OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi Global Energy OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi Global Energy Issues, Potentials, and Policy Implications Edited by Paul Ekins, Michael Bradshaw, and Jim Watson OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP, United Kingdom Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries © the various contributors 2015 The moral rights of the authors have been asserted First edition published in 2015 Impression: All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Control Number: 2015933880 ISBN 978–0–19–871952–6 (hbk.) 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Printed and bound by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and for information only Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi n FOREWORD AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This book is one of the major outputs of the last five years’ work of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) The great majority of the chapters are the result of UKERC projects or special collaborations between UKERC researchers The book seeks to respond to UKERC’s main remit of adopting, exploring, and explaining a ‘whole system approach’ to the complex issues raised by the supply and demand of energy globally in the twenty-first century Our first acknowledgement, therefore, must be to Research Councils UK (RCUK), which funds the interdisciplinary research of UKERC through its Energy Programme, and thereby enabled this book to be produced Our second acknowledgement is to our authors and peer reviewers Each chapter was peer reviewed by two other authors expert in the field, thereby contributing significantly to the quality of this work Finally we would like to acknowledge the support staff, Katherine Welch, Alison Parker, Aimee Walker, and Kiran Dhillon at University College London’s Institute for Sustainable Resources, and the editorial team at Oxford University Press (OUP), for ensuring that the book came in more or less on time and was produced with OUP’s usual efficiency and excellence This is not the first book on global energy issues in this century, but it is shorter and we hope, therefore, more accessible than some other notable publications, such as the Global Energy Assessment of 2012 or the annual World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency While it inevitably goes into less detail than these much longer publications, its coverage of the issues is comparable, and it includes one or two new topics, such as the material use of energy systems and the impacts of energy technologies on ecosystems and ecosystem services We very much hope that this book will help the present and next generation of teachers, students, policy makers, and citizens with an interest in energy issues to develop a clearer understanding of the ‘whole system approach’ to these issues, so that they may be better able to contribute to the resolution of the urgent, complex and interacting energy system problems which now face humanity Paul Ekins, Deputy Director, UKERC, and University College London Michael Bradshaw, Warwick Business School Jim Watson, Research Director, UKERC OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi n CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS ix xv xvii Introduction PART I GLOBAL ENERGY: CONTEXT AND IMPLICATIONS The global energy context Jim Skea Energy systems and innovation Jim Watson, Xinxin Wang, and Florian Kern 34 Deepening globalization: economies, trade, and energy systems Gavin Bridge and Michael Bradshaw 52 The global climate change regime Joanna Depledge 73 The implications of indirect emissions for climate and energy policy Katy Roelich, John Barrett, and Anne Owen 92 Energy production and ecosystem services Robert Holland, Kate Scott, Tina Blaber-Wegg, Nicola Beaumont, Eleni Papathanasopoulou, and Pete Smith 112 Technical, economic, social, and cultural perspectives on energy demand Charlie Wilson, Kathryn B Janda, Franỗoise Bartiaux, and Mithra Moezzi 125 Energy access and development in the twenty-first century Xavier Lemaire 148 PART II GLOBAL ENERGY: OPTIONS AND CHOICES Improving efficiency in buildings: conventional and alternative approaches Kathryn B Janda, Charlie Wilson, Mithra Moezzi, and Franỗoise Bartiaux 10 Challenges and options for sustainable travel: mobility, motorization, and vehicle technologies Hannah Daly, Paul E Dodds, and Will McDowall 11 Shipping and aviation Antony Evans and Tristan Smith 161 163 189 209 OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi viii CONTENTS 12 Carbon capture and storage Jim Watson and Cameron Jones 229 13 Fossil fuels: reserves, cost curves, production, and consumption Michael Bradshaw, Antony Froggatt, Christophe McGlade, and Jamie Speirs 244 14 Unconventional fossil fuels and technological change Michael Bradshaw, Murtala Chindo, Joseph Dutton, and Kärg Kama 268 15 The geopolitical economy of a globalizing gas market Michael Bradshaw, Joseph Dutton, and Gavin Bridge 291 16 Nuclear power after Fukushima: prospects and implications Markku Lehtonen and Mari Martiskainen 306 17 Bioenergy resources Raphael Slade and Ausilio Bauen 331 18 Solar energy: an untapped growing potential? Chiara Candelise 354 19 Water: ocean energy and hydro Laura Finlay, Henry Jeffrey, Andy MacGillivray, and George Aggidis 377 20 Global wind power developments and prospects Will McDowall and Andrew ZP Smith 404 21 Network infrastructure and energy storage for low-carbon energy systems Paul E Dodds and Birgit Fais 426 22 Metals for the low-carbon energy system Jamie Speirs and Katy Roelich 452 23 Electricity markets and their regulatory systems for a sustainable future Catherine Mitchell 476 PART III GLOBAL ENERGY FUTURES 497 24 Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction Christophe McGlade, Olivier Dessens, Gabrial Anandarajah, and Paul Ekins 499 25 Energy and ecosystem service impacts Eleni Papathanasopoulou, Robert Holland, Trudie Dockerty, Kate Scott, Tina Blaber-Wegg, Nicola Beaumont, Gail Taylor, Gilla Sünnenberg, Andrew Lovett, Pete Smith, and Melanie Austen 525 26 Policies and conclusions Paul Ekins 538 AUTHOR INDEX GENERAL INDEX 569 577 OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi n LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Global primary energy demand by region 12 1.2 Evolution of energy use and GDP per capita 1971–2011 13 1.3 Global primary energy demand by fuel 15 1.4 Energy demand by sector in OECD and non-OECD countries 16 1.5 Proportion of final energy demand met by electricity 17 1.6 Markets for oil products 18 1.7 Supply costs of liquid fuels 20 1.8 Projected US natural gas production 21 1.9 Regional imports of crude oil 22 1.10 Regional imports of natural gas 23 1.11 Regional exports of coal 23 1.12 Oil and coal prices 1971–2012 24 1.13 Regional gas prices 1971–2012 25 1.14 Global energy related CO2 emissions 26 1.15 Primary energy demand in different global energy scenarios/projections for 2040 29 2.1 Total government spending by IEA member countries (1974–2012) 40 2.2 Government R&D spending by the EU, USA, and Japan (1991–2010) 41 2.3 Government energy R&D spending in the ‘BRICS’ countries, Mexico, and the USA 42 2.4 Energy technology patent applications filed under the Patent Co-operation Treaty 43 2.5 Global new investment in clean energy by sector 2004–13 ($bn) 45 3.1 Labour productivity and energy use 54 3.2 International convergence in energy intensity 65 5.1 Consumption, production, and territorial greenhouse gas emissions for the UK 95 5.2 Uncertainty associated with UK consumption-based CO2 Emissions (as calculated using EE-MRIO analysis) 97 5.3 Future GHG emissions showing domestic (production minus exports) and indirect (those associated with the production of goods imported to the UK) emissions for the UK 99 5.4 Lifecycle GHG emissions of electricity generation technologies 100 5.5 Contribution of domestic (UK production minus exports) and indirect (those associated with the production of goods imported to the UK) emissions by sector for the UK 2010 102 Decomposition of net exports of indirect emissions for selected countries (2009) 104 5.6 ... 1.1 Global primary energy demand by region 12 1.2 Evolution of energy use and GDP per capita 1971–2011 13 1.3 Global primary energy demand by fuel 15 1.4 Energy demand by sector in OECD and non-OECD... Introduction PART I GLOBAL ENERGY: CONTEXT AND IMPLICATIONS The global energy context Jim Skea Energy systems and innovation Jim Watson, Xinxin Wang, and Florian Kern 34 Deepening globalization: economies,... FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi Global Energy OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 28/7/2015, SPi Global Energy Issues, Potentials, and Policy Implications Edited by