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(BQ) Part 1 book Economics has contents: What economics is about; economic activities - producing and trading; supply and demand - theory; supply and demand - applications; macroeconomic measurements, part i - prices and unemployment; the federal reserve system; money and the economy; money and the economy,...and other contents:
s, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://dow To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com E c onomi c s R O G E R A A R N O L D CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY SAN MARCOS 9E Kor Ki To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com Economics, 9E Roger A Arnold Vice President of Editorial, Business: Jack W Calhoun Vice President/Editor-in-Chief: Alex von Rosenberg © 2010, 2008 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning ALL RIGHTS RESERVED No part of this work covered by the copyright hereon may be reproduced or used in any form or by any means—graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, Web distribution, information storage and retrieval systems, or in any other manner—except as may be permitted by the license terms herein Senior Acquisitions Editor: Michael W Worls Senior Developmental Editors: Jennifer E Thomas, Laura Bofinger Editorial Assistant: Lena Mortis Marketing Manager: John Carey Marketing Communications Manager: Sarah Greber Senior Content Project Manager: Kim Kusnerak Media Editor: Deepak Kumar Senior Manufacturing Buyer: Sandee Milewski Production Service: Macmillan Publishing Solutions Compositor: Macmillan Publishing Solutions For product information and technology assistance, contact us at Cengage Learning Customer & Sales Support, 1-800-354-9706 For permission to use material from this text or product, submit all requests online at www.cengage.com/permissions Further permissions questions can be emailed to permissionrequest@cengage.com ExamView® is a registered trademark of eInstruction Corp Windows is a registered trademark of the Microsoft Corporation used herein under license Macintosh and Power Macintosh are registered trademarks of Apple Computer, Inc used herein under license © 2008 Cengage Learning All Rights Reserved Senior Art Director: Michelle Kunkler Cover/Internal Designer: Ke Design/Mason, Ohio Cover Image: © Digital Vision Photography Rights Account Manager—Text: Mollika Basu Photography Manager: Deanna Ettinger Library of Congress Control Number: 2008938430 ISBN-13: 978-0-324-59542-0 ISBN-10: 0-324-59542-5 Instructor’s Edition ISBN 13: 978-0-324-78562-3 Instructor’s Edition ISBN 10: 0-324-78562-3 Photo Researcher: Susan Van Etten South-Western Cengage Learning 5191 Natorp Boulevard Mason, OH 45040 USA Cengage Learning products are represented in Canada by Nelson Education, Ltd For your course and learning solutions, visit www.cengage.com Purchase any of our products at your local college store or at our preferred online store www.ichapters.com Printed in the United States of America 12 11 10 09 08 To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com To Sheila, Daniel, and David To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com 348 PA R T Expectations and Growth Think ing lik e A n E c o n o m i s t Predictions Matter S uppose someone says that the assumptions of the New Keynesian theory (rational expectations and some price and wage rigidities) seem more reasonable than the assumptions of the Friedman natural rate theory and new classical theory Would it naturally follow that the New Keynesian theory is right and the others are wrong? According to economists, the answer is no We have all encountered theories with reasonable sounding assumptions that ended up being wrong (As just one example, at one time in the world’s history, it seemed reasonable to assume that the earth was flat.) Instead, economists judge a theory by how well it predicts and explains real-world events, not by how reasonable its assumptions might sound to someone LOOKING AT THINGS FROM THE SUPPLY SIDE: REAL BUSINESS CYCLE THEORISTS Throughout this chapter, changes in Real GDP have originated on the demand side of the economy When discussing the Friedman natural rate theory, the new classical theory, and the New Keynesian theory, we begin our analysis by shifting the AD curve to the right Then we explain what happens in the economy as a result Given the presentation in this chapter, someone might believe that all changes in Real GDP originate on the demand side of the economy In fact, some economists believe this to be true Other economists not One group of such economists—called real business cycle theorists—believe that changes on the supply side of the economy can lead to changes in Real GDP and unemployment Real business cycle theorists argue that a decrease in Real GDP (which refers to the recessionary or contractionary part of a business cycle) can be brought about by a major supply-side change that reduces the capacity of the economy to produce Moreover, they argue that what looks like a contraction in Real GDP originating on the demand side of the economy can be, in essence, the effect of what has happened on the supply side Exhibit helps illustrate the process We start with an adverse supply shock that reduces the capacity of the economy to produce This effect is represented by a shift inward in the economy’s production possibilities frontier or a leftward shift in the long-run aggregate supply curve from LRAS1 to LRAS2, which moves the economy from point A to point B As shown in Exhibit 9, a leftward shift in the long-run aggregate supply curve means that Natural Real GDP has fallen As a result of the leftward shift in the LRAS curve and the decline in Real GDP, firms reduce their demand for labor and scale back employment Due to the lower demand for labor (which puts downward pressure on money wages) and the higher price level, real wages fall As real wages fall, workers choose to work less, and unemployed persons choose to extend the length of their unemployment Due to less work and lower real wages, workers have less income Lower incomes soon lead workers to reduce consumption Because consumption has fallen, or because businesses have become pessimistic (prompted by the decline in the productive potential of the economy), or because of both reasons, businesses have less reason to invest As a result, firms borrow less from banks, the volume of outstanding loans falls, and therefore the money supply falls A decrease in To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com CHAPTER 15 Expectations Theory and the Economy 349 exhibit LRAS2 Real Business Cycle Theory LRAS1 Real business cycle: LRAS curve shifts before AD curve shifts Price Level B A C AD1 AD2 QN QN1 Real GDP the money supply causes the aggregate demand curve to shift leftward, from AD1 to AD2 in Exhibit 9, and the economy moves to point C Real business cycle theorists sometimes point out how easy it is to confuse a demand-induced decline in Real GDP with a supply-induced decline In our example, both the aggregate supply side and the aggregate demand side of the economy change, but the aggregate supply side changes first If the change in aggregate supply is overlooked, and only the changes in aggregate demand are observed (or specifically, a change in one of the variables that can change aggregate demand, such as the money supply), then the contraction in Real GDP will appear to be demand induced In terms of Exhibit 9, the leftward shift in the LRAS curve would be overlooked, but the leftward shift in the AD curve would be observed, giving the impression that the contraction is demand induced If real business cycle theorists are correct, the cause-effect analysis of a contraction in Real GDP would be turned upside down As just one example, changes in the money supply may be an effect of a contraction in Real GDP (which originates on the supply side of the economy), not its cause SELF-TEST The Wall Street Journal reports that the money supply has recently declined Is this consistent with a demand-induced business cycle, with a supply-induced business cycle, or with both? Explain your answer How are New Keynesians who believe people hold rational expectations different from new classical economists who believe people hold rational expectations? We start with a supply-side change capable of reducing the capacity of the economy to produce This is manifested by a leftward shift of the long-run aggregate supply curve from LRAS1 to LRAS2 and a fall in the Natural Real GDP level from QN1 to QN2 A reduction in the productive capacity of the economy filters to the demand side of the economy and, in our example, reduces consumption, investment, and the money supply The aggregate demand curve shifts leftward from AD1 to AD2 To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com “DOES NEW CLASSICAL THEORY CALL THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY INTO QUESTION?” Student: Instructor: When I started this course in macroeconomics, I was hoping to learn the unequivocal answers to some simple questions, such as what effect does fiscal policy have on the economy? What effect does monetary policy have on the economy? I don’t think I am learning this For example, it seems that fiscal and monetary policy can have different effects on Real GDP in the short depending on whether policy is unanticipated, anticipated incorrectly, or anticipated correctly Am I right about this? That’s right To provide some details, suppose the Fed plans to raise the money supply by $40 billion and the public incorrectly anticipates the Fed’s planning to raise the money supply by much more than $40 billion In the short run, the AD curve will shift to the right and the SRAS curve will to shift to the left, but the SRAS curve will be shifting left by more than the AD curve will be shifting to the right (This happened in Exhibit 7.) And the result will be a decline, not an increase, in Real GDP—at least in the short run Instructor: You’re right A given policy action (such as expansionary monetary policy) can have different effects on Real GDP (in the short run) depending on whether the policy is unancipated, anticipated correctly, and so on Student: So the monetary policy action can end up doing the very opposite of what it was intended to It was intended to raise Real GDP but it lowered it instead Student: What am I supposed to learn from this? Instructor: The obvious point, which you have identified, is that policy actions have different effects depending on the degree to which individuals anticipate the policy correctly The not so obvious point is that it might not be wise to use government policy actions to stabilize the economy Student: How you come to that point? What are the details? Instructor: Let’s say that the economy is currently in a recessionary gap and Real GDP is $11 trillion Policy makers want to raise the GDP level to Natural Real GDP at, say, $11.2 trillion To achieve this goal, either expansionary fiscal or monetary policy is implemented Are we guaranteed to raise Real GDP from $11 trillion to $11.2 trillion? Student: No Instructor: Why is that? Student: Well, according to new classical economists, it’s because individuals may incorrectly anticipate the policy in such as way as to reduce Real GDP instead of raise it 350 Instructor: That’s correct What the new classical economists are really pointing out is that we can’t always be sure of a discretionary policy action’s effect on Real GDP In turn, this should make economists less sure, or a little more humble, when it comes to advocating certain economic policy actions for government to implement Points to Remember According to new classical economists, economic policy actions may not always have the same effect on Real GDP in the short run Economic policy actions may accomplish the opposite of what they were intended to accomplish To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com CHAPTER 15 Expectations Theory and the Economy 351 Do Expectations Matter? W hat insights, if any, does the introduction of expectations into macroeconomics provide? oil supply affect the economy—almost everyone would expect that—but so can whether someone believes that the Fed will increase the money supply You know that changes in such things as taxes, government purchases, interest rates, the money supply, and other factors can change Real GDP, the price level, and the unemployment rate For example, starting from a state of long-run equilibrium, a rise in the money supply will raise Real GDP and lower the unemployment rate in the short run and raise the price level in the long run Or consider that an increase in productivity can shift the SRAS curve to the right and thus bring about a change in Real GDP and the price level In short, most of this text discusses how changes in real variables can affect the economy Recall our explanation of rational expectations and incorrectly anticipated policy The economy is in long-run equilibrium when the Fed undertakes an expansionary monetary policy move The Fed expects to increase the money supply by, say, $10 billion, and economic agents believe the increase in the money supply will be closer to $20 billion In other words, economic agents think that the money supply will rise by more than it will rise Does it matter that their thoughts are wrong? Rational expectations theory says that it does As shown in Exhibit 7, incorrect thoughts can lead to Real GDP declining With the introduction of expectations theory, we move to a different level of analysis Now we learn that what people think can also affect the economy In other words, not only can a change in the world’s The insight that expectations theory provides is that what people think can affect Real GDP, unemployment, and prices Who would have thought it? Chapter Summary THE PHILLIPS CURVE • • • A W Phillips plotted a curve to a set of data points that exhibited an inverse relationship between wage inflation and unemployment This curve came to be known as the Phillips curve From the Phillips curve relationship, economists concluded that neither the combination of low inflation and low unemployment nor the combination of high inflation and high unemployment was likely Economists Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow fit a Phillips curve to the U.S economy Instead of measuring wage inflation against unemployment rates (as Phillips did), they measured price inflation against unemployment rates They found an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment rates Based on the findings of Phillips and Samuelson and Solow, economists concluded the following: (1) Stagflation, or high inflation and high unemployment, is extremely unlikely (2) The Phillips curve presents policy makers with a menu of different combinations of inflation and unemployment rates • • Phillips curve The short-run Phillips curve exhibits the inflation-unemployment trade-off; the long-run Phillips curve does not Consideration of both short- and long-run Phillips curves opened macroeconomics to expectations theory The Friedman natural rate theory holds that in the short run, a decrease (increase) in inflation is linked to an increase (decrease) in unemployment, but in the long run, the economy returns to its natural rate of unemployment In other words, there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the short run but not in the long run The Friedman natural rate theory was expressed in terms of adaptive expectations Individuals formed their inflation expectations by considering past inflation rates Later, some economists expressed the theory in terms of rational expectations Rational expectations theory holds that individuals form their expected inflation rate by considering present and past inflation rates, as well as all other available and relevant information—in particular, the effects of present and future policy actions NEW CLASSICAL THEORY FRIEDMAN NATURAL RATE THEORY • Milton Friedman pointed out that there are two types of Phillips curves: a short-run Phillips curve and a long run • Implicit in the new classical theory are two assumptions: (1) Individuals form their expectations rationally (2) Wages and prices are completely flexible To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com 352 • • PA R T Expectations and Growth In the new classical theory, policy has different effects (1) when it is unanticipated and (2) when it is anticipated For example, if the public correctly anticipates an increase in aggregate demand, the short-run aggregate supply curve will likely shift leftward at the same time the aggregate demand curve shifts rightward If the public does not anticipate an increase in aggregate demand (but one occurs), then the short-run aggregate supply curve will not shift leftward at the same time the aggregate demand curve shifts rightward; it will shift leftward sometime later If policy is correctly anticipated, if expectations are formed rationally, and if wages and prices are completely flexible, then an increase or decrease in aggregate demand will change only the price level, not Real GDP or the unemployment rate The new classical theory casts doubt on the belief that the short-run Phillips curve is always downward sloping Under certain conditions, it may be vertical (as is the long-run Phillips curve) If policies are anticipated but not credible, and if rational expectations are a reasonable characterization of how individuals form their expectations, then certain policies may have unintended effects For example, if the public believes that aggregate demand will increase by more than it (actually) increases (because policy makers have not done in the past what they said they would do), then anticipated inflation will be higher than it would have been, the short-run aggregate supply curve will shift leftward by more than it would have otherwise, and the (short-run) outcomes of a policy that increases aggregate demand will be lower Real GDP and higher unemployment NEW KEYNESIAN THEORY • • Implicit in the New Keynesian theory are two assumptions: (1) Individuals form their expectations rationally (2) Wages and prices are not completely flexible (in the short run) If policy is anticipated, the economic effects predicted by the new classical theory and the New Keynesian theory are not the same (in the short run) Because the New Keynesian theory assumes that wages and prices are not completely flexible in the short run, given an anticipated change in aggregate demand, the short-run aggregate supply curve cannot immediately shift to its long-run equilibrium position The New Keynesian theory predicts a short-run trade off between inflation and unemployment (in the Phillips curve framework) REAL BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY • Real business cycle contractions (in Real GDP) originate on the supply side of the economy A contraction in Real GDP might follow this pattern: (1) An adverse supply shock reduces the economy’s ability to produce (2) The LRAS curve shifts leftward (3) As a result, Real GDP declines and the price level rises (4) The number of persons employed falls, as real wages, owing to a decrease in the demand for labor (which lowers money wages) and a higher price level (5) Incomes decline (6) Consumption and investment decline (7) The volume of outstanding loans declines (8) The money supply falls (9) The AD curve shifts leftward Key Terms and Concepts Phillips Curve Stagflation Friedman Natural Rate Theory Adaptive Expectations Rational Expectations Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition (PIP) Questions and Problems What does it mean to say that the Phillips curve presents policy makers with a menu of choices? According to Friedman, how we know when the economy is in long-run equilibrium? What is a major difference between adaptive and rational expectations? Give an example of each “The policy ineffectiveness proposition (connected with new classical theory) does not eliminate policy makers’ ability to reduce unemployment through aggregate demand– increasing policies because they can always increase aggregate demand by more than the public expects.” What might be the weak point in this argument? Why is the new classical theory associated with the word classical? Why has it been said that the classical theory failed where the new classical theory succeeds, because the former could not explain the business cycle (the ups and downs of the economy), but the latter can? Suppose a permanent downward-sloping Phillips curve existed and offered a menu of choices of different combinations of inflation and unemployment rates to policy makers How you think society would go about deciding which point on the Phillips curve it wanted to occupy? Assume a current short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment and a change in technology that permits the wider dispersion of economic policy news How would the change affect the trade-off? Explain your answer New Keynesian theory holds that wages are not completely flexible because of such things as long-term labor contracts New classical economists often respond that experience teaches labor leaders to develop and bargain for contracts that allow for wage adjustments Do you think the new classical economists have a good point? Why or why not? To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com CHAPTER 15 What evidence can you point to that suggests individuals form their expectations adaptively? What evidence can you point to that suggests individuals form their expectations rationally? 10 Explain both the short-run and long-run movements of the Friedman natural rate theory, assuming expectations are formed adaptively 11 Explain both the short-run and long-run movements of the new classical theory, assuming expectations are formed rationally and policy is unanticipated Expectations Theory and the Economy 353 12 “Even if some people not form their expectations rationally, the new classical theory is not necessarily of no value.” Discuss 13 In the real business cycle theory, why can’t the change in the money supply prompted by a series of events catalyzed by an adverse supply shock be considered the cause of the business cycle? 14 The expected inflation rate is percent, and the actual inflation rate is percent According to Friedman, is the economy in long-run equilibrium? Explain your answer Working with Numbers and Graphs Illustrate graphically what would happen in the short run and in the long run if individuals hold rational expectations, prices and wages are flexible, and individuals underestimate the decrease in aggregate demand In each of the following figures, the starting point is Which part illustrates each of the following? a Friedman natural rate theory (short run) b New classical theory (unanticipated policy, short run) c Real business cycle theory P LRAS SRAS2 P Q1 QN (a) LRAS2 P LRAS1 LRAS SRAS1 SRAS2 2 AD2 Q AD1 AD1 P LRAS SRAS1 SRAS1 d New classical theory (incorrectly anticipated policy, overestimating increase in aggregate demand, short run) e Policy ineffectiveness proposition (PIP) Illustrate graphically what would happen in the short run and in the long run if individuals hold adaptive expectations, if prices and wages are flexible, and if there is a decrease in aggregate demand AD2 QN (b) AD1 Q QN2 QN1 (c) Q AD2 AD1 Q N Q1 (d) Q To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com Chapter © COMSTOCK IMAGES/JUPITER IMAGES ECONOMIC GROWTH Introduction Rarely we think of how we came to have the standard of living we enjoy Most of us live in comfortable houses, drive nice cars, work on fast computers, enjoy exciting sporting events, attend lively jazz concerts, visit relaxing vacation spots, go to the movies and restaurants, and have many other things to be grateful for To a large degree, our lives are so enriched because we were born to parents who live in a country that in the last 60 years has experienced a relatively high rate of economic growth How might your life be different if the U.S economy had had a lower growth rate over that period? To answer this question, you need to know the causes and effects of economic growth A FEW BASICS ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH Absolute Real Economic Growth An increase in Real GDP from one period to the next Per Capita Real Economic Growth An increase from one period to the next in per capita Real GDP, which is Real GDP divided by population The term economic growth refers either to absolute real economic growth or to per capita real economic growth Absolute real economic growth is an increase in Real GDP from one period to the next Exhibit shows absolute real economic growth (or the percentage change in Real GDP) for the United States for the period 1993–2006 Per capita real economic growth is an increase from one period to the next in per capita Real GDP, which is Real GDP divided by population Real GDP Per capita Real GDP ϭ Population macrotheme D In Chapter 5, we said that one of the two variables that macroeconomists are concerned with learning about is Real GDP, Q Economic growth, the topic of this chapter, deals with factors that cause an increase in Q 354 To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com CHAPTER 16 Economic Growth exhibit Absolute Real Economic Growth Rates for the United States, 1995–2006 This exhibit shows the absolute real economic growth rates (or percentage change in Real GDP) in the United States for the period 1995–2006 Absolute Real Economic Growth (or percentage change in Real GDP) Source: Economic Report of the President, 2007 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.5 1.6 0.8 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 –1 Do Economic Growth Rates Matter? Suppose the absolute real economic growth rate is percent in one country and percent in another country The difference in these growth rates may not seem very significant But if they are sustained over a long period of time, the people who live in the two countries will see a real difference between their standards of living If a country’s economic growth rate is percent each year, its Real GDP will double in 18 years If a country has a percent annual growth rate, its Real GDP will double in 24 years In other words, a country with a percent growth rate can double its Real GDP in fewer years than a country with a percent growth rate (To calculate the time required for any variable to double, simply divide its percentage growth rate into 72 This is called the rule of 72.) To look at economic growth rates in another way, suppose two countries have the same population Real GDP is $300 billion in country A and $100 billion in country B Country A is therefore times richer than country B Now suppose the annual economic growth rate is percent in country A and percent in country B In just 15 years, country B will be the richer country As a real-world example of how a difference in growth rates matters, in 1960 Bolivia and Malaysia had approximately the same per capita Real GDP Over the next 40 years, Malaysia grew at an average annual growth rate of percent, whereas Bolivia grew at an average annual growth rate of 0.5 percent The result in 2000 was that per capita Real GDP in Malaysia was 3.5 times higher than it was in Bolivia Growth Rates in Selected Countries Suppose in a given year, country A has an economic growth rate of percent, and country B has an economic growth rate of percent Is the material standard of living in country A necessarily higher than in country B? Not at all A snapshot (in time) of the growth rate in two countries doesn’t tell us anything about growth rates in previous years, nor does it speak to per capita Real GDP For example, did country A have the same percent growth rate last year and the year before? Does country A have a higher per capita Real GDP? 2004 2005 2006 355 To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com 356 PA R T Expectations and Growth Now suppose that the per capita Real GDP in country C is $30,000 and that the per capita Real GDP in country D is $2,000 Must the material standard of living in country C be higher than in country D? Probably so, but not necessarily We say “not necessarily” because we not know the income distribution in either country All a per capita Real GDP figure tells us is that if we were to divide a country’s entire Real GDP equally among all the people in the country, each person would have a certain dollar amount of Real GDP at his or her disposal In reality, percent of the population may have, say, 70 percent of the country’s Real GDP as income, whereas the remaining 98 percent of the population shares only 30 percent of Real GDP as income Given such qualifications, here are the economic growth rates and per capita Real GDP for selected countries in 2007.1 Country Percentage Growth Rate in Real GDP (%) Per Capita Real GDP Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark France Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Sweden United States 3.9 3.4 2.7 2.7 1.8 1.9 2.5 1.5 2.1 3.5 2.6 2.2 $34,154 36,065 33,607 36,243 35,213 30,724 32,228 28,434 31,696 36,783 34,457 43,267 Finding Economics In a Restaurant I t is p.m and Xavier drives his new $45,000 car to a restaurant, where he and a friend have dinner The bill comes to $86.75 After dinner, Xavier and his friend attend a play and later return to Xavier’s 3,500-square-foot house They sit out by the swimming pool and talk about everything and nothing Where is the economics? Is economic growth relevant to the evening? Economic growth is the silent actor of the evening Xavier and his friend can enjoy such a comfortable and satisfying evening because they live in a country that has experienced economic growth over the years Or look at it this way Although there are people like Xavier and his friend all over the world, not all of them can have the same evening Individuals living in countries that have experienced much less economic growth over the years are not as likely to experience the same kind of evening Here are a few startling facts: About 24,000 people die every day from hunger or hunger-related causes, and three-fourths of the deaths are of children under the age of The vast majority of people who die of hunger live in countries of the world that have experienced relatively little economic growth The sources for the data include the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the CIA World Factbook, 2008 To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com CHAPTER 16 Economic Growth 357 C o mmo n M i s c o n c e p t i o n s About a Rising Standard of Living M ost of us have lived in a country and during a time when standards of living have increased However, standards of living have not always increased, nor must they always increase If you had lived during the 1700s in Western Europe, your standard of living would not have been much different from what it would have been had you lived in the year 1000 Most people living at these times did not live long enough to notice any economic growth The world they were born into, and died in, was much the same decade after decade Their parents, grandparents, and great grandparents lived much the same lives A rising standard of living within a generation or two is a relatively new phenomenon Th inking like A n E c o n o m i s t The Importance of Economic Growth E conomic growth has been a major topic of discussion for economists for over two centuries Adam Smith, the founder of modern economics, wrote a book on the subject that was published in 1776: An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations In the book, Smith set out to answer the question of why some countries are rich and others are poor Today, we’d ask why is the per capita Real GDP high in some countries and low in others? For economists, getting the right answer to this question is of major importance to millions—if not billions—of people Two Types of Economic Growth Economic growth can be shown in two of the frameworks of analysis used so far in this book: the production possibilities frontier (PPF) framework and the AD-AS framework Within these two frameworks, we consider two types of economic growth: (1) economic growth that occurs from an inefficient level of production and (2) economic growth that occurs from an efficient level of production ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM AN INEFFICIENT LEVEL OF PRODUCTION A production possibilities frontier is shown in Exhibit 2(a) If the economy is currently operating at point A, below the PPF, obviously it is not operating at its Natural Real GDP Economic Growth from an Inefficient Level of Production LRAS Price Level Capital Goods SRAS1 B A B' A' AD2 PPF1 Consumer Goods (a) AD1 Q1 QN (b) exhibit Real GDP The economy is at point A in (a) and at point AЈ in (b) Currently, the economy is at an inefficient point, or below Natural Real GDP Economic growth is evidenced as a movement from point A to B in (a), and as a movement from AЈ to BЈ in (b) To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com HOW ECONOMIZING ON TIME CAN PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH I f a society obtains more resources, its production possibilities frontier (PPF) will shift to the right, and economic growth is therefore possible One way to obtain more resources is by means of a technological change or innovation that makes it possible to use fewer resources to produce a particular good To illustrate, suppose 100 units of a given resource are available Currently, 10 units of the resource are needed to produce 20 units of good X, and 90 units of the resource are used to produce 900 units of other goods Now suppose a technological change or innovation makes it possible to produce 20 units of good X with only units of the resource This means 95 units of the resource can be used to produce other goods With more resources going to produce other goods, more other goods can be produced Perhaps with 95 units of the resource going to produce other goods, 950 units of other goods can be produced In short, a technological advance or innovation that saves resources in the production of one good makes growth possible With this in mind, consider the resource of time Usually, when people think of resources, they think of labor, capital, and natural resources But time is a resource too because it takes time (in much the same way that it takes labor or capital) to produce goods Any technological advance that economizes on time frees up time that can be used to produce other goods To illustrate, consider a simple everyday example With today’s computers, people can make calculations, write books, key reports, design buildings, and many other things in less time than in the past Thus, more time is available to other things Having more time to produce other things promotes economic growth Another example is money Before money was available, people made barter trades In a barter economy, finding people to trade with takes time, and money saves this time Because everyone accepts money, it is easier for people to acquire the goods and services they want Money makes trading easier and quicker In other words, it saves time Money is a kind of technology that saves time and promotes economic growth level If it were, the economy would be located on the PPF instead of below it Instead, the economy is at an inefficient point or at an inefficient level of production Point A in Exhibit 2(a) corresponds to point AЈ in Exhibit 2(b) At point AЈ, the economy is in a recessionary gap, operating below Natural Real GDP Suppose that, through expansionary monetary or fiscal policy, the aggregate demand curve shifts rightward from AD1 to AD2 The economy is pulled out of its recessionary gap and is now producing Natural Real GDP at point BЈ in Exhibit 2(b) What does the situation look like now in Exhibit 2(a)? Obviously, if the economy is producing at its Natural Real GDP level, it is operating at full employment or at the natural unemployment rate The economy has moved from point A (below the PPF) to point B (on the PPF) The economy has moved from operating at an inefficient level of production to operating at an efficient level ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM AN EFFICIENT LEVEL OF PRODUCTION 358 How can the economy grow if it is on the PPF in Exhibit 2(a)—exhibiting efficiency—or producing at the Natural Real GDP level in Exhibit 2(b)? The PPF must shift to the right (or outward) in part (a), or the LRAS curve must shift to the right in (b) In other words, if the economy is at point B in Exhibit 3(a), it can grow if the PPF shifts rightward from PPF1 to PPF2 Similarly, if the economy is at point BЈ in Exhibit 3(b), Real GDP can be raised beyond QN1 on a permanent basis only if the LRAS curve shifts to the right from LRAS1 to LRAS2 Although we have described economic growth from both an inefficient and efficient level of production, usually when economists speak of economic growth, they are speaking about it from an efficient level of production That is, they are talking about a shift rightward in the PPF or in the LRAS curve To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com CHAPTER 16 Economic Growth 359 exhibit Price Level Capital Goods LRAS1 C B The economy is at point B in (a) and at point BЈ in (b) Economic growth can only occur in (a) if the PPF shifts rightward from PPF1 to PPF2 It can only occur in (b) if the LRAS curve shifts from LRAS1 to LRAS2 C''' P3 P1 Economic Growth from an Efficient Level of Production LRAS2 C'' B' AD3 C' P2 AD2 PPF1 PPF2 Consumer Goods AD1 QN1 (a) QN2 Real GDP (b) Economic Growth and the Price Level Economic growth can occur with a falling price level, a rising price level, or a stable price level To see this, look again at Exhibit 3(b) The LRAS curve shifts from LRAS1 to LRAS2 Three possible aggregate demand curves may be consistent with this new LRAS curve: AD1, AD2, or AD3 • If AD1 is the relevant AD curve, economic growth occurs with a declining price level Before the LRAS curve shifts to the right, the price level is P1; after the shift, it is lower, at P2 • If AD2 is the relevant AD curve, economic growth occurs with a stable price level Before the LRAS curve shifts to the right, the price level is P1; after the shift, it is the same, at P1 • If AD3 is the relevant AD curve, economic growth occurs with a rising price level Before the LRAS curve shifts to the right, the price level is P1; after the shift, it is higher, at P3 In recent decades, the U.S economy has witnessed economic growth with a rising price level In other words, the AD curve has been shifting to the right at a faster rate than the LRAS curve has been shifting to the right WHAT CAUSES ECONOMIC GROWTH? This section looks at some of the determinants of economic growth—that is, the factors that can shift the PPF or the LRAS curve to the right These factors include natural resources, labor, capital, technological advances, free trade as technology, the property rights structure, and economic freedom We then discuss some of the policies that promote economic growth Natural Resources People often think that countries with a plentiful supply of natural resources experience economic growth, whereas countries short of natural resources not In fact, some countries with an abundant supply of natural resources have experienced rapid growth in the To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com 360 PA R T Expectations and Growth past (e.g., the United States), and others have experienced no growth or only slow growth (e.g., Ghana, in certain years) Also, some countries that are short of natural resources, such as Singapore, have grown very fast Natural resources don’t seem to be either a sufficient or a necessary factor for growth: Countries rich in natural resources are not guaranteed economic growth, and countries poor in natural resources may grow economically Nevertheless, a nation rich in natural resources is likely to experience growth, ceteris paribus For example, if a place such as Hong Kong, which has few natural resources, had been blessed with much fertile soil, instead of only a little, and many raw materials, instead of almost none, it might have experienced more economic growth than it has Labor Increased labor makes it possible to produce more output (more Real GDP) However, whether the average productivity of labor rises, falls, or stays constant (as additional workers are added to the production process) depends on how productive the additional workers are relative to existing ones (Average labor productivity is total output divided by total labor hours For example, if $6 trillion of output is produced in 200 billion labor hours, then average labor productivity is $30 per hour.) If the additional workers are less productive, labor productivity will decline If they are more productive, labor productivity will rise And if they are equally as productive, labor productivity will stay the same Either an increase in the labor force or an increase in labor productivity leads to increases in Real GDP, but only an increase in labor productivity tends to lead to an increase in per capita Real GDP How then we achieve an increase in labor productivity? One way is through increased education, training, and experience, which are increases in what economists call human capital Another way is through (physical) capital investment Combining workers with more capital goods tends to increase their productivity For example, a farmer with a tractor is more productive than a farmer without one Capital As just mentioned, capital investment can lead to increases in labor productivity and therefore to increases not only in Real GDP, but also in per capita Real GDP But capital goods not fall from the sky Getting more of one thing often means forfeiting something else To produce more capital goods that are not directly consumable, present consumption must be reduced For example, Robinson Crusoe, alone on an island and fishing with a spear, must give up some of the time he would have spent catching fish to weave a net (a physical capital good), with which he hopes to catch more fish If Crusoe gives up some of his present consumption—if he chooses not to consume now—he is, in fact, saving There is a link between nonconsumption, or saving, and capital formation As the saving rate increases, capital formation increases and so does economic growth Exhibit shows that for the period 1970–1990, countries with higher investment rates largely tended to have higher per capita Real GDP growth rates For example, investment was a higher percentage of GDP in Austria, Norway, and Japan than it was in the United States And these countries experienced a higher per capita Real GDP growth rate than the United States did Technological Advances Technological advances make it possible to obtain more output from the same amount of resources Compare the amount of work done by a business that uses computers with the amount accomplished by a business without them Technological advances may be the result of new capital goods or of new ways of producing goods The use of computers is an example of a technological advance that is the To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com CHAPTER 16 Economic Growth 361 Average Annual Per Capita Real GDP Growth Rate, 1970–1990 (percent) exhibit Investment and Per Capita Real Economic Growth for Selected Countries, 1970–1990 Ireland Iceland Poland Italy Turkey Austria Canada Spain Belgium Germany Luxembourg U.K Greece France Denmark Netherlands Australia U.S Sweden Japan Norway Generally, but not always, countries in which investment is a larger percentage of GDP have higher per capita Real GDP growth rates Source: Council of Economic Advisors, Economic Report of the President, 1997 (Washington, DC: U.S Government Printing Office, 1997) Switzerland 16 Portugal New Zealand 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Investment as Percent of GDP (average, 1970–1990) result of a new capital good New and improved management techniques are an example of a new way of producing goods Technological advances usually come as the result of companies, and of a country, investing in research and development (R&D) Research and development, in general terms, encompasses such things as scientists working in a lab to develop a new product and managers figuring out, through experience, how to motivate workers to work to their potential Free Trade as Technology Suppose that someone in the United States has invented a machine that can turn wheat into cars2 and that the only problem with the machine is that it works only in Japan So people in the United States grow wheat and ship it to Japan There, the machine turns the wheat into cars The cars are then loaded on ships and brought to the United States Many economists say there is really no difference between a machine that can turn wheat into cars and free trade between countries Enabled by free trade, people in the United States grow wheat and ship it to Japan; after a while the ships come back loaded with cars This is exactly what happens with our make-believe machine There is really no discernible difference between a machine turning wheat into cars and trading wheat for cars In both cases, wheat is given up to get cars If the machine is a technological advancement, then so is free trade, as many economists point out In that technological advancements can promote economic growth, so can free trade Property Rights Structure Some economists have argued that per capita real economic growth first appeared in areas with a system of institutions and property rights that encouraged individuals to direct The essence of this example comes from David Friedman, Hidden Order (New York: HarperCollins, 1996), p 70 To download more slides, ebooks, solution manual, and test bank, visit http://downloadslide.blogspot.com ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND GROWTH RATES T here is some evidence that economic freedom matters to a country’s economic growth rate Consider when there were two Germanies: East Germany and West Germany The two Germanies were much the same in terms of culture, people, climate, language, and so on, but West Germans enjoyed more economic freedom than East Germans Did this major difference matter to economic growth? Most © AP PHOTO/JOCKEL FINCK economists answer yes Between 1950 and 1991, the average annual growth rate in East Germany was 1.3 percent; in West Germany it was 4.4 percent The same sort of difference holds between North Korea and South Korea There is much more economic freedom in South Korea than in North Korea During the second half of the twentieth century, the average annual growth rate in South Korea was more than three times higher than the average annual growth rate in North Korea The evidence from the two Koreas and two Germanies tells us that economic freedom does matter to economic growth, especially when other factors (that matter to growth) are much the same between the countries But when other factors aren’t the same, problems arise Suppose country A has less economic freedom than country B Country A will not necessarily grow less than country B over the next five or ten years The economic growth rate in a country could depend on the economic base from which the growth emanates To illustrate, suppose country A has a Real GDP of $10 billion, and country B has a Real GDP of $100 billion Suppose now that Real GDP grows by $2 billion in both countries The economic growth rate in country A (the country with less economic freedom) is 20 percent, but the economic growth rate in country B (the country with more economic freedom) is only percent This does not mean that economic freedom is a hindrance to economic growth Not at all It may simply look that way because something different between the two countries—in this case, the economic base—isn’t being considered their energies to effective economic projects Property rights consist of the range of laws, rules, and regulations that define rights for the use and transfer of resources Consider two property rights structures In one structure, people are allowed to keep the full monetary rewards of their labor In the other, people are allowed to keep only half Many economists would predict that the first property rights structure would stimulate more economic activity than the second, ceteris paribus Individuals will invest more, take more risks, and work harder when the property rights structure allows them to keep more of the monetary rewards of their investing, risk taking, and labor Economic Freedom 362 Some economists believe that economic freedom leads to economic growth Countries whose people enjoy a large degree of economic freedom develop and grow more quickly than countries whose people have little economic freedom The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal have joined to produce an “index of economic freedom.” This index is based on 50 independent variables divided into 10 broad categories of economic freedom, such as trade policy, monetary policy, property rights structure, regulation, fiscal burden of government, and so on For example, a country with few tariffs and quotas (trade policy variables) is considered to have more economic freedom than a country with many tariffs and quotas ... 2008938430 ISBN -1 3 : 97 8-0 -3 2 4-5 954 2-0 ISBN -1 0 : 0-3 2 4-5 954 2-5 Instructor’s Edition ISBN 13 : 97 8-0 -3 2 4-7 856 2-3 Instructor’s Edition ISBN 10 : 0-3 2 4-7 856 2-3 Photo Researcher: Susan Van Etten South-Western... 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