Đánh giá tác động kinh tế của biến đổi khí hậu đến khai thác thủy sản và giải pháp ứng phó của việt nam tt tiếng anh

MINISTRY OF PLANNING AND INVESTMENT MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING CENTRAL INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT NGUYEN THI VINH HA EVALUATING ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES AND COPING SOLUTIONS OF VIETNAM Major: Economic Development Code: 9.31.01.05 ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL THESIS IN ECONOMICS Hanoi - 2019 The thesis is completed at: Central Institute for Economic Management Scientific instructors: Dr Nguyen Manh Hai Dr Nguyen Viet Cuong Reviewer 1: Prof.Dr Ngo Thang Loi Reviewer : Assoc.Prof.Dr Nguyen Ngoc Thanh Reviewer : Assoc.Prof.Dr Vu Si Tuan The thesis will be defended against the Thesis Assessment Committee of Institute Level, to be held at Central Institute for Economic Management at … date ……… 2019 The thesis could be found at: Library of Central Institute for Economic Management National Library, Hanoi INTRODUCTION Rationales for studying thesis topic The fisheries sector plays a significant role in providing human food and livelihoods Vietnam is one of the 25 major countries in the world for catch fisheries The world is facing a series of pressing environmental issues, in which climate change is a serious threat to people and nature on global scale and requires all countries to work together for mitigation and adaptation Fisheries is one of the first sectors affected by climate change, including losses of revenue and income of businesses and households in many areas, although sometimes climate change increases the benefits of aquatic products for some other countries and regions It is expected that Vietnam's catch fisheries will be affected by climate change However, studies on impacts of climate change on fisheries in Vietnam are quite few Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam to provide appropriate coping solutions Purpose and significance of the thesis research The thesis aims to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam, thereby proposing solutions to State policies and activities of fishing communities to cope with climate change to the years 2025 and 2055 On scientific significance, the thesis justifies theoretical basis and methods of evaluating economic impacts of climate change on fisheries The thesis also develops a model to evaluate current situation and forecast the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries of Vietnam in terms of output and currency On practical significance, the research result is an important input for Vietnam's fisheries sector to develop a plan to cope with and adapt to climate change The thesis also makes sense thanks to proposing solutions to the fisheries sector in response to the impacts of climate change Structure of the thesis In addition to the introduction, the conclusions and the recommendations on further studies, the thesis includes the following contents: Chapter – Literature review in economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions Chapter – Theoretical basis, methods to evaluate economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions Chapter – Current situation of economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions for Vietnam Chapter – Forecasting impacts of climate change on catch fisheries until 2025, 2055 and proposing coping solutions for Vietnam CHAPTER – LITERATURE REVIEW IN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES AND COPING SOLUTIONS 1.1 Literarure review in economic impact of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions 1.1.1 Literature review of studies abroad Researches by many authors show that economic impacts of climate change on commercial fishing includes several factors, such as changes in aquatic distribution and stocks, leading to changes in investment capital, labour, market, and distribution of profits and costs among related parties, long-term profitability, and ability to cope with climate change It is possible to classify quantitative research methods of economic impacts of climate change on commercial fishing in two groups: (1) group of econometric methods, including production function models, bioeconomic models, spatial simulation models, time series data models, and integrated assessment models; and (2) group of noneconometric methods, including cost benefit analysis and contingent evaluation method Studies show that there are three directions to cope with climate change, including mitigation, adaptation, and integrated management of natural resources Authors have proposed various measures to help catch fisheries respond to climate change, such as: reducing fuel subsidies; restoring mangroves and protecting coral reefs to help absorb CO2; implementing sustainable fisheries; allowing large capacity fishing ships to move flexibly; developing alternative livelihoods to support coastal communities; and integratedly managing natural resources to adapt to climate change 1.1.2 Literature review of domestic studies In Vietnam there have been a number of studies on economic impacts of climate change on catch and aquaculture Authors propose several solutions such as applying an ecosystem approach to fisheries management, improving early warning systems and enhancing maritime safety, reducing over-exploitation, establishing protected marine seas, livelihood diversification, and raising awareness and capacity to adapt to climate change 1.1.3 Limitations of previous studies (research gaps) and key issues that the thesis will focus on solving There are few quantitative evaluations of economic impacts of climate change on commercial fishing in tropical areas Most studies assess impacts of climate change on specific aquatic species There is no disaggregation of losses to producer and consumer surpluses Many studies only focus on forecasting losses based on revenue or damage to producers' costs Moreover, valuing economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries at national scale is not available in Vietnam There are few domestic studies mentioning climate change response solutions of the Government Some of the above limitations will be dealt with and resolved in this thesis Specifically, the thesis will evaluate economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in tropical sea of Vietnam, quantify impacts, including losses (or benefits) of fishers and consumers at the national scale The thesis will also study solutions that the Government has conducted and propose recommendations to help fishers effectively respond to climate change 1.2 Direction to solve research problems of the thesis 1.2.1 Research objectives and questions The main research objective of the thesis is to evaluate economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam Three specific research objectives are: (1) Justifying theoretical basis and methods for evaluating economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions; (2) Evaluating and forecasting economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam; and (3) Proposing solutions for catch fisheries to respond to climate change in Vietnam Research questions to be addressed includes: How does climate change affect fish resources and fisheries? Are there any solutions to respond to climate change impacts on catch fisheries? Experiences of economies in the world in coping with climate change for catch fisheries? What are economic losses (or benefits) of climate change to producers, consumers and society in Vietnam, in terms of catch yield and currency? What solutions are needed to respond to economic impacts of climate change in catch fisheries of Vietnam? There are two main research hypotheses to be tested: H1: Climate change has a negative impact on Vietnam's fishstocks H2: Climate change has a negative impact on fisheries catch yield in Vietnam 1.2.2 Objects and scope of research The research objects are the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and solutions for Vietnam Scope of contents: The study only focuses on evaluating economic impacts of climate change on commercial fishing, not including aquaculture Time range: Historical data from 1976 to 2017, and forecasts of the years 2025 and 2055 Spatial scope of the thesis is Vietnam, including catch in coastal, inshore, offshore, open sea and inland waters In Vietnam, the catch of marine products accounts for the majority of the total fishing production, so the thesis will focus on analyzing impacts as well as making recommendations for marine catch The thesis also provides recommendations that can be applied to both sea and inland waters fishing, and some recommendations are prioritized to inland waters fishing 1.2.3 Research approaches and methodology 1.2.3.1 Research approaches The thesis uses a number of approaches including global approach, systematic approach, fishing condition approach, and fish producer and consumer approach The thesis performs research steps, including (1) Literature review, (2) Understanding theoretical basis and methods of evaluating economic impacts of climate change on fishing and solutions, (3) Evaluating and forecasting economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam, and (4) Proposing solutions for fisheries to coping with climate change 1.2.3.2 Methods of collecting data and information Desk study: Collecting published studies and data of the General Statistics Office and specialized agencies, Vietnam living standards survey, etc Field survey: Interviewing fisher groups to understand impacts of climate factors and weather conditions to fishing activities as well as to understand the current coping measures of fishers 1.2.3.3 Research methods - Qualitative methods: Synthesis, analysis and reasoning to justify theoretical basis and methods of evaluating economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and response solutions; statistic description, comparison, interpolation and extrapolation to assess the current situation and forecast economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries of Vietnam; SWOT analysis to justify the rationales for making policy proposals to cope with climate change for fishing activities in Vietnam - Quantitative methods: Multivariate regression analysis using production function model to measure and forecast the impacts of climate change on fishstocks and catch yield Vietnam; Regression analysis of demand function and partial equilibrium analysis to measure the change in social surplus, thereby determining the damages (or benefits) caused by climate change to consumers, producers and society in the fish market Tools for data processing include MS Excel, Eviews, and Stata 1.2.3.4 Research framework State policies Change in environment of fishes Global climate change CO2 increase Temperture increase Precipitation change Extreme weather phenomena Water temperature pH, salinity Oxygen concentration Mangroves Coral reefs Seagrass Change in fish biology and ecology Reproduction Growth Matured size Allocation Density Compostion Species invsation/ extinction Fish resources Fish stocks Fishing area allocation Fishing Fishing infrastructure Fish supply Social surplus Fish demand Consumer surplus Producer surplus Catching Fishing logistics Factors affecting fish demand Fishing ports Boats Tools Population size Comsumption preference Income Substitutes (aquaculture products) Fishing activities in communities Source: Author’s suggestion CHAPTER – THEORETICAL BASIS, METHODS TO EVALUATE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES AND COPING SOLUTIONS 2.1 Definitions and some general issues 2.1.1 Catch fisheris Catch fisheries, or commercial fishing, is a part of fisheries, in addition to protection and development of aquatic resources, aquaculture; processing, sale, purchase, export and import of aquatic products Catch fishing activities play an important role in economic development 2.1.2 Climate change Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate for an extended period due to natural processes or human activities, manifested by global warming, rising sea levels and increasing extreme weather phenomena 2.1.3 Economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries In the scope of the thesis, evaluating economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries is understood as analyzing and assessing the positive, negative, short-term and long-term effects of climate change in terms of fish stocks, fishing yield, and profit of fishers, benefits of consumers and society in commercial fishing The impacts of climate change on aquatic resources are different in various places, including positive and negative effects Most studies show that fish stocks tend to decrease in tropical and subtropical waters Inland waters fisheries also tend to be negatively affected by climate change Climate change affects catching and fishing logistics, specifically increasing number of inactive days due to bad weather, affecting fishing infrastructure, increasing travelling time, oil and ice consumption Fishing technology and techniques need to be changed to adapt to climate change Expenses for exploration, searching and attracting aquatic products rise Costs of purchasing and transporting seafood also increase Marine catches may decrease in tropical waters and increase in temperate regions International studies show that potential fish stocks and catches in Vietnam will decrease under climate change scenarios 11 affect household consumption of aquatic products, including geographic features (regions, location to the sea), demographic characteristics such as age, gender, marital status and occupation of of household head 2.3 Rationale for solutions to climate change response in catch fisheries 2.3.1 The need for solutions to cope with climate change in catch fisheries The World Bank emphasizes three axes to be concerned in the reform of commercial fishing: (1) economic axis to maximize profits, focusing on the effectiveness of the fishing regime; (2) social axis to ensure equity issues in the distribution of resources and social benefits; and (3) environmental axis to ensure the maintenance of ecosystems and fairness among generations while ensuring healthy economic development In theory, the maximum economic yield (MEY) is lower than the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), so it is possible to simultaneously satisfy economic optimism and sustainability However, this optimization is only achieved if there is no open access, which leads to an increase in catch effort until fishing profit is zero, and catch yield (E0) exceeds MSY (Figure 2-6) Revenue, Cost Total cost Total revenue MEY MSYE0 E0 Fishing effort Figure 2-6: Catch yields Following social axis, commercial fishing is considered as a solution to ensure social security Therefore, countries may have to sacrifice economic (or ecological) goals to allow free access to the poor 12 2.3.2 State policy solutions for catch fisheries in climate change There are various policies in several countries include input control, output control, technical control, buy back, economic tools such as taxes, fees, subsidy removal, integrated response to climate change in socio-economic development plan, anti-corruption, enhancing transparency and accountability and international cooperation 2.3.3 Solutions to commercial fishing activities in climate change These solutions include transfer of property use ownership and group fishing rights, co-management, strengthening fishers’ capacity for adapting climate change, restructure of fisheries production and developing alternative livelihoods 2.4 Experience of some economies on application of solutions to cope with climate change in catch fisheries and lessons for Vietnam The Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) of the European Union (EU), coping solutions of the United Kingdoms, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia and Vauatu give successful examples of responses to climate change Meanwhile, China 's policy on subsidizing offshore fishing has led to over-fishing, depleting domestic aquatic resources For countries expecting to suffer from negative impacts of climate change such as Vietnam, fish stocks are likely to decline, the policy orientation is to limit catches to sustainable level Even in the case of positive impacts, policies to limit catch yield are still applied to conserve aquatic species that are at risk of decline as well as to maintain and enrich stocks of immigrant species 13 CHAPTER – CURRENT SITUATION OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES AND COPING SOLUTIONS FOR VIETNAM 3.1 Overview of current situation of catch fisheries in Vietnam 3.1.1 The role of catch fisheries in the economy The fisheries sector plays an important economic role, including provision of livelihoods and employment, and foreign currencies from exports In addition, catch fisheries also has profound significance on national security 3.1.2 Status of catch fisheries development in Vietnam since 1976 The total fish reserves of Vietnam are estimated at 4.36 million tonnes The fishing capacity is estimated at 1.75 million tonnes The catch yield reached 3.4 million tonnes in 2017, of which marine the catch output was 3.2 million tonnes In 2016, Vietnam had more than 100,000 fishing vessels, of which about 65% of boats are under 20 CV, operating mainly in coastal waters while this region only accounted for 11% of the exclusive economic zone Marine fish stocks are declining and coastal aquatic fishes are being overexploited Fishing labours are mainly manual and have low education level Transmission of experience among fishers is important, leading to the use of traditional fishing gear and fishing methods that are harmful to coastal fisheries 3.2 Situation of climate change in Vietnam since 1976 In the period of 1976-2017, annual average temperature, total rainfall and number of storms in the East Sea tend to increase at the statistical significance of 1%, the trend of change is not clear by periods and regions El Nino and La Nina tend to be stronger 14 3.3 Analyzing and assessing the status of economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam 3.3.1 Practices of the impacts of weather and climate factors on catch fisheries Some studies show that impacts of climate change on aquatic resources in Vietnam is negative in both short and long terms Climate change affects marine ecosystems, changes in types of populations and migration of marine fish, changing the traditional fishing grounds Adult fisheries are smaller in size, higher in mortality rates Extreme weather phenomena such as storms and high tides, etc are more difficult to forecast The fishing logistics has to change following changes in aquatic distribution The preparation of storm shelters for offshore ships also needs to be taken into account Climate change also increase immigrant species and fish stocks from the equatorial sea However, this immigration will not enough to compensate for the fish migration to the North or to further open sea, and remaining fishes turn into smaller size 3.3.2 Results of fisher focus group discussions on impacts of climate change on catch fisheries The survey showed that the commercial fishing depends heavily on weather conditions, including storms, heavy rains, typhoons, fog, very cold periods, and very hot periods Monsoons also greatly affect catch activities Fishers commonly perceive that climate change has a negative impact on fish stocks, in addition to other causes such as overexploitation, pollution and fishing using destructive tools Fishers learn fishing and natural disaster prevention knowledge mainly via exchanging experiences within families and communities 15 3.3.3 Results of quantitative evaluation of the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam using production function regression model Tests show that there is long-term relationship among variables The regression models have no autocorrelation, no heteroskedasticity, and no multicollinearity The residuals of the models are white noise The coefficients are stable Therefore, the regression models are appropriate to the data In the short term, results of the models show that when sea surface temperature rises by oC, catch yield decreases in the next consecutive three years by 15.6%, 16.0% and 15.2% respectively Sea surface temperature significantly reduces CPUE by 1.3%; 9.4%; 10.8% and 7.0% respectively in the next four years If rainfall increases by 1%, catch yield will decrease by 0.3% per year for the next three years However, the effect of rainfall on CPUE in the short term is not statistically significant It seems that rains effect catching activities rather than fish stocks When the number of storms increases by 1, yield of the next years decrease by 1.2% Number of storms does not affect fish stocks significantly El Nino also negatively affects catch Table 3-7: Long-run forms of ARDL models Variables Dependence variable LnCapacity LnLabour SST LnRainfall Typhoon SOI *p-value < 0.1 Model (catch) Coefficient Standard error LnCatch Model (CPUE) Coefficient Standard error 0,1360 0,0754 0,3564 *** 0,0587 -0,2256 *** 0,0686 -0,5955 *** 0,1542 -0,0050 0,0039 0,0663 *** 0,0198 **p-value < 0.05 ***p-value < 0.01 CPUE -0,5700 *** 0,3540 *** -0,2529 *** 0,1601 -0,0053 0,0848 *** 0,0472 0,0545 0,0566 0,2297 0,0037 0,0151 Source: Research results of the thesis 16 In the long term, when sea surface temperature increases by oC, catch output decreases by 22.56%, CPUE decreases by 0.25 tonnes/CV When rainfall increases by 1%, output decreases by 0.60%, and CPUE does not change significantly As the number of storms increases, the changes in catch output and CPUE are not statistically significant When the SOI increases by unit (i.e El Nino decreases), output increases by 6.63% and CPUE increases by 0.08 tonnes/CV 3.4 Current status of response solutions to climate change for catch fisheries of Vietnam 3.4.1 Current status of the Communist Party's view on climate change response for catch fisheries In the past 10 years, the Communist Party has been aware and paid attention to climate change response Resolution No 24-NQ/TW dated June 3, 2013 proposed a proactive approach to responding to climate change, strengthening natural resource management and environmental protection on the basis of integrated, interdisciplinary, inter-regional and global management methods; creating opportunities to promote transformation of growth model towards sustainable development; at the same time, adaptation and mitigation must be conducted, in which climate change adaptation, proactive prevention of natural disaster are prioritized 3.4.2 Solutions to respond to climate change in catch fisheries of Vietnam since 1976 The Government has set a target to reduce catch production by 2020, and limiting catch yields for each sea area However, policies for the fisheries sector are still inclined to subsidize for the development of offshore fishing, thus increasing the catch production 17 Input control, output control and technical control measures have not been enforced or ineffective 3.4.3 Limitations, causes and problems to be solved Analysis of the current situation of climate change response solutions in catch fisheries of Vietnam show some outstanding limitations, including: Lack of effective control tools; decentralization is not strong enough; co-management is still experimental; solutions to enhance climate resilience are not enough except storm prevention In the coming time, Vietnam needs to focus on resolving excessive catch fishing, as climate change will make this problem more serious and may lead to depletion of aquatic resources The Government needs to overcome the causes, including focusing on ecological objectives in fishing management, strengthening human and financial resources to effectively implement the fishing management tools and responding to climate change; conducting measures to enhance adaptability and resilience of climate change for catch fisheries CHAPTER - FORECASTING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES UNTIL 2025, 2055 AND PROPOSING COPING SOLUTIONS FOR VIETNAM 4.1 Forecasting the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries until 2025 and 2055 4.1.1 Prospects of catch fisheries development and climate change scenarios for Vietnam 4.1.1.1 Forecast of population growth and demand shift Vietnam’s population in 2014 was 90.7 million people, it is expected to increase by 11% by 2025 and by 22% by 2049 When the population increases, the total demand for fish products will increase, the demand 18 curve will turn right (up) with an increase of 10% and 22% respectively However, due to the development of aquaculture, future fishing demand is likely to increase more slowly than population growth 4.1.1.2 Elasticity of fish demand to price The regression result of the demand function shows that the elasticity of demand for aquatic products is -0.20, i.e when the fish price increases by 1%, the fish demand will decrease by 0.20% In this study, for simplicity, we assume that the elasticity of fish demand to its own price does not change over time 4.1.1.3 Elasticity of fish supply to price The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) of the International Food Policy Research Institute shows that the elasticity of supply for aquatic products is in the range of 0.2 to 0.4 This thesis assumes that the elasticity of fish supply is 0.2 as the catch yield in Vietnam has exceeded the maximum sustainable production and the supply curve is inelastic 4.1.1.4 Forecasts of changes in temperature and rainfall based on climate change scenarios In this thesis, the base year is chosen as 2014 The forecast years are the mid-years of the early period of the century (2016-2035) and the mid-century period (2046-2065), i.e 2025 and 2055 Table 4-3: Forecast of changes in temperature and precipitation based on climate change scenarios compared to 2014 Mean change (min-max) Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%) RCP4.5 2025 0,4 8,7 RCP8.5 2055 1,1 12,6 2025 0,9 9,0 2055 1,9 13,1 Source: Calculation from MONRE’s data 19 4.1.2 Forecasts of impacts of climate change on fishing production to 2025 and 2055 Research results show that catch production decreases as temperature and rainfall increase According to the RCP4.5 scenario, the output reduction is 14.24% and 32.38% by 2025 respectively Table 4-4: Forecasts of impacts of climate change to catch yield 2025 Decrease of catch yield due to RCP4.5 9,02 5,22 14,24 Increase in temperature (%) Increase in rainfall (%) Climate change (%) 2055 RCP8.5 13,54 5,40 18,94 RCP4.5 24,82 7,56 32,38 RCP8.5 38,35 7,86 46,21 Source: Research results of the thesis 4.1.3 Forecasts of impacts of climate change on social surpluses of catch fisheries in 2025 and 2055 4.1.3.1 Case study: the demand curve remains unchanged Figure 4-1: Social losses due to the impacts of climate change before and after discount, in case the demand curve remains unchanged billion VND 150.000 100.000 50.000 2025, RCP 4.5 2025, RCP8.5 Loss of consumer surplus before discount Loss of consumer surplus after discount 2055, RCP 4.5 2055, RCP 8.5 Loss of producer surplus before discount Loss of producer surplus after discount Source: Research results of the thesis 4.1.3.2 Case study: the demand curve turns right Table 4-6: Impacts of climate change on social surplus if the demand curve turns right Change in surpluses (billion VND) Before discount Consumers 2025 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 -40.952 -54.022 2055 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 -85.503 -118.994 20 Change in surpluses (billion VND) After discount Producers Society Consumers Producers Society 2025 RCP4.5 37.846 -3.106 -28.189 26.051 -2.138 RCP8.5 38.997 -15.025 -37.186 26.843 -10.343 2055 RCP4.5 99.696 14.192 -28.345 33.049 4.705 RCP8.5 101.498 -17.496 -39.447 33.647 -5.800 Source: Research results of the thesis 4.1.4 Prospects and implications of policies and solutions for the Government When the aggregate demand increases, fishers benefit from higher prices even if climate change reduces yields The benefit of fishers depends little on climate change scenarios but heavily on the increase in aggregate demand Consumer surplus decreases depending heavily on climate change scenarios The greater the impact of climate change, the longer the time, the more social surplus tends to decrease and turns from gain to damage This suggests that the Government should limit losses by compensating consumers by aquaculture products, while limiting catch yield towards sustainable fishing 4.2 SWOT analysis of catch fisheries in climate change Table 4-8 SWOT analysis S – Strengths S1: The Party and the Government pay attention to responding to climate change; S2: The Government has applied a number of regulations and policies to help the agro-forestry-fishery sector respond to climate change; S3: Residents are initially aware and have basic understanding of climate change and its impacts; S4: Fishers have traditional experience to respond to natural disasters W – Weaknesses W1: Open access, small scale fishing, coastal fishing, large number of fishing boats; W2: Lack of effective fisheries management tools, such as no quota for fishing vessels under m in length, no regulation on transfer of fishing quota, fishing licenses without flexibility in time and space, slow adjustment of technical controls, inappropriate fishing subsidy policies, etc W3: Lack of fisheries management human resources; 21 W4: Research capacity on fish growth, distribution and impacts of climate change on fisheries are weak; W5: Lack of financial resources for responding to climate change O – Opportunities O1: Advances in science and technology, research results related to climate change in the world have made significant progress, allowing Vietnam to acquire and apply to minimize the impact of climate change on catch fisheries; O2: Vietnam receives active support from the international community in research and development of climate change adaptation policies; O3: Aquaculture sector has developed; marine farming technology has been applied in Vietnam; O4: Industrial revolution 4.0 is demanding innovation in catch fisheries sector T – Threats T1: Problems such as environmental pollution and over-exploitation continue to threaten to deplete coastal fisheries resources; T2: Climate change and its impacts are expected to change fishing grounds, reduce fishing production in the future, natural disasters such as storms and tropical depressions will take place with increasing intensity; T3: Increasing competition to exploit various economic values of marine resources; T4: EC promotes the ban on IUU fishing activities; T5: Increasing demand for aquatic products Based on the results of SWOT analysis, the thesis proposes SO strategies (promoting strengths to exploit opportunities), ST (promoting strengths to overcome threats), WO (exploiting opportunities to limit weaknesses), WT (identifying and limiting weaknesses to overcome threats), and integrated strategies (based on strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats all together) 4.3 Proposed orientations and solutions to respond to climate change in catch fisheries in Vietnam by 2025 and 2055 4.3.1 Catch fishing orientation in Vietnam to 2055 in climate change In the orientation to 2055, Vietnam needs to implement fisheries management towards ecological sustainability, which limits catch output through various management tools The demand for marine products should mainly be met from marine farming activities 22 4.3.2 Proposed solutions to cope with climate change in catch fisheries of Vietnam until 2025 4.3.2.1 State policy solutions - Input and output control using transferable quota system, also applied to coastal fishing vessels (such as group fishing rights) Quotas should be determined based on regular research on stocks of species in sea areas in climate change Buy back regime should be applied to help the Government flexibly adjust quotas if climate change causes aquatic resources to fluctuate faster than expected Study of impact of climate change for regular updating technical control Application of information technology to strengthen control measures - Stop subsidies, tax exemption and reduction in fishing; using financial funds to build anchorage areas to avoid storms, strengthen communication facilities and online control system, strengthen the capacity to prevent IUU fishing activities, support the development of marine farming, improve the quality of seafood processing and support livelihood conversion - Integrated fisheries management, simultaneous application of many measures and tools, including integrated response to climate change into socio-economic development plans of communities, localities and nations - International cooperation in research, financial support and catch fisheries - Reduction of oil subsidies to increase fuel efficiency to reduce CO2 emissions 4.3.2.2 Solutions for organizing fishing activities in the community - Application of community-based management and comanagement to limit catch production and increase economic 23 efficiency in the context of climate change Improving knowledge of climate change and raising awareness on impacts of climate change in fisheries so that they can actively and positively respond to climate change in the process of co-management of catch fisheries - Assigning water surface use rights for long-term fishing so that people can implement appropriate fishing strategy to ensure long-term economic efficiency; Setting up a market system for transfer of water use rights so that market can help optimize the allocation of fishing rights - Development of alternative livelihoods for poor fishers, especially fishing related livelihoods such as marine aquaculture, aquatic product processing to improve aquatic production and quality, to compensate for decrease in aquatic production due to climate change impacts and limited coastal fishing - Increase the efficiency of fuel use, planting mangroves and grow seagrass to increase CO2 absorption CONCLUSION On the theoretical basis and methods to evaluate the economic impact of climate change on catch fisheries and solutions (1) Fish stocks in the world have been significantly reduced due to many different types of impacts, climate change exacerbates and has faster impacts directly and indirectly (2) The impacts of climate change on aquatic species are different in various regions of the world Fish stocks tend to decrease in tropical and subtropical waters (3) There are several to evaluate the economic impact of climate change on catch fisheries The thesis applies qualitative and quantitative methods, using production function model and partial 24 equilibrium analysis to assess the change of producer and consumer surpluses in fish market due to impacts of climate change (4) Countries need to have solutions to ensure that the catch fisheries are able to cope with and adapt to climate change, of which the most importance is to limit overexploitation On the assessment of the fishing situation since 1976 and forecasts of the economic impact of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam to 2025 and 2055 (5) Vietnam's catch fisheries are negatively affected by climate change at a serious level Temperature and rainfall have a large impact on fish stocks and fishing output in the short and long terms (6) In the long term, catch production decreases by 22.56% when temperature increases by 1oC and decreases by 0.60% when rainfall increases by 1% The increase in the number of storms does not significantly affect production and stocks (7) If there is no change in fish demand, both consumers and fishers will be damaged by climate change Consumers suffer more heavily than producers if demand increases Producers benefit from higher prices when supply falls The total social surplus will generally be reduced if the temperature rises due to climate change On fisheries orientation to 2055 and solutions fisheries until 2025 to cope with climate change impacts (8) Orientation to 2055, Vietnam needs to implement fisheries management towards ecological sustainability, which limits catch output through different management tools (9) By 2025, Vietnam should apply measures of state policies and solutions to organize the fishing activities to limit catch production and increase economic efficiency in the context of climate change 25 LIST OF WORKS PUBLISHED BY AUTHOR Nguyen Thi Vinh Ha, (2017) Valuing Economic Impact of Climate Change on Catch Fisheries in Vietnam In Proceedings of International Conference for Young Researchers in Economics and Business (ICYREB 2017), held at University of Economics, the University of Danang, Danang City, Vietnam ISBN 978-704-84-2640-8, pp 325-333 Nguyen Thi Vinh Ha, (2017) Impact of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam Proceedings of national scientific workshop "Sustainable development of marine economy: From policy strategies to current Vietnamese practices" Hanoi National University Publishing House ISBN 978-604-629882-3, p 125-138 Nguyen Thi Vinh Ha, (2017) Assessment of vulnerability due to landslide hazard to agricultural production in Ha Giang province Journal of Science VNU, Economics and Business, Vol 33, No 1, p 55-63 Nguyen Thi Vinh Ha, (2016) Concepts and frameworks for evaluating vulnerabilities of natural disasters in the world Assessing applicability in Vietnam Scientific Journal of Hanoi National University, Economics and Business, Vol 32, No 4, p 37-48 Nguyen Thi Vinh Ha, (2014) Assessing risks of landslide hazard on people and property in Bac Kan town Scientific Journal of Hanoi National University, Economics and Business, Vol 30, No 1, p 20-30 ... climate change in catch fisheries in Vietnam by 2025 and 2055 4.3.1 Catch fishing orientation in Vietnam to 2055 in climate change In the orientation to 2055, Vietnam needs to implement fisheries management... and regions It is expected that Vietnam''s catch fisheries will be affected by climate change However, studies on impacts of climate change on fisheries in Vietnam are quite few Therefore, it is... Vietnam to provide appropriate coping solutions Purpose and significance of the thesis research The thesis aims to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam,