Incentivizing Peace Incentivizing Peace How International Organizations CanHelp Prevent CivilWars inMember Countries JAROSL AV TIR AND JOHANNE S KARRETH Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America © Oxford University Press 2018 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Tir, Jaroslav, 1972- author | Karreth, Johannes, author Title: Incentivizing peace : how international organizations can help prevent civil wars in member countries / Jaroslav Tir and Johannes Karreth Description: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2018] | Includes bibliographical references Identifiers: LCCN 2017026625 (print) | LCCN 2017052236 (ebook) | ISBN 9780190699543 (epub) | ISBN 9780190699536 (updf) | ISBN 9780190699512 (hardcover) | ISBN 9780190699529 (pbk.) Subjects: LCSH: International agencies–Membership | Peace-building–International cooperation | Conflict management–International cooperation | Civil war–Prevention Classification: LCC JZ4850 (ebook) | LCC JZ4850.T57 2018 (print) | DDC 303.6/4–dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017026625 CONTENTS List of Figures List of Tables Acknowledgments Introduction 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 THE PROBLEMS OF CIVIL WAR AND CIVIL WAR MANAGEMENT A NOVEL PERSPECTIVE ON CIVIL WAR MANAGEMENT CONTRIBUTIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OUTLINE OF THE BOOK Managing Civil Wars from the Perspective of Their Development 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 INTRODUCTION CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, AND MANAGEMENT OF CIVIL WARS CIVIL WAR DEVELOPMENT AND ESCALATION WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO PREVENT LOW-LEVEL ARMED CONFLICT FROM ESCALATING TO CIVIL WAR? THE (IN)ADEQUACY OF COMMON THIRD-PARTY CONFLICT MANAGING POLICIES IN PREVENTING CONFLICT ESCALATION OUR THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR ESCALATION PREVENTION The Interplay Between Civil War Development and Highly Structured Intergovernmental Organizations 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 THE DEFINITION, EVOLUTION, AND DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHLY STRUCTURED IGOS THE IMPORTANCE OF IGOS’ INDEPENDENCE FROM AND LEVERAGE OVER MEMBER STATES THE ROLE OF HIGHLY STRUCTURED IGOS IN PREVENTING CIVIL WAR HOW HIGHLY STRUCTURED IGOS EXERCISE INFLUENCE THE PRIMARY HYPOTHESIS The Empirical Record of Highly Structured Intergovernmental Organizations and Armed Conflict Escalation 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 A SYSTEMATIC EXAMINATION OF CONFLICT ESCALATION THE UNIVERSE OF CASES ARMED CONFLICT ESCALATION MEASURING THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHLY STRUCTURED IGOS OTHER POTENTIAL DETERMINANTS OF ESCALATION HIGHLY STRUCTURED IGOS REDUCE THE RISK OF ARMED CONFLICT ESCALATION CONCLUSION The Logic of Institutional Influence: Conceptual and Methodological Implications 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 COSTS AND BENEFITS PEACEFUL SETTLEMENTS MEDIATION AND INTERVENTION POTENTIAL MEMBERSHIP SCREENING BY HIGHLY STRUCTURED IGOS OTHER POTENTIAL INFLUENCES ON CONFLICT ESCALATION 5.6 5.7 5.8 THE ADDED VALUE OF HIGHLY STRUCTURED IGOS INEXPLAINING ESCALATION CONCLUSION APPENDIX Case Evidence: Conflict Trajectories in Indonesia, Ivory Coast, and Syria 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 CASE SELECTION INDONESIA AND EAST TIMOR IVORY COAST SYRIA CONCLUSION Conclusion 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 BRIEF SUMMARY OF FINDINGS LESSON 1: THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO CIVILWAR PREVENTION LESSON 2: ECONOMIC INFLUENCE IS KEY TO CIVILWAR PREVENTION LESSON 3: COORDINATION INCREASES THE IMPACT LESSON 4: FURTHER INVESTIGATE THE IMPACT OF HIGHLY STRUCTURED IGOS ON REBELS LESSON 5: PEACE PAYS OFF (FOR REBELS, TOO) Data Appendix List of Software Packages Used Notes Bibliography Index LIST OF FIGURES 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15 Count of highly structured IGOs in the international system over time Comparison of the membership size of all highly structured IGOs Membership size of highly structured IGOs over time States’ participation in highly structured IGOs over time The geography of highly structured IGOs Map of all low-level armed conflicts, 1946–2000 Map of escalated conflicts, 1946–2000 Highly structured IGOs and estimated escalation risk Changes in escalation risk Political institutions and escalation risk Changes in the risks of conflict onset and escalation HSIGOs commanding substantial resources and changes in escalation risk HSIGOs commanding substantial resources and conflict escalation Changes in the probability of low-level armed conflict settlements Highly structured IGOs and low-level armed conflict settlement Distribution of mediation and intervention efforts The role of highly structured IGOs intervention, and mediation Mediation, intervention, highly structured IGOs, and conflict escalation Low-level armed conflict escalation patterns over time Highly structured IGOs and escalation risk, using instrumental variable estimates HSIGOs, conflict escalation, and natural resources HSIGOs, rebel strength, and escalation risk HSIGOs, space, time, and changes in escalation risk HSIGOs, conflict diffusion, and changes in escalation risk Variable inclusion in BMA Posterior probabilities of coefficients in BMA LIST OF TABLES 2.1 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 6.1 6.2 6.3 An Assessment of Common Third-Party Conflict Management Policies List of Highly Structured IGOs An Assessment of Third Parties’ Roles in Pre–Civil War Bargaining Low-Level Armed Conflicts That Escalated to Civil Wars, 1946–2000 Descriptive Statistics for All Variables in Model in Table 4.3 Probit Estimates of the Escalation of Low-Level Armed Conflict to Civil War Heckman Probit Estimates of Escalation, Accounting for Selection of Low-Level Armed Conflict Descriptive Statistics for All Analyses The Influence of Highly Structured IGOs Commanding Substantial Resources Highly Structured IGOs and Conflict Settlement Mediation, Intervention, Highly Structured IGOs, and Escalation Instrumental Variable Estimates Natural Resources and Escalation Natural Resources and a Possible Conditional Impact of Highly Structured IGOs Rebel Strength and Escalation Spatial and Temporal Trends of Escalation Conflicts in Proximity and Escalation Territorial Conflicts and Escalation Summary of Key Expectations and Anticipated Evidence Summary of Evidence Pertaining to the Three Cases Expectations and Observed Evidence ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This book has grown out of a long-term collaborative project between the authors Along the way, several colleagues and friends have generously provided feedback and offered helpful thoughts on our work For their comments on the manuscript along its different stages, we thank Kyle Beardsley, Ken Bickers, Margit Bussmann, Courtenay Conrad, Paul Diehl, Bryan Early, Page Fortna, Michael Greig, Håvard Hegre, Ann Karreth, Carmela Lutmar, Helen Milner, Sara Mitchell, Glenn Palmer, Burcu Savun, Carolyn Tir, and Geoffrey Wallace John Vasquez, Patrick James, Paul Diehl, and Matthew Ingram provided advice and guidance in developing and placing the book manuscript At Oxford University Press, we are grateful to David McBride for his editorial guidance The feedback from two anonymous reviewers greatly improved the manuscript We also thank Emily Mackenzie, Ed Robinson, Claire Sibley, and Kathleen Weaver for their assistance during the production of this book and Susan McClung for copy-editing our manuscript In facilitating this research, we have benefited from institutional support from the Departments of Political Science at the University of Colorado Boulder and the University at Albany, the Department of Politics and International Relations at Ursinus College, and the Kroc Institute for 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182–183, 205, 210 African Development Bank (AfDB), 68 African Union (AU), 31, 167, 169, 171, 175 al-Assad, Bashar, 88, 182–186, 190 al-Assad, Hafez, 182 Alatas, Ali, 160 Albright, Madeleine, 155 America, 66, 74, 126, 210 Latin America, 46, 49, 85 South America, 123, 143 Angola, 1, 74, 76, 78, 85 Annan, Kofi, 184, 224 Anwar, Dewi Fortuna, 158 Arab League, 178, 184–185, 190, 224 Arab (League) Peace Plan, 178, 184–185, 190 Arab Spring, 17, 182–183, 198 Asia, 46, 49, 123, 126, 143, 156–157, 160–161, 210 Asian Development Bank (ADB), 164 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 50 Australia, 154–155, 157, 159 Baath Party, 186 Bank Bali, 157 Banque Centrale des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (BCEAO), 170–171, 173, 175–176, 179–180 bargaining, 4, 6–7, 10–11, 14, 19–34, 39–42, 49–50, 52–55, 58–62, 64–69, 71–74, 80, 83–84, 89–91, 97–100, 103–104, 106, 121, 127, 150, 191, 196–197, 199–205, 215–216, 220 bargaining theory, 39–40, 106 bargaining interaction: 11, 31, 54–55, 58–62, 66–69, 89, 99, 191, 205 domestic bargaining, 54, 67 Bedie, Henri Konan, 166 Belo, Carlos, 152 BNP Paribas, 172 Bosnia, 1–2, 17–18, 22–24, 31, 35, 37–38, 78, 86–87, 122, 216 Bosnia-Herzegovina See Bosnia Britain See United Kingdom Burma SeeMyanmar Burundi, 55, 59–61, 74, 76–78, 86–87 Cambodia, 1, 35, 57, 76–77, 148 Camdessus, Michael, 159 Canada, 17, 46, 235, 244 Ceasefire, 107–108 Citibank, 172 Clandestine Front, 163–164 Clinton, Bill, 155 Cold War, 18, 49 commitment problem, 4, 6, 9, 11, 19–20, 23–25, 30, 34, 37, 39, 41, 50, 55, 59–62, 98, 106, 108–109, 149–150, 165, 173–175, 178, 182, 190–191, 193–194, 196, 202, 204, 214–215 Congo See Democratic Republic of the Congo corporations, 43, 80 Costs, 4–7, 9–12, 14–16, 19–22, 24–25, 27–30, 32–41, 55, 58–62, 64–65, 67–69, 97–104, 119, 121, 129, 132, 161–162, 174, 194, 196, 200, 202–205, 209, 221 cost-benefit, 31–32, 34, 38, 59, 162, 204 cost-imposition, 38 Côte d’Ivoire See Ivory Coast credible commitment, 4, 6–7, 9, 11, 19, 23–25, 30, 33–34, 37, 50, 108–109, 149–150, 165, 175, 178, 182, 190, 193, 202, 204 Croatia, 1, 17–18, 22, 78, 122 Cyprus, 35 Dacoury-Tabley, Philippe-Henri, 170 Dayton Accord, 1, 2, 23 democracy, 18–19, 81–83, 91–92, 96, 107, 152–153, 166, 196, 208, 221, 224 Democratic Republic of Korea See North Korea Democratic Republic of the Congo, 31, 75, 78, 225 diamonds See natural resources diplomacy, 15, 28–29, 31, 35–37, 109, 112, 153, 166–167, 169, 185, 198 Downer, Alexander, 155 East African Development Bank (EADB), 43, 99 East Timor, 12, 30, 63–64, 67–68, 86, 100, 147, 151, 153–165, 176–178, 180, 186, 191–192, 197, 200, 203, 205 Economic Community OfWest African States (ECOWAS), 31–32, 43, 100, 148, 166, 168–169, 170–171, 173, 175–176, 179, 180, 218 Ethiopia, 26, 75–76 Ethnicity, 1, 8, 16–19, 26–28, 36, 56, 62, 83, 93–95, 166–167, 208, 211 Europe, 23, 45–46, 58, 85, 122–126, 142–144, 184, 186, 210, 218 European IGOs, 43–44, 125 European Union (EU), 164, 169–171, 175, 179, 181, 184, 224 excluded population, 17, 83–84, 87, 89, 91, 94–95, 101, 106–108, 112, 123, 126, 128–130, 133–138, 140–141, 143, 145–146, 208, 221 FALINTIL, 152 Fischer, Stanley, 158 France, 51, 58, 122, 166, 168, 174, 181, 224 Free Syrian Army, 183 FRETILIN, 152 Gbagbo, Laurent, 86, 88, 100, 151, 166–175, 177–182 GDP, 56, 60, 156, 208 GDP per capita, 56, 82, 84, 87, 89–90, 94–95, 101, 107–108, 112, 123, 126, 129–130, 132, 134–138, 140–142, 145–146, 181, 208, 220–221 Germany, 17, 216 Golan Heights, 35 Great Britain See United Kingdom Greece, 122 greed, 17 grievance, 16–17, 20, 71, 81–83, 90, 96, 199 Gusmão, Xanana, 153 Habibie, Bacharuddin Jusuf, 153, 155, 157–159, 162, 171, 222 Haiti, 19 Houphouet-Boigny, Felix, 166 Howard, John, 155 hydrocarbons, 119, 133, 139, 210 See also natural resources immigration See migration India, 73, 77, 123, 124, 142–144 Indonesia, 5, 7, 12, 30, 49, 60, 63–64, 67, 75, 85–86, 88, 100, 147, 151–165, 171, 176–178, 180, 186–187, 192–193, 197, 200, 203–205, 218 Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), 43, 51, 55, 67 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) See World Bank International Criminal Court (ICC), 22–23, 28, 169 International Force for East Timor (INTERFET), 159 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 5, 42–44, 51, 53, 55, 57–58, 63, 68–69, 99–100, 114, 147, 148, 156–164, 171, 173, 176, 179–181, 186, 188, 190, 200, 203, 223 Intervention, 1–3, 5–6, 9–10, 12, 15, 17, 23–24, 31, 35–37, 40, 42, 66, 109–114, 131, 136, 147–148, 155, 166, 168–169, 172–175, 194, 196, 198, 207, 209, 221 Iran, 36, 77 Irian Jaya, 163 Islamic Development Bank (IDB), 44, 99, 187 Islamic Summit Conference, 187 Ivory Coast, 5, 7, 12, 68, 86, 88, 100, 147, 151, 165–179, 181–182, 186–187, 191–193, 197, 200, 203–205, 224 Japan, 152, 155 Juoro, Umar, 159 Khmer Rouge, 76–77, 148 Kosovo, 1, 31, 35 Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), 62–63 Mbeki, Thabo, 167, 169 mediation, 1, 2–6, 9–10, 15, 24, 31, 34, 37, 40, 42, 109–114, 131, 133, 136, 167, 169, 194, 196, 209, 217, 221 mediator See mediation Middle East, 17, 85, 126, 183, 210 migrants See migration migration, 1, 17, 23–24, 36, 56, 166, 167 moral hazard, 17, 204 multilateral, 2, 5–6, 31, 35–36, 51–52, 69, 202 Myanmar, 75, 123–124, 142–144 natural resources, 17, 99, 118, 119–120, 131, 133, 139, 140, 196, 210 negotiation, 2, 4, 20–21, 27–30, 55, 59, 63–64, 67, 69, 84, 108–109, 148, 153, 164, 216 Nobel Peace Prize, 153 non-governmental organizations (NGOs), 80, 199, 202–203, 220, 225 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 22–23, 31–32, 35 North Korea, 36 Northern Ireland, 31 Obuchi, Keizo, 155 oil, 17, 93–95, 119, 133, 139, 166, 184, 210 See also natural resources Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), 187 Ottoman Empire, 182 Ouattara, Alassane, 167–169, 172, 174–175, 177–182, 203 peace agreement, 4, 11, 19–22, 25, 29–30, 33, 37, 50, 55, 61, 64–65, 104–105, 131, 149–150, 161, 165–166, 173, 176, 185, 190–191, 196, 204, 209, 216 peace deal See peace agreement peace dividend, 205 peace settlement See peace agreement peace treaty See peace agreement peacekeeping, 1–6, 9–10, 15, 22–24, 31, 34–38, 40, 103, 109, 155, 159, 162, 166, 174, 194, 221 Peru, 26, 77, 85 Portugal, 152–153, 163 public health, 1, 16, 18, 24, 26, 56, 164 Ramos-Horta, Jose, 153 recurrence (of armed conflict), 1, 2, 14–16, 18, 24–26, 31, 34, 194, 216 referendum, 18, 153–154, 158–159, 177 refugees See migration Roth, Stanley, 155 Rwanda, 1, 31, 75, 77, 218 Sabirin, Syahril, 158 sanction, 11–12, 28, 31, 36–38, 55, 58, 65–70, 80, 98, 114, 147–149, 158, 160, 162, 166–167, 169, 171–172, 175, 179, 181, 184–186, 201, 205, 208 Serbia, 17–18, 22–23, 36, 87 Sierra Leone, 1, 31, 74, 78 Soeharto See Suharto Somalia, 2, 33, 35, 77 South Africa, 167 Soviet Union, 173, 216 Spain, 86, 88, 122 Sri Lanka, 27, 68, 76–77 Standard Chartered, 172 Strauss-Kahn, Dominique, 181 sub-Saharan Africa See Africa Sudan, 2, 26, 76, 77 Suharto, 153 Sweden, 17 Switzerland, 17 Syria, 2, 7, 12–13, 29–30, 32, 64, 86, 88, 147–148, 151–152, 176–178, 182–191, 192–193, 197, 202, 224 Tajikistan, 78, 86–87 tangible costs See costs third-party, 1–6, 8–10, 15, 17, 22–25, 30–38, 40, 54–55, 58, 60, 62, 64, 68, 104, 108–114, 125, 131, 148, 159, 169, 175, 185–187, 191–194, 210, 212–214, 216–217, 224 timber See natural resources Timor-Leste Petroleum Fund, 164 Timor-Leste See East Timor transnational, 8, 17–18, 125–127, 131 trade, 1, 5–7, 41, 54, 57, 59–60, 98–99, 105, 116–117, 137, 157, 161, 170, 173, 210 treaty See peace agreement Turkey, 77, 183 Uganda, 19, 62, 63, 76–78, 219 United Kingdom, 157 United Nations (UN), 2–3, 6–7, 9, 13, 23, 31, 33, 35, 44, 51–52, 58, 103, 152–155, 157, 159, 162, 164, 166–169, 171, 175, 184, 198, 199, 220 United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET), 154 United Nations Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), 16, 168, 175 United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM), 33 United Nations Security Council (UNSC), 13, 51, 58, 184 United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS), United States, 17, 32–33, 46, 51–52, 58, 66–67, 148, 155, 157, 168, 173, 184, 202, 218 UNPKO See peacekeeping Venezuela, 86, 88 Vietnam, 75, 148 West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), 170–171, 173, 175–176, 180 Wiranto, 155 Wolfensohn, James, 158 World Bank (IBRD), 5, 19, 42–44, 50–52, 55–58, 61, 63, 67–69, 99–100, 147–148, 156–159, 161–164, 171, 173, 176, 179–182, 186, 188–189, 191, 199–200, 202, 210, 215, 218–219 World War II, 1, 5, 11, 15, 40, 62, 152, 182 Young-jin, Choi, 169 Yugoslavia, 18, 31, 74, 78, 115 Zimbabwe, 68, 76 Zoellick, Robert, 171, 181 .. .Incentivizing Peace Incentivizing Peace How International Organizations CanHelp Prevent CivilWars inMember Countries JAROSL AV TIR AND JOHANNE S KARRETH... Cataloging -in- Publication Data Names: Tir, Jaroslav, 1972- author | Karreth, Johannes, author Title: Incentivizing peace : how international organizations can help prevent civil wars in member countries. .. of IGOs can be particularly effective in steering emerging, low-level armed conflicts away from becoming full-scale civil wars These IGOs can be a useful tool in preventing civil wars in the first