A political economy of the middle east

Westview Press was founded in 1975 in Boulder, Colorado, by notable publisher and intellectual Fred Praeger Westview Press continues to publish scholarly titles and high-quality undergraduate and graduate-level textbooks in core social science disciplines With books developed, written, and edited with the needs of serious nonfiction readers, professors, and students in mind, Westview Press honors its long history of publishing books that matter Copyright © 2015 by Westview Press Published by Westview Press, A Member of the Perseus Books Group 2465 Central Avenue Boulder, CO 80301 www.westviewpress.com All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews Every effort has been made to secure required permissions for all text, images, maps, and other art reprinted in this volume Westview Press books are available at special discounts for bulk purchases in the United States by corporations, institutions, and other organizations For more information, please contact the Special Markets Department at the Perseus Books Group, 2300 Chestnut Street, Suite 200, Philadelphia, PA 19103, or call (800) 810-4145, ext 5000, or e-mail special.markets@perseusbooks.com Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Cammett, Melani Claire, 1969– A political economy of the Middle East / Melani Cammett, Brown University, Ishac Diwan, Harvard University, Alan Richards, University of California, Santa Cruz, JoÚ Waterbury, University of Beirut, NYU Abu Dhabi — Fourth edition pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 978-0-8133-4939-8 (e-book) Middle East—Economic conditions—1979– Middle East—Economic policy Working class —Middle East Middle East—Politics and government—1979– I Diwan, Ishac II Richards, Alan, 1946– III Richards, Alan, 1946– Political economy of the Middle East IV Title HC415.15.C36 2015 330.956—dc23 2015001543 10 CONTENTS List of Illustrations Preface Acronyms and Abbreviations INTRODUCTION AND FRAMEWORK OF THE STUDY The Arab Uprisings of 2011: How Did We Get There? Cross-Regional Variation in the Arab Uprisings A Political Economy Framework The Three Pillars of the Framework: The State, the Economy, and Society Resource Endowments and Political Development Prolonged Discontent: Toward a Political Economy of the Arab Uprisings The Role of Political Islam in the Arab Uprisings Conclusions ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND SOCIAL OUTCOMES Long-Term Growth with Modest Results Three Phases of Development The Inheritance from the Past: The Effects of Fiscal Retrenchment Social Outcomes Conclusions: Performance Since the Revolutions and the Economic Challenges Ahead POLITICAL REGIMES IN THE MIDDLE EAST Economies, Political Regimes, and Governance in the Middle East The Historical Foundations of State-Building in the Middle East Political Regimes in the Post-Independence Middle East Conclusions THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE Comparative Demographic Patterns The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change How Labor Markets Adjusted in the Face of Large Population Growth The Politics of Young Populations Conclusions HUMAN CAPITAL: HEALTH AND EDUCATION Social Sectors and Social Services Health Conditions Educational Systems Conclusions WATER AND FOOD SECURITY The Food Gap Policy Constraints on Output Growth Water and the Imperative of a New Food Security Strategy Conclusions THE RISE AND FALL OF STATE-LED DEVELOPMENT The State as Architect of Structural Transformation Atatürk and the Turkish Paradigm Replicating the Paradigm Contradictions of State-Led Growth The Resistance to Reforms Delaying Reforms and the Political Economy of Structural Adjustment Conclusions STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT AND THE RISE OF CRONY CAPITALISM The Washington Consensus Critics of the Washington Consensus and Alternatives Around the World The Development of Crony Capitalism in the MENA Region A Survey of Country Experiences Conclusions THE EFFECTS OF OIL ON DEVELOPMENT AND THE RISE OF THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL The Diverse Effects of Oil on Governance The Economics of Oil Conclusion: The Future of the GCC 10 WAR, CONFLICT, AND THE MILITARY IN THE MIDDLE EAST Military Spending and Development The Political and Economic Consequences of War and Militarization in the Middle East Political Settlements and the Military in the Middle East Conclusions 11 SOLIDARISM AND ITS ENEMIES: CIVIL SOCIETY AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST The Historical Record: Social Mobilization in the Middle East Mass Mobilization During the Arab Uprisings Formal and Informal Modes of Collective Action in the Middle East The Failure of Ideology Conclusions 12 IS ISLAM THE SOLUTION? Terminology and Typology Islamism as a Social Movement: Social Support Bases Islamism as a Social Movement: Collective Action Islamist Economic Thought and Practice Islamists in Power Conclusions 13 REGIONAL AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION Trade in Goods and Services The Formation of Oil Prices Capital Movement Labor Migration The Impact of Labor Migration on Sending Countries Conclusions 14 CONCLUSION References Index ILLUSTRATIONS TABLES 1.1 Gross Domestic Product, Oil Rents, and Country Classifications in the MENA Region, 2010 2.1 External Monetary Flows (as a percentage of GDP) in the MENA Region, 1970s to 2010 2.2 MENA Countries’ Government Expenditures (as a percentage of GDP) at Their Peak and at Their Bottom, Between 1986 and 2011 2.3 World Poverty Rates by Region (percentage living below $2 a day), 1990–2009 3.1 Political Regimes and Resource Endowment Groups in the Middle East 4.1 Demographic Indicators in the Middle East and in Other Regions of the World, 1980– 2011 4.2 Youth and Adult Literacy Rates in the MENA Countries and in Selected Global Regions, Circa 2013 4.3 Types of Family Planning Programs in the MENA Region 4.4 Female and Male Unemployment Rates in the MENA Countries, 2010 4.5 Female and Male Labor Force Participation Rates in the MENA Countries, 1990 and 2010 4.6 The Share of Public-Sector Employment in Selected MENA Economies in the 1990s vs the Latest Available Year 4.7 Peak, Low, and Recent Peak Wage Bills (as a percentage of GDP) Among the MENA Countries, 1990–2010 4.8 Value Added and Labor in Various Sectors of the MENA Countries, 1970, 1990, and the 2000s 5.1 Expenditures on Health and Education (as a percentage of GDP) in the MENA Countries, 1990s to 2010s 5.2 Basic Health Indicators: Life Expectancy at Birth and Infant Mortality, 1970–2011 5.3 Adult Illiteracy in the MENA Region, 1980–2010 5.4 Gross Primary School Enrollment in the MENA Countries, 1971–2010 5.5 Male and Female Enrollment, Secondary and Tertiary Education, in the MENA Countries, 1971–2010 6.1 Renewable Water Resources in the MENA Countries, 2013 7.1 Growth in GDP per Capita in the MENA Countries, per Decade and Across Political Economy Subgroups, 1961–2010 7.2 MENA Resource Gaps, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2003 7.3 External Debt over GDP in the MENA Countries, 1970–2010 8.1 Public and Private Investment (as a percentage of GDP) in the MENA Region, 1971– 2010 9.1 The Labor Force in the Gulf States, 2010 9.2 Oil Rents, Oil Exports and Revenues, Government Revenues, and Public-Private Investment in Selected Middle Eastern Countries, 2010 10.1 Average Military, Education, and Public Health Spending (as a percentage of GDP) Across the MENA Region and in Other Regions of the World, 2000–2012 10.2 Types of Wars by Global Region, 1816–2007 10.3 Peak, Low, and Recent Peak Expenditures on Security and Defense (as percentages of GDP) in the MENA Countries 12.1 The Performance of Islamist Parties in MENA Elections After the 2011 Arab Uprisings 13.1 MENA Export Performance, 1971–2010 13.2 Oil Rents in the MENA Region (share of GDP) by Country, 1970–2010 13.3 Pledges (in billions of US dollars) by the GCC Countries During 2011–2013 to Support Countries in Transition 13.4 Characteristics of Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment (in billions of US dollars) in the MENA Region, 2003–2012 13.5 Refugees in and from Various Middle East Countries, 2012 13.6 The Arab Migrant Labor Force in Arab Countries, 2010 13.7 Personal Remittances Received from Migrant Workers (as a percentage of GDP), by Country, 1961–2010 FIGURES 1.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.10 The Three Main Axes of Middle Eastern Political Economy Gross Domestic Product per Capita in the MENA Countries, 2010 Economic Growth in the MENA Region and in Other Regions of the World, 1960–2010 Annual GDP Growth Rate for MENA Countries and World Middle-Income Countries, 1960–2010 Oil Rents for MENA Countries and Crude Oil Prices (in billions of 2010 US dollars), 1960–2010 Public and Private Investment (as a percentage of GDP) in the MENA Countries and in Other Regions of the World, 1971–2010 Manufacturing in the MENA Countries and Other Regions of the World, Value Added (as a percentage of GDP), 1970–2010 Export Performance (as a percentage of GDP) in the MENA Countries and Other Regions of the World, 1971–2010 State Expenditures (as a share of GDP) in the MENA Region, 1962–2010 The Rule of Law by Political Economy Subgroup, 1996–2011 The Rule of Law by Country, Clustered by Political Economy Subgroup, 2010 Government Effectiveness by Political Economy Subgroup, 2003–2012 Government Effectiveness by Country, Clustered by Political Economy Subgroup, 2010 Corruption by Political Economy Subgroup, 2003–2012 Perceived Corruption by Country, Clustered by Political Economy Subgroup, 2010 Repression by Political Economy Subgroup, 1981–2011 Repression by Country, Clustered by Political Economy Subgroup, 2010 Political Freedoms and Rights by Political Economy Subgroup, 1981–2010 Political Freedoms and Rights by Country, Clustered by Political Economy Subgroup, 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.3 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 2010 Per Capita Gross National Income and Fertility Rates in MENA Countries in the Early 2000s Distribution of Population by Age and Sex in Algeria, the United States, and Egypt, 2012 Years to Double MENA Populations at 2000–2010 Average Growth Rates Demographic and Labor Force Participation Trends in the MENA Region, the 1990s Through the 2010s Share of Israeli Jews and Palestinian Arabs in Israel and in the West Bank and Gaza, 2005 and 2010 Average Rate of HDI Gains of the MENA Countries, 1970–2010 and 1990–2010 Infant Mortality Rates in Various World Regions, 2011 Lifetime Risk of Maternal Death Around the World, 2010 Infant Mortality in the MENA Region as a Function of Gross National Income per Capita, 2011 Malnutrition in the Major World Regions, 2011 Adult Illiteracy in the MENA Region as a Function of Gross National Income per Capita, 2010 The Gender Gap in Primary School Enrollment in the MENA Countries, 2007 Private-Sector Share of Total Enrollments in Selected MENA Countries, Early 1990s MENA Water Use by Sector, 2013 Per Capita Agricultural Growth in the MENA Countries, 1980–2010 Cultivated Land Under Irrigation in the MENA Countries, 1980–2011 Employment Composition by Sector in Selected Economies in the MENA Region, 2005– 2010 Perceptions of Corruption in the Public and Private Sectors in Selected MENA Countries Regional Distribution of Exports in Turkey, 2002–2012 Public and Private Investment in Egypt, 1985–2011 Percentage of Firms in Selected MENA Countries and Cities That Agree That Government Officials’ Interpretations of the Laws and Regulations Are Not Applied Consistently Crude Oil Prices and Oil Revenues Among the GCC Countries, Iran, Iraq, and Algeria, 1998–2010 Estimated Number of Years of Remaining Oil Production in the GCC Countries and the United States, as of 2005 Public and Private Investment in the GCC, 1974–2010 Sovereign Wealth Funds Around the World (in billions of US dollars) Military Expenditures (as a percentage of GDP) in the MENA Countries and MiddleIncome Countries, by Political Economy Subgroup, 1988–2012 Average Military Expenditures (as a percentage of GDP) in the MENA Countries, 2000– 2012 The Relationship Between Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East, 1993–2010 US Military Aid by Global Region, 1948–2011 Oman female labor participation rates in, 133 primary school enrollment in, 177–178 state-led economic development in, 255–256 OPEC See Organization of the Oil-Exporting Countries Operation Desert Storm, 366 Operation Protective Edge, 121 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations, in MENA political regimes within, 74, 118–121 See also Israel; Turkey Organization of the Oil-Exporting Countries (OPEC), 328, 486–491 Organized labor, 415–419 in Algeria, 416 in Tunisia, 200, 417 Oriental Despotism, 324 Oriental Jews, in Israel, 404 Oslo Accords, 227 OTRI See Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index Ottoman Empire capitulation treaties in, 91 devishirme in, 89 European colonialism within, 95 fiscal crises in, 92 through ilitizam system, 91 Janissaries in, 89 khedive in, 93 millet system in, 89 private property systems in, 90 rule of sultan in, 89 rural development strategies in, 91 rural notability in, 93 Sharia law in, 89 sipahis in, 90 state-building in, 88–94 Tanzimat programs in, 93 timar system in, 89 under Treaty of Lausanne, 97 Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index (OTRI), 317n9 Owen, Roger, 285, 319 ÖYAK See Armed Forces Mutual Assistance Fund Özal, Turgut, 118, 269 PA See Palestine Authority Pahlavi, Mohammed Reza, 250 Palestine DOP and, 120, 156 June War of 1967 and, 120 legal age of marriage in, 138 literacy rates in, 174 Mandates in, 94 oil rents in, 43–44 Operation Protective Edge and, 121 political protests in, poverty levels in, 66 as RPLA nation, 26 under Sykes-Picot Agreement, 95 water use in, 222 Palestine Authority (PA), 121 Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), 120 Parks, Thomas, 10 Pasdaran See Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Persianization, 192 Piketty, Thomas, 68 PISA See Program for International Student Assessment PLO See Palestine Liberation Organization Polanyi, Karl, 54, 278 Political corruption See Corruption, political Political cronyism See Cronyism, political Political economic development Arab uprisings influenced by, 9–11, 26–31 authoritarian coalitions and, evolution of, 28–30 in burgeoning states, 14 economic growth and, 11–12 economic performance and, 11–12, 15–20 inclusive institutions and, 10 main axes of, 12 (fig.) in MENA, trajectories for, 11 middle class and, 28–30 resource endowments and, 23–26, 75 (table) social actors as part of, 12, 20–23 social change and, 28–30 state influence on, 11–15 Political elites allocation of oil revenues to, 25 economic growth influenced by, 12 Political freedom in MENA region, 85–86, 87 (fig.) in RPLA nations, 87 (fig.) in RRLA nations, 87 (fig.) in RRLP nations, 87 (fig.) Political parties, in MENA region, 408–414 party membership levels in, 409–410, 410 (fig.) public confidence in, 409 (fig.) See also specific parties Political protests See Arab uprisings; Mass mobilization; specific nations Political regimes See Regimes, political Political repression, in MENA region, 84 (fig.), 85 (fig.) Political settlements development of, 11 in Egypt, 99, 101–104, 370 in Middle East, 10–11 military influences on, 369–385 under state-led economic development, 22 in Sudan, 370–371 in Tunisia, 101–104 Population demographics, changes in in Algeria, 139 (fig.) CBR and, 126 economic consequences of, 138–141 fertility determinants, 126–136 in MENA region, 128 (table), 157 (fig), 157 (fig.) in US, 139 (fig.) for youth population, 139–140 See also Population growth; Youth bulge; Youth populations Population determinism, 125 Population growth capital deepening influenced by, 140 economic development influenced by, 138 job-seekers with, rapid increases in, 142–143 labor market adjustments with, 141–153 in MENA region, 140–141, 141 (fig.), 158 Post-Washington Consensus, 281 Poverty in MENA region, 65–67, 66 (table), 296 world rates, by region, 66 (table) PPA See Algerian People’s Party Prasad, Ananthakrishnan, 338 Predatory states, 14–15 Primary school enrollment, 177–179, 178 (table) gender gap in, 179 (table) Private education, 191–193, 192 (fig.) Private formal sector employment, 149–150 Private investment in GCC nations, 347 (fig.) in MENA region, 284 (table), 294 (fig.) Private property, in Ottoman Empire, 90 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), 179 Property rights, under state-led economic development, 23 Protests See Arab uprisings; Street politics Public health spending, 358 (table) Public investment in GCC, 347 (fig.) in MENA region, 63, 239, 254, 284 (table), 294 (fig.) Public-sector employment, 148–149, 149 (table) Putnam, Robert, 403 Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), 397 Qarawiyyin, 187 Qasim, Abd al-Karim, 245 Qatar, 116 agricultural development in, 215 education spending allocations in, 182 energy subsidies in, 346 ethnic and religious diversity in, 155–156 female labor participation rates in, 133 life expectancy rates in, 168 literacy rates in, 174 social fragmentation in, 331 wasta systems in, 325 Rabin, Yitzhak, 120, 374 Rafsanjani, Akbar Hashemi, 114, 312–313 RCC See Revolutionary Command Council RCD Party See Democratic Constitutional Rally Party Reform programs in Algeria, 308 Tanzimat, 93 in Turkey, 268–269 See also Constitutional reform; Economic reform; State-led economic development Refugees, 168 labor migration of, 501–502, 501 (table) See also Internally displaced persons Regime change in Egypt, 73 in Iran, 73–74 in North Yemen, 73 Regimes, political accountability in, 77 defined, 73 Freedom House evaluations, 75 government effectiveness and, 80 (fig.) 81 (fig.) in MENA region, 74–88 in OECD nations, 74, 118–121 patronage structures in, 76 political transparency in, 77 public participation and voice in, 77 in RPLA nations, 98–108 in RRLA nations, 108–115 in RRLP nations, 115–118 rule of law as influence on, 77 social coalitions in, 76 state capacity in, 78–79 See also Authoritarian regimes; Democratic regimes; Monarchy regimes Regulatory rents, 45 Religion, in Sudan political system, 112 Repression See Political repression, in MENA region Republican People’s Party (RPP), 97, 194, 237, 266 Resource curse authoritarian regimes influenced by, 76 oil as, 86–87, 319–320 in RRLP nations, 115 Resource endowments Dutch Disease and, 24 exploitation of, 15, 33n7 political development and, 23–26, 75 (table) See also Oil production; Oil-rich Arab nations Resource-poor labor-abundant (RPLA) nations, 26, 27 (table) authoritarian regimes in, 75–76, 98–104 civil service wages in, 63 crony capitalism in, 292–307 democratic regimes among, 107–108 GDP in, 36 government effectiveness in, 80 (fig.), 81 (fig.) monarchies in, 104–106 political corruption in, 81 political freedom in, 87 (fig.) political regimes in, 98–108 repression levels in, 84 (fig.), 85 (fig.) rule of law in, 78, 79 (fig.) SAPs in, 274 social fragmentation in, 332 state expenditures in, 60–61 translational republics, 98–104 unemployment issues in, 145 See also Middle East and North Africa region; specific nations Resource-rich labor-abundant (RRLA) nations, 26, 27 (table) authoritarian regimes in, 75–76, 519–520 civil service wages in, 63 crony capitalism in, 307–316 government effectiveness in, 80 (fig.), 81 (fig.) Islamic republics among, 113–115 oil as influence on governance in, 322 oil curse in, 86–87, 319–320 oil production in, 43 political corruption in, 81–82 political freedom in, 87 (fig.) political regimes in, 108–115 populist policies in, 88 repression levels in, 84 (fig.), 85 (fig.) rule of law in, 78, 79 (fig.) SAPs in, 274–275 social fragmentation in, 332 state capacity in, 327–328 state expenditures in, 60–61 welfare spending in, 63 See also Middle East and North Africa region; specific nations Resource-rich labor-poor (RRLP) nations, 25–26, 27 (table) GDP in, 35–36, 40–41 government effectiveness in, 80 (fig.), 81 (fig.) monarchies in, 116 oil as influence on governance in, 322 oil production in, 43, 115–116 political continuity in, 520 political corruption in, 81 political freedom in, 87 (fig.) political regimes in, 115–118 repression levels in, 84 (fig.), 85 (fig.) resource curse in, 115 rule of law in, 78, 79 (fig.) state capacity in, 328 state expenditures in, 60–61 See also Middle East and North Africa region; specific nations Revolutionary Command Council (RCC), 371, 403 Ricardo, David, 209–210 Richards, Alan, 174 Rijkers, Bob, 301 Rodrik, Dani, 279 Rouhani, Hassan, 114, 315 RPLA nations See Resource-poor labor-abundant nations RPP See Republican People’s Party RRLA nations See Resource-rich labor-abundant nations RRLP nations See Resource-rich labor-poor nations Rule of law in Libya, 78 in MENA region, by country, 79 (fig.) political regimes influenced by, 77 in RPLA nations, 78, 79 (fig.) in RRLA nations, 78, 79 (fig.) in RRLP nations, 78, 79 (fig.) Rule of sultan, 89 Rural development strategies in Ottoman Empire, 91, 93 in Saudi Arabia, 91 Rural education systems, 182–183 Rural regions, ISI benefits in, 21 Russia, economic privatization in, 280 Sabahi, Hamdeen, 104 Sadat, Anwar, 100, 242, 454 al-Sadr, Muhammad Baqir, 459 al-Sadr, Muqtada, 442 SAF See Sudanese Armed Forces Saharan War, 254 Said, Khaled, 427 Salafi Al-Nour Party, 103–104, 442 Saleh, Ali Abdullah, 6, 112, 397, 422 Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad, 69, 318n14 SALs See Structural adjustment loans SAPs See Structural adjustment programs Saudi Arabia agricultural development in, 215, 345 education enrollment rates in, 196n9 establishment of, 325 ethnic and religious diversity in, 155–156 export-led strategy in, 53 GDP in, 36, 41 investment rates in, 55 labor force growth in, 142 manufacturing sectors in, 57–58 military development in, 353n7 oil reserves in, 23 oil subsidies in, 64 political development in, 115–118 political freedom in, 86 political protests in, privatization of economy in, 346 revenue volatility in, 349 as RRLP nation, 26 rural development strategies in, 91 social fragmentation in, 330–331 state capacity in, 326–329 state-led economic development in, 255–256 SCAF See Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Schiffbauer, Marc, 297 SCIRI See Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq Secondary education systems, 183, 185–187, 188 (table) enrollment in, by gender, 188 (table) Sen, Amartya, 456 Sen, Kunal, 10 Service economy, in MENA region, 53, 58 Shafik, Ahmed, 464 Sharia law, in Ottoman Empire, 89 Shariati, Ali, 375 Sharon, Ariel, 374 Sheffer, Gabriel, 385 Shehata, Dina, 426 Shi’ites, 155 Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, Singapore, 134 Singerman, Diane, 431 Sipahis, in Ottoman Empire, 90 Al-Sisi, Abdel Fattah, 101, 208, 298, 370, 464 Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), 16–17 Smith, Adam, 456 Social actors in political economic development, 12, 20–23 state control and, 21 Social capital, 403 Social mobility, education and, 193–195 Social non-movements, 430–431 Social services, 160–163 Socialism See Arab socialism; Fabian socialism Socialist Decrees, 236, 246 Sons of the Soil, 212 South Asia Asian Tigers in, 279 literacy rates in, 132 (table) See also specific nations South Sudan, 113 South Yemen, 112 See also Yemen Sovereign wealth funds, 351 (fig.) SPLA See Sudan People’s Liberation Army Springborg, Robert, 14, 286, 382 SSU See Sudanese Socialist Union State capacity, 13–15 defined, 13–14 in political regimes, 78–79 State-led economic development accumulation processes in, 236 for Arab socialism, 240–241 asset distribution in, 235 contradictions of, 258–261 delay strategies for reforms through, 264–270 economic adjustments in, by nation, 49–53 through FDI, 20 foreign exchange as part of, 18–19 GDP growth per capita, 259 (table) globalization of economy as influence on, 19–20 human-capital formation in, 16 industrial development as part of, 18 large expenditures in, 17–18 macroeconomic distortions in, 17 in MENA region, 46–49 oil revenues as option against, 266–267 political economic development influenced by, 11–12, 15–20 political settlements under, 22 population growth as factor in, 138 property right protections and, 23 public asset management and, 262–263 resistance to reform through, 260–264 socialist transformation in, 236 state bourgeoisie as result of, 263–264 structural changes in, 56–58 structural transformation through, 234–236, 264–270 See also specific nations States, 11–15 autonomy in, 13 defined, 13–14 developmental, 14–15 political development in, 14 predatory, 14–15 Stiglitz, Joseph, 279 Strategic rents, 45, 287 Street politics, Structural adjustment loans (SALs), 275 Structural adjustment programs (SAPs) adjustment costs for, 278 austerity costs for, 278 function of, 278 in RPLA nations, 274 in RRLA nations, 274–275 in Turkey, 287–292 Washington Consensus theory and, 273–282 Stunting, 196n5 Sub-Saharan Africa IMRs in, 46–47 literacy rates in, 132 (table) Subsidies See Consumer goods subsidies; Energy subsidies; Oil subsidies Sudan agricultural pricing strategies in, 213 civil war in, 112 under Comprehensive Peace Agreement, 113 Darfur region, food insecurity in, 206–207 economic growth in, 53 family planning programs in, 136–137 food insecurity in, 206–207 IMRs in, 165 as Islamic republic, 113–115 Islamism in, 469–472 Kurds in, 405–406 military rule in, 371 Muslim Brotherhood in, 113 political development in, 112 political freedom in, 86 political protests in, political settlements in, 370–371 religion incorporated into political system in, 112 as RRLA nation, 26 SAF in, 382 soft coup in, 113 state-led economic development in, 18, 235 Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), 113, 207, 471 Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), 382 Sudanese Socialist Union (SSU), 410 Suez War, 241 Sunnis Islamism among, 438 in Lebanon, 155 in Syria, 7–8 Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), 442 Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), 31, 101, 381, 397 Sykes-Picot Agreement, 95–96 Syria Arab Renaissance Party in, 110, 244 Arab uprisings in, 111 Ba’ath Party in, 110, 194 class engineering in, 22 crony capitalism in, 283 economic efficiency in, 247 economic growth in, economic inequality in, 68 after end of Cold War, 110–111 ethno-religious politics in, female labor participation rates in, 133 IMRs in, 130–131 informal labor markets, 151 informal labor markets in, 153 investment rates in, 56 labor force growth in, 142, 247 land cooperative systems in, 211 Mandates in, 94 under military rule, 355 occupation of Lebanon, 247–248 political development in, 110–112 political protests in, 1, public investment collapse in, 63 regime response to protests in, as repressive regime, 14 as RRLA nation, 26 service economy in, 58 state-business relations in, 31 state-led economic development in, 18, 235, 244–248 Sunni population in, 7–8 under Sykes-Picot Agreement, 95 trading strategies in, 244–245 in UAR, 246 youth unemployment in, 145 Tabuk Agricultural Development Company, 212 Ta’if Accord, 108 Taiwan, 134 Tamarod movement, 427–428 Tantawi, Mohamed Hussein, 464 Tanzimat programs, 93, 353n4 Taxation in agricultural development, 213 with ilitizam system, 91 in ISI, 213 in MENA region, 17, 286 negative, 324 Tehran University, 187 Terbil, Fathi, 399 Tertiary education, 183 enrollment in, by gender, 188 (table) See also University systems TFR See Total fertility rate Timar system, in Ottoman Empire, 89 TIMSS See Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study Total fertility rate (TFR), 126, 158n1 Trabelsi, Leila, 430 Trade See International trade Treaty of Lausanne, 97, 237 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), 179–180 Trucial States, 94 TSKGV See Turkish Armed Forces Tunisia Arabic language education in, 192–193 Bourguiba in, 29, 97 constitutional reform in, 103 crony capitalism in, 283, 286, 299–302 economic growth in, 4, 53 economic inequality in, 68 economic privatization in, 200 in EEC, 51, 248 export-led economic strategies in, 19, 49–50 family planning policies in, 136–137 FDI in, 300–301 Four-Year Plan in, 248 Gulen Movement in, 119 ICOR in, 299 Islamism in, 462–463 labor force growth in, 142 land cooperative systems in, 211 land tenure in, 210 military rule in, 371 Al-Nahda Party in, 32, 34n10, 102 National Salvation Front in, 103–104 Neo-Destour Party in, 101, 194, 248, 411 organized labor in, 200, 417 political corruption in, 31 political freedom in, 85–86 political moderation in, 34n10 political parties in, 412 political protests in, 1, 5–6 political settlements in, 101–104 poverty rates in, 67 public investment collapse in, 63 RCD in, 102, 194, 396 as RPLA nation, 26 service economy in, 58 state-business relations in, 31 state-led economic development in, 235, 248–249, 301 strategic rents in, 287 tax exemptions in, 286 Three-Year Plan in, 248 unemployment in, 143 vocational training in, 190 welfare state institutions in, 5–6 youth bulge in, 125 See also Arab uprisings Tunisian Association of Democratic Women (ATFD), 422 al-Turabi, Hassan, 113, 207, 470 Turkey AKP in, 30, 51, 119, 195, 290 application to EU, 51 chain of happiness in, 289 class engineering in, 22 debt boom years in, 289–290 duty losses in, 289 economic crises in, 266 economic growth in, 18–19, 53 ethno-religious diversity in, 154 in EU, 118 export-led economic strategies in, 19 family planning policies in, 136–137 female labor participation rates in, 133 Five-Year Plans in, 237–238, 266 foreign exchange in, 18–19 GDP in, 36 government effectiveness in, 81 IMRs in, 130–131 industrialization in, 237 inequality of opportunity in, 70 ISI strategies in, 47, 237–238 Islamism in, 467–468 Justice Party in, 266 Kemalist Revolution in, 238 literacy rates in, 174 manufacturing sectors in, 57 military rule in, 372–373 Motherland Party in, 118, 269 ÖYAK in, 380–381 political development in, 118–121 political moderation in, 34n10 political protests in, 401 public investment in, 239 reform programs in, 268–269 regional export distribution in, 291 (fig.) RPP in, 97, 194, 237, 266 SAPs in, 287–292 state-led economic development in, 18, 235–239 under Treaty of Lausanne, 97, 237 TSKGV in, 379 Ulysses and the Sirens reform strategy in, 292 unemployment in, 144 Welfare Party in, 118–119, 195, 290 See also Atatürk, Mustafa Kemal Turkish Armed Forces (TSKGV), 379 Turkishization, 192 2008 financial crisis, 281 2008 global food crisis, 204–208 2008 recession, UAE See United Arab Emirates UAR See United Arab Republic UCDP See Uppsala Conflict Data Program UGTA See General Confederation of Algerian Workers UGTT See General Confederation of Tunisian Workers Ulema (Islam legal experts), 92 Ulysses and the Sirens reform strategy, 292 UNDP See United Nations Development Program Unemployment in GCC nations, 145 labor force participation and, 143–146 in MENA region, 143–146, 144 (table), 310–311 in RPLA nations, 145 rural-to-urban migration as influence on, 144 for women, in MENA region, 144 (table), 145 for youth, 145 UNICEF See United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund United Arab Emirates (UAE), 116 agricultural development in, 215 British colonial rule in, 94 ethnic and religious diversity in, 155–156 female labor participation rates in, 133 formation of, 325 labor force growth in, 142 literacy rates in, 174–175 oil subsidies in, 64 privatization of economy in, 346 service economy in, development of, 53 social fragmentation in, 330 state-led economic development in, 255–256 wasta systems in, 325 United Arab Republic (UAR), 246 United Nations Development Program (UNDP), 63 United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF), 449 United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA), 501 United States (US) Coalition Provision Authority of, in Iraq, 270n1 economic aid to Israel, 45 economic sanctions against Iran, 315 invasion of Iraq, 111, 167 military aid from, by global region, 364 (fig.) military aid to MENA, 365 (fig.) population distribution in, by age and sex, 139 (fig.) war on terrorism, 362 years remaining for oil production in, 343 (fig.) University of Assiut, 189 University systems, 187–190 class bias in, 187–188 UNRWA See United Nations Relief Works Agency Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), 387n1 Urban labor markets, 148–150 Urban migration economic growth and, 16 education systems influenced by, 181–182 to GCC nations, 44 unemployment influenced by, 144 See also Labor migration, in GCC nations Urdal, Henrik, 154 Vietnam, service economy in, 58 Violence during Arab uprisings, Islamist support for, 439 among youth populations, 154 Virtual water, 200 Vocational training, 190–191 Wafd Party, 184, 194, 413 Wage bills, in MENA region, 150 (table) Al Wahda Dam, 224 Wahhabism, 441 Wallis, John Joseph, 322 Walstedt, Bertil, 264 War on terrorism, 362 Wars economic consequences of, 366–369 in MENA region, 363, 365–366 political consequences of, 366–369 types of, by global region, 363 (table) See also Civil wars; specific wars Washington Consensus theory Asian Tigers and, 279 criticism of, 279–282 crony capitalism and, 30, 298 development of, 276–277 engagement strategies in, 277–278 export-led strategies and, 50 MENA region and, 273–282 Morocco and, 302 SALs and, 275 SAPs and, 273–282 Turkey and, 287–292 Wasta systems, 325 Water conservation, 199 Water poverty index, 218 Water security, 216–228 during droughts, 205–206 water quantity, 218–222 Water use, in MENA region in agricultural development, 222–223, 225 cultivated land and, 204 (fig.) through dams, 224, 227–229 economic value of, 219 financial considerations for, 225–226 international hydropolitics for, 226–228 managerial constraints for, 225–226 under Nile Agreement, 227 in NSAS, 226 under Oslo Accords, 227 overpumping of groundwater, 219–220 population risks and, 199 privatization of, 225–226 by sector, 200 (fig.) with virtual water, 200 Waterbury, John, 174, 264 WBES See World Bank Enterprise Survey Weber, Max, 13, 20 Weingast, Barry, 322 Weizman, Ezer, 374 Welfare Party, 118–119, 195, 290 Welfare spending, in RRLA nations, 63 Welfare state institutions economic rollback of, 5–6 in Israel, 257 in Tunisia, 5–6 WHO See World Health Organization Williamson, John, 276–277 See also Washington Consensus theory Wittfogel, Karl August, 324 Women CEDAW and, 466 employment for, 132–133 fertility and, socioeconomic status as factor for, 131, 132–133 labor force participation for, 133, 142, 146, 147 (table) literacy rates for, 175–176 opportunity costs of fertility for, 131 in parliament, by global region, 420 (fig.) as political leaders, public acceptance of, 421 (fig.) in secondary education, enrollment rates, 188 (table) sexual harassment of, 424 in social movements, 419–424 in tertiary education, enrollment rates, 188 (table) unemployment rates for, in MENA region, 144 (table), 145 See also Employment, for females; Girls Women’s rights, 423–424 World Bank, 20, 67 World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES), 306 World Health Organization (WHO), 449 World Trade Organization (WTO), 19, 215–216, 512n5 Yamani, Ahmed Zaki, 256 YAR See Yemen Arab Republic Yassine, Abdessalam, 444, 450 Yemen crony capitalism in, 283 economic growth in, economic inequality in, 68 family planning programs in, 136–137 female labor participation rates in, 133 groundwater overuse in, 220–221 IMRs in, 165 Joint Meeting Parties in, 397 land cooperative systems in, 211 literacy rates in, 175 oil subsidies in, 64 political corruption in, 31 political development in, 112 political freedom in, 86 political parties in, 414 political protests in, 1, poverty rates in, 67 as RRLA nation, 26 teacher salaries in, 180 unemployment in, 143 Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) agricultural development in, 214–215 state-led economic development in, 18 Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP), 414 Yom, Sean, 76 Yom Kippur War, 257–258 Young Egypt Party, 194 Yousef, Tarek, 460 Youssoufi, Abderrahmane, 268 Youth bulge Arab uprisings as result of, 125–126 in Tunisia, 125 Youth for Change, 426 Youth movements, 425–429 Youth populations generational tensions with, 153–154 Islamism and, 443 politics of, 153–156, 158 violence among, 154 Youth unemployment rates, in Arab world, 4, 145 YSP See Yemeni Socialist Party Zakat (giving alms), 457–458 Zéroual, Liamine, 153 Zogby International, al Zumour, Tareq, 454 ... 2015 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AAAID AMIO ANM Arab Authority for Agricultural Investment and Development Arab Military Industrialization Organization Arab National Movement ASU Arab Socialist... shared values, shared blood—is at the heart of debates in the social sciences We believe that each of the major variables is vital for an understanding of the political economy of the Middle East, ... the Shi a and the Kurds, whose networks posed a threat to his rule As a result, the Shi a and the Kurds felt marginalized in Saddam’s Iraq, and their political leaders have taken advantage of his