Unified Growth Theory Unified Growth Theory Oded Galor PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS | PRINCETON & OXFORD © 2011 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW press.princeton.edu Jacket illustration: Time Goes By, 2007, GIMP-created image, © Manuel Lao All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Galor, Oded, date Unified growth theory / Oded Galor p cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 978-0-691-13002-6 (hardback : alk paper) Economic development Technological innovations—Economic aspects I Title HD75.G348 2011 338.9001—dc22 2010043076 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available This book was composed in Times New Roman and Bell Gothic using ZzTEX by Princeton Editorial Associates, Inc., Scottsdale, Arizona Printed on acid-free paper Printed in the United States of America 10 Dedicated to the members of two generations of my family who have profoundly affected my life—my sons Alon, Yuval, and Omri, and my parents Sarah and Joseph Contents Preface CHAPTER Introduction 1.1 Toward a Unified Theory of Economic Growth 1.2 Origins of Global Disparity in Living Standards 1.2.1 Catalysts for the Engine of Transition from Stagnation to Growth 1.2.2 Persistence of Prehistorical Biogeographical Conditions 1.2.3 Convergence Clubs CHAPTER From Stagnation to Growth 2.1 The Malthusian Epoch 2.1.1 Stagnation of Income per Capita in the Long Run 2.1.2 Population Dynamism 2.1.3 Fertility and Mortality 2.1.4 Fluctuations in Income and Population 2.1.5 Technological Progress 2.1.6 Main Characteristics of the Epoch 2.2 The Post-Malthusian Regime 2.2.1 Take-off in Income per Capita 2.2.2 Spike in Population Growth 2.2.3 Fertility and Mortality 2.2.4 Industrialization and Urbanization 2.2.5 Globalization and the Pace of Industrialization 2.2.6 Central Features of the Regime 2.3 Industrialization and Human Capital Formation 2.3.1 Industrial Demand for Education 2.3.2 Land Concentration and Human Capital Formation 2.3.3 Land Reforms and Education Reforms 2.3.4 Political and Education Reforms 2.3.5 Human Capital Formation in Less Developed Economies 2.3.6 Main Insights 2.4 The Demographic Transition 2.4.1 Decline in Population Growth 2.4.2 Fertility Decline 2.4.3 Mortality Decline 2.4.4 Life Expectancy 2.4.5 Central Characteristics 2.5 The Modern Growth Regime 2.5.1 Rapid Industrialization and Human Capital Formation 2.5.2 Sustained Growth of Income per Capita 2.5.3 Divergence in Income and Population across the Globe 2.5.4 Insights for Comparative Development 2.6 Concluding Remarks CHAPTER The Malthusian Theory 3.1 The Basic Structure of the Model 3.1.1 Production 3.1.2 Preferences and Budget Constraints 3.1.3 Optimization 3.2 The Evolution of the Economy 3.2.1 Population Dynamics 3.2.2 The Time Path of Income per Worker 3.3 Testable Predictions 3.4 Empirical Framework 3.4.1 Empirical Strategy 3.4.2 The Data 3.4.3 The Neolithic Revolution and Technological Advancement 3.4.4 Basic Regression Model 3.5 Cross-Country Evidence 3.5.1 Population Density in 1500 CE 3.5.2 Population Density in Earlier Historical Periods 3.5.3 Income per Capita versus Population Density 3.5.4 Effect of Technological Sophistication 3.5.5 Robustness to Technology Diffusion and Geographical Features 3.5.6 Rejection of Alternative Theories 3.6 Concluding Remarks 3.7 Appendix 3.7.1 First-Stage Regressions 3.7.2 Variable Definitions and Sources CHAPTER Theories of the Demographic Transition 4.1 The Rise in Income per Capita 4.1.1 The Theory and Its Testable Predictions 4.1.2 The Evidence 4.2 The Decline in Infant and Child Mortality 4.2.1 The Central Hypothesis 4.2.2 Evidence 4.3 The Rise in Demand for Human Capital 4.3.1 The Theory 4.3.2 Evidence: Education and the Demographic Transition 4.3.3 Quantity-Quality Trade-off in the Modern Era 4.4 The Rise in Demand for Human Capital: Reinforcing Mechanisms 4.4.1 The Decline in Child Labor 4.4.2 The Rise in Life Expectancy 4.4.3 Evolution of Preferences for Offspring Quality 4.5 The Decline in the Gender Gap 4.5.1 The Theory and Its Testable Predictions 4.5.2 The Evidence 4.6 The Old-Age Security Hypothesis 4.7 Concluding Remarks 4.8 Appendix 4.8.1 Optimal Investment in Child Quality 4.8.2 Optimal Investment in Child Quantity CHAPTER Unified Growth Theory 5.1 The Fundamental Challenge 5.2 Incompatibility of Non-Unified Growth Theories 5.2.1 The Malthusian Theory 5.2.2 Theories of Modern Economic Growth 5.3 Central Building Blocks 5.3.1 The Malthusian Elements 5.3.2 Engines of Technological Progress 5.3.3 The Origin of Human Capital Formation 5.3.4 The Trigger of the Demographic Transition 5.4 The Basic Structure of the Model 5.4.1 Production of Final Output 5.4.2 Preferences and Budget Constraints 5.4.3 Production of Human Capital 5.4.4 Optimization 5.5 Evolution of Technology, Population, and Effective Resources 5.5.1 Technological Progress 5.5.2 Population 5.5.3 Effective Resources 5.6 The Dynamical System 5.6.1 The Dynamics of Technology and Education 5.6.2 Global Dynamics 5.7 From Malthusian Stagnation to Sustained Growth 5.8 Main Hypotheses 5.9 Complementary Mechanisms 5.9.1 Sources of Human Capital Formation 5.9.2 Triggers of the Demographic Transition 5.9.3 Engines of Technological Progress 5.9.4 The Transition from an Agricultural to an Industrial Economy 5.10 Calibrations of Unified Growth Theory 5.11 Concluding Remarks 5.12 Appendix: Optimal Investment in Child Quality CHAPTER Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development 6.1 Country-Specific Characteristics and the Growth Process 6.1.1 Factors Contributing to Technological Progress 6.1.2 Reinforcing Elements in Human Capital Formation 6.1.3 The Dynamics of Technology and Education 6.2 Variation in Technological Progress and Comparative Development 6.3 Variation in Human Capital and Comparative Development 6.3.1 The Emergence of Human Capital–Promoting Institutions 6.3.2 Globalization and Divergence 6.4 Persistence of Deeply Rooted Biogeographical Factors 6.4.1 The Neolithic Revolution and Comparative Development 6.4.2 The Out-of-Africa Hypothesis and Comparative Development 6.5 Multiple Growth Regimes and Convergence Clubs 6.6 Concluding Remarks CHAPTER Human Evolution and the Process of Development 7.1 Natural Selection and the Origins of Economic Growth 7.2 Primary Ingredients 7.2.1 The Darwinian Elements 7.2.2 The Malthusian Components 7.2.3 Determinants of Technological Progress and Human Capital Formation 7.2.4 The Trigger of the Demographic Transition 7.3 The Basic Structure of the Model 7.3.1 Production of Final Output 7.3.2 Preferences and Budget Constraints 7.3.3 Production of Human Capital 7.3.4 Optimization 7.3.5 Distribution of Types and Human Capital Formation 7.3.6 Time Path of the Macroeconomic Variables 7.4 The Dynamical System 7.4.1 Conditional Dynamics of Technology and Education 7.4.2 Conditional Dynamics of Technology and Effective Resources 7.4.3 Conditional Steady-State Equilibria 7.4.4 Human Evolution and the Transition from Stagnation to Growth 7.5 Failed Take-off Attempts 7.6 Main Hypotheses and Their Empirical Assessment 7.7 Complementary Mechanisms 7.7.1 Evolution of Entrepreneurial Spirit and Economic Growth 7.7.2 Evolution of Life Expectancy and Economic Growth 7.8 Concluding Remarks 7.9 Appendix 7.9.1 Conditional Dynamics of Technology and Education 7.9.2 Conditional Dynamics of Technology and Effective Resources CHAPTER Concluding Remarks References Name Index Subject Index Yoong-Deok, J., and Kim, Y (2000) Land Reform, Income Redistribution, and Agricultural Production in Korea, Economic Development and Cultural Change 48(2): 253–268 Young, A (1991) Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade, Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(2): 369–405 ———.(1998) Growth without Scale Effects, Journal of Political Economy 106(1): 41–63 ——— (2005) The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations, Quarterly Journal of Economics 120(2): 423–466 Zeira, J (1998) Workers, Machines, and Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics 113(4): 1091–1117 Name Index Abramovitz, M., 37, 56 Acemoglu, D., 28, 172, 180, 180n2, 184, 184n10, 186, 195, 201n26 Aghion, P., 145, 184, 201n26, 271n40 Alesina, A., 181, 186, 218n36 Alger, I., 233n2 Allen, R C., 169 Andersen, T B., 186n15 Anderson, R D., 35–36 Angeletos, G.-M., 186 Angrist, J D., 129–30 Artzrouni, M., 144n2 Ashraf, Q., 8, 68, 74, 90- 94, 103, 110, 141n, 181, 184, 211–12, 217, 219n37, 224, 226 Azariadis, C., 227n43 Bairoch, P., 15, 26–7, 275 Baldwin, R E., 201n25 Banerjee, A V., 180n4, 184, 186, 197n20 Bar, M., 172, 177n36 Barro, R J., 45, 146n5, 181 Baten, J., 59, 268 Becker, G S., 116–18, 124, 127n17, 146n5 Becker S O., 128–29, 132, 186n14, 238n15 Benabou, R., 186 Ben-Zion, U., 146n5 Berdugo, B., 131, 171–72, 184n12 Bernhardt, D., 184 Bertocchi, G., 173, 180n4 Bisin, A., 233n3 Black, S E., 129–30 Bleakley, H., 129 Bloom, D E., 227n43 Bloom, N., 184 Blundell, R., 184 Boldrin, M., 136n29 Bonilla, F., 39 Boserup, E., 16, 68, 147n7 Botticini, M., 132, 186n14 Boucekkine, R., 171, 216n35, 268 Bourguignon, F., 59, 186 Bowles, S., 37n21, 171n31, 233n2 Boyd, R., 233n3 Boyer, G R., 268n35 Brezis, E S., 180n5, 184n10 Broadberry, S., 141n1 Caldwell, J C., 136n29 Cameron, R., 33n18 Cann, H M., 222n39 Canning, D., 227n44 Canova, F., 180n4 Caselli, F., 58n31, 198n21 Cavalli-Sforza, L L., 222n39, 233n3 Cervellati, M., 171–72, 216n35 Chakraborty, S., 171 Chandler, T., 103, 110 Chaudhuri, K N., 59n32 Chen, C., 41, Chen, D., 146n5 Cinnirella, F., 128–29, 132, 238n15 Cipolla, C M., 34, 134, 268–69 Clark, G., 12, 13n3, 31n13, 56, 267 Cloninger, R C., 272n41 Coale, A J., 23, 49 Coatsworth, J H., 38 Cobbett, William, 23n8 Cody, M L., 236n10 Cohen, M., 212n33, 273n42 Coleman, J S., 58n31, 198n21 Comin, D., 78, 113, 212 Copernicus, Crafts, N., 28, 31, 55, 68n3, 142, 169 Cramer, J., 270n40 Cressy, D., 268n38 Cubberley, E.P., 35–36 Dahan, M., 146n5 Dalgaard, C.-J., 147n6, 186n15, 237n11 Darwin, Charles, 179, 232, 235–36 David, P A., 37, 56 Dawkins, Richard, 115, 236 Day, T., 213, 277n49 Deininger, K., 38 de Janvry, A., 271n40 de la Croix, D., 171–72, 216n35, 268 Dell, M., 180n2 Desmet, K., 172 De Vries, J., 15, 27, 275 Diamond, J., 7, 75, 84, 91, 99, 109, 179, 208–9, 212 Ding, Y C., 273 Dinopoulos, E., 145n3 Diwan, I., 183n7 Doepke, M., 123, 131, 141n1, 170–73, 177, 271n39 Dohmen, T., 272 Dowrick, S., 59n33 Drazen, A., 227n43 Duflo, E., 186 Durante, R., 208n30 Durham, W H., 213, 232 Durlauf, S N., 170, 186, 227n43, 228n44 Dyson, T., 23 Easterlin, R., 237n12 Easterly, W., 78, 113, 180n3, 181, 212 Eckert, C., 40 Eckstein, Z., 123n13, 132, 186 Ehrlich, I., 171 Eicher, T S., 186 Einstein, Albert, xv Endler, J., 233n1 Engerman, S L., 37n21, 38, 180, 195 Estevadeordal, A., 28 Feinerman, E., 272 Feldman, M W., 233n3 Fernández, R., 171, 181, 186 Fernández-Villaverde, J., 118, 123, 170, 177 Feyrer, J D., 58n31, 227n43 Fiaschi, D., 227n43 Field, A., 37n21 Findlay, R., 28, 201n25 Finkelshtain, I., 272 Flora, P., 32, 34, 36, 44, 128 Fogel, R W., 216n35 Fogli, A., 181, 186, Forster, W E., 33 Foster, A D., 148n9, 237n12 Frank, A G., 58n33 Frankel, J A., 203n28 Friedman, B M., 178n37 Galiani, S., 38n23, 194n18 Gallup, J L., 179, 186n15 Galor, O., 5n3, 8, 27n10, 38, 68, 68n2, 70n5, 74, 84, 90n22, 91, 93–94, 103, 104, 105n27, 110, 121n9, 124, 130–33, 132n26, 133, 140, 141n1, 143, 148n9, 161n22, 170–74, 177, 180–81, 184, 184n9, 186, 194–95, 195n19, 197–99, 201n27, 203, 205, 207, 210– 11, 210n32, 215, 216n35, 217, 219n37, 222n41, 224, 226, 227n43, 233, 270, 273–74, 273n42, 276–77, 277n49 Garcia-Peñalosa, C., 186 Gerber, J., 198n21 Gershman, B., 184n11 Gintis, H., 37n21 Glaeser, E L., 180–181 Goldin, C., 37, 56, 135n27, 170–71, 198 Gollin, D., 173 Goodfriend, M., 144 Goody, J., 59n32 Gradstein, M., 186 Grant, B R., 233n1 Grant, P R., 233n1 Green, A., 32–36 Greenwood, J., 133n26, 171, 183n8 Greif, A., 180, 180n2 Griffith, R., 184 Grossman, G M., 145, 184, 201n25 Gubbins, J H., 39–40 Guiso, L., 181 Guzman, M., 172n32 Gylfason, T., 184n12 Hall, R E., 180 Hamilton, G., 13n3, 267 Hansen, G D., 74, 141n1, 172–77 Hanushek, E A., 129, 186 Harley, K C., 142, 169 Hassler, J., 148n9 Hausmann, R., 184 Hawking, S W., Hayami, Y., 39 Hazan, M., 131, 171–72 Heckman, J J., 135n28 Helpman, E., 145, 180, 183–84, 201n25 Hendricks, L., 148n8, 185n13 Hercowitz, Z., 183n8, Herzer, D., 127 Hibbs, D A., Jr., 85, 112, 209n31, 212n32 Hindle, S., 136 Hobson, J M., 59n32 Holliday, R., 276 Horrell, S., 131n21 Howitt, P., 145, 145n3, 184, 271n40 Hsieh, C.-T., 58n31 Humphries, J., 131n21 Hurt, J., 34 Iyer, L., 180n4, 197n20 Iyigun, M., 184n9 Johnson, P A., 170, 227n43, 228n44 Johnson, S., 28, 172, 180, 184 Johnson, W., 40 Jones, C I., 59n33, 141n1, 145n3, 170, 180 Jones, E L., 179, 180n1, 184 Jones, L E., 133n26, 136n29 Jones, R., 77, 77n12, 112 Justman, M., 186 Kalaitzidakis, P., 227n43 Kalemli-Ozcan, S., 120n8, 172 Kaplan, H S., 278n51 Katz, L F., 37, 56, 170–71 Keefer, P., 180–81 Keller, W., 180n2, 201n26 Kelly, M., 68n3 Kettlewell, B., 233n1 Kierzkowski, H., 201n25 Kim, Y., 41 Kirkwood, T., 274n43, 276, 277n49 Kitson, James, 33 Klasing, M., 172 Klemp, M B., 128 Klenow, P J., 58n31 Knack, S., 180–81 Kohler, H.-P., 236n9, 272 Komlos, J., 144n2 Köse, S., 272n41 Kremer, M., 16, 68n2, 74, 144, 146n5, 147n7 Krugman, P., 180n5, 201n25 Krusell, P., 183n9, 183n8 Kuhn, T S., Kurian, G., 37 Kuznets, S., 28–29 Lack, D., 236, 276n48 La Ferrara, E., 218n36 La Porta, R., 181 Lagerlöf, N.-P., 68n3, 135n27, 141n1, 172, 174, 216n35 Landes, D S., 30, 59, 181 Lange, F., 129 Lavezzi, A M., 227n43 Lee, J W., 45 Lee, R D., 13n3, 267n35 Leukhina, O., 172, 177n36 Levine, R., 180n3, 181, 184 Lewis, H G., 116, 124, 127n17 Li, H., 129 Licandro, O., 171–172 Lin, C J., 42 Livi-Bacci, M., 15, 77n12, 275 Livingstone, F B., 213, 232 Lloyd-Ellis, H., 184 Lopez-de-Silanes, F., 181 Lorentzen, P., 171 Lucas, R E., Jr., 74, 141n1, 145, 172 Lui, F T., 171 MacArthur, R H., 236 Macaulay, V., 222n40 Mamuneas, T P., 227n43 Martin, P., 201n25 McCleary, R M., 181 McClelland, C., 36 McDermott, J., 144, 146n5, 172 McEvedy, C., 77, 77n12, 112 Maddison, A., 2, 11, 13, 19–22, 38, 42, 48, 54, 57–59, 63n35, 77, 94, 110, 119, 127, 198n23 Maimonides, 191 Malthus, T., 12, 67, 147 Mankiw, N G., 145 Manuelli, R E., 146n5 Matsuyama, K., 201n25 Matthews, R., 55–56 Mayer-Foulkes, D., 184 Medawar, P B., 276 Mekel-Bobrov, N., 233 Michalopoulos, S., 78, 110, 172, 180n2, 208n30, 270 Milanovic, B., 59, 61n34 Milionis, P., 172 Mills, T C., 68n3 Mitch, D F., 31–32 Miyata, S., 272 Moav, O., 5n3, 124, 130–32, 140, 143, 170–72, 186, 195, 212, 215, 233, 275–78 Modelski, G., 103, 110 Mokyr, J., 29, 31, 172, 180, 183, 237n12 Mookherjee, D., 186 Mora, J.V.R., 148n9, Morrisson, C., 59 Moscardi, E., 271n40 Mountford, A., 5n3, 27n10, 105n27, 140, 170, 172–74, 199, 201n27, 203–7 Mourmouras, A., 173 Murphy, M., 23 Murphy, T E., 118, 123, 128, 135 Murtin, F., 118, 128 Neher, P A., 136n29 Nelson, R R., 148, 148n9, 237nn12, 13 Newman, A., 184 Ngai, R L., 173 Nguyen, D-T., 59n33 North, D C., 180, 181n6 Nugent, J., 38 Nunn, N., 14n4, 180n2 Ofek, H., 233n2 O’Grada, C., 68n3 Olivetti, C., 171, 199 Olson, M., 184n10 Olsson, O., 85, 112, 209n31, 212n32 Oppenheimer, S., 222n39 O’Rourke, K H., 28, 29n11, 141n1, 172, 201n25 Ottaviano, G.I.P., 201n25 Owen, A L., 227n43 Papaioannou, E., 180n2 Parente, S L., 172, 184n10 Pelling, M., 136 Peregrine, P N., 75n10, 78, 96, 99, 113 Peretto, P F., 145n3 Persson, T., 180n2, 184n10 Phelps, E S., 148, 148n9, 237nn12, 13 Piketty, T., 61n34 Pomeranz, K., 29n12, 59n32, 179 Prescott, E C., 74, 141n1, 172–77, 184n10 Pritchett, L., 59n33, 170 Prugnolle, F., 222n41 Putterman, L., 78, 113–14, 212n32, 215n34 Qian, N., 14n4 Quah, D T., 59n33, 170, 227n43 Rahman, A S., 141n1 Ramachandran, S., 222–24 Ramankutty, N., 77, 110 Rangazas, P., 173 Ray, D., 186 Razin, A., 146n5 Reznick, D N., 213, 276n47 Richerson, P J., 233n3 Ringer, F., 34 Rios-Rull, J.-V., 184n10 Robinson, J A., 28, 38, 172, 180, 186 Robson, A J., 233n2, 278n51 Rodgers, J L., 236n9, 272 Rodriguez-Clare, A., 58n31 Rodrik, D., 180n3, 183n7, 184 Rogerson, R., 186 Romer, P., 145 Romer D , 145n3, 203n28 Rosenzweig, M R., 129, 148n9, 237n12 Ryder, H E., 227n43 Sachs, J D., 179, 186n15 Saez, E., 61n34 Sah-Myung, H., 41 Saint-Paul, G., 233n2 Sala-i-Martin, X., 61n34 Sanderson, M., 32 Sapienza, P., 180 Savvides, A., 227n43 Schofield, R., 13n3, 15–16, 24–25, 53, 128, 269, 275 Schultz, T P., 123n13, 135 Schultz, T W., 148, 237n13 Schumpeter, J A., 270n40 Segerstrom, P S., 145n3 Seshadri, A., 133n26, 146n5, 171, Sheshinski, E., 131n23 Shiue, C H., 180n2 Shleifer, A., 180–181 Simon, B., 32 Smith, Adam, 10n1, 140 Smith, R M., 136 Snowdon, Brian, xvii Soares, R R., 171 Sokoloff, K L., 37n21, 38, 180, 195 Solow, R., 145 Spolaore, E., 201n26, 208n30 Squire, L., 38 Stengos, T., 227n43 Stokey, N L., 29n11, 201n25 Strulik, H., 127, 141n1, 147n6, 172, 237n11 Subramamian, A., 180n3 Sunde, U., 171–72, 216n35 Sussman, N., 180n2, 184n12 Tabellini, G., 180n2, 181, 184n10 Tamura, R., 171–72 Taylor, A., 28, 141n1 Temin, P., 184n10 Temple, J., 227n43 Tertilt, M., 133n26, 171 Thomas, M., 28 Thompson, P., 145n3 Tirole, J., 186 Trajtenberg, M., 183 Treadway, R., 23, 49 Trebbi, F., 180n3 Tsiddon, D., 146n5, 148n9, 180n5 Vandenbroucke, G., 133n26 van Praag, C., 271n40 van Zanden, J L., 268 Vaughan, M., 39 Venables, A J., 201n25 Verdier, T., 186, 233n3 Voight, B F., 232 Voigtländer, N, 16n7, 141n1 Vollmer, S., 127 Vollrath, D., 180, 194–95, 197–98 Voth, H.-J., 16n7, 56, 141n1 Wacziarg, R., 171, 181, 201n26, 208n30 Walker, J R., 135n28 Wang, S., 222n41 Weber, Max, 181, 184 Weibull, J W., 233n2 Weil, D N., 5n3, 74, 124, 133, 140, 143, 170–74, 177, 216n35 Weisdorf, J L., 128, 141n1, 172, 212 Westendorp, R G., 277n49 Wiesenfeld, S L., 213, 232 Williams, G C., 276 Williams, N 275n46 Williams, P D., 213, 277n49 Williamson, J G., 28, 29n11, 172, 201n25 Wilson, E O., 236 Woessmann, L., 128–29, 132, 186, 18614, 238n15 Wolpin, K., 123n12, 129 Wong, R B., 59n32 Wright, D G., 198n22 Wrigley, E A., 13n3, 15–16, 24–25, 53, 128, 275 Yafeh, Y., 180n2 Yared, P., 180n2 Yoong-Deok, J., 41 Yorukoglu, M., 171 Young, A., 131n24, 145n3, 201n25 Zeira, J., 184, 186 Zhang, J., 129–30 Zilcha, I., 186 Zilibotti, F., 131, 171–72, 201n26, 271n39 Zingales, L., 180 Zoabi, H., 131n23, 171–72 Subject Index agriculture, 7–8: evolutionary growth theory and, 232, 267, 171, 273–74; industrialization and, 41–42; Malthusian theory and, 69, 74–92, 96–97, 99–103, 105, 108, 110–14; Unified Growth Theory and, 172–74, 182, 191, 194, 197–98, 208–12, 215, 230 Africa, xvi, 1–2, 8–11, 18–21, 28, 42, 45–46, 48–59, 62, 65, 77, 103, 131, 179–80, 208, 215–18, 221–25, 230, 232, 238 Asia, 2, 8, 11, 18–21, 28–29, 45–46, 48–49, 52–55, 57–59, 62–63, 65, 103, 181, 198n23, 208, 215, 222n40, 224–25, 238n14 AIDS, 131n24 ASPM, 233 Atlas of Cultural Evolution (Peregrine), 78, 113 Balfour Education Act, 34 Bangladesh, 112 Belgium, 25, 33n19, 55 Black Death, 12, 14, 16, 72, 275n45 Canada, 2, 25–26, 29, 38, 55, 222 child labor, 32, 36, 131, 171–72, 177, 186, 230 child mortality, 120–23, 137 child quality: comparative development and, 185, 199n25; demographic transition and, 67, 124, 126–32, 138–39; evolution of preferences for, 132; hookworm disease and, 129; human evolution and, 234–44, 247–48, 261, 267, 279; opportunity cost of raising, 116–17; optimal investment in, 138–39, 178; process of development and, 234–40, 243–44, 247–48, 261, 267, 279; quality-quantity trade-off and, 129–30; rise in income per capita and, 116; Unified Growth Theory and, 150, 151n13, 154, 166, 168, 174n33, 178, 185, 199n24 child quantity: demographic transition and, 116, 127n17, 130, 139; human evolution and, 235–36, 241; optimal investment in, 139; process of development and, 235–36, 241; quantity-quality trade-off and, 129–30 China, 14, 26, 58n32, 61n34, 103, 110, 129, 225 climate: comparative development and, 179, 208–9; Malthusian theory and, 81n17, 85, 103–4, 112; Unified Growth Theory and, 179, 208–9 comparative development: child quality and, 185; climate and, 179, 208–9; competition and, 184; convergence clubs and, 226– 29; country-specific characteristics and, 182–88; credit-market imperfections and, 184; demographic transition and, 181–82, 189, 191, 199–204, 229–30; divergence and, 198–206; education and, 182–91, 194–99, 204–10, 213, 216, 219, 229–30; fertility and, 182, 200–206; genetic diversity and, 217–26; geographical conditions and, 179–80; globalization and, 198–206; growth process and, 182–88; human capital and, 179–206, 209–10, 213–21, 228–30; income per capita and, 179–82, 186, 189, 191, 194, 198–99, 203–4, 207–10, 213, 216, 219, 224–30; inequality and, 64, 179–86, 193–98, 230; intellectual property rights and, 183; interest groups and, 182, 184; international trade and, 199–205; knowledge and, 183; land ownership and, 181, 194–98; Malthusian Epoch and, 182, 228, 232–37, 250, 252, 261–73; Modern Growth Regime and, 182, 220, 226–29, 261, 265; mortality and, 20–23, 205, 213, 216; Neolithic Revolution and, 179, 207–17, 226; OECD countries and, 204–7; out-of-Africa hypothesis and, 217–26; population growth and, 198–200, 228–29; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 182, 269; regression analysis of, 203–7, 222; resources and, 180–84, 194–95, 209, 230; serial founder effect and, 221–24; socio-technological head-start and, 207–10; stagnation and, 179–82, 187–91, 228–31; sustained economic growth and, 179–81, 187, 193, 198–99, 202–3, 210, 213, 221, 228–29; technology and, 180–202, 206–14, 218–21, 225, 228–30; urbanization and, 198; Weberian view and, 181 convergence clubs, 6, 8, 59n33, 142, 170, 179, 181, 226–29, 231, 286 demographic transition, xvi, 288; Beckerian theory and, 116–18, 124, 127–29, 132; child quality and, 67, 124, 126–32, 132, 138– 39; child quantity and, 116, 130, 139; comparative development and, 181–82, 189, 191, 199–204, 229–30; decline in child labor and, 131; decline in gender gap and, 132–35; decline in population growth and, 46–51; education and, 127–30; evidence of, 118; fertility and, 49–55, 115–27; income per capita and, 46, 52–54, 115–24, 127–37; life expectancy and, 52–54, 131; luck and, 124n14; Malthusian Epoch and, 124, 132; mortality and, 51–53, 115, 118, 120–23, 128, 135, 137; old-age security hypothesis and, 136–37; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 118, 121; process of development and, 233–34, 238, 251–52, 263–70; quantityquality trade-off and, 129–30; resources and, 49, 115, 121, 124, 130; rise in demand for human capital and, 123–33; stagnation and, 115, 136–37; sustained economic growth and, 136–37; technology and, 115, 124–27, 131–34; testable predictions and, 116– 17, 120–21, 125–27, 133–35; triggers of, 148–49, 171–72, 238; Unified Growth Theory and, 140, 144–48, 161, 164, 166, 169– 71, 174–78, 181–82, 189, 191, 199–204, 229–30, 238 dopamine receptor D4 (D4DR), 272–73 dynamical systems: CC locus and, 260, 280–84; conditional steady-state equilibrium and, 164; EE locus and, 163; GG locus and, 259–60, 280–81; Malthusian frontier and, 161–62;XX locus and, 158, 161–62 165, 256, 259–60, 263, 280–83 Eastern Europe, 2, 11, 18, 46, 48, 59 economic growth, 289; convergence clubs and, 6, 8, 59n33, 142, 170, 179, 181, 226–29, 231, 286; demographic transition and, 46–54; entrepreneurs and, 36–37, 172, 184, 270–74; escape from Malthusian trap and, 140–41, 144, 166, 180, 228; globalization and, 25, 27–29, 172, 179, 198–206; Great Divergence and, 3, 5n3, 57–59, 141n1, 145, 170, 174, 181; human capital and, 2–7; human evolution and, 232; Industrial Revolution and, 1, 9, 18, 23, 29–36, 55, 58–59, 124, 131, 142, 168–69, 202, 233–234, 237– 238, 263–71; international trade and, 27–29, 84, 170, 174, 199–205; life expectancy and, 274–79; Malthusian Epoch and, 10–17; Modern Growth Regime and, 55–64; natural selection and, 233–35; Neolithic Revolution and, 7, 9, 74–92, 95–104, 109, 114, 179, 207–17, 226, 232, 234, 238, 252, 273–74, 278–79; origins of global disparity in living standards and, 6–8; out-of-Africa hypothesis and, 217–26; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 17–30; poverty and, 228, 270, 287; religion and, 30, 32, 181; risk aversion and, 117n5, 121, 125n15, 150n11, 233n2, 271–72; shocks and, 16n7, 75n8, 81n17, 124n14, 129–30, 142, 159, 165, 228, 235n6, 247, 257, 262, 266, 268n36; spike in, 4, 140, 166, 168; stagnation and, 11–12, 67; standards of living and, 1–2, 4, 6, 9–11, 14, 17–18, 56, 65, 67, 74, 77, 80, 91, 94, 98, 105–7, 109, 147, 167, 176, 179, 215, 285; sustained, 1–10, 20 education, Balfour Education Act and, 34; comparative development and, 182–91, 194–99, 204–10, 213, 216, 219, 229–30; demographic transition and, 127–30; elements contributing to, 187–88; England and, 31–35; evolutionary growth theory and, 254–60, 278–79; gender and, 32, 134–35; Great Exhibition and, 35; industrialization and, 30–37; Japan and, 39–40; learning by doing and, 147; literacy and, 13n3, 31–37, 40, 55, 118, 123, 128, 133–35, 186, 267–69; London Exhibition and, 35; on-the-job training and, 32; Paris Exhibition and, 33; reform in, 31–45, 131, 174, 195, 197; religion and, 30, 32; Royal Commission and, 33; Russia and, 40; Schools Inquiry Commission and, 34; skilled labor and, 30–32, 35, 37n21, 148, 176, 198–99, 202–3; South Korea and, 40–42; Taiwan and, 40–42; Technical Instruction Act and, 34; Unified Growth Theory and, 151–71, 174–78, 182–91, 194– 99, 204–10, 213, 216, 219, 229–30; United States and, 37 Education Act, 34, 43, 168n30 England: comparative development and, 169, 201–2, 229n45; demographic transition and, 118–23, 127–36; education and, 31– 34; industrialization and, 31–34; Malthusian theory and, 68n3, 110; political reform and, 42–43; population growth in, 14n6; stagnation to growth and, 12–17, 23–36, 42–44, 49–56; entrepreneurs, 36–37, 172, 184, 270–72 evolutionary growth theory: basic structure of, 238–54; complementary mechanisms and, 269–278; Darwinian elements of, 235– 36; determinants of technical progress and, 237–38; distribution of types and, 246–49; education and, 254–60, 278–79; entrepreneurial spirit and, 270–73; failed take-off attempts and, 265–66; life expectancy and, 273–78; main hypotheses of, 266– 69; Malthusian Epoch and, 232, 234–35, 237, 250, 252, 257–71, 275, 279; Modern Growth Regime and, 249n27, 261, 265; novelty seeking and, 272–73; preferences and, 240–41; resources and, 259–60; stagnation and, 232–33, 235, 261, 265–66, 270, 278–79; subsistence consumption and, 232, 235n6, 237, 240n19, 241, 243–47, 252n28, 259, 263–64; technology and, 249–60; Unified Growth Theory and, 237–38, 278 famine, 14n4, 67n1, 235n6, 247 fertility, 5, 288; comparative development and, 182, 200–206; decline in, 49–52, 115n1, 115–18, 124, 127, 128n18, 134, 137, 182, 238, 250; demographic transition and, 46, 49–55, 115–37; evolutionary growth theory and, 233–40, 247, 250–53, 256–57, 262–73; household budgets and, 23; human capital formation and, 45–46; human evolution and, 233–40, 247, 250–53, 256–57, 262–73; Malthusian Epoch and, 13n3, 14–15; Malthusian theory and, 67–68; marriage and, 13n3, 23, 240n18; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 23–25; total, 51; Unified Growth Theory and, 146n5, 148–49, 161n23, 168–69, 174n34, 175–78, 182, 200–206 Finland, 49–52, 118–23, 127 France, 169, 268n36; demographic transition and, 118–23, 127–28, 135; Malthusian theory and, 110; stagnation to growth and, 15, 25–29, 32–36, 43–44, 49–52, 55 French Revolution, 35 gender, 118, 123, 128, 132–35, 137 General Measures of Geography (CID), 110, 112 genetics: comparative development and, 217–26; heredity and, 236n9, 240, 269, 277; human evolution and, 232–33, 236, 270–79; life expectancy and, 273–78; migratory distance and, 8, 179, 206, 217–24, 230; out-of-Africa hypothesis and, 217–26 Germany: stagnation to growth and, 49–52, 55; demographic transition and, 118–119, 122, 127–28; industrialization and, 32; Modern Growth Regime and, 55; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 25–29; Unified Growth Theory and, 169 globalization: comparative development and, 198–206; divergence and, 179, 198–206; industrialization and, 25, 27–29; international trade and, 27–29, 84, 170, 172, 174, 199–205; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 25, 27–29 Great Divergence, 3, 5n3, 57–59, 141n1, 145, 170, 174, 181 Great Famine, 14n4 heredity, 236n9, 240, 269, 277 Homo sapiens, 8–10, 206, 217, 230, 233 hookworm disease, 129 human capital, 2–5, 285–87; child labor and, 32, 36, 131, 171, 177, 186, 230; comparative development and, 179–206, 209–10, 213–21, 228–30; demographic transition and, 123–33; determinants of progress in, 237–38; distribution of types and, 246–49; education and, 30–37; effective resources and, 253–54; emergence of promoting institutions for, 193–98; formation of, 30–46, 55–56, 170–71, 185–86, 191–206, 237–38, 246–49; hookworm disease and, 129; industrialization and, 30–46; land ownership and, 37–39, 181, 194–98; less developed countries and, 45; Modern Growth Regime and, 55–56; Neolithic Revolution and, 7, 9, 114, 179, 207–17, 226, 232, 234, 238, 252, 273–74, 278–79; origins of global disparity in living standards and, 6–8; production of, 151–52, 241–42; reinforcing elements in, 130–33, 185–86; religion and, 6–7, 30, 32, 34–35, 132, 179, 181–86, 230; return on, 31; rise in demand for, 123–33, 170–71; skilled labor and, 30–32, 35, 37n21, 148, 199, 203; Unified Growth Theory and, 140–43, 146–52, 154n18, 157, 166, 168–205, 209–10, 213–21, 228–30; variation in, 191–206 human evolution, xvi, 4–5; child quality and, 234–44, 238n15, 247–48, 261, 267, 279; child quantity and, 235–36, 241; Darwin and, 235–36; fertility and, 233–40, 247, 250–53, 256–57, 262–69, 72; genetic diversity and, 232–33, 236; heredity and, 236n9, 240, 269, 277; Homo sapiens and, 8–10, 206, 217, 230, 233; life expectancy and, 274–79; Malthusian Epoch and, 10–17; natural selection and, 5, 83n18, 132, 232–35, 238, 240, 241n21, 261, 267, 270–78; Neolithic Revolution and, 7, 9, 75, 232, 234, 238n14, 252, 270–78; persistence of prehistorical biogeographic conditions and, 7–8; personality and, 273–74; population growth and, 232–34, 237, 240, 252, 263, 268n37, 279; Rapoport’s Rule and, 81n17; stagnation and, 232–35, 261, 265–66, 269–70, 278–79; urbanization and, 275; valuation of quality and, 234–70 Human Genome Diversity Cell Line Panel, 222 income per capita, 3–5, 287–88; budget constraints and, 69–70, 124; child quality and, 116; comparative development and, 179– 82, 186, 189, 191, 194, 198–99, 203–4, 207–10, 213, 216, 219, 224–30; demographic transition and, 46, 52–54, 115–24, 127–37; fluctuations in, 15–16; Great Divergence and, 3, 5n3, 57–61, 141n1, 145, 170, 174, 181; industrialization and, 30, 36, 38, 42; living standards and, 1–2, 6, 10–11, 14, 17–18, 67, 74, 77, 80, 91, 94, 98, 105–7, 109, , 147, 167 176, 179, 215, 285; Malthusian Epoch and, 10–17; Malthusian theory and, 67–81, 91–99, 102–11; Modern Growth Regime and, 55–64; population density and, 67–110; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 17–20, 23, 28–30; rise in, 116–19; stagnation and, 11–12, 67; Unified Growth Theory and, 140–82, 186, 189, 191, 194, 198–99, 203–4, 207–10, 213, 216, 219, 224–30 India: stagnation to growth and, 26; demographic transition and, 129; Malthusian theory and, 112; Modern Growth Regime and, 61n34; process of development and, 242n22; Unified Growth Theory and, 180n4, 197n20, 201–2, 222n40 industrialization: child labor and, 32, 36, 131, 171, 177, 186, 230; education and, 30–37; England and, 31–35; Europe and, 34– 37; globalization and, 25, 27–29; Great Exhibition and, 35; human capital formation and, 30–46; income per capita and, 30, 36, 38, 42; inequality and, 38, 42; interest groups and, 37; international trade and, 27–29, 84, 170, 174, 199–205; London Exhibition and, 35; Modern Growth Regime and, 55–56; pace of, 27–29; Paris Exhibition and, 33; population growth and, 30, 46, 67; PostMalthusian Regime and, 25–29; religion and, 30, 32; resources and, 30–31, 38; skilled labor and, 30–32, 35, 37n21, 148, 199, 203; technology and, 6; transition from agriculture and, 172–74; United States and, 37; unskilled labor and, 195, 199, 201, 203–4; urbanization and, 25–27 Industrial Revolution, 1, 124, 131; China and, 58n32; education and, 31–37; failed take-off attempts and, 265–66; first phase of, 30; life expectancy and, 131; Modern Growth Regime and, 55; second phase of, 30–32; shocks and, 142; transition from stagnation to growth and, 9, 18, 29–36, 55, 59; Unified Growth Theory and, 142, 169, 202–3 inequality, 2; comparative development and, 64, 179–86, 193–98, 230; convergence clubs and, 6, 8, 59n33, 142, 170, 179, 181, 226–29, 231, 286; Great Divergence and, 3, 5n3, 57–61, 141n1, 145, 170, 174, 181; industrialization and, 38, 42; land distribution and, 39, 41, 181; living standards and, 6–8; Modern Growth Regime and, 58–61; modern increase of, infant mortality, 52–53, 120–23, 205, 240n19, 275n46 intellectual property rights, 6, 182–83, 229 interest groups, 6; comparative development and, 182, 184, 230; industrialization and, 37 Intermediate Value Theorem, 251–52 international trade, 83; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 27–29; Unified Growth Theory and, 170, 174, 199–205 Japan: comparative development and, 197, 225; demographic transition of, 49; education and, 39–40; industrialization and, 39– 41; land reform and, 39–40; Modern Growth Regime and, 63n35 Judaism, 132, 186n14 Kabbalah, labor: AIDS and, 131n24; child, 32, 36, 131, 171, 177, 186, 230; comparative development and, 186, 194–95, 199–204, 230; demographic transition and, 115–16, 120, 124–25, 131–37; Malthusian theory and, 70–74; old-age security hypothesis and, 136; skilled, 30–32, 35, 148, 199, 203; time path of income per worker and, 72, 74; Unified Growth Theory and, 144–55, 162–63, 167, 169, 171–72, 175, 177, 186, 194–95, 199–204, 230; unskilled, 195, 199, 201, 203–4 laissez-faire policy, 33 land: concentration of ownership of, 37–39; comparative development and, 181, 194–98; distribution of, 39, 41, 181; Japan and, 39–40; Malthusian theory and, 1, 14, 17, 66–69, 74–75, 78–108, 112; property rights and, 150, 180–83, 239; reform and, 39–42, 197; Russia and, 40; South Korea and, 40–42; Taiwan and, 40–42; technology and, 1, 14, 17, 66–69, 74–75, 78–108, 112, 144; Unified Growth Theory and, 144 Latin America, 1–2, 11, 18, 2–21, 28, 38–39, 42, 45–46, 48–50, 53–59, 62, 65, 194n18 life expectancy, 15–16, 49n29, 216–17; AIDS and, 131n24; channel for, 210, 212–15; demographic transition and, 52–54, 131; evolutionary growth theory and, 274–78; human evolution and, 274–78; rise in, 131 literacy, 13n3; comparative development and, 186; demographic transition and, 118, 123, 128, 133–35; education reform and, 31–45, 131, 174, 195, 197; gender and, 32; industrialization and, 31–32; Modern Growth Regime and, 55 living standards, 1–2, 6, 66; literacy and, 13n3, 31–36, 37n21, 40, 55, 118, 123, 128, 133–35, 186, 267–69; Malthusian epoch and, 10–11, 14; Malthusian theory and, 67, 74, 81, 94, 106; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 17–18; Unified Growth Theory and, 176, 179, 186, 215 Local Taxation Act, 34 London Exhibition, 35 Malthusian-Boserupian interaction, 68n2, 74–75, 144 Malthusian Epoch, xv–xvi, 4, 9, 65, 87; Black Death and, 12; comparative development and, 182, 228, 232–37, 250, 252, 257– 58, 261–71, 276, 279; demographic transition and, 124, 132; income fluctuations in, 15–16; main characteristics of, 17; mortality and, 13n3, 14–15; phase transition from, 143; population dynamism and, 12–14; stagnation of income per capita and, 11–12; struggle for existence in, 10; technology and, 16; Unified Growth Theory and, 142–47, 155n19, 167, 169, 174, 176; urbanization and, 14n4 Malthusian theory: basic regression model and, 79–80; basic structure of, 68–70; climate and, 69, 81n17, 85, 103–4, 112; crosscountry evidence and, 80–108; data for, 77–79; effects of technological advancement and, 95–108; empirical framework for, 74– 77; evolution of the economy and, 70–74; geographical factors and, 68, 75, 77, 80–81, 83–87, 90–91, 93, 98–99, 101, 103–10, 112; income per capita and, 67–68, 72–75, 77–81, 91–98, 103–10; labor and, 67–74, 105, 109; land productivity and, 1, 14, 17, 67–69, 74–75, 77–112; luck and, 124n14; mortality and, 68n3; Neolithic Revolution and, 74–95, 99–105, 109–11, 113–14; population growth and, 67–68, 74, 94, 101, 105; predictions of, 67–69, 74; preferences and, 69; production and, 69; Rapoport’s Rule and, 81n17; regression analysis of, 79–108; rejection of alternative theories and, 105–8, 110; robustness of, 103–8; subsistence consumption and, 70n5; time path of income per worker and, 72–74; Unified Growth Theory and, 143–45; urbanization and, 77n11, 83, 103, 110; utility function, 69; Malthusian trap, 2, 4, 228, 285–86; stagnation and, 9, 30, 46, 66; Unified Growth Theory and, 140–41, 144, 166, 172n32, 180 marriages, 13n3, 23, 25, 240n18 Meiji Restoration, 39 Mexican Revolution, 38 migratory distance: comparative development and, 8, 179, 206, 217–24, 230; out-of-Africa hypothesis and, 8, 221–24 Modern Growth Regime, xv, 4, 9, 46; comparative development and, 182, 220, 226–29, 261, 265; convergence clubs and, 226– 29; evolutionary growth theory and, 249n27, 261, 265–66; human capital and, 55–56; income per capita and, 55–64; inequality and, 58–61; literacy and, 55; Malthusian theory and, 67–74, 106, 110; population growth and, 62–63; rapid industrialization and, 55–56; resources and, 58n32, 62; shocks and, 142; sustained growth of income per capita and, 57; Unified Growth Theory and, 142–45, 148, 157, 160–161, 164–66, 170, 182, 220, 261, 265 mortality: AIDS and, 131n24; Black Death and, 12, 14, 16, 72, 275n45; child, 120–23, 137–39; comparative development and, 20–23, 203, 205, 213, 216; decline in, 51–52, 120–23, 137, 172; demographic transition and, 51–53, 115, 118, 120–23, 128, 135, 137; famine and, 14n4, 67n1, 235n6; infant, 52, 120–23, 205, 240n19, 275n46; life expectancy and, 15–16, 49n29, 52–54, 131, 210–17, 273–78; Malthusian Epoch and, 13n3, 14–15; Malthusian theory and, 68n3; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 23–25; transition from stagnation to growth and, 14–15, 23, 51–53; Unified Growth Theory and, 172, 177 Native Americans, 8, 222n41, 225 Neolithic Revolution: agriculture and, 75–6; causal timing of, 84–85; comparative development and, 179, 207–17, 226; human evolution and, 232, 234, 238n14, 270–78; life-expectancy channel and, 210–15, 274–78; living standards and, 7–9; Malthusian theory and, 74–104, 109, 114; population density and, 74–108; socio-technological head-start channel and, 207–10; technical advancement effects and, 78–79, 95–108 Netherlands, 27, 34, 36, 43, 51, 118–19 Norway, 45, 51, 118–19, 127, 129–30 novelty seeking, 272–73 old-age security hypothesis, 136–37 OPEC economies, 204n29 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 204–7 Ottoman Empire, 184n9 out-of-Africa hypothesis: comparative development and, 217–26; empirical examination and, 224–26; genetic diversity and, 221– 24; migratory distance and, 8, 221–24; serial founder effect and, 221–24 Pakistan, 26, 112 Paris Exhibition, 33 political reform, 42–45 Poor Law Act, 136 population growth: Black Death and, 12, 14, 16, 72, 276n45; comparative development and, 198–200, 228–29; counterbalancing effects of, 9–10; decline in, 46–51; demographic transition and, 46–49, 54, 115, 120–24, 133, 136–37; dynamics of, 12–14, 157– 64, 187–88; famine and, 14n4, 67n1, 235n6, 247; fertility and, 5, 13n3, 14–15, 23–25 ; genetic diversity and, 217–26; human evolution and, 232–34, 237, 270–78; industrialization and, 30, 46, 67; land use and, 10; life expectancy and, 15–16, 49n29, 52– 54, 131, 210–17, 274–78; Malthusian-Boserupian interaction and, 68n2, 74; Malthusian Epoch and, 9, 10–17, 287–88; Malthusian theory and, 67–108; marriage and, 13n3, 23, 25, 240n18; migratory distance and, 8, 179, 206, 217–24, 230; modern growth regime and, 55–58, 62–64; mortality and, 13n3, 14–15, 23, 51–53, 68n3, 115, 118, 120–23, 128, 135, 137, 172, 177, 203, 205, 213, 216, 240n20, 274–78; out-of-Africa hypothesis and, 217–26; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 17–30, 66; spike in, 4, 18–23, 140, 166, 168; standards of living and, 1–2, 4, 6, 9–11, 14, 17–18, 56, 65, 67, 74, 77, 80, 91, 94, 98, 105–7, 109, 147, 167, 176, 179, 215, 285; technology and, 13–14, 147–48, 155; Unified Growth Theory and, 141, 144–48, 155, 165–69, 172–78, 198– 200, 228–29 positive check, 67 Post-Malthusian Regime, xv, 9, 66; budget constraints and, 23; central features of, 29–30; comparative development and, 182, 269; demographic transition and, 46, 118, 121; emergence from Malthusian trap and, 17–18; fertility and, 23–25; globalization and, 25, 27–29; income per capita and, 17–20, 23, 28–30; industrialization and, 25–29; mortality and, 23–25; spike in population growth during, 18, 20, 23; take-off of income during, 18, 20; technology and, 20; Unified Growth Theory and, 144–45, 148, 161, 164–70, 182; urbanization and, 25–27 poverty, 228, 270, 287 preventive check, 67 Princeton Project on the Decline of Fertility in Europe, 115n1 property rights: 6, 150, 180–83, 229, 239 Protestant Reformation, 184n9 Prussia, 33n19, 34, 36, 45, 128, 132 Rapoport’s Rule, 81 raw materials, 25, 29 reform: education, 31–45, 131, 174, 195, 197; land, 39–42, 197; political, 42–45 Reform Act of 1832, 42 Reform Act of 1867, 42 Reform Act of 1884, 43 regression analysis: comparative development and, 203–7, 222–23; Malthusian theory and, 80–111; Unified Growth Theory and, 203–7, 222–23 religion: demographic transition and, 132; industrialization and, 30, 32, 34–35; living standards and, 6–7; Protestant Reformation and, 184n9; Unified Growth Theory and, 179, 181–86, 230 resources, 1, 3, 66, 287; comparative development and, 180–84, 194–95, 209, 230; demographic transition and, 49, 115, 121, 124, 130; evolutionary growth theory and, 234–36, 239, 246–47, 251–265, 268, 271–72, 276, 279–81, 285; industrialization and, 30–31, 38; level of effective, 156; living standards and, 7; Malthusian Epoch and, 12–17; Malthusian theory and, 67–74; Modern Growth Regime and, 58n31, 62; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 18, 30; Rapoport’s Rule and, 81n17; Unified Growth Theory and, 141, 144, 147–49, 155–62, 165–68, 172–74, 177, 180–84, 194–95, 209, 230 risk aversion, 117n5, 121, 125n15, 150n11, 233n2, 271–72 Royal Commission on Scientific Instruction and the Advancement of Science, 33 Royal Commission on Technical Education, 33–34 Russia, 39–40, 45, 197, 222 saddle point, 164 Schools Inquiry commission, 23 Select Committee on Scientific Instruction, 33 serial founder effect, 221–24 shocks: demographic transition and, 124n14, 129–30; evolutionary growth theory and, 235n6, 247, 262, 266, 268n37, 273; Malthusian theory and, 75n8, 83n18; Unified Growth Theory and, 142, 165, 228 South Korea, 40–42 stagnation, 287–88; comparative development and, 179–82, 187–91, 228–31; demographic transition and, 115, 136–37; escape from Malthusian trap and, 140–41, 144, 166, 172n32, 180, 228; evolutionary growth theory and, 232–33, 235, 261, 265–66, 269– 70, 278–79; failed take-off attempts and, 265–66;; industrialization and, 30–46; Malthusian Epoch and, 10–17; Malthusian theory and, 67, 109; origins of global disparity in living standards and, 6–8; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 17–30; sustained economic growth and, 20, 55–57, 66; technology and, 1–10, 13–20, 29–37, 45–46, 54–58, 64–66; Unified Growth Theory and, 140–48, 164–66, 169–74, 177–82, 187–91, 228–31 subsistence consumption: evolutionary growth theory and, 232, 235n6, 237, 240n19, 240–41, 243–44, 246, 252n27, 259, 263–64; Malthusian theory and, 70n5, 147; Unified Growth Theory and, 147, 150n12, 151–57, 161–62, 175, 178 sustained economic growth, 1–5, 287–88; comparative development and, 179–81, 187, 193, 198–99, 202–3, 210, 213, 221, 228– 29; demographic transition and, 136–37; divergence and, 198–206; living standards and, 6–8; stagnation to, 10, 20, 55–57, 66; Unified Growth Theory and, 140–48, 164–66, 169–70, 173–81, 187, 193, 198–99, 202–3, 210, 213, 221, 228–29 Sweden: demographic transition and, 49–52, 118–23, 127, 135; education and, 34, 45; Malthusian theory and, 68n3; Modern Growth Regime and, 55; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 25, 28–29 Switzerland, 25, 27, 32, 33n19, 55 Taiwan, 39–42, 197 Technical Instruction Act, 34 technology, 287–88; comparative development and, 180–202, 206–14, 218–21, 225, 228–30; competition and, 184; complimentary natural resources and, 184; constant-returns-to-scale and, 69; credit-market imperfections and, 184; cross-country differences in, 13–14; demographic transition and, 115, 124–27, 131–34; determinants of progress in, 237–38; diffusion of, 6, 102–6; dynamics of, 157–61, 187–88; education and, 187–88; elements contributing to, 187–88; entrepreneurial activities and, 184; evolutionary growth theory and, 249–79; factors contributing to progress of, 183–84; gender and, 133–35; geography and, 102–6; human capital and, 30–46, 193–98; impact of, 95–106; Industrial Revolution and, 1, 9, 18, 23n8, 29–36, 55, 58n32, 59, 124, 131, 142, 148, 169, 202–3, 233–38; intellectual property rights and, 183; interest groups and, 6, 184; knowledge and, 183; land productivity and, 1, 14, 17, 66–69, 74–75, 78–108, 112, 144; Malthusian-Boserupian interaction and, 144n2; Malthusian Epoch and, 16; Malthusian theory and, 67–114; Middle Ages and, 75; modern pace of progress in, 9–10; Neolithic Revolution and, 7, 9, 75–95, 99–105, 109–10, 114, 179, 207–17, 226, 232, 234, 238n14, 270–78; out-of-Africa hypothesis and, 217–26; population growth and, 13–14, 147–48, 155; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 20; religion and, 184; standards of living and, 1–2, 6– 11, 14, 17–18, 66–67, 74, 81, 94, 106, 176, 179, 215; transition from stagnation to growth and, 1–10, 13–20, 29–37, 45–46, 54– 58, 64–66; Unified Growth Theory and, 141–78; variation in progress of, 189–91 Tokugawa regime, 39 Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire (TPQ), 272n41 Unified Growth Theory, xvi, 285–286; agricultural-industrial transition and, 172–74; analysis framework of, 140–41, 228; basic model structure of, 149–54; budget constraints and, 150–51, 166, 168; calibrations of, 174–77; central building blocks of, 146– 49; child quality and, 150, 154, 166, 168, 174n33, 178, 185; climate and, 180, 208–9; coining of term, 5n3, 141n1; comparative development and, 179–231; complementary mechanisms for, 170–74; country-specific characteristics and, 182–88; demographic transition and, 54, 140, 144–48, 161, 164, 166, 169–71, 174–78, 181–82, 189, 191, 199–204, 229–30, 238; development of, 141–43; dynamical systems and, 156–64; education and, 151–71, 174–78, 182–91, 194–99, 204–10, 213, 216, 219, 229–30; escape from Malthusian trap and, 140–41, 144, 166, 172n32, 180, 228; evolutionary growth theory and, 237–38, 278; fertility and, 148–49, 161n23, 174–78; fundamental challenge of, 142–43; genetic diversity and, 217–26; global variation and, 4; growth process and, 182–88; historical analysis and, 4–5; human capital and, 140–43, 146–52, 157, 166, 168–205, 209–10, 213–21, 228– 30; income per capita and, 140–64, 161, 165–78, 179–82, 186, 189, 191, 194, 198–99, 203–4, 207–10, 213, 216, 219, 224–30; incompatibility of non-unified growth theories and, 143–46; industrialization and, 30; international trade and, 170, 174, 199–205; labor and, 144–55, 162–63, 167, 169, 171–72, 175, 177, 186, 194–95, 199–204, 230; land productivity and, 144; main hypotheses of, 166–70; Malthusian elements and, 147; Malthusian Epoch and, 142–47, 167, 169, 174–76, 182, 228, 232–37, 250, 252, 261–73, 270–78; Malthusian theory and, 143–45; migratory distance and, 8, 179, 206, 217–24, 230; Modern Growth Regime and, 64, 142–45, 148, 157, 161, 164–66, 182, 220, 226–29; mortality and, 172, 177; origins of global disparity in living standards and, 6–8; out-of-Africa hypothesis and, 217–26; persistence of prehistorical biogeographic conditions and, 7–8; population growth and, 141, 144–48, 155, 165–69, 172–78, 198–200, 228–29; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 144–45, 148, 161, 164–70, 182; prediction of final output and, 149–50; preferences and, 150–51; property rights and, 150, 180–83, 230, 239; regression analysis of, 203–7, 222–23; resources and, 141, 144, 147–49, 155–62, 165–68, 172–74, 177, 180–84, 194–95, 209, 230; stagnation and, 2–3, 140–48, 164–66, 169–74, 177–82, 187–91, 228–31; subsistence consumption and, 147, 150–57, 161– 62, 175, 178; sustained economic growth and, 140–48, 164–66, 169–70, 173–81, 187, 193, 198–99, 202–3, 210, 213, 221, 228– 29; technology and, 141–78; urbanization and, 198; variation in global development and, 140; United Kingdom, 14n6, 20, 23, 25–29, 46n28 United States: Civil War of, 38n24; comparative development and, 197–98, 225; demographic transition and, 120, 133; education and, 37; industrialization and, 37; Native Americans and, 222n41; population growth in, 14n6; stagnation to growth and, 2, 14, 25–26, 29, 34, 37–38, 51, 54–56, 61–62 urbanization: comparative development and, 198; human evolution and, 275; industrialization and, 25–27; Malthusian Epoch and, 14n4, 15; Malthusian theory and, 77n11, 83, 103, 110; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 25–27; Unified Growth Theory and, 198 Western Europe, 2, 12, 18–23, 28–29, 32, 34, 38, 45–46, 48–55, 57, 59, 62–63, 65, 118–19, 121–23, 127, 168, 174, 198n23, 229n45, Western Offshoots: demographic transition and, 46–54, 53; Malthusian Epoch and, 2, 11; Modern Growth Regime and, 55, 57, 59; Post-Malthusian Regime and, 18–22 World Development Indicators (World Bank), 110, 112 World Factbook (CIA), 110, 113 ... Quantity CHAPTER Unified Growth Theory 5.1 The Fundamental Challenge 5.2 Incompatibility of Non -Unified Growth Theories 5.2.1 The Malthusian Theory 5.2.2 Theories of Modern Economic Growth 5.3 Central... by Brian Snowdon (2008), “Towards a Unified Theory of Economic Growth. ” The theory was the subject of the author’s Kuznets Lecture titled Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Economic Development”... living standards have led to the development of a unified theory of economic growth that captures the growth process in its entirety Unified Growth Theory explores the fundamental factors that have