OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017‑2026 Special focus: Southeast Asia www.ebook3000.com OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 www.ebook3000.com This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD and the Director-General of the FAO The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries, or the governments of the FAO member countries This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries The names of countries and territories used in this joint publication follow the practice of the FAO Please cite this publication as: OECD/FAO (2017), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026, OECD Publishing, Paris http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2017-en ISBN 978-92-64-27547-8 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-27550-8 (PDF) ISBN 978-92-64-27548-5 (epub) Series: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook ISSN 1563-0447 (print) ISSN 1999-1142 (online) FAO ISBN 978-92-5-109808-0 The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law The position of the United Nations on the question of Jerusalem is contained in General Assembly Resolution 181(II) of 29 November 1947, and subsequent resolutions of the General Assembly and the Security Council concerning this question Photo credits: Cover © Original cover concept designed by Juan Luis Salazar Adaptations by OECD Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm © OECD/FAO 2017 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD and FAO as source and copyright owner is given All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to rights@oecd.org Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at info@copyright.com or the Centre franỗais dexploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at contact@cfcopies.com FOREWORD Foreword T he food and agriculture sector is faced with a critical global challenge: to ensure access to safe, healthy, and nutritious food for a growing world population, while at the same time using natural resources more sustainably and making an effective contribution to climate change adaptation and mitigation Through this annual collaboration and other studies, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) are working together to provide information, analysis and advice, to help governments achieve these essential objectives This is the 13th joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook It provides ten-year projections to 2026 for the major agricultural commodities, as well as for biofuels and fish The pooling of market and policy information from experts in a wide range of participating countries provides a benchmark necessary for assessing the opportunities and threats to the sector This year’s Agricultural Outlook includes a special focus on Southeast Asia, a region where agriculture and fisheries have developed rapidly and undernourishment has been significantly decreased, but also a region that is on the front line of the effects of climate change and where there are rising pressures on natural resources The Agricultural Outlook comes in the context of a wider set of international efforts to address food security and agricultural issues Two global initiatives stand out: ● The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set ambitious targets to be achieved by 2030 Among these, the first goal is to end poverty in all its forms everywhere, while the second goal pledges to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture The two goals are related as more than three-quarters of the world’s poor depend on agriculture not only for their food, but also for their livelihoods ● Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 2015 Paris Agreement, 195 countries have committed to take action to contain the increase in global average temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels Climate change poses a threat to sustainable food production, but agriculture, which accounts for more than a fifth of all greenhouse gas emissions, can be an active part of the solution The Agricultural Outlook supports these global initiatives by providing a benchmark against which to assess the implications of alternative policies that seek to increase the availability of food sustainably while mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions Such policies include both supply-side measures, such as measures for increasing sustainable productivity growth in agriculture, and demand-side measures for encouraging the reduction of waste and overconsumption The OECD and FAO are working across the board to support the global effort to eradicate poverty and tackle climate change In 2016, Agriculture Ministers convened at both the OECD and FAO in order to chart directions for future policies that can meet these commitments At the OECD meeting, Ministers stressed that policies must promote the resilience, as well as the productivity and sustainability of the agriculture and food sector and rural communities They also recognised that OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 www.ebook3000.com FOREWORD achieving those shared goals will require sustained international co-operation At the FAO meeting, which also involved Trade Ministers, they underlined the importance of agricultural commodities for growth in developing and less developed countries and cautioned about the risks posed by climate change They also stressed the importance of market transparency and policy predictability, as well as the role that trade can play in adapting to climate change Because the areas of projected food demand growth differ from the areas where supply can be increased sustainably, international trade will take on particular importance in the attainment of the SDGs, as well as in adapting to and mitigating climate change The 11th WTO Ministerial Conference, to be held in Buenos Aires in December of this year, will undoubtedly be guided by the need to ensure the agricultural sector makes these global contributions effectively, while also addressing specific food-security concerns in developing countries Food security and agricultural issues have received specific attention in international fora such as the G20 and the G7 A significant initiative was the G20’s Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), which is housed at the FAO and to which the OECD and other international organisations contribute With food prices now closer to long-term trend levels, it is important that the structural issues that remain are not neglected Moreover, food markets are inherently volatile, and today’s relative stability is no reason for complacency More than ever, we must all work together to improve the sustainability of food systems and ensure global food security and healthy nutrition We hope that our collaborative effort on the annual production of this report will continue to provide governments and all other stakeholders with a key element of the information they need to reach the goals set in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement Angel Gurría, José Graziano da Silva, Secretary-General Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Director-General Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements T The Agricultural Outlook, 2017-2026, is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets The baseline projection is not a forecast about the future, but rather a plausible scenario based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, agriculture and trade policy settings, weather conditions, longer term productivity trends and international market developments The Agricultural Outlook is jointly prepared by the OECD and FAO Secretariats At the OECD, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate: Marcel Adenäuer, Jonathan Brooks (Head of Division), Koen Deconinck, Annelies Deuss, Armelle Elasri (publication co-ordinator), Gen Furuhashi, Hubertus Gay (Outlook co-ordinator), Céline Giner, Gaëlle Gouarin, Claude Nenert, Graham Pilgrim and Grégoire Tallard of the Agro-Food Trade and Markets Division, and for fish and seafood by James Innes and Antonia Leroy of the Natural Resources Policy Division The OECD Secretariat is grateful for the contributions provided by visiting experts Ashwina Aubeeluck (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada), and Si Zhizhi (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences) The organisation of meetings and publication preparation were provided by Helen Maguire and Michèle Patterson Technical assistance in the preparation of the Outlook database was provided by Eric Espinasse and Frano Ilicic Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations provided useful comments on earlier drafts of the report At the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the projections were prepared by economists and commodity officers from the Trade and Markets Division (EST) under the leadership of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen (EST Division Director) and Josef Schmidhuber (EST Division Deputy Director) with the overall guidance of Kostas Stamoulis (Assistant Director-General, Economic and Social Development Department) The core projections team consisted of ElMamoun Amrouk, Sergio René Araujo Enciso, Pedro Arias, Eduard Bukin, Emily Carroll, Merritt Cluff, Hannah Fried, Yasmine Iqbal, Holger Matthey (Team Leader) and Jorge Soguero Escuer Commodity expertise was provided by Abdolreza Abbassian, Paulo Augusto Lourenỗo Dias Nunes, Michael Griffin, Shirley Mustafa, Adam Prakash, Peter Thoenes, G A Upali Wickramasinghe and Di Yang Input on special topics and boxes was provided by Katinka de Balogh, Matthew Burnett, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Ekaterina Krivonos, Pascal Liu, Juan Lubroth and Francesco N Tubiello We thank visiting expert Tracy Davids from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Pretoria Stefania Vannuccini from the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department contributed, with technical support from Pierre Charlebois Advice on fishmeal and fish oil OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 www.ebook3000.com ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS issues was provided by Enrico Bachis from the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO) Research assistance and database preparation were provided by Claudio Cerquiglini, Julie Claro, Emanuele Marocco and Marco Milo Jiyeon Chang provided valuable input into the drafting of the overview chapter This edition also benefited from comments made by other colleagues from FAO and member country institutions and was closely reviewed by Günter Hemrich, Michelle Kendrick, Anna Lartey, Regina Laub, José Rosero Moncayo, Marco Sánchez Cantillo, Rob Vos and Natalia Winder Rossi FAO’s James Edge, Yongdong Fu, Pedro Javaloyes, Jessica Mathewson, Raffaella Rucci and Juan Luis Salazar provided invaluable assistance with publication and communication issues Chapter of the Outlook, “Southeast Asia: Prospects and challenges”, was prepared by the Secretariats at FAO and OECD led by Jared Greenville of the Development Division of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate and Merritt Cluff Contribution in OECD besides before mentioned members of the Trade and Agricultural Directorate was provided in form of the box on “The potential role of agriculture in the future development of Myanmar” by Martha Baxter of the OECD Development Centre Input from FAO on special topics and boxes was provided by Sumiter Broca, Fang Cheng, Cristina Coslet, David Dawe, Aziz Elbehri and Shirley Mustafa Finally, information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory Committee, International Dairy Federation, International Grains Council, International Sugar Organization, Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO) and World Association of Beet and Cane Growers is gratefully acknowledged The complete Agricultural Outlook, including more detailed commodity chapters, the full statistical annex and fully documented Outlook database, including historical data and projections, can be accessed through the OECD-FAO joint internet site: www.agri-outlook.org The published Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 report provides: an overview of global agriculture and prospects; an in-depth analysis of the outlook for Southeast Asian agriculture and a consideration of some of the challenges facing the sector; and short snapshots for each commodity with associated statistical tables The more detailed commodity chapters and an extended statistical annex are contained in the OECD’s iLibrary version of the report OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents Acronyms and abbreviations 11 Executive Summary 15 Chapter Overview of the Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 The setting: Record production levels and abundant stocks led to continued price decreases in 2016 Summary of macroeconomic conditions and policy assumptions Consumption Production Trade Prices Risks and uncertainties 17 18 18 21 34 41 48 53 Notes References 57 57 Chapter Southeast Asia: Prospects and challenges Introduction 59 Developments in agriculture and fisheries in Southeast Asia Medium-term outlook 60 61 82 Notes References 96 96 Chapter Commodity snapshots Cereals Oilseeds and oilseed products Sugar Meat Dairy and dairy products Fish and seafood Biofuels Cotton 101 102 104 107 110 113 116 119 122 Annex: Commodity snapshot tables 125 More detailed commodity chapters as well as the Glossary, Methodology and Statistical Annex are available on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2017-en OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 www.ebook3000.com TABLE OF CONTENTS Tables 2.1 2.2 3.A1.1 3.A1.2 3.A1.3 3.A1.4 3.A1.5 3.A1.6 3.A1.7 3.A1.8 3.A1.9 Figures 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.31 Contextual indicators for selected countries in Southeast Asia, 2015 Self-sufficiency targets of ASEAN members World cereal projections World oilseed projections World sugar projections World meat projections World dairy projections: Butter and cheese World dairy projections: Powders and casein World fish and seafood projections World biofuel projections World cotton projections 61 78 126 128 130 131 132 133 134 136 137 Current market conditions for key commodities Annual growth in consumption for key commodity groups, 2007-16 and 2017-26 Regional shares in commodity consumption growth, 2016-26 Fish: Regional shares in demand growth and per capita food consumption Pigmeat: Regional shares in demand growth and per capita food consumption Beef and veal: Regional shares in demand growth and per capita food consumption Poultry: Regional shares in demand growth and per capita food consumption Fresh dairy products: Regional shares in demand growth and per capita food consumption Per capita food consumption of meat and fish in 2026 Per capita food use of cereals in 2026 Per capita calorie availability by food category Per capita protein availability by food category Feed: Regional shares in demand growth and total use Growth in biofuel production, 2000-26 Growth in demand for maize (left) and vegetable oil (right), by use Increase in maize production due to area expansion and yield growth, 2016-26 Trends of global land use of agriculture Average annual crop land change for selected countries Maize yields in the United States and globally Milk production in selected countries Meat production, by type and country Fish production Growth in trade volumes by commodity Evolution of trade volume for merchandise trade and agricultural trade Impact on agro-food trade of policies, reforms and drifts Share of production traded Share of production traded for selected commodities Imports as share of domestic cereals demand in selected Middle Eastern and African countries Export shares of the top exporters in 2026, by commodity Import shares of top importers in 2026, by commodity Medium-term evolution of commodity prices in real terms 19 22 23 24 25 26 27 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 34 35 36 37 37 38 40 40 41 42 44 44 45 46 46 48 49 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.1 World cereal projections Marketing year WHEAT World Production Area Yield Consumption Feed use Food use Biofuel use Other use Exports Closing stocks Price1 Developed countries Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks Developing countries Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks OECD2 Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks MAIZE World Production Area Yield Consumption Feed use Food use Biofuel use Other use Exports Closing stocks Price3 Developed countries Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks Developing countries Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks OECD2 Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks 126 Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mt Mha t/ha Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 742.1 222.7 3.33 722.4 138.5 491.5 13.1 79.2 165.8 226.3 744.2 222.8 3.34 754.2 148.5 507.1 13.2 85.5 168.8 226.1 755.5 223.5 3.38 753.2 146.4 512.8 13.6 80.4 173.9 226.0 763.3 224.0 3.41 760.6 148.0 517.7 13.7 81.3 176.5 226.3 771.4 224.4 3.44 767.9 149.8 522.4 13.6 82.2 178.5 227.3 780.0 224.9 3.47 775.9 152.0 527.3 13.3 83.2 180.4 229.0 788.1 225.3 3.50 783.2 153.9 532.3 13.6 83.5 182.7 231.6 796.3 225.6 3.53 791.1 155.9 537.1 13.4 84.7 184.8 234.4 804.4 226.0 3.56 798.9 157.8 542.1 13.4 85.6 186.9 237.4 812.4 226.4 3.59 806.9 159.9 547.0 13.5 86.5 189.1 240.4 820.8 226.7 3.62 815.3 162.3 551.9 13.3 87.8 191.1 243.5 USD/t 207.3 200.5 202.5 208.2 215.9 225.3 232.7 238.5 243.6 246.2 248.9 Mt Mt Mt Mt 397.5 275.2 115.4 78.4 396.7 279.9 121.4 81.1 403.7 277.9 126.8 80.1 407.0 279.5 129.0 78.7 410.8 281.0 130.6 77.8 414.6 282.9 132.0 77.5 418.0 284.4 133.6 77.5 421.2 286.1 135.0 77.5 424.4 287.7 136.5 77.7 427.6 289.4 138.1 77.9 430.9 291.1 139.5 78.3 Mt Mt Mt Mt 344.6 447.2 -112.9 147.9 347.4 474.3 -119.0 145.0 351.8 475.3 -124.3 145.8 356.3 481.1 -126.6 147.6 360.6 486.9 -128.2 149.5 365.4 492.9 -129.5 151.5 370.2 498.8 -131.2 154.1 375.1 504.9 -132.6 156.8 380.1 511.3 -134.1 159.7 384.8 517.6 -135.6 162.6 389.9 524.2 -137.0 165.3 Mt Mt Mt Mt 298.0 224.5 68.5 58.7 294.0 230.0 69.2 58.6 298.2 227.4 71.8 57.5 300.8 228.6 73.7 56.0 303.4 229.7 74.6 55.2 306.1 231.1 75.4 54.8 308.4 232.1 76.5 54.6 310.7 233.3 77.4 54.6 312.8 234.4 78.4 54.6 315.0 235.6 79.4 54.5 317.1 236.7 80.1 54.7 024.7 177.9 5.76 015.1 574.1 131.5 167.5 99.0 135.3 228.8 042.4 178.0 5.85 041.3 600.9 135.7 176.6 84.0 137.9 222.1 050.8 178.0 5.90 058.3 609.3 137.9 181.0 85.4 138.4 213.3 066.2 178.7 5.96 072.2 621.7 140.0 181.4 83.6 139.3 206.1 078.9 179.0 6.03 083.2 629.9 142.1 183.4 81.5 140.6 200.6 096.0 179.9 6.09 096.0 642.1 144.4 182.8 79.8 143.0 199.4 109.7 180.4 6.15 106.6 650.8 146.8 182.7 78.7 145.6 201.3 123.0 180.8 6.21 119.6 662.2 149.2 182.3 77.8 148.1 203.5 136.0 181.0 6.28 132.1 672.8 151.5 181.9 77.3 150.2 206.2 149.4 181.4 6.34 147.0 683.8 153.9 181.5 78.6 152.4 207.5 163.7 181.8 6.40 161.2 695.4 156.3 180.8 78.9 154.5 208.8 USD/t 164.4 156.5 161.1 164.9 173.5 179.4 183.8 185.5 190.2 193.6 196.7 Mt Mt Mt Mt 504.7 447.5 46.9 80.3 513.1 465.6 47.9 86.3 515.0 472.4 46.4 82.5 521.7 478.4 46.9 78.8 526.6 482.3 47.1 76.0 533.4 486.7 47.4 75.3 538.4 488.8 48.2 76.6 543.6 493.1 49.8 77.3 548.4 496.8 51.2 77.8 553.3 500.8 52.2 78.1 558.6 505.1 53.2 78.3 Mt Mt Mt Mt 520.0 567.6 -45.4 148.5 529.4 575.7 -46.7 135.8 535.8 586.0 -45.2 130.8 544.5 593.8 -45.7 127.3 552.3 600.9 -45.9 124.6 562.7 609.3 -46.2 124.1 571.3 617.8 -47.0 124.7 579.5 626.6 -48.6 126.2 587.6 635.4 -50.0 128.4 596.1 646.2 -51.0 129.4 605.1 656.0 -52.0 130.5 Mt Mt Mt Mt 474.8 466.3 -1.9 78.3 478.5 485.8 -5.8 84.6 479.6 492.6 -7.8 79.4 485.7 498.5 -8.5 75.1 489.9 502.3 -9.6 72.3 496.2 506.8 -9.8 71.6 500.7 509.0 -9.6 72.9 505.3 513.2 -8.4 73.4 509.6 516.9 -7.7 73.8 513.9 521.0 -7.2 74.0 518.7 525.3 -6.8 74.2 Mt Mha t/ha Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.1 World cereal projections (cont.) Marketing year OTHER COARSE GRAINS World Production Area Yield Consumption Feed use Food use Biofuel use Other use Exports Closing stocks Price4 Developed countries Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks Developing countries Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks OECD2 Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks RICE World Production Area Yield Consumption Feed use Food use Exports Closing stocks Price5 Developed countries Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks Developing countries Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks OECD2 Production Consumption Net trade Closing stocks Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mt Mha t/ha Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 301.4 156.2 1.93 292.5 165.1 75.5 7.8 44.2 49.2 58.1 302.1 153.9 1.96 298.1 166.5 77.9 9.8 43.9 43.4 61.4 305.4 154.0 1.98 300.3 166.7 79.6 10.1 43.9 43.9 61.5 308.5 154.2 2.00 304.1 169.1 81.0 10.1 43.9 44.9 60.8 311.8 154.3 2.02 307.2 172.2 82.4 10.2 42.4 45.9 60.4 315.2 154.4 2.04 310.4 174.3 83.8 10.2 42.1 46.7 60.1 318.6 154.6 2.06 313.2 175.7 85.3 10.1 42.2 47.7 60.5 321.9 154.8 2.08 316.5 177.6 86.8 9.9 42.1 48.7 60.9 325.1 154.9 2.10 319.7 179.2 88.4 9.9 42.1 49.5 61.3 328.5 155.1 2.12 323.1 180.7 89.9 9.9 42.6 50.3 61.5 331.8 155.3 2.14 326.5 182.0 91.5 9.9 43.0 51.2 61.8 USD/t 179.4 154.6 155.6 162.3 170.2 181.1 186.8 187.8 191.9 195.3 198.3 Mt Mt Mt Mt 188.9 150.1 36.2 37.1 185.4 156.1 30.4 41.2 186.8 156.1 30.7 41.2 188.1 156.9 31.6 40.8 189.3 157.2 32.4 40.4 190.4 157.5 33.1 40.3 191.5 157.5 34.0 40.4 192.5 157.7 34.8 40.4 193.5 157.9 35.5 40.5 194.5 158.4 36.1 40.5 195.5 158.6 36.9 40.4 Mt Mt Mt Mt 112.5 142.4 -30.1 21.0 116.7 142.0 -25.3 20.2 118.6 144.2 -25.6 20.2 120.4 147.2 -26.5 20.0 122.6 150.0 -27.4 19.9 124.8 152.8 -28.0 19.9 127.1 155.7 -28.9 20.1 129.4 158.7 -29.8 20.5 131.6 161.7 -30.4 20.8 134.0 164.8 -31.1 21.1 136.4 167.8 -31.9 21.5 Mt Mt Mt Mt 155.0 129.3 24.9 30.9 150.2 133.2 18.8 31.7 151.4 132.7 19.0 31.4 152.4 133.3 19.6 30.9 153.3 133.4 20.3 30.6 154.3 133.6 20.7 30.5 155.3 133.5 21.4 30.8 156.2 133.9 22.1 31.0 157.1 134.3 22.6 31.2 158.0 134.9 23.0 31.4 159.0 135.4 23.6 31.4 Mt Mha t/ha Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 494.9 162.3 3.05 494.7 20.6 399.9 44.0 171.7 506.5 163.8 3.09 507.6 21.9 409.6 42.7 169.4 512.5 163.8 3.13 513.5 22.6 414.4 43.7 167.9 518.2 163.9 3.16 518.1 23.0 418.9 44.7 167.5 524.2 164.0 3.20 524.3 23.3 423.8 45.6 166.9 530.0 164.0 3.23 530.1 23.7 428.2 46.6 166.4 536.1 164.0 3.27 535.8 23.9 432.6 47.4 166.2 542.1 164.1 3.30 541.8 24.2 437.0 48.3 166.1 548.3 164.1 3.34 547.8 24.5 441.4 49.3 166.2 554.6 164.2 3.38 553.9 24.8 445.8 50.2 166.5 560.9 164.2 3.42 560.1 25.2 450.3 51.2 166.8 USD/t 375.1 389.0 393.5 398.4 400.3 405.0 407.6 409.5 411.1 412.9 415.5 Mt Mt Mt Mt 18.1 19.1 -1.1 5.1 17.3 19.3 -1.4 4.4 18.2 19.3 -0.9 4.2 18.2 19.3 -1.0 4.1 18.3 19.3 -1.0 4.1 18.4 19.3 -1.0 4.1 18.4 19.3 -1.0 4.2 18.5 19.3 -1.0 4.3 18.5 19.3 -1.0 4.5 18.6 19.3 -0.9 4.7 18.6 19.3 -0.9 4.9 Mt Mt Mt Mt 476.8 475.6 1.5 166.5 489.2 488.3 1.8 165.0 494.3 494.3 1.4 163.7 499.9 498.8 1.4 163.4 505.9 505.0 1.5 162.9 511.6 510.8 1.4 162.3 517.6 516.5 1.4 162.0 523.7 522.5 1.4 161.7 529.8 528.4 1.4 161.7 536.0 534.6 1.4 161.8 542.3 540.8 1.3 161.9 Mt Mt Mt Mt 21.8 22.9 -1.4 6.6 20.8 23.3 -1.6 5.8 21.7 23.2 -1.2 5.4 21.6 23.1 -1.3 5.2 21.7 23.0 -1.3 5.1 21.7 23.0 -1.3 5.1 21.7 22.9 -1.3 5.2 21.7 22.9 -1.3 5.3 21.7 22.8 -1.3 5.4 21.7 22.8 -1.3 5.6 21.7 22.7 -1.3 5.8 Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May) Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August) Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December) Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database) doi: dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 www.ebook3000.com 127 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.2 World oilseed projections Marketing year SOYBEAN World Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks Price1 Developed countries Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks Developing countries Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks OECD2 Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks OTHER OILSEEDS World Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks Price3 Developed countries Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks Developing countries Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks OECD2 Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks PROTEIN MEALS World Production Consumption Closing stocks Price4 Developed countries Production Consumption Closing stocks Developing countries Production Consumption Closing stocks OECD2 Production Consumption Closing stocks 128 Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mt Mt Mt Mt 325.6 322.2 288.1 36.3 338.6 341.9 306.3 33.5 344.6 347.0 310.8 31.1 350.7 352.0 315.5 29.8 358.2 358.6 321.6 29.4 364.7 365.3 327.9 28.8 372.9 372.5 334.6 29.1 378.7 379.0 340.6 28.8 386.7 386.2 347.5 29.3 393.1 393.3 354.1 29.0 401.3 401.1 361.4 29.2 USD/t 402.2 389.7 398.2 408.6 412.0 430.6 434.0 439.6 439.5 442.2 446.1 Mt Mt Mt Mt 127.3 86.7 77.7 11.3 128.0 88.2 79.6 13.2 128.9 89.0 80.3 11.4 129.7 89.2 80.6 10.6 131.6 90.4 81.7 10.3 133.3 91.5 82.8 10.3 135.2 92.8 84.0 10.6 136.4 93.5 84.8 10.7 138.2 94.7 86.0 11.2 139.6 95.6 86.9 11.2 141.1 97.1 88.2 11.7 Mt Mt Mt Mt 198.3 235.5 210.4 25.0 210.7 253.7 226.7 20.3 215.7 258.0 230.5 19.7 220.9 262.8 234.9 19.2 226.6 268.2 239.9 19.0 231.4 273.8 245.1 18.5 237.7 279.8 250.5 18.5 242.3 285.5 255.8 18.2 248.4 291.5 261.4 18.1 253.4 297.7 267.2 17.8 260.2 304.0 273.2 17.6 Mt Mt Mt Mt 119.6 87.5 78.4 11.2 119.4 89.1 80.3 12.9 120.1 89.8 81.0 11.1 120.7 89.9 81.1 10.3 122.3 91.1 82.2 10.0 123.7 92.0 83.2 10.0 125.3 93.1 84.3 10.3 126.3 93.8 84.9 10.4 127.9 94.9 86.1 10.9 129.0 95.8 86.9 10.9 130.2 97.2 88.2 11.3 Mt Mt Mt Mt 139.9 141.1 119.5 8.1 146.0 145.2 123.2 8.2 147.7 147.5 125.4 8.4 149.4 149.6 127.4 8.2 151.1 151.4 129.1 7.9 152.7 152.9 130.6 7.8 154.3 154.4 131.9 7.7 156.3 156.2 133.6 7.8 158.0 158.0 135.2 7.8 159.3 159.5 136.6 7.6 161.2 161.0 138.0 7.8 USD/t 420.0 431.3 425.0 428.3 441.7 451.4 454.4 459.0 465.8 477.3 483.2 Mt Mt Mt Mt 84.3 76.6 69.5 6.2 88.1 79.7 72.5 6.5 89.1 81.1 73.8 6.7 90.3 82.2 74.7 6.5 91.4 82.9 75.3 6.2 92.5 83.6 76.0 6.0 93.4 84.3 76.5 5.9 94.9 85.2 77.3 6.0 96.0 86.0 78.0 6.0 96.7 86.7 78.7 5.8 98.0 87.4 79.2 6.0 Mt Mt Mt Mt 55.6 64.6 50.0 1.9 57.9 65.4 50.7 1.7 58.6 66.4 51.7 1.7 59.1 67.4 52.7 1.7 59.7 68.5 53.8 1.7 60.2 69.2 54.6 1.8 60.9 70.1 55.4 1.8 61.4 71.1 56.3 1.8 62.0 72.0 57.2 1.8 62.6 72.8 58.0 1.9 63.3 73.7 58.8 1.9 Mt Mt Mt Mt 57.9 54.4 49.3 5.4 58.6 54.6 49.6 5.6 59.0 55.5 50.4 5.7 59.5 56.0 50.8 5.5 59.9 56.2 50.9 5.3 60.3 56.4 51.1 5.1 60.5 56.5 51.2 5.0 61.2 56.8 51.4 5.0 61.6 57.0 51.6 5.0 61.5 57.1 51.7 4.8 62.0 57.1 51.6 5.0 Mt Mt Mt 314.5 308.8 16.0 331.2 330.1 16.4 335.8 335.0 17.1 340.3 340.5 16.9 346.1 346.4 16.6 352.2 352.5 16.3 358.6 358.7 16.2 364.6 364.8 16.0 371.2 371.3 15.8 377.5 377.5 15.8 384.3 384.2 15.9 USD/t 340.2 296.4 294.9 297.9 302.6 313.1 313.0 318.7 321.0 327.2 335.3 Mt Mt Mt 101.2 116.8 1.8 104.3 122.0 1.7 105.2 123.0 1.7 105.7 123.7 1.7 106.9 124.8 1.7 108.1 125.7 1.7 109.4 126.8 1.7 110.4 127.8 1.7 111.7 128.9 1.7 112.8 129.9 1.7 114.0 130.8 1.7 Mt Mt Mt 213.3 192.0 14.2 226.8 208.1 14.7 230.5 212.0 15.4 234.6 216.8 15.2 239.3 221.6 14.9 244.1 226.8 14.6 249.2 231.9 14.5 254.2 237.1 14.3 259.5 242.4 14.1 264.8 247.7 14.1 270.2 253.4 14.2 Mt Mt Mt 94.0 122.2 1.7 95.9 128.1 1.6 96.6 129.2 1.6 96.7 129.9 1.6 97.7 131.2 1.6 98.6 132.1 1.6 99.6 133.2 1.6 100.3 134.1 1.6 101.4 135.3 1.6 102.2 136.3 1.6 103.2 137.3 1.6 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.2 World oilseed projections (cont.) Marketing year VEGETABLE OILS World Production of which palm oil Consumption Food Biofuel Exports Closing stocks Price5 Developed countries Production Consumption Closing stocks Developing countries Production Consumption Closing stocks OECD2 Production Consumption Closing stocks Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 179.0 61.8 180.0 141.4 23.9 75.3 22.7 189.9 66.9 189.5 147.8 26.2 79.1 21.7 193.2 68.4 192.6 150.1 26.8 80.2 22.2 196.4 69.9 196.1 153.0 27.1 81.6 22.5 199.6 71.2 199.5 156.2 27.0 82.7 22.5 202.8 72.5 202.6 159.3 26.7 84.1 22.7 206.0 73.7 205.8 162.4 26.6 85.5 22.8 209.3 75.1 209.1 165.5 26.5 87.0 23.1 212.9 76.5 212.7 168.8 26.5 88.6 23.3 216.4 77.9 216.0 171.9 26.4 90.0 23.7 219.8 79.3 219.5 175.2 26.4 91.5 24.0 USD/t 768.3 827.7 829.2 838.2 849.9 862.2 871.8 884.2 896.6 897.4 902.0 Mt Mt Mt 46.0 51.2 4.4 47.7 52.0 4.2 48.2 51.9 4.2 48.5 52.1 4.1 49.0 52.2 4.0 49.5 52.5 4.0 50.0 52.6 4.0 50.4 52.7 3.9 51.0 52.8 3.9 51.4 52.7 3.9 51.9 52.6 3.9 Mt Mt Mt 132.9 128.7 18.3 142.2 137.5 17.5 145.0 140.7 18.0 147.8 144.0 18.4 150.6 147.3 18.6 153.3 150.2 18.7 156.0 153.3 18.9 158.9 156.4 19.1 162.0 159.8 19.4 164.9 163.3 19.7 167.9 166.9 20.0 Mt Mt Mt 37.9 50.8 3.8 38.3 51.7 3.5 38.7 51.8 3.5 38.8 52.0 3.4 39.0 52.2 3.3 39.3 52.5 3.3 39.6 52.7 3.3 39.8 52.9 3.3 40.1 53.1 3.2 40.4 53.1 3.2 40.6 53.1 3.2 Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg Weighted average protein meal, European port Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database) doi: dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 www.ebook3000.com 129 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.3 World sugar projections Marketing year Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mt Mha t/ha Mt 261.9 4.5 58.72 13.2 276.3 4.6 59.99 11.4 276.2 4.6 60.12 10.3 270.8 4.5 60.84 10.0 269.5 4.4 61.11 9.9 268.8 4.4 61.41 10.0 268.9 4.4 61.69 9.4 268.7 4.3 61.95 9.4 269.1 4.3 62.24 9.4 270.4 4.3 62.59 9.4 271.4 4.3 62.91 9.3 Mt Mha t/ha Mt 844.0 27.0 68.39 343.5 918.8 27.7 69.34 362.6 947.2 27.9 69.69 371.3 977.9 28.2 70.11 381.4 998.0 28.4 70.45 391.9 018.0 28.5 70.78 399.0 044.3 28.7 71.17 407.4 078.0 29.0 71.54 412.7 116.6 29.4 71.91 418.9 157.6 29.8 72.28 426.0 197.9 30.3 72.65 432.9 Mt tq Mt tq Mt tq 168.6 168.3 72.8 179.2 174.3 67.1 184.1 176.7 69.8 187.2 179.8 72.5 190.0 183.0 74.8 192.4 186.5 76.1 195.3 189.7 77.0 198.8 192.9 78.1 202.2 196.3 79.3 205.9 199.7 80.7 209.5 203.3 82.3 Price, raw sugar1 USD/t 361.6 403.2 383.9 369.2 350.8 354.5 359.2 357.4 365.7 367.3 367.1 Price, white sugar2 USD/t 429.9 487.7 471.4 453.4 437.6 439.3 442.9 443.6 452.2 454.1 452.6 Price, HFCS3 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES SUGARBEET Production SUGARCANE Production SUGAR Production Consumption Closing stocks HFCS Production Consumption DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SUGARBEET Production SUGARCANE Production SUGAR Production Consumption Closing stocks HFCS Production Consumption USD/t 651.5 609.5 538.3 524.3 511.3 516.5 523.8 523.0 535.1 542.9 543.6 Mt 217.4 218.8 217.3 211.2 209.4 208.2 207.9 207.1 206.5 207.0 206.9 Mt 81.1 83.4 85.0 86.6 87.3 87.1 87.2 87.3 87.6 88.2 88.4 Mt tq Mt tq Mt tq 40.3 47.6 14.8 43.9 47.8 14.6 44.3 47.8 15.5 43.6 47.7 16.0 43.5 47.8 16.5 43.4 48.0 16.8 43.6 48.2 16.9 43.7 48.4 17.0 43.8 48.6 17.0 44.1 48.8 17.1 44.3 49.1 17.2 Mt Mt 9.4 8.3 9.7 8.6 9.8 8.6 10.0 8.8 10.3 9.0 10.4 9.2 10.5 9.2 10.5 9.2 10.6 9.2 10.6 9.3 10.7 9.3 Mt 44.5 57.5 59.0 59.6 60.1 60.6 61.0 61.7 62.5 63.4 64.5 Mt 763.0 835.4 862.2 891.3 910.7 930.8 957.1 990.6 029.0 069.4 109.6 128.3 120.6 58.0 135.3 126.6 52.5 139.9 128.9 54.3 143.6 132.1 56.5 146.5 135.1 58.3 149.0 138.4 59.3 151.7 141.5 60.1 155.1 144.5 61.1 158.3 147.7 62.2 161.8 150.9 63.6 165.2 154.2 65.1 Mt Mt 3.5 4.5 3.7 4.7 3.7 4.8 3.8 4.8 3.8 4.9 3.9 5.0 3.9 5.0 4.0 5.1 4.0 5.2 4.1 5.3 4.2 5.3 Mt 170.1 183.6 182.7 176.8 175.1 173.9 173.3 172.0 171.2 171.6 171.5 Mt 120.3 123.1 125.1 127.2 128.3 128.3 129.3 130.3 131.3 132.4 133.3 Mt tq Mt tq Mt tq 39.5 44.9 13.1 43.4 45.3 12.7 43.9 45.3 13.5 43.2 45.1 13.8 43.2 45.3 14.2 43.1 45.4 14.3 43.2 45.5 14.4 43.3 45.8 14.5 43.5 46.0 14.7 43.7 46.3 14.8 43.9 46.5 14.9 Mt Mt 10.6 10.3 10.9 10.6 11.0 10.7 11.3 11.0 11.5 11.2 11.7 11.4 11.7 11.4 11.8 11.5 11.8 11.5 11.9 11.6 11.9 11.6 WORLD SUGARBEET Production Area Yield Biofuel use SUGARCANE Production Area Yield Biofuel use SUGAR Production Consumption Closing stocks OECD4 SUGARBEET Production SUGARCANE Production SUGAR Production Consumption Closing stocks HFCS Production Consumption Mt tq Mt tq Mt tq Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated tq : tel quel HFCS: High fructose corn syrup Raw sugar world price, ICE contract No11 nearby, October/September Refined sugar price, White Sugar Futures Contract No 407, Euronext market, Liffe, London, Europe, October/September United States wholesale list price HFCS-55, October/September Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database) doi: dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en 130 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.4 World meat projections Calendar year WORLD BEEF AND VEAL Production Consumption PIGMEAT Production Consumption POULTRY MEAT Production Consumption SHEEP MEAT Production Consumption TOTAL MEAT Per capita consumption1 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES BEEF AND VEAL Production Consumption PIGMEAT Production Consumption POULTRY MEAT Production Consumption SHEEP MEAT Production Consumption TOTAL MEAT Per capita consumption1 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BEEF AND VEAL Production Consumption PIGMEAT Production Consumption POULTRY MEAT Production Consumption SHEEP MEAT Production Consumption TOTAL MEAT Per capita consumption1 OECD2 BEEF AND VEAL Production Consumption PIGMEAT Production Consumption POULTRY MEAT Production Consumption SHEEP MEAT Production Consumption TOTAL MEAT Per capita consumption1 Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 kt cwe kt cwe 68 471 67 538 69 942 69 723 70 652 70 371 71 187 70 898 71 854 71 557 72 621 72 312 73 400 73 090 74 146 73 843 74 766 74 464 75 496 75 196 76 341 76 041 kt cwe kt cwe 116 907 116 912 117 975 117 931 118 639 118 653 120 090 120 092 121 441 121 437 122 515 122 513 123 299 123 298 124 531 124 525 125 683 125 677 126 685 126 679 127 526 127 521 kt rtc kt rtc 113 875 113 228 118 080 118 081 119 205 119 208 120 885 120 887 122 461 122 463 124 036 124 036 125 608 125 605 127 196 127 192 128 737 128 734 130 256 130 254 131 609 131 607 kt cwe kt cwe 14 318 14 288 14 711 14 712 15 045 15 052 15 343 15 354 15 760 15 770 16 103 16 114 16 405 16 410 16 719 16 715 16 978 16 976 17 237 17 238 17 515 17 515 kg rwt 34.1 34.3 34.2 34.3 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.6 34.6 kt cwe kt cwe 29 428 28 347 30 024 29 025 30 240 29 137 30 223 29 181 30 259 29 276 30 337 29 331 30 458 29 458 30 636 29 650 30 739 29 781 30 880 29 930 31 045 30 096 kt cwe kt cwe 43 006 39 989 44 562 41 151 44 036 40 854 44 182 41 058 44 538 41 455 44 760 41 634 44 746 41 553 45 036 41 776 45 347 42 041 45 540 42 170 45 596 42 140 kt rtc kt rtc 47 328 44 873 49 261 46 983 49 364 47 004 49 939 47 438 50 466 47 828 50 932 48 127 51 361 48 440 51 810 48 735 52 173 48 997 52 520 49 215 52 756 49 343 kt cwe kt cwe 393 699 348 732 385 771 429 795 462 816 496 840 534 857 572 875 600 893 628 912 662 934 kg rwt 66.4 68.3 68.0 68.2 68.5 68.7 68.7 68.9 69.2 69.3 69.3 kt cwe kt cwe 39 043 39 191 39 917 40 698 40 411 41 234 40 964 41 718 41 595 42 281 42 284 42 981 42 943 43 632 43 510 44 192 44 027 44 683 44 616 45 266 45 297 45 945 kt cwe kt cwe 73 901 76 923 73 412 76 780 74 603 77 799 75 908 79 034 76 903 79 982 77 755 80 879 78 554 81 745 79 496 82 750 80 336 83 635 81 145 84 509 81 930 85 381 kt rtc kt rtc 66 546 68 355 68 819 71 098 69 842 72 205 70 945 73 449 71 995 74 635 73 104 75 909 74 247 77 166 75 386 78 457 76 564 79 737 77 737 81 039 78 852 82 265 kt cwe kt cwe 10 926 11 590 11 362 11 979 11 660 12 281 11 915 12 559 12 298 12 954 12 607 13 275 12 871 13 553 13 147 13 841 13 378 14 083 13 610 14 326 13 853 14 581 kg rwt 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 kt cwe kt cwe 27 605 26 448 28 317 27 261 28 570 27 425 28 597 27 518 28 636 27 598 28 704 27 623 28 811 27 717 28 968 27 876 29 052 27 970 29 192 28 091 29 350 28 240 kt cwe kt cwe 41 120 38 548 42 546 39 663 41 987 39 384 42 091 39 573 42 459 39 993 42 719 40 205 42 717 40 149 43 004 40 387 43 327 40 663 43 548 40 818 43 620 40 802 kt rtc kt rtc 45 585 42 865 47 402 45 034 47 497 45 079 48 078 45 521 48 612 45 939 49 096 46 280 49 537 46 612 49 994 46 935 50 391 47 249 50 764 47 514 51 018 47 695 kt cwe kt cwe 736 062 693 096 729 133 767 151 797 168 825 186 856 198 889 210 911 223 934 238 964 256 kg rwt 67.1 69.0 68.6 68.8 69.1 69.1 69.1 69.3 69.4 69.5 69.5 Note: Calendar Year: Year ending 30 September for New Zealand Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated Per capita consumption expressed in retail weight Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database) doi: dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 www.ebook3000.com 131 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.5 World dairy projections: Butter and cheese Calendar year BUTTER World Production Consumption Stock changes Price1 Developed countries Production Consumption Developing countries Production Consumption OECD2 Production Consumption Stock changes CHEESE World Production Consumption Stock changes Price3 Developed countries Production Consumption Developing countries Production Consumption OECD2 Production Consumption Stock changes Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 kt pw kt pw kt pw 10 905 10 831 13 11 379 11 379 -3 11 644 11 609 11 902 11 869 12 161 12 131 -3 12 412 12 380 12 662 12 631 -1 12 888 12 857 -2 13 108 13 077 -1 13 348 13 317 -2 13 593 13 561 -1 USD/t 396 925 736 788 852 935 982 063 130 214 248 kt pw kt pw 725 131 877 316 966 356 068 434 155 501 221 547 296 597 350 631 403 659 464 702 526 745 kt pw kt pw 180 700 503 064 678 252 835 435 006 630 191 833 367 033 538 227 705 419 884 615 067 815 kt pw kt pw kt pw 528 930 13 691 156 -3 780 193 881 268 968 332 -3 034 378 107 425 -1 159 456 -2 210 480 -1 270 522 -2 330 564 -1 kt pw kt pw kt pw 22 471 22 273 37 23 139 23 064 -51 23 526 23 401 23 888 23 760 24 240 24 101 14 24 520 24 381 14 24 856 24 714 17 25 197 25 054 17 25 520 25 376 18 25 849 25 711 13 26 193 26 049 19 USD/t 633 644 604 700 775 863 946 038 121 210 276 kt pw kt pw 17 843 16 964 18 410 17 609 18 673 17 805 18 930 18 051 19 184 18 283 19 365 18 451 19 602 18 672 19 854 18 900 20 090 19 109 20 338 19 330 20 600 19 555 kt pw kt pw 628 309 729 455 853 596 958 709 057 818 156 929 254 041 343 155 430 267 512 380 594 494 kt pw kt pw kt pw 17 334 16 593 37 17 896 17 280 -51 18 174 17 471 18 435 17 714 18 691 17 942 14 18 873 18 107 14 19 108 18 324 17 19 354 18 547 17 19 586 18 753 18 19 831 18 970 13 20 092 19 192 19 Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand in OECD aggregate Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated FOB export price, butter, 82% butterfat, Oceania Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries FOB export price, cheddar cheese, 39% moisture, Oceania Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database) doi: dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en 132 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.6 World dairy projections: Powders and casein Calendar year SKIM MILK POWDER World Production Consumption Stock changes Price1 Developed countries Production Consumption Developing countries Production Consumption OECD2 Production Consumption Stock changes WHOLE MILK POWDER World Production Consumption Stock changes Price3 Developed countries Production Consumption Developing countries Production Consumption OECD2 Production Consumption Stock changes WHEY POWDER Wholesale price, United States4 CASEIN Price5 Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 kt pw kt pw kt pw 474 316 16 445 431 396 596 586 711 796 804 917 911 -3 016 009 -1 134 130 -3 240 239 -3 343 344 -4 452 456 -6 USD/t 637 522 554 739 859 977 100 217 307 424 530 kt pw kt pw 878 019 840 066 787 158 959 222 152 258 258 305 341 345 443 398 536 443 625 486 718 532 kt pw kt pw 595 297 604 365 608 438 627 490 644 546 659 606 674 664 691 732 704 795 718 858 734 924 kt pw kt pw kt pw 646 047 16 621 127 575 222 745 290 937 330 043 381 -3 125 425 -1 227 482 -3 320 531 -3 408 578 -4 500 632 -6 kt pw kt pw kt pw 166 238 404 394 497 495 596 595 695 694 816 816 939 939 050 050 162 163 265 266 372 372 USD/t 889 120 066 207 302 417 513 613 696 803 883 kt pw kt pw 387 615 371 608 398 591 431 604 469 618 522 632 568 646 615 660 665 674 716 686 759 694 kt pw kt pw 779 623 033 786 099 904 165 990 226 076 295 184 371 293 434 390 497 489 549 579 612 677 kt pw kt pw kt pw 566 784 554 783 585 771 620 789 660 808 714 827 762 847 811 866 863 885 918 904 964 919 USD/t 981 948 978 031 075 127 157 205 234 279 319 USD/t 404 138 268 669 990 283 588 873 096 390 649 Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand in OECD aggregate Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated FOB export price, non-fat dry milk, 1.25% butterfat, Oceania Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries FOB export price, WMP 26% butterfat, Oceania FOB export price, sweet whey non-hygroscopic, Western Europe Export price, New Zealand Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database) doi: dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 www.ebook3000.com 133 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.7 World fish and seafood projections Calendar year Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 175 969 82 291 176 761 155 821 15 929 178 702 85 171 179 393 159 020 15 664 182 271 88 805 182 863 162 928 15 517 184 953 91 535 185 444 165 910 15 399 185 154 93 864 185 546 167 681 13 998 187 894 94 695 188 186 169 522 15 050 189 614 96 220 189 805 171 436 14 991 191 752 98 332 191 843 173 757 14 892 193 936 100 426 193 927 176 112 14 817 193 875 102 128 193 866 177 367 13 698 FISH1 World Production of which aquaculture Consumption of which for food of which for reduction Price 168 293 76 369 168 212 148 756 14 187 Aquaculture2 USD/t 095.5 109.0 119.1 119.5 100.0 139.4 172.2 204.4 230.2 286.2 312.7 Capture3 USD/t 568.3 564.7 580.6 577.3 577.8 610.6 631.0 655.1 677.2 699.3 724.8 USD/t 837.2 850.0 867.5 826.0 800.0 852.5 896.3 939.2 973.6 008.2 043.0 kt kt kt kt kt 29 154 546 37 148 31 718 494 29 378 748 37 372 32 200 330 29 464 876 37 369 32 306 263 29 614 059 37 286 32 307 218 29 684 228 37 341 32 442 178 29 704 314 37 197 32 326 188 29 682 318 37 497 32 752 099 29 624 317 37 260 32 577 066 29 597 345 37 759 33 132 031 29 616 391 37 721 33 149 999 29 684 471 38 231 33 651 032 kt kt kt kt kt 139 139 71 823 131 064 117 038 692 146 592 77 544 139 389 123 621 11 598 149 238 80 295 142 024 126 714 11 401 152 657 83 746 145 577 130 621 11 299 155 268 86 307 148 103 133 469 11 221 155 450 88 550 148 349 135 355 811 158 213 89 377 150 689 136 770 10 950 159 990 90 903 152 545 138 859 10 925 162 156 92 986 154 084 140 625 10 861 164 320 95 035 156 206 142 963 10 818 164 190 96 657 155 634 143 716 667 kt kt kt kt kt 31 211 299 39 372 32 736 542 31 536 454 39 993 33 330 656 31 696 611 40 099 33 584 561 31 853 837 40 029 33 640 485 31 968 049 40 125 33 833 438 31 699 174 39 822 33 740 275 31 832 188 40 267 34 214 286 31 939 200 40 145 34 110 300 31 981 256 40 717 34 715 288 32 068 325 40 728 34 756 281 31 694 432 41 024 35 307 053 kt kt kt kt 385.2 205.6 457.5 -72.4 942.2 752.9 856.0 85.8 921.4 709.9 929.2 -8.2 932.4 694.9 944.0 -12.1 944.6 686.0 957.2 -13.0 635.5 362.0 811.1 -176.0 933.1 634.4 771.5 161.2 948.1 630.7 958.4 -10.7 957.0 617.8 967.3 -10.7 973.2 610.0 985.2 -12.4 721.4 343.3 877.5 -156.5 USD/t 592.3 280.9 200.3 252.9 291.0 558.6 372.1 412.0 442.0 487.8 834.9 kt kt kt kt 414.8 025.1 618.9 3.6 423.2 024.3 677.8 28.8 427.5 018.6 675.6 2.8 439.8 018.4 619.2 -1.1 448.8 019.0 581.4 -2.0 469.3 032.0 444.4 -47.0 460.7 013.6 437.4 44.2 463.7 008.7 463.5 0.3 467.3 003.3 429.7 0.3 472.8 998.6 402.6 -1.4 493.4 010.1 299.1 -47.5 kt kt kt kt 970.4 180.5 838.7 -76.0 518.9 728.6 178.3 57.0 493.9 691.4 253.6 -11.0 492.6 676.5 324.8 -11.0 495.9 667.0 375.8 -11.0 166.2 330.0 366.7 -129.0 472.3 620.7 334.1 117.0 484.4 622.1 495.0 -11.0 489.7 614.5 537.5 -11.0 500.4 611.4 582.6 -11.0 228.0 333.2 578.4 -109.0 kt kt kt kt 604.4 210.6 810.5 -9.0 687.2 282.0 864.0 62.8 685.6 270.4 862.9 1.8 691.5 263.6 815.1 -2.1 699.4 263.0 780.2 -3.0 681.2 237.1 635.0 -68.0 695.6 241.5 633.7 63.2 709.7 247.4 669.6 -0.7 718.8 247.5 638.7 -0.7 730.6 248.9 615.6 -2.4 692.0 201.0 501.5 -53.5 Product traded4 Developed countries Production of which aquaculture Consumption of which for food of which for reduction Developing countries Production of which aquaculture Consumption of which for food of which for reduction OECD Production of which aquaculture Consumption of which for food of which for reduction FISHMEAL5 World Production from whole fish Consumption Variation in stocks Price6 Developed countries Production from whole fish Consumption Variation in stocks Developing countries Production from whole fish Consumption Variation in stocks OECD Production from whole fish Consumption Variation in stocks 134 kt kt kt kt kt OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.7 World fish and seafood projections (cont.) Calendar year Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 881.2 566.8 905.1 -23.9 968.1 645.0 894.4 73.7 962.2 634.0 963.9 -1.7 962.3 628.5 964.0 -1.6 962.8 623.8 964.4 -1.6 909.0 565.0 961.6 -52.6 959.2 609.9 912.7 46.4 962.3 607.7 961.8 0.5 964.0 603.9 963.5 0.5 966.9 601.1 966.4 0.5 925.6 554.0 976.1 -50.5 808.3 607.9 622.9 641.3 667.2 907.2 720.2 747.0 774.4 794.8 055.8 kt kt kt kt 394.2 206.1 534.6 -4.7 354.3 171.9 502.0 28.7 354.2 169.4 529.8 0.3 356.0 168.3 526.6 0.4 357.1 167.1 524.8 0.4 360.0 167.9 540.1 -25.6 359.3 164.8 482.2 21.4 360.6 163.9 515.2 0.5 362.0 163.0 511.8 0.5 363.7 162.1 510.2 0.5 367.8 163.8 536.9 -25.5 kt kt kt kt 487.0 360.7 370.5 -19.2 613.9 473.1 392.4 45.0 608.0 464.6 434.1 -2.0 606.3 460.2 437.4 -2.0 605.7 456.7 439.6 -2.0 549.0 397.1 421.5 -27.0 599.9 445.0 430.5 25.0 601.7 443.8 446.7 0.0 602.0 440.9 451.7 0.0 603.2 438.9 456.3 0.0 557.8 390.2 439.2 -25.0 kt kt kt kt 513.6 274.4 682.9 -8.0 469.2 238.0 640.8 43.7 468.4 234.0 673.2 0.3 469.1 230.8 670.5 0.4 470.5 228.8 669.2 0.4 466.8 221.9 671.7 -35.6 470.6 222.4 621.1 31.4 474.4 222.9 660.9 0.5 477.3 222.4 658.4 0.5 480.7 222.1 657.2 0.5 474.7 212.6 669.7 -35.5 OIL5 FISH World Production from whole fish Consumption Variation in stocks Price7 Developed countries Production from whole fish Consumption Variation in stocks Developing countries Production from whole fish Consumption Variation in stocks OECD Production from whole fish Consumption Variation in stocks kt kt kt kt USD/t Note: The term “fish” indicates fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic animals, but excludes aquatic mammals, crocodiles, caimans, alligators and aquatic plants Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated Data are in live weight equivalent World unit value of aquaculture fisheries production (live weight basis) FAO estimated value of world ex vessel value of capture fisheries production excluding for reduction World unit value of trade (sum of exports and imports) Data are in product weight Fishmeal, 64-65% protein, Hamburg, Germany Fish oil, any origin, N.W Europe Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database) doi: dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 www.ebook3000.com 135 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.8 World biofuel projections ETHANOL World Production of which maize based of which sugar cane based of which advanced1 Consumption of which fuel use Exports Price2 Developed countries Production Consumption of which fuel use Net trade Developing countries Production Consumption of which fuel use Net trade OECD3 Production Consumption of which fuel use Net trade BIODIESEL World Production of which vegetable oil based of which waste based of which advanced1 Consumption Exports Price4 Developed countries Production Consumption Net trade Developing countries Production Consumption Net trade OECD3 Production Consumption Net trade mln L mln L mln L Average 2014-16est 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 117.4 68.2 27.9 123.7 71.9 29.5 126.8 73.7 30.2 128.4 73.9 31.1 130.7 74.7 31.9 131.5 74.5 32.5 132.8 74.5 33.3 133.7 74.3 33.7 134.7 74.2 34.3 135.8 74.0 34.9 136.7 73.7 35.5 mln L 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 mln L mln L mln L 117.2 96.2 8.2 124.6 103.1 8.9 127.0 105.4 9.0 128.8 107.0 8.9 130.8 108.9 8.9 131.8 109.6 8.8 133.0 110.7 8.7 134.0 111.4 8.5 134.9 112.1 8.2 136.0 113.0 8.1 136.9 113.6 7.9 USD/hl 51.0 44.5 46.0 47.3 48.4 49.7 50.9 51.9 53.2 54.5 55.3 mln L mln L mln L mln L 68.1 67.7 62.0 0.2 71.7 72.7 66.7 -0.5 73.2 74.0 67.9 -0.8 73.2 74.4 68.3 -0.9 74.0 74.9 68.8 -0.9 73.6 74.7 68.7 -1.0 73.6 74.8 68.7 -1.1 73.3 74.5 68.4 -1.0 73.2 74.3 68.1 -1.0 73.0 74.1 68.0 -1.0 72.7 73.8 67.6 -1.0 mln L mln L mln L mln L 49.4 49.5 34.2 -0.2 51.9 51.9 36.4 0.5 53.6 53.1 37.5 0.8 55.2 54.4 38.7 0.8 56.7 56.0 40.0 0.9 57.9 57.1 41.0 0.9 59.3 58.3 42.0 1.1 60.4 59.5 43.0 1.0 61.5 60.7 44.0 1.0 62.8 61.9 45.0 1.0 64.0 63.1 46.0 0.9 mln L mln L mln L mln L 67.2 67.9 62.0 -0.8 70.8 72.8 66.7 -1.5 72.3 74.1 68.0 -1.8 72.3 74.5 68.4 -1.9 73.0 75.0 68.8 -1.9 72.6 74.8 68.7 -2.0 72.6 74.9 68.7 -2.1 72.4 74.6 68.4 -2.1 72.2 74.4 68.1 -2.0 72.0 74.2 68.0 -2.0 71.7 73.9 67.6 -2.0 mln L mln L mln L 33.8 24.3 8.2 37.3 27.6 9.0 38.6 28.4 9.4 39.6 29.0 9.8 40.3 29.2 10.2 40.2 29.0 10.2 40.1 28.8 10.3 40.2 28.8 10.4 40.4 28.8 10.4 40.4 28.8 10.5 40.5 28.8 10.5 mln L 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 mln L mln L 33.8 3.5 37.5 3.8 38.8 4.3 39.7 4.2 40.4 3.8 40.3 3.6 40.2 3.3 40.4 3.2 40.5 3.1 40.6 3.1 40.6 3.1 USD/hl 86.9 86.1 88.0 89.4 90.4 90.9 91.3 92.1 92.7 93.2 93.6 mln L mln L mln L 20.4 22.4 -2.2 21.7 24.3 -2.6 22.2 25.3 -3.0 22.4 25.4 -2.9 22.3 24.8 -2.5 22.1 24.4 -2.3 21.9 24.0 -2.0 21.8 23.7 -1.9 21.7 23.5 -1.8 21.2 23.0 -1.8 20.9 22.6 -1.8 mln L mln L mln L 13.4 11.3 2.1 15.6 13.2 2.5 16.4 13.5 2.9 17.2 14.3 2.8 18.0 15.6 2.4 18.1 15.9 2.2 18.2 16.3 1.9 18.4 16.6 1.8 18.7 17.0 1.7 19.2 17.5 1.7 19.6 18.0 1.6 mln L mln L mln L 21.0 22.9 -2.1 22.4 24.9 -2.5 23.0 25.9 -3.0 23.2 26.0 -2.9 23.0 25.5 -2.5 22.8 25.1 -2.3 22.7 24.7 -2.0 22.6 24.4 -1.8 22.4 24.1 -1.8 21.9 23.7 -1.7 21.6 23.3 -1.7 Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated Advanced biofuels corresponding to biofuels produced out of agricultural residues, forest residues and dedicated energy crops Wholesale price, United states, Omaha Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries Producer price Germany net of biodiesel tariff and energy tax Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database) doi: dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en 136 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.9 World cotton projections Marketing year Average 2014-16est WORLD Production Area Yield Consumption1 Exports Closing stocks Price2 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Production Consumption Exports Imports Closing stocks DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Production Consumption Exports Imports Closing stocks OECD3 Production Consumption Exports Imports Closing stocks 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mt Mha t/ha 23.4 31.7 0.74 22.7 30.2 0.75 22.6 29.7 0.76 22.7 29.5 0.77 23.2 29.5 0.79 23.7 29.6 0.80 24.2 29.7 0.81 24.7 29.8 0.83 25.2 29.9 0.84 25.6 29.9 0.86 26.1 30.0 0.87 Mt 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.6 26.0 Mt Mt 7.6 19.8 7.8 16.5 7.8 14.9 7.9 13.3 7.9 12.1 8.0 11.4 8.0 10.9 8.1 10.4 8.2 10.2 8.4 10.1 8.5 10.0 582.8 480.7 467.2 442.1 460.5 546.7 568.2 572.3 572.5 573.3 576.0 Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 5.6 1.7 4.1 0.4 1.8 6.0 1.8 4.6 0.4 2.1 5.9 1.8 4.6 0.4 2.0 5.9 1.8 4.6 0.4 1.8 6.0 1.8 4.6 0.4 1.7 6.0 1.8 4.6 0.4 1.7 6.1 1.9 4.6 0.4 1.7 6.2 1.9 4.7 0.4 1.7 6.3 2.0 4.7 0.4 1.7 6.4 2.0 4.7 0.4 1.7 6.5 2.0 4.8 0.4 1.7 Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 17.7 22.3 3.5 7.0 18.0 16.7 22.2 3.2 7.3 14.4 16.7 22.2 3.2 7.3 12.9 16.8 22.3 3.2 7.3 11.5 17.2 22.3 3.3 7.4 10.4 17.6 22.3 3.4 7.4 9.8 18.1 22.7 3.4 7.5 9.2 18.5 23.0 3.5 7.6 8.7 18.9 23.3 3.5 7.7 8.5 19.3 23.6 3.6 7.8 8.3 19.7 23.9 3.7 7.9 8.3 Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 5.2 3.3 3.3 1.7 2.5 5.5 3.3 3.9 1.7 2.8 5.4 3.3 4.0 1.7 2.6 5.4 3.3 4.0 1.7 2.5 5.5 3.3 4.0 1.7 2.4 5.6 3.3 4.0 1.7 2.3 5.6 3.3 3.9 1.6 2.3 5.7 3.3 4.0 1.6 2.3 5.8 3.4 4.0 1.6 2.4 5.9 3.4 4.1 1.6 2.4 5.9 3.4 4.1 1.6 2.4 USD/t Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated Consumption for cotton means mill consumption and not final consumer demand Cotlook A index, Middling 3/32", c.f.r far Eastern ports (August/July) Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database) doi: dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017-2026 © OECD/FAO 2017 www.ebook3000.com 137 OECD PUBLISHING, 2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16 (51 2017 05 P) ISBN 978-92-64-27547-8 – 2017 www.ebook3000.com OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017‑2026 The thirteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish The 2017 report contains a special feature on the prospects for, and challenges facing, Southeast Asia Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than trade in other sectors These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities More detailed commodity chapters are available on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2017-en The projections and past trends presented in the statistical annex can be viewed in more detail at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-data-en Supplementary information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2017-en This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information isbn 978-92-64-27547-8 51 2017 05 P ... are required 16 OECD- FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017- 2026 © OECD/ FAO 2017 OECD- FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017- 2026 © OECD/ FAO 2017 Chapter Overview of the Agricultural Outlook 2017- 2026 This chapter... African rand OECD- FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2017- 2026 © OECD/ FAO 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary T he Agricultural Outlook 2017- 26 is a collaborative effort of the OECD and FAO prepared... the practice of the FAO Please cite this publication as: OECD/ FAO (2017) , OECD- FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017- 2026, OECD Publishing, Paris http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr _outlook- 2017- en ISBN 978-92-64-27547-8