i The Road Ahead for America’s Colleges and Universities ii iii The Road Ahead for America’s Colleges and Universities ROBERT B ARCHIBALD DAVID H FELDMAN iv Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America © Oxford University Press 2017 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Archibald, Robert B., 1946– author | Feldman, David H., author Title: The Road Ahead for America’s Colleges and Universities / Robert B Archibald, David H Feldman Description: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, 2017 Identifiers: LCCN 2016041671 | ISBN 9780190251918 (hardback) Subjects: LCSH: Education, Higher—Aims and objectives—United States | College costs—United States | Universities and colleges—United States—Finance | Education, Higher—Effect of technological innovations on—United States | Nontraditional college students—United States | BISAC: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Education | EDUCATION / Higher Classification: LCC LA227.4 A74 2017 | DDC 378.73—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016041671 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America v To Ginger Archibald Henry Paradise Walter Paradise and Susan Lontkowski Anthony Feldman Aidan Feldman vi ╇vi Contents Preface ix PART ONE: ╛╛Introduction The Rhetoric of Higher Education in Crisis The Diverse US Higher Education System 24 The College Bundle 40 PART TWO: ╛╛Threats Internal Threat I: The Rising Costs of Higher Education 59 Internal Threat II: Will Students Keep Coming? 86 Environmental Threat I: Stagnating Family Income 107 Environmental Threat II: Public Disinvestment 132 Technological Threat: The Online Revolution 158 PART THREE: ╛╛Summary and Policy The Enduring Bundle 177 10 The Evolutionary Future 199 11 The Road Ahead: Policy Options 222 Notes 247 Bibliography 263 Index 273 vi ix Preface the origins of this book to two factors First, our 2011 book, Why Does College Cost So Much?, generally was well received That book explored the long trajectory of rising cost and price in the US higher education industry In our story, the driving forces of rising cost are broader economic forces rippling through the entire global economy, not growing inefficiency and bad decision making on campus As we expected, some observers of higher education took issue with our analysis and our conclusions Those disagreements largely were confined to print On the other hand, the publication of the book led to a substantial number of speaking invitations from a wide variety of colleges, universities, and organizations One or both of us gave presentations to many associations representing the diverse spectrum of American higher education institutions A partial list includes the Annapolis Group, the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities (NAICU), the Association of Public and Land Grant Universities (APLU), the Association of Communicators in Education, the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NASFAA), and the Minnesota Private College Council We were also invited to speak to various groups on college campuses, and we spent many days talking to college governing boards The list includes everything from small private colleges and universities like Bates, Bucknell, Fairfield, Kings, Macalester, Oberlin, and Pitzer to larger and more research-oriented universities like Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Rice, Wake Forest, Yale, and our own William and Mary Our presentations usually stimulated a lively conversation and we often got very good feedback But on almost every occasion most of the questions were not about our book They were about the future of higher education This was especially true of board members, some of whom wanted to know if their institution could continue to thrive, while others were concerned if theirs could even survive the particular challenges they faced The questions were very diverse Some wanted to discuss the risks and rewards of embracing WE CAN TRACE ... i The Road Ahead for America’s Colleges and Universities ii iii The Road Ahead for America’s Colleges and Universities ROBERT B ARCHIBALD DAVID H FELDMAN iv Oxford University Press... retirement home The dorms, the dining halls, everything except for the administration building and one information technology building that housed the servers and the support staff for the online... of flat family incomes for 95% of the population Philanthropy offers the other way to pay the bills, and colleges and universities have ratcheted up their fundraising efforts to persuade donors