Societies Under Siege OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 11/9/2015, SPi Societies Under Siege Exploring How International Economic Sanctions (Do Not) Work Lee Jones Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP, United Kingdom Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries © Lee Jones 2015 The moral rights of the author have been asserted First Edition published in 2015 Impression: All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Control Number: 2015936180 ISBN 978–0–19–874932–5 Printed and bound by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and for information only Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work Acknowledgements The research for this book was funded by a major grant from the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council (RES-061-25-0500), enabling the lengthy and costly periods of fieldwork and archival research involved I am deeply grateful for this support Britain’s funding councils face unprecedented pressures from mindless fiscal austerity and an incessant emphasis on nonacademic ‘impact’ Sadly, these external threats to academic freedom have their internal counterparts, in the form of disciplinary gate-keeping One review of my ESRC grant application, for instance, stated that while I would (presumably) wish to use ‘quantitative indicators’ to explain how sanctions worked, since ‘no such methodology exists’, I would be unable to proceed Thankfully the ESRC ignored this narrow-minded counsel Long may it continue to so! My research benefited from extensive intellectual input from others My research assistants, Kelly Gerard, Sahar Rad, Zaw Nay Aung, Kyaw Thu Mya Han, and Aula Hariri, provided invaluable support Dozens of interviewees kindly gave their time (and often considerable hospitality) to help improve my understanding of their countries Kyaw Thu’s assistance in Myanmar was particularly important in accessing local informants and providing translations I am also grateful to Clara Portal for her collaboration on sanctions research; Merle Lipton for her extensive and wise counsel about South Africa; Indré Balcaitè, for stimulating my thinking on Buddhism in Myanmar; Martin Smith, Kevin Woods, and Patrick Meehan for illuminating conversations about, and their superlative work on, Myanmar; Matthew Sheader and Khin Maung Nyo for their help in Yangon; and Christopher Alkhoury for his assistance at the Conflict Records Research Centre of the National Defense University in Washington, D.C Feedback from Toby Dodge and Elin Hellquist on earlier drafts was extremely helpful, as was input from three Oxford University Press reviewers I am also very grateful to OUP’s Olivia Wells, Sarah Parker, and especially Dominic Byatt for their efficiency and encouragement I am also indebted to my wonderful colleagues in the School of Politics and International Relations at Queen Mary, University of London In Britain’s increasingly instrumentalist university sector, it is rare to encounter such a warm, collegial, and intellectually engaged group of scholars in one place Acknowledgements I am particularly grateful to James Dunkerley, Adam Fagan, Ray Kiely, Rick Saull, and David Williams for their advice during the project The school also generously funded a workshop on the political economy of security in January 2013, and a policy development workshop at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in April 2014 My thanks also to Lady Margaret Hall, University of Oxford, where this project initially germinated during my stint as Rose Research Fellow in International Relations Special thanks must go to my friend and intellectual collaborator Shahar Hameiri In 2011, I had the dubious fortune of simultaneously receiving two large-scale research grants—the aforementioned ESRC award, and an Australian Research Council grant for a project with Shahar on non-traditional security Despite the enormous workload thereby generated, it has been a real joy to work with Shahar, who has provided constant intellectual stimulation and comradeship, plus feedback on this manuscript and earlier papers Shahar’s colleagues at Murdoch University’s Asia Research Centre—Richard Robison, Garry Rodan, and Kevin Hewison—have also been consistently supportive, as well as intellectual inspirations Finally, I want to thank my family and friends, who helped me through two periods of severe personal difficulty during this project My parents and sister provided boundless love and support For their true friendship—and intellectual stimulation—I am also deeply grateful to Alastair Fraser, Philip Cunliffe, Mubin Haq, Vidya Kumar, Emily Paddon, Darren Parker, Allan Patience, Seb Perry, and Rosanna Philpott I dedicate this book to my treasured grandparents, Cyril and Lily My grandma succumbed to severe dementia while I was writing this book, and passed away while I was preparing the proofs The process has been heartbreaking But perhaps there is some comfort in the fact that, having raised a large family and instilled in them deep commitments to compassion and justice, her influence continues to echo through the generations I hope this book is worthy of all that she tried to teach me Lee Jones London June 2015 vi Contents List of Figures List of Tables List of Abbreviations Introduction: The Sanctions Debate The Mainstream Sanctions Debate Shifting the Debate: Towards ‘Mechanisms’ Outline of the Book A Political Theory of Sanctions Liberal Theories of Sanctions Public Choice Theories of Sanctions Institutionalist ‘Regime Type’ Approaches The Neo-Weberian Theory of Sanctions A Social Conflict Analysis of Sanctions SCA’s Basic Foundations: Gramscian State Theory Social Conflict Analysis of Sanctions Methodology South Africa: Sanctioning Apartheid South Africa’s Coalitional Struggles Classical Apartheid: from Colonial Origins to the 1960s ‘Reform Apartheid’: from the 1970s to the 1980s The Impact of Early Sanctions: Oil and Arms The Oil Embargo The Arms Embargo The Long-Term Consequences Later Sanctions: Disinvestment, Finance, and Trade Disinvestment Finance and Trade Impact on Social Conflict Conclusion Myanmar: Sanctioning Military Rule Myanmar’s Coalitional Struggles Social Conflict in Myanmar from Independence to 1990 The Military Regime’s Coalitional and Transition Strategy The Opposition Coalition and Transition Strategy ix xi xiii 10 13 16 25 30 34 38 39 42 47 52 53 54 59 66 67 69 71 75 75 77 81 90 93 94 95 97 100 Contents The Material and Distributional Consequences of Sanctions Trade: Reorientation Towards Asia Garments Timber Jade and Gemstones Investment: Concentrating Development in Asian-Oriented Primary Sectors Grass-roots Disinvestment and Boycotts Disinvestment Tourism The Dollar Ban Overseas Aid and Assistance Targeted Sanctions: Visa Bans and Asset Freezes Arms Embargoes Summary Sanctions’ Impact on Coalitional Struggles The Ruling SLORC/SPDC Coalition The Opposition Coalition Conclusion Iraq: Sanctioning Dictatorship Iraq’s Coalitional Struggles Iraq’s Ruling Coalition The Opposition Coalition The Economic Impact of Sanctions on Iraq Phase One: 1990–6 Phase Two: 1996–2003 The Impact of Sanctions on Iraqi Social Conflict: 1990–6 Regime Responses, 1990–2 Regime Responses, 1992–6 Sanctions and the Iraqi Opposition, 1990–6 Iraq’s Coalitional Struggles under the OFFP Regime Responses to the OFFP The Opposition under the OFFP Conclusion Conclusion Sanctions and Ruling Coalitions Sanctions and Opposition Forces Targeted Sanctions: Not So ‘Smart’? Rethinking the Appeal of Sanctions Recommendations for Sanctions Advocates and Policymakers Abandon Analogical Reasoning Planning and Evaluating Sanctions Bibliography Index viii 104 105 107 107 108 108 111 111 112 112 113 114 115 115 116 116 123 127 130 132 133 136 138 139 141 142 142 146 154 159 159 166 168 175 176 178 183 185 189 189 190 193 225 List of Figures 2.1 South Africa’s foreign direct investment stock (US$ millions, current exchange rates) 78 2.2 South African trade and GDP (US$ millions, current exchange rates) 80 2.3 South Africa’s GDP and GDP per capita (constant South African Rand, base year 2013) 3.1 Myanmar’s exports (current US$ millions) 106 3.2 Myanmar’s inward foreign direct investment stock (current US$ millions) 109 4.1 Iraqi economic indicators (current US$ millions) 140 80 Index Page numbers in bold indicate tables and in italic indicate figures, footnotes are indicated by a letter n between page number and note number Abel, David 99, 102, 112, 115, 119 Abu Nidal Organization 169 Afghanistan 1, 165 African National Congress (ANC) 57–9, 61, 65, 86, 90, 182 business approaches to 88–9 relations with Inkatha 84, 180 strategic understanding of sanctions 58–9, 66–7, 182 African Union 186 Afrikaanse Handelinstituut 61 agriculture Iraq 140, 142, 160 Myanmar 101, 106, 125 Rhodesia 47 South Africa 60, 79 aid sanctions impacted groups 44 Myanmar 113–14 Alan Saw U 102 Albright, Madeleine 17, 131 Allen, Susan H 18, 31–2 Al Qaida 51n10, 169 American Chamber of Commerce 89 analogical reasoning for sanctions 50–1, 52–3, 93, 189–90 ANC see African National Congress (ANC) Andreas, Peter 9, 45 Anglo-American Corporation 59, 60, 61, 76, 81, 83, 86, 88, 89 Angola 62, 64, 73–4, 184 anti-apartheid opposition, South Africa 57–9, 61–2, 65–6, 72, 83–5, 91–2, 178, 182 armed resistance 58, 61, 62, 68–9 black-on-black violence 84, 86, 180 business approaches to 88–9, 178 disagreement over sanctions 83–4 and oil embargo 68–9, 179 strategic understanding of sanctions 58–9, 66–7, 182 trade unions 73, 77, 85, 180–2 Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League (AFPFL), Burma 95 anti-Pass Law demonstrations, South Africa 58 apartheid regime, South Africa classical apartheid 53–9 cultivation of popular consent 64–5, 72 impact of sanctions 67–9, 70–5, 77, 81–90, 176 reform apartheid 54, 59–66, 71, 72, 83–6 appeasement, avoiding 50 Arab League 136, 164 Arab Spring 20 Ardeth Maung Thawnghmung 21 Armaments Production Board, South Africa 69 armed resistance Iraq 134, 135, 154–5 Myanmar 95, 96, 118–19, 121 South Africa 58, 61, 62, 68–9 Armscor (Armaments Development and Production Corporation), South Africa 69–70, 72 arms embargoes 13–14 impacted groups 44 Myanmar 115 South Africa 66, 69–71, 73 ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) 98, 109 Asia investment in Myanmar 109, 109 trade with Myanmar 105–7, 106, 108 Asian Development Bank 113 Asia World 150 Askari, Hossein G 13 asset freezes impacted groups 44 Myanmar 105, 115 Association of Chambers of Commerce (ASSOCOM), South Africa 61, 81, 83 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 98, 109 Index Aung San Suu Kyi 50, 93, 97, 100, 102, 103, 110, 124, 128 Aung Than Oo 121 austerity measures, Iraq 136, 142, 148 Australia 106 authoritarian regimes 15 autocratic/democratic dichotomy 31–2 foreign support for 41–2 popular consent 20–1, 31 ruling elites 19–20 see also apartheid regime, South Africa; Ba’athist regime, Iraq; military regime, Myanmar Aziz, Tariq 144, 146, 148, 154, 165 Ba’athist regime, Iraq 19–20, 24, 133–6 ‘coup-proofing’ 133, 142, 156 cultivation of popular consent 133, 134–5, 136, 148, 183 hawk/dove division 144–5, 154, 166 impact of sanctions 142–54, 159–66, 176–7 internal division and conflict 152–4 and Oil For Food Programme 159–66, 168–9 religious turn 151, 166 transition strategy 132, 136, 142–54, 159–66 Ba’ath Party, Iraq 133, 134, 146, 150–1, 153, 159, 160, 162–3 backlash see nationalist anti-sanctions backlash balance of payments deficits, South Africa 62–3, 83 Baldwin, David A banking sanctions 37 Myanmar 112–13, 114, 115, 183 South Africa 67, 77 banks, Iraq 162, 166 ‘Bantustans’ 63, 64 Baram, Amatzia 19–20, 147, 152 Barber Cho 118, 120 Barclays Bank 66, 76 al-Barzani, Mas’ud 137, 150, 155 BDS see boycott, disinvestment, and sanctions (BDS) Biko, Steve 84 biological weapons Iraq 145, 152, 163–4, 172 South Africa 70 ‘Black Consciousness’ movement, South Africa 61, 68, 84 black market 67, 69, 96 see also smuggling black-on-black violence, South Africa 84, 86, 180 Blair, Tony 173 Blanchard, Jean-Marc F 9, 17, 34–6 Boer War 55 Botha, P W 63, 64–6, 70, 74, 81, 82, 85, 87–8 226 boycott, disinvestment, and sanctions (BDS) 52, 189–90 Brink, David 68, 87 British American Tobacco 111 Broederbond 61, 89 BSPP see Burmese Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) Buddhism, effects on mass mobilization in Myanmar 102 Buddhist sangha, Myanmar 95, 98, 102 protests by monks 101, 118, 122 Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce 21 bureaucracies 15, 27, 40 Burma see Myanmar Burma Campaign UK 187 Burmese Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) 93, 95–6, 113 Bush, George H W 2, 131 Bush, George W 165, 173, 174 business Iraq 43, 133, 134, 140, 150, 161–2, 176 Myanmar 176, 177 ‘crony capitalists’ 99, 107–8, 110, 111, 112, 115, 117–18, 119–21, 179 disinvestment 111 impacts of dollar ban 113, 183 impacts of investment sanctions 110, 111 impacts of tourism boycott 112 impacts of trade sanctions 107, 108 lack of opposition from 119–21 nationalization 95–6 targeted sanctions 184, 184n2, 184n3 South Africa 176, 177, 178 activism 86–90 approaches to anti-apartheid opposition 88–9, 178 and arms embargo 70 calls for reforms 59, 60, 61, 81–3, 87–8, 91 capital concentration 60 and civil society 89 and classical apartheid 56–7 corporate codes of conduct 76 disinvestment 66, 75–7 and oil embargo 68, 69 and reform apartheid 64 sanctions busting 68, 70, 72 welfare reforms 61 support for regimes 40, 42–3 Buthelezi, Mangosuthu 84, 86 Cambodia 31, 125 Canada 106 capital concentration, South Africa 60 capital flight, South Africa 59, 65, 78 capitalists see business Carnation Revolution 20 Castro regime, Cuba 31 Index CBM see Consultative Business Movement (CBM), South Africa ceasefire capitalism, Myanmar 99, 119 ceasefire groups, Myanmar 99, 101, 118, 121, 122 ceasefires, Myanmar 98 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) 131, 156, 163, 164, 167, 171 Chalabi, Ahmed 137–8, 155, 156, 167 Chase Manhattan 78 chemical weapons Iraq 135, 145, 172 South Africa 70 China 29, 41 and Iraq 165 and Myanmar 95, 98, 118, 128 arms deals with 115 investment in 109, 114 trade with 106, 108 support for anti-apartheid groups 58 Chit Khaing 125 Christianity 102 churches, South Africa 84, 102 CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) 131, 156, 163, 164, 167, 171 Citibank 77 Civil Disobedience 89 civil–political rights, Iraq 170 civil society 28, 39 Myanmar 95 South Africa 89 civil wars, Myanmar 95, 96 ‘class-clan’, Iraq 134, 135, 143, 162 classical apartheid 53–9 classical liberalism 14, 16–18 Clinton, Bill 131, 165 coalitional liberalism 14–15, 16, 23–5 CODESA see Convention for a Democratic South Africa (CODESA) Coleman, Colin 89 ‘coloured’ population, South Africa 54, 55, 57, 64 Communist Party of Burma (CPB) 95, 96, 98 Comparative Politics research 4, compellance mechanism 13, 16–17, 19, 22, 34–5 compliance with sanction demands, Iraq 132, 136, 143, 144–6, 152, 154, 163–4, 165, 169–72 comprehensive sanctions, retreat from use of 1, Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) 65, 76–7, 85, 180 Conservative Party, South Africa 65, 81, 87 Consolidated Goldfields 88 Consultative Business Movement (CBM), South Africa 88, 89 consumer boycott campaigns 66–7, 75 Convention for a Democratic South Africa (CODESA) 89, 91 corporate codes of conduct 76 corporate social responsibility programmes 76 corruption Iraq 135 South Africa 70 Cortright, David 9, 18, 19, 131 COSATU see Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) Council for National Salvation, Iraq 153 counter-insurgency strategy Myanmar 96 South Africa 64, 65–6, 73–4 ‘coup-proofing’, Iraq 133, 142, 156 coups see military coups CPB see Communist Party of Burma (CPB) Crawford, Neta C 13–14, 52, 53, 104 Crimea 186 ‘crony capitalists’, Myanmar 99, 107–8, 110, 111, 112, 115, 117–18, 119–21, 179 cross-border trafficking, Myanmar 95, 96, 99, 111 Cuba 31, 64, 73, 74 Cuito Cuanavale, battle of 73–4 cultural boycotts 13 currency manipulation 44 Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar 128 Dahl, Robert 27, 29 Darling, Marinus 89 Davis, Jennifer 52 Davis, Stephen P 81, 85–6 Da’wa Party, Iraq 136 deaths due to sanctions 18, 130, 131, 161 debt crises South Africa 46, 63, 65, 72, 77–9, 85 third-world 4, 41 decolonization, Myanmar 95 Defence Advisory Council, South Africa 70 Defence Manpower Liaison Committee, South Africa 70 defence spending, South Africa 70 De Klerk, F W 72, 85, 88, 90–1 De Kock, Gerhard 82 Delport, Tertius 85, 89 democracy promotion, liberal-interventionist agenda of 2–3 democratization, ‘third wave’ of Development Bank, South Africa 82 diplomatic service, Iraq 162 disarmament, Iraq 131, 143, 144–6, 165, 166, 170–3 disinvestment Myanmar 111 South Africa 66, 75–7 227 Index Dodge, Toby 17, 131, 142 dollar ban, Myanmar 112–13, 114, 183 domestic constituents, appeasement of 4–5, 186–9 al-Douri, Izzat Ibrahim 144, 145, 146 Doxey, Margaret 1, drug trafficking Myanmar 95, 96, 99, 111 South Africa 70 Duelfer, Charles 164, 165, 166, 172 Du Plessis, Barend 72, 74, 82, 83, 85, 88 Du Plessis, Fred 87 Durr, Kent 82, 83 Dutch Reformed Church 61 economic crises Iraq 135 South Africa 46, 62–3, 65, 72, 77–9, 78, 80, 85, 92 economic growth Iraq 134, 159 Myanmar 108–9, 117–18 South Africa 57, 72, 79–80, 80, 83 economic impact of sanctions Iraq 136, 138–42, 139, 140 Myanmar 104–18 aid sanctions 113–14 arms embargoes 115 disinvestment 111 dollar ban 112–13, 114, 183 investment sanctions 105, 108–11, 109, 109 targeted sanctions 108, 114–15 tourism boycotts 112 trade sanctions 105–8, 105, 106, 106 Social Conflict Analysis (SCA) 43–4, 44, 48–9 South Africa costs of sanctions busting 71, 72, 83 lack of resources for reform apartheid 71, 72, 83–6 economic strategy Iraq 134, 135, 147 Myanmar 99, 109, 110 Egypt 17, 20 elections Iraq 155, 163 Myanmar 93, 96–7, 100, 103, 121, 124, 128 electoral boycotts Myanmar 103, 124, 128 South Africa 65 elites 14, 19–20 Elliott, Kimberly A 3–4, 5n2, 6, 7, embedded autonomy 37n6 emigration, from Iraq 137, 141, 155 employment Iraq 161 Myanmar 101 228 South Africa 56, 57, 60 and business disinvestment 76–7 impact of sanctions 83, 84 End Conscription Campaign, South Africa 74 Eriksson, Mikael 185–6, 188 Erwin, Alec 76, 77 Escribà-Folch, Abel 32–3 ethical considerations of sanctions 5, 19, 52, 186–9 ethnic minority resistance groups, Myanmar 95, 96, 98, 99, 100–1, 118–19, 121–2, 124, 127–8 Ethnic Nationalities Council, Myanmar 100–1 European Union/ European Economic Community and Myanmar investment in 109, 109 sanctions 106, 107, 108, 115 trade with 106 sanctions on South Africa 66 sanctions policies 186–7 Evans, Gavin 88 Evans, Peter 35, 37n6 executions, Iraq 147, 149 exports Iraq 139, 140, 141 Myanmar 99, 105–6, 106, 106, 107, 108 South Africa 62, 79, 80, 82 see also Oil For Food Programme (OFFP), Iraq; trade sanctions Fatah 190 Fedayeen Saddam, Iraq 148, 149, 151 Federated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FCCI), Myanmar 120 Federated Chambers of Industry (FCI), South Africa 61, 83 financial sanctions impacted groups 44 Myanmar, dollar ban 112–13, 114, 183 South Africa 66, 76–80, 80, 83 see also investment sanctions food rationing, Iraq 144, 147, 156–7, 161 Ford 76 foreign exchange certificates, Myanmar 112 foreign interventions, by South Africa 64, 73–4 foreign investment Myanmar 99, 105, 108–11, 109, 109, 113–14 South Africa 59, 62–3, 65, 77–9, 78 France 78, 109, 130 Freedom Charter 65, 86 Freedom House 170 Gaddafi, Muammar 31 Galtung, Johan 6, 182 Garment Manufacturers’ Association, Myanmar 107 Index garments industry, Myanmar 107 gas exports, Myanmar 106, 107, 113 Gaza, Palestine 190 Geddes, Barbara 7, 32 Gelb, Stephen 45 gemstones 96, 108 General Motors 89 Germany 43n7, 50, 114, 186 Get Ahead Foundation 89 Ghana 20 Ginwala, Frene 68 Giumelli, Francesco 93–4 globalization, regime responses to 23, 24 gold standard 59, 62 Gordon, Joy 131, 142 Graham-Brown, Sarah 19, 152 Gramscian state theory 38, 39–42, 48 Gramsci, Antonio 28, 39 Greenberg, Stanley 61 Group Areas Act, South Africa 56 Gulf War 130, 136 Guomindang army 95 Haggard, Stephan 24 Halliday, Denis 157 Hamas 190 al-Hamdani, Ra’ad Majid 152 Hanlon, Joseph 59, 177 Han Tha Myint 104, 123, 124, 126 ‘hearts and minds’ campaign, South Africa 64 Heineken 111 historical-sociological analysis 47–8 Hla Saw 126 Hufbauer, Gary C 3–4, 7, 8, 17 humanitarian suffering 5, 9, 17–18, 157 deaths due to sanctions 18, 130, 131, 161 impact of sanctions on poor 114, 126 human rights, Iraq 170 Hussein, Qusay 152, 153, 162, 163, 164 Hussein, Saddam 19–20, 21, 50, 138, 147, 149, 153, 162, 176 concern about impact of sanctions 31, 143, 152 and Kurdish Democratic Party 155, 163 and WMD disarmament 145, 164, 165–6, 170–2 see also Ba’athist regime, Iraq Hussein, Uday 148, 149, 152, 153, 162, 163 hybrid regimes 24, 32, 33–4 hyperinflation, Iraq 140, 141, 144 ICP see Iraqi Communist Party (ICP) ideology, as motivating factor 28, 30 IIS see Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS) IMF (International Monetary Fund) 63, 78, 82 imports Iraq 139, 140, 141 Myanmar 105, 106 South Africa 62, 67, 80, 82, 83 see also Oil For Food Programme (OFFP), Iraq; trade sanctions import-substituting industrialization (ISI) India 24 Myanmar 95 Rhodesia 37, 47 South Africa 37, 38, 46, 67–8, 69–70, 81 INA see Iraqi National Accord (INA) INC see Iraqi National Congress (INC) incomes Iraq 134, 135, 140–1 Myanmar 114 South Africa 80, 83, 85 India 24, 45, 106, 114 Indian population, South Africa 54, 55, 57, 64, 87 Indonesia 22, 41–2 Indyk, Martin 168 Inkatha 84, 86, 88, 180 institutionalist theory of sanctions 15, 30–4 instrumentalization of targets of sanctions 4–5, 186–9 insurgencies, Myanmar 95, 96, 98 intelligence agencies CIA 131, 156, 163, 164, 167, 171 Iraq 133, 153, 155, 156, 158, 161, 162, 163, 169, 171 international audiences, appeasement of 4–5, 186–9 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 63, 78, 82 interracial marriage, South Africa 56, 87 intifada, Iraq 133, 136, 137, 146, 151, 167 inverted liberalism 14, 16, 18–23, 183 investment sanctions impacted groups 44 Myanmar 105, 108–11, 109, 109 inward-looking coalitions 23–5 Iran 1, 137, 153, 155, 171 Iran–Iraq war 133, 135, 136 Iraq 3, 24, 49–51, 130–74 business 43, 133, 134, 140, 150, 161–2, 176 economic impact of sanctions 136, 138–42, 139, 140 humanitarian suffering 17–18, 157 deaths due to sanctions 18, 130, 131, 161 oil embargo 46, 139–41, 140, 142–54 opposition forces 136–8, 178–9 armed resistance 134, 135, 154–5 co-optation or repression of 133, 134, 135–6 coup plots 138, 142, 151–2, 156, 162 impact of sanctions 154–9, 166–8, 178–9 internal division and conflict 150, 151, 155–6, 180 229 Index Iraq (cont.) Iraqi Communist Party (ICP) 133, 134, 136, 155, 158, 180, 181 Iraqi National Accord (INA) 136, 138, 142, 155, 156, 167 Iraqi National Congress (INC) 137–8, 142, 154–6, 158, 166, 167–8, 180 Kurdish 133, 134, 135–6, 137, 142, 150, 155, 156, 163, 167, 171, 180 lack of mass support 156–9 liberal democratic nationalists 136, 137–8 and Oil For Food Programme 166–8 Shiites 133, 134, 135–6, 137, 151, 166 support for sanctions 138, 158 transition strategy 137–8 ruling coalition 19–20, 24, 133–6 ‘coup-proofing’ 133, 142, 156 cultivation of popular consent 21, 31, 133, 134–5, 136, 148, 183 hawk/dove division 144–5, 154, 166 impact of sanctions 37–8, 142–54, 159–66, 176–7 internal division and conflict 152–4 and Oil For Food Programme 159–66, 168–9 religious turn 151, 166 transition strategy 132, 136, 142–54, 159–66 strategic responses to sanctions 136, 142–54 compliance 132, 136, 143, 144–6, 152, 154, 163–4, 165, 169–72 food rationing 144, 147, 156–7, 161 Oil For Food Programme 159–66, 168–9 US invasion of 1, 165–6 Iraqi Communist Party (ICP) 133, 134, 136, 155, 158, 180, 181 Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS) 133, 153, 155, 156, 158, 161, 162, 163, 169, 171 Iraqi National Accord (INA) 136, 138, 142, 155, 156, 167 Iraqi National Congress (INC) 137–8, 142, 154–6, 158, 166, 167–8, 180 Iraq Liberation Act, USA 131, 167 Iraq Survey Group (ISG) 145, 171, 173 ISG see Iraq Survey Group (ISG) ISI see import-substituting industrialization (ISI) Israel 1, 50–1, 52, 171, 171n5, 181, 189–90 Italy 41 jade 108 Japan 106, 106, 114 Jessop, Bob 27, 28, 37, 38, 39 Jordan 150 Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) 118–19, 121, 122 Kaempfner, William H 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 230 Kahn, Asif 18 Kamil, Hussein 144, 145, 149, 152, 153–4, 162, 163, 167, 177 karma 102 Kasrils, Ronnie 67 KDP see Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) Keynesianism 57, 135 Al-Khafaji, Isam 159 Khine Khine Nwe 120 Khin Maung Swe 124, 127 Khin Nyunt 119, 124 Khin Zaw Win 124 Khong, Yuen Foong 50 ‘kinship capitalism’, Iraq 134, 143 KIO see Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) Kirshner, Jonathan 8, 9, 24, 43 Klotz, Audie 13–14, 53, 104 Ko Ko Gyi 104 Krogh, Desmond 82 Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) 136, 137, 142, 150, 155, 156, 163, 167, 180 Kurds, Iraq 132 and Oil For Food Programme 141 opposition forces 133, 134, 135–6, 137, 142, 150, 155, 156, 163, 167, 171, 180 use of chemical weapons against 135 Kuwait 3, 130, 136, 143, 152, 169, 171 Kyaw Yin Hlaing 117 labour unions see trade unions Lake, Anthony land grabbing, Myanmar 118 landlord class, Iraq 135, 140, 160 Laos 108 Latin America 41 leadership turnover 33, 33n4 League of Nations 62 legitimacy, state 35 see also public support of regimes liberal democratic nationalists, Iraq 136, 137–8 liberal-interventionist agenda of democracy promotion 2–3 Liberal Party, South Africa 57 liberal theories of sanctions 14–15, 16–25 classical 14, 16–18 coalitional 14–15, 16, 23–5 inverted 14, 16, 18–23, 183 liberation movements see opposition forces Libya 31 Lipton, Merle 88 liquid natural gas plants, South Africa 72 local community councils, South Africa 64, 65 Lo Hsing Han 112 long-range missiles, Iraq 145 Lopez, George A 9, 18, 19, 131 Lowenberg, Anton D 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 Index McConnell, Mitch 50, 93 Mack, Andrew 18 Maharaj, Mac 58, 67, 86 mainstream sanctions research 2–5 neglect of mechanisms 6–10 al-Majid, Ali Hasan 144, 145, 153, 154 Major, Solomon 22, 23 Malan, Magnus 70 Malaysia 106, 108 Mandela, Nelson 58, 87, 88 Marxism 48, 58, 88 Marxist regimes 62 Marx, Karl 47 massacres, South Africa 58, 61 mass mobilization Iraq reasons for lack of 156–9 state organized demonstrations 163 lack of in Myanmar 101–2, 122, 125, 126–7 South Africa 58, 61, 65, 84–5 see also public pressure for political change Maung Aye 119 Mayall, James 16 Mbeki, Thabo 59 mechanisms compellance 13, 16–17, 19, 22, 34–5 neglect of in mainstream research 6–10 normative communication 13 political fracture 13, 14, 17–19, 34–5, 138 resource denial 13, 69, 138 typology of 13–14 Mells Park talks 88 methodological individualism 30 methodological nationalism 41 metta (loving kindness) 102 Meyer, Roelf 88, 89 MIC see Military Industrialization Corporation (MIC), Iraq middle classes 42, 43, 45, 46 Iraq 134–5, 150, 158, 176 Myanmar 125, 176 South Africa 61, 63, 64, 176 migrant labour, Myanmar 101 military 15, 27, 40 Iraq 133, 146, 147–8, 151–2, 161 South Africa 64, 70, 73–4 see also military regime, Myanmar military authoritarianism 32 military coups Iraq 133 ‘coup-proofing’ 133, 142, 156 plots 138, 142, 151–2, 156, 162 Myanmar 93 Military Industrialization Corporation (MIC), Iraq 149, 153, 154, 161, 166 military regime, Myanmar 20, 96–100, 116–23 cultivation of popular consent 98, 116–17, 124–5, 183 disciplined democracy goal 97, 116, 119, 124 impact of sanctions 116–23, 176, 177 patronage of Buddhist sangha 98, 102 ‘roadmap to democracy’ 119, 127 spending on public services 114 targeted sanctions 51, 51n10, 108, 114–15, 183, 184, 184n2, 184n3 transition strategy 97–100, 124 militias Iraq 133, 137, 148, 149, 151, 167 Kurdish 137, 155 South Africa 69 Millennium Development Goals 114 ‘minimum-winning’ coalitions 31 Ministry of Planning, Iraq 161 Minty, Abdul 58 miscegenation, South Africa 56, 87 Mixed Marriages and Immorality Acts, South Africa 56 MK see Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) mobilization see mass mobilization Moe Kyaw 121 monetary sanctions, impacted groups 44 money laundering, Myanmar 99, 111 Montenegro 51n10 Morgan, T Clifton 26, 27, 29 Mossgas, South Africa 72 Mozambique 62, 64 Mufamadi, Sydney 77 Mullins, Dawie 83 multinational companies South Africa disinvestment 66, 75–7 sanctions busting 68 Myanmar 18, 21, 49–51, 51n10, 93–129, 187 business 176, 177 ‘crony capitalists’ 99, 107–8, 110, 111, 112, 115, 117–18, 119–21, 179 disinvestment 111 impacts of dollar ban 113, 183 impacts of investment sanctions 110, 111 impacts of tourism boycott 112 impacts of trade sanctions 107, 108 lack of opposition from 119–21 nationalization 95–6 targeted sanctions 184, 184n2, 184n3 economic impact of sanctions 104–18 aid sanctions 113–14 arms embargoes 115 disinvestment 111 dollar ban 112–13, 114, 183 investment sanctions 105, 108–11, 109, 109 targeted sanctions 108, 114–15 231 Index Myanmar (cont.) tourism boycotts 112 trade sanctions 105–8, 105, 106, 106 military regime 20, 96–100, 116–23 cultivation of popular consent 98, 116–17, 124–5, 183 disciplined democracy goal 97, 116, 119, 124 impact of sanctions 116–23, 176, 177 patronage of Buddhist sangha 98, 102 ‘roadmap to democracy’ 119, 127 spending on public services 114 targeted sanctions 51, 51n10, 108, 114–15, 183, 184, 184n2, 184n3 transition strategy 97–100, 124 opposition forces 95, 98, 100–4, 123–7 armed resistance 95, 96, 118–19, 121 boycotts by 103, 122, 124, 127, 128 divide-and-rule approaches to 99–100, 101 effects of Buddhism 102 ethnic minority resistance groups 95, 96, 98, 99, 100–1, 118–19, 121–2, 124, 127–8 impact of sanctions 123–7, 179–80 lack of mass support 101–2, 122, 125, 126–7 protests by Buddhist monks 101, 118, 122 repression of 97, 98, 100, 127 transition strategy 95, 103–4, 180 pre-1990 social conflict 95–7 strategic responses to sanctions 115–16 arms embargoes 115 costs of 113 evasion of dollar ban 112–13 trade sanctions 105–7, 106, 108 Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd 108 Myanmar Egress 121 Myanmar Investment Commission 110 Myanmar Timber Merchants Association (MTMA) 108, 118, 120 Myo Nyunt 125, 126 ‘naïve theory’ of sanctions 6, 14, 138, 182, 183 Namibia 62, 73, 74 narcotics see drug trafficking National Convention (NC), Myanmar 97, 103, 122, 124, 127–8 nationalism Afrikaner 55, 64–5 Iraq 132, 135 methodological 41 nationalist anti-sanctions backlash 8–9, 29, 185 Iraq 158 Myanmar 124–5 South Africa 71 232 nationalization of businesses Iraq 133, 134 Myanmar 95–6 National Key Points Act, South Africa 69 National League for Democracy (NLD), Myanmar 93, 180 attitude to sanctions 103–4 boycotts by 103, 122, 124, 127, 128 election success 96–7 impact of sanctions 123–5 lack of business support 121 transition strategy 95, 103–4, 180 National Monitoring Directorate (NMD), Iraq 145, 154, 165 National Party (NP), South Africa 54, 55–6, 57, 60, 61, 64–5, 71, 87 National Patriotic Front, Iraq 133 National Security Management System, South Africa 70 National Union of Mineworkers, South Africa 73 natural resource exploitation, Myanmar 98, 107–8, 118 Nedbank, South Africa 68 neoliberalism Iraq 135, 147 and organized labour 181 South Africa 64, 82 neo-tribalism, Iraq 151, 159, 160, 162 neo-Weberian theory of sanctions 15, 34–8, 39, 42, 47, 86 Nepal 20 neutral brokers, states as 15, 27 New York Times 138 NGOs, Myanmar 114 Nicaragua 20 NLD see National League for Democracy (NLD), Myanmar NMD see National Monitoring Directorate (NMD), Iraq no-fly zone, Iraq 136, 137 Non-Aligned Movement 58 normative communication mechanism 13 North Korea 21, 24 nouveaux riches 45, 148–9, 150 see also smuggling nuclear weapons 23, 24 Iran 171 Iraq 145 South Africa 24–5, 70 OAU see Organization for African Unity (OAU) OFFP see Oil For Food Programme (OFFP), Iraq oil companies disinvestment in Myanmar 111 Iraq 164 oil crisis 41, 62, 68 Index oil embargoes Iraq 46, 139–41, 140, 142–54 South Africa 66, 67–9, 71, 72–3, 179 Oil For Food Programme (OFFP), Iraq 130, 132, 136, 139, 154 economic impact of 140, 141–2 impact on opposition forces 166–8 regime responses to 159–66, 168–9 oil-from-coal plants, South Africa 67 oil revenues, Iraq 133, 134, 139 Old Mutual 60 oligarchic democracies 31 O’Meara, Dan 55 Omond, Roger 59, 177 opium trafficking 95, 96 opposition forces impact of sanctions 26, 178–82 Iraq 154–9, 166–8, 178–9 Myanmar 123–7, 179–80 South Africa 179, 180 Iraq 136–8, 178–9 armed resistance 134, 135, 154–5 co-optation or repression of 133, 134, 135–6 coup plots 138, 142, 151–2, 156, 162 impact of sanctions 154–9, 166–8, 178–9 internal division and conflict 150, 151, 155–6, 180 Iraqi Communist Party (ICP) 133, 134, 136, 155, 158, 180, 181 Iraqi National Accord (INA) 136, 138, 142, 155, 156, 167 Iraqi National Congress (INC) 137–8, 142, 154–6, 158, 166, 167–8, 180 Kurdish 133, 134, 135–6, 137, 142, 150, 155, 156, 163, 167, 171, 180 lack of mass support 156–9 liberal democratic nationalists 136, 137–8 and Oil For Food Programme 166–8 Shiite 133, 134, 135–6, 137, 151, 166 support for sanctions 138, 158 transition strategy 137–8 Myanmar 95, 98, 100–4, 123–7 armed resistance 95, 96, 118–19, 121 boycotts by 103, 122, 124, 127, 128 divide-and-rule approaches to 99–100, 101 effects of Buddhism 102 ethnic minority resistance groups 95, 96, 98, 99, 100–1, 118–19, 121–2, 124, 127–8 impact of sanctions 123–7, 179–80 lack of mass support 101–2, 122, 125, 126–7 protests by Buddhist monks 101, 118, 122 repression of 97, 98, 100, 127 transition strategy 95, 103–4, 180 South Africa 57–9, 61–2, 65–6, 72, 83–5, 91–2, 178, 182 armed resistance 58, 61, 62, 68–9 black-on-black violence 84, 86, 180 business approaches to 88–9, 178 disagreement over sanctions 83–4 and oil embargo 68–9, 179 strategic understanding of sanctions 58–9, 66–7, 182 trade unions 73, 77, 85, 180–2 Organization for African Unity (OAU) 58, 62, 66 Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries 66 organized labour see trade unions outward-looking coalitions 23–5 overseas assistance see aid sanctions PAC see Pan-African Congress (PAC) Palestine 52, 169, 181, 189–90 Pan-African Congress (PAC) 58, 88 pan-Arabism 132 Pape, Robert 3–4, 8, 52 Pass Laws, South Africa 56, 58, 89 Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 134, 136, 137, 142, 155, 156, 167, 171 PCT see public choice theory (PCT) Pedersen, Morten B 107, 116, 117, 123, 127 Pepsi 111 personalist regimes 32, 33 Petronas 111 Philippines 20 Phone Win 118 pluralist state theory 15, 26, 27–8 political fracture mechanism 13, 14, 17–19, 34–5, 138 political liberalization, Iraq 170 political motivations, reductionist view of 15, 28–9 political theories of sanctions 13–47 institutionalist 15, 30–4 liberal 14–15, 16–25 classical 14, 16–18 coalitional 14–15, 16, 23–5 inverted 14, 16, 18–23, 183 ‘naïve’ 6, 14, 138, 182, 183 neo-Weberian 15, 34–8, 39, 42, 47, 86 public choice theory (PCT) 15, 25–30 see also Social Conflict Analysis (SCA) poor, impact of sanctions on 114, 126 popular consent see public support of regimes Portugal 20, 62 Poulantzas, Nicos 38, 39 Private Sector Export Advisory Committee, South Africa 82 pro-democracy movement, Myanmar 95, 98, 100–1 see also National League for Democracy (NLD), Myanmar 233 Index Progressive Federal Party (PFP), South Africa 61, 71, 87 protests Myanmar 93, 94, 96, 122 by Buddhist monks 101, 118, 122 working classes 125 South Africa 58, 61, 65, 78, 86 psychological effects of sanctions 158 public choice theory (PCT) 15, 25–30 public pressure for political change 14, 15, 17–19, 20, 34–5, 36 see also mass mobilization public support of regimes 8–9, 20–1, 31, 35 Iraq 21, 31, 133, 134–5, 136, 148, 183 Myanmar 98, 116–17, 124–5, 183 South Africa 64–5, 72 PUK see Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Rakhine ethnic minority, Myanmar 99–100 ‘rally round the flag’ backlash 8–9, 29, 71, 185 see also nationalist anti-sanctions backlash Ramadan, Taha Yasin 143, 149, 161, 165 Rashid, Amer Mohammed 144 rationing, Iraq 144, 147, 156–7, 161 RCC see Revolutionary Command Council (RCC), Iraq reconstruction, Iraq 138n1, 142, 143–4, 166 reform apartheid 54, 59–66 lack of resources for 71, 72, 83–6 regime change promotion of 3, 52 pursuit of in Iraq 131, 132, 163, 172, 173–4 ‘regime type’ theory of sanctions 15, 30–4 religion 102 religious organizations South Africa 84, 102 see also Buddhist sangha, Myanmar Relly, Gavin 81 Rembrandt 59, 61, 87 remittances Iraq 147 Myanmar 101 reparations, Iraqi to Kuwait 143, 169 Republican Guard (RG), Iraq 133, 147, 151, 157, 162 Reserve Bank, South Africa 68, 77, 82 resource denial mechanism 13, 69, 138 responses to sanctions see strategic responses to sanctions Revolutionary Command Council (RCC), Iraq 134, 143, 144, 146 RG see Republican Guard (RG), Iraq Rhodesia 3, 6, 62, 86 capitalist support for regime 42, 43 import-substituting industrialization (ISI) 37, 47 tobacco farmers 47 234 Rice Industry Association, Myanmar 121 Ripsman, Norrin M 9, 17, 34–6 Ritter, Scott 154, 172, 173 ‘roadmap to democracy’, Myanmar 119, 127 Rohingya Muslims, Myanmar 99–100 Romania 20 Rowe, David M 8, 37, 43, 47, 86 ruling coalitions 19–20, 30–1, 39–41, 42 impact of sanctions 176–7 Iraq 37–8, 142–54, 159–66, 176–7 Myanmar 116–23, 176, 177 South Africa 67–9, 70–5, 77, 81–90, 176 Iraq 19–20, 24, 133–6 ‘coup-proofing’ 133, 142, 156 cultivation of popular consent 133, 134–5, 136, 148, 183 hawk/dove division 144–5, 154, 166 impact of sanctions 37–8, 142–54, 159–66, 176–7 internal division and conflict 152–4 and Oil For Food Programme 159–66, 168–9 religious turn 151, 166 transition strategy 132, 136, 142–54, 159–66 Myanmar 20, 96–100, 116–23 cultivation of popular consent 98, 116–17, 124–5, 183 disciplined democracy goal 97, 116, 119, 124 impact of sanctions 116–23, 176, 177 patronage of Buddhist sangha 98, 102 ‘roadmap to democracy’ 119, 127 spending on public services 114 targeted sanctions 51, 51n10, 108, 114–15, 183, 184, 184n2, 184n3 transition strategy 97–100, 124 South Africa 53 classical apartheid 53–9 cultivation of popular consent 64–5, 72 impact of sanctions 67–9, 70–5, 77, 81–90, 176 reform apartheid 54, 59–66, 71, 72, 83–6 see also strategic responses to sanctions; targeted sanctions ruling elites 14, 19–20 Rupert, Anton 87 Russia 165, 186 Saboi Jum 118–19 SACP see South African Communist Party (SACP) SADF see South African Defence Forces (SADF) al-Sadr, Mohammed Sadiq 151, 166–7 SAIRI see Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI) Sai Sam Kham 127 Index Sakai, Keiko 151 al-Salihi, Najid 162 al-Samarra’i, Wafiq 155 Samcor 76 sanctions busting Iraq 135, 140, 144, 147, 148–50, 153, 155, 162, 163, 164 Myanmar costs of 113 evasion of dollar ban 112–13 South Africa arms embargo 69, 70 costs of 71, 72, 83 later sanctions 86 oil embargo 67–8 opposition to 72 as short-term solution 82–3 see also strategic responses to sanctions sanctions research 2–5 neglect of mechanisms 6–10 Sanlam 60, 87, 89 Sasol 67, 68, 69, 71, 72 Saudi Arabia 138 SCA see Social Conflict Analysis (SCA) Schott, Jeffrey C 3–4, 7, Schwebach, Valerie 26, 29 sectarianism, Iraq 137, 151, 159 separate development policy, South Africa 63 Serbia 51n10 Sevan, Benon 164 Sharpeville massacre, South Africa 58, 66 Shell 76 Shiite Muslims, Iraq 132 middle classes 134–5 opposition forces 133, 134, 135–6, 137, 151, 166 ‘siege economy’ strategy Iraq 147 South Africa 81–3 Singapore 36–7, 106, 108, 113, 115 single-party regimes 32 Skocpol, Theda 35 SLORC see military regime, Myanmar Slovo, Joe 69 smart sanctions see targeted sanctions smuggling 45 Iraq 135, 140, 144, 147, 148–50, 153, 155, 162, 163 Social Conflict Analysis (SCA) 2, 15–16, 38–47, 48–9 economic impact of sanctions 43–4, 44, 48–9 Gramscian state theory 38, 39–42, 48 planning and evaluating sanctions 190–1 socio-political coalitions 42–3, 48, 183 strategic responses to sanctions 44–7, 49 societal pressure for political change 14, 15, 17–19, 20, 34–5, 36 see also mass mobilization societal support for regimes see public support of regimes socio-economic reforms, South Africa 64 socio-economic rights, Iraq 170 socio-political coalitions Social Conflict Analysis (SCA) 42–3, 48, 183 see also opposition forces; ruling coalitions Solingen, Etel 23, 24 South Africa 3, 17, 49–51, 52–92 and analogical reasoning for sanctions 50–1, 52–3, 93, 189–90 anti-apartheid opposition 57–9, 61–2, 65–6, 72, 83–5, 91–2, 178, 182 armed resistance 58, 61, 62, 68–9 black-on-black violence 84, 86, 180 business approaches to 88–9, 178 disagreement over sanctions 83–4 and oil embargo 68–9, 179 strategic understanding of sanctions 58–9, 66–7, 182 trade unions 73, 77, 85, 180–2 business 176, 177, 178 activism 86–90 approaches to anti-apartheid opposition 88–9, 178 and arms embargo 70 calls for reforms 59, 60, 61, 81–3, 87–8, 91 capital concentration 60 and civil society 89 and classical apartheid 56–7 corporate codes of conduct 76 disinvestment 66, 75–7 and oil embargo 68, 69 and reform apartheid 64 sanctions busting 68, 70, 72 welfare reforms 61 consumer boycott campaigns 66–7, 75 counter-insurgency strategy 64, 65–6, 73–4 early sanctions 66–75, 66 arms embargo 66, 69–71, 73 long-term consequences 71–5 oil embargo 66, 67–9, 71, 72–3, 179 economic crisis 46, 62–3, 65, 72, 77–9, 78, 80, 85, 92 economic impact of sanctions costs of sanctions busting 71, 72, 83 lack of resources for reform apartheid 71, 72, 83–6 end of apartheid 90–1 foreign interventions by 64, 73–4 later sanctions 66, 75–90 business activism 86–90 disinvestment 66, 75–7 divisions over responses to 81–3 235 Index South Africa (cont.) financial sanctions 66, 76–80, 80, 83 lack of resources for reform apartheid 83–6 trade sanctions 66, 79–80, 80 nuclear weapons 24–5, 70 ruling coalition 53 classical apartheid 53–9 cultivation of popular consent 64–5, 72 impact of sanctions 67–9, 70–5, 77, 81–90, 176 reform apartheid 54, 59–66, 71, 72, 83–6 strategic responses to sanctions 71–5 arms embargo 69–70 costs of 71, 72, 83 financial and trade sanctions 81–3 import-substituting industrialization (ISI) 37, 38, 46, 67–8, 69–70, 81 oil embargo 67–8, 71, 72–3 ‘siege economy’ strategy 81–3 verkrampte/verligte divisions over 81–3 trade unions 56, 60, 64, 65, 73 anti-apartheid opposition 73, 77, 85, 180–2 business approaches to 88 and business disinvestment 75, 76–7 opposition to sanctions 84 verkrampte/verligte divisions 61, 63, 64–5, 81–3 South Africa Foundation 59, 81 South African Communist Party (SACP) 58, 90 South African Defence Forces (SADF) 70, 73–4 Soviet Union 3, 64, 73, 74 support for anti-apartheid groups 58 Soweto uprising, South Africa 61, 62, 66 SPDC see military regime, Myanmar Special Republican Guard (SRG), Iraq 147, 151, 156, 162, 163 Special Security Office, Iraq 164, 171n5 SRG see Special Republican Guard (SRG), Iraq Standard Bank Investment Corporation 81 state autonomy 14, 15, 34, 35, 36–7 state-based interest groups 15, 27, 40 state capacity 33, 35, 36 State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) see military regime, Myanmar state legitimacy 35 see also public support of regimes stateness 15, 34, 35–8 State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) see military regime, Myanmar states as neutral brokers 15, 27 State Security Council (SSC), South Africa 64, 65, 70 states of emergency, South Africa 65–6, 78, 87 state-sponsored terrorism, Iraq 169–70 state theory Gramscian 38, 39–42, 48 236 neo-Weberian 15, 34–8, 39, 42, 47, 86 pluralist 15, 26, 27–8 strategic responses to sanctions import-substituting industrialization (ISI) India 24 Myanmar 95 Rhodesia 37, 47 South Africa 37, 38, 46, 67–8, 69–70, 81 Iraq 136, 142–54 compliance 132, 136, 143, 144–6, 152, 154, 163–4, 165, 169–72 food rationing 144, 147, 156–7, 161 Oil For Food Programme 159–66, 168–9 Myanmar 115–16 arms embargoes 115 costs of 113 evasion of dollar ban 112–13 trade sanctions 105–7, 106, 108 Social Conflict Analysis (SCA) 44–7, 49 South Africa 71–5 arms embargo 69–70 costs of 71, 72, 83 financial and trade sanctions 81–3 import-substituting industrialization (ISI) 37, 38, 46, 67–8, 69–70, 81 oil embargo 67–8, 71, 72–3 ‘siege economy’ strategy 81–3 strategic selectivity 15, 27, 28, 37, 40, 45, 179 strength of states 37, 37n6 strike action, Myanmar 125 South Africa 65, 85 structural adjustment policies 41 Iraq 135 South Africa 82 structural autonomy 15, 34, 35, 36–7 success rate of sanctions 3–4, 5, 5n2 Suharto 22, 41–2 Sullivan Code 76 Sunni Muslims, Iraq 132, 133, 135–6, 162 Sunter, Clem 89 Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI) 136, 137, 151, 155, 156, 167, 171 Syria 1, 163 al-Tikriti, Barzan 152 Talabani, Jalal 137, 167–8 Tambo, Oliver 58 Tanzania 58 targeted sanctions 1, 5, 9, 14, 19, 22–3, 51, 51n10, 183–5 ethical considerations 188 impacted groups 44 Iraq 165 Myanmar 51, 51n10, 108, 114–15, 183, 184, 184n2, 184n3 Index taxation 36 terrorism, Iraq 169–70 Texaco 111 Thailand 20, 95, 98, 106, 108, 114, 118 Than Nyein 124 Thein Sein 128, 129 Thein Tun 111 theories of sanctions see political theories of sanctions ‘There Must Be a Better Way’ group, South Africa 87 Thinan Myo Nyun 18 ‘third wave’ of democratization third-world debt crisis 4, 41 timber export embargoes, Myanmar 107–8 tobacco farmers, Rhodesia 47 Total 111 tourism boycotts, Myanmar 112, 184 township violence, South Africa 61, 84, 86 trade see exports; imports; Oil For Food Programme (OFFP), Iraq; trade sanctions trade sanctions impacted groups 44 Iraq 139–41, 139, 140, 142–54 Myanmar 105–8, 105, 106, 106 South Africa 66, 79–80, 80 trade unions 28, 36, 180–2 Iraq 158 Myanmar 101, 125 South Africa 56, 60, 64, 65, 73 anti-apartheid opposition 73, 77, 85, 180–2 business approaches to 88 and business disinvestment 75, 76–7 opposition to sanctions 84 transhipment of exports 108 transition strategies Iraq opposition forces 137–8 ruling coalition 132, 136, 142–54, 159–66 Myanmar military regime 97–100, 124 opposition forces 95, 103–4, 180 transnational constitution of societies and regimes 41–2 travel bans 19 Myanmar 115, 183 ‘trek to Lusaka’ 88 ‘tribal homelands’, South Africa 56, 63, 64 tricameral parliament, South Africa 64, 65 Trust Bank of Africa 85–6 Truth and Reconciliation Commission, South Africa 71 Tunisia 20 Turkey 149, 150, 163 Tutu, Desmond 52, 78, 89, 93 UK see United Kingdom Ukraine 186 Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) 58, 61, 62, 68–9 unemployment Iraq 140, 141, 161 South Africa 83, 84 see also employment unilateral sanctions 5n2 Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), Myanmar 98, 128 UN–Iraq Memorandum of Understanding 139 United Democratic Front (UDF), South Africa 65, 78, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 180, 182 United Kingdom appeasement of domestic constituents 187 and Iraq regime change goal 172, 173–4 sanctions 131, 132, 136, 165 suspicions over WMD 164, 172–3 and Myanmar investment in 109 sanctions 187 and South Africa anti-apartheid campaigns 75 sanctions 66 United Nationalities League for Democracy, Myanmar 100 United Nations Security Council (UNSC) 2–3, 5, 66, 69 resolutions regarding Iraq 130–1, 138, 139 compliance with 132, 136, 143, 144–6, 152, 154, 163–4, 165, 169–72 United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) 144–5, 146, 153–4, 156, 163–4, 165, 170–3, 171n5 United Party, South Africa 71 United States 95 appeasement of domestic constituents 187 and Iraq invasion 1, 165–6 regime change goal 131, 132, 163, 172, 173–4 sanctions 131, 132, 136, 165 support for opposition 138, 156, 167 suspicions over WMD 164, 172–3 and Myanmar dollar ban 112–13, 114, 183 investment in 109, 109 sanctions 106, 107, 112–13, 114, 115, 126 trade with 106 and South Africa 74 anti-apartheid campaigns 75 sanctions 66 UNMOVIC 165 Unocal 111 237 Index UNSC see United Nations Security Council (UNSC) UNSCOM (United Nations Special Commission) 144–5, 146, 153–4, 156, 163–4, 165, 170–3, 171n5 UNSC Resolution 661 130 UNSC Resolution 687 130–1, 169, 172 UNSC Resolution 688 130–1, 169 UNSC Resolution 986 139 UNSC Resolution 1175 139 UNSC Resolution 1284 139 UNSC Resolution 1409 139, 165 UNSC Resolution 1441 165 Urban Foundation, South Africa 61, 89 USDA see Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), Myanmar Van Heerden, Neil 73, 82 verkrampte/verligte divisions, South Africa 61, 63, 64–5, 81–3 Vietnam 108 Viljoen, Piet 74 visa bans, Myanmar 115 Visit Myanmar Year 112 von Soest, Christian 185 Vorster, John 63, 71 Wassenaar, Andreas 60 weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Iraq 130, 131, 144–6, 165, 166, 170–3 238 destruction of 143, 145–6, 170–1 inspections 144–5, 146, 153–4, 163–4, 165 Weber, Max see also neo-Weberian theory of sanctions Weekly Mail 76 Weiss, Thomas G 6, 9, 18 Wessels, Leon 74, 88 Wikileaks 50 Wilson, Woodrow 16, 17 WMD see weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Iraq wood processing industry, Myanmar 108 working classes Iraq 158, 181 Myanmar 101, 125, 181 Palestine 181 South Africa 38, 57, 61, 180 see also trade unions World Bank 57, 113, 114 Wright, Joseph 32–3 Yaphe, Judith 131, 173 Zambia 58 ZANU-PF 187 Zaw Win Min 120 Zimbabwe 184, 187 Zondi, Musa 84 .. .Societies Under Siege OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 11/9/2015, SPi Societies Under Siege Exploring How International Economic Sanctions (Do Not) Work Lee Jones Great Clarendon... establishing how sanctions work or not work is analytically prior to understanding how often they work Finally, the narrow focus on utility produces crude explanations of outcomes that stunt our understanding... develops the theoretical framework used to explore the impact of sanctions in selected target societies The basic argument is that, to understand how sanctions work, or not work, we must begin with