i ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW® ii iii ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW® JERRY KAPLAN iv Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries “What Everyone Needs to Know” is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America © Oxford University Press 2016 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Kaplan, Jerry, author Title: Artificial intelligence / Jerry Kaplan Description: Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016 | Series: What everyone needs to know | Includes ibliographical references and index Identifiers: LCCN 2016001628| ISBN 9780190602390 (pbk : alk paper)| ISBN 9780190602383 (hardcover : alk paper) Subjects: LCSH: Artificial intelligence—Social aspects—Popular works | Artificial intelligence—Moral and ethical aspects—Popular works Classification: LCC Q335 K36 2016 | DDC 006.3—dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2016001628 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Paperback printed by R.R Donnelley, United States of America Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America v For my mother, Mickey Kaplan Hang in there, your eldercare robot is on the way! vi vii CONTENTS PREFACE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Defining Artificial Intelligence XI XV What is artificial intelligence? Is AI a real science? Can a computer ever really be smarter than a human being? The Intellectual History of Artificial Intelligence 13 Where did the term artificial intelligence come from? 13 What were the Dartmouth conference participants hoping to accomplish? 15 How did early AI researchers approach the problem? 17 What is the “physical symbol system hypothesis”? 20 What is (or was) expert systems? 22 What is planning? 25 What is machine learning? 27 What are artificial neural networks? 28 How did machine learning arise? 32 Which approach is better, symbolic reasoning or machine learning? 36 What are some of the most important historical milestones in AI? 39 viii viii Contents Frontiers of Artificial Intelligence 49 What are the main areas of research and development in AI? 49 What is robotics? 49 What is computer vision? 54 What is speech recognition? 57 What is natural language processing? 60 Philosophy of Artificial Intelligence 67 What is the philosophy of AI? 67 What is “strong” versus “weak” AI? 68 Can a computer “think”? 69 Can a computer have free will? 74 Can a computer be conscious? 81 Can a computer “feel”? 82 Artificial Intelligence and the Law 89 How will AI affect the law? 89 How will AI change the practice of law? 89 How is AI used to help lawyers? 94 What is computational law? 95 Can a computer program enter into agreements and contracts? 98 Should an intelligent agent be limited in what it is permitted to do? 98 Should people bear full responsibility for their intelligent agents? 101 Should an AI system be permitted to own property? 103 Can an AI system commit a crime? 105 Can’t we just program computers to obey the law? 107 How can an AI system be held accountable for criminal acts? 107 ix Contents ix The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Human Labor 113 Are robots going to take away our jobs? 113 What new tasks will AI systems automate? 116 Which jobs are most and least at risk? 118 How will AI affect blue-collar workers? 119 How will AI affect white-collar professions? 122 The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Social Equity 126 Who’s going to benefit from this technological revolution? 126 Are the disruptive effects inevitable? 127 What’s wrong with a labor-based economy? 127 Don’t we need a thriving middle class to drive demand? 130 Are there alternatives to a labor-based society? 132 How can we distribute future assets more equitably? 132 How can we support the unemployed without government handouts? 134 Why should people work if they could live comfortably without doing so? 136 Possible Future Impacts of Artificial Intelligence 138 Is progress in AI accelerating? 138 What is the “singularity”? 138 When might the singularity occur? 141 Is runaway superintelligence a legitimate concern? 144 Will artificially intelligent systems ever get loose and go wild? 146 How can we minimize the future risks? 148 What are the benefits and risks of making computers and robots that act like people? 150 How are our children likely to regard AI systems? 152 Will I ever be able to upload myself into a computer? 153 INDEX 157 ... i ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW ii iii ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW JERRY KAPLAN iv Oxford University Press... DEFINING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE What is artificial intelligence? That’s an easy question to ask and a hard one to answer—for two reasons First, there’s little agreement about what intelligence. .. likely to regard AI systems? 152 Will I ever be able to upload myself into a computer? 153 INDEX 157 x xi PREFACE Books in the Oxford University Press series What Everyone Needs to Know are