Economic doctoral thesis: Impact of Microcredit on the Income of Poor Households in the Southeast Region

The objective of this thesis is to verify the hypothesis of the microcredit impact on income for poor households and to identify factors affecting the access to microcredit of the poor households in order to find solutions to increase income through increasing access to microcredit for them.

THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY NGUYEN HONG THU THESIS SUMMARY IMPACT OF MICROCREDIT ON THE INCOME OF POOR HOUSEHOLDS IN THE SOUTHEAST REGION ECONOMIC DOCTORAL THESIS MAJOR: FINANCE - BANKING CODE: 34 02 01 HO CHI MINH CITY, 2018 i RELATED STUDY WORKS I The scientific study topics Nguyen Hong Thu et al., (2016) Solutions to improve the performance of microfinance in Binh Duong Approved on Aug 19, 2016 (Chairman of scientific research topic at grassroots levels) Nguyen Hong Thu et al., (2017) Factors affecting the income of poor households through microcredit activities in Binh Duong Approved on Oct 31, 2017 (Chairman of scientific research topic at grassroots levels) II The scientific articles published in journals Nguyen Hong Thu, Pham Cong Luan and Tran Thi Cam Van (2017) Poverty reduction in Binh Duong from the perspective of microfinance Journal of Thu Dau Mot University No 02 (33), Apr 2017 Nguyen Hong Thu (2017) Social capital with access to micro-credit of rural households in the Southeast region Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Mar 2017 Nguyen Hong Thu and Nguyen Van Diep (2017) Impact of resources on income of rural households in Binh Duong province Journal of Economic Management No 81 (Mar + Apr 2017) Nguyen Hong Thu (2017) Microcredit with income of the poor in rural Southeast region Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Apr 2017 Nguyen Hong Thu (2017) Access to microcredit of households in the lacquer village in Binh Duong Banking Technology Magazine No 134, May 2017 Nguyen Hong Thu (2018) The role of microcredit in livelihoods of poor households in the Southeast region Journal of Economic Management, No 88 (Apr + May 2018) ii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION OF STUDY OVERVIEW 1.1 The necessity of study topic Along with the activities of microfinance, microcredit contributes to the practical effect of poverty reduction It is an important tool in the fight against the poverty, especially in developing countries (Humle and Mosley, 1996; Shaw, 2004) In spite of that, this conclusion is still a matter continuing to be discussed and increasingly attracted many different opinions of researchers, with each study, the authors have introduced, analyzed different aspects and fields There are some options that impact relation of microcredit on income is statistically insignificant (Sen, 2008; Rukiye, 2012) or other options showed that they did not find the impacts of microcredit on the income of households (Diadup and Zeller, 2001); the study of Morduch (1998) found that credit from the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh reduced the vulnerability rather than poverty reduction and the study of Coleman (1999) showed that they found only a significant impact of microcredit on the welfare of households in Thailand Up to now, the government in most countries has recognized the active role of microcredit to poverty reduction, its science research activities on microcredit are increasingly attracting attention from many experts as well as scholars in the country and abroad In order to continue the inheritance, to understand the impact of microcredit on the income of poor households and especially in the Southeast region, there is no research conducted yet, but in this study, theoretical framework is formed on the background of theories, the analysis based on the practical characteristics of the region to clarify the objectives set out in the study Before this context, the study proposes the key issues that need to be explored, that are (1) to check the theoretical point that microcredit affecting poverty reduction through income factor of the households is necessary, (2) to improve income for poor households, it is needed to improve the access to microcredit to the households and (3) how to improve the access to microcredit to the poor to have additional capital to improve their income? Therefore, the study topic needed to be implemented is “Impact of Microcredit on the Income of Poor Households in the Southeast Region” 1.2 Overview of the study topic As part of the microfinance activity, microcredit is recognized contributing to the enhancement of self-reliance and capacity to create product value, opening opportunities for the poor to develop their livelihoods to improve and enhance the quality of life In Vietnam, the famous typical studies of authors such as Nguyen Kim Anh et al., (2011) with the study of microcredit to the poor in Vietnam - Verification and comparison, or a series of other studies on the poor such as evaluation of poverty reduction policies in Ho Chi Minh City (Phung Duc Tung et al., 2013), evaluation of poverty reduction models of foreign partners in Vietnam (Nguyen Duc Nhat et al., 2013), Most of the studies have high consensus on the effectiveness of microcredit with the poverty reduction war of the country The studies above outlined the basic modes of operation of microcredit both in the country and abroad, evaluated and analyzed the impact of microcredit on the ability to generate income from customers However, these studies have just mentioned overall the impact of microcredit on income The objective of this thesis is to clarify the issues mentioned in this study and practical application in the Southeast region 1.3 Objectives and questions 1.3.1 General objectives The objective of this thesis is to verify the hypothesis of the microcredit impact on income for poor households and to identify factors affecting the access to microcredit of the poor households in order to find solutions to increase income through increasing access to microcredit for them 1.3.2 Specific objectives Based on the general objectives of the research, the thesis sets out three specific objectives that need to be addressed as follows:  Study the impact of microcredit on the income of poor households in the Southeast region  Understand the impact of factors on access to microcredit of the poor households  Recommend the solutions contributing to income increasing for the poor households through enhancing the access to microcredit and other non-financial activities for poor households in the region 1.3.3 Questions for study To achieve the target set out, the thesis shall answer the following questions:  Does microcredit affect the income of poor households? And how the levels of impact are?  How the access to microcredit of the poor households is? What solutions should be taken to increase the access to microcredit for poor households?  What policy recommendations contribute to increase the income for poor households through microcredit activities in the Southeast region? 1.4 Object and scope of study 1.4.1 Object of study Originating from the urgency of study and practice in the study area, the thesis determining the objects to be clarified in this study is the income of poor households (specifically, the income of the microcredit borrowers and the non-microcredit borrowers) 1.4.2 Scope of study 1.4.2.1 Scope of space Provinces of the Southeast region, including Binh Duong, Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai and Tay Ninh province 1.4.2.2 Scope of time Studying to understand and analyze the secondary data sources from relevant local reports in the period of 2011 - 2017 Time for survey implementation is 2016 1.5 Approach, study method, study data sources 1.5.1 Approach The study uses the systematic approach The study uses qualitative in combination with quantitative research method 1.5.2 Analysis method of the study The study uses the statistical, analysis method of related primary and secondary data The method interviews 15 experts The survey method using semi-structured questionnaire with the surveyed subjects as poor households in the area 1.5.3 Source of study data Secondary data source Primary data source 1.6 New points and contributions of the thesis 1.6.1 Contribution in terms of practicality Firstly, the thesis has practical application in the current period when the whole country has made a re-evaluation of the poverty reduction and is stepping into a new phase with the application of the multidimensional poverty (period 20162020) Secondly, the thesis has proved that microcredit plays an important contribution to poverty reduction strategy, especially in a Southeast region with a high economic growth rate in the Southern key economic region of Vietnam 1.6.2 Contribution in terms of academically Firstly, the thesis summarizes the assessment comprehensively to the impact of microcredit on the poor household incomes and affirms that microcredit is an effective tool in poverty reduction strategy Although there are still many controversial discussions about the effectiveness of microcredit, within the scope of this research, the thesis contributes to sum up relevant theoretical foundations The summing-up is meant to help the next researchers access the credit-income theory, the theory to access microcredit, and the statistical implications with the impact of microcredit, the impact of non-financial activities affecting the poor household income Secondly, it compares and asserts that there is a difference in income between the two groups of microcredit borrowers and non-microcredit borrowers Particularly, the group of microcredit borrowers has the average income higher than the group of non-borrowers Thirdly, together with the microcredit activities, non-financial activities are organized in parallel with the process of deploying financial resources to poor households, which is assessed to be an efficient complementary activity, contributing to improve the performance of microcredit with poverty reduction This research assumes that non-financial activity influences the ability to raise income to poor households Fourthly, the social capital (SC), which currently has many studies to analyze the influence of social capital on the participation in credit services in general, but the understanding of the impact of social security on the access to microcredit in the previous studies have not paid much attention; the thesis confirms that social capital is an issue that is necessary to promote and expand during the performance of poverty reduction strategy 1.7 The structure of the thesis The thesis consists of chapters with the following contents: Chapter 1: Introduction to study overview Chapter 2: Overview of theoretical basis on microcredit to income of poor households Chapter 3: Research method Chapter 4: Microcredit activities in the area and test results Chapter 5: Conclusions of solutions CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF THEORETICAL BASIS ON MICROCREDIT TO INCOME OF POOR HOUSEHOLDS 2.1 Micro credit 2.1.1 Concept The term of “microcredit” shall be defined as “Microcredit is the provision of small loans to poor, low-income borrowers to help them create the business, build the asset, and increase the income” 2.1.2 The role of microcredit for poverty reduction Firstly, starting from the initiation by Prof Muhamad Yunus from very small loans, but it has helped thousands of poor workers have the opportunity to open the door to earn the living Although it is small loans, it comes to them when they need it most, as a “lifebuoy” to help them overcome difficulties and obstacles In Vietnam, the small lending activity is provided by MFIs, financial institutions, NGOs or social organizations in the formal, semi-formal and informal area (Nguyen Kim Anh et al., 2011) Up to now, it still cannot deny the absence of the role of microcredit for campaigns against poverty, especially in developing countries 2.1.3 Overview of microcredit activities in countries around the world  Operation of Grameen Bank model in Bangladesh (GB)  Microcredit operation in Thailand  Microcredit operations in India  Microcredit operations in Indonesia  Microcredit operations in Canada 2.2 Poverty 2.2.1 Concept Poverty: The World Bank (2011) considers that poverty is divided into different levels: absolute poverty, relative poverty and poverty with minimal demands as follows: + Absolute poverty: is the status that a part of the population in the poor area is unable to satisfy the minimum demands of life: eating, wearing, living, traveling, ect + Relative poverty: is the status that a part of the population in the poor area has the living below the average living standard of the considered community and locality + Poverty with minimum demands: is the status that a part of the population has the minimum subsistence to maintain their livelihoods, such as enough food, clothing, living and some daily activities but at a minimum level 2.2.2 Poverty line of some countries in the world The popular standard of calories/day in some ASEAN countries is as follows: In India, the standard is 2250 calories/person/day In Bangladesh, the standard is 2100 calories/person/day In Indonesia: In the early 1980s, the consumption of calories was 2100 calories/person/day as a standard to determine the boundaries between rich and poor In China: In 1990, the consumption of calories was 2150 calories/person/day Industrialized countries in Europe: 2570 calories/person/day 2.2.3 Poverty line of Vietnam In the 1990s, the poverty line in Vietnam was defined as: households with income per capita in rural and mountainous areas are from 45,000 VND/person/month (540,000 VND/person/year) downwards In rural and delta areas, the households with average income per capita was VND 70,000/person/month (840,000 VND/person/year) In urban areas, the income per capita was 100,000 VND/person/month (1,200,000 VND/person/year) In 2006, the poverty line in rural areas was 200,000 VND/person/month and in urban areas was 260,000 VND/person/month In the period of 2011-2015, the poverty line was 500,000 VND/person/month (urban area) and 400,000 VND/person/month (rural area) 2.3 Income 2.3.1 Concept The General Statistics Office (GSO) (2011) defines that: Income is the total amount of money that a person or family earned in a day, a week or a month, or more specifically, all that a person earned when devoting the work force properly, so it is called income The monthly income per capita is calculated by dividing the total income in year of the household by the number of household members and dividing by 12 months 10 Selected variable Hypothesis Basis for variable selection [X1] QM_VON Bateman’s Theory (2010) and Janvry’s Theory (1995) [X2] TH_VAY Brown’s studies (2010); Islam and Ahmed (2010); [X3] L_SUAT H1 Vitor et al., (2012); Ibrahim and Bauer (2013), Banerjee and Dulfo (2016); Alhassan and Akuduga [X4] MD_VAY (2012) Vitor et al., (2012) [X5] Dinh Phi Ho and Dong Duc (2015) S_PTHUOC [X6] World Bank (2012); Ismail and Yussof’s Theory QM_LDONG (2010); Dinh Phi Ho and Dong Duc (2015) H2 [X7] V_LAM World Bank (2012); Ismail and Yussof’s Theory (2010); Dinh Phi Ho and Dong Duc (2015) Janvry’s Theory (1995), Dinh Phi Ho and Dong Duc [X8] R_RO (2015) H3 Manganhele (2010), Phung Duc Tung et al., (2013); Banerjee and Dulfo (2016); Boamah and Alam (2016); [X9] CS_TPC Nguyen Duc Nhat et al., (2013); Alhassan and Akuduga (2012) Source: Summarize from theory foundations and previous studies 3.1.3.2 Microcredit access model (MH2) 24 Social capital (hypothesis H4): Participating in social capital, frequency of participating in social capital Household characteristics (hypothesis H5): Income, employment Access to microcre dit Environmental factors and preferential credit policies of the locality (hypothesis H6): The housing location of the households, living area and preferential policies of the locality Figure 3.2 Microcredit access model Table 3.2 Summarize the foundations for developing variables for the microcredit access model Selected variable Hypothesis Basis for variable selection [X1] VON_XH Masud and Islam (2014); Putnam (1995); Baurm and [X2] Ziersch (2003); Stone (2001); Kilpatrick (2002); Ajam TS_TGVXH H4 (2009); Lin et al., (20010); Okten (2004) AFD (2008); Tran Ai Ket and Huynh Trung Thoi [X3] V_LAM (2013); Phan Dinh Khoi (2013) Brown (2010); Armed et al., (2011); Vitor et al., H5 [X4] T_NHAP (2012); Ibrahim and Bauer (2013) Mohannan (2005), Phan Dinh Khoi (2013) Tran Ai Ket and Huynh Trung Thoi (2013) 25 Le Khuong Ninh (2016); Dinh Phi Ho (2012), Banerjee [X5].V_TRI and Dulfo (2016) and characteristics of the study area World Bank (2012), Le Khuong Ninh (2016), Nguyen H6 [X6] K_VUC Trong Hoai (2005) Phan Dinh Khoi (2013) and characteristics of the study area Phung Duc Tung et al., (2012), Boamah and Alam [X7] CS_TC (2016); Nguyen Duc Nhat et al., (2013); Alhassan and Akuduga (2012) Source: Summarize proposals from study theory foundation and previous studies 3.2 Measurement of concepts in study models  Model 1: The impact model of microcredit on income change Table 3.3: Measurement of variables in the model of microcredit impacts income Measurement Sign expectat ion [X1] QM_VON Representing the amount of loan (Unit: mil dong) + [X2] TH_VAY Term of loan use (unit: month) + [X3] MD_VAY Loan purpose + [X4] L_SUAT Interest rate by month (unit:%/month) - No I Contents INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: The risks in the past years of the household, [X5] R_RO value = yes and vice versa = - Number of children and adults outside the working age (children under 15 years old, older than 60 years for men and 55 years for women), [X6] S_PTHUOC [X7] QM_LDONG (unit: person) - Number of main employees in the household generating income for the family during the past 26 + months (unit: person) Employment of the main decision maker/ householder in the family, value = employment [X8] V_LAM (within months) and vice versa = + The support policies for non-financial activities such as creating a livelihood environment to help the poor create jobs, train to transfer of science and [X9] CS_PTC technology knowledge, cultivating and breeding knowledge, develop the business plans, + labor and occupation, value = have support policy and vice versa = DEPENDENT VARIABLE (Y): The income per capita is measured by the total income of the poor household divided by the number of household members (mil II dong)  Model 2: Microcredit access model Table 3.4 Measurement of variables in the study of microcredit approach study model Variable name Sign expectation Dependent variable: Binary Microcredit Measurement variable, value=1 if it participates in microcredit borrowing and value=0, by contrast Independent variables: + [X1].VON_XH Households participating in activities in the locality, value = and vice versa = + [X2] TS_TGVXH Number of times (frequency) participating in activities/last months (unit: times) + Householder or main decision maker in the household, value = means to have employment and vice versa = [X3].V_LAM 27 [X4].T_NHAP + Income per capita/year (mil dong) - Housing location of the household compared to the [X5].V_TRI main road (inter-commune traffic) (unit: km) + Living area of household: Urban area, value = and [X6].K_VUC vice versa = [X7].CS_TC Preferential financial policies of the locality, value = means get preferential policy and = 0, by contrast 3.3 Study design 3.3.1 General overview of the study 3.3.1.1 Qualitative research method Qualitative research method performs to examine summarily the related theoretical documents and studies before forming the theoretical framework of the study and establishing the study hypotheses, forming study models for the thesis using the method of field observation, interviewing experts performing poverty reduction in the locality as well as the staff performing credit policy 3.3.1.2 Quantitative research method Quantitative research method is performed based on the study hypotheses of the qualitative method and rechecks the hypotheses outlined in the study through the econometric model 3.4 Sample size determination With the total number of poor households in the area of 33,159 households, the sample size determination following Taro (1967) suggested that the minimum sample size for the study should be obtained using the following formula: n In which: N  Ne2 n: Number of samples to be determined, 28 N: 33,159 poor households (overall), e: accuracy level for the standard error: +/-5% (0.05) Therefore, the sample size needs to be achieved at least under the Taro’s formula: n = 395 households 3.5 Process of sample selection and study data collection 3.5.1 Sample selection To conduct the study topic, the topic searches and selects relevant sources Conduct survey on access to microcredit of poor households in the Southeast region The steps for conducting observation sampling are as follows: Step Select the list of poor households in each locality Step Allocate the observation sample Step Conduct the sample survey (preliminary investigation) Step Complete the study questionnaire Step The trained staffs conduct sampling Step Enter data into statistical software, encryption, clean data 3.5.2 Preliminary investigation Conduct a preliminary investigation and adjust the study questionnaire 3.6 Conclusions of Chapter Chapter presents arguments of the theoretical foundations forming the theoretical framework for study and the establishment of hypotheses for study, the establishment of study models, the necessary tests for study model analysis, determine sample size, construct the study variables and measure the variables included in the study model 29 CHAPTER 4: MICRO-CREDIT ACTIVITIES IN THE AREA AND TEST RESULTS 4.1 Overview of the socio-economic characteristics of the Southeast region It is a dynamic economic region with high, sustainable economic growth and leading in the cause of industrialization and modernization of the country As the leading economic development area of the country, it is the area with role as bridge to the Mekong Delta and the Central Highlands The economy in the Southeast region has rapidly developed in terms of industry and services with most industrial enterprises and focused the most in the whole country with all kinds of industries The rate of poor households in the region is the lowest in the country Table 4.1 Rate of poor households in the region Surveyed provinces Dong Nai Total number of households 775,139 Total number of Poverty rate (%) poor households 7,085 0.91 Binh Phuoc 237,728 14,627 6.15 Tay Ninh 291,830 6,117 2.1 Binh Duong 284343 0 Ba Ria - Vung Tau 260,797 4,986 1.91 Ho Chi Minh City 1,962,121 344 0.02 TOTAL 3,811,958 33,159 Source: MOLISA (2016) 30 Table 4.2 Summarize the poverty line standards of each locality Provinces Poverty line of Poverty line of the locality Source the Central Compari sion Period 2011-2013: (According to the - Rural: 800,000 Decision No By VND/person/month 49/2010/QD-UBND times Binh -Urban: 1,000,000 dated Dec 22, 2010) Duong VND/person/month Period 2014-2015: -Rural: 1,000,00 Rural: 400,000 VND/person/mon th VND/person/month -Urban: 1,100,000 (According to the Decision No 51/2013/QD-UBND dated Dec 27, 2013 VND/person/month Urban: 500,000 Binh VND/person/mon Phuoc th Tay Ninh No change - - (According to the Period 2012 – 2015 (According to the Decision No - Rural: 521,000 Decision No By 1.3 09/2011/QD-TTg VND/person/month 54/2012/QD-UBND times dated Jan 30, - Urban: 651,000 dated Nov 27, 2012 2011 of the Prime VND/person/month Minister) Period 2010 – 2015: (According to the Ba Ria - - Rural: 700,000 Decision No Vung Tau VND/person/month 12/2010/NQ-HDND - Urban: 900,000 dated Jul 14, 2010 VND/person/month by the People’s Council of Ba Ria Vung Tau province) 31 By 1.75 times Dong Nai Period 2011-2015: According to the - Rural: 650,000 Decision No VND/person/month 176/2010/NQ- By 1.6 - Urban: 850,000 HDND dated Jul 2, times VND/person/month 2010 Period 2014-2015: According to the - Rural: 1,000,000 Decision No VND/person/month 126/2014/NQ- - Urban 1,200,000 HDND dated Sep VND/person/month 26, 2014 Period 2010-2014, poverty line (According to the By of Ho Chi Minh City is: Decision No times 12,000,000 23/2010/QD-UBND No Minh VND/person/month dated Mar 29, 2010 distinctio City Period 2014-2015, poverty line (According to the Ho Chi of Ho Chi Minh City is: Decision No 16,000,000 03/2014/QD-UBND VND/person/month dated Jan 14, 2014 Source: Summarize statistics from the Decisions of the provinces and cities on the Issuance of poverty line and near poverty line in period of 2011-2015 4.2 Overview and describe survey data in the locality 4.3 Overview of microcredit activity in Vietnam and in the region 4.4 There are difficulties and causes of difficulties and shortcomings in poverty reduction in the region 4.5 Statistics describe the variables in the study model 32 n between inner city or suburban 4.6 Test the study results 4.6.1 Results of the impact model of microcredit to income 4.6.1.1 Test the study model Table 4.9 The regression coefficient of the microcredit model on income (Constant) Unstandardized Coefficients Std B Error 6.02 1.91 [X1] QM_VON 0.37 0.10 [X2] TH_VAY 0.03 [X3] MD_VAY Standardized Coefficients t Sig Beta Collinearity Statistics Tolerance VIF 3.16 0.00 0.41 3.66 0.00*** 0.53 1.89 0.14 0.02 0.19 0.85 0.46 2.18 0.55 0.76 0.06 0.72 0.47 0.94 1.06 [X4] L_SUAT -0.30 0.41 -0.06 -0.72 0.47 0.89 1.12 [X5] R_RO -1.68 0.93 -0.18 -1.80 0.08* 0.69 1.45 [X6] S_PTHUOC -0.82 0.29 -0.24 -2.85 0.06* 0.93 1.07 [X7] QM_LD 1.58 0.89 0.16 1.78 0.08* 0.80 1.24 [X8] VIECLAM 1.04 0.79 0.11 1.30 0.20 0.90 1.11 [X9] CS_PTC 1.77 0.70 0.23 2.53 0.01** 0.83 1.21 Durbin-Watson : 1.670 R2 Square : 0.47 Sig.: 0.00 F: 8.87 (*), )(**), (***) with significance level are 10%, 5% and 1% respectively Through the analysis of model tests, it determined variables including capital size [X1].QM_VON, number of dependents in the family [X6] S_PTHUOC, labor size [X7].QM_LD and non-financial operating policies [X9].CS_PTC that had significant statistical effect on the Income variable of poor households in the region 33 4.6.1.2 Discuss the result of regression coefficient M1: Impact of microcredit on poor household income To discuss the study results of model 1: The model evaluates the impact of microcredit on income of poor households From the Unstandardized Coef., evaluate the effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable From the results of the study model summarized in Table 4.11, the significant variables include capital size, number of dependents, labor size, and policies Table 4.11 Summary of the impact of microcredit on income Standardized Coefficients Beta 0.41 Independent variables [X1] QM_VON Sig Impact assessment 0.00 [X6] S_PTHUOC -0.24 0.01 [X7] QM_LDONG 0.16 0.08 [X9] CS_PTC 0,23 0.01 4.6.1.3 Assume the difference in income between two groups of households By T-test, the results show that microcredit borrowers have higher income than non-borrowers and the study results show that there is a similarity with the study by Dinh Phi Ho and Dong Duc (2015) The income of microcredit borrowers has the average income higher than that of non-borrowers (0.49 million dong) Table 4.12 Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances F Per capita income/ year Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed 10.228 t-test for Equality of Means Sig 0.001 t df Sig (2tailed) Mean Std Error Difference Difference -1.729 598 0.084 -0.488 0.282 -1.613 300.616 0.108 -0.488 0.302 34 4.6.2 Test results of microcredit access model 4.6.2.1 Test results Table 4.13 Binary Logistic regression results 95% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper B S.E Wald Sig Exp(B) [X1].V_XH 1.52 0.86 3.14 0.08* 4.57 0.85 24.50 [X2].TS_TGIA 1.64 0.84 3.80 0.05** 5.15 0.99 26.76 [X3].VTDLY -0.87 0.46 3.52 0.06* 0.42 0.17 1.04 [X4].K_VUC 0.87 0.80 1.18 0.28 2.39 0.49 11.54 [X5].T_NHAP 0.37 0.17 4.63 0.03** 1.45 1.03 2.04 [X6].VIECLAM 0.44 1.52 0.08 0.77 1.55 0.08 30.50 [X7].CS_TC 0.28 0.78 0.13 0.72 1.33 0.29 6.13 Constant -6.32 3.18 3.94 0.05 0.00 R2 – Nagelkerke: 0.484 -2 Log likelihood: 49.210 Omnibus - Model (Sig): 0.001 (*), (**) with significance level are 10% and 5% respectively 4.6.2.2 Discuss the result of regression coefficient M2: Microcredit access model According to Agresti (2007), the regression coefficients should be discussed according to the probability of occurrence It assumes the initial probability that the household accessing microcredit is 10% (P 0=10%) Due to factor Xi impacts, the probability of household accessing microcredit is P Thus: P1  P0 e B 1 P0 (1 e B (4.1) ) In which: eB: impact coefficient corresponding to independent variable Xi 35 Replace the corresponding eB values of the independent variables with statistically significant in the formula (4.1), we have the corresponding P values in Table 4.20 Specifically, the social capital element has eB = 4.57, with P = 0.1 From the formula (4.1), we obtain the following result: 0.1x 4.57 P1   0.3365 10.1(1 4.57) Similarly, we have the probability of occurrence of other factors in Table 4.20 Table 4.14 Summarize the effects of independent variables on access to microcredit Assume initial probability with P = 0.1 Code of variable name eB P (%) [X1].VON_XH 4.57 34 [X2].TS_TGVXH 5.15 36 [X3].VTDLY 0.42 [X5].T_NHAP 1.45 14 Based on the results of the statistical analysis, the study summarizes the independent variables affecting the dependent variable according to the level of impact shown in Table 4.15 as follows: Table 4.15 Summarize the variables in the study model to access to microcredit Code of variable name B e B P P (%) Impact location 34 36 1 [X1].VON_XH 1.52 4.57 [X2].TS_TGVXH 1.64 5.15 [X3].VTDLY -0.87 0.42 4 [X5].T_NHAP 0.37 1.45 14 0.1 36 4.7 Conclusions of Chapter Chapter of the thesis presents the situation of poor households in the region It indicates the achievements and difficulties in the task of poverty reduction in the last period in the region Chapter also describes the reality of the study region and variables in the study model CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND SOLUTIONS 5.1 Conclusions The study thesis has presented basic objectives: (1) Determine how microcredit changes the income of poor households and what is the impact level of microcredit on the income of poor households; (2) From the first objective, the thesis identifies the barriers that restrict the access of poor households to microcredit; (3) What policy implications contribute to improve the income through increasing accessibility to microcredit to poor households in the Southeast region Based on foundation theory and the characteristics of microcredit through capital scale variables, they are the main components affecting the income of poor households 5.2 Solutions 5.2.1 Group of solutions to improve income for poor households through the microcredit activities - Strengthen the scale of credit loans for poor households - Labor size and employment issues - Strengthen non-financial activity policies for poor households - Strengthen the microcredit activities to push back the black credit in the localities and villages - Promote internal strengths and peculiarities of each locality in the region in parallel to promote of non-financial policies 37 5.2.2 Group of solutions to improve access to credit for poor households - Expanse social welfare for households: - Increase access to microcredit through increase incomes for poor households - The gaps of living area of the household 5.2.3 Suggest other solutions 5.3 Limitations of the study and orientation of the next studies 38 ... Microcredit on the Income of Poor Households in the Southeast Region 1.2 Overview of the study topic As part of the microfinance activity, microcredit is recognized contributing to the enhancement of. .. (specifically, the income of the microcredit borrowers and the non -microcredit borrowers) 1.4.2 Scope of study 1.4.2.1 Scope of space Provinces of the Southeast region, including Binh Duong, Binh Phuoc, Dong... in the whole country with all kinds of industries The rate of poor households in the region is the lowest in the country Table 4.1 Rate of poor households in the region Surveyed provinces Dong