THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU
Luminiţa Chivu, Constantin Ciutacu and George Georgescu Deindustrialization and Reindustrialization in Romania Economic Strategy Challenges Luminiţa Chivu National Institute for Economic Research “Costin C Kiriţescu”, Bucharest, Romania Constantin Ciutacu National Institute for Economic Research “Costin C Kiriţescu”, Bucharest, Romania George Georgescu National Institute for Economic Research “Costin C Kiriţescu”, Bucharest, Romania ISBN 978-3-319-65752-3 e-ISBN 978-3-319-65753-0 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65753-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017957569 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017 This work is subject to copyright All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations Cover illustration: Agencja Fotograficzna Caro / Alamy Stock Photo Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland “The depth and rigor of this work shows that the Romanian economy has specialists capable of offering a clear, precise and useful diagnosis of the weaknesses, strengths and possibilities of Romanian industry from its origins to its present and future Luminita Chivu, Constantin Ciutacu and George Georgescu, with the support of Romanian Academy, not only describe reality but also provide alternative guidelines that will serve planners, international investors and European and global governance bodies.” — Jaime Gil-Aluja, President of the Royal Academy of Economics of Spain and author of “Towards an Advanced Modelling of Complex Economic Phenomena” “The lack of industrial policy in the U.S.A contributed mightily to the rise of Trumpism, which demonstrates the dangers posed by globalization without thinking creatively about the powerful structural and redistributive forces it unleashes This valuable case study establishes the foundational principles of such policies for Romania with universal implications Policy makers keen on helping to establish a decent quality of life with a stable political system can disregard these recommendations only at their peril.” — John Komlos, Professor Emeritus, University of Munich and author of “What Every Economics Student Needs to Know” Preface The idea of the book originated in the importance we have given in our previous studies to the key economic and social role of the industry sector and the need to investigate the most relevant issues regarding the dynamics of Romania’s post-communism deindustrialization, in order to find appropriate answers to new challenges the country faces in the medium and long term in a complex international context This book is structured into seven chapters, focusing, in a progressive and analytical manner, on changes generated in the history of industrial revolutions and particularities of Industry 4.0 current trends: Romania’s macroeconomic developments during the transition to the market economy, including some adverse effects; the privatization of state-owned companies; the impact of deindustrialization on industrial restructuring, labour market and productivity, looking at relevant international experiences in industrial policies as lessons to be learned by Romania; and concluding with specific actions and measures, both legal and institutional, which could support the country’ reindustrialization Many arguments are based on data series analysis and are illustrated with tables and figures, making the material in the book more accessible by students and academic researchers, policy-makers in the field of industrial policies, investors or entrepreneurs We would like to mention that the elaboration of this study is the result of much research, to which, an essential contribution was made by the late professor Constantin Ciutacu, a remarkable personality and economic researcher in Romania, who passed away earlier this year, to whom we pay an emotional tribute Respected and appreciated by all the researchers and collaborators at the National Institute for Economic Research “Costin C Kiriţescu”, Professor Constantin Ciutacu enjoyed honours, awards and distinctions of excellence, of which, the dearest to his heart was the award of “Academic Merit”, the highest distinction awarded by the Romanian Academy The study would not have had the actual substance it does and could not have taken the pulse of Romania’s industrial realities without the debate and analysis framework offered by the Employers Association of Domestic Investors (PIAROM), for which we would like to thank the President, Mr Cristian Nicolae Pârvan All the work invested in this project could not have been finalized in a book without the constant support of Palgrave Macmillan’s editorial teams, to whom we are most grateful for their helpful initiatives, comments and suggestions Contents The National and European Context of Industrial Development Macroeconomic Changes in Romania During the Transition Period Privatization-Driven Transformation of Romania’s Industrial Landscape Industrial Production Restructuring Impacts of Romania’s Deindustrialization on Labour Market and Productivity Industry and Industrial Policies in the European Union Conclusions on How the Industrial Economy in Romania Should Be Supported Appendices Index List of Figures Fig 4.1 Indices of gross value added, in industry, by subsectors (1990 = 100.0) Source: Authors’ own compilation based on data from Romania’s Statistic Yearbook , NIS, Bucharest, various editions Fig 4.2 Indices of intermediate consumption, in industry, by subsectors (1990 = 100.0) Source: Authors’ own compilation based on data from Romania’s Statistic Yearbook , NIS, Bucharest, various editions Fig 4.3 Share of imports and exports in production, by groups of industrial products, in 2013 (%) Source: Authors’ own compilation based on data from National Accounts 2012–2013 , NIS, Bucharest, 2016 Fig 5.1 The evolution of the number of employees in industry, in the period 1960–2015 (thou pers.) Source: Authors’ own compilation based on NIS data List of Tables Table 1.1 Steel production in some of the EU member states (mil tonnes) Table 1.2 Manufacture of basic steel, and total trade in iron scrap, by time periods Table 1.3 Contribution of territories to the world added value in the manufacturing industry (%) Table 1.4 Manufacturing factor intensity level, by groups of industries Table 1.5 Manufacturing factor intensity, by groups of industries Table 2.1 The macroeconomic indicators, 1990–2015 Table 2.2 The GDP per capita, in purchasing power standards (EU 28 = 100.0) Table 2.3 The evolution of the gross production, intermediate consumption and gross value added, by economic sectors (current bn euro) Table 2.4 The structure of the gross production, intermediate consumption and gross value added, by economic sectors (%, prices for each year, total economy = 100.0) Table 2.5 Price index during 1990–2015 (1990 = 100.0) Table 2.6 Gross production, the GDP, and the annual worth of transactions on the inter-bank foreign exchange market (bn euro) Table 2.7 Romania’s foreign trade balance in 1991–2015 (bn euro, %) Table 2.8 Trade balance during the periods 2000–2006 and 2007–2013 (bn euro) Table 2.9 The external debt of Romania during the period 2007–2016 (mil euro) Table 3.1 Most important privatisations in Romania, during 1992–2015 Table 3.2 Index of fixed assets in the economy Table 3.3 Structure of fixed assets (total economy = 100.0) Table 3.4 Distribution of industrial companies by size range Table 3.5 Distribution of companies by ownership, 2015 (%) Table 3.6 Distribution of employees by structure of ownership, 2015 (%) Table 3.7 Distribution of turnover and number of employees by origin of capital, in 2014 Table 3.8 Average number of employees by company size range in the industry, 2008–2014 Table 3.9 Average turnover by size-class of industrial enterprises (thou euro/enterprise) Table 3.10 Classification of industrial branches by company average turnover, in Romania, in 2011 and 2014 Table 3.11 Concentration of production companies in industry Table 4.1 Real indices of the industrial production (1990 = 100.0) Table 4.2 Price indices of industrial production by activities (CAEN Rev 2) and large groups of industries (December 2005 = 100.0) Table 4.3 Indices of gross production, intermediate consumption and gross value added, in industry (1990 = 100.0) Table 4.4 Share of imports and exports in the production of goods and services in some of the groups of industrial products, in 2013 Table 5.1 The evolution of the number of employees in industry, by region, 1960–2015 (thou pers.) Table 5.2 Average number of employees by industrial activities, 1990–2007 (thou pers.) Table 5.3 Average number of employees by industrial activities 2008–2015 (thou pers., %) Table 5.4 Gross salaries paid as average per capita in EU 28 Table 5.5 Earnings and salary costs in the economy and industry Table 5.6 Ranking of industrial branches and sub-branches by the monthly net average salary (euro, % of the all-economy average) Table 5.7 Gross value added, labour productivity and compensation of employees in industry Table 5.8 Shares held by the gross operating surplus and compensation of employees in the gross value added, in 2013 (%) Table 5.9 Ranking of certain industrial sectors in Romania compared to the EU27 average, 2005, 2010 and 2013 Table 6.1 Human and financial resources mobilised by some of EU and non-EU countries to promote competitiveness, exports and internationalization of companies in 2013 Metallurgical industry 505 Metal structures, metal products, except 434 for machines, machinery and equipment 418 299 581 321 405 294 1051 354 489 352 1060 395 518 383 Manufacture of computers and electronic and optic devices 403 348 358 382 452 488 441 515 Manufacture of electrical equipment 293 303 Manufacture of machines , machinery and equipment n.e.c 575 352 Manufacture of road transport motorvehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 453 331 Manufacture of other means of transport 438 424 494 429 517 538 570 543 Manufacture of furniture 413 219 489 215 201 254 228 289 Other industrial activities n.e.c 371 226 339 221 372 279 439 316 Repair and maintenance of machines and equipment 446 311 474 308 395 384 377 410 PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY OF ELECTRIC POWER, HEATING , GAS, HOT WATER, AND AIR CONDITIONING 662 606 649 598 678 746 680 718 WATER SUPPLY ; SANITATION, 314 WASTE MANAGEMENT , DECONTAMINATION ACTIVITIES 313 312 286 358 320 371 337 Water catchment, treatment and supply 354 412 355 391 395 475 408 499 Collection and treatment of waste water 329 412 354 367 358 483 379 472 Collection, treatment and disposal of 244 wastes; recycling of reusable materials; decontamination activities and services 289 211 250 253 280 272 297 342 397 336 390 584 374 457 414 474 473 484 504 Source: Authors’ own calculations based on NIS and NBR data Appendix A.24: Share of the gross operating surplus and compensation of employees in the gross value added, in 2003 (%) Textiles, ready-mades Compensation of employees Gross operating surplus 76.2 22.9 Food industry , beverages and tobacco products 27.2 71.8 Wooden products, furniture and other industrial products 52.9 46.8 Chemistry and synthetic fibre 82.4 15.9 Rubber and plastic materials 34.5 65.2 Metallurgy and steel making 90.5 8.9 Means of transport 53.3 46.2 Machine building 71.4 30.9 Electrical products and appliances 56.6 42.8 Electricity, heating , gas, water 49.1 50.4 Total economy 42.2 57.9 Source: Authors’ own compilation based on data from National Accounts 2012–2013 , NIS , Bucharest, 2016 References Artus, Patrick 2014 Une nouvelle vague des delocalisations se profile Natixis 425 Backer, Gary 1997 Human Capital—A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with a Focus on Education [Capitalul uman—o analiză teoretică şi empirică cu referire specială la educaţie] Bucharest: Editura All [Publishing House] Barry, Bluestone, and Harisson Bennett 1982 The Deindustrialization of America New York: Basic Books http://www.d.umn.edu/ ~epeters5/Cst1201/Articles/Deindustrialization%20of%20America.pdf Belhocine, N., and S Dell’Erba 2013 The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads IMF Working Paper, WP/13/93, May Burritt, Roger, and Katherine Christ 2016 Industry 4.0 and Environmental Accounting: A New Revolution? 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World Bank 2017 Doing Business 2017 Equal Opportunity for All Washington: World Bank, p 234 World Economic Forum 2016 The Global Competitiveness Report 2016–2017 Geneva: WEF, pp 304–305 Zaman, Gheorghe, and George Georgescu 2012 Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability—Warning Levels for Romania In Non-Linear Modelling in Economics Beyond Standard Economics , 228–265 New York: Addleton Academic Publishers ——— 2016 Provocări ỵn perioada tranziției la economia de piață ỵn România Creșterea gradului de ỵndatorare internă și externă Revista Studii de Istorie Economică și Istoria Gândirii Economice September, Vol XVII Index A Academic Accession to the EU Accession Treaty Access to capital markets Access to critical inputs Access to energy and raw materials Access to financial and human capital Access to resources Adverse spillbacks Aerospace Ageing population Agencies Agreements Agriculture Agro-food Artus, P Assets Austria Automation Automotive industry Average salary Average turnover B Backer, G Balance of payments Balance of resources-uses Banking system Belgium Belhocine, N Bernard, A Biotechnologies Bluestone, B Brazil Bulgaria Burritt, R Business environment Business internationalization Business services C Capital markets Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) Cecchetti, S.G Centralized economy Chatillon, A Chemical industry Chilosi, A China Chiriac, C Chivu, L Christ, K Ciutacu, C Comparative advantages Competition Competitiveness factors Convergence Creative industries Croatia Current account deficits Cyprus Czech Rep D Dacia Darvas, Z Decline in manufacturing Deflator Deindustrialization Dell’Erba, S Demographic depletion Denmark Depreciation Destructuring Developing countries Dimitriu, R Domestic production Durable goods E Economic and financial crisis Economic crisis Economic development Economic growth Economic reforms Economic sectors Education Employed in industry Employers Employment Employment rate Energy sector Entrepreneurship Equity funds Equity investment Estonia Etzkowitz, H EU member states Europe 2020 Strategy European Commission (EC) European funds European Parliament European structural and cohesion funds European Union (EU) Eurostat Exchange rates Export support capabilities External debt External financial situation External indebtedness Extraction/mining industries F Financial flows Financial resources Financial stability Finland Fiscal deficits Fitjar, R.D Fixed assets Food industry Foreign capital Foreign exchange transactions Foreign investors Foreign trade Fourth industrial revolution France G Gap between Romania and the other EU member states Georgescu, G Georgescu, L Germany Gjelsvik, M Global crisis Global McKinsey Institute Gold Government bureaucracy Grabas, C Greece Gross domestic product (GDP) Gross operating surplus (GOS) Gross production, intermediate consumption, and the gross value added Gross value added (GVA) Gross wages H Harisson, B Häusermann, S Health system Heating Heavy industry Heymann, D Hoareau, C Horizon 2020 Human capital Human resources Hungary Huttl, P I ICEX Important privatizations Income India Indices of gross Industrial clusters Industrial companies Industrial competitiveness Industrial culture Industrial decomposition Industrialization Industrial landscape Industrial policies Industrial production Industrial renaissance Industrial revolution Industrial ventures Industrial welfare states Industry 4.0 Inflation Information and communication technology (ICT) Infrastructure Innovation index Input prices Intellectual property Intelligent materials Intelligent products Intergenerational equity Internal market Internationalization International Monetary Fund (IMF) International trade International value chains Investments Ireland Istituto per il Commercio l’Estero (ICE) Italy J Japan JETRO Jewellery Jobs Journalists Jung, J Junker Plan K Key enabling technologies Key sectors Know-how Knowledge Komlos, J KOTRA L Labour costs Labour markets Labour productivity Latvia Lithuania Local administration Local authorities Local capital Local development Luxembourg M Macroeconomic Main groups of industrial products Malta Management Employee Buyouts (MEBO) Manufacture of electrical equipment Manufacture of furniture Manufacture of machines, machinery and equipment n.e.c Manufacture of other means of transport Manufacture of other products from non-metallic minerals Manufacturing industry Marconi, G Market failures Meliciani, V Metallurgical industry Mexico Micro-enterprises Migration Minimum wage Mining industries Ministero dell’ Economia e delle Finanze Ministero dello Sviluppo Economico Ministry of Public Finance (MPF) Mohanty, M.S Multinational companies N National Bank of Romania (NBR) National currency National economy National gross production National Institute of Statistics (NIS) National market National policies National value chain Natural reserves Netherlands Net international investment position (NIIP) New industrial policies New materials New member states (NMS) New technologies Nutzenadel, A O OECD, see Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Optical devices Optimum mix Organic production Organisation and the cultural factor Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Ownership P Palier, B Physical production Pisano, G Poland Population Portugal Postal savings Poverty Pre-accession period Private sector Privatisation Production of goods and services Production-related taxes Production remaining on stock Productivity Public administration Public indebtedness Public sector Purchasing power standards R Ranga, M Raw materials Real index of the gross production Regional Relocation Renewable sources Research and development (R&D) Research, development and innovation Restructuring process Restructurings Rienzo, C Risk factors Ritzen, J Robotics Rodrigues–Pose, A Rodrik, D Romania Romanian Academy Romanian economy Russia S Savona, M Schwab, K Scrap iron Sectoral changes Sectoral structures Service sector Shareholder value Shih, W Skills Slovakia Slovenia Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) Smart processing Smeets, V South Korea Sovereign risk Spain Specializations Stakeholders Standardization Stand-by agreements Steel industry Steel production Stiglitz, J.E Stock exchanges Strategic areas Subran, L Subsidies per product Sustainability Sustainable development Sweden System of National Accounts Szirmai, A T Talents Targets Taxation Technology transfers Telegdy, Á Threshold Tobacco products Top-to-bottom Tractors Trade balance Trade union Transfer of property Transfer prices Transformations Transition period Transition to the market economy Triple Helix U UBIFRANCE UKTI, see UK Trade and investment (UKTI) UK Trade and investment (UKTI) Uncertainty Uncompetitive Underdeveloped infrastructures Unemployment Unfair competition United Kingdom (UK) United States (US) Universities University–industry–government Unskilled labourers Unsustainable growth US Commercial Service US Government V Valorise Value added in industry Value chains Vargas-Silva, C Vegetal oils Venture capital Vertical and horizontal policies Vertical integration Vlad, I.V Vocational training W Wages Warehousing Warning level Warzynski, F Waste management Waste recycling Water supply Wealth Wealth and income distribution Western Europe Wnukowski, D World Bank (WB) World Economic Forum World markets World Steel Association World steel production World trade World Trade Organisation (WTO) Z Zaman, Gh Zampolli, F Footnotes Note: Page number followed by ‘n’ denotes note ...Luminiţa Chivu, Constantin Ciutacu and George Georgescu Deindustrialization and Reindustrialization in Romania Economic Strategy Challenges Luminiţa Chivu National Institute for Economic. .. Netherlands , 2.6 times in France and so on Compared to 1990, in 2016 industrial output increased, in real terms, in Spain by 1%, in Portugal by 6%, in France by 7%, in the Netherlands by 17%, in Finland... (10.6% in Malta , 13.0% in United Kingdom , 13.4% in Greece , 13.9% in France , 15.0% in Netherlands , 16.7% in Belgium and Latvia , 17.8% in Spain , 18.5% in Romania , 18.8% in Denmark , 19.3% in
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