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Chapter 14 - Evaluating AIS investments. After reading this chapter, you should be able to: Articulate similarities and differences between major IT initiatives and other capital investments, explain the major steps in the economic justification of an IT initiative, explain potential benefits of IT initiatives and how to evaluate them,...
Chapter 14 Evaluating AIS Investments Copyrightâ2014McGrawưHillEducation.Allrightsreserved.NoreproductionordistributionwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofMcGrawưHillEducation Learning Objectives • • • • LO#1 Articulate similarities and differences between major IT initiatives and other capital investments LO#2 Explain the major steps in the economic justification of an IT initiative LO#3 Explain potential benefits of IT initiatives and how to evaluate them LO#4 Assess potential costs of IT initiatives and how to evaluate them LO#5 Describe potential risks of IT initiatives and corresponding risk mitigation techniques LO#6 Apply capital budgeting techniques to assess the value of an IT initiative 14-2 LO# Large IT Projects Require Economic Justification • • • • Worldwide IT spending forecast to exceed $4 trillion by 2015 (according to the Gartner Group in January 2013) IT projects require large amounts of capital and capital is limited Selecting one project often means foregoing others IT projects often involve changes in business processes that will affect substantial portions 14-3 of the organization LO# Business Case for IT Initiatives Should answer these questions: Why are doing this project? How does it address key business issues? How much will it cost and how long will it take? What is the return on investment and payback period? What are the risks of doing the project? 14-4 What are the risks of not doing the project? LO# The Economic Justification Process 14-5 LO# Assessing Business Requirements • • • • Refer to information on the balanced scorecard in Chapter 13 IT initiatives should reduce one or more gaps between the firm’s current and desired performance levels as indicated by the firm’s strategy map IT alone is usually not sufficient to achieve important changes Consider other enabling changes that in conjunction with the technology will14-6 LO# Planned IT Initiatives Potential Benefits 14-7 LO# Examples of Complementary Changes • Training employees • Redefining job descriptions • Reconfiguring tasks • Offering incentives to make changes • Others? 14-8 LO# Estimating Benefits Revenue enhancement—creating new sales opportunities Revenue protection—protecting existing revenue streams Cost savings—opportunities to modify business processes to reduce low valueadded or manually intensive activities, to improve capabilities to manage assets to increase efficiencies, or to reduce errors Cost avoidance—opportunities to14-9 modify LO# Estimating Relevant Costs • Acquisition Costs – Direct costs to acquire and implement • Hardware • Software • Networking • Development • Project Management • Consulting • Training 14-10 LO# Estimating Relevant Costs • Operating Costs – Direct costs necessary to operate, maintain, and administer the technology • Hardware replacements • Software upgrades • Maintenance contracts • Help desk support • Ongoing training • Administration 14-11 • LO# Assessing Risks • • • • • Alignment risk—the solution is not aligned with the strategy of the firm Solution risk—the solution will not generate projected benefits Financial risk—the solution will not deliver expected financial performance Project risk—the project will not be completed on time within budget Change risk—the firm or part of the firm will 14-12 not be able to change LO# Identifying Risk Mitigation Techniques IT Initiative Risks Alignment Risk Solution Risk Financial Risk Project Risk Change Risk Technological Risk Risk Mitigation Examples Use the Balanced Scorecard Framework (Chapter 13) to assess the link to strategy Use sensitivity analysis to consider likely alternative benefit levels Interview other users of similar IT; follow a structured Balanced Scorecard Management Process (Chapter 13) Assure active top management support for the project Conduct training and create employee incentives for successful use of the new IT Require hardware and software vendors to demonstrate that their systems can14-13 meet LO# Combining Benefits, Costs, and Risks • • Fully understand the financial implications of the investment – Determine the relevant time frame for costs and benefits – Select appropriate discount rates to apply – Prepare capital budgeting financial metrics – Assess the sensitivity of results to the assumptions Select the best alternative and summarize 14-14 the reasons for that choice LO# Capital Budgeting Financial Metrics • • • Payback period and breakeven analysis— both compare the costs with benefits of an IT project The breakeven point is where the total value of benefits equals that of total costs The payback is the number of periods needed to recover the project’s initial investment Payback Period = Initial Investment/Increased cash flow per period Assume an IT project is expected to cost 14-15 LO# Capital Budgeting Financial Metrics • • Net present value Sum of the present value present value of all cash inflows minus the sum of the present value of all cash outflows Each cash outflow/inflow is discounted to its present Present Value = CFt/(1 + value r)t Where: CF = cash flow for period t, and r = discount rate (typically the firm’s weighted 14-16 LO# Capital Budgeting Financial Metrics • • • • Internal rate of return (IRR) Discount rate that makes the project’s net present value equal to zero financial calculators and spreadsheet software, such as Microsoft EXCEL, Microsoft Excel, use an iterative technique for calculating IRR Starting with guess, they cycle through the calculations until the result is accurate 14-17 The IRR and NPV functions are related in LO# Capital Budgeting Financial Metrics • • Accounting rate of return (ARR) The average annual income from the IT initiative divided by the initial investment cost ARR = (average annual income from IT initiative) /(total IT initiative investment cost) 14-18 Strengths and Weaknesses of Financial Metrics Financial Metric Strength Weakness Payback Period Easy to calculate and understand Widely used Accounting Rate of Relates estimates to standard Return accounting ratios using accrual accounting Shows impact on operating income Net Present Value Considers the time value of money Incorporates cash flows over the life of the IT initiative Compares the dollar value of the benefits from an IT initiative to the initial investment Internal Rate of Return Considers the time value of money Incorporates cash flows over the life of the IT initiative Computes the unique rate of return for the initiative Not sensitive to a selected discount rate LO# Ignores the time value of money as well as both costs and benefits occurring after the payback period Also ignores the time value of money Assumes cash flows in all periods are similar Larger projects tend to have larger net present values Does not show rate of return on investment Sensitive to discount rate applied Fails to consider the size of the project Sensitive to timing of the cash flows 14-19 LO# Example Discount rate Project Benefits Costs Cash Flow Payback NPV IRR 10% Year $20,000 -$20,000 Year $20,000 $7,500 $12,500 Year $20,000 $7,500 $12,500 Year $30,000 $7,500 $22,500 Total $70,000 $42,500 $27,500 1.26 $16,908 52% Note that total cash flow is equal but NPV and IRR are not, due to time value of money Try it in EXCEL using the NPV and IRR functions! 14-20 Average $23,333 $10,625 $15,833 LO# Test Sensitivity to Changes in Assumptions 14-21 LO# Prepare the Value Proposition • • Assemble the analysis for each alternative IT initiative and recommend the preferred alternatives Focus on these five questions: The change and technology proposed The anticipated benefits (related to the firm’s critical success factors) The group(s) within the firm that will benefit The timing of the benefits 14-22 ... project? 1 4- 4 What are the risks of not doing the project? LO# The Economic Justification Process 1 4- 5 LO# Assessing Business Requirements • • • • Refer to information on the balanced scorecard in Chapter. .. Consider other enabling changes that in conjunction with the technology will1 4-6 LO# Planned IT Initiatives Potential Benefits 1 4- 7 LO# Examples of Complementary Changes • Training employees • Redefining... money Try it in EXCEL using the NPV and IRR functions! 1 4- 20 Average $23,333 $10,625 $15,833 LO# Test Sensitivity to Changes in Assumptions 1 4- 21 LO# Prepare the Value Proposition • • Assemble the