Bioeconomics of Invasive Species Bioeconomics of Invasive Species Integrating Ecology, Economics, Policy, and Management Edited by Reuben P Keller David M Lodge Mark A Lewis Jason F Shogren Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2009 by Oxford University Press, Inc Published by Oxford University Press, Inc 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 http://www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bioeconomics of invasive species : integrating ecology, economics, policy, and management/edited by Reuben P Keller [et al.] p cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 978-0-19-536798-0; 978-0-19-536797-3 (pbk.) Biological invasions I Keller, Reuben P QH353.B53 2009 577′.18—dc22 2008030333 987654321 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper Foreword This is a book that all ecologists and economists interested in bioeconomics should read The master narrative encompassing a bi-disciplinary framework and endogenous risk makes it intuitively and logically appealing A narrative that can be generalized in such a straightforward manner constitutes a forceful principle for organizing research and for informing policy The work here should leave even the disciplinary isolationist interested in studying more about what a joint determination framework can offer Invasive species are a major environmental policy challenge They continue to alter, often in undesirable ways, the workings of ecosystems around the globe This book provides general and species-specific overviews of ecological and economic tools and also consensus propositions for studying interactions of the determinants and behaviors of invasive species It treats lessons from past attempts to understand and to manage invasive species It also suggests strategies for understanding and combating the threats to environmental and economic well-being that nonindigenous species pose Readers will get a thorough treatment of the relevant scientific issues as well as a comprehensive review of the analytical and the empirical tools used by ecologists and economists to research invasive aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna in North America and around the world Pleas for collaboration between ecologists and economists to advance understanding and resolution of environmental problems are so commonplace as to be almost hackneyed When adherents of each disciplinary personality try to work together, they usually lapse into discord, followed by retreat into remote if not totally separated intellectual pursuits Most ecologists and economists see only dimly how to clarify assumptions about their respective disciplines The book provides a master narrative in which ecological and economic expertise complement and make each area more robust than were it to stand alone Ecological and economic systems each mediate the behaviors of the opposite system The appropriate focus is the decision maker working in her or his environment, for in reality, neat separation of natural and human activities does not exist A species’ initial invasion, establishment, spatial spread, and temporal persistence influences and is influenced by abiotic and biotic processes and by individual and institutionalized human decisions Decision makers adapt to environmental change by changing their personal behaviors as well as by directly changing a particular environment Interactions and feedback between and among systems and system scales influence the structure, resilience, and dynamics of respective systems Thus, jointly determined vision encourages individuals from each discipline to consider and understand what the other brings to the table Each discipline is thereby forced to better scrutinize and document the information needs of the other Such a vision supplies a framework for fostering sharper questions as well as sharper and smarter answers This volume makes betterinformed outcomes possible The focus of this book is on the bioeconomic behavioral roots of invasive species Evaluation techniques (e.g., energy analysis, benefit–cost analysis) take a secondary role The authors primarily address what does happen rather than what should happen They present empirical illustrations demonstrating that the joint determination vision produces different answers from those arising from a framework based solely on either the ecological or the economic system Framing the causal relations between the ecology and the economics of invasive species as reciprocating systems does not imply that researchers should reform their entire set of ecological and economic tools or the tenets these tools have uncovered Similar tools will likely be employed to develop propositions and to extract empirical results, whatever framework is used It is possible for model components to become so entangled in a web of interconnectedness, especially when some components are ill defined, that explanatory power is lost rather than gained Parsimony can trump completeness, implying that there has to be some limit to the reciprocal coupling of the ecological and the economic components of an environmental model Some intellectual separation is necessary to mark distinctions in system integration and to assure empirical content This book acknowledges the parsimony–completeness tradeoff Given limited research budgets and policy goals, this tradeoff immediately brings up the question of those facets of an invasive species model for which accuracy (unbiasedness) and precision (low variability across independent measurements) are especially important Though the authors offer no firm answers to this question, the background they provide on invasive species will help formulate answers A key extension of joint determination runs throughout the book Uncertainty, irreversibilities, and timing issues almost always characterize invasive species problems Uncertainty about causes or consequences shifts the focus to endogenous risk, a scenario in which decision makers can try to alter the risks (the product of probability and severity, if realized) of the establishment, spread, and persistence of an invasive species An endogenous-risk focus has the potential to make less costly the tradeoff between model parsimony and completeness A careful reading of this book strongly conveys this impression Whatever the issue, complexity and ambiguity tempt policy makers and even scientific experts to wrap themselves in a cloak of objectivity by picking and choosing the scientific results they deem relevant The authors are alert to this temptation Policy makers and experts must often transfer findings from existing original studies to new areas of scientific or policy interest Several chapters here consider the transfer question They ponder both the theoretical underpinnings of the question and its statistical and computational treatment In particular, the authors recognize that combining information from multiple sources and models of a common phenomenon can produce parameter estimates corresponding more closely to a new setting than can any single source The book concludes with an appealing human touch The editors recall and reflect upon the successes and failures of their research and their attempts to communicate and to convince the public and policy makers about the causes and likely consequences of invasive species problems They view their records of success as mixed This tentativeness is leavened by the cheery optimism of a young ecologist recounting what inspires him about invasive species research He nevertheless expresses bewilderment at the frequent reluctance of policy makers and the public to learn about and to accept scientific results Thomas D Crocker Department of Economics and Finance University of Wyoming Preface Biological invasions can drive global environmental change Biologists have explained the risks so that both the public and policy makers are now aware of the impacts of invasive species Economists are also taking greater interest in determining how invasive species interact with economic systems, and in how invaders should be controlled to increase societal welfare Disciplinary work by ecologists and economists expands our understanding of the drivers and impacts of invasions, but neither ecological nor economic systems operate in isolation This book provides a greater integration and synthesis of ecological and economic concepts and tools—a bioeconomic approach to understanding and managing invasive species Such an approach can help policy makers and the public determine optimal expenditures, for example, on preventing and controlling invasive species The Integrated Systems for Invasive Species (ISIS) team is a multi-institution collaboration among ecologists, economists, and mathematical biologists The team came together as a project funded by the U.S National Science Foundation and has met annually since 2000 (and conducted much research between meetings) to identify and address key questions about the bioeconomics of invasive species The questions and our best responses are presented here Our framework blends the work of the ISIS project with results from other researchers working on both disciplinary and interdisciplinary frontiers Our group’s composition ensures analytical and empirical rigor, as well as ecological and economic realism As society becomes more aware of global environmental change, people are demanding that policy makers address broader biological and economic realities This book has two related goals The first is to reinforce the role of bioeconomic research as the best approach to design policy and management systems for invasive species The second is to show how bioeconomic research can be conducted to generate realistic invasive species policy recommendations Throughout the ISIS project, we aim to place our bioeconomic research approach into a context that is useful to researchers and recurrent species introduction, 96–97 MAXENT system, ecological niche modeling, 66–67 maximum entropy principle, ecological niche modeling, 67 Maximum Principle deterministic dynamic optimization, 188 invader prevention strategies, control efforts, 193–194 optimization procedures, 201–202 measurement error, species invasions research, epistemic uncertainty from, 129–131 mechanical control model, rusty crayfish, 235–238 microeconomics, behavioral choice models, 182–190 migratory allopatry, salmon farming and sea lice invasion, 273–276 Mimosa pigra case study, nonindigenous species distribution, 116–118 modern data set construction, rusty crayfish invasion studies, 230–232 moment-generating function, hydrologic dispersal, nonindigenous species, 108–109 Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrap procedures, 135–136 Morton, Alexandra, 273–274 multiple logistic regression, bioeconomic modeling, rusty crayfish invasion, 229–232 National Science Foundation (NSF), invasive species research, 268–269 natural dispersal, nonindigenous species distribution, 105–109 aerial dispersal, 108–109 animal-mediated dispersal, 108 hydrologic dispersal, 105–108 no-ballast-on-board (NABOB) status, nonindigenous species introduction and Laurentian Great Lakes case study, 209–215 management options, Great Lakes case study, 221 nonextinction, propagule pressure theory, stochastic analysis, 85 Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act of 1990, 269–270 nonindigenous species (NIS) dispersal and spread prediction and estimation anthropogenic dispersal, 109–115 dispersal mechanisms, 104–115 future research issues, 120–121 management guidelines, 118–120 natural dispersal, 105–109 population spread, 115–118 research overview, 103–104 Laurentian Great Lakes invasive species management case study geographic and historical background, 207–209 modeling and policy initiatives, 220–221 overview, 205–207 predatory water fleas, 215–218 round goby, 219–220 vector and timing determination, 209–215 zebra and quagga mussels, 218–219 linguistic uncertainty concerning, 128 nonmarket valuation applications inevitable risk evaluation, 157–166 rationality principles, 166–171 risk preference experiments, 171–177 willingness-to-pay measurement, 156–157 dreissenid species invasion control, 254–257 integrated bioeconomic invasive species management, 37–39 invasive species, overview, 151–152 terminology, 152–156 nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR), ecological niche modeling, 66–67 nonstatistical methods, ecological niche modeling, 67–68 North American Great Lakes ecosystem, research overview on, 20–21 null hypotheses, economic value of ecosystem management, 165–166 numerical solutions, rusty crayfish control model, 235–236 Oak trees (Quercus spp.), invasive species and destruction of, observation techniques, ecological niche modeling, 66 offspring distribution, propagule pressure theory, dose-response curves, 90–93 100th Meridian Initiative dreissenid mussel control research, 245–247 gravity model formulation, 133–134 opportunity costs, invasive species management preferences and, 151–152 optimal control strategy, rusty crayfish control models, 237–238 optimization behavioral choice models, 183–190 deterministic dynamic perspective, 185–187 deterministic dynamic perspective, 187–188 invader prevention strategies control allocation, 197–199 homogeneous network, 190–195 invasion stopping, 198–199 optimum protection threshold, bioeconomic modeling, rusty crayfish invasion, 230–232 ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator economic value of ecosystem management, 162–166 willingness to pay and, 177n.2 outcome models, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 59–60 pairwise ordering, gravity model predictions, 137–139 panfish population declines, bioeconomic modeling, rusty crayfish invasion, 230–232 parameter valuation, uncertainty, 145 pathway-based risk analysis, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 46–47 pattern analysis, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 49–51 persistence, propagule pressure theory, stochastic analysis, 85 Phytophthora ramorum, nonindigenous species distribution, anthropogenic dispersal, 109–115 Poisson distribution, propagule pressure theory, recurrent species introduction, 96–97 policy options integrated bioeconomic invasive species management, Yellowstone lake case study, 34–35 integrated bioeconomic modeling and, 278–281 invasive species bioeconomics, 8–10 results communication and improvement of, 268 science/policy interactions, salmon farming and sea lice invasion case study, 273– 276 trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 56–57 economic outcome models, 59–60 U.S Federal invasive species policies, 267–271 political impediments, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 56–57 population explosion theory, dose-response curves, 91–93 population spread models, nonindigenous species distribution, 115–118 predator-prey ecosystem, integrated bioeconomic invasive species management and, 31–35 prediction research and techniques dreissenid mussel species introductions, 247–249 gravity model evaluation, 139–140 uncertainty and, 137–144 predictive occurrence model, rusty crayfish invasion studies, 229–232, 230–232 predictive trait identification, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 48–51 preference reversals economic value and rational choice, 166–171 internet experiment at Yellowstone Lake and, 174–177 presence/absence data, ecological niche modeling, 66 limitations of, 74 pressure uncertainty, propagule pressure theory, dose-response curves, 88–93 prevention strategies bioeconomic modeling, rusty crayfish invasion, 229–232 decision-making responses to invasive species, 181–182 endogenous risk theory, 27–29 heterogeneous network, Allee effect, 195–199 homogeneous network, optimization of, 190–195 invasive species control and, nonindigenous species invasion, limitations of, 221–222 private property ideology, integrated invasive species management policies and, 280– 281 probabilities gravity model formulation, 134–135, 146–147 gravity model predictions, 139–140 trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 46 probability density function, propagule pressure theory dose-response curves, 90–93 Matricaria perforata case study, 93–95 producer surplus, economic value and, 153–156 production function, static behavioral choice models, 184–185 profits, behavioral choice models and role of, 183–190 propagule pressure theory, 20 dreissenid species establishment and dispersal, 250–254 ecological niche modeling, 71–72 gravity model formulation, 134–135 nonindigenous species distribution, 104 management options, 118–120 population-based models, 115–118 stochastic principles abundance, 86 Matricaria perforata case study, 93–95 persistence, 85 research overview, 83–84 spatial heterogeneity and, 95–96 synthesis, 98–100 public outreach campaigns dreissenid mussel control research, 246–247 salmon farming and sea lice invasion case study, 273–276 quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis) bioeconomics of invasion, 247 ecological-economic analyses costs of invasions, 254–257 establishment success and dispersal, 249–254 future research, 260–261 known distribution rates, 244–246 predictions of species introduction, 247–249 research background, 244–247 risk perception and human response, 257–260 freshwater ecosystem destruction, 5–7 gravity models of, 112–113, 131–137 Great Lakes Basin case study, 218–219 trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 56 qualitative analysis, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 50–51 quantitative analysis, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 50–51 rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), ecological niche modeling, 71–72 random-utility models (RUM), nonindigenous species distribution, 113–115 future research issues, 120–121 random variable, endogenous risk theory and, 29 rationality spillover design economic value and, 166–171 internet experiment at Yellowstone Lake and, 171–177 reaction-diffusion (RD) model, nonindigenous species distribution, population spread, 116–118 real options theory, endogenous risk and, 30–31 receiver operating characteristic (ROC), gravity model predictions, 141 recreational boating See also ship-ballast-vectored nonindigenous species introduction dreissenid species establishment and dispersal, 251–254 nonindigenous species introduction from, 214–215 recreational costs bioeconomic modeling, rusty crayfish invasion, 230–232 economic value of ecosystem management, 162–166 recurrent species introduction, propagule pressure theory, dose-response curves, 96–97 regression analysis economic value of ecosystem management, 164–166 rationality spillover model of economic value, 169–171 remove-all-lake-trout scenario, economic-ecological feedback models, 14–15 replacement costs, ecosystem value and, 154–156 researchers’ role ecological niche modeling and role of, 78–79 results communication for resource management and policy, 268 resource management and policy, results communication for, 268 risk analysis dreissenid species control models, 257–260 endogenous risk theory, 27–29 gravity models, 113 Great Lakes invasive species management case study, 276–278 integrated bioeconomic invasive species assessment and management, 26–27 nonindigenous species distribution, 119–120 propagule pressure theory, dose-response curves, 88–93 trait-based invasive species risk assessment bioeconomics of, 54–56 Categorical and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, 52–53 future research issues, 58–59 invasiveness trait identification, 49–53 limitations, 57–58 model estimation and validation, 53–54 outcome determination model, 59–60 policy adoption, 56–57 predictors of risk, 47–48 research background, 44–46 species-based risk analysis, 46–54 U.S Federal invasive species policies and, 270–271 romantic-conservation ethic, integrated invasive species management policies and, 280–281 round goby (Apollonia melanostoma), Great Lakes basin case study, 219–220 rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus) economic-ecological research on, 21 integrated bioeconomic modeling case study, 229–232 comparison of techniques, 238–241 efficient mechanical control model, 235–238 theoretical control model, 233–235 interactive research, 226–227 National Science Foundation research on, 268–269 Upper Midwest case study, 227–229 salmon farming and sea lice invasion case study, science/policy interactions, 271–276 scale of risk assessment, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 49–51, 57 science/policy interactions, salmon farming and sea lice invasion case study, 273–276 sea lamprey (Petromyzon marina) Laurentian Great Lakes case study, 207–208 successful control case study, sea louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis), salmon farming and, 272–276 security, invasive species management preferences and, 151–152 self-sustaining populations, of invasive species, 8–10 shadow pricing, integrated bioeconomic invasive species management, Yellowstone Lake case study, 34–35 ship-ballast-vectored nonindigenous species introduction See also recreational boating dreissenid species establishment and dispersal, 250–251 Laurentian Great Lakes case study, 209–215 Shogren, Jason, 278–281 silver carp (H molitrix), movement control of, 220 slow-the-spread programs, invasive species prevention, smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) biological control of rusty crayfish and, 233–235 ecological niche modeling, 71 spatial control distribution, invader prevention strategies, 197–199 spatial heterogeneity nonindigenous species distribution, 110–115 population spread, 116–118 propagule pressure theory, 95–96 spatially uniform steady-state solutions, rusty crayfish control model, 234–235 spatial scale, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 57 species distribution modeling aquatic species, 73–74 research issues, 79 static optimization, behavioral choice models, 182–185 statistical analysis, trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 50–52 stochastic principles dynamic programming (SDP) behavioral choice models, 182, 188–190 dose-response curves independent introductions, 88–93 recurrent introductions, 96–98 risk analysis, 86–88 dreissenid species control, 258–260 endogenous risk theory, 28–29 propagule pressure and establishment abundance, 86 Matricaria perforata case study, 93–95 persistence, 85 research overview, 83–84 spatial heterogeneity and, 95–96 synthesis, 98–100 static behavioral choice models, 185 structural uncertainty, propagule pressure theory, dose-response curves, 88–93 supply-demand issues economic value of ecosystem services, 152–156 integrated bioeconomic invasive species management, 37–39 support vector machine (SVM), ecological niche modeling, 68 sustainability initiatives, salmon farming and sea lice invasive case study, 274–276 systematic error, species invasions research, epistemic uncertainty from, 129–131 Teton National Park, rationality spillover model of economic value and, 166–171 theoretical research bioeconomic modeling, rusty crayfish invasion, 233–235 integrated bioeconomic modeling, research overview, 227 threshold indicators invader prevention strategies, control efforts, 193–194 propagule pressure theory, abundance, 86 time horizons, invader prevention strategies, homogeneous network, 192–195 timing of environmental change, economic value of delaying the inevitable and, 157– 166 total surplus, economic value and, 152–153 trade and trade regions economics of invasive species and, 11–15 as invasive species vector, 156–157 trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 57 trait-based invasive species risk assessment bioeconomics of, 54–56 Categorical and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, 52–53 future research issues, 58–59 invasiveness trait identification, 49–53 limitations, 57–58 model estimation and validation, 53–54 outcome determination model, 59–60 policy adoption, 56–57 predictors of risk, 47–48 research background, 44–46 species-based risk analysis, 46–54 trait suite analysis dreissenid species invasion prediction, 248–249 trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 48–51 trapping systems, mechanical control model, rusty crayfish, 237–238 traveling-wave solutions, rusty crayfish control model, 234–236 trawling systems, mechanical control model, rusty crayfish, 237–238 3-Trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM), sea lamprey control, two-way fixed-effects model, rationality spillover model of economic value, 169–171 uncertainty bioeconomic modeling and, 20 endogenous risk theory and, 28–29 gravity model formulation, 132–134 propagule pressure theory, dose-response curves, 88–93 sources of, 145 species invasions, biological perspective bootstrapping confidence intervals, 135–136 epistemic uncertainty, 129–131 future research issues, 144–147 linguistic uncertainty, 128 order of invasion, 134–135 prediction and, 137–144 research overview, 126–127 sources of uncertainty, 127–128 variable and model selection and evaluation, 136–137 zebra mussels gravity model of arrival, 131–137 summary of research, 144–147 Upper Midwest, rusty crayfish invasion case study, 227–229 U.S Federal policy, ecological-economic modeling, 267–271 validation trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 53–54 willingness-to-pay estimates, 165–166 variable estimation, gravity models, 136–137 vector mechanisms dreissenid species establishment and dispersal, 249–251 invasive species invasion and feedback, 8–10 Laurentian Great Lakes case study, 208–215 management options, 220–221 viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS) nonindigenous species introduction, 214–215 round gobies and spread of, 220 waiting time distribution gravity model formulation, 146–147 propagule pressure theory, recurrent species introduction, 96–97 water flea (Bythtrephes longimanus), Great Lakes Basin case study, 215–218 water flea (Cercopagis pengoi), Great Lakes Basin case study, 215–218 water quality data, dreissenid species establishment and dispersal, 250, 255–257 watershed management, gravity model formulation, 132–134 welfare function behavioral choice models, deterministic dynamic perspective, 185–187 dreissenid species control models, 256–257 whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), Laurentian Great Lakes case study, 207–208 wildlife lotteries, economic value and rational choice, 167–171, 178n.3 willingness to accept (WTA), economic value and, 153–156 willingness to pay (WTP) economic value and, 153–156, 177nn.1–2 impact chart of invasive species, 159–166 invasive species management and, 156–166 lifetime utility models, economic value of delaying environmental change, 159–166 World Trade Organization (WTO), trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 45 worst-case scenario, integrated bioeconomic invasive species management, Yellowstone lake case study, 34–35 Yellowstone Lake cutthroat trout population management, 31–35 internet experiment at, 171–177 rationality spillover model of economic value and, 166–171 zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) bioeconomics of invasion, 247 ecological-economic analyses costs of invasions, 254–257 establishment success and dispersal, 249–254 future research, 260–261 known distribution rates, 244–246 predictions of species introduction, 247–249 research background, 244–247 risk perception and human response, 257–260 ecological niche modeling, 68–71 economic-ecological research on, 21 freshwater ecosystem destruction, 5–7 gravity models of, 111–113 uncertainty and, 131–137 Great Lakes Basin case study, 218–219 hydrologic dispersal, 105–106 integrated bioeconomic management case study, 27, 35–36 invader prevention strategies, control and eradication, 195 Allee effect, 195–199 static behavioral choice models, 183–185 trait-based invasive species risk assessment, 56 .. .Bioeconomics of Invasive Species Bioeconomics of Invasive Species Integrating Ecology, Economics, Policy, and Management Edited by Reuben P Keller David... prior permission of Oxford University Press Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bioeconomics of invasive species : integrating ecology, economics, policy, and management/ edited... interactions of the determinants and behaviors of invasive species It treats lessons from past attempts to understand and to manage invasive species It also suggests strategies for understanding and combating