Essentials of Investments: Chapter 17 - Futures Markets and Risk Management presents Futures and Forwards, Basics of Futures Contracts, Existing Contracts, Trading Mechanics, Margin and Marking to Market, Margin and Trading Arrangements.
CHAPTER 17 Futures Markets and Risk Management INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc All rights reserved 19-2 Futures and Forwards • Forward – a deferred-delivery sale of an asset with the sales price agreed on now • Futures - similar to forward but feature formalized and standardized contracts • Key difference in futures – Standardized contracts create liquidity – Marked to market – Exchange mitigates credit risk INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-3 Basics of Futures Contracts • A futures contract is the obligation to make or take delivery of the underlying asset at a predetermined price • Futures price – the price for the underlying asset is determined today, but settlement is on a future date • The futures contract specifies the quantity and quality of the underlying asset and how it will be delivered INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-4 Basics of Futures Contracts • Long – a commitment to purchase the commodity on the delivery date • Short – a commitment to sell the commodity on the delivery date • Futures are traded on margin • At the time the contract is entered into, no money changes hands INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-5 Basics of Futures Contracts • Profit to long = Spot price at maturity - Original futures price • Profit to short = Original futures price - Spot price at maturity • The futures contract is a zero-sum game, which means gains and losses net out to zero INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-6 Figure 19.2 Profits to Buyers and Sellers of Futures and Option Contracts INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-7 Figure 19.2 Conclusions • Profit is zero when the ultimate spot price, PT equals the initial futures price, F0 • Unlike a call option, the payoff to the long position can be negative because the futures trader cannot walk away from the contract if it is not profitable INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-8 Existing Contracts • Futures contracts are traded on a wide variety of assets in four main categories: Agricultural commodities Metals and minerals Foreign currencies Financial futures INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-9 Trading Mechanics • Electronic trading has mostly displaced floor trading • CBOT and CME merged in 2007 to form CME Group • The exchange acts as a clearing house and counterparty to both sides of the trade • The net position of the clearing house is zero INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-10 Trading Mechanics • Open interest is the number of contracts outstanding • If you are currently long, you simply instruct your broker to enter the short side of a contract to close out your position • Most futures contracts are closed out by reversing trades • Only 1-3% of contracts result in actual delivery of the underlying commodity INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-11 Figure 19.3 Trading without a Clearinghouse; Trading with a Clearinghouse INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-12 Margin and Marking to Market • Marking to Market - each day the profits or losses from the new futures price are paid over or subtracted from the account • Convergence of Price - as maturity approaches the spot and futures price converge INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-13 Margin and Trading Arrangements • Initial Margin - funds or interest-earning securities deposited to provide capital to absorb losses • Maintenance margin - an established value below which a trader’s margin may not fall • Margin call - when the maintenance margin is reached, broker will ask for additional margin funds INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-14 Trading Strategies Speculators • seek to profit from price movement – short - believe price will fall – long - believe price will rise Hedgers • seek protection from price movement – long hedge - protecting against a rise in purchase price – short hedge - protecting against a fall in selling price INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-15 Basis and Basis Risk • Basis - the difference between the futures price and the spot price, FT – PT • The convergence property says FT – PT= at maturity INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-16 Basis and Basis Risk • Before maturity, FT may differ substantially from the current spot price • Basis Risk - variability in the basis means that gains and losses on the contract and the asset may not perfectly offset if liquidated before maturity INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-17 Futures Pricing Spot-futures parity theorem - two ways to acquire an asset for some date in the future: Purchase it now and store it Take a long position in futures •These two strategies must have the same market determined costs INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-18 Spot-Futures Parity Theorem • With a perfect hedge, the futures payoff is certain there is no risk • A perfect hedge should earn the riskless rate of return • This relationship can be used to develop the futures pricing relationship INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-19 Hedge Example: Section 19.4 • Investor holds $1000 in a mutual fund indexed to the S&P 500 • Assume dividends of $20 will be paid on the index fund at the end of the year • A futures contract with delivery in one year is available for $1,010 • The investor hedges by selling or shorting one contract INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-20 Hedge Example Outcomes Value of ST 990 1,010 1,030 Payoff on Short (1,010 - ST) -20 Dividend Income Total 20 20 1,030 20 1,030 20 1,030 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-21 Rate of Return for the Hedge ( F0 D) S S0 (1,010 20) 1,000 3% 1,000 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-22 The Spot-Futures Parity Theorem ( F0 D ) S rf S0 Rearranging terms F0 S (1 rf ) D S (1 rf d ) dD S0 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-23 Arbitrage Possibilities • If spot-futures parity is not observed, then arbitrage is possible • If the futures price is too high, short the futures and acquire the stock by borrowing the money at the risk free rate • If the futures price is too low, go long futures, short the stock and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-24 Spread Pricing: Parity for Spreads T F (T1 ) S0 (1 rf d ) T F (T2 ) S0 (1 rf d ) F (T2 ) F (T1 )(1 rf d ) (T T 1) INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-25 Spreads • If the risk-free rate is greater than the dividend yield (rf > d), then the futures price will be higher on longer maturity contracts • If rf < d, longer maturity futures prices will be lower • For futures contracts on commodities that pay no dividend, d=0, F must increase as time to maturity increases INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-26 Figure 19.6 Gold Futures Prices INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-27 Futures Prices vs Expected Spot Prices • • • • Expectations Normal Backwardation Contango Modern Portfolio Theory INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-28 Figure 19.7 Futures Price Over Time, Special Case INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS ...1 9-2 Futures and Forwards • Forward – a deferred-delivery sale of an asset with the sales price agreed on now • Futures - similar to forward but feature formalized and standardized contracts... price at maturity - Original futures price • Profit to short = Original futures price - Spot price at maturity • The futures contract is a zero-sum game, which means gains and losses net out... | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1 9-6 Figure 19.2 Profits to Buyers and Sellers of Futures and Option Contracts INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1 9-7 Figure 19.2 Conclusions • Profit is zero when the ultimate