Rationality from AI to zombies by eliezer yudkowsky

Rationality From AI to Zombies Eliezer Yudkowsky Eliezer Yudkowsky is a Research Fellow at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute Written by Eliezer Yudkowsky Published in 2015 Machine Intelligence Research Institute Berkeley 94704 United States of America intelligence.org Released under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 ISBN-10: 1-939311-15-2 ISBN-13: 978-1-939311-15-3 (EPUB) The Machine Intelligence Research Institute gratefully acknowledges the generous support of all those involved in the publication of this book, and the donors who support MIRI’s work in general Cover by Tim Woolley Contents Preface Biases: An Introduction Book I: Map and Territory A Predictably Wrong What Do I Mean By “Rationality”? Feeling Rational Why Truth? And What’s a Bias, Again? Availability Burdensome Details Planning Fallacy Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You Expecting Short Inferential Distances 10 The Lens That Sees Its Own Flaws B Fake Beliefs 11 Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences) 12 A Fable of Science and Politics 13 Belief in Belief 14 Bayesian Judo 15 Pretending to be Wise 16 Religion’s Claim to be Non-Disprovable 17 Professing and Cheering 18 Belief as Attire 19 Applause Lights C Noticing Confusion 20 Focus Your Uncertainty 21 What Is Evidence? 22 Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence 23 How Much Evidence Does It Take? 24 Einstein’s Arrogance 25 Occam’s Razor 26 Your Strength as a Rationalist 27 Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence 28 Conservation of Expected Evidence 29 Hindsight Devalues Science D Mysterious Answers 30 Fake Explanations 31 Guessing the Teacher’s Password 32 Science as Attire 33 Fake Causality 34 Semantic Stopsigns 35 Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions 36 The Futility of Emergence 37 Say Not “Complexity” 38 Positive Bias: Look into the Dark 39 Lawful Uncertainty 40 My Wild and Reckless Youth 41 Failing to Learn from History 42 Making History Available 43 Explain/Worship/Ignore? 44 “Science” as Curiosity-Stopper 45 Truly Part of You Interlude: The Simple Truth Book II: How to Actually Change Your Mind Rationality: An Introduction E Overly Convenient Excuses 46 The Proper Use of Humility 47 The Third Alternative 48 Lotteries: A Waste of Hope 49 New Improved Lottery 50 But There’s Still a Chance, Right? 51 The Fallacy of Gray 52 Absolute Authority 53 How to Convince Me That + = 54 Infinite Certainty 55 And Are Not Probabilities 56 Your Rationality Is My Business F Politics and Rationality 57 Politics is the Mind-Killer 58 Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided 59 The Scales of Justice, the Notebook of Rationality 60 Correspondence Bias 61 Are Your Enemies Innately Evil? 62 Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence 63 Argument Screens Off Authority 64 Hug the Query 65 Rationality and the English Language 66 Human Evil and Muddled Thinking G Against Rationalization 67 Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People 68 Update Yourself Incrementally 69 One Argument Against An Army 70 The Bottom Line 71 What Evidence Filtered Evidence? 72 Rationalization 73 A Rational Argument 74 Avoiding Your Belief’s Real Weak Points 75 Motivated Stopping and Motivated Continuation 76 Fake Justification 77 Is That Your True Rejection? 78 Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies 79 Of Lies and Black Swan Blowups 80 Dark Side Epistemology H Against Doublethink 81 Singlethink 82 Doublethink (Choosing to be Biased) 83 No, Really, I’ve Deceived Myself 84 Belief in Self-Deception 85 Moore’s Paradox 86 Don’t Believe You’ll Self-Deceive I Seeing with Fresh Eyes 87 Anchoring and Adjustment 88 Priming and Contamination 89 Do We Believe Everything We’re Told? 90 Cached Thoughts 91 The “Outside the Box” Box 92 Original Seeing 93 Stranger than History 94 The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence 95 The Virtue of Narrowness 96 How to Seem (and Be) Deep 97 We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think 98 Hold Off On Proposing Solutions 99 The Genetic Fallacy J Death Spirals 100 The Affect Heuristic 101 Evaluability (and Cheap Holiday Shopping) 102 Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, and Futurism 103 The Halo Effect 104 Superhero Bias 105 Mere Messiahs 106 Affective Death Spirals 107 Resist the Happy Death Spiral 108 Uncritical Supercriticality 109 Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs 110 When None Dare Urge Restraint 111 The Robbers Cave Experiment 112 Every Cause Wants to Be a Cult 113 Guardians of the Truth 114 Guardians of the Gene Pool 115 Guardians of Ayn Rand 116 Two Cult Koans 117 Asch’s Conformity Experiment 118 On Expressing Your Concerns 119 Lonely Dissent 120 Cultish Countercultishness K Letting Go 121 The Importance of Saying “Oops” 122 The Crackpot Offer 123 Just Lose Hope Already 124 The Proper Use of Doubt 125 You Can Face Reality 126 The Meditation on Curiosity 127 No One Can Exempt You From Rationality’s Laws 128 Leave a Line of Retreat 129 Crisis of Faith 130 The Ritual Book III: The Machine in the Ghost Minds: An Introduction Interlude: The Power of Intelligence L The Simple Math of Evolution 131 An Alien God 132 The Wonder of Evolution 133 Evolutions Are Stupid (But Work Anyway) 134 No Evolutions for Corporations or Nanodevices 135 Evolving to Extinction 136 The Tragedy of Group Selectionism 137 Fake Optimization Criteria 138 Adaptation-Executers, Not Fitness-Maximizers 139 Evolutionary Psychology 140 An Especially Elegant Evolutionary Psychology Experiment 141 Superstimuli and the Collapse of Western Civilization 142 Thou Art Godshatter M Fragile Purposes 143 Belief in Intelligence 144 Humans in Funny Suits 145 Optimization and the Intelligence Explosion 146 Ghosts in the Machine 147 Artificial Addition 148 Terminal Values and Instrumental Values 149 Leaky Generalizations 150 The Hidden Complexity of Wishes 151 Anthropomorphic Optimism 152 Lost Purposes N A Human’s Guide to Words 153 The Parable of the Dagger 154 The Parable of Hemlock 155 Words as Hidden Inferences 156 Extensions and Intensions 157 Similarity Clusters 158 Typicality and Asymmetrical Similarity 159 The Cluster Structure of Thingspace 160 Disguised Queries 161 Neural Categories 162 How An Algorithm Feels From Inside 163 Disputing Definitions 164 Feel the Meaning 165 The Argument from Common Usage 166 Empty Labels 167 Taboo Your Words 168 Replace the Symbol with the Substance 169 Fallacies of Compression 170 Categorizing Has Consequences 171 Sneaking in Connotations 172 Arguing “By Definition” 173 Where to Draw the Boundary? 174 Entropy, and Short Codes 175 Mutual Information, and Density in Thingspace 176 Superexponential Conceptspace, and Simple Words 177 Conditional Independence, and Naive Bayes 178 Words as Mental Paintbrush Handles 179 Variable Question Fallacies 180 37 Ways That Words Can Be Wrong Interlude: An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’s Theorem Book IV: Mere Reality The World: An Introduction O Lawful Truth 181 Universal Fire 182 Universal Law 183 Is Reality Ugly? 184 Beautiful Probability 185 Outside the Laboratory 186 The Second Law of Thermodynamics, and Engines of Cognition 187 Perpetual Motion Beliefs 188 Searching for Bayes-Structure P Reductionism 101 189 Dissolving the Question 190 Wrong Questions 191 Righting a Wrong Question 192 Mind Projection Fallacy 193 Probability is in the Mind 194 The Quotation is Not the Referent 195 Qualitatively Confused 196 Think Like Reality 197 Chaotic Inversion 198 Reductionism 199 Explaining vs Explaining Away 200 Fake Reductionism Bibliography Albert, David Z Quantum Mechanics and Experience Harvard University Press, 1994 Alexander, Scott “Why I Am Not Rene Descartes.” Slate Star Codex (blog) (2014) http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/27/why-i-am-not-rene-descartes/ Allais, Maurice “Le Comportement de l’Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l’Ecole Americaine.” Econometrica 21, no (1953): 503–546 DOI:10.2307/1907921 Ariely, Dan Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions HarperCollins, 2008 Asch, Solomon E “Studies of Independence and Conformity: A Minority of One Against a Unanimous Majority.” Psychological Monographs 70 (1956) Ashmore, Richard D., Vasantha Ramchandra, and Russell A Jones “Censorship as an Attitude Change Induction.” Paper presented at Eastern Psychological Association meeting (1971) Asimov, Isaac The Relativity of Wrong Oxford University Press, 1989 Baez, John “The Crackpot Index.” 1998 http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/crackpot.html Banks, Iain The Player of Games Orbit, 1989 Baratz, Daphna How Justified Is the “Obvious” Reaction? 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to Zombies collects hundreds of Yudkowsky s... ways to influence how biased we are If we want to improve, however, it’s not enough for us to pore over lists of cognitive biases The approach to debiasing in Rationality: From AI to Zombies is to