Global warring

GLOBAL WARRING HOW ENVIRONMENTAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL CRISES WILL REDRAW THE WORLD MAP CLEO PASKAL GLOBAL WARRING This page intentionally left blank GLOBAL WARRING HOW ENVIRONMENTAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL CRISES WILL REDRAW THE WORLD MAP CLEO PASKAL GLOBAL WARRING Copyright © Cleo Paskal, 2010 All rights reserved First published in 2010 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States–a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010 Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries ISBN-13: 978-0-230-62181-7 Paskal, Cleo Global warring : how environmental, economic, and political crises will redraw the world map / Cleo Paskal p cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 0-230-62181-3 (alk paper) Geopolitics—Environmental aspects World politics—21st century—Environmental aspects I Title JC319.P325 2010 303.48’5—dc22 2009039709 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library Design by Letra Libre, Inc First edition: January 2010 10 Printed in the United States of America For my father, the great thinker and writer Tom Paskal Without him, this book would not have been possible (nor, coincidentally, would I) This page intentionally left blank CONTENTS Introduction: Been There, Done That, and All I Got Were These Lousy Extinctions PART ONE THE USS SIEVE: HOW ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IS DRILLING HOLES IN THE SHIP OF STATE The Coming Storm 25 PART TWO THE NEW GEOPOLITICAL ICEBERGS: OR, HOW THE NORTH WAS LOST Life on the No Longer Permanent Permafrost 65 The Global Economy: Waiting for the Ship to Come In 79 A Short History of Modern Geopolitics, as Seen from the Deck of a Ship The Great Cold Rush of ’08 85 105 PART THREE PRECIPITATING CHANGE IN ASIA AND BEYOND: HOW CHINA, INDIA, AND THE WEST ARE TRYING TO MAKE FRIENDS IN INTERESTING TIMES Today’s Weather: Intolerable with Periods of Uninhabitable 129 The Story So Far 151 Interesting Times, Narrowing Options 159 PART FOUR THE TURBULENT PACIFIC: HOW RISING SEA LEVELS COULD WASH AWAY WHOLE COUNTRIES AND SWAMP THE GLOBAL SHIP OF STATE Building a Geopolitical Ark 189 10 Drawing Lines in the Water 195 11 Fighting over Atlantis 217 Conclusion: Weathering Change 237 Acknowledgments 251 Notes 253 Index 273 INTRODUCTION BEEN THERE, D O N E T H A T, AND ALL I GOT WERE THESE LOUSY EXTINCTIONS “I can gather all the news I need on the weather report.” —Paul Simon1 THE WEATHER REPORT I am warm, dry, and, not coincidentally, inside Outside, a thin sheet of shatterproof glass away, it is monsoon Normally from this window I can see the graceful, glittering curve of Marine Drive, the elegant beachfront avenue where the residents of Mumbai go to remind themselves why they love their sprawling, crazy, overcrowded city Today all I can see is a grayish-black wall of wet The monsoon rampages through Mumbai like a drunken mob, breaking storefronts, ripping up roads, raining blows and blowing rains 266 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 GLOBAL WARRING Defense Science Board Task Force on Seabasing, Department of Defense, Washington, DC, August 2003 Ibid Ibid Ibid “MPs warn over US fighter jet deal,” BBC News December 8, 2006 “Blair’s Trident statement in full,” BBC News, December 4, 2006 The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, www.sectsco.org Sergei Blagov, “Russia sees SCO as potential energy cartel,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, December 5, 2006 Chris Xia, “Asia to pool financial reserves,” BBC News, May 5, 2007 “Venezuela to pull our of World Bank, IMF,” The Washington Times, May 1, 2007 “Chavez: Bush ‘devil’; U.S ‘on the way down,’” CNN.com, September 21, 2006 Qatar Foundation, http://qf.edu.qa Martin Walker, “Walkers world: India’s brain food,” United Press International, March 19, 2007 Tinku Ray, “India IT exodux from US ‘to rise,’” BBC News, May 15, 2007 James A Baker III and Lee H Hamilton, The Iraq Study Group Report, p 28, http://media.usip.org/reports/iraq_study_group_report.pdf Maggie Michael, “Arabs say report shows Bush’s failure,” Associated Press, December 7, 2006 Paul Richter, “Mideast allies near a state of panic,” Los Angeles Times, December 3, 2006 For more, see the Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, Official Government Edition, aka the 9–11 Commission Report, www.gpoaccess.gov/911/Index.html Baker and Hamilton, Iraq Study Group Report, p 61 Ibid., p 60 “Background Note: Qatar,” Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, U.S Department of State, October 2006, www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5437.htm Philip Shishkin, “In Putin’s backyard, democracy stirs—with U.S help,” The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2005 Nick Paton Walsh, “India flexes its muscles with first foreign military base,” The Guardian, April 26, 2006 “Defence Ties with Mongolia Expanded,” The Tribune (India), August 9, 2007 “PPP GDP 2005,” World Bank, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP_PPP.pdf, accessed November 17, 2006 An “international dollar” has the same purchasing power over GDP as a U.S dollar has in the United States R Swaminathan, “India-China relations in the emerging era,” paper no 2019, South Asian Analysis Group, Noida, India, November 9, 2006 Sawraj Singh, “India and China continue their march to Asia’s century,” www.indolink.com/printArticleS.php?id=1125 06050319 Park Song-wu, “China stirs history furor,” Korea Times, September 12, 2006 Thomas Fuller, “‘Sweatshop snoops’ take on China factories,” International Herald Tribune, September 15, 2006 Zhu Zhe, “Plagarism, fake research plaque academia,” China Daily, March 15, 2006 “Google limits China searches,” Seattle Times, January 26, 2006 “Cyber-dissident convicted on Yahoo! information is freed after four years,” Reporters Without Borders, November 9, 2006 Robert Spencer, Peter Foster, “Chinese ordered cover-up of tainted milk scandal” The Daily Telegraph, September 24, 2008 Robert Marquand, “Research fraud rampant in China,” The Christian Science Monitor, May 16, 2006 NOTES 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 267 China: Annual report 2006, Reporters without borders, www.rsf.org/IMG/pdf/Chinese _Report_2006–2.pdf “Cyber-dissident convicted on Yahoo! information is freed after four years,” Reporters Without Borders, November 9, 2006 “Xinhua: the world’s biggest propaganda agency,” Reporters Without Borders, September 30, 2005 “China province said to close more mines,” Washington Post, November 7, 2006 M D Nalapat, “Authoritarianism and growth,” Far Eastern Economic Review, January 16, 2003 Susan Jakes, “Beijing hoodwinks WHO inspectors,” Time, April 18, 2003 “Thousands flee as storm hits China,” CNN.com, July 20, 2005 Bao Daozu, “Typhoon pounds Fujian, forcing evacuation,” China Daily, September 2, 2005 “630,000 evacuated from S China provinces as Typhoon Chanchu approaches,” Xinhua, May 17, 2006 “Mighty storm buffets China,” BBC News Online, September 19, 2007 “Shanghai: Evacuated residents return home,” cctv.com, September 21, 2007 Howard W French, “China’s Muslims awake to nexus of needles and AIDS,” New York Times, November 12, 2006 “Drug trafficking: China arrests Pakistanis,” Times of India, November 13, 2006 China, episode 3: Shifting nature, BBC Two, June 27, 2006 Pan Yue, “Tipping point,” Times of India, December 2, 2006 “Visions of ecopolis,” The Economist, September 23, 2006 Frank Kane, “British to help China build ‘eco-cities,’” The Observer (London), November 6, 2005 “China wins quake lake “victory,”“ BBC News Online, June 10, 2008 M D Nalapat, “North Korea: a ‘proxy’ nuclear state?,” China Brief, The Jamestown Foundation, March 25, 2003 “Bush Says Trip Will Strengthen U.S.-India Strategic Partnership,” Office of the Press Secretary, the White House, February 24, 2006 Private conversation Ibid Interview with M D Nalapat, November 20, 2006 “India, China among top arms buyers: Study,” Times of India, June 10, 2008 “China has ‘endorsed’ Indo-US nuke deal: Pranab,” Times of India, November 27, 2006 Singh, “India and China continue their march.” “Energy-needs bring India, China closer,” Times of India, November 26, 2006 “Chinese PM’s visit to Bangladesh successful: report,” People’s Daily (China), April 11, 2005 “Joshi claims Maoists got arms from China; demands clarification from Situala, People’s Review (Kathmandu), July 6–12, 2006 “Check madrassa growth along UP-Nepal border,” Rediff.com, June 30, 2006 “Pakistan printing fake Indian currency—Times of India,” Forbes.com, September 18, 2006 The same sort of game can be seen in North Korea, a nation not usually known for its indigenous technical aptitude (apart from its China-sponsored nuclear program) Regardless, it is tagged as the source of nearly undetectable counterfeit “super notes” in U.S dollars Bill Gertz, “U.S accuses North Korea of $100 bill counterfeiting,” The Washington Times, October 12, 2005 Subodh Ghildiyal, “Chinese firms may be barred from port race,” Times of India, July 20, 2006 Sudha Ramachandran, “Good deals, but no nukes for Pakistan,” Asia Times, November 28, 2006 A B Mahapatra, “China: base strategy—China acquires a base in Maldives against India with some help from Pakistan,” News Insight (New Delhi), May 8, 2005, www dhivehiobserver.com/speicalreports/China-base-in-Maldives0705051.htm 268 65 66 67 68 69 GLOBAL WARRING Jehangir S Pocha, “Indo-US partnership and China,” Businessworld Magazine, March 13, 2006 Kathleen Hwang, “Pacific island nations eye China’s rise,” United Press International, March 27, 2006 M D Nalapat, “Capitulation!,” Organiser, October 1, 2006 Private conversation, 2008 M D Nalapat, “Hu can have it better,” Organiser, November 26, 2006 CHAPTER 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Randeep Ramesh, “Paradise almost lost: Maldives seek to buy a new homeland,” The Guardian, November 10, 2008 “Rising seas force Islanders to move inland, says UN,” ABC news online, December 6, 2005, www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200512/s1524422.htm Personally, I would have added “in modern times” as, undoubtedly over the millennia with the waxing and waning environmental change events, other communities have had to relocate as well But I quibble John Vidal, “Pacific Atlantis: First climate change refugees,” The Guardian, November 25, 2005 Alister Doyle, “Pacific Islanders move to escape global warming,” Reuters, December 6, 2005 For an updated list of disappearing islands, see: www.globalislands.net M L Parry et al, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications _ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg2_report_impacts_adaptation_and_vulnerability.htm Ian Sample, “Scientists forecast metre rise in sea levels this century,” The Guardian, March 24, 2006 Robert S Boyd, “Sea levels rising at faster rate,” Charlotte Observer (North Carolina), July 10, 2005 Parry et al, Climate Change 2007 Ibid Bob Holmes, “Ocean heat store makes climate change inevitable,” Newscientist.com, March 17, 2005 Parry et al, Climate Change 2007 “Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The scientific basis: Executive summary,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Environmental Programme and World Meteorological Office, 2001 “Potential impact of sea-level rise on Bangladesh,” UNEP, http://grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/3086.aspx Ibid Ibid “All about glaciers,” National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, 2007 Stefan Lovgren, “Warming to cause catastrophic rise in sea level?,” National Geographic News, April 26, 2004 “Greenland melt ‘speeding up,’” BBC News, August 11, 2006 Robert Roy Britt, “Runaway glacier may portend rising seas,” LiveScience, December 9, 2004 Jonathan Amos, “Greenland glaciers race to the ocean,” BBC News, December 8, 2005 Martin Mittelstaedt, Globe and Mail, February 17, 2006 Robert Lee Hotz, “Greenland’s chilling mystery,” Montreal Gazette, July 9, 2006 Paul Rincon, “Greenland ice swells ocean rise,” BBC News, February 16, 2006 Interview with Hon Tom Roper, UNFCCC, Montreal, December 5, 2005 It’s worth noting that the waves that hit the Maldives were only feet high C Gramling, “Still standing,” Science News, March 25, 2006 Richard Black, “‘Hope for coral’ as oceans warm,” BBC News, June 7, 2006 Paul Rincon, “Warming set to ‘devastate’ coral,” BBC News, May 15, 2006 NOTES 19 20 21 269 Carolyn Fry, “Acid oceans spell doom for coral,” BBC News, August 29, 2004 Black, “Hope for coral.” Rincon, “Warming set to ‘devastate’ coral.” Black, “Hope for coral.” “Tiny polyps gorge themselves to survive coral bleaching,” Research Communications, Ohio State University, April 26, 2006 Roger Harrabin, “A people dependent on coral,” BBC News, July 8, 2006 CHAPTER 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Interview with Jens Christian Justinussen, Montreal, November 10, 2006 Graham Norris, “Pawns in the game,” Pacific Magazine, May 2004 Michael Field, “Tackling China: Kiribati,” Islands Business, 2007, www.islandsbusiness com/islands_business/index_dynamic/containerNameToReplace=MiddleMiddle/focus ModuleID=4981/overideSkinName=issueArticle-full.tpl Mac William Bishop, “Kiribati plays the game,” Pacific Magazine, September 2004 Bishop, “Kiribati plays the game.” Rowan Callick, ‘Chinese storm in a Pacific teacup,’ Far Eastern Economic Review, December 4, 2003 Norris, “Pawns in the game.” Callick, “Chinese storm in a Pacific teacup.” Ibid Callick, “Chinese storm in a Pacific teacup.” “China, Vanuatu pledge to boost bilateral ties,” Xinhua English, January 18, 2005 Nicholas Zamiska and Jason Dean, “China and Taiwan spar over friends in small places,” Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2006 Michael Field, “China’s intriguing move.” Islands Business, 2007 “Tonga,” Bilateral Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, December 9, 2003 Robert Keith-Reid, “Oceania outlook 2002,” Pacific Magazine, January 2002 Norris, “Pawns in the Game.” “The annual report of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defence for the year 2000,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Tonga, 2001 “Tonga.” Field, “China’s intriguing move.” “MP calls for government to regulate number of Chinese workers in Tonga,” BBC Monitoring Asia—Pacific—Political, text of report by Radio New Zealand International, July 19, 2002 “Tonga council for promotion of peaceful reunification of China founded,” People’s Daily (China), January 19, 2004 “MP calls for government to regulate number of Chinese workers in Tonga.” “Tonga to expel race-hate victims,” The New Zealand Herald, November 22, 2001 Qin Jize, “Chinese citizens evacuated in Tonga,” China Daily, November 23, 2006 “Fiji: Chinese businessman wants action against Chinese triad gangs,” Pacific Magazine, May 11, 2005 Nick Squires, “British sun sets on Pacific as China waits in shadows,” The Telegraph, April 1, 2006 Field, “China’s intriguing moves.” Ibid Penny Spiller, “Riots highlight Chinese tensions,” BBC News, April 21, 2006 Ibid “Chinese nationals back home safe and sound,” Xinhua, April 25, 2006 “Chinese migrants in Algiers clash,” BBC News, August 4, 2009 “China eyes Pacific island airline startup,” Tok Blong Pasifik, spring 2005 270 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 GLOBAL WARRING “Nothing sinister in China support: Fiji,” The Age, March 28, 2008 “China funds $16m for Fiji projects,” Fijilive, April 18, 2008 Tom Bailey, Tarawa (Derby, CT: Monarch Americana, 1962) “US nuclear submarine runs aground,” BBC News, January 8, 2005 Robert D Kaplan, “How we would fight China,” The Atlantic Monthly, June 2005 Francis Harris, “Beijing secretly fires lasers to disable US satellites,” The Telegraph, September 26, 2006 Defense Science Board Task Force on Seabasing, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, Department of Defense, Washington, DC, August 2003 Ibid Ibid Scott Snyder, “The South China Sea dispute: prospects for preventative diplomacy,” Special Report No 18, United States Institute of Peace, August 1996 Ibid Michael W Studeman, “Dragon in the Shadows: Calculating China’s advances in the South China Sea,” Masters Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, March 1996, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA313771&Location=U2&doc =GetTRDoc.pdf Bill Gertz, “China sub stalked US fleet,” Washington Times, November 13, 2006 Interview with Professor Ron Crocombe, conducted by Jens Christian Justinussen, Cook Islands, April 8, 2004 Graham Norris, “Fishing and Diplomacy,” Pacific Magazine, May 2004 Interview with Professor Crocombe T Melton, R Peterson, A J Redd, N Saha, A S Sofro, J Martinson, and M Stoneking, “Polynesian genetic affinities with Southeast Asian populations as identified by mtDNA analysis,” American Journal of Human Genetics (August 1995): 403–414 “Blowing up paradise,” BBC Four, March 16, 2005 “UK set to cut back on embassies,” BBC News, December 15, 2004 “Veteran Polynesia leader ousted,” BBC News, February 19, 2005 “Six found dead after Tonga riots,” BBC News, November 17, 2006 Nelson Eustis, The King of Tonga (Adelaide: Hyde Park Press, 1997), p 289 “Convergence of interest brings India, Brazil together,” Hindustan Times, June 30, 2005 “India, Vietnam sign MoU for bilateral cooperation on security,” The Economic Times, March 24, 2008 “India offers help to S’pore in Malacca Straights,” Indo-Asian News Service, June 3, 2006 CHAPTER 11 Terry Pratchett, Jingo (London: Victor Gollancz, 1998) Leslie Allen, “Will Tuvalu disappear beneath the sea?,” Smithsonian 35, no (August 2004) Holley Ralston, Britta Horstmann, and Carina Holl, “Climate change challenges Tuvalu,” Germanwatch, Berlin, 2004 Interview with Masao Nakayama, UNFCCC, Montreal, November 28, 2005 For the text of the Montevideo Convention, see http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/intam03.asp Roland Huntford, Nansen (London: Abacus, 2001), p 634–635 “Convention relating to the status of refugees,” Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, United Nations, www.unhcr.org/refworld/pdfid/3be01b964.pdf Scott Snyder, “The South China Sea dispute: prospects for preventative diplomacy,” Special Report No 18, United States Institute of Peace, August 1996 NOTES 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 271 Lieutenant Michael Studeman, “Calculating China’s advances in the South China Sea,” Naval War College Review, Spring 1998 Ibid China has a habit of making rather grand declarations about what it owns In November 2006, it claimed the entire Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh—a position that was so outrageous, there was a very unusual mild climb down The strategy often works because, even if China knows it can’t win, it has pushed the bounds of the debate so far into the opposing camp that any subsequent “compromise” would otherwise be considered a rather big win for China “China calls for ‘compromises’ on Arunachal Pradesh,” The Hindu, November 16, 2006 Studeman, “Calculating China’s advances.” “South China Sea dispute.” Climate Change and Borders Workshop, Chatham House, London, June 30, 2006 “South China Sea dispute.” Paul Reynolds, “Paradise regained—for a few days,” BBC News, April 3, 2006 Scott Foster and Robert Windrem, “Tsunami spares US base in Diego Garcia,” NBC News, January 4, 2005 The Maldives-Lakshadweep-Chagos archipelago is composed entirely of low atolls, associated coralline structures, and sandy islands Many islands compose each ring-shaped atoll, and the highest islands reach only 15 feet above sea level The low level of these islands makes them very sensitive to sea level rise See www.worldwildlife.org/wildworld/ profiles/terrestrial/im/im0125_full.html Interview with Hon Tom Roper, UNFCCC, Montreal, December 2005 See www.un.org/Depts/los/index.htm See www.itlos.org “Climate change and borders.” This is the basis of many of the Arctic claims Art 15 of UNCLOS states that where the coasts of two states are opposite or adjacent to each other, neither of the two states is entitled, failing agreement between them to the contrary, to extend its territorial sea beyond the median line every point of which is equidistant from the nearest points on the baselines from which the breadth of the territorial seas of each of the two states is measured See www.un.org/Depts/los/convention _agreements/texts/unclos/closindx.htm Under Art 62.1(b) of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, changes to treaties can take place only if there is a fundamental change of circumstances that radically transforms the extent of the obligations to be performed under the treaty But boundary agreements are expressly excluded, so that once they are fixed, they are fixed for all time However, in the case of Cuba, there is scope for renegotiation because the bilateral agreement is renewed every two years See www.walter.gehr.net/wvkengl.html, accessed August 14, 2006 “Rice warns Pacific leaders over threat of ‘strongmen,’” Channel NewsAsia, May 8, 2007 “U.S Engagement in the Pacific Islands Region: 2007 Pacific Islands Conference of Leaders and Core Partners Meeting,” U.S State Department, Washington, DC, May 7, 2007 “Rice warns Pacific leaders.” “Taiwan cancels Pacific islands summit,” Radio Australia, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, October 6, 2008 Alexandra Harney, Demetri Sevastopulo, and Edward Alden, “Top Chinese general warns U.S over attack,” Financial Times, July 14, 2005 Interview with Professor Ron Crocombe, conducted by Jens Christian Justinussen, Cook Islands, April 8, 2004 Lawrence Schafer, “The cannon shot rule,” in Legal aspects of contemporary marine fisheries, Rhodes University, 1997 272 GLOBAL WARRING CONCLUSION The Comic Almanack with illustrations by George Cruikshank (London: Chatto and Windus, 1881), p 410 In the 1850s, the UK was coming out of the Little Ice Age and so, by comparison, the climate seemed exceptionally hot This section is adapted from: C Paskal, “Three R’s for surviving environmental change,” Chinadialogue.net, January 18, 2008, www.chinadialogue.net/homepage/show/single/en/ 1634-Three-R-s-for-surviving-environmental-change “India counts the costs of floods,” BBC News, August 2, 2005 Jonathan Watts, “China hit by strongest typhoon for half a century,” The Guardian, August 11, 2006 Mark Hertsgaard, “Adapt or die,” The Nation, May 7, 2007 Interview with Anthony Nyong, UNFCCC, Montreal, December 8, 2005 INDEX Aboriginal Canada, 121–2 Adams, John, 110 Afghanistan, 142, 155, 160–1, 166–8, 174, 177–8, 185, 207 See war in Afghanistan Africa, 20, 55, 81, 85–6, 95–6, 101–2, 107, 134–6, 149, 172, 175, 180–1, 185, 197, 199, 201–3, 208, 210, 226, 228, 243, 263n9 and China, 95–6, 101–2, 135– 6, 201–3, 210 and environmental change, 134–5 See Sudan agriculture, 53–4, 59, 73, 94–6, 143, 146, 259n20 See crops Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (Cairo), 164 Alaska, 29–30, 68–70, 72, 74, 99, 109, 113, 117 Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge, 99 albedo, 258n22 Aletsch glacier, 6–7 Algeria, 87, 134, 205 Algerian War, 87 Alps, 6, 70, 192 Amnesty International, 95 Andes, 70, 192 Antarctic, 117, 120, 192 archeology, 71 Arctic, 4, 19, 65–76, 83, 103, 106–10, 114–25, 132, 227 accelerated climate change, 68–9, 73–5 as global air conditioner, 68, 75 and “global governance,” 124– historical transformations of, 75–6 and infrastructure, 73, 108–9 natural resources, 75–6, 107– 8, 110 sea ice depletion, 4, 19, 65–70, 72–3, 76, 83, 106, 117, 132 security, 66, 114–15, 123 shipping routes, 109–10, 118– 19 See Northwest Passage; permafrost Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 68–9 Arctic Co-operation Agreement (1988), 115–16, 123 Arctic Council, 120, 124 Arctic and Environmental Unit of the Saami Council, 71–2 Arctic Ocean, 66, 69, 75 Arctic ungulates, 65 See caribou; muskox Argentina, 4, 53 The Art of War, 11, 151, 208 The Arthashastra, 151 Asia Times, 102 Asian Development Bank, 210 “Asian Tiger” economies, 162–3 Assyrians, 6, 130 Association of State Floodplain Managers, 43–4 Aswan Dam, 87 Atlantic Ocean, 209 atolls, 17, 190, 193–4, 196, 206, 225, 230, 271n18 Australia, 4, 7, 53, 59, 79–81, 133, 193, 203, 213–15, 220, 231 Axworthy, Lloyd, 119 Bahamas, 97, 115 Bainimarama, Frank, 205 Bangalore, 137 Bangladesh, 141–2, 153, 156–7, 166, 177, 182, 184, 191– 2, 227, 243, 247 Bangladesh War of Independence, 156–7 Bank of England, 88 Barrow, Alaska, 69–70 Bartlett, Dan, 46 Battle of Long Island, 12 Bay of Bengal, 138, 141 The Beagle, beetles, 53, 72 Beijing, China, 102, 118, 121, 144, 162, 168, 170–1, 173, 182, 185, 200–1, 204, 217, 233 See China Beijing Olympics (2008), 170–1 Bering Sea, 72 Bering Strait, 76, 83, 119–21, 258n19 Bhutan, 142 Blackwater, 33, 44–5 Blair, Tony, 155, 162 Blanco, Kathleen, 33 Board of Trade, Bolivia, 98, 115 boreal forests (North American), 72 BP, 109 Bradshaw, Michael, 99 Brazil, 4, 133 Brinkhuis, Henk, 75 British Columbia, Canada, 122 British Empire, 7, 12, 86, 103, 125, 152–3 See Great Britain; Suez Canal Brookings Institution, 99 Burkett, Virginia, 32 Bush, George W., 46, 163, 178– California, U.S., 40, 111, 133 Calvert, Lorne, 120–1 Cambodia, 95, 142, 221 Canada and agriculture, 53–4, 59 and the Arctic, 68, 247 freshwater scarcity, 59 and ice storms, 58 274 and icebreakers, 117–20 international relationships China, 120–3 Russia, 118–20, 122–3 Soviet Union, 93 Tonga, 201 U.S., 110–18, 120, 122–3, 207 military, 112–13 natural resources, 111, 122 and Northwest Passage, 20, 92, 114–18, 120, 125 oil sands, 59 shipping routes, 118–19 winter temperatures, 68–9 See Aboriginal Canada; Montreal; North American Ice Storm (1998); Quebec; U.S Northern Command Canadian Arctic, 76, 106, 113, 119 See Northwest Passage Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), 26 Canadian Rangers, 66–8, 77 “cannon shot” rule, 234–5 carbon dioxide, 74–5, 194 carbon emissions, 246 Caribbean, 90, 194, 197, 220 caribou, 65, 67, 71, 73, 76 Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea, 190 Cellucci, Paul, 110, 116 Central Asia, 17, 160, 167, 175, 178–9, 181 Centre of China’s Borderland History and Geography Research, 170 Chandeleur Islands (Gulf of Mexico), 35 Chavez, Hugo, 163 Chelsea Pump Station (New York), 39 Chennai, India, 97, 137 Chiang Kai-shek, 196 Chile, China, 136, 143–9 domestic authoritarianism, 172–4, 176 disaster preparedness, 242– 3, 244, 247–9 policies, 169–77, 203, 248 educational system, 169–70 fishing, 209 censorship, 169–73, 176–7 intelligence gathering, 171– journalism, 171–2, 176–7 See Xinhua mining industry, 172 one-child policy, 136, 144– 5, 148, 176 GLOBAL WARRING purchasing power parity, 168 unstable developments, 173–4 workplace violations, 170, 172 See Cultural Revolution; SARS environmental agriculture, 54, 94–6, 176 damages costs, 175 desalt plants, 145–6 dust storms, 144 extreme winter weather, 4, 133 and hydroelectricity, 58 infrastructure, 173–4 south-north canal, 144–7 poverty, 147–8 precipitation, 20 resource scarcity, 148 and social unrest, 148–9 “war” on environmental change, 176–7 and water, 18, 59, 142, 143– 5, 175–6 See Dongtan; Gobi desert; Himalayas; Sichuan earthquake; Southeast China typhoons foreign policy approach, 20, 82, 95, 101–2, 121–2, 134–5, 195–203, 210– 11, 233, 244 and developing countries, 82, 95, 101–2, 121–2, 134–5, 199, 201–2, 244 and infrastructure, 101–2 “influence through population,” 202–3 negotiation style, 101 geopolitics and Arctic, 125 and food basket deals, 54 global maritime reach of, 96–7 global supremacy, 101, 199, 208 global trade, 81–2 infrastructure, 102 intelligence gathering, 165– 6, 169169 and nationalism, 151–3 naval strength, 208–9 nuclear weapons, 233 and Pacific Ocean, 206–10 and Panama Canal, 93–4, 103, 210 and “partner” countries, 202 and proxy wars, 174–5 and South China Sea, 221– 4, 226 weaponry, 207 international relationships Aboriginal Canada, 121 Africa, 95–6, 101–2, 135–6, 201–3, 210 Australia, 213 Canada, 120–3 Fiji, 205–6 Hong Kong, 89, 168 India, 101, 149, 153–4, 158, 180–4, 247 Japan, 152 Pacific Islands, 20, 195–206, 210–15, 231–4 Pakistan, 155, 200 Russia, 16–18, 107, 118, 120, 160, 250 Samoa, 198, 201 Solomon Islands, 205 South America, 210 Sudan, 95, 101, 199–200 Taiwan, 153, 170, 176, 195– 9, 231–3 Tibet, 153, 170, 176, 181, 202–3 Tonga, 200–4, 231, 234 U.S., 102–3, 199, 206–10, 233 Vanuatu, 198–9, 201 Vietnam, 221–2, 231 long-term planning, 98, 103, 121, 146–7, 169, 199, 202, 209, 211, 233, 244 national history, 151–3, 169, 170 See Opium Wars nationalistic capitalism, 93– 103, 135, 148, 173, 177, 183, 185, 197, 233, 248 See Beijing; chokepoints; Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH); Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) China Space Tarawa Tracking and Control Station, 197 Chinese Academy of Sciences, 142 Chinese Communist Party (CCP), 94, 103, 136, 143–4, 146–7, 169, 172– 7, 203, 209 chokepoints, 20, 82–4, 90, 96–7, 103, 120, 182 Chou En-lai, 154 Church of England, Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, 119 Churchill Gateway Development Corp., 119 civilization, 130–1 Clarke, Richard, 45 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), 58 climate, 1–13 INDEX climate change See sea ice depletion; sea level rise; precipitation patterns; warming Climate change and London’s transportation systems, 51 Cline, Eric, 121 Cohen, William, 101, 260n32 Cold War, 12, 16–17, 93, 116, 119, 160–1,213 colonialism, 86, 90–1, 96, 101, 152–3, 159 Columbia, 90 commerce-security continuum, 93, 96–103, 110, 116– 17, 122–3, 213, 238 Connecticut, U.S., 38–40 consumption patterns, 14, 16, 53, 79–81, 93, 96 containerization, 80–1, 258n4 Convention of Constantinople, 86 coral reefs, 193–4 Crocombe, Ron, 200, 210–11, 233 crops, 3, 6, 7, 10, 51, 53–4, 73, 94–6, 119, 133–8, 140, 145–6, 148, 157–8, 191, 217–18, 243, 249, 259n20 rice, 94–5, 138 wheat, 53–4, 119, 137–8 Cuba, 228 Cultural Revolution, 152 Daewoo Logistics, 95 Dalai Lama, 154 dam building, 59, 138–9, 184 Darwin, Charles, Dauphin Island, Alabama, U.S., 43 Defense Intelligence Agency, 165 democracy, 95, 101, 137, 260n32 developing countries, 82, 86–7, 94–5, 101–2, 121–2, 134–5, 159, 199, 201–2, 243–4, 246–7 dictatorship, 101, 177, 260n32 Diego Garcia naval base, 225–6 disaster preparedness, 240–49 disaster prevention, 140 disease, 29, 51, 53, 72–3, 132, 134, 138–9, 173 Dixit, J N., 154 Dongtan, China, 175–6 Dowd, Matthew, 46 drought, 4, 5, 10, 29–30, 42, 50, 54, 57, 131–4, 137–8, 143, 173, 239 Egypt, 83, 85–90, 96, 129–30, 191 See Suez Canal Eisenhower, Dwight D., 87–9 El Niño, 3, 7, 12–13, 193 Électricité de France, 57 energy infrastructure, 55–61 English meteorologists (nineteenth century), 7– environmental change and agriculture, 53–4 corresponding problems of, 28–9 and energy, 55–61, 99–100 and existing vulnerabilities, 40–1, 61 and human suffering, 134 and infrastructure, 108–9, 245 as man-made, 14–15, 31–2, 130–2, 143–4 See Sumerians and poverty, 47–8 as a sustained attack, 61–2, 239–41, 238 See disaster preparedness “environmental impact assessments,” 56 environmental refugees, 9, 28–9, 34–5, 38, 44, 141, 156, 177, 218, 220, 230–1 erosion, 10–11, 29–30, 37–48, 69–70, 131, 133, 138, 147, 194 Ethiopia, 86 Europe and energy, 56–8, 99–100 and environment, 50–2, 53–4, 61–2, See European heat wave (2003); jellyfish plague (2006) geopolitics, 16, 20, 81–2, 159– 60, 209 See colonialism; commercesecurity continuum; European Union European heat wave (2003), 50, 53, 57, 71 European Union, 16, 61–2, 89, 99, 123–5, 159, 225, 247–8 exclusive economic zone (EEZ), 224–7, 230 extreme weather, 4, 13, 15, 36, 50, 56–7, 133–4, 184, 237 See drought; flooding; hurricanes; ice storms; monsoon East India Company, 153 East Pakistan, 153, 156 The Economist, 47–8, 102 Eden, Sir Anthony, 85, 87–9 famines, 9, 131, 134, 146, 154, 248 Fathers of Canadian Confederation, 111 275 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 34 Federated States of Micronesia, 234 Fertile Crescent, 130–2 Fiji, 194, 201–5, 232 Finland, 68, 72 First War of Independence (India) (1857), 153 FitzRoy, Robert, 7–8 Fjellheim, Rune, 71–3 “flags of convenience,” 115–16 Flood and Coastal Defense, 52–3 flooding See Hurricane Katrina; London; U.S coasts; sea level rise; Surat flooding Florida, 30–1, 37–8, 46, 111, 192, 228 See Miami Food and Agriculture Organization, 210 forecasting, 5–11, 16 See Hadley Centre France, 6–7, 16, 50, 56–7, 85, 87–9, 91, 133, 157, 160– 1, 180, 186, 212, 214, 265n16 and European Union, 89 French Alps, 6–7 nuclear power plants, 56–7 and the Pacific, 212, 214 and the Panama Canal, 91 and Suez Canal, 85, 87–9 Franklin, Sir John, 105–6 French Polynesia, 212 Gaddy, Clifford, 99 Gandhi, Indira, 156, 265n12 Gandhi, Rajiv, 177–8 Ganges River, 142 G8 summit (2006), 100 Germany, 16, 50, 86, 97, 161, 168, 186 glaciers, 6–7, 10, 18, 75–6, 134, 141–3, 145, 183–4, 191– See Aletsch glacier; Siachen glacier global climate assessment (2008), global financial crisis of 2008– 2009, 29, 83, 98, 161, 163, 168 global shipping, 79–84, 103, 258n4 See chokepoints; Northwest Passage; Panama Canal; Suez Canal globalization, 79–80, 96, 116, 168 Grand Bahamas Airport, 97 Great Barrier Reef, 194 276 Great Britain, 7, 11–12, 50, 85– 91, 101, 103,105–7, 112, 125, 130, 152–3, 155, 162, 180, 186, 214, 226, 237 and China, 101, 152 heat wave (2003), 50 nuclear weapon program, 162 and the Pacific, 214 and Pakistan, 155 and the Panama Canal, 91 and United States, 89 See British Empire; Suez Canal Greater London Authority, 51 Greece, 82 greenhouse gas emissions, 15– 16, 47, 74–5 See carbon dioxide; methane Greenland, 192 geopolitics and the sea, 85–103 Gobi desert, China, 144 groundwater depletion, 14–15, 70, 140, 191 Grunwald, Michael, 41–2 Hadley Centre, 9, 50, 57, 246 Haiti, 246 Harper, Stephen, 100, 123 Harris County Commission, 35 Harwich International Port, 97 “heat island” effect, 51 heat waves, 39–40, 49, 50, 53, 50, 53, 57 See European heat wave (2003) Helin, Calvin, 121–2 Himalayas, 18, 70, 108–9, 141– 3, 175, 177, 183–4, 192 Holman prints, 67–8 Homestead Air Force Base, 38 Hong Kong, 82, 89, 168 Hoover Dam, 55 Houston, Texas, U.S., 34–5, 46 Hu Jintao, 144, 152, 171, 181, 184–5 Huai river (China), 145 Hudson, Glenn, 121 human history, 5–6, 14, 130–3 See overpopulation Huq, Saleemul, 243 Hurricane Andrew (1992), 4, 38 Hurricane Frederic (1979), 43 Hurricane Gustav (2008), 19, 36 Hurricane Ike (2008), 4, 19, 36 Hurricane Katrina (2005), 4, 14–15, 19, 25, 28–9, 31– 7, 38, 40–2, 44–6, 48–50, 174, 239–40, 248 damages from, 35–7 emergency response to, 31–2 and evacuees, 34–5 hurricane protection system, 41 and oil and gas production, 35–6 GLOBAL WARRING and social instability, 32–4 See Blackwater; U.S Army Corps of Engineers Hurricane Rita, 28–9, 36, 37 Hurricane Wilma, 28–9, 37 Hussein, Saddam, 12, 260n32 Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), 96–7 hydroelectricity, 26, 56, 58, 60, 139, 142–3 hydrological engineering, 130– 1, 139, 144 ice ages, 6, 11, 65, 75–6, 192, 258n27, 272n1 See Little Ice Age ice sheets, 192 ice storms, 25–8, 30, 57–8 icebreakers, 92, 117–18 Iceland, 68, 83, 124, 180 India, 136–41 domestic, 168–9 environmental agriculture, 136–7, 140 dams, 138–9 disaster preparedness, 45 energy, 55–6 extreme weather, 133, 136–8 infrastructure, 137, 140–1 migration to cities, 137 precipitation, 2, 4, 20, 133, 136–40 sea level rise, 137–8 strong social networks, 140, 149 water scarcity, 142 See monsoon; Mumbai; Surat flooding geopolitics alliances, 136, 186 border politics, 177–8, 182 emotional positivism, 154, 157, 183 and global trade, 81 helicopter industry, 36 and HPH ports, 97 intelligence gathering, 169 long-term planning, 101, 140–1 national security, 153–4, 168 and nationalism, 151–2, 183 and nuclear weapons, 101, 157, 177–80, 184 as “swing vote,” 158, 180, 185–6 international relations Bangladesh, 141, 177 China, 101, 149, 153–4, 158, 180–5 Japan, 234 Pacific Islands, 213–14 Russia, 17, 158, 180–1 South Korea, 234 Soviet Union, 154 Tonga, 213 United States, 36, 117, 154– 7, 164, 178–80, 185, 214 the West, 155, 178–80, 183, 185–6 national history, 151–3, 169 See First War of Independence Indian Council of Ministers, 152 India Disaster Management Congress, 140 Indian Ocean, 155, 182, 193–4, 223, 226, 230 Indonesia, 95–7, 162, 221, 226 Indus Valley, 14, 130, 132, 139 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), international borders, 228–9 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Studies, 142 International Herald Tribune, 170 International Institute for Environment and Development, 243 International Institute for Sustainable Development (Canada), 54 International Labor Organization, 210 international maritime law, 227– 35 See UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS); International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) International Monetary Fund (IMF), 89, 125, 162–3, 168 international partnerships, 246– International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), 227, 231 Inuvialuit, 65–8, 71, 114 Iran, 162–5 Iraq, 90, 130, 132, 164–5, 207 Iraq Study Group (ISG), 164–5 Iraq war, 12, 35, 44–6, 117, 160– 1, 164–6, 226 iron ore, 81 irrigation, 2, 5, 14, 59, 130–2, 138–9, 145 Islamic extremists, 161 Isthmus of Panama, 90–1 Israel, 88–90, 131, 146, 189 Italy, 50, 86 ivus (ice shoves), 70 Japan, 12, 51, 81–2, 98, 107, 152, 163, 168, 178, 196, INDEX 206, 209, 211–13, 223, 233–4 Jefferson, Thomas, 105, 110 jellyfish plagues (2006), 51 JFK Airport, U.S., 39 Jordan, 131 kamikaze (Divine Wind), 12 Kaplan, Robert, 207 Kashmir, 153, 155, 178 Kazakhstan, 131, 160, 162, 166 Kenai Peninsula (Alaska), 72 Kenya Meteorological Service, 134 Khan, Kublai, 12 Kim Il Sung, 146–7 King, Sir David, 50 Kiribati, 190, 195–8, 200, 204, 209, 212 Kissinger, Henry, 118–19, 155– 7, 265nn12,16 Korea, 13, 81, 163, 170, 211, 213, 223 Kosovo, 207 Kyrgyzstan (Kyrgyz Republic), 162, 166–8, 180 LaGuardia Airport, U.S., 38–9 Laos, 95, 142 Larson, Larry, 43–4 Las Vegas, U.S., 59 Latin America, 101, 135–6, 149, 180–1, 185, 199 League of Nations, 220 Liberia, 115 Lyme disease, 51 Little Ice Age, 6, 11, 272n1 London, 19, 51–3, 97, 161 See Thames River; Thamesport The London climate change adaptation strategy, 52 long-term planning, 5, 44, 47, 98, 100–1, 103, 110, 121, 140–1, 143, 146–7, 168, 199, 202, 209, 239, 241, 244, 246, 249 Loster, Thomas, 42 Louisiana, U.S., 35, 48–9, 111 Liu Zihui, 144 Madagascar, 95–6 Malacca Straits chokepoint, 214 Maldives, 189, 193–4, 230–1, 271n18 Mancham, James, 183 Manhattan, New York, 38–40, 46, 76, 98 Manifest Destiny, 110, 125 Manitoba, Canada, 119, 121 Mao Tse-tung See Mao Zedong Mao Zedong, 144, 146–7, 154, 182, 196 Medvedev, Dmitry, 160 monsoon, 1–3, 10, 21, 73, 133– 4, 136–9, 237, 248 Malaysia, 97, 162, 221–2 Man, Nature and History, 11 Marshall Islands, 234 Mayfield, Max, 38 McGee, Thomas D’Arcy, 111 Mediterranean Sea, 51, 69, 85 Meier, Walt, 69 Mekong river, 142 Mercosur, 163 Mesopotamia, 14 Meteorological Office (Met Office) (Great Britain), 8–9 See Hadley Centre methane, 74 Mexico, 97, 111, 113, 207 Miami, Florida, U.S., 38, 46, 228 Middle East, 17, 81, 85, 96, 98, 108, 155, 160–1, 164, 166, 182, 208–9, 223, 226, 228 Miliband, David, 155 Missouri, U.S., 133 Mongolia, 168, 170 Montevideo Convention on Rights and Duties of States (1933), 218–27, 29 Montreal, Canada, 25–8, 119, 240 Morocco, 131, 134 Moscow, Russia, 118, 162, 168 Mountbatten, Louis (1st Earl Mountbatten of Burma), 155 Mugabe, Robert, 95, 101, 202 Mumbai, India, 1–2, 97, 137, 240 Munich Re, 42–3 Murmansk, Russia, 108, 119 muskox, 65–8, 70–1, 77 Myanmar, 4, 97, 142, 177, 227 Nalapat, Madhav Das, 180, 184– Nansen, Fridtjof, 220 Nansen Passports, 220 narco-terrorism, 178, 184 Nasheed, Mohamed, 189 Nasser, Gamal Abdel, 87–9, 91 National Flood Insurance Program, 40, 42–4, 61, 229 National Hurricane Center, 38 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 72 National Review, 112 National Science Foundation, 72 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, 13 277 nationalistic capitalism, 93–103, 120, 124, 135, 148, 158, 161, 163, 173, 177, 183, 185, 197, 223, 233, 248 See China Nature, 74 Nauru, 198, 210 Naval Operations in an Iceless Arctic, 114 Nehru, Jawaharlal, 154 Nepal, 142, 177, 182 New Delhi, India, 137, 155 New Jersey, U.S., 38–40 New Orleans, 14–15, 25, 32–6, 41–2, 46–8, 62, 174, 192, 197, 240 See Hurricane Katrina; U.S Army Corps of Engineers New York City, 38–40, 46, 76, 98 See Manhattan New Zealand, 203, 213–14, 231 Niger Delta, 135 Nigiyok, Louie, 65–8, 70–1, 76– Nixon, Richard, 155–7, 265nn12,16 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), 8, 166, 241, 243 Non-Proliferation Treaty, 101, 179 Noriega, Manuel, 93, 260n32 North American Free Trade Agreement, 111 North American Ice Storm (1998), 25–8, 30, 237, 240 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 123, 125, 162 North Korea, 12–13, 146–7, 164, 178, 199, 208, 267n61 North Pole, 115, 120 North Sea, 108 Northeast Project (China), 170 Northern Sea Route, 106, 260n7 Northwest Passage, 19–20, 76– 7, 83–4, 90–2, 97, 103, 105–10, 114–20, 122–5, 165, 180, 208, 225, 260n7, 262n46 and climate change, 105–6 and commerce, 76–7 geopolitics of, 83–4, 106–10, 114–20, 123 and natural resources, 107–8, 117 open access to, 116–17, 122 and Panama Canal, 90, 91–2 and port ownership, 97 See Bering Strait; icebreakers 278 Norway, 68, 72, 98, 100, 108, 247 See Snohvit gas field nuclear power, 51, 55–8, 118, 121, 157, 178–80, 182, 226 Nyong, Anthony, 243 Obama, Barack, 227 open access, 116–17, 122, 225 Operation Just Cause, 92–3, 97 Operation Katrina, 33 Opium Wars (1839–1842; 1856– 1860), 152–3 Order of the Knights Hospitaller of St John’s of Jerusalem, 219 “Otzi,” 71 overfishing, 14, 51, 108, 209 overpopulation, 131–3, 148 Ozymandias, 129, 149, 186 Pacific islands, 17, 20, 61, 90, 189–90, 193–202, 210– 13, 215, 217–18, 225–6, 229–34, 234 and the international community, 210–14 legalities of existence of, 217– 31 nuclear tests in, 212 and refugees, 231 and Taiwan, 195–9, 211–13 and United States, 212–13, 215 See China-Pacific Island relations; Fiji; Nauru; Papua New Guinea; Tonga; Tuvalu; Solomon Islands; Vanuatu Pacific Ocean, 209–10, 214 Pacific region, 206–14, 223 Pakistan, 96, 101, 142, 153, 155–8, 162, 166, 177–8, 181–4, 200, 265n10 and nuclear weapons, 101, 177–8, 182 Panama Canal, 76, 79, 82–4, 90– 3, 96–7, 102–3, 105–6, 110, 112, 115, 125, 208, 210, 223 See Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) Panama Canal Zone, 91 Panamanian Defense Force, 97 Papua New Guinea (PNG), 190, 202, 204, 213 Paraguay, Partition (1947), 153, 155 Peguis Indian Band, 121 the Pentagon, 42, 92 People’s Liberation Army, 201 People’s Liberation Army Navy, 208 permafrost, 11, 29–30, 50, 66, 70–1, 74, 107–9, 119, 122, 184, 192 GLOBAL WARRING Persian Gulf, 82, 165–6 Persian Gulf War, 12 Philippines, 221, 226 Pinochet, Augusto, 260n32 pipelines, 30, 35–6, 71, 108–9, 122, 209 Poland, 160 Pope Innocent VIII, population increase, 14, 16, 53, 131–3, 148 See overpopulation Port of Ensenada, 97 Port of Felixstowe, 97 Portugal, 4, 54 precipitation patterns, 2, 4, 9– 10, 18, 20, 28, 51, 56, 133, 136–9, 142, 192 Prince Edward Island, 133 public opinion, 86–9, 91–2 Qatar, 164, 166 Quebec, Canada, 25–7, 110, 262n46 Radack, Steve, 35 Red Cross, 33, 190 Red Sea, 85 Redmann, Thomas, 32–3 Reed, Jack, 45, 165 refugees See environmental refugees Rice, Condoleezza, 100, 115, 167, 232, 260n31 Rumsfeld, Donald, 113 Roman Empire, 131 Roper, Tom, 193 Rumsfeld, Donald, 167 Roosevelt, Theodore, 79 Rusk, Dean, 91–2 Russell, Claire, 148 Russell, W M S., 11, 130, 148 Russia and agriculture, 54 geopolitics, 16, 20, 68, 83, 106–8, 116–20, 125, 157–8 international relations Asia, 16–17, 160 Canada, 118–20, 122–3 China, 16–17, 107, 118, 120, 160, 247 Cuba, 228 Kyrgyz Republic, 167 Manifest Destiny, 125 military consolidation of, 167–8 nationalistic capitalism, 98– 100, 120, 124, 158 natural resources, 16–17, 98– 9, 108–9, 119, 157–8 See Bering Strait; icebreakers; Murmansk; Northwest Passage; Shtokman field Russia-Georgia War (2008), 100 Russian Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route), 106–7 Russian revolution, 220 Russia–Ukraine gas disputes, 109 Saami, 71–3 Said, Abdel Moneim, 164–5 Sakhalin gas field, 99 Samoa, 198 Sarila, Narendra Singh, 155 SARS, 173 Saskatchewan, Canada, 120–1 Saudi Arabia, 58, 96, 98, 155 Scud missiles, 12 sea ice depletion (Arctic), 4, 19, 65–70, 72–3, 76, 83, 106, 117, 132 sea level rise, 9, 15, 17–20, 30, 37, 39, 46, 56–8, 82, 132, 137–8, 141, 146, 174, 176, 187, 189–92 See Pacific Islands seabasing, 161, 207–8 September 11, 2001, 112, 113, 160, 165 Serreze, Mark, 69 Service, Robert, 63 Seychelles, 167, 182–3, 194 Shanghai, China, 174, 176 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), 162, 167–8 Shell, 99 Shelley, Percy Bysshe, 129 shipping See global shipping short-term planning, 42–4, 47, 52, 61–2, 100, 103, 117, 122, 125, 161, 165, 168, 173, 183, 209, 233, 241 Shtokman field, 108 Siachen glacier, 183–4 Siberia, 74, 108, 143, 202 Sichuan earthquake (2008), 177 Singapore, 58, 214, 221 Singh, Manmohan, 140, 152 Sino-Indian War, 154 Six-Day War (1967), 89 Sluijs, Appy, 75 Snohvit gas field, 108 Snow, John, 37 Solomon Islands, 205 South America, 4, 20, 76, 81, 90, 97, 133, 163, 175, 208, 210 South China Sea, 142, 208, 220– South Korea, 13, 95, 100, 209, 233–4 Southeast China typhoons (2006), 240, 242 Soviet Union, 87, 89, 93, 146, 154–5, 157, 161, 166, 170, 178, 185–6, 221–2, 256n74 Spain, 50, 54, 86 INDEX Spanish-American War (1898), 86 Spanish Armada, 12 Spratly Islands, 221–2 Sri Lanka, 177 state existence, 218–31 StatoilHydro, 98 Stern Review, 142, 176 storm surge, 9–10, 18–19, 30, 37–8, 56, 58, 69, 82, 135, 141, 146, 176, 193, 218 Strait of Hormuz, 82–3 subsidence, 15, 30, 32, 37, 41, 46, 48, 52, 58 Sudan, 95, 101, 199–200 Suez Canal, 20, 76, 83–90, 96–7, 105–7, 112, 182 Suez Canal Company, 87 Suez Crisis (1956), 85–90, 97, 112 Sumerians, 130, 133–4, 139, 143, 148, 238 Sun Tzu, 11, 151 Surat flooding (India) (2006), 139 Svalbard research base (Arctic), 120 Sweden, 68–9, 72, 108 Switzerland, 6–7 Syria, 131, 181 Taiwan, 153, 170, 176, 195–9, 203–4, 206, 208–9, 211– 13, 221, 225, 231–3 See China-Taiwan relations Tajikistan, 162, 166, 168 Task Force on the Future of North America, 111 Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway project, 41 terrorism, 44–5, 124, 139, 155, 161, 177–8, 184 Texas, 34–5, 46, 111 See Houston Thailand, 96–7, 142, 162, 221 Thames Barrier, 19, 52, 256n74 Thamesport (London), 97 Three Gorges Dam (China), 55 “Three Rs,” 239–43, 249 Tibet, 108–9, 142–3, 153–4, 170, 176, 181, 202–3, 205, 219 See China-Tibet relations Tong, Anote, 195–8, 204 Tong, Harry, 198 Tonga, 200–5, 213, 231, 234 Tonga Council for the Promotion of Peaceful Reunification of China, 203 transportation routes See Northwest Passage; Panama Canal; Suez Canal Tropical Cyclone Nargis, Tropical Storm Fay, Tunisia, 131 Turkey, 208 Turkmenistan, 166 Tuvalu, 189–90, 193, 210, 217– 18, 224–5, 228 Ukraine, 53, 109 Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, 66–8 Umbarger, R Martin, 44 UNESCO, 210 Unified Command Plan, 113 United Kingdom (UK), 19–20, 28–9, 50–3, 56–7, 61, 68, 73, 82, 85–9, 97, 103, 107, 112, 123–4, 162, 247 and the Arctic, 68 and disease, 73 and environmental change, 19–20, 28–9 and flooding, 51–3 and food security, 73 and infrastructure, 29, 50–3, 56–7 and international shipping, 82 and Northwest Passage, 123–4 relationship with U.S., 162 See Diego Garcia; London; Suez Canal; Thames Barrier United Nations, 3–4, 9, 15, 88– 9, 125, 197, 219–20 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 227–9, 271n23 U.N Environment Programme (UNEP), 9, 142, 190 U.N Security Council, 125 United States domestic, 42–4, 46–9, 61, 163–4, 169 economic, 29, 36, 102–3, 168 and energy, 56–7, 59, 93, 99, 135 environmental agriculture, 53, 59 damages costs, 29, 35, 42 and ice storms, 28 and infrastructure, 29–30 unstable development, 41–4, 47, 62 and “urban triage,” 46 water security, 29, 59 foreign policy allies, 117–18, 161–4, 165, 168, 233–4, 247 negotiation style, 100–1 geopolitics the Arctic, 68, 207 contemporary overview of, 160–8 intelligence failures, 165–6 long-term planning, 47, 168 279 national security, 13, 42, 99, 102–3, 207 Northwest Passage policy, 20, 83, 114–18, 120, 122–3, 208 Pacific Ocean region, 206– 10 Panama Canal, 79, 90–3, 97, 102 See Operation Just Cause post–Cold War, 160–1, 213 and power shift, 102–3, 160–7, 208 proxy wars, 174–5 shipping, 82, 115 short-term planning, 42–3, 46, 122, 161, 233 and South China Sea, 222–3 and Suez Canal, 87–90 vulnerabilities of, 31–2, 40– 50, 99 international relations Afghanistan, 174, 178, 207 Africa, 135 Australia, 213 Canada, 100–1, 110–18, 120, 122–3, 207 Central Asia, 17 China, 102–3, 199, 206–10, 233 Cuba, 228 Egypt, 90 Fiji, 232 India, 36, 117, 154–7, 164, 178–80, 185, 214 Japan, 234 Mexico, 207 North Korea, 199 Pacific Islands, 208, 231–4 Pakistan, 155 South Korea, 234 Soviet Union, 93, 166, 178 Taiwan, 233 Turkey, 208 See commerce-security continuum; Iraq war; U.S coasts; U.S military; U.S Northern Command U.S Army, 12–13, 45 U.S Army Air Corps, 12 U.S Army Corps of Engineers, 15, 40–2, 61 U.S Atlantic Coast, 30, 38–40 U.S coasts, 17, 29–31, 37–42, 46 See Florida; Hurricane Katrina; U.S Atlantic Coast; U.S Gulf Coast U.S Congress, 41, 100, 117 U.S Defense Science Board Task Force, 160, 207 U.S Department of Justice, 49 U.S Department of State, 118 U.S Department of Transportation, 30, 36–7 280 U.S dollar, 163 U.S Geological Survey, 32, 107–8 U.S Global Change Research Program, 39 U.S Government Accountability Office, 34 U.S Gulf Coast, 14–15, 19, 29– 30, 35–7, 46, 55, 134, 191, 244 See Hurricane Katrina; National Flood Insurance Program U.S.-Mexico border, 97 U.S military, 44–5, 97, 116–17, 160–2, 209, 232 See U.S Northern Command; U.S military bases U.S military bases, 160–2, 167, 197, 207–8, 213, 223, 225–6 See Diego Garcia; seabasing U.S National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection, and Counterterrorism, 45 U.S National Guard, 33, 44–5 U.S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 72, 246 U.S National Snow and Ice Data Center at Colorado University, 69 U.S Navy, 114 U.S Northern Command (USNORTHCOM), 113–14, 116–18, 122 U.S Senate Armed Services Committee, 45, 165 USS Kitty Hawk, 209 GLOBAL WARRING Uruguay, Uzbekistan, 162, 166–7 Vanuatu (Pacific Islands), 190, 198–9, 210 Vavae, Hilia, 217 Venema, Henry, 54 Venezuela, 98, 124, 163 Victoria Island (Canada), 65–6 Vietnam, 81, 92, 142, 214, 221– 2, 231 Vox Stellarum, Wairoto, Joshua, 134 Walter, Katey M., 74 War in Afghanistan, 160–1, 166–8 warming, 4, 10, 28, 37, 49, 50, 52, 57, 68–70, 73–5, 133, 138, 191, 193, 258n22 See sea ice depletion; sea level rise; glaciers; permafrost; precipitation patterns Washington, D.C., 48 Washington, George, 12, 110 Washington Post, 41, 44 water scarcity, 18, 29, 39, 54, 58–9, 141–5, 175–6, 183–4 weather, 1–13 Wen Jiabao, 149, 200 the West and anti-West sentiment, 161– and carbon emissions, 246 and Chinese foreign policy, 199, 205 and development of, 244 and educational institutions, 163–4 and energy security, 55–61, 98–9 and food supply, 53–4, 95 and growth, 129–30 and imports, 135–6 and India, 155, 178–80, 183, 185–6 intelligence failures of, 165–6 and oil supplies, 209 and pre–World War I infrastructure, 29 and private insurers, 42 and Russia, 118 See colonialism; “flags of convenience”; shortterm planning West Pakistan, 153, 156 Wahhabi extremists, 155 Wan, Robert, 204 White, Bill, 35 wildfires, 133 Williams, Ian, 102 World Bank, 43, 125, 162–3 World Health Organization, 173 World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 3–4, World War II, 12, 86–7, 112, 196 Wyden, Ron, 99 Xinhua, 171–2 Yahoo!, 171 Yukon, Canada, 71–2 Zimbabwe, 95, 101, 134, 202–3 .. .GLOBAL WARRING This page intentionally left blank GLOBAL WARRING HOW ENVIRONMENTAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL CRISES WILL REDRAW THE WORLD MAP CLEO PASKAL GLOBAL WARRING Copyright... year, the UN’s World Meteorological GLOBAL WARRING Organization (WMO) puts out a summary of the previous year’s climate conditions The WMO assessment of the global climate in 2008 reported that:... phenomenon we know as El Niño affected both Australia and India This is also GLOBAL WARRING one of the reasons most global modern climate records date to around the 1860s.8 The science was firming