-80,179 effects upon businesses, 25-26, 104-106 effects upon investments, 108, 110, 112, 114, 116-117, 120, 122124, 129, 131-132, 136-138, 140, 143, 146 of 1921, 63 popular hedges against, 119-125 protection against, 104-106, 148-150,152 Rentals, 111-112, 142-146 Reserve requirements, 39-43, 61 Retirement plans, 123-124, 142-146 Retreat, 86, 116-117, 144, 149-152, 166-169, l84 Rickenbacker, William F., 128, 181, 183-184 Riots, 86,109,112,114,149,151,166 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 66, 80-81 Rothbard, Murray N., 5, 61, 181-183 Runaway inflation causes of, 56-57 defined, 57, 179 effects upon investments, 109110, 112, 114, 116-117, 120124, 129, 131, 133, 136-140, 144, 146 possibility of, 58, 67-69, 73-76, 97-98, 118 protection against, 115, 129, 131, 133, 136-140, 148-149, 151152, 156, 159, 166-167 results of, 57, 84-86, 120 Rutner, Jackson & Gray, 165 Savings accounts, 38, 45, 119-120, 142-146, 149-152, 155-156 Savings & loan associations, 121-122, 149 Scientific method, 147-148 Short selling, 124-125, 142-146 Signals of the market, 172-174 Silver advantages as money, 14-15, 70 as protection, 126 bullion, 127-131, 136-138, 142-146, 149-152, 160-164, 167-169 commercial & industrial uses, 15, 127-128, 183 effect of devaluation upon, 90-92,95-96,98, 129 futures, 111, 130, 146 production of, 128, 183 stocks, 136, 142-146 supply and demand of, 127-128, 158, 183-184 Silver coins, 45 as investment, 136-139, 142146, 149-152, 156-159, 164, 167-169 as numismatic value, 117-118, 156,159 as silver, 127-128, 156-159 as spending money, 85-86, 112, 137-138, 142-146, 149-152, 156159, 167-169 melting of, 128, 156-158 premiums charged for, 156-159 silver dollars, 156 U.S government supply of, 127-128 Smith, Jerome F., 128-129, 184 South Africa, 132-134, 136, 164-165 South African rand, 164 Special Drawing Rights, 70 Specialization of labor, Stephens, Don and Barbara, 184 Stock market activity 1928-1929, 5, 63-65, 173-174, 182 margin accounts, 64 prospects, 97, 108-110, 124125, 142-146, 154 regulation, 4, 62 Swiss banks, 140-141, 149, 151, 155-156, 161, 163-166, 184 Swiss franc, 88, 90-91, 99-100, 139141, 142-146, 149-152, 155-156, 163, 167-169 Swiss National Bank, 140 Switzerland, 99-100, 164 Sylvester, Arthur, 101 Term insurance, 123-124 Time deposits, 21, 38, 180 Timing of events, 101-102, 147-148, 171-174 Tokens, 20, 44, 180 Treasury bills, 120-121, 142-146 Treasury Department, U.S., 127-128 Unemployment, 5, 47, 65, 80, 95 United States government controls over economy, 4-6, 45, 61-63, 81-82, 106, 111, 120, 122, 129, 135, 143, 183 efforts to fight depression, 8083, 119-122, 183 Wages, 94-95 War Finance Corporation, 62 Weber, John H., 165 White, Andrew Dickson, 57, 182 World currencies, 70 ... Money” Hedges 17 The Balance Sheet 18 The Investment Program 19 How To Do It 20 The New Millionaires GLOSSARY BIBLIOGRAPHY INDEX HOW YOU CAN PROFIT FROM THE COMING DEVALUATION CHAPTER The New Millionaires... grateful readership How You can Profit from the Coming Devaluation was both title and subject Nowadays, with the clarity of hindsight, anyone can see that the days of the gold-backed dollar... that they preyed on the misfortunes of others Rather, they had the foresight to see what was coming and to provide for themselves accordingly They made big profits and their new wealth formed the