Release 2.0 Issue 2.0.6, December 2007 http://r2.oreilly.com “Open source changed the business of software irrevocably, in ways ranging from how we produce and license software to how we maintain and distribute it Although it’s still early on, we’re seeing strengthening signals that the same thing may happen as hardware opens up to open source In this issue of Release 2.0, we consider the state of the open source hardware products and business models that are emerging.” Jimmy Guterman, from The Hardware Revolution, page Release 2.0 Issue 2.0.6, December 2007 ISSN 1935-9446 Published six times a year by O’Reilly Media, Inc., 1005 Gravenstein Highway North, Sebastopol, CA 95472 http://r2.oreilly.com This newsletter covers the world of information technology and the Internet — and the business and societal issues they raise executive editor Tim O’Reilly tim@oreilly.com editor Jimmy Guterman jimmy@oreilly.com publisher Sara Winge sara@oreilly.com art director Mark Paglietti markp@oreilly.com copy editor Steven Sloan contributing writers Brady Forrest Jerry Michalski Sarah Milstein Peter Morville Nathan Torkington David Weinberger © 2007, O’Reilly Media, Inc All rights reserved No material in this publication may be reproduced without prior written permission; however, we gladly arrange for reprints, bulk orders, or site licenses Individual subscriptions cost $495 per year 70773 subscription information Release 2.0 PO Box 17046 North Hollywood, CA 91615-9588 http://r2service.oreilly.com customer service 1.800.889.8969 1.707.827.7019 r2@oreilly.com Contents 01: The Hardware Revolution By Jimmy Guterman New tools and technologies are about to change what hardware products and services businesses can offer 04: Open for Business By Jeanette Borzo 07: How Open Source Hardware Changes the Game It happened to software There are early signals that open source will disrupt hardware, too Afraid your plans will get stolen? But that’s the whole idea! By Jimmy Guterman 14: The Secrets Big Companies Should Know About Open Source Hardware Learn crucial lessons from the early entrants By Jeanette Borzo 16: The Number: A World of Social Networks By Jimmy Guterman 18: The Canon: How to Lie with Statistics and Within the Context of No Context The world is a lot bigger and more diverse than MySpace and Facebook would have you believe We celebrate two slender volumes that can change the way you look at business decisions By Jimmy Guterman 20: Calendar Jimmy Guterman is editor of Release 2.0 and editorial director of O’Reilly’s Radar group You can reach him at jimmy@oreilly.com The Hardware Revolution It’s the future of manufacturing—and early signs of it are here now You want to talk about open? Try this: As a trusted colleague suggested recently, putting the words “open,” “source,” and “hardware” next to one another in a sentence is a sure way to cure insomnia among businesspeople It’s the original 1981 IBM Personal Computer, running Microsoft’s MS-DOS (aka IBM PC-DOS, as fellow old-timers will no doubt remind me) I understand that Microsoft’s astonishing success was built on proprietary software, but it was also built on something else: providing a platform that others could build on with minimal pain Anyone who wanted to develop a program for MS-DOS or its successor Windows didn’t have to ask permission or pay a royalty for the privilege Similarly, on the hardware side, developers and manufacturers didn’t need to ask IBM (or Compaq, or Toshiba, etc.) if it was OK to develop a mouse, graphics board, modem, etc While the platforms certainly met the definition of proprietary, there was still plenty of room for independent developers to innovate and profit –> :1 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 The Hardware Revolution I’d better put this disclosure up high: The Chumby device was first seen at O’Reilly’s Foo Camp, and Chumby Industries is funded by O’Reilly AlphaTech Ventures, of which the company that publishes this newsletter is a partner And although I don’t know for sure, it’s possible that I was considered an “insider,” eligible to buy an early model, because I had an oreilly.com email address Consider any references to Chumby with that in mind— but I did pay the $179.95 for the device out of my own pocket And that’s only for developers who went through official channels The hacker mentality was adopted by early users of personal computers, who found, for example, that desoldering and rewiring two chips on a Kaypro’s motherboard could double the clock speed Indeed, it was easy to take apart these machines All you needed to get access to the motherboard was a screwdriver Try doing that to your iPhone You’ll void your warranty and maybe electrocute yourself I’m a sucker for new gadgets—especially ones that let you mess around with their insides—so I was delighted when the first production units of the Chumby, a small open source hardware computer, were available and I was given an “opportunity” to buy one It’s a return to that early-PC mentality It’s still way too early to see whether the little device will be a commercial success Like so many hardware platforms before it, the Chumby can be only as successful as the applications people write for and use on it At press time the device wasn’t even officially “out” yet, so we don’t know yet whether it will attract developers interested in taking it apart and doing clever and/or useful things with it But this tiny Linux-based computer is different from the great majority of hardware platforms before it—and nearly all today’s competing hardware platforms—in that the device itself was specifically conceived to be as open, as customizable, as hackable, as possible What does a Chumby do? Well, that’s up to you And that’s the promise of open source hardware The first production “latte” Chumby Open source disrupts not only how we build hardware but how we distribute it As this FedEx tracking page shows, the Chumby I ordered came straight from China to the U.S Open source gets hardware products out of China quickly and easily Let’s hope that approach will someday be true of other intellectual products and that it works so smoothly in both directions 2: Jimmy Guterman As a trusted colleague suggested recently, putting the words “open,” “source,” and “hardware” next to one another in a sentence is a sure way to cure insomnia among businesspeople Most executives have long given up on even trying to adjust the clock on their own VCRs (Hello, TiVo!) To them, the prospect of a device like Chumby that can be altered at whim is mere hobbyist nonsense Right now, they might have an argument But a fundamental article of faith at O’Reilly Media, one justified over and over, is that it’s hackers, innovators, and alpha geeks—in a word, hobbyists—who provide the most reliable early warning signals as to where technology and the business of technology are going As we explore in this issue of Release 2.0, it’s the promise of open source hardware that’s entrancing many of those emerging leaders It wasn’t that long ago that open source software was derided as the work of hobbyists Yet open source changed the business of software irrevocably Now open source software is the mainstream, the backbone of enterprise systems at countless businesses large and small Let’s not forget that many of the most important and leading-edge websites, such as Amazon and Google, have used open source software as the foundation for their proprietary advances And open is going in new places, even if in many of those places “open” will mean, at least at first, “ever-so-slightly-less-closed.” Verizon says it will open its network to outside (i.e., non-Verizon-sold) devices late next year, and early in 2008 Apple is scheduled to deliver a developers’ kit for its previously lockeddown-at-all-costs iPhone It’s unclear how truly open the Verizon network and Apple device will be, and both announcements are clearly defensive maneuvers, but they’re maneuvers in the right direction In this issue of Release 2.0, we look at the state of open source hardware and—more important—where it’s taking us and what companies can about it Also in this issue, we feature our usual departments “The Number” evaluates how the international social networking market looks much different from the U.S one, “The Canon” suggests two slender, provocative volumes that can change the way you see your business and your world, and “Calendar” highlights some of the technology and business events on our radar over the next few months The Radar team will be at plenty of them, even those we’re not organizing, and we hope to see you there And, as always, we’re interested in what you want to see in Release 2.0 Please write us with your ideas, kudos, and brickbats at jimmy@oreilly.com nn Another high-profile open device we on the O’Reilly Radar team have been watching closely is the one developed by One Laptop Per Child (http://laptop.org) Expect to see a review—of both the computer and its business—on the Radar blog, http://radar.oreilly com, shortly If this issue inspires you to consider purchasing some open source hardware, visit the Make: gift guide at http://blog.makezine com/archive/2007/12/open_source_ hardware_gift.html Believe us: There’s nothing like an LED Mini Menorah As enormous a trend as we believe open source hardware will become, it’s only a part of the broader story of how manufacturing itself is changing That’s a story we’ll document in future issues of Release 2.0 and in O’Reilly Radar reports :3 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 Open for Business Jeanette Borzo Open for Business Open source hardware may change how we think about hardware—and how we sell it Jeanette Borzo has been reporting on business and technology for nearly two decades for many publications, among them The Economist, The New York Times, and Wired She was the senior European reporter for WSJ.com, based in Paris by Jeanette Borzo Like so many new business ideas, this one arrived unexpectedly Four years ago, a software developer wanted a quick and easy way to track problems So he turned to an open source program, Bugzilla, that let a community of enthusiasts and staff track and repair any flaws in the Neuros MP3 player—without having to worry about licenses for commercial bug-tracking software Many have turned to open source this way, as a quick and dirty way of resolving a specific problem without the overhead and cost associated with proprietary systems But instead of turning a company toward open source software, this time it led to open source hardware At the end of 2003, Joe Born spun Neuros Technology out of its parent company Digital Innovations “I remember seeing [what was happening with Bugzilla] and saying ‘What’s going on?’” says Born, Neuros’s founder and CEO “It was kind of shocking.” Shock grew to enthusiasm, though, as Born realized that he got all those bug fixes without having to hire new developers, buy bug-reporting software, or even conduct market research Members of the community not only let Neuros know they wanted a music player that would sync with plenty of different computers, but they also helped to build it By the time the player hit the market, its features extended beyond what the company would or could have done on its own The Neuros was no iPhone when it came to commercial success, but it would have been nowhere without those additional features Neuros didn’t set out to be an open source hardware company, but it suddenly found itself expanding its open source software experience into its hardware In less than a year, the firm had also posted the player’s hardware schematics online Neuros’ story is interesting—but not unique In the technology industry’s backrooms, large and small companies based around the globe are having similar experiences as they transfer open source software principles and approaches to the emerging trend of open source hardware A hardware device is open source if all the elements necessary to modify or completely recreate it from scratch—schematics, diagrams, measurements and the like— are openly available to all interested parties Open source hardware offers many potential advantages—and they’re not limited to technology Open source hardware can facilitate good public relations and a quicker and less-expensive alternative to focus groups Encouraging customers to design and modify one’s products can also help build customer loyalty while expanding market reach when customers or partners modify a product to suit a sector that the company hadn’t previously courted Device enthusiasts often far outnumber a company’s development team, meaning that developing 4: hardware using an open source framework can create better products more quickly And, finally, the move toward open source hardware may be simply unavoidable—an unstoppable trend companies wanting to remain competitive will have to consider Increasingly, buying a hardware product that isn’t open source will be like buying a new car with the hood welded shut, says Chris Bergeron, founder of Dashwerks Even if owners never look under the hood, they still want to be sure they can if they need to, he says And yet, isn’t the thought of exposing everything needed to build a product completely counterintuitive to long-held notions of trade secrets—and the corporate profits that they have yielded year after year? Certainly, there is no denying that the challenges of open source hardware are at least as numerous as the benefits Companies that adopt open source hardware have to learn how to give up some control, tackle the tricky issues of warranties, patents, and the other legal ramifications of open systems; not get sidetracked from a blockbuster product by enthusiasts’ minute (and unending) product demands; and deal with the vulnerable position of corporate transparency that open source hardware demands Neuros and others were delighted that Bugzilla was “free,” but that’s “free” as in “free speech” and not “free” as in “free ride.” Still, groups stretching from international projects to startups to Fortune 100 companies are finding that the promise of open source hardware can outweigh such challenges And in addition to companies that have wholeheartedly adopted open source hardware principals, even more companies that sell proprietary products—such as TiVo, Linksys (now part of Cisco), and Nokia—are borrowing some elements of the trend “As companies find they can build products faster with open source, natural evolution dictates” that they will turn to open source hardware, says Peter Semmelhack, chief executive officer and founder of New York-based open source hardware startup Bug Labs In today’s competitive market, “it is very hard to keep up with the mass of humanity that is innovating,” Neuros’ Born says “If you’re not allowing experimentation on your hardware, you’re not going to keep up.” Buying a product that isn’t open source will be like buying a new car with the hood welded shut A spirit of sharing and collaborating So what exactly is open source hardware? While its definition is still evolving, it naturally builds on the principles of open source software in which users can access and change a software program and then redistribute the modified code “The spirit of open source hardware is one of sharing and collaborating,” says Semmelhack :5 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 Open for Business The Elements of Open Source Hardware Just as software programmers post their code online, those in the open source hardware movement post parts lists, mechanical diagrams, circuit diagrams that explain electronic circuitry, and layout diagrams that show where parts get placed The device’s software is also included, such as the source code for a device’s microprocessor or an application programming interface (API) that reveals how other applications can interact with the device “What we mean by open source hardware is that we want people to get a product and be able to whatever they want—solder new devices on to it or whatever,” adds Semmelhack Open source hardware is a riff off of open source software, but it can be a lot more challenging than its software counterpart Posting software online and getting immediate input from a community can be much more straightforward, for example, than posting designs for logic boards that people must build and test before providing feedback “Open source hardware is not immediately usable like open source software,” says David Yen, executive vice president of microelectronics at Sun Microsystems Plus, if semiconductors are involved, results may not always be reproducible even if the chip specs are 100 percent open, he says, because the results can be “foundry dependent.” It’s also important to note that, as Larry Wall said, in a different context, of his Perl programming language, “There is more than one way to it.” Open source hardware does not have to be an all-or-nothing proposition Many companies are adopting just some elements of the standard definition—and still claiming benefits “While it’s not technically ‘open source’ in the same sense that term is used in software, since 2005 all of iRobot’s current Roomba products ship with what we call the Roomba Open Interface,” says John Billington, a product manager iRobot, the maker of the Roomba vacuum robot “The Roomba Open Interface is an electronic and software interface that allows users to control Roomba’s motors, and control and monitor Roomba’s sensors It lets you create your own behaviors with Roomba and encourages people to modify Roomba and create their own robots using Roomba as a base.” According to Make: (http://blog.makezine com/archive/2007/04/open_source_ hardware_what.html), the essential elements of open source hardware are: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Hardware (mechanical diagrams) Schematics and circuit diagrams Parts list Layout diagrams Core/firmware Software/API If it doesn’t have all that, it’s not true open source hardware Hack Your Vac The hardware schematics for Roomba’s robots may not be online, but the company’s open interface to its hardware has let users modify the vacuum robots For some entertaining and thought-provoking examples of what some hobbyists have done with these robots, see http://www.instructables.com/id/How-tomake-a-Robo-Bellhop/ http://www.instructables.com/id/iRobotCreate-a-WiFi-Optimizer/ http://www.instructables.com/id/eyeRobot The-Robotic-White-Cane/ http://www.instructables.com/id/How-to-makean-autonomous-basketball-playing-robot/ 6: Jeanette Borzo The seeds of open source hardware As with so many cutting-edge trends, the roots of open source hardware go far back While open source hardware has only lately gathered enough momentum to be identified as a trend, many see its roots stretching back decades Many products—among them Apple Computer’s Apple II computers—used to ship How Open Source Changes Manufacturing by Jimmy Guterman A colleague in the appliance business notes that trade shows are particularly scary for the company he represents Half a decade ago, he says, rival manufacturers would take photographs of about-to-be-unveiled new products as they were set up on the exhibition floor the day before the show By the final day of the conference, he recalls, demonstration units of copycat products by the rival manufacturers would be on display In response, the group running the show prevented rivals from seeing other companies’ offerings until the show opened to the public Yet, thanks to faster sampling and replication methods, copycat units are still on the show floor by the last day This is what old-school appliance makers fear: That their newest designs, developed in secret, will be swiped the moment they’re available for all to see What old-school appliance makers fear is precisely the problem solved by open source hardware But that’s precisely the problem circumvented by open source hardware makers: It recognizes that, in today’s world of speedly replication, hardware has become a commodity (Design isn’t, though, which is a big reason why you own an iPhone rather than similar-shaped, less expensive, and far more clumsy devices.) Indeed, the whole idea of a product like Chumby (which is looking at advertising and elsewhere as potential business models) is to get cloned Rather than a sign of failure, being cloned would be evidence of the Chumby’s success (and would likely lead to a faster path to the next generation of Chumby) The business model for Chumby isn’t in selling the devices, but in selling the services that the device will enable The more manufacturers the better When you look at the clones of appliances and traditional electronics, it’s clear that the features of the cloned items are, for the most, either the same or less than what was in the original Nothing is extended, and extensibility is a key element of so many open source projects: someone thought something important was missing, so he or she added it Many hardware designers are shocked (either positively or negatively) when they discover how a device intended to be used for one purpose turns out to have many unexpected uses Tim O’Reilly suggests we think of open source hardware “as a set of reusable building blocks,” so the most successful projects turn out to be the ones that are most extensible Extensibility is also what leads to community, without which open source undertakings tend to be doomed Chumby and more traditional hardware makers may be in different businesses, but the same thing will happen to both of them: if the product is good and successful, it will be cloned—and quickly Several years ago, a member of the Radar team heard from a handset exec that new phone designs were cloned within six weeks; that’s got to be happening much faster now So why not build a product that takes advantage of what’s going to happen anyway? For the companies we cover in this issue of Release 2.0, open source isn’t about merely tinkering with hardware It’s about tinkering with business models, too :7 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 Some open source hardware kits may look and feel like a throwback to the DIY toys of youth, but Adafruit and others are showing that these parts can be combined to make products worth selling It’s not just for hobbyists “People want to modify their hardware products because they want to express themselves through the products.” Open for Business Jeanette Borzo with hardware diagrams As Born notes, “Even Sony products came with schematics through to the ‘80s.” As Jimmy Guterman notes in the previous article, even proprietary hardware products can include sundry elements of openness for developers and users Despite the current reliance on locked-down communications systems (like those owned and run by the incumbent mobile-phone carriers), the pendulum may be starting to swing in the other direction “When I was a kid, you would buy a television and you would always receive the blueprints,” remembers Benoit Schillings, chief technology officer at the open source software company Trolltech in Oslo “You can see things changing back now.” Many forces have combined to accelerate that change, such as a rise of companies that making it easier for consumers to indulge their do-it-yourself instincts New York’s Adafruit Industries, for example, sells kits and parts meant to make it easy even for beginners to build their own electronics, such as bike lights, music players and MIDI-controlled synthesizers O’Reilly’s Make: and Craft, and websites such as Instructables.com (disclosure: Instructables is funded by O’Reilly AlphaTech Ventures), meanwhile, provide stepby-step instructions for creating things The increasing availability of industrial equipment such as laser cutters also makes it simpler to replicate device parts, notes Eric J Wilhelm, chief executive officer and founder at Instructables, adding, “This will help push along open source hardware.” Eventually, Wilhelm expects places such as Kinko’s to make laser cutters available to the general public, much like the way they sell time on high-end printers today Wilhelm’s future may have arrived already TechShop (http://techshop.ws)—a drop-in workshop that opened in Menlo Park last year with classes in how to weld, lathe, use a milling machine, or machine embroidery—bills itself as “Kinko’s for geeks.” Open source hardware dovetails nicely with the personalization and customization trends that are also sweeping business sectors today “People want to modify their hardware products because they want to express themselves through the products,” says Wilhelm Making money now on a long-term trend So while open source hardware is an emerging trend, Semmelhack sees it as a profitable way to get consumers more of the specific products they want now “That long tail of devices can exist with open source,” he says A growing num- 8: ber of experimental and commercial projects seem to agree, both at companies large and small, in the U.S and abroad “It’s like tidal pools…here and there around the globe,” says Tom Igoe, who teaches in the interactive telecommunications program at New York University and is one of five key players—spread across Europe, Asia and the U.S.—behind the Arduino (http://www.arduino.cc/), an open source electronics prototyping platform Artists, designers, hobbyists and others have already bought 13,000 Arduino boards, using them, for example, to make devices that lets plants “call” their owner when they need water; that let people in wheelchairs control video cameras; and that let snowboarders record their motion Open source hardware projects are popping up around the globe The Open Source Quattrocopter (http://www.opensourcequadrocopter.de/) and Paparazzi (http://www.recherche.enac.fr//paparazzi/wiki/index.php/Main_Page) projects are two separate undertakings that are winning participation from around Europe to create remote-controlled helicopters Files and schematics for both projects are available freely online Many such open source hardware projects are inspired by a desire to make devices more affordable, either for people in developing countries or for hobbyists everywhere OpenEEG (http://sourceforge.net/projects/openeeg), for example, is trying to make EEG machines (which measure electrical activity in different parts of the brain) more widely available Commercial EEG devices are generally too expensive to be tools or toys for hobbyists, according to OpenEEG Simputer Trust (http://simputer.org/), a non-profit in Bangalore, is meanwhile building the Simputer, a low-cost handheld device intended to “benefit of the weaker sections of society.” It’s commercially available now only in India And the One Laptop Per Child project (http://laptop.org) is only the most high-profile attempt to use the most open methods to attract the largest audience on the other side of the digital divide Similar motives have inspired one of the best-known open source hardware projects—the RepRap (http://reprap.org), the Replicating Rapid-prototyper This three-dimensional printer creates 3D objects and device pieces and should soon be capable of reproducing itself, thanks to its ability to create the very parts—in plastic, ceramic, or metal—that make up the printer Led by Adrian Bowyer, of the Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Bath, the workin-progress is documented online and could have implications for the developing world by significantly reducing the cost of device production –> What can the Ardiuino do? Whatever a programmer can convince it to The Simputer harnesses open source hardware to deliver computing to the unserved masses, starting in India With systems like the RepRap, inexpensive 3D replication may move out of the lab Our siblings at Make: have plenty of fascinating material on RepRap, from the hobbyist perspective Indeed, Make: is a great repository for open source hardware information Start here: http://blog.makezine com/archive/2007/07/open_source_ hardware_slid.html :9 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 Open for Business Read more about Dash’s appearance at the Web 2.0 Summit at http://radar.oreilly.com/ archives/2007/10/dash_web2summit_ openmoko.html As Tim O’Reilly writes, “At bottom, the Dash is a PHONE, and that tells us something very interesting about the future of the phone, with more and more devices with phone functionality that don’t actually look or act like phones It’s also a full Linux computer Let your imagination be the guide.” It’s not just do-gooders and academics running open source projects There are many new commercial open source hardware startups Jimmy Guterman discussed Chumby in his preceding article and the company (http://chumby com) expects to release its Wi-Fi enabled content delivery device this month All of Chumby’s source code, schematics, board layouts, bill of materials, flat patterns, and 3D CAD databases of the device’s plastic pieces have been made available Bug Labs has a small team working on a modular consumer-electronics platform that it describes as “Legos meets Web services and open APIs.” Consumers can use it, for example, to build a mobile-blogging device or a home-automation system Neuros makes completely open audio and video devices such as the Neuros OSD, for digitally storing DVDs and videotapes while Taipei-based OpenMoko is working on an open source phone platform that developers can use to make the phones of their dreams Smart businesses are taking this seriously: Dash (http://www.dash.net), a cutting-edge navigation system that’s also built on OpenMoko (it’s a great example of how some folks can use a phone OS to build something other than a phone), is funded by no less than Kleiner Perkins Sun Microsystems, which eventually let its Java programming language go open after years of incremental measures, is letting some of its hardware go free, too: OpenSPARC T2 is the open source version of the UltraSPARC T2 processor, which Sun announced in August The T2 chip follows on the OpenSPARC T1, which Sun open sourced in March last year “The OpenSPARC technology is licensed under GPL V2,” explains a Sun spokesman “Once a company plans to distribute the code, they have to make their source code open and publish it So there is no licensing fee [but] the companies contribute back to the community.” Even Apple, still deep in all-out war with unapproved iPhone hackers, now plans to release a software development kit TiVo and Linksys both make devices that run on open source software, with Linksys posting the source code files for many devices on its site Nokia, meanwhile, released a tablet computer in 2005 powered by Linux, while ads for its new N95 boast that “phones should be open to anything.” (The phone isn’t open, but the marketing campaign is.) Motorola’s MOTOROKR phone also runs on Linux and Sony lets users install alternate operating systems on the Playstation gaming computer While such devices may not qualify as full-blown examples of open source hardware, they point to a growing desire on the part of global corporations to at least use the language of openness, which sometimes precedes the real thing The proposed Neuros open source phone, built on the OpenMoko platform 10 : Jeanette Borzo Open products: better…and seen as better Public perception tops the list of reasons why some companies say they are taking an open source hardware approach to their products “We view this strategy as very customer centric,” says iRobot’s Billington “As it generates a lot of goodwill and publicity, we benefit from it.” Such intangibles can lead to measurable results: Once a community gets interested in a customizable product, some firms find they spend a lot less on product promotion, for example “It’s like free marketing,” adds Mitch Altman, president and chief technology officer at Cornfield Electronics, the San Francisco maker of TV-B-Gone, a universal device for turning off televisions (even when they don’t belong to you) “So many people have hacked [the TVB-Gone] to such cool things—it has helped my sales.” (Also in the spirit of TV-B-Gone, but much less legal, is the open source mobile phone jammer, many versions of which exist in the field.) Some claim that open source hardware can also help develop better products, tested by infinitely more developers than any single company will ever have available in-house “We innovate faster and execute better with open source,” says Sun’s Yen “The amount of talent outside of Sun is bigger than what we have inside of Sun They provide feedback to us and we are all ears.” Some such as Sun also see open source hardware as a way to enter new markets Developers around the world are using Sun’s open source chip designs to take Sun products into markets where Sun, previously, was not a player—such as low-power-consumption chips and embedded devices The Italian-British company Simply RISC, for example, has a product called S1 Core, which is a cut-down version of the OpenSPARC T1 processor for devices such as PDAs, set-top boxes and digital cameras—none of which were ever part of Sun’s core market The Shanghai-based Polaris Microelectronics, meanwhile, is using OpenSPARC for high-performance, low-power microprocessors for telecom equipment, thin clients, and handhelds “These are all single core implementations of our chip,” says Yen “The chip will be cheaper and consume less power [With open source hardware] you enable people to propagate your product.” “If your goal is to create the world’s most innovative product,” summarizes Andrew “bunnie” Huang, co-founder and vice president of hardware at Chumby, “it helps you to open it.” –> “We innovate faster and execute better with open source.” : 11 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 Open for Business Executives have to stop thinking that giving away information is giving away business The center of the open source hardware world: China 12 : Jeanette Borzo Because open source hardware in its current incarnation is quite new, it carries with it a host of unknowns—challenges that will have solutions eventually but today are not easily solved “Hardware is a minefield of patent issues,” says Huang “The legal aspects [of open source hardware] haven’t been tested yet.” And while many think that inexpensive manufacturing opportunities in China should make open source hardware quite appealing, some note that working with Chinese partners today often requires bulk that open source hardware companies may not have “You can’t get their attention without hundreds of thousands of orders,” says Semmelhack Liam Casey, the Shenzhen-based chief executive officer and founder of PCH International, counters “there are plenty of factories here—but you have to focus on building a relationship with a factory.” Regardless of the availability of manufacturing, China’s intellectual-property issues are well documented, but they’re not as important to non-proprietary manufacturers With so much of a company’s product approach open and exposed, “The eternal fear is ‘Isn’t China going to steal it from me and run with it?’” says Arduino’s Igoe But many of those already involved in open source hardware think such fears are misguided If an open source hardware company is small, for example, protecting hardware designs with patents can be useless anyway, if the company doesn’t have the money to enforce those patents, Igoe says “Consumers buy brands,” adds Casey, whose supply-chain management firm caters to technology and electronics companies “How can you compete with China? Build a brand Focus on design, marketing and sales—and not on protecting some piece of hardware that people can copy anyway.” To be sure, the value of an open source hardware company may not be in its nuts and bolts but in its assembly-line smarts (building devices in the most efficient and inexpensive manner) or in the services that accompany its hardware products, notes Chumby’s Huang Open source hardware startups may take a while to transition from hardware companies to services companies, but countless large firms—such as TiVo—have already shown the potential upside of making more from services than from boxes Chumby, for now, is counting on advertising And think beyond standard tech tinkering Rather than selling tractors, for example, a tractor company could sell a tractor service—a vehicle service including fuel, upkeep, repairs, delivery, and pickup—to a mining company that would prefer to focus on mining instead of tractor upkeep Fees for subscriptions and services have sustained companies such as Red Hat and MySQL for years For the makers of open source hardware, a services approach can insulate against any potential sting of openly publishing hardware diagrams—if a company’s core moneymaker is services, product knockoffs will not damage the company’s core revenue Indeed, such copycat products would fuel new business for those core services With open source hardware, “You feel you are giving up some of your value,” acknowledges Sun’s Yen “But that is the old-school thinking In this new era, we will be compensated by volume and adoption.” Because of its open source hardware approach, Sun does have to move faster, Yen admits, but adds, “It will drive us harder—but that is a good drive, to make sure we continue to deliver value to the market.” When that value is apparent, Instructables’ Wilhelm maintains, open source hardware “will change the world…If a company does open itself up, it could get a lot more people working on its products A lot of ideas would bubble to the top.” nn “You feel like you’re giving up some of your value, but that’s old-school thinking.” : 13 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 The Secrets Big Companies Should Know About Open-Source Hardware Jeanette Borzo The Secrets Big Companies Should Know About Open Source Hardware by Jeanette Borzo Have a tightly defined product concept before you open up to a community Leverage your customer’s inner developer Anyone who has followed open source software knows it’s not only about volunteer developers But enthusiasts may very well become some of your best product designers, so don’t underestimate their importance As Eric Von Hippel, professor of management at the MIT Sloan School, wrote about the kitesurfing market in Democratizing Innovation, “the collective product-design and testing work of a user innovation community has clearly become superior in both quality and quantity relative to the levels of in-house development effort that manufacturers of kitesurfing equipment can justify.” Discover your users Then put them to work Developing a community need not be more complicated than finding folks who complain about your current products and getting them involved “Find the users who want to change your stuff around and give them the tools to that,” suggests Eric J Wilhelm, chief executive officer and founder of Instructables Share the wealth If someone in your community develops an improvement that you want to roll into your commercial product, be sure that person gets a cut “We should make sure they’re making money and we’re making money in order for it to work,” says Andrew “bunnie” Huang, co-founder and vice president of hardware at Chumby Industries Always work with a strong product concept With so many participants involved in your product’s development, it’s easy to get sidetracked down a blind feature alley So have a tightly defined product concept before you turn to your community “It’s important to have a strong and clear vision of what your product will be,” advises Joe Born, chief executive officer of Neuros “Or you could wind up with a mish-mash.” Sell services “Selling devices alone will not sustain the company,” says Michael Shiloh, a San Francisco-based evangelist in charge of developer relations for Taipei-based OpenMoko Chumby’s Huang agrees, saying “If you want to get scale in open source hardware, an essential part is to have a service,” adding that someone else may be able to out-manufacture you or the parts you produce, but providing a service takes more skill than brute low-cost force, effectively limiting the damage the competition can 14 : Don’t confuse hardware specs with brand value Many companies worry that opening their hardware will dilute their brand and undermine brand loyalty To counter this notion, Chumby’s Huang points to how many hackers have shared their modifications to their Apple iPods—but Apple still has a clear brand definition for its music players “Opening your schematics does not mean opening up your brand,” Huang says If you want a good manufacturing partner in China, get ready to travel Prepare to be open Really open Reluctant open source hardware companies may try to release only certain information about their hardware—but this approach probably won’t work “When you invite an open source community, every piece of code they don’t have access to is a real killer to the ability to grow your community,” says Neuros’ Born “Avoid the temptation to hang on to your proprietary thinking You need to be genuinely open.” Think smarter in China If a manufacturer doesn’t want to work with you because your volume is too small, offer to pay upfront “so there’s no reason for them to be nervous,” suggests Mitch Altman, president and chief technology officer at Cornfield Electronics Also, minimize the manufacturer’s reluctance to produce your custom products by making full use of any reference designs the manufacturer already has, recommends Benoit Schillings, chief technology officer at the open-source software company Trolltech “Take their reference device,” he says Don’t just look east Go there If you want a good manufacturing partner in China, get ready to travel “China is the most entrepreneurial place on earth,” says Liam Casey, the Shenzhen-based chief executive officer and founder of PCH International, a supply-chain management firm that caters to technology and electronics companies “You have to develop a process to deal with that You have to come to China You can’t it remotely.” And once you arrive, focus on your products details, such as design and technical details, rather than on setting up meetings with lawyers nn : 15 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 A World of Social Networks Jimmy Guterman The Number : A World of Social Networks Each issue we look at one statistic in business and technology and explore what is happening behind that number Outside of the U.S., it’s not all MySpace and Facebook by Jimmy Guterman See the O’Reilly Radar team’s Facebook Application Platform report at http://radar oreilly.com/research/reports/facebook.html It’s not news that social networks are huge But what seems to be news— particularly in North America—is that social networks are much more than MySpace and Facebook The U.S technology industry seems fascinated with the horse race between the News Corp.-owned MySpace and the now-Microsoftbacked Facebook and treats every rumor of funding, valuation, or incremental new feature as extremely important Granted, overstatement is a big part of being a technology business pundit: Om Malik recently likened Verizon’s possibly opening its phone network to Mikhail Gorbachev opening up the Soviet Union But the pronouncements of Mark Zuckerberg are being followed and parsed as if he were God or Steve Jobs We admit we’re a part of this—at press time, the O’Reilly Radar team had begun work on the third edition of our Facebook Application Platform report— but a quick look at the difference between U.S traffic of social network sites and international traffic suggests that the world of social networks doesn’t mirror how it looks from Silicon Valley: Site World Ranking (Alexa) U.S Ranking (Quantcast) Yahoo! Google MySpace Facebook Orkut Hi5 Friendster Craigslist Xanga Bebo LinkedIn Piczo 10 15 46 89 98 153 263 21 5,145 465 1,843 25 389 1,297 694 8,002 U.S Share of Site (Alexa) 47% 28% 3% 2% 3% 11% 10% 52% 4% (Please note that this and all data in this article is drawn from the work of Ben Lorica and Roger Magoulas of O’Reilly Radar’s research team While the absolute rankings given by Alexa may not be 100-percent accurate, sites highly ranked by Alexa are significant in a particular country.) Although MySpace keeps its #6 Quantcast ranking when Alexa tracks overseas use, many of the differences are dramatic Google’s Orkut is the #9 website 16 : in the world, but only #5,145 in the U.S Similarly, Hi5 is #10 worldwide, but 98 percent of its traffic is outside the U.S and stateside it’s only the #465 site As they offline, different cultures generate online social networks that meet different needs MySpace is the #5 site in Croatia and #6 in Australia— but #48 in Brazil and #89 in Japan Facebook is #1 in South Africa and Norway— but #35 in Germany And, in the other direction, Orkut is #41 in the U.S but #1 in Brazil and Paraguay Friendster is #73 in the U.S but the top-ranked site in the Philippines and Brunei Indeed, companies that aspire to world domination—as so many U.S technology companies do—need to look beyond MySpace and Facebook as they market, recruit, and learn in different strategic markets The O’Reilly Radar research came to three broad conclusions regarding which social networks were most popular where: As they offline, different cultures generate online social networks that meet different needs Friendster showed strength in Southeast Asia and some Gulf states Hi5 was most popular in Latin America, parts of Europe, and the Middle East ■ Orkut gained the highest ranks in Brazil, South Asia, and some Gulf states ■ ■ Companies looking to use social networks to understand people and trends throughout the world so via MySpace and Facebook alone at their own risk Why the big differences? Many of these social networks were created with small constituencies in mind (in Facebook’s case, students at one university) so the idiosyncrasies associated with such development may make more of a difference as the audience grows tremendously But plenty of popular software and services wind up being used in places its inventors never intended It’s possible that one of the reasons for so many differences in which sites are popular across nations and regions is that the current system forces each social network to create itself from scratch, walled-off from all other social networks It’s not like email, in which every address that follows a standard form can share with any other address in that standard form Right now the various containers can’t share much of anything, and that leads to the development of separate silos we see now in the social network space And that’s where Open Social, the most high-profile attempt to share data across social networks, comes in If a truly open API can flourish across social networks, letting particular applications or widgets share information using open standards, the walls could come down Then maybe we in the U.S will find out something about social networks that people in Brunei or Paraguay know already nn For more on Open Social, visit http://code google.com/apis/opensocial/ : 17 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 The Canon The Canon : How to Lie with Statistics Darrell Huff W.W Norton, 1954 Within the Context of No Context George W.S Trow Little, Brown, 1981 So much of what we have to read for business — an email, a report, an agenda — is extremely important right this moment, but will be less and less so as time passes In fast-moving industries, that may be inevitable But there are ideas that are meant to last for generations In each installment of “The Canon,” we consider books, articles, websites, or whatever else we can find that offers ideas and approaches that will last and are essential to mastering today’s technology business — and tomorrow’s Compact volumes that make sense of complex issues are particularly valuable in the current era of overflowing inboxes, physical and virtual 18 : Jimmy Guterman by Jimmy Guterman We started this year with a rave for Bill Moggridge’s instant classic Designing Interactions (see our review in issue 2.0.1), all 800 pages of it; we’re ending 2007 with a look at some time-proven classics that are much more slender In short, our readers might actually have time to read them Small books, reference and otherwise, have served as useful, portable inspiration Writers often are not far away from their copies of Strunk and White’s The Elements of Style or Rilke’s Letters to a Young Poet Businesspeople and optimists of all stripes could much worse than have Brenda Laurel’s 112-page Utopian Entrepreneur nearby Engineers and designers have a pair of tiny, elegant IDEO hardcovers worth perusing for inspiration, among them Andrew Burroughs’s Everyday Engineering: What Engineers See and Jane Fulton Suri’s Thoughtless Acts?: Observations on Intuitive Design The trend has a downside, of course There are series of books intended to appeal to self-identified “dummies” and “idiots,” and many elite business journals sell at-a-glance versions of their articles to time-pressed readers Someone somewhere may have tried to reduce Good to Great or Getting Things Done to haiku But compact volumes that make sense of complex issues are particularly valuable in the current era of overflowing inboxes, physical and virtual We suggest two of them this month Like many, I was first made aware of Darrell Huff’s How to Lie with Statistics long ago while in college trying to understand t-tests, ANOVAs, and the like The book is more than half a century old now, but it doesn’t feel dated At a time when chartjunk and data that appears to be based on analytics but is in fact based on a gut feeling seem to rule, Huff’s warnings and Irving Geis’s amusing line drawings ring truer than ever (Geis’s drawings are dated—note the smoking doctor and baby—but still entertaining.) Huff doesn’t want to direct readers to lie with statistics; rather, he is offering some common-sense tools for knowing that the stastistics you’re using to make a decision may be lying to you Like Edward Tufte’s spiritual ancestor, he alerts readers to the dangers of “The GeeWhiz Graph” and how information visualizations can yield incorrect decisions, regardless of whether the misleading visualization was come to by nefarious or incompetent means “Northing has been falsified—except for the impression it gives,” Huff notes of one graph: even the correct information can push you in the wrong direction if the context is off “Suppose you wish to win an argument, shock a reader, move him into action, sell him something For that, this chart lacks schmaltz.” How to Lie with Statistics is an enjoyable, worth-returning-toregularly, equation-free primer and reminder of how best to see beyond the schmaltz, not make a bad decision because the data “clearly” pointed to it, and make sense of what you see But what if simply making sense is no longer possible? In his 1980 essay “Within the Context of No Context,” originally published in The New Yorker and subsequently reissued as a short book, George W.S Trow saw his world as one in which technology rendered culture and the large world as, simply, silly And this was 27 years ago! Readers of a technology newsletter such as Release 2.0 might dismiss Trow as a Luddite, the Sven Bikerts of his generation, as he rips into the very idea of television, the dominant media of that moment, calling it “the force of no-history,” its popularity fueled by “the use of false love.” It’s not so different an argument of what today’s Web or social network naysayers are emitting But what sets Trow apart from knee-jerk cynics of the moment (think Andrew Keen and his Cult of the Amateur)—and what makes Within the Context of No Context an essential read for business and technology readers at this late date—is how he seeks not merely to say “TV makes us dumber,” an inarguable but mundane statement, but figure out why He evaluates the real-life existence that lurks behind buzzterms like “information overload” and what that overload does to us He says this all with a sharp style Trow balances the highbrow with slang, delivering aphorism after aphorism, each so compact and so all-encompassing that they deserve books or at least essays of their own Yet—let’s not forget this was written for the Wallace Shawn-era New Yorker—this is also a soulful, personal work in which Trow uses media invasion as a metaphor for all sorts of loss But, most of all, Trow wants to shine a light on elements of our culture so important that no one before him noticed He identifies the most important moment in the history of television as “the moment when a man named Richard Dawson, the ‘host’ of a program called Family Feud, asked contestants to guess what a poll of a hundred people had guessed would be the height of the average American woman Guess what they’ve guessed Guess what they’ve guessed the average is.” No facts, just guesses, like decisions made via bad data In the end, Trow and Huff are performing the same service: insisting we open our eyes and look beyond what we think is obvious and self-evident— but surely isn’t You should keep their books within easy reach nn : 19 Release 2.0.6 December 2007 Calendar Calendar T J Events Tim O’Reilly plans to attend Events Jimmy Guterman plans to attend A selection of significant public events over the next few months Lack of a symbol is no indication of lack of merit Please contact Jimmy (jimmy@guterman.com) to let us know about other events we should include January 7–10 Consumer Electronics Show (Las Vegas, NV) http://www.cesweb.org/ The megatradeshow, in the megacity Leave the subtlety at home January 14–18 Macworld (San Francisco, CA) Steve Jobs will introduce a new something We’re going to go out on a limb here and predict that he will suggest that the new something is good February 6–7 T February 11–13 J O’Reilly Money:Tech (New York, NY) http://conferences.oreillynet.com/money2008/ Paul Kedrosky and the O’Reilly Radar team will show you how to hack Wall Street T O’Reilly Tools of Change for Publishing (New York, NY) http://conferences.oreilly.com/toc Our second annual conference moves to the city that hosts much of what remains of Publishing 1.0 Come help them embrace the future February 27–March T J TED (Monterey, CA) http://www.ted.com Yes, the marquee event celebrating technology, entertainment, and design is long sold out There will be a $3,000 simulcast room in Aspen, too Have you signed up for the 2009 installment yet? March 3–6 T J O’Reilly Emerging Technology Conference (San Diego, CA) http://conferences.oreillynet.com/et2008/ How does technology help you perceive things that you never noticed before? Learn about everything from iPhone hacking to sex hacking March 3–4 T J Graphing Social Patterns (San Diego, CA) http://graphingsocial.com/ Explore the components of building and distributing applications for Facebook and other social networking platforms Then stay for ETech (see above) T Accenture Global Convergence Forum (Miami, FL) http://accenture.com Join other prominent leaders from the communications, technology, and media industries April 7–9 20 : April 22–25 T Web 2.0 Expo (San Francisco, CA) For those of you who find the October Web 2.0 Summit too intimate, spend four days at Moscone West with tens of thousands of your closest and most likeminded friends May 1–3 J The Nantucket Conference (Nantucket, MA) http://www.nantucketconference.com/ A group of investors, entrepreneurs, technologists, and executives head to an exclusive island, go off the record, and imagine the future May 12–14 T O’Reilly Where 2.0 (Burlingame, CA) http://en.oreilly.com/where2008/public/content/home If you’re interested in geo, this is the, er, place to go J D (Carlsbad, CA) http://www.allthingsd.com Last year Walt and Kara got Bill Gates and Steve Jobs to speak together Who will they pair up next year? June 23–24 T Velocity (Burlingame, CA) http://en.oreilly.com/velocity2008/public/content/home O’Reilly debuts a new conference dedicated to Web performance and operations Are you building at Internet scale? July 20–22 T Ubuntu Live (Portland, OR) Find out the latest about the most popular Linux distribution And while you’re in Portland… July 21–25 T O’Reilly Open Source Convention (Portland, OR) Join more than 2,500 open source developers, experts, and gurus May 27–29 T : 21 Release 2.0 Subscription Form Complete this form and join the other industry executives who rely on Release 2.0 to stay ahead of the headlines You can also subscribe online at http://r2.oreilly.com Your annual Release 2.0 subscription costs $495 per year, and includes both the print and electronic versions of six every-other-month issues, access to the complete Release 1.0 and Release 2.0 archives, a discount on attendance to O’Reilly conferences, and full access to our website, http://r2.oreilly.com name title company address city state zip country telephone fax email (personal email required for electronic access) url n My colleagues should read Release 2.0, too! Send me information about multiple copy subscriptions and electronic site licenses n check enclosed n charge my (check one) n american express n mastercard card number expiration date name and billing address n same as above n see below n visa cvs code name address city state zip country signature Please fax this form to 1.818.487.4501 or mail it to Release 2.0, P.O Box 17046, North Hollywood CA 91615-9588 Payment must be included with this form Your satisfaction is guaranteed or your money back If you have any questions, please call us at 1.800.889.8969 or 1.707.827.7019 or email us at r2@oreilly.com