Climatic cataclysm

Kurt M Campbell editor CLIMATIC CATACLYSM The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change CLIMATIC CATACLYSM K URT M C AMPBELL EDITOR CLIMATIC CATACLYSM THE FOREIGN POLICY AND NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS Washington, D.C ABOUT BROOKINGS The Brookings Institution is a private nonprofit organization devoted to research, education, and publication on important issues of domestic and foreign policy Its principal purpose is to bring the highest quality independent research and analysis to bear on current and emerging policy problems Interpretations or conclusions in Brookings publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors Copyright © 2008 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C 20036 www.brookings.edu All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Climatic cataclysm : the foreign policy and national security implications of climate change / Kurt M Campbell, editor p cm Summary: “Presents three scenarios of what the future may hold: expected, severe, and catastrophic and analyzes the security implications of each Considers what can be learned from early civilizations confronted with natural disaster and asks what the largest emitters of greenhouse gases can to reduce and manage future risks”—Provided by publisher Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 978-0-8157-1332-6 (cloth : alk paper) Climatic changes—Government policy Climatic changes—Forecasting Climatic changes—Social aspects International relations—Forecasting National security I Campbell, Kurt M II Title QC981.8.C5C625 2008 363.738'74526—dc22 2008012194 987654321 The paper used in this publication meets minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials: ANSI Z39.48-1992 Typeset in Minion Composition by Circle Graphics Columbia, Maryland Printed by R R Donnelley Harrisonburg, Virginia Contents Acknowledgments National Security and Climate Change in Perspective vii Kurt M Campbell and Christine Parthemore Can History Help with Global Warming? 26 J R McNeill Three Plausible Scenarios of Future Climate Change 49 Jay Gulledge Security Implications of Climate Scenario 1: Expected Climate Change over the Next Thirty Years 97 John Podesta and Peter Ogden Security Implications of Climate Scenario 2: Severe Climate Change over the Next Thirty Years 133 Leon Fuerth Security Implications of Climate Scenario 3: Catastrophic Climate Change over the Next One Hundred Years 155 Sharon Burke v vi C ONTENTS A Partnership Deal: Malevolent and Malignant Threats 169 R James Woolsey Setting the Negotiating Table: The Race to Replace Kyoto by 2012 191 Julianne Smith and Alexander T J Lennon Conclusion: The Clear Implications of Global Climate Change 213 Kurt M Campbell and Richard Weitz Contributors 225 Index 227 Acknowledgments This project on climate change and national security fundamentally changed the perspective of its participants Over the course of many months of meetings two very diverse groups—scientists and strategists—came together to explore the potentially profound implications of unchecked climate change on global security The result was a sobering, sometimes even harrowing, set of assessments of what the world can expect if a carbon-based business-asusual approach to civilization continues and expands in the years ahead This volume is our attempt to concretely explore scenarios that most of us seem either to ignore or deny while we proceed with our daily tasks The hope here is that by extrapolating on current trends and developments we might be better positioned to appreciate just how much current actions imperil future lives This book owes an enormous debt to several friends and colleagues who helped during the process of writing and researching First, I would like to thank a distinguished group of nationally recognized leaders who helped to inform the discussion that took place over the course of a year, leading up to this book’s publication We identified and recruited these leaders from the fields of climate science, foreign policy, political science, oceanography, history, and national security to take part in this endeavor Members of the group included Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling; Pew Center Senior Scientist Jay Gulledge; National Academy of Sciences President Ralph Cicerone; American Meteorological Society Fellow Bob Correll; Woods Hole Oceanovii viii A CKNOWLEDGMENTS graphic Institute Senior Scientist Terrence Joyce and former Vice President Richard Pittenger; Climate Institute Chief Scientist Mike MacCracken; John McNeill of Georgetown University; former CIA Director James Woolsey; former Chief of Staff to the President John Podesta; former National Security Adviser to the Vice President Leon Fuerth; Jessica Bailey, Sustainable Development Program officer at the Rockefeller Brothers Fund; Rand Beers, president of the National Security Network; General Counsel Sherri Goodman of the Center for Naval Analysis; CNAS Senior Fellow Derek Chollet; President of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change Eileen Claussen; Gayle Smith, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress; Daniel Poneman, principal of the Scowcroft Group; Senior Fellow Susan Rice of the Brookings Institution; and principal of the Albright Group Wendy Sherman In particular, I want to single out the senior scientist from the Pew Center on Climate Change, Jay Gulledge, whose advice, good judgment, and expertise were essential to this project In addition, we are deeply indebted to the National Intelligence Council and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund for their generous support of the project I am especially grateful for the assistance of Alexander Lennon and Julianne Smith of the Center for Strategic and International Studies who helped coordinate the discussions that produced an initial report on this topic, published jointly in 2007 by Center for a New American Security and Center for Stategic and International Studies My thanks go to Bob Faherty of Brookings Institution Press who gave us the support to expand our initial publication into the much longer, more detailed version of the study that follows Finally, I need to thank Senior Fellow Sharon Burke of CNAS who provided a great deal of help in reviewing drafts of our chapters from the beginning to the end and all-purpose support in bringing this project to fruition; Christine Parthemore of CNAS who devoted countless hours in editing and research assistance to ensure that this publication was of the highest standards; and Whitney Parker of CNAS, who provided editing assistance as well as guidance throughout the publication process and kept all tracks running smoothly CLIMATIC CATACLYSM About the Contributors Sharon Burke is a senior fellow and director of the energy security project at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Kurt M Campbell is CEO and cofounder of the Center for a New American Security and is a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and the Pacific Leon Fuerth is a research professor of international affairs at George Washington University; he was national security adviser to Vice President Al Gore Jay Gulledge is the senior scientist and program manager for science and impacts at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change Alexander T J Lennon is the editor-in-chief of the Washington Quarterly and a fellow in the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies J R McNeill is a professor of history at Georgetown University Peter Ogden is senior national security analyst at the Center for American Progress 225 226 A BOUT THE C ONTRIBUTORS Christine Parthemore is a research assistant for the energy security project at the Center for a New American Security John Podesta is president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and was chief of staff for President Bill Clinton Julianne Smith is the director of the Europe program and the Initiative for Renewed Transatlantic Partnership at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Richard Weitz is a senior fellow and director of program management at the Hudson Institute R James Woolsey is a venture partner at VantagePoint Venture Partners and is a former director of the CIA Index Africa: cost of malaria, 109; effects of MOC collapse, 79; expected climate change effects, 19, 70, 102–03; historical natural disasters, 28, 30, 39; population movement in response to climate change, 102; public resistance to colonial government interventions, 37; Scenario outcomes, 142; Scenario outcomes, 164; security implications of environmental problems, 8; sensitivity to climate change effects, 75 See also Middle East and North Africa; specific country Agriculture: in Africa, 102–03; in China, 111; Scenario outcomes, 66, 100, 102–03, 111; Scenario outcomes, 67, 134, 137; Scenario outcomes, 67–68, 159–60 Antarctic, 72, 171, 172–74 Arctic: expected climate change effects, 72, 75; permafrost thawing, 171–72; Scenario outcomes, 135; Scenario outcomes, 162–63; territorial claims in, 15 Armed conflict: expected climate change effects in Africa, 102, 103; natural disaster outcomes, 35, 38–40; over water access, 105; Scenario outcomes, 19, 152, 216; Scenario outcomes, 161, 162–63 See also Military planning and operations; National security issues Army War College, 16 Arnell, Nigel W., 78–79 ASEAN, 122 Asia: effects of MOC collapse, 79; expected climate change effects, 70–71, 77, 99–102; population movement in response to climate change, 100–01; Scenario outcomes, 174; Scenario outcomes, 159; sensitivity to climate change effects, 75 See also specific country Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate, 208 Australia and New Zealand, 32–33, 53, 72 Austria, 196 227 228 I NDEX Baettig, M B., 75 Bailey, Jessica, Baker, James, Bangladesh, 99–100, 119, 140, 141 Barrett, Peter, 174 Beers, Rand, Biofuel production, 120, 186–87 Blair, Tony, 194 Boer, Yvo de, 191 Borrell, Bob, Boutros-Ghali, Boutros, Boxer, Barbara, 202 Brazil, 120 Brown, Lester, 3, 12, 14 Brundtland, Gro Harlem, 3, 14 Bush (G H W.) administration, 6, 199 Bush (G W.) administration, 10, 191, 199–200 Cameron, David, 11 Canada: Arctic territorial claims, 15; energy resources, 116; expected climate change effects, 71; Scenario outcomes, 138; United States and, 138 Cap and trade proposals, 9, 199, 202–03 Catastrophic climate change (Scenario 3): abrupt and extreme weather events in, 77–83, 155–56, 158, 160–61, 164, 216–17; agricultural production and, 159–60; as creative destruction, 167; definition and assumptions, 17, 19, 57–58, 83, 158–61; disaster relief capacity, 164; energy production and, 163, 219; international conflict in, 162–63, 164; mortality, 159; plausibility, 170; population movement in, 163, 164, 165; potential mitigating factors, 166–67, 217; rationale for considering, 157–58, 166; sea-level rise, 57, 61, 67–68, 80–83, 158, 160, 169, 172–74; social functioning and governance, 161–62, 163–64; temperature change, 19, 158–59, 169, 216; water supply and access, 159 Center for Naval Analysis Corporation, 16 Center for New American Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies, China: agricultural productivity, 139–40; climate change recognition and response, 204–05, 206–08; desertification, 111; economic development trends, 205–07; energy economy, 110, 116, 120, 173, 205, 207; expected climate change effects, 110–12; future challenges, 145; greenhouse gas emissions, 20, 110, 113–14, 191–92, 205, 207; historical natural disasters, 28, 29; political structure, 113, 140; population movement, 112; public awareness of climate change, 100, 112–13, 208; public perception of natural disasters, 37; role in global climate change response, 209, 221; Russia and, 117–18, 176–77; Scenario outcomes, 139–40; Scenario outcomes, 165; sensitivity to climate change effects, 75; United States and, 114, 116; water supply, 112, 140, 206 Chlorofluorocarbons, 43 Cholera, 36 Chollet, Derek, Cicerone, Ralph, Claussen, Eileen, Climate change, generally: Bush (G W.) administration policies, 10, 191, 199–200; China’s significance, 209, 221; Clinton administration policies, 7–9; economic growth and, 173; energy production infrastructure Index vulnerability, 177; European role in addressing, 122–23, 192–98; expected consequences, 12; exponential change in, 170; feedback effects, 56–58, 97–98, 171–73; historical data and patterns, 26–27, 60; human response to natural disasters and, 18, 27, 43–45, 175; impact on poor countries and populations, 14; implications for military planning and operations, 16–17, 217; international cooperation in disaster relief, 121–25; legislative responses, 8; linkage to national security, 5–9, 11–15, 16, 213–14; as malignant problem, 169–70; mathematical modeling, 18; media coverage, 10–11; myths, 52–54; in national security scholarship, 1–3; need for international collaboration on, 15–17; obstacles to forming and implementing responses to, 20–21; pattern, 52–53, 68–69; planning scenarios, 2, 17–18, 49–55, 83, 169; precipitation, 69–74; public recognition and interest, 4–5, 10, 202, 203; regional sensitivities, 74–75; reliability of projections, 97–98, 157; role of international organizations, 121–23; significance of threat from, 20, 222–23; social and political change related to, 44, 220; technological response, 41–42, 166, 217; temperature, 69; terrorism as related national security threat, 19–20, 171, 179–88; U.S role in international response, 203–04, 209, 221–22; vulnerability of developed nations, 53–54 See also Catastrophic climate change (Scenario 3); Expected climate change (Scenario 1); Scientific research on climate change; Severe climate change (Scenario 2) 229 Climate Change Action Plan, Clinton administration, 7–9, 199 Coal production and use: carbon capture and storage technology, 184; in China, 110; coal-to-liquid technology, 187–88; emissions reduction technology, 118–19; trends, 118 Coastal flooding See Sea level rise and coastal flooding Complex phenomenon, 135, 149–50, 170 Czech Republic, 196 Dabelko, Geoffrey, 8–9 Darfur region, 15, 103, 105 Denmark, 181–82, 193 Desertification, 15; expected climate change effects in Africa, 103; expected climate change effects in China, 111; Scenario outcomes, 68 Deudney, Daniel, 11 Developing nations, climate change and: effects on development projects, 101–02; Kyoto Protocol, 9; outcomes, 14, 67, 217–18; vulnerability, 98, 99 Disease prevalence and infection patterns: economic implications, 108; political context, 109; population movement and, 109; Scenario outcomes, 19, 109–10, 214, 218; Scenario outcomes, 142, 144, 214 See also Epidemics and pandemics Distribution of wealth, climate change outcomes and, 14 Doomsday Clock, Droughts: climate change outcomes, 68, 73, 76; costs, 34; historical mortality, 28; international responses, 39; social disruption in, 37; Somalian experience, 161; survival strategies, 29, 30, 31–32 230 I NDEX Earthquakes and tsunamis: costs, 34; historical mortality, 29; international responses, 38; social disruption after, 36 Economic issues: Chinese climate change policies, 205–06; Clinton administration environmental regulation and, 7–8; contingency funds for disaster response, 31; costs of natural disasters, 34–35; creative destruction, 35; disease outbreak costs, 109; incentives for increasing energy conservation, 183–84; investments in green technologies, 201; linkage to environmental and climate change, 13, 173; obstacles to responding to climate change threats, 20–21; price of oil, 115–16; prospects for voluntary changes in consumption, 42–43; recent shift in U.S climate change policies, 201; Scenario shocks, 142, 143 Eemian period, 60 Egypt, 141 Electromagnetic pulse, 179 Energy Independence and Security Act, 202 Energy Policy for Europe, 192, 196, 197 Energy production and use: alternative and sustainable fuels, 186–88; building design efficiency, 181; China’s growth pattern, 110, 205; climate change threats, 177, 219; combined heat and power technology, 181–82; effects of MOC collapse, 80; in Europe, 192, 193–94, 195–97; expected climate change effects, 102, 114–20, 214; growth trends, 173; industry incentives for conservation, 182–83; motor vehicle efficiency, 184–86, 201–02; prospects for voluntary changes in consumption, 42–43; recent shift in U.S policies, 201–03; Scenario outcomes, 163, 219; small-scale distributed production, 182–83; terrorist threats to, 178–79; union of anti-terrorist and environmental strategies, 179–88 Environmental protection: Clinton administration policies, 7; early consideration of national security issues and, 3, 5, 6; technology research and development and, 42 Epidemics and pandemics: historical mortality, 28, 34–35; international responses, 38; prevention strategies, 30; resistance to public health measures, 36–37; sociopolitical effects, 36, 40–41; vulnerability of societies, 32 See also Disease prevalence and infection patterns Estonia, 196 Ethiopia, 35, 141, 161 Europe and European Union: effects of MOC collapse, 78, 79, 80; emissions trading program, 192, 195–96; Energy Policy for Europe, 192, 196, 197; expected climate change effects, 70, 77, 103–04; greenhouse gas emissions, 20, 191–92, 205; historical natural disasters, 27, 28–29, 36, 40–41; immigration trends and policies, 103–05; migration outcomes of climate change, 176–77, 218; public opinion and understanding of climate change, 192–93; role in climate change policy making, 122–23, 192–98; Scenario outcomes, 138–40; Scenario outcomes, 67–68, 159, 160, 164–65; vulnerability to climate change effects, 53 Expected climate change (Scenario 1), 17; agricultural outcomes, 111; conceptual basis and assumptions, Index 18–19, 55–56, 83; desensitization to human suffering, 125; determinants of national security vulnerability, 98; disease prevalence and infection patterns, 109–10, 214, 218; energy consumption patterns, 114–20; geographic differences, 70–73; increase in north-south tensions, 218; international cooperation in crisis management, 120–25; national security implications, 19, 98–107, 214; population movement and, 19, 122, 214, 218; potential benefits, 66; related mortality, 107; reliability of projections, 97–98, 214; sea-level rise, 61–66; temperature, 18; water supply and access, 104–07, 112, 175, 218–19 Extreme weather See Storm and extreme weather events Fairclough, A J., 13 Feedback effects: plausibility of catastrophic climate change, 170; in polar regions, 171–73; Scenario assumptions, 97–98; significance of, in climate modeling, 56–58, 171 Fisheries and marine resources: Scenario outcomes, 66–67, 134–35, 140; Scenario outcomes, 67, 82 Floods: climate change effects generally, 73; costs, 34; mortality, 27; prevention and survival strategies, 29, 30; Scenario outcomes, 140; vulnerability of societies, 32 See also Sealevel rise and coastal flooding Foreign assistance: climate change effects on development projects, 101; disaster relief, 121–25, 164, 175, 221 France, 195 Fuerth, Leon, 231 G-7 countries, Georgia, 117 Germany, 193–94, 197 Gleick, Peter, 11 Global Climate Coalition, 199 Goodman, Sherri, Gore, Al, 5, 7, 10, 12, 21, 199, 203, 213 Greece, 38, 193 Greenhouse gas emission: carbon capture and storage technology, 184; China’s growth and, 110, 113–14; climate change planning scenarios, 50, 51–55; Clinton administration policies, 8, 9; emissions trading program, 192, 195–96; international cooperation to reduce, 9, 15–16, 113–14; per capita, 205; permafrost thawing and, 171–72; plausibility of catastrophic climate change, 170; prospects for international agreements on, 43, 208–09; prospects for reducing, 20; sources, 191–92, 203, 205; U.S state legislation on, 202–02 See also Kyoto Protocol Gulledge, Jay, Hansen, James, 4, 6, 59–60, 171, 172–73, 199 Holocene period, 27 Homer-Dixon, Homer, 13, 15 Hua Jianmin, 205–06 Hungary, 196 Huntsman, Jon, Jr., 202 Hurricanes and typhoons: costs, 34; extreme events in climate change, 76–77; Hurricane Katrina, 29, 34, 35, 136, 152, 155, 177; social disruption outcomes, 35, 40 Ice ages, 26, 27, 43, 60 Imboden, D M., 75 232 I NDEX An Inconvenient Truth, 10, 203 India: carbon emissions, 100–01; climate change planning, 100–01; disease outbreaks, 108; future challenges, 145; historical natural disasters, 28, 37; population movement in response to climate change, 100; prospects for carbon reduction, 100; Scenario outcomes, 140–41; Scenario outcomes, 158, 163, 164; water supply and access, 140–41 Indonesia, 29, 123 Inhofe, James, 202 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 10, 146, 199, 213; Fourth Assessment Report, 49, 68–69, 97, 173, 200–01; purpose, 4; scenarios, 50–51, 133, 134; Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 50–55, 57, 61; Third Assessment Report, 58–59, 200 International Energy Outlook, 114, 118, 119 International relations: agreements to reduce environmental threats, 9, 11; Arctic territorial claims, 15; climate change implications, 3–7, 220–21; coordinated immigration policies, 108; crisis response, 120–25; desensitization to human suffering, 125; effects of public health crises, 109; energy production and use, 116, 117–18; global governance, 151; natural disaster effects, 38–40; need for collaboration on environmental issues, 15–17; north-south tensions, 217–18; prospects for greenhouse gas reduction agreements, 43, 113–14, 208–09; public health planning, 108; role of United Nations, 121–22; Scenario outcomes, 137–38; Scenario outcomes, 162–63, 164 See also Kyoto Protocol Internet, 145 Iran, 105, 178 Iraq, 105, 141 Israel, 105, 106–07, 141 Italy, 41 Japan, 34, 36, 40 Jiang Yu, 205 Jordan, 105, 141 Joyce, Terrence, Kaplan, Robert, Kennan, George, Khrushchev, Nikita, 33 Kristof, Nicholas, 11 Kurdistan, 106 Kurzweil, Ray, 170 Kyoto Protocol: European compliance, 192, 193, 194, 195, 198; expiration, 20, 191, 198; features, 192; shortcomings, 198; U.S policies, 9, 10, 198, 199 Lebanon, 105 Libya, 141 Lugar, Richard, 117 Lu Xuedu, 206 MacCracken, Mike, Malaria, 108 Mathews, Jessica Tuchman, 5, 14 Mbeki, Thabo, 38 McCain, John, 202–03 McNeill, John, MEDEA, 148–49 Media coverage, 10–11 Meridional overturning circulation (MOC), 49, 50; definition and function, 77–78; Scenario assumptions, 134; Scenario assumptions, 57, 76, 78–80, 158; susceptibility to change, 78, 79 Index 233 Methane, 172, 187 Mexico, 37; expected climate change effects, 77; Scenario outcomes, 137–38; Scenario outcomes, 163 Michaels, Patrick, Middle East and North Africa: energy production and use, 119; expected climate change effects, 104–07; population patterns and trends, 107; Scenario outcomes, 141; Scenario outcomes, 159; water supply and access, 104–07, 141 Migration: expected climate change effects, 14, 19, 99–100, 102, 103–05, 108, 112, 214, 218; future challenges, 121–22, 218; linkage to environmental change, 13–14; local ecological knowledge and, 32–33; pandemic risk and, 108; response to natural disaster, 30; in response to persecution, 36; response to prehistoric climate change, 26–27; Sce-nario outcomes, 19, 137–38, 139; Scenario outcomes, 163, 164, 165 See also Population patterns Military planning and operations: climate change implications, 16–17, 175–76, 217; U.S role in international disaster relief, 123–24 MOC See Meridional overturning circulation Morocco, 141 Mortality: Chinese air pollution and, 221; disaster mitigation effectiveness, 31–32; heat-related, 158–59; natural disasters, 27–29, 33; Scenario outcomes, 66, 107; Scenario outcomes, 159, 160 Mullen, Michael, 123 National security issues: climate change planning scenarios, 17–18; climate change research and, 1–3; expected climate change (Scenario 1), 19, 98–107, 214; linkage with environmental and climate issues, 5–9, 11–15, 16, 213–14; self-perpetuating threats, 98; severe climate change (Scenario 2), 19, 136–42, 214–16; union of anti-terrorist and environmental strategies, 179–88 NATO, 117, 151 Natural disasters: contingency funds for, 31; economic outcomes, 34–35; human fertility and, 30, 33; human resistance and resilience, 29–32, 43–44; international relations changed by, 38–40; local ecological knowledge and, 32–33; mortality, 27–29, 33; as proxy for climate change experience, 18, 27, 43–45; public resistance to government interventions, 36–37; social and political outcomes, 35–38, 40–41 Natural gas production and use, 116–18 Nepal, 101–02, 141 Netherlands, 138 Nigeria, 102 Nixon administration, 13 Nobel Peace Prize, 10, 213 Nuclear power: climate change and, 219; in Europe, 195, 197; nuclear weapons and, 119, 187, 219–20; risks, 119–20, 187; trends, 119–20 Nuclear weapons: electromagnetic pulse effects, 179; nuclear power and, 119, 187, 219–20 Nunn, Sam, 6–7 Napoleon III, 38 National Security Council, 3, 13 Obstacles to responding to climate change threats, 20–21 234 I NDEX Oil production and use: infrastructure vulnerability to climate change, 177; Scenario outcomes, 114–16 O’Leary, Hazel, Oppenheimer, Michael, Organization of American States, 122 Ott, Hermann, 13 Ozone reduction agreement, 43 Pakistan: nuclear technology, 119; Scenario outcomes, 164; water supply and access, 141 Paleolithic period, 26 Palestinian territories, 105, 106–07, 141 Peloponnesian War, 35 Pickering, Thomas, Pittenger, Richard, Podesta, John, Poland, 196 Politics and governance: British climate change policy and, 194–95; climate change effects, 44, 220; creative destruction in, 40; expected climate change effects, 214; future challenges, 152–53; future of China, 113; global, 151; to manage complex phenomenon, 135, 149–50; natural disaster outcomes, 36, 37–38, 40; networking model, 150–51; population growth management, 152–53; public confidence in government, 147; public health management, 36–37, 109; pursuit of robust options, 150; resistance to public health measures, 36–37; role of science in climate change policy formulation, 146–50; Scenario effects, 137, 138, 139, 140, 143; Scenario outcomes, 161, 162, 163–64; technology adoption and diffusion, 41; U.S climate change policies, 10, 199–203 Poneman, Daniel, Popper, Karl, 180 Population patterns: agricultural production patterns and, 74; coastal areas, 14, 81; future governance challenges, 152–53; growth trends, 173; Middle East, 107; regional sensitivity to climate change and, 74–75, 176–77 See also Migration Portugal, 40, 193 Precipitation patterns in climate change, 69–74; effects of MOC collapse, 79, 80; expected effects in Africa, 102, 103; extreme events, 76 Public opinion and understanding: in China, 100, 112–13, 208; desensitization to human suffering, 125; early recognition of global warming, 4–5, 199; in Europe, 192–93; expectations for government performance, 147; in India, 100; international perception of U.S., 123–24, 198; media coverage of global warming, 10–11; myths about climate change, 52–54; prospects for voluntary changes in consumption, 42–43; resistance to public health measures, 36–37; of state role in disaster prevention and mitigation, 37–38; in United States, 100, 202, 203 Quarantines, 36 Rachman, Gideon, 206 Rahmstorf, Stefan, 59 Rand Corporation, 150 Reagan administration, Red Cross, 31 Reilly, William, 6, Religious and spiritual attitudes and behaviors: climate change effects, 44; commitment to environmental protection, 201; natural disasters and, Index 40–41; response to severe climate change, 19; Scenario outcomes, 143; Scenario outcomes, 162 Resistance and resilience, 43–44; determinants of society’s capacity for, 32, 44; in modern era, 31–32; strategies, 29–31 Resource scarcity: climate change planning scenarios, 49; expected climate change effects, 19; national security linkage, 3, 12–13 See also Energy supply and access; Fisheries and marine resources; Water supply and access Rice, Susan, Romm, Joseph, 12 Rowlands, Ian, 12–13 Russia: Arctic territorial claims, 15; China and, 117–18, 176–77; energy resources, 117, 196–97; migration outcomes of climate change, 176–77; Scenario outcomes, 139 Sanger, David, 12 Sarkozy, Nicolas, 195 Saudi Arabia, 178 Sawin, Janet, 10 Scapegoating behaviors, 36 Scenario See Expected climate change (Scenario 1) Scenario See Severe climate change (Scenario 2) Scenario See Catastrophic climate change (Scenario 3) Schelling, Thomas, 2, 169 Schnur, Dan, 202 Schumpeter, Joseph, 35, 40 Scientific research on climate change: climate change policy formulation and, 146–50; early efforts, 4, 6; institutional framework, 148–49; mathematical modeling, 18; recent shift in 235 U.S policies, 200–01; response to severe climate change scenario, 146; skeptics and naysayers, 4, 6, 7, 199 Sea level rise and coastal flooding: cause, 58; climate change planning scenarios, 50, 60–61; current scientific understanding, 146–47; expected climate change scenario, 61–66, 98, 101; historical data, 60; implications for population movement, 14; land subsidence and, 175; limitations to modeling, 58–59; Scenario outcomes, 19, 61, 66–67, 134, 136, 139–40, 140, 141, 169, 174–75; Scenario outcomes, 57, 61, 67–68, 80–83, 158, 160, 163, 164, 169, 172–74; vulnerable areas, 84–85, 89–91 Severe acute respiratory syndrome, 108 Severe climate change (Scenario 2): agricultural outcomes, 134, 137, 139–40; definition and assumptions, 17, 19, 56–57, 83, 133, 134–35; economic shocks, 142, 143; fisheries and marine resources in, 134–35; national security implications, 19, 136–42, 214–16; nonlinear events and outcomes, 135, 214; policy development and governance for responding to, 146–53; population movement and, 19, 137–38, 139; public health threats, 142, 143, 144; risk of conflict between nations, 19, 152, 216; sea-level rise, 19, 61, 66–67, 134, 136, 169, 174–75; social consequences, 19, 135–36, 137–38, 139, 142, 143–45, 214–16; societal survival strategies, 144–45; technological innovation to mitigate, 145–46; temperature change, 19, 134, 169; water supply and access, 134, 136–37, 140, 143 236 I NDEX Sherman, Wendy, Singh, Manmohan, 100–01 Slave trade, 39, 42–43 Smallpox, 36–37 Smith, Gayle, Snow, C P., 179 Social structure and relationships: Chinese environmental policy and, 206–07; climate change effects, 44, 220; complex phenomenon in, 135; mitigation of climate change effects, 167; Muslim immigration to Europe, 103–04, 105; natural disaster outcomes, 35–37, 40; networking model, 150–51; prospects for voluntary changes in consumption, 42–43; Scenario outcomes, 19, 135–36, 139, 142, 143–45, 214–16; Scenerio outcomes, 161–62, 163–64, 165; technology adoption and diffusion, 41 See also Political life; Religious and spiritual attitudes and behaviors Somalia, 161–62 South Africa, 38 South and central America: effects of MOC collapse, 79; expected climate change effects, 71–72, 77; Scenario outcomes, 137–38; Scenario outcomes, 159; sensitivity to climate change effects, 75 Soviet Union Virgin Lands program, 33 Spain, 103–04 Stern, Nicholas, 15–16 Storm and extreme weather events: expected climate change effects, 75–77; recent shift in U.S climate change policies and, 200–01; Scenario outcomes, 68, 155–56, 160–61, 216–17 See also Floods; Hurricanes Sweden, 195 Syria, 105, 107, 141 Taylor, Maxwell, Technological innovation: to address climate change, 41, 42; alternative and sustainable fuels, 186–88; carbon capture and sequestration, 118–19, 184; in Chinese climate change program, 208; energy efficiency, 181–84; environmental considerations, 42; future prospects, 157; historical patterns, 41; investments in green technologies, 201; potential mitigation of climate change effects, 166–67, 217; prospects for climate change solutions in, 145–46; sociopolitical context, 41 Temperature, 19, 134; catastrophic climate change scenario, 19, 158–59, 169, 216; climate change projections, 18, 26, 69; effects of MOC collapse, 78, 79; effects per degree of increase, 86–89; geographic differences, 69, 98; heat-related mortality, 158–59; Scenario conditions, 19, 134, 169; seasonal patterns, 69 Terrorism: energy infrastructure vulnerability, 178–79; environmental issues linkage, 10, 171, 179–88; expected climate change effects in Africa, 102; nature of national security threat from, 19–20; threat of, 177 Thailand, 108 Thermohaline circulation See Meridional overturning circulation Thucydides, 35 Transportation infrastructure, 31, 32 Turkey, 38, 105–06, 139, 141 Ukraine, 117 United Kingdom, 194–95 United Nations, 4, 13, 121–22 United States: agricultural production, 137; Canada and, 138; China and, Index 114, 116; climate change implications for military planning and operations, 16–17, 175–76; effects of MOC collapse, 79; energy consumption, 116, 120; environmental intelligence network, 148–49; expected climate change effects, 71, 77; global perception of energy and climate change policies, 198; greenhouse gas emissions, 20, 191–92, 205; historical natural disasters, 29, 33, 34, 40, 41; Kyoto Protocol policies, 9, 10, 198, 199; migration effects of climate change, 99, 137–38, 176; political structure and functioning, 137; prospects for international collaboration in climate change response, 203–04; public climate change awareness and attitudes, 100, 198–99, 202, 203; recognition of security implications of climate and environmental issues, 5–7; role in global climate change response, 151–52, 200, 209, 221–22; role in international disaster relief, 123–25, 175, 221; Scenario outcomes, 136–37, 137–38; Scenario outcomes, 158, 159, 160, 161, 163–64, 174; sea level rise, 136, 221; significance of climate change threat, 20, 213–14; state governments, 137, 202–02; vulnerability to climate change effects, 53–54, 75, 98–99, 221; water supply and access, 136–37 237 Urinetown, The Musical, 155, 165–66 Uzbekistan, 118 Vaccinations and inoculations, 36–37 Venezuela, 109 Wahhabi sect, 178 Warner, John, 202–03 Washington, George, 36 Water supply and access: Chinese concerns, 112, 140, 206; climate change effects generally, 74; development assistance projects, 101; expected climate change effects, 104–07, 112, 175, 218–19; future of Middle East, 105; international diplomacy over, 39–40; privatization of resources, 143; risk of armed conflict over, 105; Scenario outcomes, 19, 66, 134, 136–37, 140–41, 143; Scenario outcomes, 68, 159–60; seal level rise effects, 61–66 Wells, H G., 156–57 Wild, M., 75 Wirth, Timothy, 7, Woolsey, James, World Economic Forum, 11 World Meteorological Organization, Worldwatch Institute, Wright, Lawrence, 178 Yang Jiechi, 205 Zimbabwe, 41 Zubrin, Robert, 173 .. .CLIMATIC CATACLYSM K URT M C AMPBELL EDITOR CLIMATIC CATACLYSM THE FOREIGN POLICY AND NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE... references and index ISBN 978-0-8157-1332-6 (cloth : alk paper) Climatic changes—Government policy Climatic changes—Forecasting Climatic changes—Social aspects International relations—Forecasting... writing from the Brookings Institution Press Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Climatic cataclysm : the foreign policy and national security implications of climate change / Kurt