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Cocktail investing distilling everyday noise into clear investment signals for better returns

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  • Cover

  • Title Page

  • Copyright

  • Contents

  • Preface

  • Acknowledgments

  • Chapter 1 Money

    • Savings and Debt

    • State of Savings in the United States

    • The Rules Have Changed

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 2 Getting Started

    • First Step: Saving

    • Second Step: Investing

      • Investing Methods

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 3 The Economy versus the Markets

    • Economic Ideology

    • Schools of Economic Thought

    • Comparing Economic Theories

    • The Economy versus the Market

      • What Does It All Mean?

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 4 Read the Economy Like a Pro

    • Don't Trust the "Experts"

    • Vector and Velocity

    • Breaking It Down

      • Households

      • Business

      • Government

    • Going Global

    • Data Corroboration

      • Application Examples

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 5 The Impact of Politics and Regulation on Investing

    • Monetary Policy

      • Fractional Reserve Banking

    • Fiscal Policy

      • Fiscal Policy Example: Wind Energy

    • Regulatory Policy

      • Regulatory Example: Banking

      • Regulatory Example: Music Industry

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 6 Enabling and Disruptive Technologies

    • The Evolution into Mobile

    • Data Proliferation

    • The App Revolution

    • Rules of Thumb

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 7 Profiting from Pain

    • Newspapers

    • Cybersecurity

    • Water

    • Changing Demographics

      • Aging of the Population

      • Plumper Population

    • Changing Consumer Preferences

      • Fitter Food

      • Millennial Mistrust

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 8 Cocktail Thematic Investing

    • Let's Go Online Shopping

    • Shifting Perspectives

    • Multiple Cocktail Thematics

    • Signposts

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 9 Designing Your Portfolio

    • Number of Securities

    • Risk Tolerance

    • Stocks

      • P/E Ratios

      • Share Repurchases

    • Real Estate Investment Trusts

    • Master Limited Partnership (MLP)

    • Funds

      • Exchange-Traded Funds versus Mutual Funds

      • Types of ETFs

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 10 Choosing Your Investments

    • 12 Questions You Need to Answer When Looking to Buy a Stock

      • 1. What Does the Company Do?

      • 2. What Are Its Key Products or Services?

      • 3. Which Business Unit or Units Make Most of the Profits?

      • 4. Who Are the Customers, and How Are They/Will They Be Changing?

      • 5. Who Are the Company's Suppliers, and What Are Its Key Inputs?

      • 6. Who Are the Key Competitors, and How Are They Impacting the Market?

      • 7. Who Is Running the Company, and What Do They Think?

      • 8. What Is Driving Growth at the Company?

      • 9. What Is Driving the Company's Profit, and, If It's Not Improving, Why Is That?

      • 10. Is the Company Financially Healthy?

      • 11. What's the Catalyst for Growth or Improved Profitability?

      • 12. Is Today's Price Right?

    • Case Study: Starbucks Corp.

      • Upside Potential versus Downside Risk

      • Price-to-earnings (P/E) and Dividend Yield Ratio Range

    • Individual Stocks versus Funds

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

  • Chapter 11 Building the Portfolio

    • Monitoring the Trend

    • Monitoring the Company

      • Case Study: Starbucks Corp.

    • Monitoring the Stock Price

      • Case Study: DSW Inc.

    • Sell or Buy More?

    • Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

    • Cocktail Investing Final Thoughts

  • Appendix: Definitions, Metrics, and Resources

    • Chapter 2

      • Newsletter Services

      • Online Brokerage Services

      • Questions for a Potential Investment Advisor or Broker

    • Chapter 9

      • A Brief Tour of Bonds

      • REITS

      • Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs)

    • Economic Indicators and Data Sources

  • About the Authors

  • Index

  • EULA

Nội dung

www.ebook3000.com www.ebook3000.com Cocktail Investing www.ebook3000.com www.ebook3000.com Cocktail Investing Distilling Everyday Noise into Clear Investment Signals for Better Returns Christopher J Versace Lenore Elle Hawkins www.ebook3000.com Copyright © 2016 by Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins All rights reserved Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750–8400, fax (978) 646–8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748–6011, fax (201) 748–6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation You should consult with a professional where appropriate Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762–2974, outside the United States at (317) 572–3993 or fax (317) 572–4002 Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available: ISBN 9781119003946 (Hardcover) ISBN 9781119004103 (ePDF) ISBN 9781119004059 (ePub) Cover Design: Michael J Freeland Cover Images: glass © iStock.com/cc-stock; olive © iStock.com/AndrewJohnson Printed in the United States of America 10 www.ebook3000.com I’d like to dedicate this book to my family and friends that have been so helpful and supportive on my journey, as well as to all the fledgling investors that are just getting started on their investing path – Chris To Marco, Cat, Emmy, Kimberly, Bill, Sara, Tom, Sheila, Jordan, Sharron, Karen, Jaime, and Mom for helping me laugh, maintaining my sanity, and pouring the occasional vino when it was needed most Not only you all inspire me to aim higher every day, but your love makes the joys of life all the sweeter and the struggles easier to bear – Lenore www.ebook3000.com www.ebook3000.com Contents Preface Acknowledgments ix xv Chapter 1: Money Chapter 2: Getting Started 19 Chapter 3: The Economy versus the Markets 35 Chapter 4: Read the Economy Like a Pro 53 Chapter 5: The Impact of Politics and Regulation on Investing 97 Chapter 6: Enabling and Disruptive Technologies 119 Chapter 7: Profiting from Pain 143 Chapter 8: Cocktail Thematic Investing 179 Chapter 9: Designing Your Portfolio 197 vii www.ebook3000.com viii CONTENTS Chapter 10: Choosing Your Investments 223 Chapter 11: Building the Portfolio 267 Appendix: Definitions, Metrics, and Resources About the Authors Index 301 323 327 www.ebook3000.com 336 Globalization, 89–90 application examples, 92–93 data corroboration, 90–93 Golden Years, 11 saving/investing, 16 Gold price, tracking, 218 Google I/O, 139 Government, 81–89 bonds, holding, 102–103 corporate funding, application example, 87–88 data, monitoring, 298 debt, application example, 88–89 economy participant, 61 housing industry, application example, 82–86 information, 316 institutions, impact, 148 metrics, 83t primary policy levers, 99f spending, changes, 88–89 Government-sponsored entity (GSE), 86 GPS navigation, usage, 192 Graham, Benjamin, 223 Great Depression, 46, 58 Greater good, production, 48 Great Recession, 8–9, 171, 268 crisis, impact, 67, 85 job decline, 280 shock, 76 Greenlight Capital, 229 Greenspan, Alan, 39, 56, 100, 106 Greenspan put, 106 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) INDEX Bureau of Economic Analysis data, 79 country ranking, 90t global GDP, 89 growth, 57, 58 percent of total contribution, 79t Gross household income, 8–9 Grove, Andy, 145, 268 Growth factors, 237–241 potential, 248 GSCI Cocoa Index, percentage change, 279f Guilty Pleasure, 189, 190, 249, 281 Guilty pleasures, 189–190 H HACK See Exchange-traded funds Hacking, 148 Hayek, Friedrich, 48 Healthcare funding, spending (increase), obesity (impact), 166 Henry, Patrick, 48 Hershey Company, shares (improvement), 238 High-income earner, tax code consideration, 26 High-yield bonds, 306 Historical valuations, 286 Holder, Eric, 149 Home ownership rates, 84f Home sales (new/existing), 66f Index Households, 62–73 application example, financial health (metrics), 63t credit card debt level, 70 economy participants, 61 financial health, assessment, 64 household debt to income ratio, median income, 64f real-life example, 65–73 retirement savings levels, GAO estimates, 163 spending, proportion, 72 tax collection, 82 total liabilities to disposable income ratio, 7f Housing data sources, 319 down payments, impact, 84 first-time buyer purchases, decline, 69 home prices, decline, 65 industry, application example, 82–86 prices, increase, 83–84 I IBB See Exchange-traded funds Identity theft, 147 Incentives (alteration), regulations (impact), 87 Inception date, examination, 259 Income generation, long-term returns (contrast), 202 long-term growth, contrast, 199 337 “Income and Poverty in the United States” (Census Bureau report), 70 Individual bonds, purchase difficulty, 304 Individual retirement accounts (IRAs), 304–305 growth, 213 Individual stocks, funds (contrast), 258–263 Industrial production (IP), 57 Industry data sources, 319 tracking, 273 Inflation, 56, 90–91 data sources, 320 impact, 9, 310 Information sources, 321 Infrastructure water spending needs, spending gaps (contrast), 158f Inhibitors, 240–241 examples, 241 Institute for Supply Management (ISM) employment data, 92 Purchasing Managers Index publication, 77 reports, 69 In-store sales, decline, 182 Interest coverage ratio, 236 Interest payment, government taxation, 88 Interest rates effective interest rate, 308 plotting, 312 post-financial crisis, 234 338 Interest rates (continued) reduction, 207 term, usage, 307 International Business Machines (IBM) data, 93 Internet of Things (IoT), 133, 137, 152–153 Inventory to sales ratio, 75 Inverse ETF, impact, 219 Inverted yield curve, 314 Investable signals, clarity, 179–180 Investment broker, questions, 303 capital, availability, 36 growth, example, 26f guarantees, absence, 253–254 guidelines, 34 heart, 285 journal, keeping, 316–317 malinvestment, 47, 51 methods, 24–33 minimum, 260 movement, monitoring, 298 muscles, 268 noise, 180f politics/regulation, impact, 48, 97 restrictions/preferences, 32 selection, 223 step, 23–33 thematic investing, 179 Investment advisor, 24–25 information, usage, 32–33 questions, 303 services, 32, 33 usage, 31 INDEX iPhone, introduction, 122–123, 237–238 iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), 217, 304 iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB), 215 ISM Purchasing Managers Index, examples, 78f J J.B Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) revenue, 81 Jefferson, Thomas, 48 Jet fuel spot prices (U.S.), 240f Jobs creation directional trends, 62–63 quality, 63 data sources, 318 decline, 280 K Keynesianism, 39, 42, 46 economic policy, failure, 48–49 Keynes, John Maynard, 37, 46, 72 Kind, Ron, 166 Kingdom-type structure, 40 Knopf, Alfred A., 53 KRAVE, Hershey Company purchase, 170 L Labor pool, quantity/quality, 36 Labor productivity (U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics), 71f Index Laffer, Arthur, 49 League of Conservation Voters (LCV), 110 Lee Enterprises, stock price (percent change), 146f Leverage, 237 deleveraging process, 41 Levitt, Theodore, 119 Lewis, Michael, 98 Lifestyle digital shopping lifestyle, adoption, 182 spending shift, 162–163 Lives lengthening, 191–192 length, expectancy, 162 Living longer lives, 10, 11, 14, 16, 160, 163, 191 Longevity, 10–11 increase, 11 Stanford Center on Longevity (SCL) report, 9–10 Long-term growth, income (contrast), 199 Long-term loans, 313 Long-term rates, 312 Long-term returns, income generation (contrast), 202 Low-income borrowers, mortgage targets, 85 Luxuries, affordability, 186–187 Lynch, Peter, 223 M Madison, James, 48 Magazines, data sources, 320–321 339 Malinvestment, 47 Malthus, Thomas Robert, 43 Malvertising, 150 Manufacturing capacity utilization (Federal Reserve), 77f data sources, 319 Market dynamics, understanding, 228 Market LOHAS MamboTrack, 168 Markets distortion, subsidies (impact), 86–87 economy, contrast, 35, 50–52 Markit Economics reports, 69, 77 Marx, Groucho, 97 Massive open online courses (MOOCs), popularity, 188 Master limited partnerships (MLPs), 202, 212–213, 315 downside, 213 McAdam, Lowell, 272 McClatchy, stock price (percent change), 146f Median household income (U.S.), 64f Median sales price (new houses), 64f Medical debts, impact, 20 Middle class, rise, 185–186 Milk prices, 277–278 Millennials apartment demand, 275 cash, long-term investment, 11 mistrust levels, 171–173 340 Millennials (continued) stock market avoidance, 11–121, 172 Mill, John Stuart, 43 Mississippi Mania, 51 Mobile data evolution, 121–129 proliferation, impact, 131 Mobile evolution, impact, 124 Mobile networks, expansion, 124 Mobile payments, enabling, 191 Mobile phones, impact, 121–123 Mobility, impact, 126 Monetarism, 39, 42, 46–47 monetarist goal, 47 Monetary policy, 99, 100–107 Monetary Policy conference (Cato Institute), 112 Money amount, 101 borrowing cost, interest rates (impact), 310 Money Control Act (MCA), 103 Money supply alteration, 100–101 increase, 104 Morningstar services, 230 Mortgage-backed securities (MBS), 86 Mortgages adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), 314 interest payments, deductibility (changes), 82 low-income borrowers, targets, 85 INDEX non-FHA mortgages, downpayment requirements, 85 REIT, investment, 211–212 vector/velocity, 65 Movie, photograph (contrast), 183 MSN Money calculator (usage), 21 Multifunctional kitchen space, 198 Multiplier effect, 103 Munger, Charlie, 301 Murkowski, Lisa, 166 Music industry, regulatory example, 113–116 Mutual funds, 13, 24, 27–29, 195, 200, 202, 209, 213–220, 258–263, 269, 302, 304, 306 exchange-traded funds (ETFs), contrast, 215–217, 258 guidance, 24 treatment, tax code change (impact), 269 N National Association of Home Builders data, 65, 67 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data, 58 recession data, 98 National Center for Education Statistics, U.S student ranking, 188 Index National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) research, 172 National Retail Federation (NRF) report, 92–93 Natural product sales, increase, 168 Natural/renewable materials, usage, 198 Natural resources, abundance/utilization, 36 Nazi Germany, fascism (example), 45 Near-field communication (NFC), 190, 191 Neoclassical economics, 42 individual, focus, 44–49 Nest, Google purchase, 130 Net asset value (NAV), 215 Net cash per share, 234 New demand, new solutions, 187, 188, 193, 194 Net equity inflows (U.S.), 209f New/existing home sales, 66f Newsletter services, 302 Newspapers, 146–147, 316 data sources, 320–321 pain point, 146 Nielsen Soundscan, 114 third-party research, 114 Nominal yield, 307 Non-FHA mortgages, downpayment requirements, 85 Nonprofit organizations, total liabilities to disposable income ratio, 7f 341 NSS Labs, Inc (founding), 154 O Obama, Barack, 149–150, 156 Obesity costs, 166 disease, AMA recognition, 166–167 U.S adult obesity, state ranking, 165f Oil prices, decline, 239 Online brokerage services, 303 Online brokers, usage, 28–29 Online retailers, presence, 182 Online shopping, 180–183 perspectives, shift, 183–185 shift, 239 spending percentage, 92–93 Open space design, 198 Operating margin, calculation, 231 Operating profit, 236 calculation, 231 Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), 6, 196 O’Rourke, P.J., 50, 97 Outside assets, ownership, 32 Outside income, impact, 31 Overheated economy, 57 P Pain points, 14, 144–145 cybercrime, 151 determination, 158–159 newspapers, 146 342 Pain, profit, 143 Panetta, Leon, 149 Par, term (usage), 305 Partially self-directed investment, 34 Partnership to Fight Chronic Disease (PFCD) report, 165–166 Party of European Socialists, Declaration of Principles, 45 PEG ratio, 252–253 Performance Rights Organizations (PROs), 115 Photograph, movie (contrast), 183 Planning and Progress Study (Northwestern Mutual), 163 Podification, 269 Political world, changes (awareness), 269 Politics data sources, 320 impact, 97 power, 132 Pompeo, Mike, 109–110 Population aging, 160–164 body size, increase, 164–167 Porter, Michael, 257 target portfolio, maintenance, 293 Portfolio blueprint, creation, 199 construction, 267 design, 197–198 GSCI Cocoa Index, percentage change, 279f INDEX implementation/monitoring, identification, 27–28 selections, 224 theory, 30 trend, monitoring, 271–273 U.S producer price index, raw milk (percentage change), 277f U.S producer price index, wheat (percentage change), 278f Present value, calculation, 308–309 Pretax accounts, investment growth example, 26f high-income tax rate example, 27f Prevailing narrative, 38, 56 identification, 38 Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, 204–206 basis, 211 decline, 254 examination, 256 Starbucks Corp., 244–258 Price-to-sales, examination, 256 Privacy, impact, 128 Probabilities, 52 usage, 253–254 Production, investment, 36 Production/nonsupervisory employees (U.S.), real average hourly earnings, 280f Production Tax Credit (PTC), 109–110 Index Productivity data, 70–71 gains, 47 Products financial advisor, usage, 214f inelastic nature, 190 value, factors, 43 Profitability, improvement, 232 factors, 237–241 Profits, firms maximization, 43, 44 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), 188 Property ownership, attitudes, 172 Psychographics, 169, 187 Publications, data sources, 320–321 Public good, maximization, 40 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) publication, 77 Purchasing power, loss, 103–104 Q Qualcomm (QCOM), impact, 227 Quantitative easing (QE), 42, 104, 106, 208 termination, 107 Quarterly homeownership rates (U.S.), 67f Quarterly reports, usage, 203, 212, 224, 229 Quarterly share repurchases, 207f Quasigovernment bonds, holding, 102–103 343 R Rail companies, monitoring, 273–274 Rail traffic, 81 Ransomware, 152 Rational preferences, 43, 44 Raw milk, U.S producer price index (percentage change), 277f Reaction inhibitor, 240–241 Reagan, Ronald, 49 Real Deal study (Aon PLC), 164 Real estate investment trusts (REITs), 202, 211–212, 315 Real Estate Rage, 51 Recession, 57 business inventory to sales ratio (Federal Reserve), relationship, 76f inventory to sales ratio, 75 Registered investment advisory (RIA), 24, 217 Regulation assumption, 111 data sources, 320 impact, 87, 97 Taxes, Benefits, Goods & Services, Employment 62f term, usage, 99–100 Regulatory examples banking, 112–113 music industry, 113–116 Regulatory policy, 111–116 Reid, Harry, 110 Research, sources, 321 344 Resources, scarcity, 187 Restaurant Trends Survey (National Restaurant Association), 169 Retail e-commerce sales, U.S quarterly estimation, 181f Retirement money, loss (Employment Benefit Research Institute estimation), 164 Retirement Preparedness Measure (Fidelity Investments), 164 Retirement Readiness Ratings (Employment Benefit Research Institute), 164 Retirement savings, 20, 33 levels, GAO estimates, 163 timeline, 28 Revenue, headwind, 284 Ricardo, David, 43 Rise of the new middle class, 185, 186, 187 Risk tolerance, 199, 200–202 types, time horizon (impact), 201 upside potential, downside risk (contrast), 244 Risk-averse investors, 294–295 Roaring 1920s, 51 Rogers, Will, 97 Rule 10b5-1, 230 Russell 2000, small-cap fund (comparison), 262 INDEX S Safety and security, 189, 194 Samit, Jay, 143 Sanford C Bernstein & Co report, 109 Savings, 5–7 rules, change, 12–15 status, 7–12 step, 20–23 types, 20, 33–34 Scare resources, 187 Scottrade, 28–29 Sector indexes, 219–220 Sector performance per business cycle phase, 61f Securities number, 199–200 Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), 105 types, 202 Seeking Alpha (websites), 298 Self-directed investment, 34 Self-employment, 25 Server, dumb terminals (usage), 121 Shareholders, returns (generation), 209–210 Shares repurchases, 206–211 quarterly share repurchases, 207f trading, valuation multiples, 296 Shiller P/E ratio, 205 Shiller, Robert, 205 Shorter-term loans, 312 Short ETF, impact, 219 Index Signposts, 192–195 Silver, Nate, 179, 267 Skyworks Solution, 190 Apple, impact, 240 radio frequency (RF) semiconductors, 240 stock price, 125f Slashing the outlook, 289 Small-cap fund, Russell 2000 index (comparison), 262 Smart bulbs, 133 Smart/connected home technologies, usage, 198 Smartphones, impact, 122–123, 190–191 Smith, Adam, 43 SNL Financial, 113 Snow, John, 39, 56 Sobieski, Emmy, 124, 254 interview, 255–258 Socialism, 39, 42 free market beliefs, 45 Social Security, existence, Societies connections, 185 progression, 40 Soft science, 43 South Sea Shindig, 51 Special purpose saving, 20, 34 Spending shift, 162–163 Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P500), 201f percentage change, 99f returns, absence, 268 10K, 276–277 trailing total returns, 13f 345 Standard & Poor’s index, excess reserves (bank holdings), 107f, 108f Stanford Center on Longevity (SCL) report, 9–10 Starbucks Corp analyst estimates, 284f comparative valuations, 250f consolidated income statement, 282f data, compilation, 245 dividend yield ratio range, 244–258 earnings per share (EPS), 245 change, 247 peer group, comparison, 251 share buyback, impact, 247f PEG ratio, 252–253 premium investors level, trends, 252 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, 244–258 usage, 252 shares, decline, 244 stocks case study, 243–258, 275–286 pullback, 253–254 summary results, 283f upside potential, downside risk (contrast), 244 valuation, 247 analysis, 246f Steinhafel, Gregg, 148 Stock exchange, gambling, 346 Stock market, Millennial avoidance, 11–12, 172 Stocks, 202–211 bumper price points, impact, 296 business units, profit ranking, 225–227 buyback, 206 yield, 207f certificates, 285 company financial health, 233–237 function, identification, 224–225 growth, factors, 230–231 management team, 229–230 products/services, identification, 225 profit, factors, 231–233 suppliers/inputs, identification, 228 theme, discovery, 296 competitors, impact (identification), 228–229 customers, identification/change, 227 expectations, revision, 296 growth, factors, 237–241 guidance, 24 guilty pleasure group, 189–190 inception date, examination, 259 minimum trading volume, 203 options, 287–288 P/E ratios, 204–206 INDEX price centers, monitoring, 286 correctness, 241–243 decline, 210 monitoring, 286–291 percent change, example, 146f profitability, improvement, 237–241 purchase, 13 questions, 224–243 quarterly share repurchases, 207f sale/purchase, decision, 291–298 shares premium, trading, 205 price, 270 repurchases, 206–211 trading, valuation multiples, 296 Starbucks Corp (case study), 243–258 upside-to-downside trade-off, shift, 296 valuation metrics, existence, 296 Stop-loss orders/stop-limit orders, 295 Streaming video, adoption (growth), 239 Structural changes, 14 Student loan debt, repayment (CFPB data), Subsidies, impact, 86–87 Sugarman, Joseph, 143 Supply and demand curves, 43f Index Supply-side disruptions, 187 Supply-side economics, 42, 50 development, 48–49 Survey of Consumer Finance (Federal Reserve), 286 T Taleb, Nassim, 51 Tankless water heaters, usage, 198 Target portfolio weighting, 293 TARP bailouts, 41 Taxable accounts, investment growth example, 26f high income tax rate example, 27f Taxation (taxes) basis, 32 code, change, 269 collection, 82 considerations, 199 double-taxation, 210 discussion, 212 Tax-deferred account, feature, 304–305 TD Ameritrade, 28–29 Technology data sources, 320 meltdown (2001), 189–190 solutions, 188 Thematic investing, 179 demands/solutions, 187–188 perspectives, 185–192 Thematic 180, 182–187, 189–192, 194–195, 198–199, 347 211, 223, 263, 270–273, 290, 298–299, 324–325 monitoring, 271–273 Thoreau, Henry David, Thorpe, Ken, 165–166 Time horizon, 31 impact, 201 Total debt to capital ratio, 233–234 Total liabilities to disposable income ratio, 7f Total receivables, 236–237 Tracking error occurrence, 219 term, usage, 218 Trade associations, data (usage), 91 Trade, data sources, 319–320 Trailing P/E (TTM), 204 Treasuries, interest rates (impact), 105 Treasury bills, 105 Treasury bonds, 105 Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), 105 Treasury notes, 105 “Treat and Reduce Obesity Act, The,” 166–167 Trend monitoring, 271–273 term, usage, 169 Trimming the position, 287 Trucks tonnage, 81 trends, 193 Twain, Mark, 19 12b-1 fees, 260 348 U Uber, impact, 131–132 Underemployment, problem, 70 Unemployment rate Federal Reserve data, 68f increase, 67 United States adult obesity, state ranking, 165f adult population, obesity, WHO estimate, 165 Drought Monitor, 158 drought monitor, 159f economic contraction, degree, 60t jet fuel spot prices, 240f median household income, 64f net equity flows, Goldman Sachs forecast, 209f net equity inflows, 209f new houses, median sales price, 64f prevailing narrative, 56 producer price index raw milk, percentage change, 277f wheat, percentage change, 278f production/nonsupervisiory employees, real average hourly earnings, 280f quarterly homeownership rates, 67f retail e-commerce sales, quarterly estimation, 181f INDEX savings, status, 7–12 students, National Center for Education Statistics ranking, 188 “United States Organic Food Market Forecast & Opportunities” (2018), 168 Unrelated business taxable income (UBTI), 213 Upside potential, downside risk (contrast), 244 Upside-to-downside trade-off, shift, 296 User experience (UX), 134 U.S Treasuries, yield curve, 105f Utility, individual maximization, 43, 44 V Valuation analysis (Starbucks Corp.), 246f Valuation metrics, existence, 296 Valuation tools Dividend yield, 242, 244–258 P/E ratio, 204–206, 210–211, 242, 244–247, 250–253, 256, 283, 287–291, 296 Enterprise Value to EBITDA, 242 Enterprise Value to revenue, 242 Vectors, impact, 57–61 Velocity change, rate, 57 impact, 57–61 von Mises, Ludwig, 48 Index W Wall Street analyst expectations, 281 expectations, 286 Water, 155–159 American Water Works Association, pipe replacement value calculation, 157 community water systems, investment, 156 drinking water, ASCE report card, 156 infrastructure spending needs, spending gaps (contrast), 158f U.S Drought Monitor, 158 Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 43 Weintraub, E Roy, 43 349 Wheat, U.S producer price index (percentage change), 278f Whole Foods Markets, 168 Wilde, Oscar, Wind energy, fiscal policy example, 109–111 World Wide Development Conference, 139 Y Yield curve, 105–106, 313 inverted yield curve, 314 Yield curve (bonds), 312–314 example, 312f inverted yield curve, 314f Yield increase, 309–310 Z Zero coupon bonds, 307 WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT Go to www.wiley.com/go/eula to access Wiley’s ebook EULA ...www.ebook3000.com Cocktail Investing www.ebook3000.com www.ebook3000.com Cocktail Investing Distilling Everyday Noise into Clear Investment Signals for Better Returns Christopher J Versace... you have, the more clear the investing picture will be and the better off you are going to be The heart of Cocktail Investing recognizes the intersection of several powerful forces—economics,... rung up, money is required both for the necessities and for having options: the “need to haves” and “want to haves.” Without it, you may find yourself forced into a situation you would desperately

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