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Chapter 11 - The international monetary system. In this chapter, students will be able to understand: Describe the historical development of the modern global monetary system, explain the role played by the World Bank and the IMF in the international monetary system, compare and contrast the differences between a fixed and a floating exchange rate system,...
Global Business Today 8e by Charles W.L Hill © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. Chapter 11 The International Monetary System © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 112 Introduction Question: What is the international monetary system? The international monetary system refers to the institutional arrangements that govern exchange rates 1.Floating exchange rate system 2.Dirty float 3.Fixed exchange rate system 4.Pegged exchange rate system © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 113 Introduction In a floating exchange rate system the foreign exchange market determines the relative value of a currency In a dirty float the value of a currency is determined by market forces, but with central bank intervention if it depreciates too rapidly against an important reference currency In a fixed exchange rate system currencies are fixed against each other at a mutually agreed upon value In a pegged exchange rate system the value of a currency is fixed to a reference country and then the exchange rate between that currency and other currencies is determined by the reference currency exchange rate © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 114 The Gold Standard Question: What is the gold standard? • The gold standard refers to the practice of pegging currencies to gold and guaranteeing convertibility • Dates back to ancient times when gold coins were a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value • The exchange rate between currencies was based on the gold par value the amount of a currency needed to purchase one ounce of gold • The key strength of the gold standard was its powerful mechanism for simultaneously achieving balanceoftrade equilibrium by all countries © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 115 The Gold Standard Question: When did the gold standard end? • The gold standard worked fairly well from the 1870s until the start of World War I • After the war, in an effort to encourage exports and domestic employment, countries started regularly devaluing their currencies • Confidence in the system fell, and people began to demand gold for their currency putting pressure on countries' gold reserves, and forcing them to suspend goldconvertibility TheGoldStandardendedin1939 â2014byMcGrawưHillEducation.Thisisproprietarymaterialsolelyforauthorizedinstructoruse.Notauthorizedforsaleordistributioninanymanner.Thisdocument maynotbecopied,scanned,duplicated,forwarded,distributed,orpostedonawebsite,inwholeorpart. 11ư6 TheBrettonWoodsSystem Anewinternationalmonetarysystemwasdesignedin 1944inBrettonWoods,NewHampshire The goal was to build an enduring economic order that would facilitate postwar economic growth The Bretton Woods Agreement established two multinational institutions: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) to maintain order in the international monetary system The World Bank to promote general economic development © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 117 The Bretton Woods System Under the Bretton Woods Agreement: The U.S. dollar was the only currency to be convertible to gold, other currencies would set their exchange rates relative to the dollar Devaluations were not to be used for competitive purposes A country could not devalue its currency by more than 10% without IMF approval © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 118 The Collapse of the Fixed System Question: What caused the collapse of the Bretton Woods system? The collapse of the Bretton Woods system can be traced to U.S. macroeconomic policy decisions (1965 to 1968) • During this time, the U.S. financed huge increases in welfare programs and the Vietnam War by increasing its money supply which then caused significant inflation Speculationthatthedollarwouldhavetobedevalued relativetomostothercurrenciesforcedother countriestoincreasethevalueoftheircurrencies relativetothedollar â2014byMcGrawưHillEducation.Thisisproprietarymaterialsolelyforauthorizedinstructoruse.Notauthorizedforsaleordistributioninanymanner.Thisdocument maynotbecopied,scanned,duplicated,forwarded,distributed,orpostedonawebsite,inwholeorpart. 11ư9 TheCollapseoftheFixedSystem The Bretton Woods system relied on an economically well managed U.S So, when the U.S. began to print money, run high trade deficits, and experience high inflation, the system was strained to the breaking point The Bretton Woods Agreement collapsed in 1973 © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 1110 Floating Exchange Rate Regime Question: What followed the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system? • Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement, a floating exchange rate regime was formalized in 1976 in Jamaica • The rules for the international monetary system that were agreed upon at the meeting are still in place today © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 1111 Floating Exchange Rate Regime At the Jamaica meeting, the IMF's Articles of Agreement were revised to reflect the new reality of floating exchange rates Under the Jamaican agreement: Floating rates were declared acceptable Gold was abandoned as a reserve asset Total annual IMF quotas the amount member countries contribute to the IMF were increased to $41 billion (today, this number is $383 billion) © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 1112 Floating Exchange Rate Regime Since 1973, exchange rates have become more volatile and less predictable because of: The oil crisis in 1971 The loss of confidence in the dollar after U.S. inflation jumped between 1977 and 1978 The oil crisis of 1979 The rise in the dollar between 1980 and 1985 The partial collapse of the European Monetary System in 1992 The 1997 Asian currency crisis The global financial crisis of 20082010 and the EU sovereigndebtcrisisduring2010ư2011 â2014byMcGrawưHillEducation.Thisisproprietarymaterialsolelyforauthorizedinstructoruse.Notauthorizedforsaleordistributioninanymanner.Thisdocument maynotbecopied,scanned,duplicated,forwarded,distributed,orpostedonawebsite,inwholeorpart. 11ư13 Fixedvs.FloatingExchangeRates Question:Whichisbetterafixedexchangerate systemorafloatingexchangerate system? Disappointmentwithfloatingratesinrecent yearshasledtoreneweddebateaboutthe meritsofafixedexchangeratesystem Afloatingexchangeratesystemprovidestwo attractivefeatures: 1.Monetarypolicyautonomy 2.Automatictradebalanceadjustments â2014byMcGrawưHillEducation.Thisisproprietarymaterialsolelyforauthorizedinstructoruse.Notauthorizedforsaleordistributioninanymanner.Thisdocument maynotbecopied,scanned,duplicated,forwarded,distributed,orpostedonawebsite,inwholeorpart. 1114 Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates A fixed exchange rate system is attractive because: It imposes monetary discipline It limits speculation It limits uncertainty Of the lack of connection between the trade balance and exchange rates © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 1115 Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates There is no real agreement as to which system is better History shows that a fixed exchange rate regime modeled along the lines of the Bretton Woods system will not work A different kind of fixed exchange rate system might be more enduring and might foster the kind of stability that would facilitate more rapid growth in international trade and investment © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 1116 Exchange Rate Regimes in Practice Currently, there are several different exchange rate regimes in practice 21% of IMF members allow their currencies to float freely 23% of IMF members follow a managed float system 5% of IMF members have no legal tender of their own (excluding EU countries that use the euro) The remaining countries use less flexible systems such as pegged arrangements, or adjustable pegs © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 1117 Crisis Management by the IMF Question: What has been the role of the IMF in the international monetary systems since the collapse of Bretton Woods? • The IMF has redefined its mission, and now focuses on lending money to countries experiencing financial crises in exchange for enacting certain macroeconomic policies • Three types of financial crises requiring IMF involvement: A currency crisis A banking crisis A foreign debt crisis © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 1118 Evaluating the IMF’s Policy Prescriptions Question: How is the IMF doing? • In 2012, 52 countries were working IMF programs • All IMF loan packages come with conditions generally a combination of tight macroeconomic and monetary policies • These policy prescriptions have been criticized for: Inappropriatepolicies Moralhazard Lackofaccountability Aswithmanydebatesaboutinternationaleconomics, itisnotclearwhoisright â2014byMcGrawưHillEducation.Thisisproprietarymaterialsolelyforauthorizedinstructoruse.Notauthorizedforsaleordistributioninanymanner.Thisdocument may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 1119 Implications for Managers Question: What are the implications of the international monetary system for managers? The international monetary system affects international managers in three ways: Currency management Business strategy Corporategovernment relations © 2014 by McGrawHill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part. 1120 .. .Chapter 11 The International Monetary System © 2014 by McGraw Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document ... System in 1992 The 1997 Asian currency crisis The global financial crisis of 20082010 and the EU sovereign debt crisis during 20102 011 © 2014 by McGraw Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document ... â2014byMcGrawưHillEducation.Thisisproprietarymaterialsolelyforauthorizedinstructoruse.Notauthorizedforsaleordistributioninanymanner.Thisdocument maynotbecopied,scanned,duplicated,forwarded,distributed,orpostedonawebsite,inwholeorpart. 11 11 Floating Exchange Rate Regime At the Jamaica meeting, the IMF's Articles of Agreement were revised to reflect the new