The Energy Disruption Triangle The Energy Disruption Triangle Three Sectors That Will Change How We Generate, Use, and Store Energy David C Fessler Copyright © 2019 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc All rights reserved Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation You should consult with a professional where appropriate Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993, or fax (317) 572-4002 Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Fessler, Dave, 1953- author Title: The energy disruption triangle : three sectors that will change how we generate, use, and store energy / Dave Fessler Description: Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2019] | Includes index | Identifiers: LCCN 2018045785 (print) | LCCN 2018047877 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119347132 (ePub) | ISBN 9781119347125 (ePDF) | ISBN 9781119347118 (hardcover) Subjects: LCSH: Energy industries | Energy consumption | Energy development Classification: LCC HD9502.A2 (ebook) | LCC HD9502.A2 F47 2019 (print) | DDC 333.79—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018045785 Cover Design: Wiley Cover Image: © mikalajn/Shutterstock, © mr teerapon tiuekhom/Shutterstock, © Diyana Dimitrova/Shutterstock Printed in the United States of America 10 To my dear wife, Anne, and my devoted sons, Jared and Noah With you at my side, anything is possible If you not change direction, you may end up where you are heading —Lao Tzu Contents F OREWORD I NTRODUCTION A CKNOWLEDGMENTS A BOUT THE A UTHOR XIII XIX XXXIII XXXV SECTION T HE US S OLAR B UILD O UT : D ISRUPTING E NERGY S UPPLIES CHAPTER T HE H ISTORY OF S OLAR E NERGY CHAPTER T HE W ORKINGS OF A IS A M ODERN S OLAR E NERGY S YSTEM CHAPTER S OLAR S YSTEM R IGHT FOR Y OU ? CHAPTER U TILITY-S CALE S OLAR T AKES O FF CHAPTER W HAT’S A HEAD FOR S OLAR E NERGY ix 18 31 51 69 x CONTENTS SECTION E LECTRIC V EHICLES : D ISRUPTING T RANSPORTATION CHAPTER T HE H ISTORY OF E LECTRIC V EHICLES CHAPTER H ENNEY’S K ILOWATT OF T HEIR T IME CHAPTER T HE V ISION OF CHAPTER 10 EV S AND GM’S EV1: A HEAD E LON M USK CHAPTER E VERYBODY AND INTO THE EV P OOL S TRANDED O IL (P EAK D EMAND I S H ERE ) 95 97 118 127 159 188 SECTION C HEAP B ATTERY S TORAGE : T HE B IGGEST E NERGY D ISRUPTOR CHAPTER 11 T HE R ISE OF E NERGY S TORAGE CHAPTER 12 E NERGY S TORAGE T ECHNOLOGIES CHAPTER 13 W HY C HEAP E NERGY S TORAGE M ATTERS CHAPTER 14 D ISRUPTING THE US E NERGY S UPPLY 199 201 210 221 233 xi CONTENTS CHAPTER 15 S AY G OODBYE CHAPTER 16 EV S AS AN TO C ONVENTIONAL P OWER P LANTS E NERGY S OURCE CHAPTER 17 G REENHOUSE G ASES D ISAPPEAR CHAPTER 18 G ETTING CHAPTER 19 TO N ET Z ERO : US E NERGY I NDEPENDENCE E NERGY 2118: A L OOK A HEAD G LOSSARY I NDEX 244 262 273 285 298 313 321 Foreword It has often and rightly been said that you never fully appreciate something until it’s gone This is particularly true of energy We take it for granted when we flick the light switch that we’ll get illumination Or that the car will start when we turn the key Or that the room will get cooler when we hit the air conditioner It’s only when those things don’t happen that we’re reminded just how dependent we are on safe, reliable energy And if we fail to appreciate energy in our day-to-day lives, we don’t adequately recognize how different life was in the past without it Imagine, for example, that the Roman statesman Cicero – from 18 centuries earlier – magically decided to visit Thomas Jefferson at Monticello How would that happen? He would start by sending Jefferson a letter informing him of his intended visit (And given the quality of the transatlantic postal service 200 years ago, he might easily arrive before his letter.) He would then take a horse to a Mediterranean port He would sail on a wind-driven wooden boat to the United States He would arrive in Charlottesville on horseback And he would find Jefferson in a mountaintop home heated by fire and reading at night by candlelight In other words, almost two millennia would have passed and yet an aristocrat like Jefferson lived just like the citizens of ancient Rome This underscores just how mistaken it is to assume that human history has been one long upward-sloping arc of progress It hasn’t Our lives only began to really improve with the advent of science – and the successful harnessing of energy Energy powered the Industrial Revolution And that has been an unalloyed good for humanity It made it possible to feed billions, double xiii xiv FOREWORD life spans, slash extreme poverty, and replace human sweat and misery with machinery As societies got richer, life was no longer a struggle for subsistence People no longer spent their days trying to meet basic needs Indeed, energy has played an incalculable role in making us richer, safer, healthier, and freer than our ancestors The folks who work in the resource sector – and the investors who finance them – make our affluent lives possible And the high returns they deliver is a good reason energy stocks deserve a place in your portfolio Yes, there is a downside to our prodigious energy use Fossil fuels create waste They damage the environment Carbon emissions get trapped in the atmosphere Yet some people don’t see the big picture And I mean really don’t get it Author Bill McKibben writes, “We need to view the fossil-fuel industry in a new light It has become a rogue industry, reckless like no other force on Earth It is Public Enemy Number One to the survival of our planetary civilization.”1 James Hansen, a prominent climate scientist, says oil company CEOs should be “tried for high crimes against humanity and nature.”2 And in a New York Times review of Naomi Klein’s book This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs the Climate, Rob Nixon openly laments that we are unable to bankrupt the major oil companies.3 This is not environmentalism It is mindless anti-corporatism How will you drive or fly, heat and cool your home, or operate your smart phone and computer without fossil fuels? I’m not insensitive to environmentalists’ concerns Climate change is real and human carbon emissions play a major role Yet the voices of some prominent environmentalists aren’t just shrill They’re counterproductive They don’t understand that scientific innovation and capitalism will ultimately help solve our climate problems, not self-righteous finger wagging My long-time friend and colleague Dave Fessler knows the history of energy and how it created modern prosperity INDEX maintenance costs, comparison, 264 prototype car, construction, 110 vehicles, India ban, 182 Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Notice 2018-59, 32 International Energy Agency (IEA) oil demand prediction, 189 renewable energy prediction, 226–227 International Renewable Energy Association, price reduction prediction, 25 International Space Station, Dragon spacecraft rendevous, 265 Inverter, 315 efficiency, 39 requirement, 36, 46 Investment Tax Credit (ITC), 14, 32, 53, 70, 299 absence, 48 expiration, 62 extension, 71 receiving, 47 Investor-owned utilities (IOUs), 65 IOUs See Investor-owned utilities Ireland Kilroot Advancion Energy Storage Array (AES Corporation), 247–248 power grid, renewable power source integration, 248 Iron/zinc batteries, usage, 106 333 IRP See Integrated resource plan ISO-New England, 251–252 ITC See Investment Tax Credit J Jamais Contente, 109–110 J.B Hunt, Semi (Tesla) orders, 152 Jeantaud, Charles, 109 Jedlik, Ányos, 102 electric toy car, 104f “lightning-magnetic self-rotor,” 103f Jenatzy, Camille, 109 JK Moving Services, Semi (Tesla) orders, 152 Jobs, Steve, 127, 264 Job years, number (list), 73 Johnson Controls, 128 Jones Lang LaSalle 2016 Industrial Outlook, 62 K Kansas, SB 91, 10 Keohane, Nathaniel, 278 Keystone XL oil pipeline, Trump (impact/permit grant), 275 Kilowatt hours (kWh), addition, 39 Kilroot Advancion Energy Storage Array (AES Corporation), 247–248 Kinetic energy, transformation, 210 Kohler, Herbert, 137 Kriéger Company of Electric Vehicles, 109 334 INDEX Liquid air, 211, 316 Lithium carbonate, 215 Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), 216–217, 316 Lithium, description, 214–215 Lithium-ion batteries L cobalt demand, 219f Lake Meade (energy storage components, 217 system), 211 popularity, 215 Landline telephone systems, Lithium-ion chemistry, necessity, 44 dominance, 219 Land yacht See Wind chariot Lithium-ion energy density, Lawrence Berkeley National increase, 222 Laboratory report, 28–29 Lithium-ion, pricing, 222f Lazard study, 77 Lithium prices, 216f LCE See Lithium carbonate Loblaw Companies Limited, equivalent Semi (Tesla) orders, 152 LCOE See Levelized cost of Lohner-Porsche, 111 energy London Electric Cab Company, Lead-acid batteries, disadvantage, 108 45 Los Angeles Auto Show (1990), LEAF (Nissan), 97–98, 167–168, 120–121 178 Lotus Elise, 130 battery, problem, 170 Lowenthal, Alan S., 121 LED bulb, electricity usage, 35, Loy Yang A 3, 223 286–290, 298 Legacy assets, dismantling, 309 M Level (L1), charger, 315 MacMasters, Alan, 311 operation, 174 Marcellus shale region, gas prices, Level (L2), charger, 315 251 operation, 174 Marconi, Guglielmo, 311 Levelized cost of energy (LCOE), Marcus, Siegfried, 110 77 Marinoni printing press, power, Levelized US utility-scale PPA Master Plan (Tesla), 130–131 prices, 28f Master Plan, Part Deux (Tesla), LG Chem (battery pack), 132 148–155 “Lightning-magnetic self-rotor” McCornack, Herbert, 311 (Jedlik), 103f McNamee, Bernard, 255 Kriéger, Louis Antoine, 109 electric landaulet, 110f Kurzweil, Ray, 91 Kyocera Corporation, solar cell production, 8–9 INDEX Meijer supermarkets, Semi (Tesla) orders, 152 Mercedes electric vehicles (EVs), 167 Generation EQ, 167 Metallgesellschaft AG, lithium production, 215 Metcalf Energy Center, 225 Microprocessor, 316 Microwave technology, usage, 274 Missouri, energy supply disruption, 235 Model (Tesla), 144–148, 173, 265 glass roof, 147f initial delivery event, 145f interior, 146f Model S sedan (Tesla), 134f building, 133–141 frames, robot welding/assembly, 138f NHTSA 5-star safety rating, 139 Model T (Ford), 193 Model X (Tesla), 98, 141–144, 142f, 229 Module efficiencies, 21–23 Module mismatch derating factor, 39 Module soiling derating factor, 39 Montana, energy supply disruption, 236 Monticello coal-fired power plant, 235 Moore’s law, 25, 222 Morey, Samuel, 106 335 Morris and Salom Electric Carriage and Wagon Company, 111 Morris, Henry G., 111 Morrison, William, 112 electric carriage, 112f Mouchot, Augustin, 4–6 Müller, Matthias, 169 Multi-junction light-concentrating solar cell, efficiency, 22 Murray, Robert, 239 Musk, Elon, 91, 191, 216 change, 192 early days, 127–128 energy project perspective, 224 Master Plan (2016), 130–131 Master Plan, Part Deux, 148–155 vision, 127 N Nameplate capacity, 58, 316 Nanotechnology, 316 usage, 21 NASA, Carbon Monitoring System (Trump cessation), 277 Nasser, Amin, 191, 264 National Grid, 170–171 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), certified conversion efficiency, 90 certified test, 23 solar radiation data set, 38f study, 78 U.S Solar Resource Maps, 36 336 National Solar Jobs Census, 52 National Union Electric Company, 118 Exide batteries, 119 National Union Electric Corporation, 118 Natural gas capacity (increase), renewables (impact), 250–252 crisis, 257–259 demand, 226 natural gas-fired generating plant, RMI investigation, 293–294 natural gas-fired peaker plant, cost, 72 peaker plants, demand, 226 Nelder, Chris, 176 Neoen, storage project, 223 Net zero, approach, 285, 294–297 NEW See Norddeutsche Energie-Wende “New Electric Powered Automobile, The,” 118 New England, power grid (reliability), 251 New England Power Pool, 251 New Mexico, energy supply disruption, 234 New United Motors Manufacturing Inc (NUMMI), 136–137 NextEra Energy, 225–226, 248–249 INDEX solar thermal energy plant ownership, 57 Nickel-iron batteries (Edison), 114f Nissan Motors EV development, 97 LEAF, 97–98, 167–168, 177 Nissan-Renault alliance, electric vehicles (EVs), 167–168 Nominal frequency, 244–245, 316 Norddeutsche Energie-Wende (NEW) (Northern Germany Energy Transition), 280 NREL See National Renewable Energy Laboratory NTPC, 248 N-type semiconductor, 19 Nuclear-fired power plants, operation (continuation), 240 Nuclear plants, disappearance, 254–257 Nuclear power, 316 cessation, 253–254 Nuclear renaissance, prediction, 255 Nuclear sunset, 256 NUMMI See New United Motors Manufacturing Inc O Oakland Clean Energy Initiative, 225 Obama, Barack, solar panel additions (White House), 10 INDEX Off-grid configuration, components, 44–45 Off-grid solar power systems, impact, 44 Off-grid systems, 43–46 batteries/generator, usage, 45f battery backup, usage, 44f battery storage/generator backup, usage, 45–46 inverter, requirement, 46 Offshore wind (Massachusetts), 312 Oil Dakota Access oil pipeline (fast-tracking), Trump (impact), 275 demand, peak, 192–197 electricity, contrast, 280–281 global oil demand, 191f production, maximum, 262 Keystone XL oil pipeline, Trump (impact/permit grant), 275 oil-changing franchises, disappearance, 162 peak oil, concept, 262–264 state-owner oil companies, stranded asset risk (increase), 196 surplus oil/gas production, private sector control, 196 On-peak hours, 34 “Operational Fuel Security Analysis,” 251 Optimization, advances, 300 Organic photovoltaic device, 87–88, 316 337 NREL certified maximum efficiency, 88 Organic solar cell architecture, 88f Ørsted, Hans Christian (discovery), 102–104 Oyster Creek plant, closure, 255 Ozone, depletion, 274 P P1 (Porsche car), 111 Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), power plant operation, 225 Packard Automobile Company, 119 Page, Larry, 129 Parabolic solar-powered steam generator, 5f Parabolic through collector, 57f Paris Climate Accord, 192–197 carbon rules, 193 Trump withdrawal, 240–242 Paris Climate Agreement Pruitt opposition, 276 targets, meeting, 183 Paris Exposition Internationale d’ Électricité, 108–109 Paris United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP21) CO2 limits, 14 Parker, Thomas, 107 electric car, 107f PayPal, 128 Peaker plant, 316 cost, 72 Peak oil concept, 262–264 demand, 263 338 INDEX Peak theory (Hubbert), 160–161 Planté, Gaston, 106 Pleasant Prairie coal-fired proposal, 161 generating station, 234–235 Pearson, G.L., PepsiCo, Semi (Tesla) orders, 153 Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), 164, 166, 168, Perovskite solar cell architecture, 180 90f Pneumatic, term (usage), 316 Perry, John, 106, 254–255 Perry, Rick, 240 Pneumatic tires, usage, 111 Petalite, 214–215 P-n junction, 4, 316 PHEV See Plug-in hybrid electric composition, 19f vehicle PNM Resources, 234 Photodiodes, 4, 316 Polycrystalline silicon, 316 Photoelectric effect, solar cells, 19f Photoelectric, term (usage), 316 function, 19–20 Photons, 4, 316 usage, 19 Photovoltaic (PV) Polysilicon market balance, 16f annual US solar PV Polysilicon, oversupply, 14 installations, 66f Polysilicon spot prices, history blockbusters, 83 (dollars per kilogram), 12f building-integrated Polysilicon supply/demand, photovoltaics, 82–83 15f demand (by region), 14f Polysilicon wafers, US access effect, magic, 4–9 (loss), 14–15 organic photovoltaic device, Pope, Albert Augustus, 113 87–88 Porsche, Ferdinand, 111 solar panels, cost (decrease), Pouchain, Paul, 109 192 Pouyanné, Patrick, 194 solar resource (US), 37f Powalla, Michael, 85 Swanson’s law, 26f Powelson, Ron, 255 term, usage, 316 Power US solar PV installations, 70f AC generation, 244–245 Pieper, Henri, 109 fault, waveform, 246f Pifre, Abel, 6–7 generation, source, 266–271 Pinal Central Solar Energy markets, 269 Center, lithium-ion battery plants, 317 energy storage, 250 cessation, 244 Piontek Sportech kit car, 128 thermal power plants, 292 PJM Interconnection, 240, 256 Power2Steel (ArcelorMittal), 281 INDEX Power grid, 43, 316 action, absence, 304 balance, 245 battery system, installation, 250 customer engagement, 302 disruption, 303 EVs, connection, 267 excess capacity, comparison, 204 future, 298 harm, 240 havoc, 301 operators, 240 optimization, 300 power remuneration, connection, 59 reliability (New England), 251 renewable power sources, integration, 248 resources, 293 United States power grid, 292 update, 301 upgrade/expansion projects, 73 Power price agreements (PPAs), electricity pricing lock, 81 Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), 65, 249, 295, 317 execution, 27 levelized US utility-scale PPA prices, 28f signing, 47–48 Power-to-ammonia energy storage, 213 Power-to-gas energy storage, 212 Powerwall, integration, 149 339 PPAs See Power price agreements; Power Purchase Agreements PrEView (GM), 122 Production Tax Credit (PTC), 53, 70, 317 extension, 71 Pruitt, Scott confirmation, 275 lawsuits, 275 Paris Climate Agreement opposition, 276 PTC See Production Tax Credit P-type semiconductor, 19 Public Service Company of New Mexico, 234 Public utility commissions (PUCs), regulation, 201 Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA), 66–67, 317 PUCs See Public utility commissions Puget Sound, cleaning program (cessation), 276 Pumped hydroelectricity, 317 energy storage form, 210 Pumped hydro storage, 210, 246 Punkin Center, 256–257 PURPA See Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act Q Quantum dot solar cell (QDSC) architecture, 87f technology, 86–87 Quarterly global EV sales, 180f 340 R Rate of Change of Frequency (ROCOF), 245–247 generator tolerance, increase, 246 Reflectance efficiency, 317 measure, 21 Regional Electric Vehicle West plan, 175 Regional transmission organizations (RTOs), 256, 317 Renewable energy compromise, 70–72 costs, reduction, 299 millennium ushers, 9–16 transition (ArcelorMittal), 280 waste, 205 Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-EnergienGesetz) (EEG), 59–60, 317 Renewable generation capacity additions, 78f Renewable portfolio standards (RPS), 65, 76f, 317 Renewables growth, energy source (contrast), 286–287 perspective (Pennsylvania), 242 rise, 256 Residential buildings, energy storage (impact), 227–229 Residential energy storage, 227 Residential scale solar, installed cost (contrast), 54f Residential solar growth, deceleration, 63–65 INDEX REV See Extended-range vehicle Rice, Isaac, 111 Riker, Andrew L., 111 Roadster (2006), 121, 131–132, 132f Roadster (2020), 154f Roadster 3.0 (2014), 132 Roadster Sport (2010), 131–132 Robo, Jim, 225–226 Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), natural gas-fired generating plant investigation, 293–294 ROCOF See Rate of Change of Frequency Roof-mounted arrays, prohibition, 33 RPS See Renewable portfolio standards RTOs See Regional transmission organizations S Sabatier, Paul, 212 Salom, Pedro G., 111 Salt River Project, battery system (installation), 250 Samuelsson, Hakan, 169 San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), problem, 258–259 San Francisco, solar panel ordinance, 74–75 Santee Cooper, 255 Saudi Aramco, 188, 191, 264 SCANA Corporation, 255 Schumer, Chuck, 73 Schwarzenegger, Arnold, INDEX Schweigger, Johann S.C., 102 Scion xB, 121 Sebelius, Kathleen, 10 Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan, 130, 133, 136 Section 201 tariff (Trump), negative impact, 299 SEIA See Solar Energy Industry Association Selenium/platinum solar cell, efficiency, Self-propelled vehicles, history, 98–106 SemaConnect, 173 Semi (Tesla), 149–155, 150f interior, 151f orders, 151–153 reservation fees, 151–153 Semiconductor, 317 industry, doping processes (usage), 21 integrated circuits, fabrication, 10 markets, demand, 14 Moore’s law, 222 properties, retention, 19 solid-state semiconductor devices, photovoltaic effect, use, 14 wafers, cost (reduction), 25 Sempra Energy, 257–258 Seni Om Sed Parade, EV car (appearance), 112 Shale oil production, US development, 161 Sharpless, Jananne, 121 341 Siemens & Halske, electric public transportation focus, 110 Siemens, Werner, 106 Silicon purification, 24–25 wafers, creation, 20–21 SIR See Synchronous inertial response Skylab, US launch, Small-scale electric car (Stratingh), 105f SMES See Superconducting magnetic energy storage Smith, Roger, 120–121 Smog, 317 problem (California), 121 SNSP See System nonsynchronous penetration Soft costs, 26, 318 Solar access, average, 39 Solar cell, 318 cost, decline, 24–30 dye-sensitized solar cell architecture, 86f efficiencies, 21–23 gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cell architecture, 89f Kyocera production, 8–9 manufacturing process, 20–21 organic solar cell architecture, 88f perovskite solar cell architecture, 90f quantum dot solar cell (QDSC) architecture, 87f 342 Solar cell (continued ) technology first generation solar cell technology, 84 future, 83–90 Solar City, 63 SolarCity Corporation, 25, 127 Tesla acquisition, 148–149 Solar electricity prices, decline, 29f Solar electric system, installation, 49 Solar energy electricity generation, disruption process, 91–92 future, 69 history, system leasing, 47 workings, 18 Trump administration, impact, 72–74 Solar Energy Industries Association, solar project installation analysis, 9–10 Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA), 52 rooftop solar marketing, 62 solar installation prediction, 54 utility-scale definition, 56 Solar Energy Research Facility, NREL establishment, Solar generation systems, parity, 233–234 Solar growth, 69–70 Solar Heat and Its Industrial Applications (Mouchot), INDEX Solar installation incentives, disappearance, 228 Solar investment, impact, 75, 77 Solar markets, demand, 14 Solar module efficiency, 23 temperature derating factor, 39 Solar panels cost, decrease, 192 DC voltage generation, 41 manufacturing, 23–24 price (in watts), 24f San Francisco ordinance, 74–75 Solar plant, construction cost, 295 Solar plummets, cost, 54–55 Solar power building-integrated photovoltaics, 82–83 corporate America deployment, 60–62 disruption, 248–250 global growth, 80–82 Solar-produced electricity, 26 Solar project developers, approach, 81 Solar PV electric grid (connection), 67 systems, impact, 228 Solar Radiation Data Manual, 36–37 Solar roofing tiles, 127 Solar Roofs Initiative, 9–10 Solar shingles, 82, 83f Solar system adequacy, determination, 46–48 INDEX DC electricity generation, 36 design, 40–43 grid-tied solar system, 41f selection, 31 self-construction, 48–50 size, calculation, 39–40 Soldering, 23, 318 Solor motor, popularity (Mouchot), 5–6 Solyndra, 12–14 Southern California Edison, power purchase, 58 Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas), problem, 257–258 Southern Company, Vogtle cost, 253–254 SpaceX, 129, 145, 265 Spark EV (Chevrolet), 125 Spring-powered stage car (da Vinci), 101f Stand-alone system, inverter (requirement), 46 State-owner oil companies, stranded asset risk (increase), 196 Steam locomotive, 110, 318 Steam-powered cars, 114 Steam-powered generators, development, 106 Steam turbine, design, 101 Stevin, Simon, 98–99 Strahan, Susan, 274 Stranded assets, risk (increase), 196 Stratingh, Sibrandus, 103 small-scale electric car, 105f 343 “Stream Protection Rule,” 275 Sturgeon, William, 102 Sunlight, amount, 36–39 SunPower Corporation, 25 solar module efficiency, 23 Sunraycer (General Motors), 120–121 Supercharger station (Tesla), 140–141, 140f, 229–230, 318 Superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES), 213 Supply, demand (matching), 245–247 Surplus oil/gas production, private sector control, 196 Sustainability mobility, 137, 318 Sustainable economy, transition, 296 Swanson, Richard, 25 Swanson’s law, 25, 26f, 318 Synchronous generators, 318 battery storage, contrast, 247–248 frequency fault response, comparison, 247 Synchronous inertial response (SIR), 247 Synchronous inertia, sources, 246 Synthetic inertia (emulated inertia), 318 increase, 246–247 Sysco, Semi (Tesla) orders, 153 System availability derating factor, 39 System congestion, 207 344 System nonsynchronous penetration (SNSP), 246–247 System power, availability, 269 T Takashi, Kita, 84 Target, solar PV operation, 60 Technology, laws (Fessler), 74, 189–191, 195, 202, 286, 290, 298, 314 Tesla Autopilot, 150 Daimler AG, relationship, 137 early days, 128–130 energy generation/storage, integration, 148–149 extended-range vehicle (REV), 133 Founders Series models, 154 HEPA filter, usage, 143–144 Hoerbiger, lawsuit, 143 investors, 129–130 Master Plan (2006), 130–131 Master Plan, Part Deux, 148–155 Model 3, 144–148, 173, 265 glass roof, 147f initial delivery event, 145f interior, 146f Model S sedan, 134f building, 133–141 frames, robot welding/assembly, 138f NHTSA 5-star safety rating, 139 Model X, 98, 141–144, 142f, 229 INDEX P85D battery pack, 217 Roadster (2006), 121, 131–132, 132f Roadster (2020), 154f Roadster 3.0, 132 Roadster Sport (2010), 131–132 Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan, 130, 133, 136 Semi, 149–155, 150f interior, 151f reservation fees, 151–153 solar roof tiles, 82, 83f SpaceX, 129, 145, 265 supercharger station (Arlington, Texas), 140–141, 140f, 229–230, 318 vehicle construction (China), 155–156 Whitestar, 133 Texas, energy supply disruption, 235 Textured silicon surface, scanning electron microscope photograph, 22f Thermal power plants, 292, 318 Thermal synchronous generator, 318 operation, 246 Thermodynamic efficiency limit, 22 Thermostat, replacement, 291 Thin-film silicon (TF-Si) technology, 11 Thin-film solar cells, 318 development, 11 Three-wheeled EV (Volk), 108 INDEX Timeshift (ArcelorMittal project), 280–281 Titanium dioxide (TiO2 ) layer, 90 nanoparticle coating, 86 Topaz Solar Farm, 59, 85 Total global solar installation (megawatt measurement), 24f Total SA, proactive movement, 194 Total US installed PV, contrast, 54f Transistor, 318 transistor-based electric car, 119–120 Transmission infrastructure, 318 expenditures, 252–253 Transmission, regional transmission organizations (RTOs), 256 Trevithick, Richard, 101 Trouvé, Gustave, 108–109 Trump, Donald American business, contrast, 238–239 energy plan, impact (absence), 75 environmental/climate change-focused actions, negative impact, 275–277 EPA budget cuts, 276 global warming skeptic, 274–277 solar energy perspective, 72–74 345 Turbine, 319 combined-cycle, natural gas-fired turbines (CCGTs), 292–293 gas turbine demand, 226 plant, 224 residential-size wind turbine, difference, 55 shaft, power, steam turbine design, 101 power, 58 steam turbine/generator, power, 214 water, release/flow, 210 tZERO (car), 129–130 U Ultimate efficiency, 22, 319 Ultraviolet (UV), 319 radiation, 273 Uninterruptable power supply (UPS), flywheel energy storage system (usage), 212 United Parcel Service (UPS), Semi (Tesla) orders, 153 United States alternative fuel corridor map, 176f annual solar PV installations, 66f crude production, 161f distributed solar PV installed capacity, 64f energy independence, 285 energy supply, disruption, 233 346 United States (continued ) photovoltaic solar resource, 37f power grid, 292 residential energy consumption, decline, 288 solar PV installations, 70f UPS See Uninterruptable power supply U.S Solar Resource Maps (NREL), 36 US Steel, environmental consciousness, 280 Utilities power generation source, 266–271 strategic opportunity, 264–266 Utility-scale CSP systems, advantages, 58 current state, 62–63 future, 63–67 Greentech Media/SEIA definitions, contrast, 56 history, 57–60 installations, 51 project, 56 associated PPA, 55 PV solar, installation, 299 system, 56 Utility-scale solar, 63, 319 defining, 55–57 farm, 41 increase, 65–66 Utility scale solar installed cost, contrast, 54f Utility-scale solar market, increase, 66 system, 51 INDEX V V2G See Vehicle-to-grid “Valley of death,” 25 Value of solar (VOS), 319 rate, 79–80 van Beurden, Ben, 195 Vanguard I, US launch, VantagePoint Venture Partners, 130 Variable power demand, impact, 207 Vatican, solar energy systems, 10 Vehicle-Grid-Integration (VGI), 271 Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) power, 266–271 markets, 269 schematic, 267f Verbiest, Ferdinand, 101 VGI See Vehicle-Grid-Integration Vineyard Wind, 312 Vogtle Units 3/4, 253 Volk, Magnus, 107 Electrically Propelled Dog Cart, 107 three-wheeled EV, 108f Volks Electric Railway, opening, 108 Volkswagen (VW), electric vehicles (EVs), 169–170 Volt (Chevrolet), 125, 167 Volta, 173 Volvo, electric vehicles (EVs), 168–169 von Holzhausen, Franz, 133, 141, 144 347 INDEX von Siemens, Werner, von Vigevano, Guido, 99 battle car, 100f VOS See Value of solar W Walmart Semi (Tesla) orders, 151–152 solar panel installation, 60–61, 305 Ward Electric Car Company, 107 Wardle, Geoff, 146 Ward, Radcliffe, 107 Warehousing, importance, 61 Watson, John, 194 “We Are Still In” declaration, 239–240 “We Are Still In” group, launch, 240–242 Weber, Thomas, 137 We Energies, 234–235 Western Electric Company, Westinghouse Electric Company, bankruptcy, 255–256 White House, solar panel/water heating additions, 10 Whitestar (Tesla), 133 Who Killed the Electric Car, 121 Wideband radar system, 143, 319 Wind chariot (land yacht) (Zeilwagen), 99f Wind generation systems, parity, 233–234 Wind power, disruption, 248–250 Wind producers, Production Tax Credit, 53 Winton Engine Company, 118 Wisconsin, energy supply disruption, 234–235 World Solar Challenge, 120 X Xcel Energy, applications, 78–79 Y Yuba City Energy Center, 225 Z Zeilwagen See Wind chariot Zero-carbon EVs, 282 Zero Emissions Mandate, 121–122 Zero emission vehicles (ZEVs), 122–123 CARB mandate, 124 Zetsche, Dieter, 167 Zince-platinum battery cell, 104–105 ZSW See Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg .. .The Energy Disruption Triangle Three Sectors That Will Change How We Generate, Use, and Store Energy David C Fessler Copyright © 2019 by John Wiley... Data Names: Fessler, Dave, 1953- author Title: The energy disruption triangle : three sectors that will change how we generate, use, and store energy / Dave Fessler Description: Hoboken, New... it the Energy Disruption Triangle It’s going to completely change the way we generate, use, and store energy It’s a “black swan” event that few people see coming The disruption coming to energy