SAMVAT 2076 DIWALI CRACKERS MAY THIS DIWALI SHOWER THE LIGHT OF FINANCIAL GROWTH & WISDOM MAY THIS DIWALI SHOWER THE LIGHT OF FINANCIAL GROWTH & WISDOM 2019 SAMVAT 2076 S.No Co_Name Sector Infosys IT - Software ICICI Bank Banks Larsen & Toubro Infrastructure Dev Marico FMCG Tata Global Plantation & Plantation Products Torrent Power Power Gujarat Gas Gas Distribution *Closing as on 10th October 2019 NSE Symbol BSE Code Price* Target Upside Potential INFY 500209 782.90 884 13% ICICIBANK 532174 423.70 512 21% LT MARICO 1426.65 1680 18% MAY THIS DIWALI SHOWER THE LIGHT 531642 384.65 436 OF FINANCIAL GROWTH &13% WISDOM 500510 TATAGLOBAL 500800 266.30 325 22% TORNTPOWER 532779 281.50 348 24% GUJGASLTD 539336 169.30 210 24% INFOSYS LIMITED CMP:782.90 VALUE PARAMETERS Infosys is a leading provider of consulting, technology, 5.00 outsourcing and next-generation digital services, enabling 847.40/600.65 M.Cap (Rs in Cr.) Upside:13% PROFILE Face Value (Rs.) 52 Week High/Low Target Price:884 36.40 P/E Ratio (times) 21.51 P/B Ratio (times) 5.15 Dividend Yield (%) 2.80 Stock Exchange RISK • Trimming of IT costs by Clients • Margin erosion due to escalated offshore staff costs clients to execute strategies for their digital transformation 334241.18 EPS (Rs.) SAMVAT 2076 INVESTMENT RATIONALE VALUATION The management of the company remains reasonably • The company increased FY 20 revenue growth guidance range to 8.5%-10% in constant currency from 7.5% to 9% Also its first BSE quarter results and continued focus on operational efficiencies gives confidence on revenue and margin guidance for the year It maintained FY 20 operating margin guidance SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) range of 21%-23% • Foreign Institutions Management of the company expects operating margins for optimistic about growth prospects due to increase in win rate and increase in large deal pipeline These deals will help incentivize its multi-gate servicing capabilities through digital platforms and enhance presence in Europe Growth in retail is driven by large deal wins, and differentiation on digital deals Strong order wins coupled with healthy order pipeline would give on visibility of revenue growth the remaining year to improve on Q1 subject to a stable momentum Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price environment This margin improvement will be driven by target of Rs 884 in 8-10 months time frame on an expected continuous deployment of operational efficiencies like PE multiple of 23 times and FY20E EPS of Rs 38.45 utilization, rationalizing deployment, automation, and other Non Promoter Corporate Holding overheard efficiency measures Promoters Public & Others • Large deal win momentum continued in Q1 It won 13 large deals with a TCV of $2.7bn including the recently closed Stater deal with ABN AMRO Three deals each in Financial Services and Retail verticals, two deal each in Communication ` in cr ACTUAL REVENUE verticals, while one deal was in Life Sciences Geography FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19 FY Mar-20 70522.00 82675.00 90820.70 one from Rest of the World The share of new deals in overall large deal TCV was about 55% Client metrics remained 19011.00 20170.00 22529.17 EBIT 17148.00 18159.00 19895.79 NET INCOME 16029.00 15404.00 16601.69 35.50 35.38 38.45 BVPS 149.36 149.79 144.20 RoE 23.94% 23.72% 26.14% EPS and Energy Utilities Resources & Services and Manufacturing ESTIMATES EBITDA P/E Chart wise, eight were from Americas, four were from Europe and strong, number of 100 mn clients increased by to 27 • Digital continues to drive the growth of the company with 39% YoY growth and constituting 35.7% of revenues (vs 32.2% of revenues for TCS) Further, the company is seeing traction in areas of cloud, IoT, data analytics and customer experience, will be key growth drivers ICICI BANK LIMITED CMP:423.70 VALUE PARAMETERS ICICI Bank is a leading private sector bank in India The Bank’s 2.00 consolidated total assets stood at Rs.12.50 trillion at June 30, 458.45/298.50 M.Cap (Rs in Cr.) Upside:21% PROFILE Face Value (Rs.) 52 Week High/Low Target Price:512 10.47 P/E Ratio (times) 40.47 P/B Ratio (times) 2.41 Dividend Yield (%) 0.22 Stock Exchange • Unidentified Asset Slippages (Non- Identified NPA’s) • Regulatory Provisioning on assets and Corporate Governance issue and 15,101 ATMs across India VALUATION INVESTMENT RATIONALE The bank is focusing on growing the core operating profit in a risk calibrated manner instead of loan growth The bank aims • BSE Business of the bank increased at accelerated pace of 18% yoy to Rs 1253147 crore at end June 2019, supported by loans growth improving by 15% at Rs 592415 crore Meanwhile, the deposits growth galloped to 21% at Rs 660732 crore at end June 2019 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) • • Foreign RISK 2019 ICICI Bank currently has a network of 4,882 branches 273701.13 EPS (Rs.) SAMVAT 2076 Institutions Non Promoter Corporate Holding to improve share of profitable market opportunities by making delivery to the customer more seamless and frictionless through digitization and process improvements Business performance of the bank such as domestic loan The core operating profit of the bank has increased 21.2% to Rs growth, overall corporate advances, retail loan growth, CASA 6110 crore in Q1FY2020 The management of the bank has ratio are continuously improving Thus, it is expected that continued to see healthy growth in funding the stock will see a price target of Rs.512 in to 10 months Further, the retail loan book continued to expand at strong time frame on an expected P/Bvx of 2.8x and FY20 BVPS(Book pace of 22% yoy to Rs 363596 crore at end June 2019 With the Value Per Share) of Rs.181.90 healthy growth, the share of retail book in the overall advance book increased to 61.4% at end June 2019 from 60.2% end Public & Others March 2019 and 57.50% end June 2018 • The bank had indicated that credit cost in FY2020 is expected to reduce significantly compared to FY2019 and be in the range of 1.2% to 1.3% of average advances with variance in ` in cr ACTUAL credit costs across quarters based on the timing of ageing ESTIMATES based provisions on existing NPAs and the resolution of NPAs FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19 FY Mar-20 NET INT INC 23025.84 27015.00 32117.78 levels EBIT 24741.63 23437.90 25402.56 reduced from 3.67% in FY2019 to 2.40% in Q1FY2020 PRE-TAX PROFIT 7434.55 3776.76 18652.95 NET INCOME 6777.42 3363.30 13003.96 10.46 5.17 20.67 in Q1FY2020, while the bank has sharply reduced net NPA ratio below 2% level end June 2019 The net interest income of the EPS BVPS 163.57 168.10 182.90 RoE 6.61% 3.20% 11.85% P/B Chart The bank expects the credit costs to remain within tolerance • Provisions as a percentage of average advances The bank has exhibited improvement in margins and asset quality in Q1FY2020 The global NIM of the bank stood at 3.61% bank has surged 27%, while the core fee income of the bank has also increased at healthy pace of 10% in Q1FY2020 LARSEN & TOUBRO CMP:1426.65 VALUE PARAMETERS construction, manufacturing and financial services company 1606.70/1183.40 L&T has several levers across business/geographic segments, 200196.88 EPS (Rs.) 64.18 P/E Ratio (times) 22.23 P/B Ratio (times) 3.22 Dividend Yield (%) BSE of the investment cycle Lower capex owing to slowdown in the economy • Lower traction from International business owing to global trade wars • Consolidated Order Book of the group stood at Rs 294014 crore as of the total Order Book The Company successfully won new SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Foreign VALUATION The Company looks forward to a period of increased orders worth Rs 38700 crore at the group level during the investment momentum and continued growth Initiatives quarter ended June 30, 2019 registering a growth of 11% towards improved productivity, cost efficiencies derived International orders during the year at Rs 9005 crore constituted from leveraging digital technology, capacity utilization and 23% of the total order inflow Order wins in Infrastructure and capability enhancement are expected to help the Company Power segments were the major contributors to the order inflow maximize its shareholder returns (RoE) on a sustainable basis Institutions during the quarter While orders from the central and state Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs Non Promoter Corporate Holding governments were affected during the general elections, strong 1680 in 8-10 months time frame on an one year average PE Public & Others PSU and private sector orders enabled growth for the quarter multiple of 22.65 times and FY20E EPS of Rs 74.17 • Government announced significant push in infra and subsectors including roads, railways, port, airports, and urban infrastructure The capex outlook for these segments remain P/E Chart strong for the next 3-5 years With 16% market share in the last ` in cr five years, L&T has been able to maintain leadership position ESTIMATES FY Mar-19 • INVESTMENT RATIONALE at June 30, 2019, with international Order Book constituting 21% FY Mar-18 RISK which provide a robust foundation to capitalise on the next leg 1.26 Stock Exchange ACTUAL power T&D, and hydrocarbons, although private sector capex still remained tentative Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is a technology, engineering, 2.00 M.Cap (Rs in Cr.) Upside:18% PROFILE Face Value (Rs.) 52 Week High/Low Target Price:1680 SAMVAT 2076 in the infra space Apart from infra, Hydrocarbon order FY Mar-20 inflows in FY19 has been strong and therefore expected to REVENUE 119683.16 141007.09 160133.59 EBITDA 13571.38 16324.68 19219.16 EBIT 11642.65 14240.68 16844.37 7246.86 8610.38 10422.16 51.63 61.30 74.17 397.17 444.66 500.50 to help clients in their automation process It is confident of 15.32% further expanding RoE, as outlined in the current strategic NET INCOME EPS BVPS RoE 13.70% 14.59% show major contribution in FY20 and FY21 • L&T is a good proxy for domestic capex and the company has a credible strategy to improve both growth and return on equity • L&T’s management guided that it has well-articulated plans in different verticals, including plans to leverage its experience plan and that public capex remained robust in rail, metro, MARICO LIMITED CMP:384.65 VALUE PARAMETERS PROFILE 1.00 Marico is a consumer products company operating in the 403.70/286.25 beauty and wellness space The company's principal products Face Value (Rs.) 52 Week High/Low Target Price:436 M.Cap (Rs in Cr.) 41.76 P/B Ratio (times) 16.41 Dividend Yield (%) 1.23 Stock Exchange • INVESTMENT RATIONALE • Currency Fluctuation The company will continue to drive sustained profitable volume- • Inflationary trend in commodity prices led growth over the medium term, through its focus on strengthening the franchise in the core categories and driving • the new engines of growth towards gaining critical mass VALUATION Over the medium term, the company retains the target of 8- The company will continue to drive sustained profitable 10% volume growth and healthy market share gains in the volume-led growth over the medium term, through its focus India business • The company aims to build Healthy Foods, Premium Hair Foreign Nourishment and Male Grooming into growth engines of the Institutions future and expects to deliver value growth at 20% plus CAGR Non Promoter Corporate Holding over the medium term in these portfolios • Promoters In the International business, the company expects to clock over the medium term Operating margin is expected to be maintained at 18-19% ` in cr ACTUAL • demand environment for the industry at large As the management hope for a recovery in the overall sentiment FY Mar-19 FY Mar-20 REVENUE 6417.72 7334.00 8010.73 EBITDA 1137.76 1281.00 1561.87 EBIT 1048.68 1185.00 1441.53 814.49 1118.00 1132.40 6.32 8.67 8.81 normal quarter Modern Trade grew by 30% Modern Trade and 19.73 23.25 26.06 E-commerce contributes 13% and 4% of the India business 33.46% 40.35% 35.64% RoE mass Over the medium term, the company retains the target of 8-10% volume growth and healthy market share gains in the India business Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs 436 in 8-10 months time frame on year average PE multiple of 49.54 times and FY20E EPS of Rs 8.81 P/E Chart The Company delivered a decent performance in a challenging ESTIMATES FY Mar-18 BVPS on strengthening the franchise in the core categories and driving the new engines of growth towards gaining critical organic broad-based double-digit constant currency growth Public & Others EPS over the medium term RISK BSE SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) In the International business, the company expects to clock organic broad-based double-digit constant currency growth 9.21 P/E Ratio (times) NET INCOME • include edible oils and value added hair oils 49656.18 EPS (Rs.) Upside:13% SAMVAT 2076 towards the second half of the year, it will continue to push for volume driven growth and market share gains • With sluggishness in wholesale persisting, rural stayed ahead of urban in the traditional channel Modern Trade and ECommerce continued to headline growth, while CSD had a respectively E-Commerce almost doubled TATA GLOBAL BEVERAGES LTD VALUE PARAMETERS Target Price:325 1.00 Tata Global Beverages is a beverage and branded food business 287.60/177.50 company engaged in trading, production and distribution of M.Cap (Rs in Cr.) 38.65 P/B Ratio (times) 2.30 Dividend Yield (%) 0.92 Stock Exchange RISK led by new launches It would benefit from a shift from unorganized to organized sales on the back of premiumisation • Consumption Slowdown and strong marketing campaigns • Rise in Minimum Procurement Prices of tea at auction BSE • SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Foreign Institutions Non Promoter Corporate Holding • Promoters Public & Others INVESTMENT RATIONALE VALUATION India business witnessed volume growth of 8% aided by double The management of the company has clearly highlighted its digit growth in Tata Tea Premium and Agni Recently its intention to be a broader FMCG company in India With launched Spice Mix revenues surged 50%+ YoY Value growth in recently announced merger with Tata Chemicals, acquisition Q1FY20 was 7% as premium brands like Chakra witnessed of branded tea business of Dhunseri tea and the JV between marginal de-growth due to a market slowdown in Tamil Nadu the PepsiCo India, it is all set to scale up its network and due to acute water crisis whereas economy brands such as business to capture opportunities in long term Thus it is Agni and Elaichi posted robust growth expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs 325 in Starbucks store count was at 151 stores (5 new store additions to 10 months time frame on a current P/Ex of 38.65 times in Q1FY20) Topline saw strong growth of ~23% in Q1FY20 The FY20E EPS of 8.41 management highlighted that same- store sales growth (SSG) for Starbucks has been robust ` in cr ACTUAL • Consolidated sales increased 5.2% YoY to Rs 1,897.1 crore, tea business reported moderate growth of 4% whereas the FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19 FY Mar-20 6815.35 7251.50 7784.07 slight improvement of 16 bps to 14% The company also entered the Ready To Drink and cold beverage segments and is 838.91 785.91 942.84 EBIT 722.87 663.34 783.31 516.69 441.48 523.34 8.18 7.00 8.41 BVPS 111.42 116.17 119.85 RoE 7.77% 6.15% 7.06% P/E Chart mainly driven by 26% growth in the non-branded business The ESTIMATES EBITDA EPS Dhunseri Tea and Industries segment in India & expects to continue to grow above industry 6.89 P/E Ratio (times) NET INCOME complete the merger of consumer business in latter part of this year Also, it has acquired branded tea business of tea, coffee and water It commands 20% market share in tea 16806.98 EPS (Rs.) REVENUE Upside:22% PROFILE Face Value (Rs.) 52 Week High/Low CMP:266.30 SAMVAT 2076 coffee business declined 3% Operating margins witnessed a garnering a positive response In India, the trend suggests a slow & steady shift towards green tea • Recently it has announced of acquiring branded food businesses from Tata Chemicals Ltd in an all-stock transaction that is aimed at creating a consumer business company with revenues of Rs 9100 crores The management expects to TORRENT POWER LIMITED CMP:281.50 VALUE PARAMETERS PROFILE Face Value (Rs.) Torrent Power is one of the leading companies in the power sector, it is an integrated power utility and is one of the largest private sector players in India, having interests in power generation, transmission, distribution and manufacturing and supply of power cables 10.00 52 Week High/Low 313.80/217.30 M.Cap (Rs in Cr.) 13529.36 EPS (Rs.) 19.73 P/E Ratio (times) 14.27 P/B Ratio (times) 1.51 Dividend Yield (%) 1.78 Stock Exchange INVESTMENT RATIONALE • BSE SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) The Company distributes nearly 16.68 billion units to over 3.32 million customers in the cities of Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Surat and Dahej SEZ in Gujarat, Bhiwandi in Maharashtra and Agra in Uttar Pradesh • The Company further strengthened its leadership position in Distribution business and has been a) awarded the Distribution license for Dholera SIR Area in Gujarat and b) appointed the Distribution Franchisee by MSEDCL for the Shil, Mumbra and Kalwa areas in Thane District in Maharashtra Institutions Promoters Public & Others ` in cr ACTUAL FY Mar-19 FY Mar-20 11512.09 13150.97 14681.55 EBITDA 3117.13 3199.48 3523.47 EBIT 1985.63 1972.95 2245.70 942.31 898.94 1067.20 19.61 18.70 22.20 BVPS 160.62 187.09 213.76 RoE 12.90% 10.77% 10.79% REVENUE NET INCOME EPS • During the quarter the regulator approved a long term power procurement arrangement for 278 MW between the Company's Licensed Distribution Business and UNOSUGEN Power Plant (capacity of 382.5 MW) The approval, for the balance life of the plant of 19 years, will enable steady base load operations for UNOSUGEN plant, resulting in recovery of project loan interest and depreciation thereon • The consolidated debt to equity ratio as at the end of FY 201819 was 1.14 (FY 2017-18 – 1.24) • Consolidated sales of Torrent Power were up by 6% to Rs 3736.13 crore and Profit saw a growth of 22% to Rs 276.59 crore for the quarter ended June 2019 driven by Increase in contribution from merchant power sales during the quarter; Higher profits from Renewables business; Improved performance of licensed and ESTIMATES FY Mar-18 The Company has an aggregate installed generation capacity of 3,703 MW comprising of 2,730 MW of gas-based capacity, 611 MW of renewable capacity and 362 MW of coal-based capacity It has an additional 841 MW of renewable projects under construction and on completion of the said projects; the aggregate renewable capacity would be 1,452 MW and the aggregate total capacity would be over 4,540 MW • Foreign Non Promoter Corporate Holding Target Price:348 Upside:23% SAMVAT 2076 franchised distribution businesses on back of reduction in T&D losses, higher regulated ROE in licensed distribution business & favorable resolution of a regulatory dispute RISK • Risk of regulatory interventions • Macro-economic risks such as growth slowdown & uncertainty in demand VALUATION The company is reducing its debt equity ratio with a focus on improvement of efficiency Moreover, improvement in T&D, focus on green power project and commissioning of renewable power plants would give good strength to the company Government’s policy push like emphasis on clean coal technologies, replacing old plants with new super critical plants, policy on automatic transfer of coal linkage, stricter environmental norms and emphasis on digitalization will go a long way in reenergizing the coal based power generation sector Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.348 in to 10 months time frame on year average P/E of 15.66x and FY20EPS of Rs.22.20 P/E Chart GUJARAT GAS LIMITED CMP:169.30 VALUE PARAMETERS Gujarat Gas Limited (GGL), is largest City Gas Distribution 2.00 player with its presence spread across 23 Districts in the State 195.00/116.00 M.Cap (Rs in Cr.) Upside:24% PROFILE Face Value (Rs.) 52 Week High/Low Target Price:210 • Fluctuation in commodity prices • Regulatory changes Geographical Area (GA) (excluding already authorised areas) 6.25 which includes Palghar District of Maharashtra In 10th CGD P/E Ratio (times) 27.09 P/B Ratio (times) 5.28 GAs comprising of 17 cities in the state of Punjab, Haryana, Dividend Yield (%) 0.57 Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, making GGL a pan India Stock Exchange RISK of Gujarat, Union Territory of Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Thane 11654.44 EPS (Rs.) SAMVAT 2076 bidding round announced by PNGRB the company has won BSE Company VALUATION The company has steady revenue growth momentum and sustainable margins It shall continue to focus on growing the penetration in the current operating areas by increasing the PNG connections and additional CNG stations while tapping the untapped potential by expeditious rollout of distribution SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) INVESTMENT RATIONALE network in the newly acquired geographic areas as well With this focused endeavour GGL shall continue its efforts in • The company has around 23,200 kms of gas pipeline network It has around 344 CNG stations and distributes approximately 8.5 mmscmd of natural gas to about 13,55,000 households, Foreign approximately lakh CNG vehicles (serving per day) and to Institutions Non Promoter Corporate Holding over 3540 industrial customers • Promoters REVENUE 7962.48 improved due to that effort and in last budget, Gujarat government allocated 1,000 crore for CNG buses Therefore, 984.64 1492.08 EBIT 623.24 696.63 1199.91 BVPS RoE 292.44 436.32 734.93 4.25 6.34 10.81 27.11 32.03 40.90 16.57% 21.43% 29.10% P/B Chart Gujarat now So ecosystem around the company has been 10641.30 895.06 EPS Government of Gujarat has also initiated a CNG Sahbhagi 550 square meter and permission process has been fastened in FY Mar-20 EBITDA NET INCOME Management of the company is aiming at setting up more than eased land requirement from 1000 square meter to about 500- ESTIMATES 6174.33 of Rs 210 in 8-10 months time frame on an one year average PBV multiple of 5.14times and FY20E BVPS of Rs 40.90 Scheme and also pushing for this market in other way and have ` in cr FY Mar-19 years Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price target increase volume of 9-9.5 mmscmd in FY20 • FY Mar-18 augment an energetic top-line and bottom-line in coming 63 CNG stations in financial year 2020, for the target to Public & Others ACTUAL providing clean fuel solutions across all operational area to all these will help it to improve its CNG volumes and that needs to push more CNG stations in time to come • The debt stands at Rs 1,800 crore and the management of the company is looking at EBITDA margin of around 13 Percent in FY20 SAMVAT 2076 SMC Research Desk E-mail: smc.care@smcindiaonline.com SMC Research also available on Reuters Corporate Office: 11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi - 110005 Tel: +91-11-30111000 www.smcindiaonline.com Mumbai Office: Lotus Corporate Park, A Wing 401 / 402 , 4th Floor , Graham Firth Steel Compound, Off Western Express Highway, Jay Coach Signal, Goreagon (East) Mumbai - 400063 Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-67341697 Kolkata Office: 18, Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4, 5th Floor, Kolkata - 700001 Tel.: 033 6612 7000/033 4058 7000 Fax: 033 6612 7004/033 4058 7004 SMC Global Securities Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and is licensed to 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jurisdiction of Delhi High court 10 ... 2076 SMC Research Desk E-mail: smc. care@smcindiaonline.com SMC Research also available on Reuters Corporate Office: 11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi - 110005 Tel: +91-11-30111000 www.smcindiaonline.com... June 2019 With the Value Per Share) of Rs.181.90 healthy growth, the share of retail book in the overall advance book increased to 61.4% at end June 2019 from 60.2% end Public & Others March 2019. .. *Closing as on 10th October 2019 NSE Symbol BSE Code Price* Target Upside Potential INFY 500209 782.90 884 13% ICICIBANK 532174 423.70 512 21% LT MARICO 1426.65 1680 18% MAY THIS DIWALI SHOWER THE LIGHT